Explore every episode of the podcast GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial; institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1. The September FOMC - hike or no hike?
2. What do you make of the recent selloff in bonds? At what level will yields start to damage equities?
3. How do you assess growth prospects outside the US? Are you still bullish Europe? Worried about Japan? What about China - recent data have been weak

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Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial; institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1. Busy week of central bank meetings - what were the takeaways?
2. What does a world without forward guidance look like
3. When will this cycle end? 

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial; institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1. Are Fed hikes still a possibility given the latest data?
2. AI stocks look jittery - are we close to the end of the boom?
3. Is it time to turn bullish on UK bonds and equities?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1. Do you believe Kevin Warsh's hawkish start as Fed chair?
2. What do you make of the latest BIS warning about an AI crash? How much damage would this inflict on the global economy?
3. Why is the market ignoring this latest bout of UK political instability?

3-4 Fed Rate Hikes next year.

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) What would make you turn more bullish on AI?

2) Which central bank is going to hike the most?

3) Is your US reacceleration thesis back on track?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1. Are we in a bubble?
2. Is it reasonable to expect just one or two hikes from the world's central banks?
3. Should we be alarmed by the recent selloff in govt bonds?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1. Strait still closed: how long until this matters again?
2. Odds for a late-90s style meltup in US stocks?
3. Has the UK's latest political crisis dashed any hope for an economic revival?
4. What will Xi and Trump talk about?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1. Still no Iran resolution - are we close to a tipping point?
2. Powell's legacy as Fed chair? What will Warsh do? And what about the ECB and other central banks?
3. Is US exceptionalism coming back - is the dollar about to rip?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1. Crisis over - Equities back to all-time highs. Is the stock market right?
2. What are the longer-term implications that markets might be missing?
3. When the disruption to energy markets blows over, will we be back to rate cuts or what will Central Banks do?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1. Have your views on Iran changed from 2 weeks ago?
2. What is the best historical parallel? Passing EnergyShock? Stagflation? Recession?
3. Are the Europeans seriously going to hike rates?
4. Is Gold no longer a safe haven?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1. Has the war in Iran upended your reacceleration thesis?
2. How will central banks respond - is this like 2022, when they all hiked aggressively? 
3. Will recent market moves - strong USD, RoW underperformance - reverse if Trump TACOs?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) Does every AI scenario now lead to disaster?

2) Can we stop worrying about tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling?

3) Is the global monetary cycle now turning?

Sell US and Buy RoW

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1.     What did you make of the latest US jobs report?

2.     How will Warsh change the Fed?

3.     Can the "anything but US tech" trade continue - is this bullish for RoW, and especially for EM?

And Japan Vs MMT

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1. What are the lessons from Trump at Davos? Should we just ignore his chaos now?

2. Hassett seems to have dropped out - would Warsh or Rieder be as aggressive in pushing lower rates?

3. To quote Robin Brooks, “Is Japan where MMT goes to die?" Does this matter for global markets?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1.     What are our new year resolutions?

2.     What do you make of the latest Fed-Trump spat- does this change things?

3.     Will Trump's affordability drive work?

4.     Can productivity revival save US from inflation in 2026?

Growth and Inflation Acceleration far above consensus

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1.   What did you make of the Fed decision - is it providing backdoor financing?

2.  What are your big non-consensus ideas for 2026?

3.  How much does the choice of Fed chair change the outlook - and who do you prefer, Warsh or Hassett?

Fed Cut, AI and the UK Budget

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) Is a Fed rate cut now ON? What should we make of therecent FOMC dissent?

2) How is AI actually affecting the economy?

3) What do you make of the recent budgets in Japan andthe UK? What do the different market responses tell us about global markets?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) Are you more worried by strains in US money markets or equity markets?

(2) Will Trump's tariff rebates stoke inflation? 

(3) How should central banks respond to the AI boom?

Multiple Rate Hikes Next Year?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) Fed Reaction - what happens next?

2) Is the K-shaped economy sustainable? Are you worried about credit cockroaches?

3) How is the world looking outside the US? Is the bull case for non-US assets still intact?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) Trade War Escalation: Will markets care?

2) No Recession this year - How/When does this cycle end?

3) What could burst the AI bubble?

Immigration vs Inflation and AI vs Recession.

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) Does the government shutdown matter?

2) Would the US already be in recession without AI?

3) Are deportations inflationary or deflationary?

When it bursts, will it crash the economy?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) Is the Labour market starting to crack?

2) Are bonds and equities saying completely different things about the macro outlook?

3) Is AI a bubble (and could it crash the economy)?

Or do we get a major Fiscal Crisis?

*Apologies for Freya's audio quality today, her internet cut out halfway through recording, and she needed to switch to her phone

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) Why did Powell blink?

2) When will markets care about Fed capture?

3) Are we on the brink of a fiscal crisis (again)?

Has Trump won H1?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) Is Trump winning?

2) Why did central banks turn woke?

3) Is US monetary policy even restrictive with stocks at ATHs?

How would markets react?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1.    What happens if Trump fires Powell?

2.    Is tariff inflation finally showing up?

3.    Are we still seeing policy stimulus in the RoW, or is a TACO leading to complacency there too?

Happy 4th of July to our US listeners!

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1.    Why are investors punishing the dollar and not the S&P?

2.    Big jobs number. No Fed cut until November?

3.    Are we now in a regime of fiscal dominance?

Will Israel-Iran conflict derail markets?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) Market impact of Middle East conflict? 

2) Still no tariff inflation: can the Fed cut now?

3) Are rising JGB yields a threat to global markets?

Are markets all Bulled up on TACO? S&P 500 all-time highs?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) Does TACO trade mean S&P 500 all-time highs are back on the menu?

2) Why were bond yields so high/rising?

3.) Trump's expansionary budget = fiscal crisis, either US or RoW?

Dollar Death or Dollar Decline?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) US-China deal - is the crisis over?

2) Dollar vs the World. Extended Weakness or End of Reserve Currency?

3) Why is the Fed so reluctant to cut? Is it playing politics?

Empty shelves and sudden stops?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:

1) Did the markets successfully face down Trump?

2) Could we get a sudden stop in imports from China - what would this do to US economy?

3) Is sustained US dollar weakness even possible if the US remains the world's reserve currency?

And the End of US Outperformance

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer three of the top current client questions

This week:

1) Damage already been done? Recession now inevitable?

2) Who blinks first - China or the US?

3) Where are we going? What will the world look like by the end of Trump's term?

Global Recession and is the US now Uninvestable?

Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer three of the top current client questions

This week:

1. Is the US now Uninvestable?
2. Should we expect a Global Recession?
3. What should investors do now?

Dario bought the dip, what now?

Andrew Slazenger (andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer three of the top current client questions

This week:

1.    Can the stock market decline CAUSE a recession?

2.    Can the Fed still cut if tariffs do happen?

3.    Will German stimulus make the ECB hawkish and how will bonds cope?

Dario's Short US/Long RoW has done well, closing time?

Andrew Slazenger (andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer three of the top current client questions

This week:

1. S&P 500 correction. Is it over or just getting started?
2. Is the US on the brink of Recession?
3. The end of US exceptionalism?

And how the German Elections will alter the entire European growth picture

Andrew Slazenger (andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer three of the top current client questions

This week:

1) Will there be a Mar-a-Lago accord?

2) German Elections, European and Global impact?

3) Will Dario's Short US/ Long RoW continue to work?

Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish answer three of the top current client questions This week:

1.    Already time to fade the Trump chaos?

2.   Are we about to see a big monetary policy decoupling?

3.   Could the UK end up with an IMF bailout?

Dario Perkins, MD Global Macro, and Freya Beamish, Chief Economist debate the three key client questions:

1.    Someone at Davos said the business cycle doesn't matter anymore. Should that terrify us?

2.    What have we learnt from Trump so far?

3.    Is the US exceptionalism trade still right?

Dario Perkins, MD Global Macro, and Freya Beamish, Chief Economist debate the top three client questions:

1. What is driving the carnage in bonds and will it continue?

2. What have we leant about Trump 2.0 since the election?

3. Are markets right to give up on the prospect of China stimulus?

Bullish consensus spells trouble? Any Bears left? And Freya tries out her Scottish accent

Dario Perkins, MD Global Macro, and Freya Beamish, Chief Economist debate the top three client questions:

1.   2025 outlook consensus: Why do they all agree?

2.   Where have all the bears gone?

3.   What's the most bearish take on 2025 and why don't you agree?

This week we cover:

1.    What can Trump do to lean on the Fed?

2.    How much confidence can we take from Bessent's appointment?

3.    What's the bull case for Europe inTrump World?

Trump vs the Fed. How serious a problem will inflation be and is this the final tipping point for neo-liberalism? Dario Perkins, MD Global Macro, and Freya Beamish, Chief Economist debate the top three client questions:

1.    How inflationary will Trump be?

2.   Can the Fed retain its independence?

3.    Is this the end of Neo-liberalism?

Fiscal crisis moment for the U.S? Strong dollar in 2025? Is austerity back for the U.K?

Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish debate three of the top current questions from our client base. This week we cover:

1. Is the US facing a Liz Truss moment given that we have two candidates planning to spend like drunken sailors

2. 2025: The year of tariffs and a strong dollar?

3. Will the UK budget next week take us back to austerity, or can Reeves fiddle the rules?

Recession fears over, inflation fears back and China equity rally here to stay?

Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish debate three of the top current questions from our client base. This week we cover:

1) Did Friday's report kill recession fears?

2) Could inflation make an unexpected comeback?

3) Will this China equity rally die without fiscal stimulus?

Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish answer three of the top current questions from our clients. This week we cover:

1) Are markets right to react so bullishly to the big Fed rate cut?

2) Do we still need to worry about the Japan carry trade?

3) Is China as bad as it looks? What does this mean for Row?

Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish answer three of the top current questions from our clients:

1) How close are we to a US recession?

2) Will the Fed cut 25 or 50 bps? Will cuts do any good anyway?

3) What is going on in global manufacturing? Is there a real danger for the global economy brewing?