This episode of Global Security Briefing explores NATO's interest in China and the Indo-Pacific amid ongoing security challenges in Europe.

At last month’s NATO summit in Washington, DC, China was identified as a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s war against Ukraine. It was also noted that China ‘continues to pose systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security’.

Many argue that the principal need is for NATO to concentrate on Europe. This is not just because of the Russo-Ukrainian war, but also because the US is focusing on China as its principal adversary, which will likely lead to Washington shifting more of the burden for European security to European allies. The construction of a ‘European pillar of NATO’ that can deter Russia is already a tall order.

Is it realistic for Europeans to get involved in security issues on the other side of the world on top of that? And why are Asian countries interested in being linked more closely to NATO? This week, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security, to answer these questions and more.

This episode is brought to you as part of a research initiative at RUSI that looks at evolving transatlantic cooperation on China supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Concluding our series on how the UK’s new Labour government is approaching key foreign policy questions, we turn to the Middle East.

It is in the Middle East that Labour’s ‘progressive realist’ foreign policy will be most tested – especially in the context of the Israel-Palestine conflict. 

Signalling the importance of the Middle East to the new government, Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Israel and the Palestinian Territories just over a week after Labour’s election victory.

The UK’s distinct regional profile has faded in recent years as London has approached the Middle East in broad alignment with the US and focused on concluding trade deals rather than pursuing high-level diplomatic engagements. Will the UK under a Labour government seek to carve out a more distinct regional approach and play a more prominent role in the Middle East? Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security, and Dr Michael Stephens, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, to answer this and more.

This episode discusses the emergence of ‘counter-West’ groupings and how they fit within – and are seeking to shape – the wider global order.

In 2023 we ran a series of episodes focusing on the Russia–China relationship, the growing linkages to Iran and Venezuela and to North Korea's emergence as an international actor, as well as efforts to forge the BRICS association into a larger non-Western organisation.

While Western countries continue to stand behind the idea of a comprehensive, rules-based order built upon common norms, laws and institutions, these concepts are being contested by academics, politicians and public figures and are no longer accepted as automatically valid in large parts of the world.

Host Neil Melvin is joined by Simon Rynn, Research Fellow for African Security at RUSI, and Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security at RUSI, to discuss what can be learnt from ongoing or latent conflicts that appear to pit Western actors and norms against challengers.

With Vladimir Putin claiming yet another victory in Russia’s recent national elections, we examine his tenure and what the future has in store.

While Putin’s election victory was always a certainty, such political exercises involving mass engagement efforts are complex and potentially risky operations for authoritarian leaders.

At the age of 71, and with a hold on power now lasting until at least 2030, how is Putin trying to justify his continued leadership? And how can a successor emerge in this stifling political environment? In this episode, host Neil Melvin asks Professor David Lewis from the University of Exeter to answer these questions.

With the rise of China and the centrality of the Indo-Pacific to economic and geopolitical affairs, we look at the challenges faced by governments in Europe and North America.

A history of solidarity and common approaches to dealing with threats affecting allies across the Atlantic might lead to the assumption that a transatlantic strategy and its supporting institutions would naturally emerge with regards to China. Shared commitments to universal human rights and adherence to a rules-based global order should also drive a convergence of policies. However, a variety of national political and trade considerations drive Europeans and North Americans in somewhat different directions when dealing with China.

On this episode of GSB, host Neil Melvin is joined by Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, and Andrew Cainey, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow and Founding Director of the UK National Committee on China, to discuss their latest research paper which tackles important questions such as: how much transatlantic cooperation on policy towards China is happening; why has it been difficult for allies on both sides of the Atlantic to agree on working together; and what do the differences between the Trump and Biden administrations’ approaches tell us about prospects for the future? This episode is brought to you as part of a RUSI project supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

As we mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we consider the implications of what has turned into a protracted conflict.

Russia has seized back the initiative in the war, due at least partly to ampler supplies of ammunition and drones. While Ukraine continues to achieve important tactical victories against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the land and air campaign is increasingly characterised by Russian pressure and territorial gains.

There are also growing doubts about the ability of the Euro-Atlantic community to adequately resource the war, with acute concern about the deadlocked debate in the US Congress over military support for Ukraine.

As we enter the third year of the war, it is likely the fighting will stretch well into the future. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Hanna Shelest, Security Studies Programme Director at the think tank Ukrainian Prism, and Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Chairman of the Ukrainian think tank the Centre for Defence Strategies and a former defence minister of Ukraine. Where is the war heading? And can Western unity on Ukraine hold?

The Global Security Briefing takes a forward look at how this conflict is shaping the region.

Before the 7th of October, when Hamas’ unprecedented attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza, the Middle East appeared to have largely fallen off the list of priorities for Western policymakers. After decades of intense – and often unsuccessful and politically unpopular – involvement in the Middle East, Western governments were glad to pay less attention to the region.But the Middle East is now back to the top of the agenda for governments in London, Washington and other European capitals.

There are long-term strategic challenges to think about: finding a way forward in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; dealing with Iran’s nuclear programme; Iran’s proliferation of missiles and drones across the region; as well as cultivation of proxy forces. And as always, the critical task is the development of a more sustainable and stable regional order.

In this edition of the Global Security Briefing, Neil is joined by Dr Tobias Borck from RUSI and Dr Julie Norman from University College London to look at how Israel’s war in Gaza is evolving and where the risks of wider regional escalation stand now.

As the US electoral cycle ramps up, we consider how they may shape the security landscape of the Americas in years to come.

Despite Washington’s historical engagement in security cooperation with countries like Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, and Chile, US-Latin American relations are not trouble-free.. Positive views of the US have declined, partly due to the emergence of new localplayers who seek alliances with Russia, China and Iran. Could President Biden revitalize relations with its southern neighbours if re-elected this year? And how might the return of Donald Trump influence Washington’s policies towards Latin America?

In this episode of GSB, host Neil Melvin is joined by Brian Fonseca, Director of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University and Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow for Latin American Security at RUSI, to explore the dynamics of US-Latin American relations.What drives the US and other countries such as the UK to invest in security and diplomacy efforts in the Americas? And how is Washington currently dealing with China policy in the Americas, and its economic, scientific, and security prospects in the region?

As we welcome the new year, the International Security team at RUSI reviews the biggest geo-political events of the past 12 months and discusses what we can expect from 2024 in this two-part holiday special.

What was foreseen, and what came unexpectedly in global security developments during the past year? And how have security events altered the trajectory of various regions? Host Neil Melvin is joined by Carlos Solar, Simon Rynn, and Philip Shetler-Jones to discuss how the past 12 months have shaped Latin America, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific, and what we can expect during the coming year.

As the year draws to a close, the International Security team at RUSI reviews the biggest geo-political events of the year in this two-part holiday special.

From the ongoing war in Ukraine to the crisis in Gaza, 2023 has seen some major global events. But how did 2023 pan out when compared to what was expected at the beginning of the year? What was foreseen and what has been unexpected? And, more importantly, how have security events altered the trajectory of the affected regions? Host Neil Melvin is joined by Emily Ferris, Ed Arnold and Tobias Borck to discuss how this year has shaped Russia, Northern Europe and the Middle East, and what we can expect from 2024.

As the war enters its second winter and third year, are we now facing the prospect of battles lasting until at least 2025?

The prospect of an immediate decisive military breakthrough for Ukraine has disappeared. Kyiv’s offensive – launched in the summer – has largely subsided, with Ukraine’s troops exhausted from over six months of intense fighting. At the same time, Ukraine’s key international support pillars are under pressure. Depleted Western armouries will have far less to provide to Ukraine in the year ahead. Western political unity is being questioned, with struggles in the US Congress to ensure that Kyiv receives the critical military and economic assistance that it will need in 2024. And the EU is facing questions about whether there will be the unanimity to agree a €50-billion aid package and to open membership negotiations. Within Ukraine there are growing signs of concern about the current direction of the war.

With the military campaign appearing to face a period of prolonged stalemate, in this episode of Global Security Briefing we are joined by Mark Galeotti, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow and Principal Director, Mayak Intelligence.

As India is quickly developing as a major power, Global Security Briefing considers its prospects as a partner for the UK in the context of the Indo-Pacific ‘Tilt’

The world has many emerging powers, but India is probably the one with the greatest potential to shift the balance in the Indo-Pacific and, perhaps, the world over coming generations. Following independence, India forged a ‘non-aligned’ path through the Cold War. For most of its history, its main security threat came from neighbouring Pakistan, with which it has fought a series of wars, and competed successfully in a race to acquire nuclear weapons. Today, it is the prospect that India might take a side in the great power competition between the USA and China that is drawing the attention of the world.

India’s gigantic population and skills base also makes it an attractive market and technology partner, not least for Britain, as the UK seeks to develop new economic relations after leaving the EU. The UK government’s ‘Integrated Review’ of March 2021 described India as “an international actor of growing importance” and states the ambition to transform the UK’s cooperation with India “across the full range of our shared interests”. UK-India relations are framed by a mutually agreed roadmap to deepen bilateral ties by 2030 with the aim of developing a comprehensive strategic partnership.

In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Walter Ladwig III of King’s College London. Beyond what it offers the UK ‘tilt’, the trajectory of India’s rise appears certain to influence the outcome of military strategic rivalry, the evolution of global governance and the competition of different civilisational values. The question is ‘how?’.

Current UK China policy is defined by the three main concepts of protecting national interests, aligning with allies and engaging with China on key matters such as climate change where possible. But how are these approaches coordinated and prioritised?

The previous UK government was prepared to live with the ambiguity inherent in this approach, arguing that complexity of relations with China demanded a policy which takes into account the divergent and simultaneous trends in UK–China ties.

But while in opposition, Foreign Secretary David Lammy articulated his party’s intention of conducting ‘a full audit across Whitehall of our relationship with China so that we can set the direction and a course’.

In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Associate Fellows Isabel Hilton and Andrew Cainey to discuss how Labour will approach the balance between security, values, economic interests and environmental concerns and the difficult trade-offs inherent in dealing with China.

With David Cameron's return to government, this episode of the Global Security Briefing analyses the UK's approach to China over the past decade.

The UK’s 2023 Integrated Review Refresh declares China a ‘an epoch-defining systemic challenge’. This is a far cry from the tone of the earlier UK policy from 2015, when the then-Cameron government referred to the bilateral relationship with Beijing as entering a ‘golden era’.

This apparent discrepancy has prompted calls for greater coherence in policy execution, public debate and scrutiny. In this episode, we are joined by RUSI's Senior Associate Fellow and Founding Director of the UK National Committee on China, Andrew Cainey, to ask: what is the UK's current China policy, and is a strategy document the best way to achieve desired results?

Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October has opened a new chapter in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. We examine how the war is set to reshape the Middle East for years to come.

In a highly complex attack that included a missile barrage and an invasion of southern Israel, Hamas killed 1,400 people and took over 200 people hostage – mostly Israelis, but also a significant number of foreign nationals.

Israel has responded with overwhelming military force in the Gaza Strip, vowing to destroy Hamas once and for all. Thus far, Israel’s extensive air campaign and artillery bombardment has killed thousands of Palestinians.

There are fears that the conflict could escalate further. For the UK and the rest of Europe, the war also represents a difficult challenge. Most European governments have declared strong support for Israel, but there are also growing calls for a ceasefire. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow Tobias Borck and Dr Louise Kettle, Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Nottingham, to discuss how the war between Israel and Hamas is evolving.

This episode explores the future of UK–EU relations in the light of current challenges.

In the spring of 2021, the Integrated Review signalled the UK's future approach to European security post-Brexit, with an ambitious agenda for 'Global Britain'. Over two years on, there is a palpable sense that the UK may have turned a corner in its relations with the EU, with the ‘Windsor Framework’ agreement in early 2023 ending the most bitter Brexit dispute. Perhaps for the first time since the 2016 vote to leave the EU, the UK can begin to look ahead with greater confidence to its place in Europe and the wider world.

Host Neil Melvin ponders with Richard Whitman, Director of the Global Europe Centre and Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent, whether the UK has found a new post-Brexit foreign and security policy, and discusses how the UK is approaching wider European security framework questions such as NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force.

Over a year and a half after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and with both sides incurring significant losses, is the conflict coming to a standstill?

In February 2022, Moscow aimed to seize Ukraine quickly. But 20 months later, the war grinds on inconclusively, with untold human suffering.

Both sides are looking to restock, rearm and mobilise new troops. Ukraine is now coming up against serious constraints on what more can be provided from Western stocks, and there is growing political unease in Europe and the US about the implications of a long-term commitment to Kyiv.

Is the conflict heading for deadlock, and if so, what are the implications for the region? What is the risk of a protracted war? And how can Russia best be managed and deterred in the medium and long term?

Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Mark Galeotti, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI and Principal Executive Director of Mayak Intelligence, as well as Honorary Professor at University College London’s School of Slavonic and East European Studies, to discuss some of these questions.

As we explore the evolving nature of South Korean foreign and security policies, we ask whether the country is emerging as a more significant international actor.

South Korea’s foreign and security policies have traditionally been defined by regional interests and, above all, the unresolved conflict with North Korea. However, in recent years, South Korea has expanded its foreign policy horizons. In 2022, it adopted its own Indo-Pacific Strategy. Seoul has also backed sanctions against Russia in support of Ukraine’s independence. In addition, it has actively supported the G7’s coordination of the response to the war, and the South Korean president has attended recent NATO summits.

This new foreign policy direction is divisive domestically. In this episode, host Neil Melvin asks Professor Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Head of the Department of European and International Studies and Professor of International Relations at King’s College London, about the nature of South Korea as a foreign policy actor. How should Seoul seek to position itself in the rising confrontation between the US and its allies on the one hand, and Russia and China on the other?

In the final part of our examination of challenges to the Western liberal order, we take a look at the likely future shape of global security.

Previously on GSB, we asked Professor Stephen Walt whether an alternative international order, challenging the existing one, is emerging. We then had discussions with country experts sharing their analysis of the main challenges to the West across various parts of the world, and whether these regions will play significant roles in shaping the future international order.

To bring all these threads together, host Neil Melvin is joined by Paul Poast, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago and a non-resident fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. What might the future of global security look like? What sort of international order are we moving towards? And what are the risks in the emerging international order, including those of major wars?

In this episode , we turn to three key regions shaping the discussion around whether a counter-West order is emerging.

So far in our summer series, we’ve explored whether an alternative international order is challenging the global governance system established after the Second World War, and what the implications are for global security. Africa, Latin America and the Middle East hold unique viewpoints, and while each region has distinct historical, economic and political dynamics, they collectively contribute to the ongoing discourse and developments linked to global power shifts. These regions are also rapidly emerging as arenas in which Western and counter-West states are competing for influence and access to resources. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Carlos Solar, Tobias Borck and Simon Rynn from the International Security team at RUSI to consider how developments across these regions are shaping their role in a new world order.

In the second episode of our four-part summer series, we explore the role that Russia, China and Iran play in countering the Western-led international order.

Russia, China and Iran have become increasingly confrontational in both rhetoric and actions, advocating for alternative frameworks and principles that reflect and advance their own geopolitical interests.

They argue that we are witnessing a shift towards a multipolar world where power is more evenly distributed, and that this is the basis for a new global order. The war in Ukraine seems to have solidified not only the trilateral grouping as an anti-Western bloc, but also its resolve. Our host Neil Melvin is joined by Emily Ferris, Research Fellow at RUSI; Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI; and Philip Shetler-Jones, Thematic Coordinator, Crisis Management, Enhancing Security Cooperation In and With Asia (ESIWA) project, to discuss how these three players are shaping the new security landscape.

The first in a four-part summer series, this episode addresses the apparent weakening of the liberal international order established after the Second World War and the rise of a counter-West axis.

Since 1945, the liberal international order has been anchored by Western powers – centrally the US – promoting the principles of democracy, human rights, free trade and multilateralism. This order has played a central role in shaping global governance structures, including institutions like the UN, the World Bank, the IMF and NATO. However, in recent years, the liberal international order has faced numerous challenges. The relative decline of US power – characterised by economic shifts, political polarisation and domestic US concerns – has raised doubts about the US's willingness and ability to continue its global leadership role. And opportunities have emerged for other actors to assert themselves on the global stage.

In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Stephen Walt, the Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School and a renowned scholar in the field of international relations, to discuss the future of the global order. Is an alternative world order emerging? Which countries are involved in a systematic challenge to the existing international order, and in what capacities?

As NATO leaders and experts gather for the Vilnius Summit, we consider the rapid changes to Europe’s security environment.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has undoubtedly transformed European security forever, but these developments are taking place in the context of wider regional shifts. While NATO and the EU are being strengthened, the continent is also seeing growing sub-regional security and defence cooperation, minilateralism and efforts at strategic autonomy. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Ivo Daalder, President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former US Ambassador to NATO, to discuss how the US views Europe’s changing security and defence environment. What role will Washington seek to play in shaping the continent’s future security arrangements?

On the heels of a landslide victory, this episode examines the newly elected UK Labour government’s plan to refashion the UK’s security and defence ties with Europe.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and his team have identified the forging of a new relationship with the EU as a priority. Security, which was not part of the withdrawal agreement, is seen as a low-hanging fruit in this context, given the UK’s important resources and London’s generally shared interests with the EU.

However, since Brexit, much has changed in European security, and the degree to which the EU will be a strategic actor of regional and global significance is uncertain.

What should the new government’s priorities be for building the UK’s role in European security? What weight should security and defence ties with the EU have in this set of policies, and what sort of relationship should London look to foster? Host Neil Melvin is joined by Richard Whitman, Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent and RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, and Jake Benford, Senior Project Manager for the Europe Programme at the Bertelsmann Stiftung.

With the Vilnius NATO summit fast approaching, we consider what arrangements need to be made to secure Ukraine’s sovereignty.

The current focus of the international community is on sustaining and developing Ukraine’s warfighting capabilities to defend its territory and repel the Russian aggression. But ahead of the July NATO summit in Vilnius, attention is also turning to the task of ensuring Ukraine’s longer-term security, with pressure growing to grant Ukraine new security guarantees or even membership of NATO.

While it is difficult to predict the exact situation that will prevail when major combat ceases, Russia is likely to remain a long-term threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty, society and economy, and the prospect of a return to full-scale war or a protracted conflict together with hybrid and disinformation operations remains high. In this episode, host Neil Melvin talks to Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Defence Minister of Ukraine from 2019 to 2020 and currently the Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies in Kyiv, about what arrangements need to be made to protect the future of Ukraine. What sort of security support will it need? What are the security arrangements that are being proposed at the Vilnius summit? And why are some NATO members reluctant to extend membership of the organisation to Ukraine?

Russia’s war in Ukraine has brought into focus the enduring links between Moscow and Beijing. How will this tandem shape the future of global competition?

Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February 2022, where they released a joint statement proclaiming their ‘no limits’ partnership. Three weeks later, Russia invaded Ukraine. Beijing has subsequently walked a careful and rather ambiguous line over the conflict, refusing to condemn the invasion and resisting Western pressure to isolate Russia on the one hand, while on the other hand appearing reluctant to provide Russia with the military assistance needed to tip the war in its favour.

Many observers suggest that one of the most significant outcomes of the war will be a closer but asymmetrical alliance between Moscow and Beijing, with Russia in a much-reduced position. In this episode, host Neil Melvin discusses with Emily Ferris, Research Fellow at RUSI, and Raffaello Pantucci, Senior Associate Fellow, how the war is affecting this bilateral relationship. Is China ready to back Russia financially and militarily? How deep is the trust between Moscow and Beijing?

As Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emerges as the winner of Turkey’s presidential elections, we examine what this means for the country, the region and the world.

Erdoğan’s victory hardly came as a surprise. He had almost won in the first round, gaining 49.51% of the vote compared to 44.8% for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the 74-year-old retired civil servant leading the Republican People’s Party in alliance with other opposition movements. But ahead of the vote, there had been a real sense that Erdoğan faced a tough re-election battle, given Turkey’s skyrocketing inflation and the inadequate response to the earthquakes that devastated the country in February.

In this episode, host Neil Melvin talks to Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, Associate Fellow at RUSI, and Dr Ziya Meral, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, about the impact of this victory. Why did Erdoğan win? Will Turkey stick to what Erdoğan calls a ‘balanced policy’ between NATO and Russia? And how close to China is Turkey prepared to move?

As the contours of a new Saudi Arabia emerge under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, we analyse domestic and foreign policy reforms in a changing Kingdom.

Saudi Arabia is arguably the most powerful Arab country, and one of the key regional powers in the Middle East today. But Saudi Arabia’s importance goes far beyond the region. Its territory includes the two holiest sites in Islam – Mecca and Medina – giving the Kingdom a special global status. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is the world’s most important oil exporter, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has served to emphasise its crucial role in international energy markets. Through its Crown Prince, the contours of a new Saudi foreign policy seem to be emerging. This includes a changing and often fractious relationship with the US and the West; an increasingly warm and perhaps strategic relationship with China; and a steadfast refusal to break with Russia over its war in Ukraine – regardless of Western pressure.

Host Neil Melvin sits down with RUSI Senior Research Fellow Tobias Borck to discuss the state of Saudi Arabia’s reform efforts. How is the Kingdom navigating the changing global environment, and specifically, how is it approaching its relations with global powers like the US, Russia and China? And does Europe fit into the equation at all?

As geopolitical competition intensifies, we look at the future trajectory of the UK–Africa relationship.

For over two decades, international conversations about Africa were dominated by Western aid and preoccupations with the Global War on Terrorism. But recently, with great and middle powers visibly competing for influence across Africa, a new layer of complexity has been added to relations. For countries such as the UK and France, knowing how and when to engage can be a challenge: both countries have chequered histories that include colonialism, centuries of trade and two-way migration, support for development and – in the UK’s case – profit from slavery as well as support for its abolishment.

Yet, Africa is a diverse and dynamic continent, and presents openings and opportunities to those who engage in the right way.. In this episode, Neil Melvin talks to Ted Elgar, Head of Research at the Coalition for Global Prosperity, and Simon Rynn, Senior Research Fellow for African Security at RUSI, to discuss the prospects for fruitful cooperation between the UK and Africa.

In early April, Finland became the newest member of NATO, significantly changing the Alliance’s northern flank, as well as deeply impacting Nordic and Baltic security in the face of the war in Ukraine.

The war has rapidly altered Finnish security policy. Almost immediately after the invasion, public support for NATO membership leaped from a steady 25% in favour to around 75%. On 18 May 2022, Finland and Sweden simultaneously submitted their official letters of application, and NATO heads of state and government invited them both to join the Alliance at the Madrid Summit on 29 June. As Finland officially joined the Alliance in April 2023, we examine the impact of this on the European security environment, as well as on the UK as a growing security actor in Northern Europe, and one with strong bilateral ties to Finland.

In this episode of the Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin sits down with Matti Pesu, Leading Researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), and Ed Arnold, Research Fellow for European Security at RUSI, to discuss how Finland’s security policy is changing and how NATO membership will likely change Finland as a European security actor. How will the UK–Finnish defence and security relationship develop, and where are the priority areas for enhanced cooperation?

Originally published 6 April 2023.

After over two years, the Bridging the Oceans podcast is coming to an end. Bridging the Oceans, hosted by Veerle Nouwens, was the first podcast dedicated specifically to the defence and security of the Indo-Pacific. It explored what the Indo-Pacific is, where its limits lay, and what the fast-evolving defence and security issues were in this dynamic part of the world.

Together with a diverse range of experts, the podcast analysed today’s top geopolitical questions in the Indo-Pacific, understanding how these were seen within the region itself, and considered how these issues may impact the wider region including the United Kingdom.

Launched against the backdrop of a deteriorating security environment in the Indo-Pacific, will AUKUS prove an effective counterbalance to Chinese dominance in the region?

AUKUS, the tripartite deal between the US, the UK and Australia, caused considerable surprise and French consternation when it was announced in 2021. It involves acquiring a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, forecast to cost up to $368 billion between now and the mid-2050s, as well as aiming to boost defence capabilities, accelerate technological integration, and expand the industrial capacity of all three countries.

Beijing has branded the plan ‘a blatant act that constitutes serious nuclear proliferation risks, undermines the international non-proliferation system, fuels arms races, and hurts peace and stability in the region’.

In this episode, host Neil Melvin sits down with Dr Bates Gill, Executive Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis, and Professor Rory Medcalf, Head of the National Security College (NSC) at the Australian National University, to discuss the future of AUKUS. Can the three countries deliver on their high ambitions? Can AUKUS reinforce deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and change the security and defence calculations of China? This episode of Global Security Briefing was made possible thanks to the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York, as part of our project ‘Meeting the Challenge of China in the Indo-Pacific’.

This episode focuses on how global energy trends have shaped the geopolitics of the MENA for much of the past century, and how they will continue to do so.

For over two decades, the region seemed to be losing a lot of its energy importance for the West. Both the US and European countries have sought to reduce their involvement in MENA geopolitics, declaring instead their intention to focus on the Indo-Pacific. This all changed with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent energy crisis in Europe. As European countries have scrambled to replace oil and gas supplies from Russia, they have returned to the MENA. Furthermore, later this year, the UAE will host COP28, the UN’s annual climate change conference.

Host Neil Melvin discusses with Tobias Borck, Research Fellow for Middle East Security at RUSI, the big developments in the geopolitics of energy in the MENA. How are the oil and gas producers of the MENA region reacting to the renewed interest from Europe and the West, and how are they positioning themselves internationally? For all this and more, tune in now!

Originally published 15 March 2023.

The recent annual meetings of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the National People’s Congress (NPC) - the ‘Two Sessions’ - have already confirmed the national budget, high-level personnel appointments, and noted China's foreign and security outlook.

Newly appointed Foreign Minister Qin Gang used tough language when discussing the US, while President Xi accused the West – led by the US – of seeking China's containment. Amid growing strains in the Sino-US relationship, our host Veerle Nouwens sits down with Bonny Lin, Senior Fellow for Asian Security and Director of the China Power Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, to discuss the future trajectory of the bilateral relationship.

In this episode, GSB takes a look at how the 75th Anniversary Summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization aims to shape the future of the Alliance.

The summit takes place in Washington, DC, from 9 to 11 July, and is being billed as a celebration of the Alliance, often termed the most successful in history. There will also be attention to NATO’s recent efforts to rebuild its capacity to deter and defend against threats, notably from Russia, but with an eye on China too.

In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Oana Lungescu, RUSI Distinguished Fellow and the longest serving NATO Spokesperson (2010–23), and the first woman and first journalist to hold the post, as well as Ed Arnold, RUSI Senior Research Fellow. They discuss the main agenda items and decisions that will have to be made by the Alliance at Washington, as well as how NATO aims to set its future trajectory.

Following the announcement of the ‘Windsor Framework’ between the UK and Brussels over Northern Ireland’s trading arrangements - ending the most bitter Brexit dispute - there is a palpable sense that the UK may have turned a corner in its relations with the EU.

With the UK taking a leading role in support of Ukraine and in more broadly countering Russia , the country also seems to have to have reasserted itself as one of Europe’s leading powers. At home, the weakening of the Scottish Nationalist movement and their drive for independence has also brought a sense that another cloud hanging over the future of the UK has begun to pass. Perhaps for the first time since the 2016 vote to leave the EU, the UK can begin to look ahead with greater confidence about its place in Europe and the wider world.

However, the UK also faces considerable challenges operating outside major trading blocs and facing a complex and increasingly hostile international security environment. Join us on this edition of the Global Security Briefing as host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr. Richard Whitman, Senior Fellow on the UK in a Changing Europe initiative (University of Kent) to discuss just how the UK will navigate these important challenges. Outside the EU, but at the heart of European security, what does the UK now look like as a European security actor?

As we approach the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Global Security Briefing looks at the effects of the war, the potential risks for escalation, and what to expect in the future.

A year after Russia’s full-scale invasion began, the Ukrainian armed forces and population, with strong backing from a coalition of allies, have managed to blunt the attack. Russia has, however, begun to reorganise and learn from its mistakes. Host Neil Melvin sits down with Hanna Shelest, Director of Security Programmes at Foreign Policy Council ‘Ukrainian Prism’ and Editor-in-Chief at Ukraine Analytica, to discuss the future of this conflict, European security, and the eventual settlement of the war, which is likely to become the foundation for a new balance of power on the continent. Tune in now for in-depth analysis on the war the world is watching.

Originally published 15 February 2022. 

The current year is set to be a significant one for India, as it takes on both the G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) presidencies – two landmark moments for the Modi government ahead of the highly anticipated general elections next year.

Host Veerle Nouwens sits down with Garima Mohan, Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, to discuss just what the Indian government hopes to achieve through these two significant positions. What impact will these events have on China–India relations? How does New Delhi view the G20 and SCO when compared to other minilaterals that India is engaging in? And what will count as a success for New Delhi and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party? For answers to these questions and more, tune in now!

With growing uncertainty about the regional power balance in Nagorno-Karabakh, we analyse the concerns that another conflict could erupt.

For nearly 30 years, the confrontation over landlocked Nagorno-Karabakh persisted through numerous rounds of negotiations and a massive regional arms build-up between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In 2020, Azerbaijan launched an offensive using its modernised armed forces, overwhelming the Armenian defences and reclaiming the occupied territories as well as key parts of Karabakh itself. The agreement at the end of the conflict led to the introduction of a Russian peacekeeping force and proposals for new transport corridors to open up the region.

The war of 2020 also unsettled the region’s geopolitical balance, with Russia further weakened by the ongoing Ukraine war, and Turkey and Iran taking a stronger interest in the South Caucasus. Western countries are belatedly stepping up their engagement. What are the prospects of finding a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute and avoiding ethnic cleansing of the region?

Host Neil Melvin sits down with Laurence Broers from Conciliation Resources and Amanda Paul from the European Policy Centre to answer this very question. Tune in now!

After decades of peace, the Antarctic is emerging as a zone for future geopolitical competition.

While recent years have seen a growing international focus on the Arctic, the Earth’s southernmost region – governed by the 1959 Antarctic Treaty – has appeared divorced from wider polar tensions. However, in the last decade, China has expanded its presence and, along with Russia, has emerged as a disruptor of the existing system of Antarctic governance.

This episode of Global Security Briefing examines the core issues of dispute and how China and Russia are challenging the existing regional status quo. Can the governance of the region weather the current tensions? And how should Latin American countries – situated as gateways to the Antarctic but increasingly caught in the confrontation between the West, Russia and China – approach the region?

Neil Melvin is joined by Juan Pablo Toro, Executive Director of Athena Lab – Chile's foremost think tank on foreign and security issues – and Dr Carlos Solar, RUSI’s Senior Research Fellow in Latin American Security.

To welcome in the new year, the International Security Studies team at RUSI reviews the biggest stories from 2022 and what to look out for in 2023.

In the second instalment of the two-part seasonal special, host Neil Melvin is joined by Tobias Borck, Carlos Solar and Simon Rynn to discuss key developments in the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. What are the key threats to look out for in these regions? How are these regions engaging in the international security community and what kind of security actors are they shaping up to be? Join us to find out!

As the year comes to a close, the International Security Studies team at RUSI reviews the biggest stories from 2022 and what to look out for in 2023.

2022 has been a watershed year in the security sphere, from the war in Ukraine to major developments in the Indo-Pacific. This two-part seasonal special brings together the regional experts from RUSI’s International Security team. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Emily Ferris, Veerle Nouwens and Ed Arnold to discuss what to look out for in 2023. What lies ahead for Ukraine? What will be the key developments to look out for in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific? What is the future trajectory of security relations in Europe? Tune in to find out, and happy holidays from GSB!

Originally published 21 December 2022. 

Tough times lie ahead for Beijing, with a turbulent external environment now matched with domestic unrest.

To round out 2022, Veerle and Dr Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Associate Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs, UT Austin, reflect on a turbulent year for China policy. From a downward spiral in Sino-US relations and tensions over Taiwan, to the war in Ukraine and Beijing’s relationship with Moscow, this has been a tumultuous year. The search for a predictable framework to relations between China and the West provides some limited hope for 2023, but the fundamental differences between these actors remain, and another difficult year likely lies ahead.

As NATO prepares to welcome Sweden as a member, we examine what Stockholm’s security agenda could look like in the years ahead.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sweden quickly announced its intention to seek NATO membership. This move marked a significant departure from the country’s previous military non-alignment. With a new right wing-led government in place, and the country awaiting Turkey and Hungary’s ratification of its NATO membership, Sweden has made clear that national interests are at the heart of its international agenda. The new government has moved away from the idea of a feminist foreign policy and has begun to increase defence spending and to reduce international development assistance. What lies ahead for Sweden on its NATO journey, and what kind of member will it become in the years ahead? How will Sweden’s security priorities change as a member of the Alliance? For answers to all this and more, tune in now!

As the conflict enters the harshest months of the year, wen discuss what the winter could mean for both sides.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves around the world and has dominated the headlines ever since. Russia has focused heavily on seizing territory, and even formally annexed some regions in September. Moscow’s narratives of success have, however, been severely undercut by Ukrainian battlefield victories, the most recent of which, in Kherson, is seen by many as a turning point. As the war heads into its 10th month, Neil Melvin sits down with Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman of King's College London to discuss what the coming months will bring for both sides in the war. The onset of winter will test Ukraine’s ability to sustain its recent military successes, as well as Russia’s strategy of holding the Ukrainians along its new defensive line while drawing Kyiv into a protracted war. For in-depth analysis on likely scenarios and more, tune in now

The South Atlantic and the Antarctic have drawn considerable attention from big powers, who are racing to strengthen their regional footprints and presence as the region opens up for navigation and other potential uses.

Despite very low tensions, the South Atlantic is a recurrent area of discussion in the UK given the territorial claim over the Falkland archipelago by Argentina. The UK’s commitment to defend its overseas territories, blending both soft and hard power, has larger strategic implications given the increasingly contested geopolitics of the South Atlantic. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Juan Pablo Toro of AthenaLab in Chile and Dr Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, to discuss the prospects of the South Atlantic and Antarctica becoming zones where geo-economic competition and militarisation risk destabilising the status quo.

As the final electoral results trickle in, we discusses what the midterm elections can tell us about the future of US domestic and foreign policies.

Neil Melvin sits down with Max Bergmann, Director of the Europe Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC. With an anticipated strong Republican win heralding the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the ballots were seen as a clear signpost as to the direction of travel of US politics, with a likely immediate impact on Washington’s foreign and security policy – especially its support for Ukraine. What do the results indicate about the larger political battle being prepared for the 2024 presidential elections? Could the world still be facing a shock on the scale of the election of Donald Trump in 2016?

Originally published 9 November 2022.

Six months in, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol still treads a careful balance on some policy matters.

Veerle speaks with Ms Saeme Kim, Korea Foundation Visiting Fellow in RUSI’s Indo-Pacific Programme from 2021–2022. Saeme explores the policy continuities and changes in the Republic of Korea (ROK) from former President Moon Jae-in to current President Yoon Suk-yeol, outlining the country’s soon-to-be-launched Indo-Pacific Strategy and some bold new endeavours with partners like the US.

As tensions with Beijing and Pyongyang remain, greater cooperation with partners in Europe and the Indo-Pacific could come at a cost in Seoul’s own immediate regional environment. Despite this, a more outward-facing and networked South Korea with expertise in specific subregions and policy areas is likely to materialise. The UK, in particular, stands to gain from working more closely with Seoul, and Saeme offers a few ideas in this regard.

As the world watches, protests continue to rage across Iran.

With protests continuing across the country, Dr Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Senior Research Fellow, RUSI International Security Studies, to consider Iran’s future as it faces a changing regional and global security. They assess whether the protests can be a catalyst for domestic reform, and how these internal developments are shaping Iran’s foreign policy. What are the implications of Tehran’s growing relationship with Moscow for the war against Ukraine? What might future regional relations between Iran and China look like?

Originally published 26 October 2022.

Does the recent Congress indicate triumph or challenges ahead for China?

Veerle Nouwens speaks with two guests on China’s 20th Party Congress, in which Xi Jinping attained an unprecedented third term in office and brought in a set of personnel changes in Party governance. Raffaello Pantucci, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, explores how Xi’s speech and the Party Congress’s work report indicate an emphasis on internal stability and continuity in domestic and foreign affairs, including on Taiwan. Dr Lai I-Chung, President of Taiwan’s Prospect Foundation, explores differences in language and the listing of topics in the work report as a possible indication of subtle messaging to audiences that Beijing is serious about reunification. An accelerated push for peaceful reunification is to be expected with below-the-threshold advances that circumvent official channels for communication across the strait, while Beijing will further limit Taiwan’s space on the international stage. For this, I-Chung has some ideas of how countries, including the UK, can help.