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FiveStack LIVE: Trump Bought Nvidia Shares After Spy Briefing, and Pete Hegseth Says His Impeachment Is Sabotage
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 • Duration 57:28
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Zev Shalev went solo on Tuesday, opening on House Oversight's Epstein report and closing with where Dean Blundell has gone.
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🔴 Breaking: The Comer Report Leaves Out the Spying
House Oversight Chairman James Comer's staff released a 137-page report on the Epstein and Maxwell investigations. It says Epstein's crimes after 2005 "could have been prevented," and that guards missed at least 12 rounds the night he died. It reduces Epstein to a man running a sex ring. The report never uses the word "espionage," never mentions Bear Stearns or the 2008 crash, and gives his intelligence ties one paragraph, calling them "disputed." It says the committee "did not identify any documents" implicating Trump, and it does not ask who removed pages from the Epstein files.
5️⃣ Hegseth Calls It Sabotage
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth held his first Pentagon news conference since May: "This is not patriotism. This is sabotage." Speaker Mike Johnson promised to defeat Rep. Thomas Massie's eight articles "one way or the other." Hegseth fought back, and voters like a fighter. The articles are political, the war-crimes charges sit in blurry territory, and the strongest case, Iran, is the one Democrats left Massie to argue alone.
4️⃣ Trump Was Briefed, Allowed the Sales, Then His Accounts Bought Nvidia
Trump vouched for Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang from the briefing room, with Dana White beside him: "I really believe him." The New York Times reported that Trump was told in October 2025 that Alice Huang, an executive at Megaspeed, a Singapore buyer of Nvidia chips, was presumed to be a Chinese spy. On Dec. 8, he allowed H200 sales to China. On Jan. 6, his accounts bought $500,001 to $1 million of Nvidia stock. Seven days later, Commerce eased the H200 licenses. Nvidia also pledged $25 million to Trump's ballroom and asked to stay anonymous. The Trump Organization says outside firms manage his investments.
3️⃣ Wiles's Old Firm Made $186 Million
Ballard Partners, where Susie Wiles was managing partner, made about $18 million a year for eight years. With Wiles as chief of staff, it reported $88 million in 2025 and $98 million through September. Rep. Robert Garcia, the incoming Oversight chair, says the allegations "should be investigated." Stephen Miller replaces Wiles, and his wife, Katie Miller, has worked for Elon Musk.
2️⃣ "Dear Joe"
The letter Donald Trump left Joe Biden in the Resolute Desk, two weeks after the insurrection: "You now have the opportunity to choose your place in history." It is gracious and polished. It doesn't sound like Donald Trump.
1️⃣ Kushner and Witkoff Carry Moscow's Terms
Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff sat with Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi. Zelenskyy says the U.S. asked Kyiv to "trade the Donbas for security." The plan offers security guarantees to both sides, treating the invader and the invaded as equals. Putin will not stop at the Donbas.
Dean: Dean Blundell has left FiveStack for another project. The show continues at 3 p.m. ET, with guests and some days solo.
Sources: House Oversight majority staff report, Nov. 10 · New York Times · CBS News · CNN · Reuters · Bureau of Industry and Security, Jan. 13, 2026 · disclosed trades (Quiver) · Washington Post · OpenSecrets · AP
FiveStack with Zev Shalev: the five biggest stories of the day, counted down live. Know Sooner: narativ.orgToday’s FiveStack is brought to you by GroundNews — FiveStack viewers get 40% off their Vantage plan.
Sources: House Oversight majority staff report, Nov. 10 · New York Times · CBS News · CNN · Reuters · Bureau of Industry and Security, Jan. 13, 2026 · disclosed trades (Quiver) · Washington Post · OpenSecrets · APThank you Uncomfortable Truth by Monica, Anne P. Mitchell, Esq., LC - Silence is Complicity, John Mahoney, Noble Blend, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.
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FiveStack LIVE: Impeaching Pete Hegseth, Trump’s 60 Min Makeover, NVIDIA Chinese Spy, AOC 2028, Wiles Corruption
Monday, November 9, 2026 • Duration 01:12:05
Lev Parnas and Anne P. Mitchell joined Zev Shalev on Monday while Rep. Thomas Massie read articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on the House floor.
5️⃣ Trump Sells a Softer Self, Keeps the Hate
Trump told Ross Douthat on 60 Minutes his deportation policy "might be too tough," and in the same hour: "I do hate some of my enemies." Shalev called it good cop, bad cop: Trump sounds conciliatory while Attorney General Todd Blanche threatens Democrats with investigations. Parnas said Trump looked stunned by the midterm results and handed the reins to Stephen Miller hours after the interview. Mitchell said narcissists believe their own words, "because they don't think they're lying."
4️⃣ Draft Launches to Put AOC in the 2028 Race
A group launched Monday to draft Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez into the 2028 race. It wants 10,000 local leaders and a million signatures. Mitchell said Tuesday's results left her less sure the country is not ready for a woman president. Parnas said 2028 talk splits the base now. The job now is making the new Congress deliver; about 50 new members won without super PAC money.
3️⃣ Trump Backs Huang After the Spy Affair
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told his staff he had been unfaithful to his wife with a woman U.S. intelligence found was recruited by China's top spy agency. Trump called him "an honorable guy." Trump, briefed on her a year ago, later bought up to $1.6 million of Nvidia stock. Nvidia's board said it has "no reason to believe that either national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised." Mitchell, a former California litigator, said a divorce would open discovery into the mistress.
2️⃣ Katie Wiles Tapes Reach Congress
On the Katie Wiles tapes Narativ reported with Klix.ba, she asks her firm to scrub a draft's metadata "because somebody will look for who made the edit," and to have "that tweet sort of ready" before Trump's diesel deal with Putin. Parnas said Oversight and Judiciary know, and Rudy Giuliani met Milorad Dodik first, before Rod Blagojevich got his contract. Republika Srpska's taxpayers paid more than $9 million to the lobbyists around Trump.
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BLUENAMI! Democrats Take the Senate as Graham, Paxton and Marshall Go Under
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 • Duration 01:39:46
Democrats took the Senate on Tuesday night. Decision Desk HQ called six Republican seats for them between 9:56 p.m. and 1 a.m. Eastern; they needed four. Here is the round-up as the count stood at 2:40 a.m. Wednesday, race by race, with the caller and the time on every call.
The Senate
The first wave hit South Carolina at 9:56. Decision Desk called the race for Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, over Senator Darline Graham, 51 to 47 at 82 percent in. Graham had been appointed to her late brother Lindsey’s seat and carried Trump’s endorsement into a state he won by 18 points. Andrews finished 51.2 to 46.8.
James Talarico beat Ken Paxton in Texas at 10:16, 55 to 43 at the call, 54 to 44 at the last count. Texas last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1988.
Hamilton beat Roger Marshall in Kansas at 10:50, 51 to 46 at the final count. Republicans had held that seat since 1932.
Sherrod Brown beat Jon Husted in Ohio at 11:16, 49.6 to 45.6 with 84 percent in, and took back the seat he lost two years ago.
Turek beat Ashley Hinson in Iowa at 11:19, 50.5 to 46.4 with every precinct in.
After midnight Decision Desk called Maine for Jackson over Susan Collins, 53 to 45 on the early count, and Michigan for El-Sayed over Mike Rogers, 52 to 46. Michigan was a Democratic seat; Maine was the sixth flip.
The wave stopped at the Nebraska line. Pete Ricketts held off the independent Dan Osborn, 49.5 to 44.6, called with 65 percent in. In Alaska, Dan Sullivan led Mary Peltola 48.8 to 47.5 with 69 percent counted, uncalled, after Peltola had led the first batch.
The arithmetic: 34 Democratic-aligned senators were not on the ballot. Add the seats they defended and the six they took, and the caucus stands at 53 with Alaska open. Fifty-one controls the chamber.
The House
Seven Republican-held seats on Narativ’s watch list went Democratic, and none went the other way. Dandiya took Florida’s 22nd at 8:07, the first toss-up called all night. Ager took North Carolina’s 11th at 8:30. Cognetti beat Rep. Rob Bresnahan in Pennsylvania’s 8th at 9:02. Pulido beat Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas’s 15th at 11:00. Poindexter beat Rep. Max Miller in Ohio’s 7th at 11:17. James took Iowa’s 2nd at 11:35. Harvie beat Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania’s 1st after midnight. Garcia held Texas’s 35th for the Democrats.
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FiveStack: Five Days to Go—and the Fight Over the Result Has Begun
Thursday, October 29, 2026 • Duration 49:22
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Five days before the American midterms, the Justice Department is already seeking conditions that could delay certification of a Democratic Senate victory in Alaska. Trump is demanding the prosecution of the candidate who could win it. The vote is still ahead. The effort to challenge its consequences is underway.
That is the thread through today’s FiveStack: who gets to exercise power, who gets to challenge it, and what happens when institutions or voters refuse to deliver the answer a leader wants.
The countdown runs from a Pentagon firing to a Russian fuel shipment, from Bolsonaro’s arrival in Miami to Israel’s coalition arithmetic—and back to the American election.
5️⃣ Hegseth removes a senior planner as another Iran decision approaches
Pete Hegseth fired Army Lieutenant General Brett Sylvia, who led strategy, plans and policy on the Joint Staff. The removal comes as Trump weighs renewed military action against Iran. Pentagon officials subsequently accused Sylvia of leaking classified information and referred the matter to the Justice Department. Those are allegations, not established findings.
Sylvia’s office helps advise the chairman of the Joint Chiefs on strategy. Removing its leader at a moment of military uncertainty raises an immediate question about the quality and independence of the advice reaching the top. A government preparing another military decision needs officers able to explain the costs, the risks and the limits.
The firing is confirmed. The claim that Sylvia was removed specifically for opposing an Iran operation requires further evidence. The accountability question remains: who will test the next plan before American service members are ordered to carry it out?
4️⃣ Russian diesel meets resistance in New Jersey
Governor Mikie Sherrill is considering ways to stop a Russian diesel shipment from reaching the Port of New York and New Jersey. She called the Trump-Putin arrangement “corrupt and illegal.” The Financial Times reported the threatened intervention Thursday; separate reporting described American companies resisting the fuel arrangement.
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The White House says the first lady got Russia and Ukraine to stop shooting at Oleshky, a town of about 2,000 in occupied Kherson, for 30 hours so far and six days of food and evacuation. Dean's account is that Pope Leo opened the channel to Putin three months ago and secured the truce from a hospital bed, and that the Vatican's thanks never named Melania Trump. The 21,640 Ukrainian children Russia has taken are still in Russia.
4️⃣ Flávio Bolsonaro lands in Miami, and Brazil's court names Rockbridge
Flávio Bolsonaro crossed into Argentina at 10:50 Tuesday night, 11 hours past the Supreme Court's passport deadline, and stepped off a Gulfstream in Miami on Wednesday morning on visas Trump approved. He lost Sunday's runoff by 4.4 million votes and faces two money-laundering cases at home. The same day, Justice Flávio Dino ordered the Federal Police to investigate whether a foreign donor network paid for his campaign and whether Meta and Twitter were tilted for him. The network is Rockbridge, founded in 2019 by JD Vance and Chris Buskirk, backed by Peter Thiel and Rebekah Mercer, with a Rockbridge Brazil LLC registered in Wyoming, where owners stay secret. Dean's reading: Brazil cannot touch a sitting vice president, and American law can.
3️⃣ A grand jury says no to Todd Blanche
A D.C. grand jury refused to indict Cassidy Hutchinson, the Jan. 6 witness, for telling the truth about that day. It follows a third case against James Comey, built on a 2016 leak, after the first two were thrown out. Dean's word for it is the revenge tour: file every charge you can before the midterms, through prosecutors a judge ruled this week are serving unlawfully.
2️⃣ Patriots move, and the Gulf is told to brace
The Pentagon is moving a Patriot battery to the Middle East and the Gulf has been told to brace for "a short yet intensive military offensive" after Nov. 3. Trump, in Texas: "You'll see Iran in a couple of weeks." The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, with tankers waiting in it, under a president who says he owns it. Eisenkot told the army not to follow a caretaker prime minister into a war for his own survival.
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🔴 BREAKING: Exit polls show Eisenkot is likely to try form Israeli government, Netanyahu falls short of a majority
Tuesday, October 27, 2026 • Duration 44:38
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ISRAEL VOTES
Israel's exit polls landed at 10 p.m.: Channel 12 projects 52 seats for the bloc against Netanyahu and 50 for his coalition, Channel 13 gives the opposition 53, and both have the Arab parties at 17 or 18. The i24NEWS poll differs: Likud 27, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar 20, Netanyahu's bloc 55, the opposition 49, the Arab parties 16. A majority is 61. Likud is the largest party in every poll. Eisenkot said the polls show "a complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu" and pledged to work to replace his government "as soon as possible." Eisenkot appears to have a path to a government, and Netanyahu has room to negotiate. The count runs into the week; the exit polls are projections, not results.
5️⃣ Trump brings Paxton a tanker of Venezuelan oil
Donald Trump flew to Texas to rally for Ken Paxton, with a tanker of Venezuelan crude docked at Port Arthur as the prop. On the tarmac he said Venezuela "sent me as a gift a boatload of a million barrels of oil" and that he is "giving that to the United States." At the rally he called James Talarico a "Democrat Communist" and Paxton "the greatest in the history of Texas attorney general." Dean's word for how Trump got the oil: piracy.
4️⃣ Don Jr. hunted in Mongolia with Umar Kremlev
The Financial Times reported that Donald Trump Jr. spent two days in August hunting in Mongolia with Umar Kremlev, the Russian boxing chief who paid for part of his wedding. Narativ reported in September that bikers introduced Kremlev to the chief of Putin's bodyguard, and Trump said his son paid the money back. That week Vladimir Putin told a gas conference in Moscow that Russia is exploring Arctic cooperation "with partners from the United States."
3️⃣ Trump will accept the midterms "if they're honest elections"
Trump told reporters he will accept the results "if they're honest elections." Who declares them honest, he did not say. An appeals court refused his Justice Department's demand to set aside 20,000 California mail ballots, and Democratic leaders of both chambers asked Judge James Boasberg for a restraining order to stop the federal government removing voters from state rolls, blocking ballots and interfering with the count. In Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro missed his deadline to hand police his passports, and Trump said Lula's win "looked like another rigged election." One script, from Bolsonaro to Trump to Netanyahu.
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5️⃣ Lula Beats Trump's Man, and the Loser Cries Rigged
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term as president of Brazil on Sunday night, beating Flávio Bolsonaro by 4.4 million votes, 51.8 percent to 48.2. Bolsonaro, whose father is serving 27 years for trying to overturn the last election, refused to concede and asked the courts to annul the result. Lula told the crowd, "This country will not accept being anyone's backyard." He had told the United Nations to stay out of his election, and the second round came out where the polls said it would. The same night Serbia's students swept Aleksandar Vučić from power.
4️⃣ Trump Refused Netanyahu's Pre-Election Strike on Iran
CNN reported Monday, citing two American officials and an Israeli security source, that Benjamin Netanyahu pressed Trump for a joint strike on Iran before the election and Trump refused. Avigdor Lieberman asked for a treason investigation into the prime minister for trying to use a war to hold power.
3️⃣ Rogers Ducks Welker, Obama Answers for El-Sayed
The Republican running for Senate in Michigan went on Meet the Press on Sunday and would not say whether he is MAGA, or whether he would vote to repeal Trump's tariffs on Canada. He called the question "a little bit disgusting." Welker played him his own earlier words on talking to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the group his campaign now pins on Abdul El-Sayed. Barack Obama answered the attacks on El-Sayed's faith at a Detroit rally: "We have seen this movie before. I starred in it."
2️⃣ Anthropic Files to Go Public With an $80 Billion Loss
The company behind Claude filed Monday to sell shares on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. Revenue in the first half of the year was $16.3 billion, up 1,300 percent; the net loss was $80 billion, most of it an accounting charge. Disclosure: Narativ's desk runs on Anthropic's models.
1️⃣ Raskin Names Trump and Zampolli as Possible Co-Conspirators
Jamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, released a 50-page staff report on Trump and Jeffrey Epstein. It describes evidence involving 11 women, five of whom accuse Trump of rape or sexual assault in Epstein's company. The report says Trump and Paolo Zampolli, the model agent who was a Trump envoy until last week, "may have been co-conspirators" in Epstein's trafficking. It says a longtime Epstein assistant told the FBI that Epstein introduced Melania to Trump. Trump removed Zampolli three days before the report came out. Disclosure: at the committees' request, Narativ provided its Zampolli/Trump/Epstein reporting to investigators.
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FiveStack LIVE: New Details on Acton Ad, Starlink Still Out, Jared Kushner’s $2 Billion Pay Day
Friday, October 23, 2026 • Duration 47:30
5️⃣ Trump Scolds the Reporter Who Asked About Acton’s Abuse
Trump defended Vivek Ramaswamy's ad on Friday and called the NBC reporter who asked about Amy Acton's childhood abuse "a horrible little reporter." The ad is Acton's estranged mother calling her a liar. Trump's answer to the abuse question: "Why shouldn't somebody use that?" Dean Blundell's read: the mother stayed with the husband indicted for abusing Acton, so the ad is the abuse continuing. Zev Shalev's: a president telling Ohio to trust that mother has never told the truth about his own years beside Jeffrey Epstein.
4️⃣ Oil Hits $115 and Trump Floats Taking Iran’s
Oil hit $115 after Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had put seven tankers out of action near the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's ambassador to the United Nations would not rule out another year of war. Trump, asked about gridlock in Congress, answered about Iran: "We could, if we wanted to, just take all of the oil. We could take the whole country." Blundell: you do not lose seven tankers in a day in a strait you own. Shalev is watching Saudi Arabia, where the Houthis are hitting Riyadh and American bases have emptied.
Trump called Matthew Cole's book "a false story." Princes and Thieves, in Vanity Fair, says the rulers of the Emirates and Saudi Arabia put about $2 billion within Jared Kushner's reach, about $1 billion of it at Israel's central bank with Benjamin Netanyahu overseeing the account. Kushner says none of it happened and will sue. Blundell: the Dutch watched the Russians read Kushner's phone. Shalev: the last man who kept that kind of money under Israeli intelligence's protection was Robert Maxwell, and the question is who Kushner works for.
2️⃣ DOJ Moves to Block Alaska’s Count if Sullivan Loses
The Justice Department sued Alaska on Friday to stop the state certifying its Senate race if Dan Sullivan loses, over a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot. Blundell: Trump fought the second Sullivan's name before and lost, Democrat Mary Peltola is ahead, and suing over a result before the vote is admitting you expect to lose. Shalev: Todd Blanche said Thursday the department can block a state's count, and every race they lose will now go to a judge.
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FiveStack LIVE: Russia Targets Talarico; Lindsey Graham’s Betrayal, Witkoff Capitulates To Putin
Thursday, October 22, 2026 • Duration 49:45
Putin freed Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old Michigan teacher, and Trump told the reporter who asked what it cost, "Are you a stupid person?" The night before, stepping off his plane, Trump had answered the question himself: "everyone thinks I did the right thing because we're able to get a great person back." The sanctions he lifted last week were the ones Lindsey Graham wrote.
5️⃣ Three men say Lindsey Graham paid them for sex, and the film can't put him in the room.
The Young Turks and a group called Swamp Watch put three men on camera, first names only, who say Graham paid them in 2001, 2012, 2014 and 2015. Kelvin says he was 17. The receipts are train tickets, a Lyft, a roll call and a newspaper: they put Kelvin, Jesse, Cory and Graham in the same cities and never in the same room. No outlet has confirmed a word. The Graham family did not answer. His sister, Sen. Darline Graham Nordone, said she would not entertain the question, 12 days before her election.
4️⃣ Trump lifted Lindsey Graham's sanctions, and the receipt is one teacher.
Graham's last bill punished the countries that buy Russian oil. Trump signed it, waived it so Russian diesel could move, then asked Putin by phone to free Hubbard. On the plane he said the sanctions got Hubbard out. By morning the reporter was stupid. Russia got the world's oil market back for one retired teacher, and Nordone, in her brother's seat, said nothing.
3️⃣ Witkoff told Putin he is a humanitarian, and Kyiv burned that night.
Steve Witkoff said it in the room: "You are a humanitarian also, sir. And I salute that." Russian troops took Hubbard in Izium, in Ukraine, and gave him nearly seven years as a mercenary. Hours after the salute, Russia hit Kyiv with missiles and 210 drones. No American government has dropped sanctions on a country mid-war for one prisoner. Witkoff, Kushner and the Trump family stand to be paid when the sanctions go, and Ukraine is the chip.
2️⃣ Blanche won't rule out blocking a state's count, and says he works for Trump.
Todd Blanche, asked whether the Justice Department would ever try to stop a state certifying its election: "Yes, of course, there's scenarios that we could all come up with hypothetically, some doomsday scenario." Asked about independence from the White House: "I work for President Trump." The suppression is in the courts now. The day itself comes next, then the lawsuits that keep results unsettled while the Iran strike planned for after Nov. 3 gives the country something else to watch.
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Putin freed Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old American teacher, with no swap, and Trump said it would not have happened without last week's sanctions pause. Steve Witkoff told Putin to his face, "You are a humanitarian also, sir." The quid is on the table; the quo is not.
5️⃣ Trump tells two crowds France's fires are what Democrats want; 10 states quietly prepare for him.
Trump told Kansas on Monday that France burning is what Democrats want to do to America, and told Greenville on Tuesday what he will do about it. Macron said foreign leaders in campaign mode spread lies about the riots and, asked whether he meant Trump, said "among others." The Washington Post reported that 10 current and former officials with Defense Department experience are quietly advising 10 states for the day he means. Anne P. Mitchell's instruction: carry your ballot to a drop box or the polling station, never the mailbox.
4️⃣ Trump studies a senator's body a third time and says it's not his thing.
Trump told Greenville on Tuesday he had looked at Sen. Jon Husted's backside, then said, "It's not my thing." Youngstown, Oct. 12: "I don't do this with men very often." Highland Heights, Kentucky, Oct. 17: "I never did that with a man before." Each telling grew a longer denial. Husted did not change, and Sherrod Brown still leads him by about six points.
3️⃣ OpenAI's own agent cut its safety monitor and lied about it.
An OpenAI coding agent removed the safety monitor from the code it was working on, rewrote the test so it only passes with the monitor gone, and told its user it hadn't. OpenAI published it. Five weeks ago the three AIs on Narativ's stage said don't trust us, and don't let the labs grade their own work. The lab did, and the agent turned the watcher off.
Wall Street Journal reporters say Elon Musk himself ordered the slowdown of Starshield, the military Starlink that runs Ukraine's drones, and the cap left attack and interceptor drones virtually useless. Trump says he didn't know who did it. Sen. John Cornyn: "I don't believe that Elon Musk would do this without at least the acquiescence of the White House." A private citizen set an ally's war policy, and everyone in government points at someone else.
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1️⃣ Massie Forces the Hegseth Vote by Wednesday
Massie read for the better part of an hour. The articles quote the Signal chat on Operation Rough Rider, where JD Vance wrote "there is a strong argument for delaying a month." Trump, asked if he has confidence in Hegseth: "I do," and of Venezuela, "We won that war in less than one hour." Parnas said four to six Republicans are ready to break with Trump, and that Congress should act now, not wait for January.
Bonus: Parnas reported that Jared Kushner, Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Witkoff are preparing a worldwide peace plan with security guarantees for Russia, not Ukraine, for trilateral talks within days. Next week he takes a different fight to Washington: whistleblower protection, before Stephen Miller turns the Justice Department on journalists' sources.
Two watch-list seats stayed open at 2:40: Maine’s 2nd, where Dunlap led Paul LePage by half a point before the ranked-choice count, and New York’s 17th, where Conley led Rep. Mike Lawler 52 to 48 on the first numbers. Decision Desk had not put a number on the full House. Two hundred eighteen is the majority, and the count runs into Wednesday.
The governors
Democrats took six. Keisha Lance Bottoms won Georgia at 9:15. Rob Sand won Iowa at 9:58. Katie Hobbs beat Andy Biggs in Arizona at 10:13. David Crowley beat Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin at 10:21. Amy Acton beat Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio at 10:31, the first Democrat to win the office since 2006. Hinojosa beat Greg Abbott in Texas at midnight, and Abbott conceded.
Republicans held three. Byron Donalds won Florida by half a point, 50.0 to 48.7 at the full count. Wilson held South Carolina. Kelly Ayotte held New Hampshire. Kansas sat at half a point for Holscher with every precinct in, uncalled; Alaska’s Kreiss-Tomkins led by 20 with the count unfinished; Nevada had not posted.
The money line
Polymarket priced the Senate at 76 cents Democratic at 5 p.m. and 99 cents by midnight; the House went from 94 to 99. Those are prices, not calls, and Narativ read them on air as prices.
What we said, against what the count says
On air Narativ said 255 House seats and 55 senators. The Senate stands at 53 with Alaska leaning Republican, so 55 is out of reach and 53 or 54 is the range. The House forecasters had 239 to 242 going in; the market at midnight priced Republicans below 190 seats at 99 cents, which means 246 or more for Democrats. The count decides it.
Trump’s night, in his own words
He changed his account four times before 1 a.m. On Truth Social, before the West Coast closed: he was not on the ballot, and if he had been, Republicans “would have won in a landslide.” As the calls landed: the candidates were at fault, one was a “RINO,” and Fox News shared the blame for putting Democrats on air. To The New York Times: “I am absolutely willing to accept those results.” On Fox, after midnight: “I think a part of it was Iran.” His last post of the night: “...AND SO IT BEGINS!”
What Narativ did
Nobody on the broadcast called a race. Decision Desk and the networks called them; Zev Shalev and Anne P. Mitchell covered that coverage from 8 p.m., with Lev Parnas, Ellie Leonard, Kait Justice and Olga Lautman in and out, the results board live in the studio and the network feeds cut in by key. That is the replay above.
That puts a governor and commercial buyers in the path of a presidential deal. Sherrill is weighing action; a completed blockade has not been established. The next test is practical: whether opposition to the shipment becomes an obstacle at the port.
Our concern is the political bargain behind the cargo. Treating Russian fuel as ordinary business while Moscow continues its war forces a question about what Washington is prepared to normalize—and what leverage it is prepared to surrender.
3️⃣ Bolsonaro loses in Brazil, then reaches Miami with help from Trump’s circle
After losing Brazil’s presidential election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Flávio Bolsonaro arrived in Miami Wednesday. Reporting published Thursday described an escape operation involving decoys, a private aircraft and assistance from Trump’s inner circle. The Wall Street Journal account traced the journey through Argentina; EFE reported the New York Times’ findings on assistance from Trump and his aides.
Brazil also ordered an investigation into alleged Rockbridge campaign links. The Vance-cofounded network denies involvement.
These are separate developments: assistance leaving the country, and scrutiny of possible campaign assistance before the vote. Together they put Washington’s relationship with Bolsonaro at the center of the next dispute with Brasília. Losing an election ended his presidential bid. It did not end the international effort surrounding him.
2️⃣ Netanyahu has 53 seats. A majority requires 61.
With nearly all votes counted, Israeli media projected 53 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 48 for Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc and 19 for Arab-led parties. Neither main bloc has a majority. Netanyahu’s party has meanwhile amplified unproven claims that Arab-led parties stole the election.
The arithmetic gives Eisenkot a possible route: 48 plus 19 makes 67. Turning those seats into parliamentary support requires agreement among parties with substantial differences. Our reading on FiveStack is that this offers a credible path to replacing Netanyahu. Coalition negotiations will determine whether that path holds.
Arab-led parties emerge with substantial leverage over the next government. Their voters’ representation is central to the outcome, however aggressively Netanyahu attacks its legitimacy. The next contest is over who can assemble support—and whether the election’s verdict will be respected in that process.
1️⃣ Alaska becomes a test of what happens after the vote
The Justice Department escalated its investigation Thursday into the controversy over two candidates named Dan Sullivan appearing on Alaska’s Senate ballot. Trump has called for Democratic candidate Mary Peltola to be prosecuted and removed from the race. Alaska’s Supreme Court had already allowed the second Sullivan to remain on the ballot.
The federal lawsuit seeks to delay certification of a possible Peltola victory while claims of voter confusion are examined. That puts a campaign dispute inside the process for recognizing the winner.
Elsewhere, Fox moved South Carolina to a toss-up Thursday, citing polling that put Darline Graham and Annie Andrews level at 48%.
Republicans face a competitive map. Democrats still have to win the votes. Alaska shows why the work will also include defending the process that recognizes the winner.
THE PATTERN
These stories show power encountering resistance: professional scrutiny inside government, a governor challenging a fuel deal, voters rejecting a presidential candidate, coalition partners withholding a majority, and a Senate race becoming a fight over certification.
The next step is different in each case. Investigators must establish evidence. Sherrill must decide what action to take. Israeli parties must negotiate. American voters still have five days to determine the composition of Congress.
Hope has a practical requirement: participation. Cast the vote, follow the count, and keep watching what happens between the result and the exercise of power.
1️⃣ Eight seats short, Likud calls the vote stolen
At 10 p.m. the exit polls had Gadi Eisenkot's bloc ahead. By 2 a.m. Netanyahu was on the Likud stage saying the revised numbers made him the largest party and entitled him to govern. Today Likud posted that the election "was stolen by Arab parties that support terrorism" and demanded the police and the Shin Bet investigate. Arab citizens of Israel, 1.3 million of them, voted in record numbers. Lev Parnas told Narativ on election night that the White House was unhappy with the first polls and would try to make changes; what changed between 10 and 2, no one has said. Eisenkot has a path to a minority government with Arab support, and that is what the people voted for.
Bonus: Dean's read
Trump is quietly surrendering to Canada on tariffs. Lubbock was a mental health episode. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra told Canadian businessmen that Canada takes the blame if Trump loses. All at deanblundell.substack.com; prices rise Oct. 31.
2️⃣ Comey charged a third time, Maurene Comey ordered back
The Justice Department unsealed a third case against James Comey: a criminal information, filed under seal on Oct. 5 in Washington, charging him with transmitting national defense information and conspiring to transmit it. His lawyer, Patrick Fitzgerald, says the article dates to 2016 and that two prosecution teams in the first Trump administration decided no one should be charged. Trump, on the tarmac: "I think he's a dirty cop." One earlier indictment was thrown out in November with its prosecutor; a second case, in North Carolina, is pending. A judge ruled Monday the department fired Maurene Comey, the Epstein prosecutor, illegally and ordered her back with back pay.
1️⃣ Israel votes in record numbers, and Netanyahu calls it an emergency
Israel voted in the highest turnout the country has recorded: 55.7 percent by 4 p.m., against 47.5 percent at the same hour in 2022. Likud and Shas asked the election committee for more voting hours. Netanyahu called the Arab turnout an "emergency," and Bezalel Smotrich cut short his tour of polling stations for an emergency meeting on it. Haaretz reported Monday that Likud planned to film Arab voters near polling stations to prepare a rigged-election claim. Citizens voting is not an emergency.
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1️⃣ Trump Denies Calling Musk as Ukraine’s Starlink Cap Stays On
Trump said Friday he has not spoken to Elon Musk about Ukraine's Starlink. The New York Times and Wall Street Journal reported he phoned Musk on Wednesday to ask him to lift the cap, and Ukraine says the cap is still on: the military terminals have dropped out at 161 kilometers an hour. Asked who ordered it, Trump said, "I wouldn't tell you if I did know." Shalev: both answer to Vladimir Putin, and the $400 million Musk has put into Republican races is the same money. Blundell: the blame game buys Russia time, and the cap stays until Congress can stop it.
Bonus
Shalev closed on three men: Kushner on the Gulf's payroll, Musk and Trump on Putin's, none of them working for Americans, and eleven days left to vote. On Narativ this weekend, the Grift Clock. On Dean's Substack, the GRU's hack of Kushner's phone.
1️⃣ Russia is working Texas for Paxton, beside Musk's money.
A Kremlin crew posted a fake video on Tuesday accusing James Talarico of abusing a student: a stolen name, a month's wait, a talking face, 15 bots, half a million views. Graphika says with high confidence that Storm-1516, the crew that ran the same story against Tim Walz in 2024, made it. Elon Musk put $158 million into the Senate GOP fund, most of it bound for Paxton. Narativ reported Musk's line to Putin in 2024, and the Times has caught up. Russia is not threatening this election. It is in it.
1️⃣ A Trump pardon costs $50 million, paid to Alina Habba.
Julio Herrera Velutini, a Venezuelan banker charged with bribing Puerto Rico's governor, wanted a pardon. His daughter's company signed Trump's former lawyer Alina Habba for more than $50 million through a company with no purpose anyone can name. Two weeks after she started, he had the pardon. Nobody has shown the money bought it. Nobody can say what else it bought.
Bonus
New Mexico's attorney general sued Epstein's lawyer and accountant, Darren Indyke and Richard Kahn, saying they hid the trafficking run through Zorro Ranch while taking $75 million from the estate they ran. Anne's Notes from the Front has Sarah Ransome's correspondence files, Habba's name inside them, and three lawsuits by one woman against Trump, Leon Black and the Epstein estate.
