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🌾 China Eyes US Wheat: State-owned grain trader Cofco has inquired about buying US soft red winter wheat for delivery next year, following the September Trump–Xi tariff agreement. China has bought more than half of its 25mmt soybean pledge but still hasn’t purchased any US corn or wheat this marketing year, and its own wheat supplies remain ample after another bumper harvest.
🚜 Ag Industry Headwinds: AGCO cut its annual sales outlook, with its CEO saying global farm machinery demand is at its weakest in more than a decade, though the company sees a possible recovery in 2027. Bunge held its earnings guidance but expects lower soybean crush profits, while proposed increases in biofuel blending requirements offer a potential bright spot for corn and soybean demand.
📈 Strong Export Sales: Net soybean sales hit 2.6mmt (95 mil bu) for the week ending October 22, with China the top buyer, and corn sales came in at 1.3mmt (51 mil bu), led by Mexico. Wheat finally had a strong week at 849,800mt (31 mil bu), beating expectations, with the Philippines as the largest buyer.
☀️ Drought Update: Warm, dry weather worsened drought across parts of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri, though it kept harvest moving at a good pace. Scattered rain improved conditions in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Oklahoma, while 50% of winter wheat areas are still in drought.
🤖 AI and Crop Insurance: A new private insurance product will use AI to assess field-level risk, potentially saving corn and soybean farmers $10–$15 per acre on supplemental coverage. Launching in 15 Corn Belt states next year, it could lift total coverage up to 90% and may reward conservation practices like no-till and cover crops.🛒 USDA $472.5M Purchase: The USDA plans to buy $472.5 million in US farm goods, from lentils and almonds to pork and dairy, for charitable food networks and nutrition programs. Secretary Brooke Rollins framed the move as part of the administration’s effort to put farmers first and advance its Make America Healthy Again agenda.
