Global Trade Deciphered explores global trade and the economy concerning geopolitics and topical news events, featuring expert analysis from leading world-class guests. Hosted by Justin Hayden Miller, a global trade advisor and strategist, former international trade and tax partner at a top-tier European law firm and former senior leader at the Big-4. Essential listening for business leaders, policymakers, and anyone curious about international business and trade policy.
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In this exclusive episode of Global Trade Deciphered, Justin Hayden Miller is joined by Chad Bown, former Chief Economist at the U.S. State Department under Biden-Harris and Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Soumaya Keynes, leading FT columnist and former Economics Editor at The Economist, and
They dissect the real mechanics of trade wars in 2026: President Trump’s tariffs on almost everyone, the deeper China challenge, the breakdown of the WTO rules-based system, and their view why China’s non-market subsidies and state-owned enterprises creates issues for dispute settlement.
The conversation examines trade strategy through the lens of real wars — defence, logistics, vulnerabilities, stockpiling — and the attack phase of tariffs and controls. They explore companies as reluctant or obedient “soldiers” in these conflicts, Europe’s simultaneous battles with Chinese EV and solar floods alongside U.S. tariff pressure, and the evidence on whether tariffs actually deliver the terms-of-trade gains economic theory once promised.
Soumaya Keynes — great-great-niece of John Maynard Keynes — reflects on how geopolitics is forcing economics to evolve, citing new research by Christopher Clayton and Jesse Schrager on supply-chain concentration and weaponised dependencies.
Chad Bown draws on White House Situation Room experience to test what a smarter, China-focused strategy might look like.
Essential listening for business leaders, policymakers and supply-chain strategists who need to understand the new rules of global trade before the next tariff headline lands.
Published by Simon & Schuster, How to Win a Trade War is out today.
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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
EU Killed De Minimis: The Death of Cheap Parcels from July 2026
As of July 1st, the €150 de minimis threshold has been abolished. In this episode, recorded just prior to the changes, I break down exactly what the new rules mean - also laying out what the rules were before the change - and why this is important.
*****
From 1 July 2026 the EU is scrapping its €150 customs de minimis threshold. Cheap parcels just died. Every low-value package from outside Europe now faces a new flat-rate €3 customs duty per product type — plus France’s extra €2 “"taxe sur les petits colis" (TPC) and a potential patchwork of national fees.
In this episode I explain exactly why the EU followed Trump’s lead to abolish De Minimus, how Temu and Shein gamed the old system with 91% of small parcels from China, and why even experts can’t keep up with the constant rule changes.
The Paradox Bomb: Rules designed to make trade fairer and crush e-commerce fraud are actually making everything more complicated, more expensive, and potentially hurting the very businesses and consumers they were meant to protect.
So what for business leaders? Higher friction costs, a massive incentive to shift to EU fulfilment centres instead of direct shipping from the UK, US or Asia. Listen to the podcast for more details.
If you send or receive small packages to Europe — e-commerce, cross-border gifts, online shopping — this is essential listening.
Keywords / Tags: EU de minimis 2026, end of €150 threshold, low value packages customs, low value consignments, small parcels EU, customs duties July 2026, Temu, Shein , EU rules, e-commerce imports Europe, cheap parcels, EU customs changes 2026, global trade podcast.
IMPORTANT NOTE: This episode does not constitute advice in any form. Get expert advice from an expert, specific to your circumstances, before relying on any information contained in this episode. Rules, legislation, practice guidance and thresholds can also change.
The content of this podcast is intended only to provide an information resource of interest and does not constitute legal, tax, business, or financial advice of any kind. Should you require advice, engage an appropriately qualified person. Views expressed are my own.
Digital Tariffs 2026: WTO E-Commerce Moratorium Dies – Customs Duties on Netflix, SaaS & Data Now Possible | Fireside Chat
📌 Digital Tariffs 2026: WTO E-Commerce Moratorium Dies – Customs Duties on Netflix, SaaS & Data Now Possible | Fireside Chat
The 28-year WTO ban on customs duties for electronic transmissions has just lapsed. For the first time since 1998, countries can now tax downloads, streaming (Netflix, Spotify), e-books, SaaS subscriptions, cloud data transfers and every other electronic flow — exactly like physical goods.
In this relaxed Fireside Chat, Justin Hayden Miller breaks down:
• Why this is “MEGA” for businesses and consumers (and why the US and EU fought so hard to keep it) • The new patchwork of digital border rules that compliance teams will have to track • Why this changes everything we thought we knew about customs in the 21st century • Plus: latest Hormuz crisis update, aversion therapy strategy, Suez & Panama chokepoints, UNCTAD trade figures, and what it all means for global supply chains
A genuine “Paradox Bomb” episode: in the age of seamless digital globalisation, the rules designed to keep data borderless have just crumbled.
🎙️ Fireside Chat format — no script, straight talk from the armchair.
Send Justin a voice message or fan mail directly from this episode page (link at the top of the description) — he reads and replies to every one.
The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax or financial advice. Always consult a qualified professional for your specific situation.
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*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM
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Tintin’s Black Gold Warning: Hormuz, Kharg Island, Red Sea Houthi & $150 Shock
Tintin warned us in the 1950s. In 2026 the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz are exploding just like the comic – and $150 oil is no longer science fiction.
In this episode I crack open Hergé’s Tintin: Land of Black Gold and show how its 1950s story of sabotaged tankers, exploding fuel and Middle East intrigue is playing out in real time in the 2026 Red Sea Houthi crisis and Hormuz oil shock.
Here’s what you’ll hear:
• The eerie parallels between the comic’s desert kingdom of Khemed and today’s Red Sea Houthi attacks, Iran tensions, tanker routes and underground facilities • Why a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure or fresh Red Sea shipping disruption isn’t just a shipping headache – it’s a global supply chain shock that could slam trade balances, ignite inflation and hand the next recession its starter’s pistol • How the 1970s oil crises (the ones that forced Europe to invent summer time) are already repeating in the 2026 Middle East oil crisis • The demand-side playbook smart governments and businesses can use tomorrow – no lectures, just pick-and-choose moves that actually work while everyone else waits for calm seas
Hergé never wrote a sequel to Land of Black Gold. But the sequel to today’s Red Sea and Hormuz events is unfolding every morning in the news.
If you’re a business leader, policymaker or anyone tracking energy security, oil prices and global trade disruption in 2026, hit play now.
Global Trade Deciphered – decoding what matters before it hits balance sheets.
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Strait of Hormuz Crisis 2026: Customs Compliance Survival Guide with Maersk's William Petty [TOP EXPERT INTERVIEW]
In this episode we discuss how businesses might handle the compliance chaos of the Strait of Hormuz blockade—ships stalled, oil prices soaring, supply chains crumbling etc.. How are businesses dodging compliance pitfalls amid this geopolitical storm? Maersk's innovation Lead and expert, William Petty, reveals insider strategies.
Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Seafarers at risk, vessels rerouted—what's the real knock-on for your global trade ops?
COVID parallels: Bottlenecks, piracy, Suez flashbacks—are we in for another black swan era?
Compliance wake-up call: Why your supply chain, logistics, and customs teams must sync now to slash delays and costs.
Non-traditional regs exploding: CBAM carbon taxes, EU deforestation rules, US forced labor bans—ready to track geolocated trees or cotton spinners?
Tariffs
Trade fragmentation frenzy: Bilateral deals, sectoral carve-outs—navigating the spider's web of evolving tariffs and borders.
AI and tech lifelines: Shrinking the haystack with data analytics—spot misclassifications, prioritize 80/20 risks, unlock duty savings.
Digital product passports revolution: Real-time data sharing for friction-free borders—could this transform your imports forever?
2026 trends alert: UK CBAM incoming, forced labor regs spreading—opportunities in digital corridors or more compliance headaches?
William Petty, Maersk's Trade and Customs Consulting innovation Lead with 20+ years from World Economic Forum to global alliances, joins host Justin Hayden Miller to decipher it all.
Global trade pros: Is your business resilient enough? Tune in for actionable hooks on supply chain disruptions, customs compliance strategies, and logistics innovation. #StraitOfHormuzCrisis #CustomsCompliance #SupplyChainDisruptions #MaerskInsights #CBAM #DigitalTrade #GlobalTradePodcast
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Iran Hormuz Crisis escalates and is now closed: US-Israel strikes trigger Iranian retaliation, IRGC warnings halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply at risk). Brent crude prices surging, with analysts warning $100-150+ if disruptions persist. Major carriers (Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) suspend transits—shipping chaos compounds delays and fuel costs.
At the same time, Trump's defiant response to February Supreme Court ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs: 10% global import duty under Section 122 (effective Feb 24, 150 days max), with indications to hike to 15%. Shadow trade wars emerge via licensing schemes, potential fees, and workarounds bypassing oversight—adding volatility to already strained supply chains.
Host Justin Hayden Miller (global trade strategist, ex-Big 4/ top law firm) unpacks the paradox: independent crises amplifying each other. Hear his prescient Nov 2025 warning (Episode 15 clip) on fuel spikes + tariffs—now playing out.
Essential for business leaders, importers, CFOs facing compounded risks. We're in a gale—prepare for the hurricane.
Disclaimer: Not legal/tax/financial/business advice—consult qualified professionals concerning your specific circumstances.
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February 20, 2026: The U.S. Supreme Court rules President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for tariffs is illegal. No presidential authority for tariffs under IEEPA—Congress holds taxing power. Invalidates 10% baseline global tariffs, higher targeted duties on China, Mexico, Canada, EU, Japan, South Korea, and "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs.
International rade lawyer Jeremy Page (Page-Fura PC, Chicago) gives expert analysis: Why the Court rejected IEEPA as a tariff/emergency tool, refund possibilities via Court of International Trade: alternatives (Section 232, 301, etc.).
The episode discusses the consolidated US Supreme Court cases Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc.
Why this Supreme Court tariff case is historic
IEEPA basics: No tariffs mentioned, revenue power stays with Congress
Trump's IEEPA uses: Fentanyl, immigration, deficits, Liberation Day
Court: IEEPA Tariffs aren't authorized
Unwinding tariffs & country responses
Importer refunds? CIT role & injunction questions
6-3 vote details (Roberts' leading opinion)
Plan B: Other tariff statutes explored
Essential for importers, businesses, lawyers tracking U.S. trade policy. Subscribe for more global trade insights!
Thumbnail Photo: Supreme Court. Author: Quercusvirginiana. Photograph made available under the Creative Commons Attribution CC01.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.
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*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM
or contact us by email at
Gold Surging Past $5,000 in 2026: De-Dollarization & Risks of War
Gold has surged past $5,000 per ounce in 2026, hitting highs above $5,600 in January. What is driving this dramatic rally—and what does it signal for global trade and financial global order?
Justin Hayden Miller breaks down the key forces behind gold's explosive move, including surging safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, and growing discussions around de-dollarization. The episode examines renewed calls in Germany, Poland, and Italy to repatriate gold reserves from US vaults—prompted by geopolitical strains in transatlantic relations under the second Trump administration and concerns over asset risks.
Drawing on historical patterns of gold accumulation and movements ahead of major conflicts, the discussion explores whether these developments indicate eroding trust in the dollar as the dominant reserve currency and potential fractures in global alliances.
Key subjects covered:
Germany's push to bring home gold held in the US
Broader European repatriation debates and trust issues
Historical precedents of gold hoarding before military conflicts
The paradox of gold's heightened role in today's free-floating market versus the classical gold standard era
BRICS nations' hedging against sanctions/trade pressures
Implications for dollar dominance, global trade finance, supply chains, and multipolar alliances.
Essential listening for business leaders, policymakers, investors, and analysts monitoring geopolitics, reserve currencies, and international trade dynamics.
Keywords : gold price 2026, $XAUUSD, gold $5000, de-dollarization, gold repatriation Germany, dollar reserve currency, geopolitics gold, central bank gold, US Europe relations Trump, global trade risks, gold surge 2026.
Micro-clip of Marco Rubio leaving for Munich Security Summit: C-Span
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Mark Carney’s Davos Rupture: Why Global Trade Rules Are Dead (And What Comes Next)
Justin Hayden Miller breaks down Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's explosive Davos speech at the World Economic Forum. From tariffs weaponized as leverage to supply chains exposed as vulnerabilities, explore how great powers are accelerating chaos in international commerce. Is this a rupture or a salvageable transition? Miller unpacks the geopolitics with sharp insights, drawing on analogies from science and history to make sense of the turmoil.
Key Topics Explored:
The end of the rules-based international order: Carney's blunt take on economic integration turning into coercion.
Middle powers' survival strategies: Building alliances, strategic autonomy in energy, food, and critical minerals.
Tariffs and trade wars: Reactions from figures like François Hollande on balancing power with the US, plus insights from US trade attorney Peter Quinter on free trade's role in global peace.
Geopolitical risks: From EU's anti-coercion tools to the prisoner's dilemma in modern trade negotiations.
Forward-looking trade shifts: Multiplex alliances, resource cartels, and the race for critical materials like copper.
Featuring audio snippets from Carney's iconic address and a voiceover of François Hollande's advice concerning European trade policy regarding the US.
In this episode of Global Trade Deciphered, host Justin Hayden Miller discusses and analyses the newly signed EU-Mercosur trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay).
Signed on January 17, 2026, after 26 years of negotiations, this landmark deal eliminates tariffs on over 90% of goods, boosts access to critical minerals like lithium, and covers investment, intellectual property, and sustainable development. But is it Europe's strategic move to counter U.S. trade policies under Trump?
Justin analyzes the geopolitical implications, including how U.S. foreign policy is pushing nations toward closer ties with China, as seen in Paraguay's president's remarks on strategic partnerships. He explores farmer protests in France and Europe, opposition from countries like France, Poland, and Hungary, and the challenges of ratification—including potential vetoes, European Parliament approval, and even a possible European Court of Justice review.
Key discussions include:
Tariff reductions on industrial products, cars, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, wine, and agriculture (with quotas for sensitive items like beef).
Safeguards for EU standards on labor, environment, and deforestation.
Broader trends: Deglobalization, anti-globalization protests echoing 1999, and predictions for 2026 global trade shifts.
Audio clips from Paraguay's President Santiago Peña, U.S. President Donald Trump, and EU President Ursula von der Leyen.
This episode is essential for understanding 2026 trade policies, EU-Mercosur impacts on global supply chains, Trump tariffs' ripple effects, and the future of international business amid farmer revolts and geopolitical pivots.
Timestamps: 00:02 – Intro: Arctic Tensions & Episode Overview 03:11 – Paraguay President Peña on China Partnerships 03:38 – Trump's Policies Pushing Allies Toward China 12:15 – Trump on EU Challenges12:26 – EU Decision-Making Complexities14:33 – Von der Leyen on Trade Growth Estimates14:51 – Analyzing the "Substantial" 9 Billion Euro Projection15:10 – Von der Leyen on Investments in Cars & Chemicals15:38 – Putting Trade Figures in PerspectiveEnd – Predictions: Ratification Rollercoaster & Anti-Trump Deals
Global Trade Deciphered, a podcast by Justin Hayden Miller - Stats, Episodes and Rankings - My Podcast Data
Subscribe to Global Trade Deciphered for unfiltered briefings on the policies, trends and geopolitics reshaping global trade. Share with anyone who’s ever cursed at a parcel notification.
If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts for more unfiltered analysis on global trade, geopolitics, tariffs, Davos insights, Mark Carney, World Economic Forum, trade policy, critical minerals, supply chain vulnerabilities, and international relations. Share with your network and join the conversation!
If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
Hosted by Justin Hayden Miller, a Paris-based global trade advisor and strategist with 25+ years of experience, former partner at a top-tier European law firm, and senior leader in Big-4 international trade and tax practices. Global Trade Deciphered explores global trade, geopolitics, and the economy with expert insights for business leaders, policymakers, and trade enthusiasts.
Reference press articles mentioned during the episode:
About the Host Justin Hayden Miller advises multinational corporations on customs, tariffs, and trade strategy. With deep expertise in international business, he deciphers complex global trends for leaders worldwide.
Thanks for listening—rate, review, and share to support the show!
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If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.
*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
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