Explore every episode of the podcast Frontline: The War in Ukraine and Global Security

“They may actually set off a chain reaction in Russia where everyone says, ‘Well, this guy is just a weakling.’ And if they can incite the Russian people to get to him before Putin does something really awful, that’s their best defence.”

The best thing for Ukraine to do is to “continue to humiliate” Putin before he strikes back, says Sir William Browder.

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“Russia is testing us all the time.”

The UK is already in an “intense conflict with both kinetic and non-kinetic elements,” as Putin is likely to "test Article 5 quite soon", says The Times’s Edward Lucas. 

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“The Kremlin needs to allocate significant manpower and resources to protect its borders because its borders are not defended.”

New Ukrainian offensives, such as Operation Spider's web, expose “major strategic weaknesses” in Russia, as the Kremlin sweeps the fallout “under the rug”, says Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia Deputy Team Lead at the Institute for the Study of War.

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"It could be a very nasty accident on the Kola Peninsula, for instance, in the in the corridor between, between the Baltics and Poland. It's just something very odd could happen."

Trump's lack of action on sanctions and deterring Russia could push Putin into an attack on Europe in NATO cannot provide a realistic defence plan warns Robert Fox on Frontline.

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"Putin was photographed, in a Tupolev Tu 160, the supersonic bomber, and closely aligned himself with it. The fact that the Ukrainians are now picking them off almost at will picks away at that entire Russian sense of self and of Putin at the top of this."

Putin's position has been damaged with the destruction of the bombers that represented his power, says retired Air Marshal Ed Stringer.

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“They’re certainly not going to be able to put as many aircrafts into the air… it will have an impact.”

Ukraine proves it has “opportunities and abilities to strike Russia where it hurts” with their audacious airfield drone attacks, says The Times’s Maxim Tucker.

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"It will be a very, very, very big impact. Considering Russia's military presence in Crimea and their capacity of delivering their supplies, to other spans of the frontline."

A renewed campaign to destroy the Kerch Bridge would be devastating to Putin and very damaging to the Russian invasion, Operator Starsky tells Philip Ingram on Frontline.

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"There is no way that the Russian spin machine and propaganda machine can spin this into anything but a flipping disaster." 

Ukrainian attacks Russian military infrastructure is a "psychological blow" to Putin's "propaganda machine", says former British army colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.

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“The conversations amongst MPs are kind of mentioning the nuclear option more than before.”

It’s “inevitable” that Ukraine will start building its own nuclear weapons through the Soviet nuclear power stations in the Western part of Ukraine, says Professor Vlad Mykhnenko.

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“I think there is deep paranoia within the Russian intelligence establishment about China’s activities.”

Xi may be on the verge of betraying Putin, as a leaked FSB document claims China is an “active threat” to Russia, according to Ian Williams. 

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“Putin is showing his allies, what little there are around the world, that Russian cannot be relied upon.”

Russia is not coming to Iran’s defence, despite the regime's drone supplies to the Kremlin, says senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center Michael Bociurkiw.

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He has now weakened Russia dramatically as a result of his invasion of Ukraine, and yet he keeps going.”

Putin is at risk of “leaving the scene” after his “abnormal” activity leaves Russia too fragile to break Article 5, says former US ambassador to Nato Kurt Volker.

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“If the roundabout stops, he falls off.”

Putin is becoming “more wild,” pushing too many soldiers to the front without being able to supply food or fuel, says the Evening Standard’s Robert Fox.

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“If he is met by strength, he will back off.”

“Faffing around” and “grovelling” to Trump will not deter Putin as he only respects strength, says General Sir Richard Shirreff. 

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“They are taking one or two villages; that’s not going to make a difference.”

Putin’s war is becoming “impossible” as Russia is not making any breakthroughs on land, says the deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Programme and the head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, Orysia Lutsevych.

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“Just because you lose something, doesn’t mean you’ll get it back again.”

The Russians are failing to regain Luhansk, and even if they succeed, it does not “mark an inflection point in the campaign”, says George Barros, Russia team lead at The Institute for the Study of War.

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“The economy minister came out and said, ‘Look, the Central Bank has to do something here… because we are heading towards a recession.’”

Putin realises the Russian people are furious as Russia’s economy faces dire consequences, says Scott Lucas.

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"We are kind of breathing or breathing, rather thin air here. The Europeans have got to stop hoping that America will, step in and just get on and fill the gap."

Trump's failure to push Russia into serious ceasefire talks has left Putin emboldened and able to attack Europe warns Edward Lucas, Times Columnist and European security expert.

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"We can see that Trump is getting frustrated with Putin. He understands that his high hopes of delivering a quick deal in Ukraine have just not been achieved."

Trump's growing frustration with Putin and pledge tio supply more weapons to Ukraine suggests he know Putin is in a weak position, says John Lough Head of Foreign Policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre.

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“Starovoit had a lot of connections... it was portably better to just silence Starovoit.”

Putin may have had a “very good reason to get rid of” Russian minister Roman Starovoit, but it has resulted in “unsettling and destabilising” consequences in Russia, says Russia expert Amy Knight.

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“The Ukrainians are more hardened to Russia right now, have more visceral hatred to Russians than they ever did in 2014.”

Putin’s bombardment of Ukraine fails as “air campaigns like this don’t work”, says retired US Army counterintelligence special agent David DeBatto.

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Donald Trump appears to be preparing to sign new sanctions on Russian oil into US law, Michael Bociurkiw tells Frontline on #timesradio

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"There is very little evidence that Russia is going to be able to make any sort of strategic breakthrough."

Putin's attempt to take more land after Trump called for a ceasefire in 50 days is turning Russian frontlines into 'a real mess', warns Retired Air Vice Marshall Sean Bell on Frontline.

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"Fear of how powerful Putin could be and what he could do to your country has been a very big instrument but that doesn't exist anymore. So now you see that it's being tested here and there and, that that's not good news for him."

Putin risks losing satellite states and rebellious regions as Russia focusses more of its efforts on the war in Ukraine, Diane Francis tells Frontline on #timesradio

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“It appears today, that instead two Patriot systems they may well be providing five Patriot systems.”

Trump increases arms aid to Ukraine after his phone call with Putin backfires, says Major General Mick Ryan.

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“These are very sophisticated, expensive weapons, which are Ukraine’s only defence against ballistic missiles.”

Trump’s promise of patriot missiles and missile interceptors to Ukraine will act as a game changer, as they are the only thing that can crush Russia’s ballistic missile attacks, says foreign policy and security analyst Jimmy Rushton.

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"Nobody's going to buy Russian oil if that piece of legislation goes through. But it's not clear that that's the policy that's going to be implemented. Trump has been resisting."

The US third party sanctions package can only work if Trump doesn't water done the final policy, warns Sir Bill Browder, Head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Foundation

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“If you’ve been hit by 300-500 drones you get conditioned to that, so being hit by another hundred doesn’t mean that much. Of course they’re not being hit by that number because most are being shot down.”

Putin’s belief that he can win the war by dropping ordinances is a “myth”, says Major General Chip Chapman as it’s just a “sullen way the Russians go about destroying things.”

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“The Kremlin are now talking about bringing defence expenditure down come 2026 because they've spent so much money on providing an army that isn’t really doing more than maintaining the status quo.”

Putin runs Russia’s economy to the ground by spending “vast amounts of money” on futile military operations, says former House of Commons clerk Eliot Wilson.

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“He’s got to show he’s a winner because the whole old special operations gig, that propaganda line has worn absolutely thin.”

Russians have become disillusioned with Putin as they feel the repercussions of war and their leader’s failure to deliver the “knockout blow,” says The Evening Standard’s defence editor, Robert Fox.

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“Ukraine has effectively halted Russia in its tracks, largely because there's huge buffer zones now where if you move, you die and it's all around drones.“

Despite the mass of Russia's army, Ukraine have stopped them in their tracks with the superior drone warfare, says former RAF Pilot, Air Vice Marshall Sean Bell.

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"You're seeing quite a lot of sort of drives into Ukrainian territory, but they are sporadic."

Russia's grinding push into Ukraine hasn't done enough to win strategic objectives as the US tries to put more pressure on Putin to end the war in Ukraine, Rear Admiral Dr Chris Parry tells Frontline on #timesradio

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“The Russians now have to think about where they divert forces to detect these [US submarines].”

Trump has made a “bold statement” by deploying two nuclear submarines near Russia, as this will alter how Putin’s forces operate, despite the possibility that it could all be a bluff, says former submarine captain Ryan Ramsey.

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"There's a lot of crying about the betrayal of the Russian nation. They're worried about some kind of, a ceasefire that they think will not be good to the Russian cause."

Putin may have lost legitimacy in the Kremlin by failing to secure Russia's land grab in Ukraine and the Alaska talks could be his last chance, Says Prof. Vlad Mykhnenko on Frontline.

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"It's massive the way in that Vladimir Putin's made a series of gambles where he's got short term advantage and then he's lost in the long run."

Putin's territorial gains in Ukraine could cost him dearly as Trump says the US will back European military support for Ukraine. Prof. Scott Lucas discusses what it means for the Kremlin on Frontline.

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The Kremlin appears to have reversed position again as Russian officials pour cold water on Trump's trilateral summit and European involvement in any deal to end Putin's invasion, says Dr. Ian Garner on Frontline with Times Radio.

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“Russia is in real trouble.”

Putin’s weakening economy is crippling Russia’s war efforts as the leader can’t afford to keep his campaign going, says former commanding general of US Army Europe, General Ben Hodges.

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“If Putin were to die… they would all just gather in the Kremlin and fight with each other frantically… and the main task would be making sure everyone can keep the money they’ve stolen over the last 25 years.”

Russian oligarchs wouldn’t bat an eyelid if their leader died, as all they care about is ‘maintaining the status quo’, says Sir Bill Browder.

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Europe and the US might be forced to intervene as Russia appears to have doubled down on Putin's invasion after the failure of Trump's Alaska summit, warns retired Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell on Frontline.

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“The one thing that Putin fears most is the Russian people.”

Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure is “bringing the war home to Russia” as the Russian people are fighting over fuel, says former British diplomate to Ukraine Cormac Smith.

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