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What’s the deal with the Finance Ministry?

The Ministry of Finance in Lebanon has become a powerful tool for advancing Hezbollah’s interests, shaping its ability to sustain its influence and control over the country’s systems.

This ministry oversees critical financial operations, including customs, tax collection, public sector finances, and cash management, all of which have been exploited to Hezbollah’s benefit. For decades, customs evasion by Hezbollah-affiliated companies at ports and airports has been facilitated by the ministry, which acts as a shield, ensuring these entities avoid scrutiny. This explains why we had so much of Hezbollah and Assad’s explosives at the port. It also explains the metldowns of passengers arriving from Iran at the Beirut airport when, for the first time ever, they were searched by Lebanese customs. Remember that guy screaming “this is not Beirut! This is Tel Aviv” for simply having his bag checked at customs?

The ministry has further entrenched Hezbollah’s economic influence by prioritizing contracts and transactions with organizations affiliated with Hezbollah and Amal. Government accounts at the central bank are also controlled by the finance minister, who manages cash flow in a way that skews public sector operations in favor of these groups. This has extended to the growth of cash-based companies aligned with Hezbollah, which have been awarded lucrative government contracts to collect revenues. By resisting reforms such as e-government payments and maintaining manual cash transactions, these companies have exploited government funds for arbitrage and money laundering.

Tax collection and VAT administration have also been selectively enforced, allowing Hezbollah-linked companies and organizations to evade their financial obligations while others are subjected to strict measures. Also, the Minister of Finance holds significant power as their signature is legally required for all government decrees with financial implications. This authority has been used to wield veto power over public sector appointments and decisions, often under the guise of religious or political considerations. Payments due to other ministries and suppliers can be delayed or prioritized at the minister's discretion, giving Hezbollah and its allies substantial leverage over government operations.

So, after Hezbollah’s threats failed in stopping Joseph Aoun, then when their threats failed to install Najib Mikati and couldn’t stop us from appointing Nawaf Salam, they think they will be able to still protect their illegal parallel economy, and hold permanent veto power, despite them no longer being able to enforce those threats post-Syria and post their catastrophic “Gaza support” front they still, though with much less gusto, think was a “victory”.

The expansion of the cash economy, driven by these practices, has placed Lebanon on the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) grey list, further isolating the country economically. Despite international sanctions on Hezbollah, these cash companies have enabled money laundering and facilitated the militia’s financial activities. *cough* Qard El Hassan *cough*.

If we’re to introduce meaningful reforms as a country, it is non-negotiable that the Ministry of Finance be removed from the control of individuals and groups associated with Hezbollah.

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Hezbollah Needs a Fresh Excuse: Cue Saudi Foreign Minister’s Visit

After Nawaf Salam’s appointment, defying Hezbollah's directives, the group predictably sought an excuse to justify their loss of control. In this case, they claimed they were “betrayed” by the “other side,” spinning a narrative about a secret deal among other parliamentary members. According to this version, Hezbollah would “allow” the election of Joseph Aoun after years of obstruction, in exchange for the appointment of their fallback option, Najib Mikati. When this plan failed to materialize, Hezbollah’s representatives put on a show of outrage, dramatically accusing others of betrayal in the Baabda presidential palace, complete with threats and hyperbolic declarations about “cutting off hands.”

When their media disinformation campaign and fake news blitz on WhatsApp failed to gain traction, and Nawaf Salam publicly dismissed these rumors, Hezbollah was forced to confront an uncomfortable reality: their last-ditch effort to hold Lebanon hostage by monopolizing the finance ministry wasn’t going to succeed. However, beneath the surface, they might quietly prefer this outcome. Reconstruction funds are crucial to Hezbollah at the moment, and monopolizing the ministry could jeopardize access to that much-needed financial lifeline. Still, true to form, Hezbollah prioritizes optics and narrative control over reality, which is why they continue to spin this glaring defeat as a supposed victory—though even their loyal base might struggle to believe it this time.

Faced with the need to redirect blame and justify their failure, Hezbollah will likely resort to their familiar strategy of accusing external forces. Whether it’s the Saudis, the West, or some other external “enemy,” the group’s narrative will frame their failure as a result of outside interference rather than their own inability to achieve their goals through force. Enter Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, whose visit to Lebanon—the first in 15 years—comes at a particularly opportune moment. If the cabinet forms without Hezbollah securing the finance ministry, the group will almost certainly blame Saudi Arabia for exerting undue pressure on Lebanon. They’ll likely pivot to promises of eventual revenge, spinning a story that their base can digest, rather than admitting, “Sorry, we just couldn’t force our way this time.”

The result for us? A long-overdue opportunity to hold those responsible for stealing our money accountable. Riad Salameh, once shielded by Berri at all costs, was finally discarded when he outlived his usefulness and now sits in a jail cell—hopefully for the rest of his life, given the magnitude of his crimes. But this is just the beginning. Justice demands that his accomplices—those who protected him and shared in the spoils of the wealth they illegally took from all of us—be brought to account as well. Hopefully, they will soon follow him, ensuring that no one escapes responsibility for the harm they inflicted.

So, I’ll check back with you in a few days, and today, I’ll be watching closely what happens with Prince Faisal, and we can come back and analyze if this prediction and analysis was right, and if not, what actually happened.

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Let me keep this short, but I can’t stay silent on this. The usual suspects are at it again—ganging up to strong-arm Nawaf Salam and Joseph Aoun into caving to their demands. Why? So they can cash in some favors and avoid getting wiped out in the upcoming elections. Let’s dive in.

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What Salam Demands

* No partisan ministers—no one who's a card-carrying member of any political party.

* No ministers from the last three cabinets.

* Parties with enough representation must submit resumes and names they’re okay with, leaving Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam to pick who actually makes it into the cabinet.

All of this is just common sense. We can’t have party stooges stepping out of cabinet meetings to WhatsApp their zaim for instructions before casting a vote. And we sure as hell can’t have a minister who presided over the August 4 blast or the orchestrated financial collapse. That should go without saying—but here I am, saying it anyway.

As for the last point, the constitution is crystal clear: it’s the PM and President’s call. The former parties that used to rule under Nasrallah’s rule, still haven’t accepted that there’s a new sheriff in town and they can’t hide behind old excuses to force terrible ministers down Lebanon’s throat anymore.

The Unlikely Alliance

It’s strange, at first glance, to see Hezbollah, Amal, the FPM, and the Lebanese Forces aligning in their disinformation campaigns against Nawaf Salam and Joseph Aoun, trying to sink their chances from the start.

But if you’ve been paying attention, it’s not strange at all. This is exactly what these parties do. Their brinkmanship to install loyal lieutenants in power isn’t going to change overnight. And honestly, who can blame them? With a little over a year until a parliamentary election that’s likely to gut many of their blocs, they’re scrambling to milk every last cent and favor from the government while they still can. They’re desperate to hire their cronies, dole out benefits to voters, and claw back some of the support they’ve already lost.

So, of course, after we blocked their path to Foud Makhzoomi—their favorite who promised them an even bigger slice of the pie—and brought in Salam instead, they’re doubling down. They’re still going to squeeze out whatever they can to shore up their crumbling patronage networks.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

While the usual suspects are desperate for business as usual to return, the game has changed in ways that no longer work in their favor. The days of Iranian planes flying in bags of cash to fuel Wafik Safa’s “plata o plomo” tactics are over. The Assad regime no longer has the clout to prop up the so-called Axis of Resistance. And the only way Lebanon is getting the funds to rebuild what Hezbollah and Israel destroyed is from countries that won’t be bullied by Mohamad Raad’s threats.

From the GCC countries to the Trump administration and Europe, no one’s caving. Macron might still be licking his wounds over his buddy Mikati pulling in fewer votes than I have fingers, but even he knows the jig is up.

No matter who gets which ministry, there will be enough oversight and safeguards in place to keep the gruesome twosome from slipping back into their old dirty tricks.

Have Some Respect and Brains

Nawaf Salam’s victory made Mohamad Raad go into a severe depression. They were flabbergasted and deflated. It’s the same Nawaf Salam that was instrumental in making sure the Special Tribunal for Lebanon was created to try the killers of Rafik Hariri and others, namely Hezbollah and the Assad regime. How the hell are you so naive to pretend he is their man now, given how dazed and confused and betrayed Hezbollah was after we pulled off getting him appointed while they were busy trying to threaten. Inno, come on peeps. If you’re waiting for any excuse to give up and not do the work, just spare us all and sit this one out.

Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam came with our support. Our support needs to be steady and immovable by cheap Twitter campaigns of disinformation by the usual suspects trying to buy off some votes like they always have, instead of actually do their jobs.

In their acceptance speeches, both Joseph and Nawaf made it clear: they aim to include everyone, not isolate anyone. Isolation and exclusion are Hezbollah’s tactics—not ours. What’s promising this time is the presence of guardrails set by our president and prime minister to ensure they adhere to our laws and constitution. More importantly, these measures will prevent the formation of a cabinet filled with troublemakers whose sole purpose is to maintain the status quo and keep their masters relevant in a world that’s already moved on.

Democracy, Lebanese-style, means everyone gets a voice, but no one gets to impose their will on the rest. Even if the gruesome twosome manage to secure some ministers—because, yes, they do have MPs—it doesn’t mean they’ll be able to derail the country as they’ve done for decades. Not anymore. Not with an invigorated public like us and energized judges like Tarek Bitar leading the charge.

A party we despise getting ministers isn’t the end—it’s the start of their reintegration into Lebanon. It’s the beginning of their return to their actual size, stripped of the bloated carcass they’d become, inflated by illegitimate weapons and repeated invasions of Beirut to impose their will.

Have Faith!

If you don’t believe in yourself, why would anyone else? We fought to bring two men we trust into power, only to falter at the first sign of a paid Twitter smear campaign filled with baseless rumors. Don’t let that manipulate your emotions or shake your resolve.

Getting Nawaf Salam instead of Mikati or Makhzoomi was a monumental win, but it was just one step in a long, grueling journey. This is a marathon, not a 100-meter sprint, so stop treating every challenge like it’s the end of the world. Of course, forming the cabinet was always going to be tricky—but we’re more than capable of meeting this challenge head-on.

Resist the defeatist mindset of older generations who throw up their hands and say “screw it” when things get tough. Don’t be so quick to lose faith. Stay steady in your convictions and keep working to make them a reality.

That’s how we’ll win.

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A few private or throw-away accounts kept commenting conspiracy theories about Nawaf Salam on my posts on Instagram, I reckon they’re rumors spread by people who stand to lose illegitimate privilege in case he succeeds in the transformation of Lebanon, post-Assad and post-Nasrallah. So I thought, why not objectively compare what we wrote in 1987 and published by Oxford-based Centre for Lebanese Studies (CLS), and now.

Lebanon’s been shaped by its delicate sectarian balance, regional dynamics, and international pressures for as long as it has existed in its current format. Few people have articulated its challenges as incisively as Nawaf Salam. It’s part of why he is so widely respected, even by his detractors.

Today, we’re gonna dive into his 1987 An Essay on Political Opportunities and Constraints, and compare it to his positions in 2025 when he successfully got appointed as Lebanon’s Prime Minister-designate.

Salam’s evolving positions reflect both consistency in principles and prudent adaptation to shifting realities. Let’s pick them apart together.

What Lebanon Was Like in 1987

Let’s try to visualize what sate Lebanon was in when this essay was published in 1987.

In 1987, Lebanon was fractured beyond recognition. Rashid Karami’s assassination in June was just another blow in a year defined by unchecked sectarian violence, economic collapse, and militia-driven chaos.

Beirut, carved into East and West, embodied the Christian-Muslim militias divide, while Israel’s occupation in the south fueled resistance from Hezbollah and other groups later sidelined by Hezbollah. Kidnappings of Western hostages by Hezbollah-linked groups painted Lebanon as a place of lawlessness and despair on the global stage.

The economy was in free fall, with the Lebanese pound’s collapse and runaway inflation making survival a daily struggle for most.

Syria tightened its grip on Lebanon, entrenching itself in the country’s fractured political system and deploying troops under the guise of stabilizing the chaos.

I feel like amid this chaos, Salam’s essay was less a policy prescription and more a measured reckoning with the situation. It laid bare the impossibility of simplistic solutions, like partition or dismantlement, and sketched out a vision that dared to imagine a balance—one that addressed deep-seated inequalities while acknowledging the grim realities of a country in freefall.

The 1987 Essay: Political Constraints and Opportunities

His analysis focused on three key areas:

* Partition and Dismantlement: Salam unequivocally opposed partition as a solution to Lebanon’s sectarian tensions. He argued that partitioning the country would exacerbate conflicts and lacked support domestically, regionally, and internationally. Similarly, he rejected the notion of dismantlement (imposed by external actors), warning of destabilizing ripple effects across the Middle East.

* National Identity: Salam emphasized the need to reconcile Lebanon’s Arab identity with its unique Christian-Muslim coexistence. He viewed this balance as central to fostering loyalty to the state and maintaining Lebanon’s territorial integrity.

* Political Reforms: Recognizing the failures of the 1943 National Pact, Salam called for a “New Deal” to address demographic shifts, social inequalities, and governance issues. He proposed creating new institutions like a Constitutional High Court and decentralizing governance to strengthen local participation.

The New Deal of 1987

Central to Salam’s vision for Lebanon in 1987 was his proposal for a “New Deal,” a framework designed to rebuild the nation’s political and social structures. The key elements of this proposal included:

* Balance of Power: Salam emphasized the need to address the grievances of the Muslim majority while reassuring the Christian minority. This involved balancing political representation to reflect demographic realities without marginalizing any group.

* Creation of New Institutions: He proposed establishing a Constitutional High Court to resolve political disputes and ensure the integrity of constitutional governance. Additionally, a Socio-Economic Council would address economic inequalities and guide development policies.

* Decentralization: Salam advocated for decentralizing governance through the creation of elected provincial councils. This would increase local participation in decision-making and reduce the concentration of power in Beirut.

* Merit-Based Bureaucracy: To reduce corruption and nepotism, he called for open access to government jobs based on merit rather than sectarian quotas.

* Gradual Abolition of Sectarianism: While recognizing the entrenched sectarian loyalties, Salam’s New Deal envisioned a gradual move toward a secular state. This would involve initially limiting sectarian representation to specific roles, such as a senate, while transitioning parliamentary elections to a non-sectarian proportional basis.

* Expansion of Political Participation: Salam proposed increasing the size of Parliament and lowering the voting age to include more voices, particularly those of Lebanon’s politically active youth.

2024: A Leader in Crisis

While the details have shifted, Lebanon in 2025 echoes much of the turmoil of 1987. Both periods are marked by economic collapse, with rampant inflation and widespread poverty driving social unrest. In 2025, an additional $10 billion in economic losses compounds the suffering, while part of the South remains under Israeli occupation. The country also grapples with piecing together something coherent from a fractured identity, the differences intensified by the fall of Assad's regime and Hezbollah's significantly diminished military influence which kept everyone else docile, or else.

His public statements so far reveal how his positions have definitely evolved while remaining anchored in his core principles:

* Inclusivity and Unity: Salam’s 2025 rhetoric reflects his long-standing opposition to partition. By extending “both hands” to all factions, including Hezbollah, he emphasizes unity as the cornerstone of rebuilding Lebanon. This mirrors his 1987 belief in the necessity of preserving Lebanon’s territorial and social cohesion.

* State Authority: Salam’s commitment to extending state authority across all parts of the country is a modern echo of his earlier rejection of external interference and parallel power structures within Lebanon. His 2024 stance highlights the importance of re-establishing sovereignty in a fractured state, and making sure only the state has a monopoly on weapons.

* Economic Reforms: In 2025, Salam prioritizes economic recovery, stating the need to “build a modern economy” and implement reforms to secure international investments. While his 1987 essay focused primarily on political restructuring, his current focus on economic issues underscores an adaptive response to Lebanon’s acute financial crisis.

Consistency and Evolution

Consistency in Vision:

* Salam’s lifelong emphasis on unity and inclusivity remains a defining feature of his political philosophy. His rejection of partition and focus on fostering national dialogue have been consistent pillars of his thought.

* His advocacy for institutional reforms, from his “New Deal” proposal in 1987 to his 2024 pledges for governance improvement, demonstrates an enduring commitment to systemic change.

Evolution in Approach:

* Engagement with Hezbollah: While his 1987 essay did not address Hezbollah specifically, Salam’s 2024 openness to engage with all factions reflects a pragmatic adaptation to Lebanon’s modern political realities. Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon’s power structure cannot be ignored, and Salam’s approach signals an effort to foster dialogue over division, given how Hezbollah's ability to impose its will by sheer force, is no longer a factor.

* Economic Prioritization: The focus on economic reforms in 2024 marks a shift from the identity and governance-centric concerns of his earlier work. Lebanon’s dire financial crisis has necessitated this pivot, demonstrating Salam’s ability to address pressing contemporary challenges.

The Road Ahead

Nawaf Salam’s journey from intellectual analyst to political leader offers a blueprint for navigating Lebanon’s complexities. His enduring belief in unity and reform provides a stable foundation, while his adaptive approach reflects the need for pragmatic leadership in times of crisis.

As Salam steps into his role as Prime Minister-designate, Lebanon stands at a crossroads. Whether he can translate his vision into tangible progress remains to be seen, but his trajectory from 1987 to 2024 offers valuable insights into the interplay of principles and pragmatism in leadership.

For Lebanon, the challenge lies not only in rebuilding its institutions but also in fostering a shared vision of a united, resilient future—a vision Salam has consistently championed throughout his career.

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On Tuesday night, I had the pleasure of joining Lil Watan on MTV Lebanon via live video call with Joe Maalouf and his guest, Makram Rabah. Both are good friends of mine, and I’ve had the privilege of collaborating with Joe on numerous investigations and battles over the years. After a long hiatus, it was an honor to share airtime with him once again—especially as it marked my first appearance on MTV Lebanon.

I sent a message to the new president after getting your input on my Instagram story. I pulled together everything I heard from you, especially about judicial reform, which is something I care about a lot. Today, I’m gonna expand on that and elaborate my idea.

Lebanon is standing at a fork in the road. A new president, a new prime minister, and, maybe, a new chance to break free from the corruption and stagnation that have paralyzed the country for decades.

But here’s the catch: legislation is still stuck in the hands of entrenched elites who use it to prop up their interests, ignoring the real needs of the public. It’s a frustrating legislative stalemate—but there’s one way to break it: judicial reform.

The timing also couldn’t be better. The new prime minister isn’t just anyone—he’s the former President of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), one of the sharpest legal minds in the world. I’m still elated that we all came together to make it a reality and get him appointed!

If anyone can steer Lebanon’s judiciary into becoming a beacon of fairness and justice, it’s him. By cleaning up the judiciary, this administration could get ahead of malicious legislative gridlock and finally enforce laws that protect people, not illegitimate influence and power.

Parliament Keys in Berri’s Hands

About a third of the DMs and story replies I got were people asking what we can do about Nabih Berri—Hezbollah’s right-hand man and the Speaker of Parliament since, what, the Paleolithic era?

Under his speakership, Lebanon’s parliament has been locked in a perpetual deadlock. Vital reforms are ignored, laws are diluted beyond recognition, and the public’s real needs are constantly pushed aside. Case in point: we’ve gone over two years without a president—not once, but twice—because he refused to call a parliamentary session unless it was a the predetermined outcome he wanted (or, of course, included a salary increase for MPs).

It’s a rigged game where the old elites bend the rules, break them when it suits them, and everyone else pays the price. Frustration is at a breaking point, and trust in government is practically nonexistent. Without a functioning parliament, change feels out of reach. How can Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam make progress when the third leg of the table is Nabih Berri—Lebanon’s mob boss, Hezbollah’s unsanctioned proxy, and the guy who handles things like negotiating their surrender to Israel?

That’s where the judiciary can step in.

The Judiciary’s Role in Breaking the Gridlock

Lebanon’s judiciary has the power to interpret and enforce laws, even when the legislature is paralyzed. The problem isn’t the legal framework—we already have laws against corruption, protecting the environment, and safeguarding human rights. Sure, some laws need updating, and others, like Article 534 of the penal code, need to be abolished altogether. But there are plenty of existing laws that, if implemented properly, could lead to real, tangible improvements in our lives.

The real issue is implementation. Judges with integrity have the ability to bridge the gap between laws on paper and justice in practice.

A case that exemplifies this potential is that of Samira Soueidan, a Lebanese widow whose children were born to her late Egyptian husband. In 2009, a First Instance Court in Jdeideh-Metn, presided over by Judge John Azzi, issued a groundbreaking decision granting Soueidan’s children Lebanese nationality. Judge Azzi reasoned that if the nationality law allowed a naturalized woman to pass on Lebanese nationality from her deceased husband in the name of family unity, then the same must apply to Lebanese women. He invoked the legal principle that when laws are ambiguous or incomplete, a judge’s mission is to interpret or extend the rule to achieve a just and humane solution aligned with equity and justice. By grounding his decision in the Lebanese constitution and nationality law, Judge Azzi demonstrated the judiciary’s power to uphold fairness even when legislation falls short. However, this bold and just ruling came at a cost. Judge Azzi was removed from his post and reassigned to a position where he could no longer make similarly impactful decisions—a clear message from the entrenched elites. This kind of judicial courage and principled decision-making is exactly what Lebanon needs to restore faith in its legal system and push for real reform.

How Lebanon’s Justice System Works (or Doesn’t)

Lebanon’s justice system is a mix of French civil law and local traditions. On paper, it’s comprehensive and functional. In reality, it’s a maze of inefficiency and political meddling. Here’s a quick rundown:

* Ordinary Courts: Handle civil and criminal cases, with a hierarchy that leads up to the Court of Cassation (the top authority).

* Specialized Courts: Focus on specific issues like military or administrative disputes.

* Religious Courts: Deal with personal status laws for Lebanon’s various religious communities. (For me, Lebanon will never truly move froward unless we get a civil personal status law and abolish these religious courts that foster sectarian division and are increasingly skewed against women’s rights, and children’s rights, in favor of even abusive men.)

* The Constitutional Council: Handles constitutional matters and election disputes.

At the heart of this system is the Public Prosecution Office, led by the النائب العام (Public Prosecutor). The top spot belongs to the Public Prosecutor of the Court of Cassation (النائب العام التمييزي), who oversees the whole operation. Below them are regional and specialized prosecutors who tackle everything from local disputes to financial crimes.

These prosecutors hold immense power—they decide what cases go to court and how justice is served.

But corruption and political interference often turn this power into a weapon for the old guard.

Why the Judiciary Has Been Failing

The judiciary is supposed to be the great equalizer, but in Lebanon, it’s a tool for the powerful to abuse for personal gain and revenge. Many judges and prosecutors are more interested in serving political patrons than delivering justice.

Corruption is rampant, accountability is non-existent, and trust in the system has been shattered. Instead of being a pillar of democracy, the judiciary has become a roadblock. And when we had judges that weren’t corrupt, they’d be threatened or derailed, as we saw Hezbollah do when they tried to assassinate the investigating judge in the August 4, 2020 port explosion.

Consider my own experience: I was forced to flee after enduring four illegal detentions designed to intimidate me into silence following the October 17, 2019 uprising. To this day, years later, military court summonses still prevent me from returning home.

Fixing the System: Public Prosecutors as the Key

Reforming the Public Prosecution Office is where it all starts. Here’s how:

* Merit-Based Appointments: Judges and prosecutors should be chosen for their qualifications, not their connections.

* Independent Oversight: Create bodies to monitor the decisions and actions of prosecutors, ensuring they serve justice, not politics.

* Training and Resources: Give prosecutors the tools they need to do their jobs well and with integrity.

* Cut Political Ties: Ensure the Public Prosecution Office is free from political influence.

This is where the new prime minister’s background becomes a game-changer. With his international experience, he can bring best practices to Lebanon, setting a new standard for fairness and transparency. He understands how to build systems that resist corruption, intimidation (even by the likes of Israel) and deliver results.

Judicial reform isn’t just about cleaning up the courts. It’s about giving Lebanon a chance to function again. Here’s what it could mean:

* Better Governance: Enforce existing laws and make government work for the people.

* Restored Trust: Show the public that justice is real and corruption won’t be tolerated.

* Set the Tone for Reform: Use the judiciary as a model for fixing other broken systems.

* Empower Civil Society: Give activists and NGOs a real shot at making change through the courts.

This is the moment to turn the judiciary into a force for good—not just for this administration, but for Lebanon’s future.

Final Thoughts

Judicial reform isn’t just another box to check; it’s the foundation for everything else.

With a judiciary that works, Lebanon can finally break free from the grip of corrupt elites’ control and start building a system that works for the people.

And with the new prime minister’s unparalleled expertise, and the president’s steadfastness in the face of intimidation, there’s no better time to do this.

Many laws are already there. The people are ready. It’s time to make justice real.

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My therapist once told me, “You’re like a whistleblower—you know something for certain and try your best to tell everyone, but most people think you’re insane and ignore it. That only frustrates you more, especially when you’re eventually proven right—often too late.” I’m paraphrasing, but that sentiment has stuck with me for years. It sums things up perfectly.

I’ve been called everything: crazy, too extreme, impractical, delusional, obsessed with the wrong priorities. I’ve heard people say, “Things will never change,” like it’s gospel. But here’s what I’ve learned since that conversation: my convictions didn’t come out of nowhere. They’re grounded in reason, shaped by evidence and undeniable patterns. Sure, it’s maddening when others don’t see it, but I’ve come to understand that time and circumstances inevitably validate the truth—and that makes the frustration worth enduring.

Those emotions are surging right now after this historic, unprecedented week. I know many of you feel the same way—stunned, reflective and definitely energized.

As the blindsided establishment scrambles, spinning conspiracies, throwing around threats, and playing the victim card (classic moves from those long entrenched as the aggressors), it’s time to take a breath and dissect what just happened. Let’s talk about how we outmaneuvered Wafik Safa’s brutal, slaughterhouse tactics and why Hezbollah is still reeling from their Captagon withdrawal.

January 9: Joseph Aoun Becomes the 14th President of the Republic

Endorsing Joseph Aoun so publicly and forcefully was a gamble—I knew some backlash was inevitable. The puritanical crowd, along with those who’ve been consistently too soft on Hezbollah, were always going to bristle. These are the same voices that stood with us during October 17, 2019, but could never bring themselves to acknowledge the obvious: Hezbollah isn’t just part of the problem; it’s the mob boss ensuring the whole corrupt system stays obedient and in line.

Still, I was convinced he was the right man for this moment, and I laid out my reasoning in detail in my endorsement. If you haven’t read it yet, you can check it out here. I don’t know Joseph Aoun personally, but I’ve been following his leadership closely and offering my quiet support for a while now. That conviction solidified after the Tayyouneh invasion, when Hezbollah’s armed thugs sought to assassinate the judge investigating the catastrophic August 4, 2020, Beirut Port explosion. Moments like that reveal character—and his response spoke volumes.

Despite Hezbollah’s relentless efforts, Joseph Aoun was on track to be elected. Not even the barrage of over a dozen front-page smear campaigns by Al Akhbar or the chorus of Hezbollah-aligned influencers and analysts could derail it. Tellingly, many of those voices have fallen eerily silent in recent days.

When their threats failed to land, Wafik Safa, Hezbollah’s notorious enforcer, made a calculated move. Standing at the site where Nasrallah orchestrated countless assassinations, he claimed Hezbollah “never had a veto” on Joseph Aoun—a desperate attempt to spin the narrative and mitigate the fallout. For the first time, Hezbollah found itself unable to strong-arm the country into submission, its iron grip slipping as it failed to impose its will.

Soon, MPs within Hezbollah’s orbit began to see the writing on the wall and shifted their stance, aligning themselves with Joseph Aoun. They calculated that the presidency, in their view, is largely ceremonial—especially if the prime minister is one of their own. With a cabinet united under their influence, they believed they could effectively sideline the president, no matter how strong his popular mandate might be.

Now we get to the even more exciting part.

January 10: The Makhzoumi-Mikati showdown

Eager to mask the embarrassment of Berri and Hezbollah losing their grip on parliament and their ability to keep the presidency vacant, traditional media and political echo chambers quickly framed the narrative around two "viable" candidates: Najib Mikati and Fouad Makhzoumi.

Mikati, firmly Hezbollah’s choice, was the establishment’s candidate through and through—backed by the banks and a close ally of now-deposed Bashar al Assad. He had partnered with Riad Salameh in looting public funds and was Hezbollah’s pick to lead the executive branch on multiple occasions in the past 20 years. Hezbollah’s spare tire, as I like to call him.

Makhzoumi, on the other hand, was framed as the anti-Hezbollah candidate, backed by the Lebanese Forces and their parliamentary bloc. His main credentials? Wealth—though no one seemed to question how he amassed it—and his recent distance from Hezbollah’s orbit. For the Lebanese Forces, that seemed to suffice.

Admittedly, Makhzoumi would have been less catastrophic than Mikati, but he still fell far short of the leadership and vision people have come to expect after someone like Joseph Aoun became president. The comparison was laughable; Makhzoumi was nowhere near the level needed to meet the moment.

January 11: Ibrahim Mneimneh Steps Forward

Ibrahim Mneimeh has consistently been one of my top choices for prime minister. I’ve supported him since his run for Beirut Municipality chief in 2016, where he gave us our first glimpse of near-victory against all odds and an establishment under Hezbollah’s command.

Despite facing immense pressure at the height of Hezbollah’s dominance—when they were deeply entrenched in the slaughter of innocent Syrian civilians for Bashar al-Assad’s gain—Mneimeh stood firm. His resilience and vision have made him a standout leader in my eyes ever since. He’s also one of our 13 MPs we managed to get into elected office in 2022, the first election after the Thawra.

Unsurprisingly, the more conservative and right-leaning factions within the change-minded camp began attacking Ibrahim Mneimeh. Their justification? That everyone needed to rally around Makhzoumi, arguing that defeating Mikati was the only priority and dismissing the importance of a solid platform. Meanwhile, casual observers chimed in with the all-too-familiar refrain: “Ugh, these new MPs are screwing everything up! There’s no hope! Why won’t they just unite?!”

It was a lazy excuse—a cop-out for those unwilling to engage, preferring instead to expect elections to follow a preordained, risk-free script. This mindset, sadly, is a direct product of decades of failed governance. Over 40 years of mismanagement have conditioned people to view even the most basic campaigning and political work as disruptive, as if challenging the status quo is inherently reckless rather than necessary.

I was enthusiastic, and not just because Ibrahim Mneimeh is one of my favorite MPs and someone I consider a friend. It was because I saw an opportunity—a chance to flip the table and prevent the fragile, unpredictable coalition we had with parties like the Lebanese Forces from derailing the momentum sparked by Joseph Aoun’s election and his powerful speech. This moment felt like a rare opening to push forward, rather than let old patterns reassert themselves.

Which brings us to Sunday, January 12, 2025—a day that still has my adrenaline pumping, even now.

January 12: LF and Makhzoumi’s Dig In

The brilliant result of Ibrahim Mneimneh entering the race was that it weakened Makhzoumi’s chances, thus improving the numbers for Mikati. This gave Hezbollah’s camp a much-needed sigh of relief, and in my opinion, false sense of safety that it was gonna be business as usual.

Dutifully, the major TV stations and their lineup of woeful analysts and commentators jumped on the narrative, confidently proclaiming that Mikati was a certainty and cautioning everyone not to hope for anything more.

The lazy crowd quickly jumped on the bandwagon, lamenting with their usual chorus of "Woe is me, it was all for nothing, we’re doomed," and other defeatist mantras. It was yet another excuse to avoid putting in the work, to shy away from the clear opportunity staring us in the face.

For those of us paying attention, it was obvious: this was the moment. The stars (and planets this week!) had aligned, presenting us with a rare chance to knock it out of the park.

All it required was the courage to seize it.

That’s when we got the game-changing news: Nawaf Salam, the President of the ICJ, signaled to our MPs that he would accept the prime minister position if he got the votes. For me—and for many like-minded Lebanese, both at home and abroad—this was the moment we’d been hoping for. The race was now between Ibrahim Mneimneh, Nawaf Salam, Fouad Makhzoumi, and Najib Mikati.

Then, in a move that epitomized selflessness and vision, Ibrahim Mneimneh pulled out of the race and threw his support behind Nawaf Salam. Suddenly, what had seemed like a long shot began to feel real—Nawaf Salam’s momentum was no longer a pipe dream; it was rapidly gaining traction.

But, as always, the traditional parties couldn’t help themselves. The Lebanese Forces stubbornly insisted on nominating Makhzoumi, clinging to their rigid, short-sighted calculations rather than seizing the moment for real change. Meanwhile, Makhzoumi—often dismissed and sidelined by the Mumana3a—was now experiencing the same treatment from the opposing camp. Unsurprisingly, he wasn’t having it.

Intense negotiations stretched into the early hours of Monday morning, with tensions high and no clear outcome in sight, at least publicly. Neither the Lebanese Forces nor Makhzoumi were willing to budge, each digging their heels in as the clock ticked on.

I knew that Makhzoumi didn’t have the support. I knew he will eventually move aside. I also couldn’t trust the Lebanese Forces. I am still reeling from their disastrous decision to elect Michel Aoun, in coordination with Hezbollah, because they were promised a few ministries and public service posts they could benefit from. I thought, are these guys seriously doing the exact same mistake? Have they not learned from last time? Are they really throwing this chance away for a ministry here and a ministry there?

That’s when I started considering where we could possibly find replacements for the 19 Lebanese Forces votes. The thought alone made my stomach tighten, but the answer was glaringly obvious—and deeply unsettling for me. The votes had to come from what was left of the Free Patriotic Movement and Gebran Bassil’s MPs, and Walid Jublat.

Bassil, the man whose abuse of the judiciary and exploitation of his father-in-law’s power had forced me to seek refuge in the United States. Not once, but twice, they tried to drag me before military tribunals—as a civilian—because of his relentless pursuit of abuse of power and petty vengeance for calling him out. Now, the idea of relying on his bloc felt like swallowing poison, but the stakes left no room for idealism.

I reached out to them. I wrote this piece and recorded a podcast episode and quickly put it up everywhere. This was the gist of my argument:

But here’s the thing—Gebran’s presidential ambitions are effectively dead, and he’s been making noises about distancing himself from Hezbollah. Whether out of desperation or strategy, he’s always given the excuse that his hands were tied by Nabih Berri and the rest of the corrupt elite, even though for some reason he partnered with in nearly every ministry he controlled. While that’s hard to swallow, the reality is Hezbollah’s weakening grip means they can no longer anoint him as president. So he has no reason to stick with them. With his bloc shrinking and his political capital in freefall, this could be his moment to attempt some semblance of beginning for redemption for his crimes of selling Lebanon off to Nasrallah.

If the Lebanese Forces were faltering, we could still secure the majority of votes by securing votes from the FPM, Jumblatt’s bloc, and a handful of other persuadable MPs.

I still was convinced that Makhzoumi would pull out and the Lebanese Forces will fall in line with the rest of us behind Nawaf Salam, a candidate that will bolster and complement Joseph Aoun, instead of derail the hopes of the Lebanese people he had been elected because of. I didn’t wanna leave anything to chance though.

But, the negotiators needed to sleep. I couldn’t, I stayed up most of Sunday night waiting for the morning and the votes to begin.

What was undeniable was that the bold move by our October 17 MPs, and the master stroke by Ibrahim Mneimneh, had put us in the driver’s seat. Just hours later, Nawaf Salam emerged as the focal point—not the Mikati-Makhzoumi dichotomy being pushed by pro-bank, pro-Hezbollah commentators flooding every TV station with their negativity.

I could almost touch the finish line…

I want to take a moment to thank my representative Michel Douaihy and his colleagues, my longtime friend Mark Daou and Waddah Saddeq. You three are the “unsung heroes” who secured Nawaf’s approval, lobbied Ibrahim Mneimneh, the Kataeb, the LF, Fouad Makhzoumi, and others, ensuring that Nawaf Salam’s path was clear.

You made us proud and gave us hope for a chance to save Lebanon. Stay tuned—one of these three will be joining me on a podcast episode this week!

January 13: Nawaf Salam Gets 85 Votes

Even in my most optimistic calculations, I estimated we’d secure around 77 votes for Nawaf Salam. Instead, we got a resounding 85.

A good night’s sleep seemed to do wonders, as it gave the Lebanese Forces and Makhzoumi the clarity to see what we could accomplish if we stood united. For once, they set aside the business-as-usual approach—the endless game of musical chairs with cabinet positions and backroom deals over what each PM candidate could offer in exchange for votes—and chose to embrace the potential of real change.

That same morning, my trusted sources confirmed that Gebran Bassil had decided to vote for Nawaf Salam. I kept that to myself and stayed focused, ramping up the pressure on LF, PSP, and FPM MPs. I shared their contact details widely, urging everyone to call, text, or WhatsApp them with a simple demand: vote for Nawaf Salam.

By mid-morning in Beirut, I was certain we were going to win. I didn’t want to jump the gun or risk complacency, so I kept working—preparing visuals and drafting bullet points to publish the moment we hit the threshold for victory.

As soon as Gebran officially announced his bloc’s support for Nawaf Salam, I hit publish. Then, running on fumes after 36 hours without sleep, I went straight to a job interview I’d scheduled. Exhausted but elated, I felt unstoppable. It was a moment I’ll never forget.

Final Thoughts

There is always hope. There is always a way. When opportunity knocks, we cannot afford to be lazy or cling to the comfort of the status quo. We must do everything in our power to seize the moment and turn possibility into reality.

What felt truly euphoric, though, was the chance to engage in politics as it should be—without the ever-present shadow of Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, looming over every decision with threats of violence and intimidation. For the first time, it felt like taking a deep, clean breath of fresh air after being trapped in a suffocating, musty room where Hezbollah plotted assassinations and tortured its detainees. It was liberating—a glimpse of what Lebanon could be. And I’m absolutely hooked.

Our next battle lies ahead: forming the cabinet. The very people who are the reason we’re in this mess won’t go down without a fight. Hezbollah has already threatened to derail the process after Joseph Aoun ordered Mohamad Raad and co to come up to his office and vote when they tried to delay it until Tuesday—despite failing to even muster 10 votes for Mikati. In the end, even they abandoned their now-deflated spare tire, submitting blank votes instead.

The message was clear and undisputed: things have changed.

To all those who dismissed the significance of what we began in October 2019—those who scoffed, complained, and barely tried—you’re probably feeling a lump in your throat now, realizing how wrong that cynicism was. To you, I say: welcome, please come in, there’s plenty of room here for anyone ready to join us in the march forward.

To those who never lost faith, including our dear October 17 MPs: congratulations. You did it. Together, we turned what seemed unimaginable just three days ago into an undeniable reality.

Now, get ready for the next step in this long march toward a country we can all return to and proudly call home—myself included.

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I’d like to start by congratulating both Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam. It feels surreal to say this, but the two candidates I wholeheartedly supported are now our president and prime minister. I won’t waste time dwelling on the naysayers, the intimidators, or those who resorted to threats and smear campaigns. Instead, I want us to move beyond them and focus on undoing and repairing the damage they have caused with their violence, corruption, and sheer incompetence.

I’d also like to express my gratitude to my colleagues, friends, and readers/listeners who came together, crossed divides, and kept up the pressure to ensure that the best candidate for this new chapter of Lebanon emerged victorious. It’s an honor to stand alongside you in this fight, and I am proud of the blood, sweat, and tears we have poured into this since October 17, 2019. In my heart, I always believed we would one day have a president echoing the platform we fought for in our blood- and teargas-soaked streets—sooner rather than later. Even in the darkest, most hopeless moments, you never gave up, and you continue to inspire me and give me the energy to keep going.

Now that the pleasantries are out of the way, let’s get down to business. The roadmap has been clearly laid out and embraced by most, articulated in Joseph Aoun’s inaugural speech with a clear, unambiguous, eloquent, pragmatic, yet uncompromising approach.

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The President’s Agenda:

We’d like to see this as the platform of the Nawaf Salam’s cabinet. As a reminder, here’s everything Joseph Aoun mentioned:

Governance and Accountability

* Acknowledged Lebanon’s governance crisis, pledging to overhaul political and economic systems.

* Promised equality under the law—no more immunity for criminals, corrupt officials, or mafias.

* Committed to judicial reform:

* Independence for the judiciary (this one is especially important for me, having suffered like so many with the weaponization of the judiciary for free speech)

* Faster rulings and streamlined processes.

* Overhaul of prison systems.

* Vowed to reject any unconstitutional laws and respect the separation of powers.

Economic Reform

* Prioritized economic revival through:

* Restructuring public administration to eliminate inefficiency and favoritism.

* Embracing transparency, accountability, and digital transformation.

* Strengthening Lebanon's free-market economy while ensuring fair banking practices and protecting depositors' funds.

* Promised to tackle unemployment, poverty, and environmental degradation head-on.

Security and Sovereignty

* Reaffirmed the state’s exclusive right to bear arms—no militias, no exceptions.

* Strengthened support for the Lebanese army to:

* Secure borders.

* Combat smuggling and terrorism.

* Reclaim occupied territories.

* Pledged to develop a comprehensive defense strategy to protect Lebanon’s sovereignty.

Social and Cultural Development

* Emphasized unity among Lebanon’s diverse population:

* No favoritism among sects or citizens.

* Respect for individual and collective freedoms.

* Promised to:

* Enhance education, focusing on public schools and the Lebanese University.

* Invest in scientific innovation and research.

* Improve social safety nets and health services.

Lebanon's Image Abroad

* Called for stronger ties with Arab nations and strategic partnerships globally.

* Rejected using foreign influence to sow divisions within Lebanon.

* Advocated for expat rights, especially voting, while encouraging them to stay connected to their homeland.

Refugee and Border Policies

* Promised to address the Syrian refugee crisis:

* Focused on voluntary and dignified repatriation.

* Called for international cooperation to manage the crisis without resorting to discrimination.

We’re With You

Mr. President and Mr. Prime Minister, we stand behind you. You are in your positions because the Lebanese people, both at home and across the globe, have placed their trust in you to lead us toward recovery and restore hope for a future free from the past four decades of hardship.

Please don’t let us down. We are counting on you.

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Who is Nawaf Salam?

Nawaf Salam is a Lebanese diplomat, jurist, and scholar who has built an impressive career blending international law, diplomacy, and a commitment to reform. Currently serving as a judge on the International Court of Justice (ICJ) since 2018, Salam is one of the rare figures from Lebanon to hold such a prominent global role.

Before joining the ICJ, he represented Lebanon at the United Nations for a decade, serving as the country's Permanent Representative from 2007 to 2017. During this time, he played a critical role in Lebanon's tenure on the UN Security Council (2010–2011), addressing complex issues at the intersection of global diplomacy and regional challenges.

Beyond his diplomatic career, Salam has a rich academic background, holding degrees from the Sorbonne, Harvard, and Columbia University. He has taught and written extensively on international law, Middle Eastern politics, and diplomacy, cementing his reputation as both a thinker and a practitioner.

Known for his reformist views, he has consistently called for good governance and accountability in Lebanese politics, making him a respected voice in a country grappling with systemic issues. Salam's career reflects a rare blend of intellectual rigor, diplomatic skill, and a clear vision for justice and progress.

Why We Need Him Now

If I were Nawaf Salam, tasked with holding Israel accountable for its ongoing genocide through the ICJ, I wouldn’t abandon such a critical mission to become the prime minister of a country where most politicians are either entrenched in militia dynamics or neck-deep in mafia-style corruption. However, in light of the historic election of Joseph Aoun as president and the transformative period Lebanon is entering, I’d have to reconsider.

Lebanon desperately needs reformists who stand apart from the ruling class, especially for all the reasons I laid out yesterday—judicial appointments, the central bank governorship, leadership of security agencies, and our diplomatic corps. But there’s one more thing to add: the next prime minister will oversee the flow of massive reconstruction funds if Lebanon manages to break free from Hezbollah’s grip and its allied corrupt political elites—killon ya3ne killon. Now imagine billions of dollars coming in, only to be controlled by the likes of Najib Mikati and Nabih Berri. It would be a repeat of the post-Civil War era when reconstruction funds were looted, leaving Lebanon in an even deeper mess. So, people will remain homeless, and the only beneficiary will be Hezbollah’s Qard El Hassan, which will use the opportunity to recoup its losses from the shutdown of the Captagon trade.

How We Can Get the Votes

I’m no mathematician, but let’s do some back-of-the-napkin calculations. To get Nawaf Salam as prime minister, we need over 64 votes. Starting with the presidential election numbers, we have: the Opposition Bloc with 31 MPs, the Change Bloc with 12, Jumblatt’s Bloc with 8, and 2 MPs aligned with Neemat Frem. That gives us a starting total of 53 MPs backing Nawaf Salam.

Now, buckle up, because here’s a wild idea to secure the 13 additional votes needed to not just cross the 65 threshold but reach a comfortable 66: bring in the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). I know—our collective history with them is filled with baggage, mistrust, and outright hostility. They detained me four times for hurting their feelings on Instagram, smeared me relentlessly, and tried to spin their leader’s abysmal record as anything but a disaster. Their alliance with Hassan Nasrallah has cost Lebanon dearly, and their leader, Gebran Bassil, is now sanctioned by the U.S. for his Hezbollah ties and completely isolated politically.

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But here’s the thing—Gebran’s presidential ambitions are effectively dead, and he’s been making noises about distancing himself from Hezbollah. Whether out of desperation or strategy, he’s always given the excuse that his hands were tied by Nabih Berri and the rest of the corrupt elite, even though for some reason he partnered with in nearly every ministry he controlled. While that’s hard to swallow, the reality is Hezbollah’s weakening grip means they can no longer anoint him as president. So he has no reason to stick with them. With his bloc shrinking and his political capital in freefall, this could be his moment to attempt some semblance of beginning for redemption for his crimes of selling Lebanon off to Nasrallah.

So, Gebran, here’s your chance. For once, put your money where your mouth is and vote for Nawaf Salam. Hezbollah won’t save you anymore—those days are over. You’re isolated, and your best play now is to screw over the corrupt elite you once cozied up to and show that you’re capable of putting Lebanon first. Use your MPs to help this country break free from the dark Assad-Nasrallah era you so willingly supported. This isn’t just about redemption for you—it’s about finally doing something that benefits Lebanon and the Lebanese people for a change.

Final Thoughts

We’re running out of time, and the days of purity tests and virtue signaling are long behind us. It’s time to govern. The reality is stark: we only have 12–13 MPs on our Thawra side, out of 128. If we’re serious about change, we’ll need to vote alongside those we despise at times, as long as it’s for the greater good. This is one of those moments.

Predictably, the Hezbollah orbit is already spinning excuses. They’re claiming that the ICJ and Nawaf Salam are somehow sanctioned by the U.S. Congress, making it difficult to secure reconstruction funds to rebuild what Israel destroyed—destruction that wouldn’t have happened without Nasrallah’s failed “support front” for Gaza. This narrative shows either ignorance or deliberate disinformation, as Congress recently voted to sanction the ICC, not the ICJ. Nawaf Salam won’t face any such sanctions.

And let’s set the record straight: Nawaf Salam has done more to hold Israel accountable for its crimes than the so-called Axis of Resistance has managed in their entire existence. The smears against him are just a deflection from their own failures to achieve anything meaningful for Lebanon or Palestine.

The past few weeks and months have shown us that the unimaginable can become reality. Things we never thought possible have begun to shift. This is not business as usual—unless we allow it to be. If the corrupt political elites are allowed to suck the momentum from Joseph Aoun’s presidency, it will only lead us back to another October 17. But it doesn’t have to.

We have a chance to learn from October 17, to break free from the cycle of party, sect, and zaim politics that has strangled this country for far too long. For once, we can choose to act differently—for the sake of all of us, not just a privileged few. This is our moment to rise above the divisions and pettiness, to do what’s right for Lebanon and its people, and to chart a new course toward real reform and accountability. Let’s not let this moment slip away.

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This is a follow-up to my piece The Presidency Isn't Enough.

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Gino's Blog is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.