Explore every episode of the podcast Hedged

Prairie harvest is running well behind normal pace. Saskatchewan at 11% complete versus a 24% five-year average, Alberta at 5.6% versus 15.2%. Canola in both provinces is barely off the field. South of the border, U.S. winter wheat has wrapped with strong protein numbers while spring wheat and durum harvest continues. And in Washington, EPA is weighing a supplemental biofuel rule that could offset a bigger-than-expected round of small refinery exemptions. Wheat is going parabolic with the Russia-Ukraine conflict not showing any signs of easying.

Saskatchewan harvest sits at just 4% — well behind the 5- and 10-year averages, though still ahead of last year’s pace. Q breaks down mixed early yield reports, a frost-free 15-day forecast, and US spring wheat progress (40% harvested, strong protein numbers). Two pieces of EPA news on small refinery exemptions and a possible RFS compliance extension hit soy oil and canola hard on Friday. Plus: European and US Commitment of Traders data showing aggressive fund buying across canola, corn, and soybeans, standout COPA crush numbers pointing to a potentially record capacity year, and a look at where canola and wheat closed the week.

Fresh crop condition reports out of SK, AB, and MB, a new round of EPA biofuel exemptions, and a head-and-shoulders setup forming on canola — plus this week’s COT data and a strong opening COPA crush number that’s pulling against the bearish technical and seasonal picture.

This week: canola gives back its run toward multi-year highs on a Friday pullback, while wheat sees a full round trip as Black Sea tensions spike and then unwind on Turkey mediation headlines. Plus — the EPA’s small refinery exemption ruling due by August 4th and what it means for RIN-driven canola demand, the latest COT positioning from the funds, a look at Europe’s heat-hit crop via the JRC MARS Bulletin, and full crop condition rundowns from Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta.

This week: Trump’s new 50% tariffs on Canadian goods (ag mostly spared), what the EU’s biofuels outlook means for canola demand, a telling inversion in canola and spring wheat spreads.

Russia loses its ability to move grain through the Sea of Azov, and wheat responds with its sharpest rally in weeks. Q covers the escalating Black Sea disruption, a Corn Belt heat and flash-drought scare building fast, and fresh Chinese soybean buying on the back of a tariff framework deal. Plus: NOPA's June crush smashes estimates with a record soybean oil draw, D4 RIN generation keeps climbing past the 2026 biofuel standard, and grains get love from the managed money cohort.

Q breaks down a volatile week for the grain markets. Canola whipsaws nearly $50/tonne in under two weeks as headlines outrun the fundamentals. USDA's July WASDE drops the smallest U.S. wheat crop since 1970, tightening corn stocks despite a big crop, while soybean exports absorb higher production. Meanwhile, Ukraine's escalating strikes on Crimea and the Kerch Strait threaten Russia's Azov grain export corridor — adding a fresh layer of support under global wheat. Plus: what to watch next week as U.S. CPI and the Bank of Canada's rate decision hit the calendar

Q breaks down a busy week for the grain markets. Tuesday's dual data drop delivered a record Canadian canola acreage number from StatsCan — 23.4 million acres — alongside a surprise cut to U.S. wheat plantings, the lowest in USDA records going back to 1919. But the record canola figure comes with an asterisk: the survey closed before June's historic rains. With Saskatchewan reporting six per cent of acres flooded out or unseeded and damage mounting in Manitoba and Alberta, the gap between planted and harvested acres could be one of the widest in years. Plus: the CUSMA joint review kicked off July 1 without a U.S. commitment to renew — what that means (and doesn't mean) for grain movement. A weather market summer is setting up.