Also: ASML's AI-led outlook, the diesel crunch, and the IMF's debt warning
US inflation reaccelerated in September, with headline CPI up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% from a year earlier, while core prices rose 0.3% and 2.6%. Gasoline drove more than half the monthly increase. The data hardened the higher for longer rates story, adding pressure to bonds, valuations and rate sensitive parts of the global market.
ASML gave Europe’s tech sector a counterpoint to the broader AI selloff, reporting third quarter net sales of €11.7 billion and net income of €5.0 billion, while lifting its 2026 revenue outlook to €44 billion to €45 billion. The chip equipment leader said planned 2027 and 2028 supply still may not meet demand, underscoring how deep the semiconductor investment cycle remains.
Energy risk stayed central after the IEA warned diesel supplies could remain constrained well into 2027. Refining margins jumped to about $95 a barrel in September as conflict related disruptions in the Middle East and Russia hit output and inventories drew down ahead of winter. That keeps freight, industry and inflation exposed even as overall oil demand softens.
China’s September exports surged 36.3% from a year earlier and imports rose 31%, widening the trade surplus beyond expectations and keeping the country on pace to exceed last year’s record. The strength shows how much global demand for Chinese goods, especially high tech products, is still supporting growth, but it also raises the odds of fresh trade friction with major partners.
The IMF used its Fiscal Monitor to warn that rising debt, higher interest rates and persistent spending pressures are leaving governments with less room to absorb shocks. It said fiscal risks are climbing across countries and that spillovers from major advanced economies do not stop at national borders. For markets, that reinforces the link between deficit credibility, bond yields and global financial conditions. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.
Sources:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htmhttps://investor.asml.com/news-releases/news-release-details/asml-reports-eu11.7-billion-total-net-sales-and-eu5.0-billion-net-income-q3-2026This episode includes AI-generated content.
