Explore every episode of the podcast Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

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	Title	Pub. Date	Duration
	Be Careful What You Wish For (FvF Ep. 211)	28 oct. 2026	00:51:29
In Episode 211 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, explain why investors should be careful what they wish for when it comes to market breadth. After years of complaints about narrow leadership, breadth finally arrived, with 324 of 500 S&P 500 stocks gaining on October 22 even as the index fell 1.4% and tech dropped 3.3%. They discuss why defensive-led participation is a warning sign, since tech has historically been a top-three sector in nearly every major bull market. From there, Ryan and Sonu dig into Meta’s $95 billion equity raise, three mega AI financing deals announced in a single day, and widening credit default swap spreads at CoreWeave, SpaceX, Nvidia, and Meta. They unpack Anthropic’s S-1, including its explosive revenue growth and $637 billion in infrastructure commitments, and look at Brazil’s 20% market crash and what it says about the limits of prediction markets. The episode wraps with a dot-com era rotation playbook, a rebound in software stocks, contrarian sentiment signals, and a preview of the Fed meeting, where oil above $100 and hot nominal GDP keep the central bank leaning hawkish. [Key Takeaways] Breadth is not always a good sign, and healthy bull markets need tech leadership. On October 22, 324 of 500 S&P 500 stocks rose and the median stock gained 1.1%, yet the S&P 500 fell 1.4% as tech dropped 3.3%. Tech has ranked among the top three sectors in nearly every bull market over the past century, so defensive-led breadth is a yellow flag, though Ryan still expects tech to retake the baton into year-end. AI financing is surging, and credit markets are asking for more. Meta plans to raise up to $95 billion in equity, SpaceX is arranging a $40 billion chip lease with Apollo, and Anthropic and Broadcom announced a $63 billion infrastructure financing. CDS spreads for CoreWeave (1,150 basis points, up from 550 in June), SpaceX, Nvidia, and Meta have all jumped. Anthropic’s S-1 shows annualized revenue rising from $1.5 billion in Q1 to $45 billion in Q2, but its $637 billion in infrastructure commitments leaves the key question of whether demand can keep up. Brazil’s crash is a reminder that prediction markets aren’t crystal balls. The Brazilian ETF (EWZ) fell nearly 20% after an election result that prediction markets, which had Bolsonaro as a heavy favorite, missed even though polls showed a tight race. Rotation can precede a bust, but contrarian signals are flashing. From April to December 2000, the S&P 500 fell 11% while healthcare, utilities, and staples surged, and Sonu argues the low volatility and momentum barbell helps investors ride the AI wave while avoiding a wipeout. Meanwhile, software gained over 6% last week, hedge funds are holding their highest shorts in five years, and the S&P 500 has been higher a year after each of the last 19 midterm elections. The Fed is expected to hold, but the risks lean hawkish. Oil is still above $100 a barrel, nominal GDP is expected to run near 7%, and the 10-year yield is close to 5%. Markets are pricing in more tightening than even the most hawkish Fed members project. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Quick Cold Open 0:31 - Paper Straws And Unintended Consequences 1:23 - Why Breadth Can Mislead 9:51 - Meta Spending Shock And Market Reaction 14:26 - Mega AI Funding Deals Multiply 18:11 - Anthropic S-1 Growth Meets Big Commitments 24:22 - Brazil Crash And Prediction Market Limits 28:00 - Social Hour Preview With Alvin Graylin 31:43 - Dot-Com Playbook Rotation Before The Bust 37:16 - Software Revival Plus Sentiment Signals 42:30 - Spooky Season Detour And Real Life Risk 46:16 - Fed Path Oil Prices And Hot Nominal GDP 49:59 - Final Takeaways And Friday Reminder 50:14 - Standard Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Talking Midterms with Libby Cantrill (FvF Ep. 210)	21 oct. 2026	01:00:39
In Episode 210 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, welcome back Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, for her fifth appearance on the show. With the midterm elections about two weeks away, Libby explains why the data is flashing signs of a potential blue wave: President Trump’s net approval is roughly 20 points underwater, the generic ballot sits near Democrats +9, and an enthusiasm gap favors Democrats. The group discusses why flipping the House is a low bar, why the Senate remains a difficult map for Democrats, and why Texas and even Kansas are suddenly in play, with Sonu noting that prediction markets and models now put Democratic Senate odds at roughly 63% to 70%. From there, Ryan, Sonu, and Libby dig into the policy and market implications. Libby makes the case that voter backlash against AI data centers, with about 70% of voters disapproving, will not fade after Election Day and could bring moratoriums, tougher permitting, and higher costs for the AI infrastructure build-out. They discuss why yields are rising amid the AI capex boom, how a Democratic Congress could mean more spending on the Affordable Care Act subsidies, Medicaid, and defense, and why bond markets may sell off on higher deficits. Libby also explains why risk markets tend to prefer a split Congress, with Ryan correcting the historical S&P 500 returns by party control. The episode wraps with a look at the Fed under Chair Warsh and its communication gap, the limits of presidential power over spending and equity stakes in companies, the odds of nationalizing AI firms, the coming Social Security reckoning and the debate over taxing capital versus labor, and early thoughts on who may run in 2028. [Key Takeaways] Wave election indicators are flashing blue. Trump’s net approval is about 20 points underwater, the generic ballot is near Democrats +9, and there is an enthusiasm gap. Flipping the House is a low bar with Republicans holding just a three-seat majority, and Sonu notes Democratic Senate odds of roughly 63% to 70% across Kalshi, Nate Silver, and Split Ticket. The Senate map is still tough for Democrats. They need to defend seats in Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire while winning four additional seats in places like Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, and Texas. Libby says candidate quality is helping, and that this is more about Republican turnout falling than voters switching parties. Data center backlash is bipartisan and may last. Polling shows about 70% of voters disapprove of data centers, versus roughly even sentiment in September 2025. Libby expects more friction from state moratoriums, permitting, rolled-back incentives, and higher costs in 2027 and beyond. Markets may prefer gridlock. Libby expects risk assets to respond better to a split Congress than a Democratic sweep, and Ryan notes the S&P 500 has averaged 13.7% annualized with a Republican president and split Congress, versus only 4.9% with a Democratic Congress, a figure skewed by 2008. Deficits could rise under either outcome. Libby sees a path where Democrats back more defense and Iran-related spending in exchange for ACA subsidies and reversing Medicaid cuts, which could push bond yields higher. A Democratic Senate would likely block controversial Fed nominees, easing worries about Fed independence. Libby also reminds listeners that Chair Warsh is just one vote of 12 on the FOMC. Jump to: 0:00 - Cold Open And Election Timing 3:10 - Libby Cantrill Joins The Show 6:30 - Data Pointing To A Wave 12:20 - The Senate Map And Candidate Fit 21:05 - How Markets React To Gridlock 23:35 - Voter Revolt Against Data Centers 30:20 - AI Capex And Higher Bond Yields 35:35 - Deficits Defense Spending And Health Care 41:50 - The Fed Under Chair Warsh 48:55 - Limits Of Presidential Power 53:30 - Social Security And Capital Tax Politics 55:25 - Who Runs Next And Party Risks 58:35 - Final Thoughts And Farewell 59:20 - Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	The Bull Market Turns Four (FvF Ep. 209)	14 oct. 2026	00:59:30
In Episode 209 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, celebrate the bull market turning four. With the S&P 500 up about 128% on a price basis and 131% including dividends since October 2022, the hosts note that no bull market in the last 50 years has made it past its third birthday and failed to reach a fifth. They explain why this one is being driven by earnings rather than valuations: of the 128% price gain, roughly 85 percentage points came from profit growth, and 40 of those from margin expansion, while forward P/E multiples have fallen from about 22x to roughly 19.5x this year as Treasury yields climbed. From there, Ryan and Sonu unpack the market's biggest stress points and risks. They look at why triple-C spreads are blowing out while the broader high yield market and loans are holding up, and why that points to an interest rate problem rather than a credit problem. They discuss strong Treasury auction demand, the rapid growth of hyperscaler bond issuance as a share of net Treasury borrowing, and SpaceX's $150 billion in fundraising and its threat to telecom stocks. Sonu also warns that billions in AI compute contracts begin billing in 2027 to 2029, making 2027 and 2028 the potential reckoning for the AI capex cycle. The episode wraps with a look at the Russell 2000's slide against the S&P 500, the dollar breaking above 100 on the Dixie, the case for staying diversified, and a preview of next week's midterm election episode with Libby Cantrell of PIMCO. [Key Takeaways] The bull market turned four with the S&P 500 up about 128% (131% with dividends). Every bull market in the last 50 years that passed its third birthday went on to a fifth, and year five has historically been strong, with the last fifth-year bear market coming in the 1960s. Earnings, not valuations, are driving returns. About 85 percentage points of the gain came from profit growth, including roughly 40 from margin expansion, versus only 33 from multiple expansion. This year, forward P/E has fallen from about 22x to 19.5x, a roughly 15-point drag offset by 29 points of profit growth. Triple-C spreads are near 900 basis points, but high yield overall is flat and interest rate-hedged high yield and loans are beating cash. The hosts see a duration problem from rising yields rather than a broad credit problem. Hyperscaler bonds have jumped from 1% to 2% of net new Treasury borrowing to about 14% over the last year. SpaceX has raised roughly $150 billion in four months, and its five-year CDS hit a record 200 basis points. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And A Bull Market Birthday 1:34 - Nobel Prize Irony And Fed Mistakes 4:27 - Triple C Spreads Versus Real Stress 10:59 - The Economist Cover And Bond Fear 15:41 - Bond Auctions And Who Buys Treasuries 17:01 - Hyperscaler Debt And SpaceX Funding 23:30 - OpenAI Headlines And Market Breadth 28:30 - The AI Capex Bill Comes Due 35:12 - Dollar Strength Gold And Diversification 37:07 - Bull Market Turns Four The History 42:11 - Profits Margins And Multiple Contraction 51:28 - Small Caps Versus Higher Yields 53:19 - CPI PPI And What We Watch Next 57:14 - How To Support The Podcast Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Market Breadth is Overrated (FvF Ep. 208)	07 oct. 2026	00:57:37
In Episode 208 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, make the case that market breadth is overrated. With the S&P 500 less than half a percent from an all-time high and the Nasdaq printing a new record, the hosts explain why tech and tech-adjacent stocks, roughly half of the index, are carrying the market even as 10 of 11 sectors finished September in the red. They point to Micron's strong earnings, South Korea's surging chip exports, and rising AI capex estimates as evidence that profit growth is overpowering the rise in yields. From there, Ryan and Sonu break down the revised PCE data, arguing that inflation remains stubbornly hot, and cover the dovish turn from Fed officials that dropped October hike odds from about 70% to roughly 20%. They also discuss why the weak headline payrolls mask a healthy labor market. The episode wraps with a look at fourth-quarter seasonality, cautious investor sentiment near all-time highs, and their view that a global bull market supports staying diversified with a tilt toward tech and AI. [Key Takeaways] September's S&P 500 was nearly flat (down 0.3%) with 10 of 11 sectors in the red, but tech rose about 5%. The hosts expect a breakout in the tech sector ETF to lift the broader market as earnings season begins. Q4 is historically strong, averaging a 4.2% gain and rising more than 80% of the time. A negative Q1 followed by a 10%+ Q2 has never produced a down Q4, with an average return of about 6%. Inflation remains hot despite PCE revisions: Core PCE is running about 3% year over year, market-based core inflation is two to three times its historical pace, and ISM prices indexes are at multi-year highs, pointing to an inflationary growth environment. Fed hike odds for October fell from about 70% to roughly 20% after softer PCE data, light payrolls, and dovish Fed comments, though one more hike in December remains possible. The labor market is healthier than the headline 29,000 payrolls suggest, with the prime-age employment-population ratio at 80.7%, low layoffs, and Challenger job cuts at their lowest September level since 2022. Sentiment remains cautious near highs, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index in fear territory. The hosts view that lack of excitement as a net positive, and note that AI capex and profit growth are outweighing the drag from higher yields. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and What Matters Now 0:31 — Steve Jobs Legacy and Apple’s Run 6:24 — Why Breadth Headlines Miss the Point 10:56 — Tech Concentration and Sector Damage 15:26 — Q4 Seasonality and Earnings Setup 20:11 — Yields Rising Credit Stress Global Moves 22:11 — Europe Debt Fears and Politics Inflation 27:29 — Sentiment Still Cautious Near Highs 32:39 — PCE Revisions Still Hot Inflation 42:09 — PMIs Say Demand Strong Prices Hot 45:00 — Fed Hike Odds Payrolls Yield Curve 54:58 — Final Takeaways and Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Rory Johnston Returns (FvF Ep. 207)	30 sept. 2026	00:51:45
In Episode 207 of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, welcome back Rory Johnston, founder and CEO of Commodity Context, to make sense of an oil market that remains historically tight more than 200 days into the war with Iran. Rory explains why Brent sits near $108 with extreme backwardation, why roughly 13.5 million barrels a day are now moving through the Strait of Hormuz versus a pre-war normal of about 21 million, and why he calls himself a "Hormuz half-empty" kind of guy. From there, the conversation turns to what Rory calls the "Beijing swing," as China cut net crude imports by about 5.5 million barrels a day, and to record-high diesel prices, including what a U.S. diesel export ban would mean for prices at the pump. The episode wraps with the market signals Rory watches that may indicate when the crisis is truly over: rising OECD inventories and the front of the crude curve flipping into contango. Key Takeaways Brent is near $108 with prompt spreads close to $8 a barrel, signaling an acute physical deficit even though Hormuz flows have recovered to about 13.5 million barrels a day, up from near zero for non-Iranian crude in March and April. Rory argues Iran is gradually losing control of the strait, but the cost is enormous: Iraqi barrels have been discounted by $30 to $50, VLCC rates have hit record highs, and the war is far from over. China cut net crude imports by roughly 5.5 million barrels a day, and Rory believes drawdowns of strategic crude and diesel stockpiles, not just weak demand, explain much of that swing, making it inherently unsustainable. Diesel remains the tightest part of the market, with roughly 2 million barrels a day lost from the Middle East and Russia, U.S. exports up about 50%, and diesel cracks running at several times normal levels. A U.S. diesel export ban would lower domestic prices but send global diesel prices soaring and eventually force refinery run cuts. Rory expects a rationing of export licenses rather than a full ban. In Rory’s opinion, the clearest signal the crisis is over would be OECD inventories rising and the front of major crude curves flipping into contango, which would show the supply deficit is truly behind us. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and a Family Update 2:35 — Rory Johnston Returns and Reintroduces Himself 6:40 — From $200 Oil Fear to Reality 10:45 — What Tight Backwardation Is Signaling 14:55 — Hormuz Transit Data and Dark Tankers 25:10 — China Demand Swing and the Brent WTI Gap 38:15 — Why the War Keeps Dragging On 42:10 — Diesel Shortage and Export Ban Math 47:55 — The Cleanest Signal the Crisis Ends 50:15 — Where to Follow Rory and Final Thanks Rory Johnson is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by this individual may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Tech or Bust? (FvF Ep. 206)	23 sept. 2026	00:57:29
In Episode 206 of the Facts vs Feelings Podcast, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, dig into the Mag 7's surge to a new all-time high, edging out the S&P 500 itself. The hosts point to Meta's blockbuster rally, up double digits on the back of a new AI agent that's been downloaded nearly a million times in less than a week, along with chip and semiconductor names like AMD, Intel, and Arm Holdings that all posted big gains as the AI capex story keeps accelerating. They discuss why tech and communication services are carrying the index while breadth complaints miss the bigger picture, and why the S&P 500 grinding sideways for weeks before a sharp move is a bullish, not bearish, signal. From there, the conversation turns to the Fed. Ryan and Sonu revisit last week's rate hike and dot plot, making the case that despite the headlines calling it hawkish, the underlying numbers, real policy rates, dot plot math, and a lack of any hawkish commentary on AI capex actually point to a more dovish stance than markets are pricing in. They also cover Bitcoin's breakout past $85,000, why the failed Clarity Act may be a hidden positive for crypto, and a batch of strong economic data: retail sales beating expectations, jobless claims at multi-year lows, and S&P 500 revenue growth being driven almost entirely by technology. The episode wraps with a look at extreme bearish sentiment readings despite a resilient market, and why that combination has historically set up strong seasonal rallies into Q4. [Key Takeaways] The Magnificent 7 hit a new all-time high and is now outperforming the S&P 500 on both a price and relative basis, fueled largely by Meta's double-digit rally after the launch of a new AI agent downloaded nearly 900,000 times in six days. Chip and hardware names surged alongside Meta's news, underscoring how AI capex spending continues to ripple through the semiconductor supply chain. Despite a 12-0 vote to hike rates and a dot plot showing one more hike projected for 2026, the hosts argue the Fed's own real policy rate and GDP/inflation projections actually point to a more dovish stance than the market is pricing in. Retail sales came in well above expectations (1.1% vs. 0.8%), core retail sales rose 5% annualized over the last three months, and jobless claims hit their lowest non-seasonally adjusted level since 2022, pointing to a resilient consumer and labor market. Bitcoin broke above $85,000 following the Fed meeting, and the hosts argue the failed Clarity Act may actually be bullish for crypto by keeping it outside mainstream finance and regulatory scrutiny. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and the Setup 1:15 — Mag 7 Retakes Leadership 6:35 — Meta’s AI Agent Sparks a Surge 11:20 — Breadth Complaints Versus Reality 15:05 — Fed Overhang and Market Calm 20:30 — Seasonality Fears and Sentiment Signals 27:30 — Yields, Inflationary Growth, AI Spending 31:35 — Bitcoin Breakout and Risk-On Clues 37:15 — Was the Fed Really Hawkish 45:00 — Dot Plot Math and Real Rates 52:05 — Revenue Growth Story Led by Tech 55:10 — Retail Sales Show Consumer Strength 56:50 — Jobless Claims and a Firm Labor Market 57:00 — Final Takeaways and Signoff Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Social Hour With Jay Woods and Scott Brown (Ep. 5)	21 sept. 2026	01:02:41
The Social Hour is back after a summer break, and this livestream edition came loaded. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, are joined by two technical analysis heavyweights: Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets and CNBC contributor, and Scott Brown, Founder and Strategist at Brown Technical Insights. Fair warning: Scott was cheerfully reminded he was the (second? fifth?) choice to fill in for CNBC anchor Morgan Brennan, Sonu showed up with a Negroni, Jay was stuck with a Dunkin' iced coffee until the closing bell, and Ryan told the story of how he lost a rental car key and somehow got $200 off the bill. But in between? Plenty of substance. They dig into the Fed's recent hike and the dot plot, with Sonu making the case that this Fed is still dovish and Jay pointing to the war, oil, and the White House as the X-factors no one can quantify. Scott and Jay walk through what the charts are saying: weakening breadth, Dow Theory divergences, key S&P 500 support levels, and a consumer discretionary sector that's cracking. They also cover the bull case for Q4 (seasonality, credit holding up, Mag 7 turning up), the AI capex boom and what would signal it's over, Bitcoin and gold setups, oil's next target, and how election-year politics could hit the AI buildout. Key Takeaways: The Fed hiked: A unanimous vote, with most officials penciling in at least one more quarter-point increase by year-end Still dovish? Sonu argues that with core PCE forecasts up 100 bps, unemployment lower, and inflation not back to 2% until 2029, this Fed isn't really hawkish The X factor: Jay flags the war, oil and diesel prices, and White House volatility heading into the midterms Breadth is deteriorating: Only 49% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, and the advance-decline line is rolling over Dow Theory warning: Industrials and transports aren't confirming the S&P 500, which sits just 3.5% off its highs Consumer discretionary under pressure: Relative weakness vs. staples and energy is a key concern Jump to: 0:00 — Disclosures and Quick Reset 0:43 — Social Hour Returns with Drinks 5:25 — Fed Takeaways and Dot Plot Signal 12:50 — Why The Fed Still Looks Dovish 15:40 — War, Oil, and the Political Wildcard 18:37 — Breadth Weakness and Sector Stress 22:31 — Dow Theory Divergences Explained 25:49 — A Rental Car Story and Mag 7 29:52 — Bitcoin and Gold as Market Tell 34:32 — Portfolio Reality and Promo Break 44:05 — Tech Dominance and AI Capex Boom 53:17 — Oil Targets, Yields, and Election Risk 59:30 — Key Takeaways and Next Livestream Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Jay Woods: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-woods-cmt-5972679/ • X: https://x.com/JayWoods3 Connect with Scott Brown: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-brown-cmt-22b62891/ • X: https://x.com/scottcharts Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Is AI Going To Kill All Of Us? (FvF Ep. 205)	16 sept. 2026	00:58:37
In Episode 205 of the Facts versus Feelings Podcast, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, tackle the AI story dominating headlines: a viral tweet from a former Anthropic employee warning about civilization-level risk, an OpenAI/Hugging Face sandbox incident where AI agents were caught cheating and covering their tracks, and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's call to slow the AI frontier and create third-party auditors. The hosts draw parallels to past industries (AT&T, airlines, tobacco) that welcomed regulation to cement their dominance, and debate whether China will actually slow down its own AI push or keep charging ahead on deployment rather than AGI. From there, the conversation shifts to markets. The 10-year Treasury yield cracked 5% for the first time since 2023, and the team explains why that's less alarming than it sounds given nominal GDP growth running near 8%. They dig into hot CPI and PPI data, sticky services inflation (vet bills, wireless plans, dental care), and eye-popping PPI spikes in printed circuit boards and semiconductors tied to the AI buildout. The episode wraps with a look at what's driving the S&P 500's 2026 return, why margin expansion has more than offset multiple contraction, and why credit spreads and defensive sectors aren't flashing recession warnings yet. [Key Takeaways] A viral tweet from a former Anthropic employee, plus an OpenAI/Hugging Face incident involving AI agents caught cheating and hiding it, has fueled fresh "AI risk" headlines, though the hosts note political and business incentives may be shaping the narrative. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is calling for slower AI development, more interpretability tools, and third-party audits, a request the hosts compare to past industries (telecom, airlines, tobacco) that used regulation to entrench their dominance. The 10-year yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023, but with nominal GDP growth near 8%, the hosts argue this looks more like normal repricing than a warning sign, especially compared to the late 1990s. Core and supercore inflation remain sticky, with services like vet care, wireless plans, dental work, and lawn care all running well above pre-pandemic norms, alongside PPI spikes of 65%+ annualized in printed circuit boards tied to the AI buildout. The S&P 500's ~13% year-to-date return has been driven almost entirely by earnings growth and margin expansion (up 16 percentage points), which has fully offset a 15-point drag from multiple contraction as rates have risen. Jump to: 0:02 - Welcome And The AI Alarm 1:40 - When AI Agents Cheat And Hide 5:20 - Slowing The Frontier And Regulation 14:20 - China Deployment Versus AGI Risk 21:43 - Ten-Year Yield Hits Five Percent 31:51 - Inflation Details CPI Versus PCE 38:45 - PPI Shock From AI Supply Chain 45:05 - Why Stocks Rise Despite Higher Rates 48:39 - Credit Spreads And Defensive Signals 55:10 - Livestream Plans And Closing Thoughts Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Everything's Running Hot! (FvF Ep. 204)	09 sept. 2026	01:01:00
In Episode 204 of the Facts versus Feelings Podcast, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into why "everything's running hot" across the US economy. The hosts unpack the August jobs report, including a much stronger than expected 162,000 jobs created, upward revisions to prior months, a tick higher in labor force participation, and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate now sitting below 4.5% for a record 59 straight months. They also dive into which sectors are hiring, the truth behind tech layoff headlines, and why the Challenger job cuts data may be overstating labor market weakness. Later in the episode, the team covers scorching-hot ISM manufacturing and services data, surging commodity prices (copper, oil, diesel, gasoline), and what it all means for the Fed's rate decision next week, with markets pricing in real odds of a hike rather than a cut. They also touch on Lululemon's earnings miss, the AI-driven software rally, and pause to reflect on the 25th anniversary of 9/11. [Key Takeaways] August payrolls came in at 162,000, blowing past expectations, with prior months revised higher, a rare reversal after a long stretch of downward revisions. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, marking 59 consecutive months below 4.5%, a record in the data series going back to the 1940s, while labor force participation ticked up for the first time in 11 months. Job growth over the past three months has been led by cyclical, higher-paying sectors, healthcare, professional/business services, construction, and manufacturing, accounting for the vast majority of gains. ISM manufacturing and services indices both showed activity and prices running hot, with services prices hitting their highest level since August 2022, reinforcing the "running hot" theme in growth and inflation. With nominal GDP growth strong and inflation elevated near 3%, markets are pricing in real odds of a Fed rate hike rather than a cut at the upcoming meeting, a sharp shift from where sentiment stood just weeks ago. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Running Hot Theme 1:45 - Why Jobs Data Looks Underrated 8:00 - Payroll Revisions And Trend Changes 14:45 - Participation Rate And Unemployment Reality 20:30 - Sector Jobs Tech Weakness And AI 26:30 - Layoffs Data Myths Versus Scale 32:45 - Fed Odds And Running It Hot 41:00 - ISM Signals Prices And Commodities 48:45 - Stocks Versus Yields And Market Positioning 55:20 - 9/11 Memories And Lasting Impact 59:10 - Wrap Up Livestream And Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Want the Rainbow? Put Up With the Rain (FvF Ep. 203)	02 sept. 2026	01:08:50
In Episode 203 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, tackle a surprise caller's question on why oil and gas prices aren't higher given ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The hosts break down global oil dynamics, including China's massive strategic petroleum reserves, economic cooling, and EV adoption, as well as the impact of refining margins ("crack spreads") and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. Later in the episode, the team pays tribute to the legendary Dolly Parton and uses her timeless wisdom ("if you want the rainbow, you gotta put up with the rain") to frame long-term market resilience. Plus, they recap a surprisingly strong August for equities, analyze the tech sector's software surge, review blockbuster Nvidia earnings, and look back at historical market shocks like the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management crisis. [Key Takeaways] Despite severe supply shocks in the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices have been cushioned by China's strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), slower domestic economic growth, and aggressive moves into electric vehicles (EVs). Elevated gas and diesel prices at the pump are driven not only by crude oil costs, but also by high refining margins ("crack spreads"), which have remained stretched due to attacks on Russian refining infrastructure. Defying historical seasonal weakness, the S&P 500 gained roughly 2.7% in August. Leadership rotated beyond chip stocks into beaten-down areas like equal-weight software, cybersecurity, and energy. Nvidia posted record quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion (up 106% year-over-year), with CEO Jensen Huang emphasizing that demand and AI compute acceleration remain robust. Referencing historical events like the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management crisis, the hosts remind investors that every year features scary headlines and bad days, but long-term investors must endure short-term "rain" to capture market gains. Jump to: 0:00 — Surprise Caller on Gas Prices 1:35 — Why Oil Is Not $200 4:10 — China’s Demand and SPR Release 6:10 — Crack Spreads and Refining Margins 8:02 — Listener Shoutouts and Bike Bus 9:28 — Dolly Parton and Market Perspective 13:31 — 1998 LTCM and Bad Market Days 15:35 — August Recap and Sector Leaders 18:40 — Software Surge and AI Agents 22:41 — Nvidia Earnings and AI Demand 31:59 — Vendor Financing Hidden in Footnotes 39:12 — Jackson Hole and Rate Uncertainty 49:57 — Rising Yields and 1990s Parallels 58:21 — Jobs Data Risks and September Myths 1:07:23 — ISM Signals Hot Growth and Wrap Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	All About DeBase (FvF Ep. 202)	26 août 2026	00:54:39
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, mark episode 202 with "It's All About the Base(ment)," digging into last week's surprise Treasury announcement to double buybacks of long-end bonds after the 30-year yield hit 5.33%, its highest since 2007. Ryan and Sonu explain why this move — an operation-twist-style intervention rather than QE or yield curve control — spooked markets into the "debasement trade," sending gold up 5-6% and Bitcoin up more than 20% on the week while the dollar fell roughly 1%. They break down Stanley Druckenmiller's sharply critical Wall Street Journal op-ed on Bessent's approach, along with pushback from economist Guy Berger, and debate whether today's 10-year yield near 4.7% is simply normalizing back toward 1990s levels or whether nominal GDP growth suggests rates should go even higher. The conversation also covers a blowout Philly Fed manufacturing report and strong flash PMI data pointing to continued economic strength, market breadth and sentiment signals suggesting the bull market remains intact above key S&P 500 support, and a broader look at the $40 trillion national debt in context of rising household net worth. Ryan closes with thoughts on market technicals, portfolio diversifiers, and previews of Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings coming later in the week. [Key Takeaways] Treasury's move to double long-end bond buybacks starting September 9, following the 30-year yield's spike to 5.33% (highest since 2007), sparked what Ryan and Sonu call the "debasement trade" — a rotation into gold and Bitcoin and out of the dollar. Gold rose 5-6% and Bitcoin surged more than 20% over the week, while the U.S. dollar index fell about 1%, an unusual reaction given that rising yields typically strengthen a currency rather than weaken it. Sonu frames the Treasury action as closer to a 1960s/2011-style "Operation Twist" than true quantitative easing, since it shifts duration without expanding the money supply, but notes it still risks pushing short-term yields and imported inflation higher. Stanley Druckenmiller's Wall Street Journal op-ed argued Treasury's buybacks amount to artificial suppression of the "only fiscal disciplinarian" left in Washington, sparking debate over whether the intervention is as powerful as he suggests. Comparing current nominal GDP growth (~5.5%) to the late 1990s (~5.8%) with today's lower 10-year yield (~4.3% average vs. ~6% then), Sonu argues rates may need to move even higher than current levels to reach true equilibrium. A blowout Philly Fed manufacturing report (47.4, highest since 2021) and strong flash PMI data (56, highest since April 2022) point to renewed industrial strength, largely tied to AI-driven investment. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And A Playful Title 1:22 - The 1,000-Point Dow Day Memory 4:01 - Personal Low Moments And Path Dependency 7:06 - Treasury Steps In As Yields Surge 14:18 - Druckenmiller Critiques Yield Defense 20:40 - Operation Twist And A Falling Dollar 23:12 - Gold And Bitcoin Jump On Debasement 27:54 - Are Rates Simply Back To Normal 36:02 - AI Boom Data Signals Real Strength 39:20 - Jackson Hole Expectations And Nvidia Setup 41:49 - Market Breadth Levels And Investor Sentiment 44:10 - The $40 Trillion Debt Context Check 49:30 - Portfolio Diversifiers And Final Takeaways 53:00 - Closing Thanks And How To Support Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Is The Consumer Tapped Out? (FvF Ep. 201)	19 août 2026	01:14:05
In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, joins Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, live from Penn State as Ryan navigates college move-in day and a few very real headlines along the way. From there, they dive into the increasingly complex financing behind the AI boom, including NVIDIA's role in funding AI infrastructure, the rise of "neo-clouds," private credit, and the shift of AI financing risk from corporate balance sheets toward the broader financial system. Ryan and Sonu then examine what the market is saying about risk. Semiconductor stocks have staged a powerful rebound, financials are on an unprecedented winning streak, European banks continue to outperform, and private equity and private credit names are breaking higher. They ask whether these market signals are consistent with the growing recession concerns that dominate financial headlines. The conversation turns to the consumer, where weak retail sales headlines tell only part of the story. Sonu explains why Prime Day timing, lower gasoline prices, and volatile monthly data can distort the picture, while restaurant spending, household balance sheets, debt levels, and delinquencies suggest the consumer remains more resilient than sentiment surveys imply. They also explore why consumers can feel worse while continuing to spend on restaurants, travel, concerts, and other experiences. Finally, Ryan and Sonu tackle inflation from the household's perspective, highlighting stubborn services inflation in areas like lawn care, health care, vehicle repairs, restaurants, and veterinary services. They discuss falling expectations for a September Fed hike, rising long-term Treasury yields, massive federal deficits, the growing cost of government interest payments, a steepening yield curve, and heavy Nasdaq hedging. The episode closes with a broader look at what these signals mean for the bull market and the economy. [Key Takeaways] AI financing is becoming increasingly financialized. NVIDIA's involvement in AI infrastructure financing, alongside major private-capital firms and banks, is helping shift the funding of AI buildout toward private credit, special-purpose vehicles, and debt-backed structures. The AI financing risk may be moving rather than disappearing. NVIDIA's proposed backstop structure can reduce tail risk on its own balance sheet, but some of that risk is transferred to investors, lenders, institutions, and private-credit vehicles financing AI infrastructure. The consumer is showing more resilience than the headlines suggest. Retail sales weakened in July, but Prime Day's earlier timing, lower gas prices, and monthly volatility complicate the headline number. Restaurant spending remains strong, while household debt and debt-service burdens remain relatively manageable. Household leverage does not look excessive by historical standards. Total household debt declined in Q2 2026, credit-card debt was down during the first half of the year, and household debt-service costs remain below 2019 levels. Delinquency data also require context because charged-off debt can remain in reported measures for longer than it historically did. Inflation remains a problem at the household level. While some headline inflation readings have been encouraging, services such as lawn care, home health care, vehicle repair, restaurants, dental care, and veterinary services continue to run above pre-pandemic inflation rates. Jump to: 0:00 - College Move-In And Headlines 4:20 - The Circular AI Money Loop 8:30 - Neo-Clouds And Compute Financing Explained 16:40 - Chip Rally And Financials Breakout 19:45 - Why European Banks Still Lead 22:20 - Retail Sales And Consumer Fears 33:20 - Savings Rate Debt And Balance Sheets 43:30 - Delinquencies The Data And The Asterisk 49:40 - Inflation From A Consumer View 56:55 - Fed Hike Odds Shift And Yields Rise 1:01:20 - Deficits Long Bonds And Portfolio Positioning 1:08:15 - Nasdaq Hedging And Final Takeaways 1:11:57 - Wrap And Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Celebrating #200 With Art Hogan (FvF Ep. 200)	12 août 2026	00:44:30
Celebrating 200 episodes, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take Facts vs Feelings on the road to Boston for a live show, joined by special guest Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth. Art opens by explaining his opinion on why the market keeps climbing despite bubble fears and Fed uncertainty: Second-quarter earnings growth came in far above expectations, broadening out across all 11 S&P 500 sectors rather than staying concentrated in mega-cap tech. That broadening, he argues, is why the equal-weight S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are outpacing the market-cap-weighted index this year. The conversation moves to the Fed, where new Chair Kevin Warsh's terser, less transparent communication style rattled markets around his last two meetings. Sonu and Art debate whether AI should be viewed as an inflationary force, adding "workers" to the economy rather than acting as the historically disinflationary technology wave investors expect. They also dig into hyperscaler CapEx, rising CDS spreads on tech debt, and why Art thinks the field of dominant AI players will eventually narrow. Art also makes the case against comparing today's AI buildout to the dot-com bubble, citing real business models versus the 2,600 companies that went public between 1995 and 2000. Carson's Barry Gilbert, VP, Asset Allocation Strategist, joins to discuss how to actually invest in AI through a barbell approach, and the episode wraps with reflections on 200 episodes, gratitude for the team behind the podcast, and a toast with Art. Key Takeaways Q2 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth beat expectations dramatically, with estimates that started around 13% rising above 23%, driving multiple compression from 23x to 19x forward earnings even as prices rose. For the first time in five quarters, all 11 S&P 500 sectors are showing significant earnings growth, with eight of 11 posting profit margin growth, explaining why the equal-weight index and Russell 2000 are outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's less transparent communication style, including terse statements and non-committal press conferences, has unsettled markets around his last two meetings despite no actual policy surprises. NVIDIA is trading at a valuation multiple lower than the broader market despite 65-70% margins, reflecting investor uncertainty about whether AI mega-cap spending is near a cyclical peak. Small caps have returned roughly 21-22% year-to-date, with leadership shifting from unprofitable, speculative names early in the year to more profitable small caps as the market broadens out. Credit default swap spreads on hyperscaler debt are rising as investors reassess these companies from "capital-light, free-cash-flow-positive" to "capital-heavy, free-cash-flow-negative," with the market pricing in that only a handful of AI players will ultimately survive. Jump to: 0:00 — Live From Boston for 200 2:43 — Art Hogan Joins the Bar Talk 3:06 — Earnings Growth Explains the Rally 6:10 — Market Breadth and Nvidia Valuations 9:02 — Pencils Down Origins and Rituals 10:08 — Fed Communication and Inflation Anxiety 13:40 — AI Spending Versus Productivity Payoff 16:57 — Small Caps Benefit from Broadening 19:50 — Hyperscalers Debt and Credit Skepticism 23:41 — Timeless Advisor Advice Plus Bubble Myths 27:31 — Why Profit Margins Keep Rising 30:20 — How to Invest in AI Diversified 35:52 — Contrarian Ideas International and Software 39:39 — Gratitude Growth and a Carson Invite 43:15 — Final Toast with Art Hogan Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	One Trillion Dollars (FvF Ep. 199)	05 août 2026	01:05:21
In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, open with a cautionary tale from the AI-focused hedge fund Situation Awareness, whose founder went from up over 400% year-to-date to a 67% collapse in July, a stark reminder that concentration, leverage, and liquidity can undo even the best fundamental research. At the Fed's latest meeting, Chair Walsh's refusal to offer guidance sent long-term yields soaring instead of calming markets, with the 30-year hitting its highest level since 2007. Sonu explains why nominal GDP growth running near 6-8% (even as real growth stays soft) points to a genuinely inflationary growth environment, and why the bond market, not stocks, may be the real test of the new Fed chair's credibility. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, and Oracle are now projected to spend over a trillion dollars in 2027 alone, close to 3% of GDP, with Microsoft and Amazon rewarded for showing results while Meta and Oracle get punished for spending without proof of ROI. They close with a look at GDP internals showing AI investment now accounts for over 40% of real GDP growth, banks breaking out to new highs as a bullish signal, a weakening dollar, and seasonal risks heading into August and September. [Key Takeaways] Situation Awareness, an AI-focused hedge fund, went from up over 400% year-to-date to down 67% in July after a concentrated, leveraged bet unwound, forcing a distressed sale of stock holdings to Citadel. Fed Chair Walsh's press conference offered little forward guidance, and long-term yields spiked in response, with the 30-year Treasury hitting its highest level since 2007 and 30-year mortgage rates climbing from 5.9% to 6.7% over the last five Fed meetings despite no rate changes. Nominal GDP growth has averaged 5.8% over the last six quarters (7.9% in Q2 alone), well above the 2010-2019 trend of 4%, supporting the view that this is an inflationary growth environment even as real GDP growth lags at 1.9%. The five largest hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Oracle) are now projected to spend over $1 trillion in CapEx in 2027 alone, up from earlier 2026 outlook estimates of $600 billion, with markets rewarding companies showing revenue results (Microsoft, Amazon) and punishing those that aren't (Meta, Oracle). AI-related hardware and software investment accounted for roughly 42% of real GDP growth over the last six quarters and now represents about 5% of GDP, surpassing the peak proportion seen during the dot-com boom. Bank stocks (KBE) are breaking out to new highs after a base dating back to 2007, a signal Ryan argues is historically a positive one for the broader bull market, even as seasonally weak August and September approach in a midterm year. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Quick Banter 1:25 - Live Boston Show Announcement 3:24 - AI Hedge Fund Blowup Lessons 9:39 - Fed Meeting And Market Whiplash 16:47 - Nominal Growth And Sticky Inflation 28:37 - Hyperscalers March Toward One Trillion 32:34 - Earnings Reactions From Big Tech 43:45 - GDP Under The Hood And AI Share 48:56 - Markets Sideways Seasonality And Banks 53:33 - Dollar Drop International Angle And Wrap Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Welcome to the Chip Crash (FvF Ep. 198)	29 juil. 2026	01:05:20
In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into Apple reclaiming its title as the world's largest company by market cap after sitting out the AI spending race, while hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft pour ever-larger sums into CapEx. They break down record Q2 blended earnings growth of 38% year-over-year, the outsized role investment gains in private holdings like SpaceX and Anthropic played in Google's headline profit beat, and why core net income tells a different story. The conversation shifts to the "chip crash" playing out in South Korea, where the KOSPI has fallen more than 30% from its June 22 peak amid margin calls and central bank rate hikes, and what that says about crowded momentum trades and the explosion of leveraged ETF products tied to tech and semis. Ryan and Sonu also cover the rotation into low volatility, financials, and healthcare, why flows into tech remain historically stretched even after the pullback, and preview this week's Fed decision amid unusually high rate-hike odds. They close with a personal update on Ryan's eye surgery, a shoutout to guest and TrendLabs Founder JC Parets' record-breaking episode, and details on the live 200th episode show in Boston. [Key Takeaways] Apple overtook NVIDIA as the world's largest company by market cap (~$4.9 trillion) after largely sitting out heavy AI CapEx spending, while free cash flow for semiconductor companies surpassed hyperscaler free cash flow for the first time this quarter. Q2 blended S&P 500 earnings growth hit 38% year-over-year, the best pace since Q3 2021, driven largely by tech (+65%), energy (+128%), and communication services (+112%); excluding Google, growth drops to 26%. A large share of Google's reported profit surge came from investment gains in private holdings (SpaceX, Anthropic) rather than core operations, a pattern also inflating net income at Amazon, NVIDIA, and Microsoft. South Korea's KOSPI fell roughly 33% from its June 22nd peak (before a further 10% one-day drop) as margin calls and a Bank of Korea rate hike hit heavily levered chip and momentum trades. Momentum's one-year excess return over the S&P 500 pulled back from the 96th to the 75th percentile relative to the last 40 years, while low volatility stocks are up 8% and financials up 11% since the market's June 2nd peak. Fed rate-hike odds this week sit near their highest pre-meeting level in recent memory, with the committee reportedly divided as inflation, a resilient labor market, and AI/Middle East-driven cost pressures complicate the outlook. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Quick Setup 0:31 - Apple Reclaims Top Market Cap 5:16 - AI Capex Arms Race Reality Check 8:35 - Record Margins And Earnings Surge 16:44 - South Korea Sparks Chip Crash 23:49 - Ryan’s Eye Patch Surgery Story 29:58 - Why Tech Flows Look Crowded 35:28 - Leveraged Products And Margin Call Risk 42:40 - Rotation Into Low Vol And Defensives 46:57 - Contrarian Thinking Versus Momentum 54:41 - Interstellar Detour And Time Talk 57:19 - Fed Uncertainty And Rate Hike Odds 1:02:16 - Live Boston Show And Final Thanks Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	JC Parets Returns (FvF Ep. 197)	22 juil. 2026	01:01:16
In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese welcome back JC Parets, founder of Trend Labs (formerly of All Star Charts), for a wide ranging conversation on market breadth, momentum, and where the "dumb money" is currently making its biggest mistakes. JC walks through his deductive approach to markets, using breadth data like the NYSE advance decline line and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average to systematically rule out a bear market thesis, the same way a sommelier deduces a wine varietal. The conversation covers the dollar's surprising resilience as a headwind, the extreme dispersion between software and semiconductor stocks, why crypto and tokenized equities represent "the future of finance" rather than nothing of value, and why the S&P Bank Index breaking out above its 2007 highs is one of the most underappreciated bullish signals in the market. JC and Sonu also debunk the margin debt to GDP scare narrative, put leveraged ETF flows in perspective, and discuss portfolio construction through uncorrelated strategies rather than benchmark chasing. They close out with career advice on social media, JC's favorite cities to visit, and a debate over India's food scene. [Key Takeaways] The NYSE advance decline line closed at an all time high, and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average is at cycle highs, both inconsistent with bear market conditions, which require broadening weakness across new lows, not just a handful of names. Despite a rallying dollar this year, equities have held up well; a dollar rollover (speculators are currently net long and near extremes) could act as a tailwind for risk assets, emerging markets, and Latin America. Correlation between software stocks and the broader technology index fell to near zero (versus a typical ~70), an extreme unwind that's now driving a "catch up" rotation back into software as some semiconductor strength cools. The S&P Bank Index just broke out above its 2007 Great Financial Crisis highs, alongside breakouts in mid cap financials, small cap financials, and European financials, a broad based signal JC argues is very difficult to reconcile with an imminent recession. Margin debt scares are overstated when framed against GDP; relative to total stock market value, leverage is near multi decade lows, and leveraged ETF products remain a rounding error (about 0.25%) of total market size. Small cap and large cap value are hitting new multi month relative highs versus growth, offering a potential diversifier to a volatile, whipsaw prone momentum factor. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Price As Proof 2:54 - Breadth Signals Still Say Bull 9:01 - Bitcoin Bets And Dollar Tailwinds 10:52 - Tech Dispersion And Software Catch-Up 12:53 - Crypto Rails And Tokenized Stocks 15:58 - Financials Breakout Challenges The Bears 24:59 - Margin Debt Myths And Leverage Reality 30:02 - Momentum Whiplash And Value Diversifiers 34:06 - From All-Star Charts To Trend Labs 39:40 - Uncorrelated Strategies Beat Benchmark Anxiety 42:56 - Technician Mentors And Who To Follow 48:00 - Social Media That Builds Careers 55:18 - Crack Spreads And Energy Signals 58:31 - Gratitude And Final Takeaways Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Here's Our Midyear Outlook 2026 (FvF Ep. 196)	15 juil. 2026	00:58:24
In this mid-year outlook episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, revisit their 2026 forecast and explain why they've raised their S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% for the year, while holding bonds steady at 3-5%. They walk through how AI capex has become a macroeconomic story as much as a market one, contributing roughly 90 basis points per quarter to real GDP growth, and why hyperscaler spending plans for 2026 and 2027 keep getting revised sharply higher. The conversation covers the labor market's quiet resilience, why business creation data suggests confidence rather than desperation, an inflation picture that isn't going away despite market expectations for Fed rate hikes, and a sector rotation story where former "value" stocks like Micron have become momentum plays almost overnight. Ryan and Sonu also dig into earnings estimate revisions, midterm-year volatility patterns, diversifiers like gold and managed futures, and swap stories from their World Cup travels before previewing next week's guest. [Key Takeaways] Carson raised its 2026 S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% at the midpoint of the year, with the index already up 11% total return year-to-date; bonds remain forecast at 3-5%. AI-related hardware and software investment (excluding data centers) has contributed about 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters, roughly 90 basis points per quarter. Hyperscaler capex estimates keep climbing: the five largest tech spenders were projected to spend $470 billion in 2026 back in November; that figure is now $740 billion, with 2027 estimates rising from $530 billion to nearly $900 billion. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen from $308 to $339 a share (up 10%) since the start of the year, with 2027 estimates up 12%, led by technology, energy, and materials. The labor market shows underlying strength despite headline softness, with unemployment at 4.2%, average payroll growth around 110,000 a month, and falling continuing claims. Inflation remains sticky due to incomplete tariff pass-through, reshoring-related cost increases, and rising computer/software prices, a reversal from the deflationary tech trends of the 1990s. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And The Midyear Setup 1:45 - Why We Raised The Stock Target 5:38 - AI Spending Shows Up In GDP 9:44 - The Consumer Looks Better Than Feels 14:20 - Business Creation As A Confidence Signal 17:08 - The Real Leaders Inside “Tech” 18:53 - Earnings Keep Getting Revised Higher 27:03 - The Inflation Problem Isn’t Gone 31:06 - The Fed Pause Versus Hike Pricing 35:00 - Second-Half Equity Playbook And Rotation 42:19 - Volatility, Breadth, And Midterm Patterns 49:06 - Bonds, Oil Headlines, Gold, Diversifiers 52:55 - World Cup Travel Notes And Wrap-Up 57:08 - Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	The Summer Rally Continues (FvF Ep. 195)	08 juil. 2026	00:51:40
In Episode 195 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, celebrate the Dow's first close above 53,000 and break down the fastest 1,000-point milestone in the index's history. They unpack what's really driving the S&P 500's 10% first-half gain, splitting the return into earnings growth, margin expansion, and multiple contraction to make the case that this rally isn't a valuation-driven bubble. The episode also covers the widening gap between mega-cap tech and the "lag 7," how AI is quietly showing up in small-cap and industrial stock returns, record highs across advance-decline lines, and why a stretched momentum trade doesn't have to mean disaster for the second half. Ryan and Sonu also swap origin stories marking their four- and seven-year anniversaries at Carson, react to Team USA's World Cup exit, and preview next week's mid-year outlook. [Key Takeaways] The S&P 500's 10% first-half return was driven almost entirely by fundamentals: earnings growth contributed 18 percentage points while multiple contraction subtracted about 8.5 points, meaning stocks are actually cheaper than they were six months ago. Forward margins have jumped from roughly 14.5% to 16% since January, contributing 10 percentage points to the year-to-date return alongside 8 points from sales growth tied to nominal GDP. Technology gained 33% in the first half even as the "Mag 7" fell about 4%, showing how much dispersion exists within the sector as AI-driven names pull away from laggards like Apple and Microsoft. AI's influence now stretches well beyond big tech: roughly 12 of the Russell 2000's 23% first-half gain traced back to AI-linked names, with industrials contributing more than financials. Multiple advance-decline lines, including the NYSE, S&P 500, small-cap, and global Dow, hit all-time highs, a breadth signal that has historically preceded market peaks by about 11 months on average. The S&P 500 momentum index's trailing one-year excess return sits in the 96th percentile versus the last 40 years, prompting Carson to trim some momentum exposure in favor of diversification rather than trying to time an exit. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Market Milestones 0:58 - Dow 53,000 And Summer Rally 3:26 - What Really Drove Returns 8:31 - AI Volatility Plus Sector Rotation 16:31 - Breadth Signals And Slingshot Stats 23:29 - Momentum Extremes And Risk Management 28:45 - Ryan’s Carson Origin Story 32:05 - Sonu’s Origin Story And AI Era 42:04 - World Cup Heartbreak And Leadership 47:57 - Payrolls Takeaways And Wrap-Up Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Stop, Drop, & Rotate (FvF Ep. 194)	01 juil. 2026	00:42:41
In Episode 194 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the "June swoon" and the powerful market rotation shaking up underlying sector leadership. They analyze insights from Sonu's time at the Economic Club of New York, covering Scott Bessent’s speech on national security industrial policy, Kevin Warsh's influence at the Fed, and the broader message of the global market. The episode also digs into an unprecedented market breadth anomaly, a massive weekly outperformance in healthcare, the state of small caps, and why the current bull market is far from finished. From Apple’s steep hardware price hikes and roaring nominal consumer spending to structural lessons from the 1990s dot-com bubble, the conversation connects the week's biggest headlines to the harder macroeconomic data underneath. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500 logged a five-day losing streak, yet advancing stocks outnumbered decliners every single day, a market anomaly unseen in nearly 30 years. Meanwhile, major advanced-decline lines hit all-time highs. While mega-cap tech paused, mid-caps rose 2.9% and small caps grew 3% month-to-date. Concurrently, healthcare staged an extraordinary 8% weekly jump, marking its largest weekly outperformance on record. Market warnings are often early; the S&P 500 doubled over the three years following Alan Greenspan's 1996 "irrational exuberance" speech. Navigating secular waves like AI requires strategic re-diversification, not exiting the equity market early. While inflation-adjusted real consumption sits around 2%, nominal spending rocketed at an 8.6% annualized pace over the last three months. Because corporate revenue is nominal, this massive wave of consumer spending continues to bolster corporate earnings. Driven by AI-related memory chip shortages, Apple announced steep price hikes including 30% for the HomePod mini and 55% for Apple TV. This demonstrates how one company's supply chain inflation becomes another tech supplier's margin expansion. Massive fiscal deficits at 6% to 7% of GDP mirror the late 1960s, continuing to inject liquidity and minimize near-term recession risks. We expect the Fed to keep rate cuts on pause as core services inflation remains sticky at a 4% annualized pace. While June represents a seasonally weak timeframe, July is historically the strongest month for stocks over the past 20 years, closing positive in 13 of the last 14 years. Jump to: 0:02 - Welcome And NYC Market Leaders 6:36 - June Swoon Turns Into Rotation 9:50 - Breadth Thrust And Sector Breakouts 16:24 - AI Momentum And Dotcom Lessons 27:40 - Inflation Pressures And Apple Pricing 33:32 - Fed Pause Risks And Fiscal Deficits 35:42 - July Seasonality And Wrap Up Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Let’s Run It Hot (FvF Ep. 193)	24 juin 2026	00:56:03
In Episode 193 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, talk about the passing of former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and what his 18-year tenure actually produced for markets. Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as chair featured a statement that clocked in at roughly 130 words and told markets almost nothing about how the new Fed intends to make decisions. Sonu makes the case that despite all the hawkish headlines, dot plot drama, and a two-year yield that jumped 16 basis points on Fed day (the largest single-day move on a Fed decision since 2008), actual real policy rates are more accommodative now than they were in March. The committee is split 9-9 on whether to hike this year, Warsh has opted out of the dot plot entirely, and inflation is running well above target, with core PCE likely to finish the year above 3.3%. Apple's announcement that iPhone prices are going up due to memory chip shortages puts a real-world face on the inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized. Meanwhile the Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday, which is the market's own vote on whether any of this is a crisis. The episode closes with a look at sector leadership, why communication services being down 6% to 7% year-to-date while tech is up 33% is genuinely strange, and why momentum breaking down is the signal to potentially worry about and why it isn't breaking down yet. Key Takeaways: Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan oversaw a 190% gain in the S&P 500 over 18 years, second only to William McChesney Martin. He also presided over two bubbles that burst within a decade, the tech crash, and the housing collapse, producing what remains the worst decade for equity investors in history. Kevin Warsh's first Fed statement came in at roughly 130 words, the shortest non-emergency statement in modern Fed history. He also declined to submit a dot plot projection. The practical effect is that markets are now pricing guidance from the other 18 members, who are not stepping back from the spotlight. The dot plot went 9-9 on whether to hike in 2026. Three months ago, 12 of 19 members expected at least one cut this year. That shift may explain the volatility. 428 S&P 500 stocks fell on Fed day, the broadest single-day decline of the year, but it does not automatically mean the Fed is hawkish. After subtracting the Fed's own inflation projections from its own rate projections, real policy rates are actually more accommodative now than in March, dropping from an implied 0.7% real rate to 0.5%. With core PCE running around 3.5% to 3.8% annualized, the real policy rate is effectively near zero. Apple's decision to raise iPhone prices due to memory chip shortages is the real-world confirmation of a broadening inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday. The NYSE advance-decline line and the small cap advance-decline line both hit all-time highs the prior Tuesday. Jump to: 0:00 — World Cup Weekend and Father’s Day 3:07 — Remembering Alan Greenspan’s Fed 8:05 — A New Chair and a Short Statement 13:25 — Dot Plot Split and Market Shock 19:45 — Yield Curve Signals and Bond Surprise 24:35 — AI Supply Chains and Price Pressure 28:20 — The Case for a Dovish Fed 34:40 — Economy Strength and Running It Hot 37:10 — A Car Break in Reality Check 40:35 — Breadth Seasonality and Sector Rotation 53:20 — Closing Thoughts and Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Talking Behavioral Finance with Nobel Prize Winner Dr. Richard Thaler (FvF Ep. 192)	17 juin 2026	00:46:58
In this special live episode of Facts vs Feelings from Carson's Second Quarter Summit in Chicago, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese sit down with Nobel Prize-winning economist Dr. Richard Thaler for a conversation that ranges from NFL draft strategy to retirement savings design to why markets keep producing events that are statistically supposed to be impossible. Thaler breaks down his "Loser's Curse" research on the NFL draft, explaining why top picks are systematically overvalued and why trading down is almost always the smarter move. Twenty years and a Nobel Prize later, teams have barely improved their ability to predict talent. The better-than-the-next-guy stat went from 52% to 53%. The conversation covers Bob Shiller's work on excess market volatility, what it actually means when 10-sigma events keep showing up every decade, and why the coming wave of major IPOs is forcing index providers into decisions that are anything but passive. On the behavioral side, Thaler walks through the three pillars that transformed 401k design: automatic enrollment, target date funds, and Save More Tomorrow and why the UK's approach to retirement mandates got the balance right. He also gets into mental accounting and why a $2 million gain in home equity has almost no impact on spending while a direct deposit hits a checking account and disappears immediately. Key Takeaways: NFL teams have had 20 years, full quant departments, and AI-powered scouting to improve on Richard Thaler's draft research. Their ability to rank players better than a coin flip moved from 52% to 53%. Tom Brady was picked 199. The first pick in the NFL draft is not worth six second-round picks. Trading down is the winning strategy, and trading a pick this year for a pick next year where the going rate is one round works out to roughly a 120% implied interest rate. When stocks get added to the S&P 500, the price pops. Andre Shleifer proved it in grad school with a paper called "Do Demand Curves Slope Down for Stocks?" The answer was yes, and it was controversial at the time. Now everyone knows it and the SpaceX IPO is about to test it at a scale the market has never seen. Buying an IPO on day one looks exciting and has historically cost investors around 30% in underperformance versus the market over the following three years, according to Jay Ritter's data. Making enrollment the default in 401k plans, rather than requiring employees to opt in, had a bigger impact on retirement savings rates than any amount of financial education. Which box comes pre-checked should be irrelevant. It isn't. A $2 million gain in home equity produces almost zero change in spending. The same money landing in a checking account gets spent. Mental accounting is not a quirk; it shapes how wealth actually moves through the economy, and you can't model the wealth effect without accounting for where the money sits. This episode was recorded on 4 June 2026, prior to the SpaceX IPO on 12 June 2026. Comments and opinions expressed at time stamp 18:40 and beyond regarding SpaceX and its anticipated public offering reflect information available at the time of recording. Jump to: 0:00 - Live From Chicago Kickoff 0:35 - Sponsor Message From Pimco 1:13 - Welcoming Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler 2:31 - The NFL Draft Loser’s Curse 9:03 - Can You Fire Your Team 10:31 - Why Markets Swing Too Much 18:35 - IPOs Index Rules And Demand Shocks 24:24 - Live T-Shirt Toss Intermission 25:47 - Nudges That Fix Retirement Saving 34:33 - Education Versus Mandates In Policy 38:45 - Fees Transparency And Trust 41:09 - Mental Accounting And The Wealth Effect 45:13 - Final Thanks And Sign-Off 45:42 - Important Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Live from Chicago with Jim Bianco and Jeff Kilburg (FvF Ep. 191)	10 juin 2026	00:53:20
In Episode 191 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, go live from Chicago with Jeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO & CIO at KKM Financial, and Jim Bianco, President at Bianco Research, for a wide-ranging conversation on where markets stand now and what could matter next. The episode centers on the bull market’s concentration in AI and large-cap tech, the durability of the rally, the role of active management, and why diversification may need to look different than it did a decade ago. The conversation also digs into earnings momentum, cross-ownership in AI, the impact of higher bond yields on long-duration assets, and whether software is being transformed or disrupted by AI. From bubbles and breadth to bond yields, oil shocks, and portfolio construction, the episode connects live market commentary to the forces shaping returns underneath the surface. Jump to: 0:00 — Live Crowd and Big Questions 1:48 — What A Bubble Really Means 6:00 — Earnings Momentum and AI Optimism 12:35 — Circular Ownership and AI ROI 16:05 — AI Replaces Software or Adds Cost 21:55 — 60/40 Is Not Dead Just Different 30:10 — Return Stacking and Better Diversifiers 36:30 — Oil, Inflation Volatility, and Bonds 41:40 — Concentration, Active Picks, And Dispersion 47:20 — Hard-Won Advice and Closing Thanks Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Talking SpaceX IPO (FvF Ep. 190)	03 juin 2026	01:06:44
In Episode 190 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the SpaceX IPO and what it could mean for indexes, mega-cap weights, and the next phase of the AI trade. They’re joined by Blake Anderson, Director of Portfolio Management at Carson Group, for a wide-ranging conversation on market breadth, small caps, tech leadership, Google’s AI spending, software, and the growing influence of data centers and high-quality cash flows in today’s market. The episode also digs into the latest rally in stocks, the role of FOMO, the state of the bond market, and why this bull market may still have more room to run even as leadership narrows. From IPO mechanics and index inclusion rules to the economics of AI infrastructure, the conversation connects the market’s biggest headlines to the harder data underneath. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500 is up nine consecutive weeks. When it has gained more than 15% in April and May combined, June has never been lower and the rest of the year averages nearly 19% gains. Small caps are up 18% year-to-date and it seems like nobody is talking about it. A third of those returns trace back to three companies, all tied to data centers and AI infrastructure. SpaceX chose the Nasdaq, and Nasdaq changed its rules. Mega-cap companies can now be assessed for index inclusion just 15 days post-IPO instead of waiting six months. At a $2 trillion valuation against $19 billion in 2025 revenue, SpaceX carries a price-to-sales ratio above 90. Historically, IPOs with price-to-sales above 40 average a 94% first-day pop, but a negative 45% three-year return. A deal disclosed in the SpaceX S1 could see Anthropic pay up to $15 billion annually for data center capacity, nearly matching SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue in a single contract. Google is raising $80 billion in equity and has cut buybacks to zero. AI infrastructure spending has moved from optional to existential, with payoff timing still uncertain. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and the SpaceX question 1:19 — Markets rip higher after the spring rally 10:33 — Breadth, small caps, and hidden leaders 14:10 — FOMO signals and the bubble check 15:59 — Blake joins on tech and rates 20:48 — Google funds AI data centers 26:22 — Software’s AI reset and data moats 29:13 — SpaceX IPO filing and index rule changes 43:01 — IPO stats, valuation risk, and consumer wrap Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #SpaceXIPO #FactsVsFeelings #investing #stockmarket #AI #techinvesting #IPO #smallcaps #SP500 #bullmarket #NVIDIA #Starlink #Anthropic #OpenAI #marketanalysis #portfoliomanagement #indexfunds #WallStreet #fintech #CarsonGroup
	Deal or No Deal (FvF Ep. 189)	27 mai 2026	01:09:54
In Episode 189 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down the disconnect between how people feel about the economy and what the hard data is actually showing. They connect the dots between oil prices, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and why markets may not be reacting to geopolitical headlines the way many investors expect. It’s a real-time look at the K-shaped economy: tighter budgets at the bottom, resilient spending at the top. Ryan and Sonu walk through stretched momentum after an eight-week rally, sector rotation beneath the surface, and another massive earnings season. They also explain why private AI investments are quietly becoming a meaningful contributor to public company profits, something many investors still aren’t fully accounting for. Key Takeaways: Oil prices, Treasury yields, and inflation expectations remain tightly connected even when markets appear calm. Consumer behavior is splitting across income levels, reinforcing the idea of a K-shaped economy. Soft data like sentiment surveys continues diverging from hard data like earnings and employment. Earnings, buyback activity, and AI exposure are reshaping market leadership. Market momentum remains strong, but sector leadership underneath the surface keeps rotating. Bond markets may be the biggest force shaping Fed expectations and investor behavior going Jump to: 3:06 — Strait Tensions and Oil Prices 6:41 — The All-Electric Ferrari Debate 8:39 — Consumer Strain Signals 13:15 — Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Lows 21:37 — Home Water Leaks and Insurance Headaches 25:18 — Sector Breadth and Market Leadership 33:15 — Momentum Crowding and the Win Streak 37:41 —Earnings and Buybacks 45:01 — Private AI Valuations Inside Public Earnings 48:13 —Health Data and AI Coaching 50:44 — Chicago Live Show Details 54:00 — Grading Powell and New Fed Risks 1:05:12 — Fed Hike Odds and Week Ahead Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Welcome to the Party, Mr. Warsh (FvF Ep. 188)	20 mai 2026	00:54:35
In Episode 188 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, welcome new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the only way they know how: with data, context, and zero sugarcoating. When Jerome Powell took over in February 2018, the Dow dropped 4.6% on his first day, the worst debut of any Fed chair in modern memory. This time, it’s not the equity market doing the hazing. It’s the bond market. The 30-year Treasury yield sits above 5% for the first time since 2007, and Japan's yields just hit levels not seen since the 1990s. Ryan and Sonu explain why the dynamics that once pushed foreign money into Treasuries are quietly reversing and what that means for U.S. investors. From there, Sonu walks through industrial production data that almost nobody is talking about. Manufacturing is running at nearly 5% annualized. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms. This is hard data, not a survey, and it runs directly counter to the narrative that the economy is softening. Then comes earnings. With 91% of S&P 500 companies reported, earnings growth is running at 27% against expectations of 13%. Communication services, expected to be down nearly 4%, came in up roughly 40%. The consumer is holding up, too, with retail sales running at 13% annualized and 95.2% of all household debt paid on time per the New York Fed. The episode closes with a look at what to watch: NVIDIA earnings, FOMC minutes, and a bond market both hosts are keeping a very close eye on. Key Takeaways: The bond market is testing Kevin Warsh the same way equity markets tested every Fed chair before him, and the dynamics driving yields higher are not going away quickly. AI is showing up in the hard data, not just stock prices. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms. S&P 500 growth came in at 27% against a 13% estimate during earnings season. Communication services swung from an expected decline of nearly 4% to a gain of roughly 40%. The two-year Treasury yield above the Fed funds rate signals the market believes the Fed is behind the curve. Rate cut calls from the sell side are, in Sonu's words, a John McEnroe moment. The S&P 500 is up seven consecutive weeks, gaining over 16% during that stretch. One year after prior streaks of this magnitude, the market has never been lower and is up 16% on average. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and Who's Running the Fed? 6:10 — Bonds Are Testing the New Fed Chair 13:05 — Manufacturing Heats Up and AI Shows Up in Hard Data 21:40 — Japan Sparks a Global Yield Reprice 34:55 — Portfolio Moves on Duration and Cash 43:55 — Earnings and AI Spending 49:20 — Consumer Strength, Retail Sales, and Final Thoughts Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Party Like It's 1999 (FvF Ep. 187)	13 mai 2026	00:57:55
In Episode 187 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, ask the question on every investor's mind: Does today's market feel like 1999? The episode opens with genuine nostalgia. Ryan recalls tripling his play money on Sycamore and Juniper Networks before losing it all on margin. Sonu remembers 75% of his engineering class having job offers by August of senior year. The vibes were very different then. From there, Ryan and Sonu dig into the numbers raising eyebrows. Semiconductors now make up roughly 22% of the S&P 500, up from around 6% at last April's lows. A telecom ETF built around AI infrastructure is up 44% year to date. These are not boring numbers. But beneath all that heat, sentiment is in the toilet, breadth is holding up, and credit spreads are making new cycle lows in ways that look nothing like the quiet deterioration that began in 1998. Ryan and Sonu make the case that this is not 1999. Not yet, anyway. Then Sonu drops inflation data that deserves a second read. Computer software and accessories, where AI token and cloud spending shows up in CPI, is running at an 83% annualized pace over the last three months. The Fed has a real problem. Ryan and Sonu walk through why stable jobs plus hard inflation plus a dovish Fed still adds up to bullish for equities, before closing out with a stronger-than-expected labor market update, a preview of the US-China trade meeting, and a record-breaking Uber ride from O'Hare to Cedar Rapids. Key Takeaways: Semiconductor stocks and AI infrastructure names are posting numbers that feel frothy on the surface, but earnings growth and genuine demand provide far more fundamental support than the dot-com era ever did. The NYSE advance decline line just hit an all-time high. In 1998, it peaked 18 months before the market did. That divergence is not happening today. AI-related inflation is real and showing up in the data. Computer software in PCE is running nearly 60% annualized over the last six months. This is not just an energy or tariff story. The S&P 500 has posted six consecutive weekly gains totaling over 16%, the second best such streak on record. One year later, the market has historically been up 17% on average. The labor market is quietly stabilizing. Blue-collar sectors that were bleeding jobs in 2024 are turning around, and prime-age employment sits at its highest ratio since before the 2008 financial crisis. The longer the Fed delays action on inflation, the greater the Volcker-style risk in 2027 or 2028. The AI capex boom has driven roughly 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters. When that fades, the math changes. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and the 1999 Question 2:00 — College Memories and Dot Com Vibes 6:20 — New Highs with Rotten Sentiment 10:30 — Frothy Semis and Leverage Lessons 15:50 — AI Infrastructure Trade and Sector Gaps 22:40 — Breadth, Credit Spreads, and Bull Signals 33:10 — CPI Heat from Tariffs and AI Bottlenecks 41:50 — Fed Risks and When Booms Break 49:40 — Payrolls Update and Blue-Collar Turn 54:20 — China Trade Talk, Travel Chaos, and Wrap Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Talking 'Sell in May' with Jeff Hirsch (FvF Ep. 186)	06 mai 2026	00:54:19
In Episode 186 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by a genuine industry legend, Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, now celebrating its 60th year. And yes, Jeff is also turning 60 this month. The conversation starts where May always takes us. "Sell in May and Go Away." Jeff immediately sets the record straight. It's not about selling everything on May 1. It's about repositioning, spring cleaning your portfolio, tightening stops, and getting ready for the historically weakest six months of the year. He walks through how MACD signals layered on seasonal patterns sharpen entries and exits, which sectors shine during the weak months, and why the Nasdaq's growing weight in the S&P 500 has stretched that weak window further into June. From there, the episode covers the Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth-year tailwinds, and how the midterm-year setup historically creates one of the best buying opportunities on the calendar. Jeff makes a candid near-term call on gold, makes the case for utilities and staples during the weak months, and explains why the mutual fund October 31 deadline is the true engine behind all of it. Oh, and Sonu's birthday is May 4. So officially: reposition on Sonu's birthday, go sober on Ryan's. Key Takeaways: "Sell in May" is widely misunderstood. The real strategy is repositioning, not abandoning the market entirely. Jeff uses MACD crossover signals layered on seasonal patterns to time entries (on or after October 1) and exits (on or after April 1 for the S&P 500, June 1 for Nasdaq). The Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth year of the decade, and the sixth year of the presidency all point toward a strong year. Jeff's target range is 8% to 12%, with 15% possible if geopolitical risks resolve. Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples are Jeff's preferred sector plays for the weak six months, with added tailwinds from data center electricity demand and dividends. Gold looks like a near-term top after a massive run. Jeff is watching for a seasonal re-entry opportunity in July or August. The real driver behind October seasonality is the mutual fund October 31 fiscal year-end deadline, which creates institutional churn, window dressing, and the conditions for the classic "bear killer" October bounce. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and Meet Jeff Hirsch 1:37 — Sell in May Reframed 6:25 — MACD Signals and Seasonality 10:55 — Sector Plays for the Weak Months 14:55 — The Trump Cycle and Midterm Choppiness 22:45 — Why Seasonal Patterns Exist 35:05 — International Ideas and Cash Choices 44:05 — Dead Indicators and the 401(k) Flow Shift 50:10 — Gold, Grains, Options, and Calendar Quirks 53:05 — Where to Follow Jeff and Wrap Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Jeff: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-hirsch-8285358/ • X: https://x.com/AlmanacTrader?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Still Searching For Buffett (FvF Ep. 185)	29 avr. 2026	00:42:48
In Episode 185 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are recording live from Omaha at PodPony's studio during Carson's Q2 board meeting. They make a pilgrimage to the McDonald's on 40th and Dodge that Warren Buffett reportedly frequents. They got the scoop on his usual order, but did Buffett himself show up? You'll have to listen to find out! On the markets side, Ryan breaks down why the current secular bull market started in 2013 and what history says happens after you're up 100%, which is exactly where this bull market now stands from the October 2022 lows. The S&P just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, and the data on "sell in May" may surprise you. Ryan's numbers show May has been up 12 of the last 13 years. The episode also covers the oil picture with WTI back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation still unresolved, the consumer sentiment disconnect between how people feel and what retail sales are actually showing, and the Fed outlook heading into tomorrow's decision. Sonu explains why Kevin Walsh is leaning on trimmed mean PCE to justify rate cuts, and Ryan calls him out for putting everyone to sleep. Gold gets a candid look too, still in a long-term bull market but stretched after a massive run, with real rate pressure creating some short-term headwinds. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500 just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, and the bull market has officially crossed the 100% gain mark from the October 2022 lows. Forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, the highest ever recorded. Ryan makes the case that the current secular bull market began in 2013 and explains what history says comes next. Sell in May is largely a myth. May has been up 12 of the last 13 years. WTI is back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation has not resolved the way markets hoped. Consumer sentiment remains near historic lows, but retail sales tell a very different story. Gold is still in a long-term bull market but faces short-term headwinds from real rate pressure after an extended run. Jump to: 0:00 - Live from Omaha Setup 1:59 - All-Time Highs and Oil Shock 6:10 - Why Sentiment Feels So Low 11:27 - Board Meeting and Real Money 13:22 - Will AI Kill Investing Alpha? 16:09 - When Secular Bull Markets Start 21:00 - Global Breakouts and Gold Debate 22:36 - Rates, Inflation, and the Fed Shift 26:49 - Trimmed Mean PCE Explained 29:49 - Sell in May: Stats Check 32:58 - Bull Market Up 100% — Now What? 36:22 - McDonald's Hunt for Buffett 41:33 - Wrap-Up and Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Social Hour With Josh Schafer and Talmon Smith (Social Hour Ep. 4)	28 avr. 2026	01:02:37
The Social Hour is back for its 4th episode — and this one covered a lot of ground. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the financial media world: Josh Schafer, Newsletter Editor and Investing Personality at Barron's Investor Circle, and Talmon Smith, Economics Reporter at The New York Times. Fair warning: Ryan's 140-pound Great Pyrenees may or may not have been snoring in the background, Talmon showed up fashionably late on Central Time, and somehow the conversation ended with a tease about something big coming to Omaha. But in between? Plenty of substance. They dig into semiconductors ripping 18 days in a row, the Intel comeback story nobody saw coming, and why AI infrastructure names from chips to optical networking to data center builders keep defying expectations. Josh breaks down what's actually driving the earnings surprise story, why FOMO is back in the market, and what the tailwinds (or lack thereof) look like for the back half of the year. Talmon brings the macro and human side of things, connecting the dots between surging corporate margins, collapsing consumer sentiment, and what affordability really means for everyday Americans. Sonu drops some eye-opening services inflation data that reframes the whole "inflation is solved" narrative. Key Takeaways: Semis on a historic run: The SOX up 18 consecutive days with broad breadth, not just Nvidia Intel's surprise: Earnings estimates doubled overnight and the turnaround thesis is gaining traction AI infrastructure trade alive and well: Telecom ETF names like Iridium and Lumentum up 100%+ YTD Earnings boom: 26% EPS growth across 25% of S&P 500 reporters and this isn't just Big Tech Consumer sentiment vs. stock market: Why both can be true at the same time Services inflation running hot: Personal care, dental, and vehicle rentals all well above target The Fed's hands are tied: Labor market steady, inflation sticky, no clear path to cuts GDP watch: Real GDP print incoming, brace for noise and focus on nominal Josh Schafer and Talmon Smith are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 Disclosures and Social Hour Kickoff 1:15 Meet Barron's Josh Schafer 6:30 Semiconductors Rip on AI Buildout 10:20 Intel's Surprise Turnaround Narrative 14:10 Powell Drama Fades as Stocks Rally 18:35 Tech Layoffs and the Capex Squeeze 22:10 Earnings Boom Meets Inflation Pain 25:40 Talmon Smith on Affordability and Sentiment 37:50 The Fed's Dilemma and the 2% Target 52:40 GDP Angst and Market Narrative Confusion 59:30 Where to Follow and What's Next Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Talmon: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tal-smith-b1898a326/ • X: https://x.com/talmonsmith Connect with Josh: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-schafer-b24723132/ • X: https://x.com/_JoshSchafer Questions? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	The Bull is Back (FvF Ep. 184)	22 avr. 2026	00:58:34
In Episode 184 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most historic 13-day market rallies ever recorded and ask the question most investors are afraid to answer: Are the lows for 2026 already in? Ryan and Sonu break down what actually drove the comeback—not just momentum, but a fundamental shift in the earnings picture. Forward EPS estimates are rising sharply across tech, energy, and materials, and margin expansion is now the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns. They explain why nominal GDP growth of 5% to 6% is fueling corporate profits even as consumer sentiment sits near historic lows, and why that gap between how people feel and how they actually spend tells the real story of this market. The episode also covers portfolio construction in a structurally inflationary world, why telecom has quietly surged 40%, why hard assets and managed futures are outperforming bonds, and what this bull market's three-and-a-half-year track record says about where things go from here. Key Takeaways: The SP 500's largest 13-day rally in history was driven by fundamentals, not just relief Forward EPS estimates are rising across tech, energy, and materials, three sectors making up 40% of the index Margin expansion is the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns Consumer spending remains strong in nominal terms even as real income growth is flat Telecom has surged 40% and remains one of the most overlooked positions in diversified models Bull markets that reach Year 3 have made it to Year 4 seven out of eight times historically Ryan believes the 9.1% drawdown in early 2026 marked the lows for the year Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and Quick Setup 0:31 — X Account Hack and Security Lessons 3:41 — Livestream Guests and Schedule 8:30 — Ryan's New CNBC Contributor Role 9:58 — New Highs and a Historic Rally 16:08 — Tim Cook's Legacy and Apple's AI Strategy 22:06 — Earnings Growth vs. Valuation Multiples 29:27 — Sector Profits: Energy, Tech, and Materials 37:20 — Consumer Spending Amid Low Confidence 44:15 — Retail Sales and Inflationary Growth 47:16 — Portfolio Positioning for Real Economy Trends 50:09 — Hype Cycles and the Allbirds AI Story 53:34 — Are the Lows In for 2026? 56:15 — Omaha Teaser, Closing, and Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Talking Oil and Iran with Rory Johnston (FvF Ep. 183)	15 avr. 2026	01:01:54
A global oil chokepoint sits at the center of today’s biggest market story — and the ripple effects are already showing up in prices, supply chains, and geopolitics. In Episode 183 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, to break down what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz and why it matters far beyond energy markets. They walk through how oil actually moves around the world, how much supply has come offline, and why restarting production takes months, not days. The conversation reveals the mechanics behind oil pricing, from futures curves to physical barrels, and explains why spot prices have surged even as headline prices lag behind. They also explore how disruptions force tough tradeoffs across global economies, with rising costs hitting some regions far harder than others. If you want to understand what drives oil prices, how supply shocks unfold, and what comes next, this episode connects the dots. Jump to: 0:02 Welcome And Guest Introduction 2:05 Rory’s Path Into Oil Analysis 6:09 Strait Of Hormuz Flow Basics 10:20 Reroutes, Pipelines, And Shut-Ins 20:50 The Double Blockade Explained 27:20 Retaliation Risks And LNG Targets 29:52 Shortages, Jet Fuel, And Demand Destruction 33:20 How Oil Prices Went Negative 36:56 Brent, WTI, Dated Brent, Backwardation 50:08 Why Oil And Stocks Look Complacent 57:22 Where To Follow Rory And Closing Connect with Ryan: • Ryan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • Sonu on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Rory Johnston: • Rory Johnston on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysjjohnston/ • X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Who’s the Skunk at the Party? (FvF Ep. 182)	08 avr. 2026	00:59:40
In Episode 182 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into a market environment defined by soaring oil prices, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tension and ask the big question: Who's the real skunk at the party? Inspired by Jamie Dimon's 49-page annual report, the conversation centers on inflation as the underappreciated threat to an otherwise resilient economy. Ryan and Sonu break down what WTI crude at $115 a barrel is signaling, why real yields matter more than nominal ones, and how equity markets have held up remarkably well given the backdrop of war, energy shocks, and a hawkish Fed pivot. The episode covers the March jobs report, a surprisingly solid 178,000 jobs added, and what slowing immigration means for the labor market's break-even rate. Sonu explains the shift to a low hire, low fire economy, why youth unemployment has improved sharply since September, and why manufacturing is showing early signs of life. Ryan and Sonu also discuss portfolio construction in a volatile inflation world: why the traditional 60/40 may not cut it, why small cap value is quietly outperforming, and how managed futures and real assets are earning their place in diversified models. They close with a preview of next week's special guest, oil analyst Rory Johnston of Commodity Context, and a cautious but glass-half-full outlook for the second half of the year. Key Takeaways: - Inflation, not just the war, may be the biggest long-term market risk. - Real yields falling last week was a key positive signal for equities. - The labor market break-even rate has dropped to near zero due to stalled immigration. - Youth unemployment (ages 20 to 24) has fallen sharply since September, a constructive sign. - Diversification across geographies, sectors, and asset classes is more important than ever. - Midterm years are historically volatile, but one year off the lows, markets have always been higher. Jump to: 0:00 - Opening And Fast Moving Headlines 2:05 - Oil Spikes And Market Signal Check 8:25 - Real Yields, Valuations, And Midterm History 14:25 - Jamie Dimon On Inflation Risk 18:10 - Building Portfolios For Volatile Inflation 23:00 - Fed Cuts Debate And Growth Indicators 30:00 - Spring Break Stories And Travel Chaos 34:40 - Jobs Report: What Matters Most 42:23 - Layoffs Data And Youth Unemployment Reality Check 49:50 - War Timeline, Commodities Crunch, And CPI Ahead 53:10 - Next Week's Guest: Rory Johnston Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags: #FactsVsFeelings #Inflation #OilMarkets #StockMarket #MacroEconomics #FederalReserve #JobsReport #MarketVolatility #GeopoliticalRisk #Diversification #EnergyMarkets #InterestRates #WealthManagement #CarsonGroup #InvestingOutlook [inflation risk stock market 2026, Jamie Dimon inflation warning, WTI crude oil price surge, real yields and equity valuations, March jobs report analysis, labor market break-even rate immigration, youth unemployment trends 2026, Fed rate cut outlook 2026, managed futures portfolio diversification, small cap value stocks outperforming, midterm year market volatility history, portfolio construction inflation environment, geopolitical crisis oil prices, low hire low fire economy, Rory Johnston commodity context]
	Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel? (FvF Ep. 181)	01 avr. 2026	01:00:07
In Episode 181 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most consequential geopolitical developments in recent memory, the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, and what it means for oil markets, global supply chains, and your portfolio. They break down what it would mean if the U.S. exits the conflict without reopening the strait, why Iran could emerge as a de facto regional hegemon, and how a potential toll system on tanker traffic could reshape global energy economics. They also explore why crude oil remains stubbornly elevated despite ceasefire signals, the growing "air pocket" in global oil supply as floating storage drains, and the long term instability risks including nuclear proliferation that could keep an ongoing risk premium baked into energy prices. On the markets side, Ryan and Sonu make the case that this pullback is unlike any bear market on record, with the S&P 500 taking an unusually long time to reach even a 5% decline from its peak. They walk through why the year to date drawdown is almost entirely explained by multiple contraction and not deteriorating earnings, and how forward EPS and profit margins continue to hit new highs even as headlines stay grim. The duo also examine the dramatic drawdowns in mega cap tech names, why the market may be pricing in a recession that isn't materializing, and why diversification across sectors, styles, and geographies is paying off in ways many investors haven't seen in years. The episode wraps with a Disney and Universal trip report, Sonu's allergy update, Ryan's eye health journey, and a big congratulations to his daughter Susanna on her college commitment to Penn State. Key Takeaways: Trump withdrawing without reopening the strait could establish Iran as the dominant regional power A tanker toll system could generate $100B+ annually for Iran, reshaping Middle East geopolitics The S&P 500 decline is 100% multiple contraction; earnings and margins remain strong tailwinds Forward 12 month EPS is up 7% in Q1 alone, with half of that gain coming during the crisis No bear market since WWII has started with such a slow initial 5% decline, a historically unusual pattern Mega cap tech stocks are down 22 to 35% from highs, pricing in a recession that hasn't arrived Diversification across value, international, commodities, and small caps is quietly working Jump to: 0:00 – Welcome and the Great Kit Kat Heist 2:10 – Trump's Potential Pullback and Hormuz Control 5:50 – Iran's Toll Scenario and Global Leverage 9:10 – Why Oil Stays Elevated Despite Peace Signals 11:55 – Energy as a Strategic Hedge Trade 16:10 – Hedging Activity and Encouraging Market Breadth 18:45 – Tanker Traffic Slowdown and Supply Time Lags 22:05 – Floating Storage Drawdown Explained 35:23 – Mega Cap Tech Drawdowns and Recession Pricing 41:10 – Slow Burn Selloff and What the VIX Is Telling Us 48:05 – Diversification Lessons From Lost Decades 56:50 – Final Thoughts and Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Social Hour With Sam Ro & Frank Cappelleri (Social Hour Ep. 3)	31 mars 2026	01:04:10
The Social Hour is back for its 3rd episode — and this one did not disappoint. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the industry: Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, and Sam Ro, founder of TKer. Fair warning: Sonu joins live from Epcot, Ryan gets an unexpected visit from housekeeping mid-stream, and the conversation somehow wraps up with a heated debate about Predator Badlands. But in between, there's a lot of substance. They dig into what's been driving market volatility, why closing near the lows matters more than the headlines, and what the technicals are actually telling us right now. Frank shares his screen and walks through charts on trading boxes, the VIX, and the tech-to-energy rotation that's hitting historic extremes. Sam breaks down why diversification still makes sense even when everything seems to move together, and what consumer spending data is, and isn't, telling us. Sonu connects the dots between oil supply disruptions, the Fed's difficult position, and what it would actually take to spark a near-term rally. Key Takeaways: Closes near the lows matter: 11 of the last 12 sessions closing weak signals bears are in control Tech vs. energy rotation: The ratio just hit its lowest weekly RSI reading in recorded history Private credit check-in: Why it doesn't look systemic, yet, and what to watch The Fed's dilemma: Inflation keeps running hot; how long can they stay patient? Bitcoin watch: Still hasn't made a new low and that might mean something Diversification reminder: Mag 7 drawdowns are a painful but timely lesson Frank Cappelleri and Sam Ro are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome & Guest Intros 6:21 - Why Markets Turned Ugly 11:06 - Oil Supply Fears & What It Takes To Rally 22:20 - Private Credit Systemic Risk Debate 30:50 - Chart Read: Weak Closes, VIX & the 200-Day Line 43:36 - Energy Surge vs. AI Capital Spending 52:24 - Gold, The Fed Box & Bitcoin As A Risk Signal Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Sam: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sammyro/ • X: https://x.com/SamRo Connect with Frank: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-cappelleri-cfa-cmt-a319483/ • X: https://x.com/FrankCappelleri Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	It Takes Two To Tango (FvF Ep. 180)	25 mars 2026	00:45:34
In Episode 180 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss a volatile market environment shaped by inflation concerns, rising yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting investor sentiment. They break down why a rough week in markets may not be as unusual as it feels, how inflation is changing the way investors should think about diversification, and why bonds may not provide the same protection they once did. The conversation covers risk-on signals inside the market, falling consumer staples, rising yields competing with dividend stocks, and why inflation regimes change which sectors win and lose. They also discuss Federal Reserve policy challenges, why inflation may remain stubborn, and how corporate earnings and margins continue to support the broader bull market despite volatility. They also explore market history, including how often 5% pullbacks turn into corrections or bear markets, why midterm years tend to be more volatile, and why long-term investors should expect pullbacks as the cost of investing. From diversification strategies and managed futures to investor sentiment extremes and earnings growth trends, this episode focuses on separating short-term fear from long-term market reality. Key Takeaways: Pullbacks are normal: 5–10% dips rarely become bear markets Inflation shifts winners: Sectors and diversification strategies matter more than ever Bonds may not hedge: Rising yields challenge traditional allocations Sentiment extremes can signal opportunities: Record bearishness can be a contrarian buy Earnings remain a tailwind: Margins and profits continue supporting the bull market Jump to: 0:00 – Welcome! 1:06 – Disney Update & Livestream Announcement 2:02 – Monday Rally Then a Rough Week 4:18 – Iran Talks: Rumors vs Reality 8:50 – Risk-On Signals Inside the Market 12:19 – The Fed’s Inflation Problem Returns 19:51 – Favorite Finance Movies 21:49 – Chuck Norris Tribute & Jokes 25:04 – How 5% Pullbacks Usually End 30:35 – When Bonds and Gold Don’t Hedge 37:03 – Travel Chaos, TSA, Clear & Thanks 40:54 – Midterm Year Volatility & Closing Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com [inflation regime investing, market volatility midterm years, federal reserve inflation problem, diversification in inflation environment, bonds vs stocks inflation, managed futures diversification strategy, investor sentiment indicators, stock market pullbacks history, earnings growth stock market outlook, interest rates and equities, portfolio diversification strategies, macroeconomic investing outlook, inflation and profit margins, market corrections vs bear markets]
	Strait to Trouble (FvF Ep. 179)	18 mars 2026	01:08:45
The most dangerous shortages are the ones you don’t see coming. What happens when global oil flow is disrupted and the Strait of Hormuz becomes a bottleneck for the world economy? In Episode 179 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down what really happens when energy markets get stressed. From the difference between Brent crude and WTI crude to why strategic reserves can’t fix everything overnight, the conversation moves beyond gas prices and into the full inflation chain. They explore how diesel, shipping costs, helium supply, and fertilizer prices all connect—and how those pressures can quietly show up later in food prices and global growth. From bearish sentiment and ETF outflows to why rallies often start when positioning gets crowded, they look at what investors may be missing. The discussion touches on tech and software as “cash flow now” plays, the resilience of Bitcoin, and how crypto and stablecoins could play a role when global trade gets constrained. Key Takeaways: • Hidden shortages matter: Supply shocks ripple far beyond what shows up at the pump • Inflation chain reaction: Energy impacts shipping, agriculture, and food prices over time • Market positioning: Extreme sentiment can set the stage for sharp reversals • Alternative assets: Tech and crypto may behave differently during inflation stress • Policy impact: Energy disruptions complicate the outlook for rate cuts and inflation expectations Jump to: 0:00 Welcome and St. Patrick’s Day 1:15 The 11:30 PM Doorbell Mystery 5:50 Oil Prices And The Sweet Spot 8:05 Strait Of Hormuz Supply Shock 12:40 SPR Release And The Shortfall 16:40 Fertilizer Prices And Food Inflation 18:55 Market Bounce After A Rough Stretch 26:00 Sentiment Extremes And Capitulation Signals 33:50 Tech Leadership And Software Resilience 40:30 Bitcoin Strength And A Crypto Theory 46:00 Private Credit Fears And Financials 52:55 The Fed Trapped By Inflation 1:04:15 Closing And Live Stream Details 1:07:25 Standard Investing Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Live From Future Proof (Special Edition)	12 mars 2026	00:30:32
Recorded live from the beach at Future Proof in Miami, this special episode of Facts vs Feelings brings Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to the main stage for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro, and the forces driving today’s volatility. Against the backdrop of a rapidly shifting news cycle, Ryan and Sonu break down the dramatic swings in oil prices, the implications of geopolitical tensions for global markets, and what it all means for investors navigating an environment of inflationary growth. They also discuss why they remain constructive on equities despite recent volatility, how global market breadth is expanding beyond the U.S., and the portfolio positioning they believe makes sense in the current environment. From Fed policy and inflation trends to the strength of the labor market and signals from credit markets, the discussion highlights the difference between headline-driven fears and the underlying data shaping the economic outlook. Ryan and Sonu also explore where their outlook could be wrong, including risks tied to gold, small caps, and shifts in monetary policy. Key Takeaways Oil volatility matters: Large swings in energy prices can ripple through inflation, global trade, and market sentiment Inflation may remain sticky: Core inflation near 3 percent could limit how aggressively the Federal Reserve cuts rates Global markets are broadening: International equities have been contributing meaningfully to returns alongside U.S. stocks Labor markets remain resilient: Low layoffs and steady income growth continue supporting the economy Portfolio diversification still matters: Exposure across global equities, gold, and selective sector positioning may help navigate uncertainty Jump to: 0:00 — Opening and Live Show Setup 1:18 — Live from Miami! 3:20 — Oil Market Whiplash and Why It Matters 6:25 — Portfolio Positioning: Stocks, Gold, and Bonds 9:05 — Signs of a Global Bull Market 11:20 — Midterm Year Volatility and Market Corrections 13:55 — The Fed, Inflation, and the Labor Market 17:40 — How Carson Research Supports Advisors 19:40 — Where Our Outlook Could Be Wrong 23:20 — Signals from Tech, Staples, Credit, and Crypto 28:40 — CPI, PCE, and Final Thoughts Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Talking About AI with Steve Hou and Kai Wu (FvF Ep. 178)	11 mars 2026	01:08:48
Artificial intelligence continues to dominate headlines and investment flows, but understanding the technology behind it requires looking beyond the hype and into the structure of the ecosystem itself. In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Steve Hou of Bloomberg and Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital to explore how the AI economy actually works, from the infrastructure powering it to the applications beginning to reshape industries. The conversation moves through the full AI stack, including semiconductors, computing power, models, and software layers, while also examining how competition, innovation, and investment are shaping the next phase of the technology cycle. Key Takeaways • The AI stack matters: Chips, infrastructure, models, and applications each play a distinct role in the ecosystem • Compute demand keeps expanding: AI adoption continues to drive demand for semiconductors and data infrastructure • Competition is accelerating: Innovation across companies may push AI models toward commoditization • Productivity gains will vary: Some sectors may see faster AI-driven improvements than others • Markets are pricing the shift: Investor expectations around AI continue shaping technology and equity markets Steve Hou and Kai Wu are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by this individual may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:02 — Opening And Guest Intros 1:46 — Kai And Steve’s Quant Backgrounds 6:56 — Two ChatGPT Moments And AI Agents 10:45 — Compute Demand And Industrial Tailwinds 17:03 — Models Commoditize, Orchestration Rises 23:39 — AI, Inflation, And Energy As Constraint 31:17 — Europe, Korea, And Defense Capacity 38:02 — Software’s Reset And Duration Risk 46:30 — Timelines, Diffusion, And S-Curves 53:05 — Active Selection Across Regions 59:15 — Building Firms With AI Force Multipliers 1:03:49 — Mentors, Simplicity, And Implicit Knowledge 1:05:44 — Closing And Disclaimers Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	We’ve Got a Lot of Problems (FvF Ep. 177)	04 mars 2026	00:52:51
Oil spikes. Gas jumps above $3. Inflation expectations shift in a matter of days. Suddenly the market isn’t debating disinflation or AI productivity. It’s asking whether we’re entering a new inflation shock. In Episode 177 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, walk through what’s happening beneath the headlines. They explain how the Strait of Hormuz disruption is impacting oil flows, why gasoline prices move markets faster than geopolitics, and how rate-cut expectations shifted dramatically in just one week. The conversation moves from energy markets to ISM prices paid, AI-driven infrastructure demand, memory chip shortages, and what this means for inflation volatility in the years ahead. Key Takeaways: • Oil shock hits fast: Disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude and gas prices sharply higher, immediately shifting inflation expectations • Rate cuts repriced: Markets quickly reduced expectations for multiple Fed cuts as inflation data and energy pressures mounted • Inflation volatility regime: Elevated base inflation combined with external shocks increases the risk of short-term price spikes • AI demand adds pressure: Infrastructure buildout and memory chip shortages are contributing to near-term pricing strength • Economic backdrop still stable: Leading indicators suggest the economy entered this period near trend, not in recession territory • Portfolio construction matters: We believe diversifying beyond traditional bonds remains critical in a more inflation-sensitive world. Jump to: 0:02 — Setting The Stage: Problems Pile Up 1:08 — Gas Price Surge Hits Home 2:46 — Markets Sell Off And Tech’s Role 3:43 — Oil Jumps And Strait Of Hormuz Risk 6:15 — Energy, Diesel, And Food Cost Pressures 8:38 — Firsthand Gulf Perspective And LNG Shock 12:35 — Portfolios For 3% Inflation World 16:24 — Gold, Bonds, And Risk-Off Mechanics 20:07 — Fewer Fed Cuts And PCE vs CPI 24:55 — Small Caps, Rates, And Risk Appetite 28:40 — Fed Independence And Politics Reality 32:48 — Inflation-Volatility Regime, Not The 1970s 36:48 — Diversify Your Diversifiers Strategy 40:25 — VIX Spike And Geopolitics Playbook 45:10 — Trend vs Recession: Leading Indicators 49:22 — ISM PMI: Expansion But Price Pressure Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Social Hour With Cullen Roche (Social Hour Ep. 2)	03 mars 2026	01:02:17
The Social Hour format loosens things up, and this time Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by Cullen Roche, founder of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism and Your Perfect Portfolio. What makes this conversation different is Cullen’s dual lens. He thinks like a macro investor, but he builds portfolios like a financial planner. That combination leads to a deeper discussion around matching assets to liabilities, duration, inflation realities, and how advisors should think through long-term construction instead of reacting to headlines. Key Takeaways: • Narrative vs. numbers: Headlines move quickly, but underlying data often tells a steadier story • Sentiment remains dynamic: Investor positioning continues to shift alongside economic signals • Leadership rotation continues: Sector performance reveals subtle changes beneath the surface • Macro themes persist: Growth, inflation, and policy remain central drivers of direction • Perspective matters: Long-term discipline still anchors sound decision-making Cullen Roche is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by this individual may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 - Live Kickoff And Colin’s Books 2:50 - First Principles Over Financial Noise 6:10 - Origins Of Pragmatic Capitalism And QE 11:30 - From Anonymous Blogger To Public Voice 13:40 - We’re Savers, Not Stock Pickers 17:53 - Inflation Jitters And Market Divergences 23:30 - Diversification Vs Diversification 28:20 - Simplicity, Costs, And Portfolio Design 32:40 - Behavioral Bias: You Are The Risk 38:00 - Macro Claims And What Doesn’t Compute 44:00 - AI’s Disruptive Decentralization 50:10 - Labor, Layoffs, And Data You Can Trust 55:20 - Small Caps, International, And Factors Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Cullen: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cullenroche/ • X: https://x.com/cullenroche Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	No Tariffs for You! (FvF Ep. 176)	25 févr. 2026	01:04:35
A Supreme Court decision wipes out a major tariff mechanism, GDP comes in softer than expected, and AI fears collide with an AI spending boom. On the surface, it feels like three separate stories. In Episode 176 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, connect the dots and ask a bigger question: what actually changed, and what simply made headlines? They break down the Court’s ruling on IEEPA tariffs, what it means for policy going into a midterm year, and why markets barely flinched. From there, the conversation shifts to fourth-quarter GDP, where a weak headline number masked far stronger private demand beneath the surface. The episode then moves into the AI debate, examining the surge in hardware and software investment, the role of energy and power demand, and the viral “AI crash” scenario that sparked fears of a white-collar doom loop. Along the way, they explore global market leadership, sector dispersion, and why human behavior still sits at the center of economic outcomes even in a world shaped by algorithms. Key Takeaways: • Tariff authority reset: The Supreme Court’s ruling removed a major executive tariff tool, reinforcing checks and balances while reducing policy uncertainty • GDP weakness needs context: A government shutdown distorted headline growth, while private demand remained solid • AI spending is real: Hardware and software investment tied to AI contributed meaningfully to 2025 growth • Scenario vs. reality: Extreme AI displacement models raise important questions, but macro consistency and demand dynamics matter • Market dispersion is widening: Software weakness, industrial strength, and global outperformance highlight a split beneath the surface Jump to: 0:00 — Tariff Shock And Supreme Court Ruling 5:30 — Market Reaction, Odds And Policy Limits 9:40 — Tariff Refunds And Who Ultimately Paid 13:50 — China, Trade Winners And Political Timelines 22:00 — GDP Miss Explained And Core Demand Strength 31:00 — AI Capex Surge: Chips, Software And Scale 35:00 — Power Demand, Energy And Inflation Pressures 38:30 — The AI Doom Loop Scenario Debate 47:40 — Market Split: Semis, Software And Global Leaders 55:00 — Portfolio Implications And The Human Edge Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	A Tale Of Two Markets (FvF Ep. 175)	18 févr. 2026	01:00:37
Markets keep climbing, headlines keep swinging, and yet sentiment still feels stuck somewhere between cautious and confused. In Episode 175 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, zoom out to examine what is actually driving markets right now and where investors may be misreading the signals. From shifting expectations around growth and inflation to the way earnings, liquidity, and policy are interacting beneath the surface, they separate the emotional narrative from the measurable data. The conversation moves through current market leadership, valuation concerns, recession odds, and the risks that deserve attention without overreacting to every headline. They also explore what history suggests about similar environments, how positioning can amplify volatility, and why staying disciplined often feels hardest right when it matters most. Key Takeaways: • Earnings remain the foundation: Corporate profits continue to anchor market strength, even as narratives shift week to week • Sentiment lags fundamentals: Investor psychology still reflects caution despite improving breadth and resilient data • Policy and liquidity matter: Rate expectations, fiscal dynamics, and capital flows are shaping the next phase of returns • Volatility is part of the process: Pullbacks and headline shocks fit within historical patterns of ongoing expansions • Discipline beats drama: Long-term investors benefit more from structure and perspective than from reacting to every news cycle Jump to: 0:00 - New Titles And Warm-Up Banter 2:42 - Framing A Tale Of Two Markets 5:10 - Sector Splits And Market Breadth 11:55 - Global Equity Strength And Style Shifts 16:30 - AI Shockwaves Across Industries 22:40 - Tech’s Three Tracks: Software, Semis, Telecom 27:35 - Short Interest, Contrarian Signals In Tech 31:30 - International Rallies And Country Leaders 37:15 - Jobs Revisions And Labor Market Reality 44:20 - Youth Employment, AI Fears, And Data 50:05 - Spurious Correlations And Market Folklore 56:20 - CPI Details, Shelter Math, And Services Heat Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Deja Vu All Over Again (FvF Ep. 174)	11 févr. 2026	00:57:32
After a brutal stretch for software, AI-linked stocks, and crypto, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to ask a familiar question: are markets reacting to real deterioration, or replaying last year’s fear cycle with new headlines? As Claude-triggered concerns ripple through software and hyperscalers, they unpack their theories on why prices have fallen far faster than earnings, how valuation compression has reached levels not seen in over a decade, and why sentiment has turned sharply negative even as the S&P 500 flirts with new highs. From there, the conversation widens. Ryan and Sonu connect record-setting AI capital spending to broader profit growth, explain why global markets like Japan and emerging economies are quietly leading returns, and revisit Bitcoin’s drawdown through the lens of software, risk appetite, and historical market behavior. Along the way, they explore why recessions remain elusive amid massive fiscal and corporate investment, why breadth continues to improve beneath volatile leadership, and why moments that feel uncomfortable often end up shaping the next leg of the cycle. Key Takeaways: AI fear is recycling a familiar playbook: Software and tech selloffs reflect sentiment shocks more than collapsing fundamentals Valuations reset without earnings damage: Multiple compression has driven declines even as forward profit expectations rise Capex is reshaping the cycle: AI investment has reached historic levels with implications for growth, margins, and inflation Global leadership is expanding: Japan and emerging markets are outperforming as breadth improves outside U.S. megacaps Volatility feels louder than it is: Flat index returns mask sharp rotations that reward discipline over reaction Jump to: 0:00 — Kicking Off With Sports And Stocks 1:08 — Deja Vu: Tech Turmoil Returns 3:18 — The Claude Crash And Software Selloff 7:45 — Valuations, Momentum, And Narrative Risk 12:45 — Hyperscalers’ CapEx Arms Race 18:55 — Bitcoin, Correlations, And Sentiment 25:10 — Global Rotation: Japan Surges, Dollar Softens 30:20 — Dow 50K, Compounding, And Milestones 34:30 — Earnings Strength And Multiple Math 39:20 — Upcoming Data, Outlook, And Closing Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Social Hour With Brian Belski (Social Hour Ep. 1)	06 févr. 2026	01:02:16
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP and Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, went live for the very first Facts Vs Feelings: Social Hour livestream on Friday, 1/30. They kicked things off with special guest Brian Belski for a relaxed, wide-ranging conversation that blended big-picture macro, markets, and a bit of fun along the way. Jump to: 0:00 - Live Stream Kickoff And Banter 3:45 - Belski’s Background And Career Arc 12:30 - Founding Humilus And Investing Philosophy 20:10 - Gold’s Selloff, Fed Debates, And Inflation 31:00 - Secular Bull Market Case And History 40:05 - Travel Detour And Airport Talk 45:10 - Earnings Versus Multiples And Tech Leadership 53:00 - Financials, Mid Caps, And Small Cap Opportunity 1:00:00 Advisors, Building A Firm, And Contrarian Mindset Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Warsh & Repeat (FvF Ep. 173)	04 févr. 2026	00:49:32
After a quiet data week and a loud political signal, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into what a potential Fed leadership shakeup could mean for rates, markets, and investor expectations. With Kevin Warsh emerging as the likely next Fed chair, the discussion cuts past headlines to examine his long history at the Fed, his shifting stance on inflation and rate cuts, and why markets may be less willing to take his guidance at face value. It’s been one of the most volatile stretches for metals in decades, as gold and silver experience sharp pullbacks after a historic run. Ryan and Sonu break down why positioning and sentiment mattered more than headlines, and along the way, they connect the dots between capital-intensive tech investment, the emerging commodity supercycle, and why earnings strength continues to underpin equities despite leadership rotation and policy noise. Key Takeaways: Fed leadership uncertainty adds friction, not clarity: Kevin Warsh’s record reveals a pattern of convenient pivots that may limit his influence over a skeptical committee Rate cuts face structural resistance: Markets are pricing fewer long-term cuts as capital investment and nominal growth keep upward pressure on rates Metals volatility was about positioning, not fundamentals: Extreme bullish sentiment set the stage for sharp pullbacks despite intact long-term trends Gold and silver require sizing, not timing: Volatility, correlations, and rebalancing matter more than chasing short-term price moves Earnings continue to justify the bull market: Strong margins, industrial strength, and resilient consumer spending support risk assets even as leadership rotates Jump to: 0:00 - Setting The Stage: No Jobs Data 1:06 - Who Is Kevin Warsh 4:30 - Warsh’s Crisis-Era Record 9:10 - Politics, Hawks, And Rate-Cut Reality 14:20 - Balance Sheet Beliefs Challenged 19:45 - Gold And Silver’s Wild Swing 25:40 - How To Own Metals Wisely 31:10 - From Software To Capex Supercycle 36:50 - Productivity, Labor, And Rates 41:30 - Fun Signals: Super Bowl And January 46:05 - Earnings, Margins, And Momentum Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Rieder or Not, Gold Shines, & Shutdown Looms (FvF Ep. 172)	28 janv. 2026	00:58:34
After a powerful run in metals, renewed inflation pressure, and a shifting Federal Reserve backdrop, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to connect the dots between markets, policy, and positioning. Fresh off being named one of the Top 23 podcasts for financial advisors for the second year in a row, the conversation moves fluidly from gold’s breakout and the return of the debasement trade to the growing uncertainty around the next Fed chair and what it means for rates, inflation, and risk assets. They explore why commodities are flashing signals that don’t align with disinflation narratives, how productivity optimism collides with fiscal reality, and why global earnings strength continues to support equities even as leadership rotates. Along the way, they unpack the implications of a potential government shutdown, policy-driven margin pressure across sectors, and why markets tend to move past the headline faster than most expect. Key Takeaways: • Gold’s message is getting louder: Rising commodity prices, fiscal deficits, and rate pressure are reinforcing the case for metals as portfolio protection • The Fed chair race matters more than headlines: Rick Rieder’s emergence highlights the tension between productivity optimism and persistent inflation risks • Inflation remains sticky under the surface: Core services and commodity strength challenge the idea of a smooth glide back to 2% • Global earnings are doing the heavy lifting: Companies with international exposure continue to outpace domestically focused peers • Policy noise doesn’t derail trends: Shutdown risks and political uncertainty create volatility, but fundamentals keep asserting themselves — Check the 23 Top Financial Advisor Podcasts To Listen To In 2026: https://kitc.es/4pWNyA9 Jump to: 0:00 Cold Open, Awards, And Snow Jokes 2:35 Gold And Silver Surge Explained 8:40 The Debasement Trade And Inflation 14:50 Global Central Banks Rotate To Gold 19:30 Japan, Yields, Yen, And Risk Assets 23:40 The Fed Chair Horse Race Heats Up 30:20 Productivity, The 1990s, And Why Today’s Different 38:20 Fed Path: Holds, Politics, And Gold Tailwinds 42:30 January Barometer, Tech Lags, And Breadth 48:40 Equal-Weight Tech, Financials, And Policy Risk 53:40 Earnings Setup: Mega-Cap vs The 493 Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	When Do We Get Tacos? (FvF Ep. 171)	21 janv. 2026	00:53:21
After a long stretch of calm markets and steadily improving breadth, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, confront a sudden return of volatility driven by geopolitics, tariffs, and rising bond yields. They walk through why renewed trade threats tied to Greenland are unsettling markets, how bond yields are once again asserting their influence over policy and risk assets, and why metals are responding more decisively than equities. Along the way, they assess the durability of the bull market by digging into household balance sheets, leverage, labor dynamics, and the expanding leadership beyond mega-cap tech. The discussion ultimately circles back to a familiar theme: markets may react sharply to headlines, but fundamentals, earnings power, and financial resilience continue to shape the bigger picture. Key Takeaways: Tariffs and geopolitics are back in focus: Trade threats tied to Greenland and Europe are reviving volatility, even as markets wait for legal and policy clarity Bond yields are driving the response: Rising global yields are limiting diversification benefits and increasing pressure on policy credibility Metals are acting as a release valve: Strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects policy uncertainty and global demand Household balance sheets remain resilient: Lower leverage and elevated net worth are helping sustain spending and growth Market leadership continues to broaden: Small caps, mid caps, and cyclicals are reinforcing the underlying strength of the bull market Jump to: 0:00 — Cold Open And Safety Scare 3:00 — Setting The Stage: Worst Market Day 5:30 — Greenland Tariffs And Policy Chess 11:30 — Supreme Court Tariff Wildcard 15:30 — Yields Spike And Safe Havens Pop 20:00 — Tech Under Pressure, Small Caps Hold 25:30 — Market Breadth And AI Expectations 31:00 — K-Shaped Economy And Delta’s Split Cabin 36:00 — Household Balance Sheets And Leverage 44:00 — Asset Drivers: Housing And Stocks 50:00 — Bear-Market Risk And Feedback Loops Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Rumble in Washington (FvF Ep. 170)	14 janv. 2026	00:54:16
After a strong start to the year and renewed highs across global markets, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step into the growing tension between Washington and the Federal Reserve, and what it could mean for markets, confidence, and policy credibility. They react to Jamie Dimon’s latest comments on economic resilience, unpack the unusual legal pressure facing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and explain why markets appear far more focused on earnings and growth than political noise. Key Takeaways: Markets are prioritizing fundamentals: Earnings growth, productivity gains, and consumer resilience are outweighing the political headlines Fed independence is being tested: The legal and political pressure on the Fed raises long-term questions, but the markets remain focused on outcomes, not noise Metals are sending a signal: The strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects both global demand and policy uncertainty Labor markets are cooling, not breaking: Hiring is slower, but the layoffs remain low and prime-age employment stays historically strong Breadth continues to improve: The leadership is expanding beyond mega-cap tech, reinforcing the durability of the current bull market Jump to: 0:00 — Economic Resilience, Consumers, And Bank Signals 6:00 — Powell, Politics, And Central Bank Independence 12:15 — Gold, Metals, And Washington Crosscurrents 19:00 — Credit Cards, Housing Policy, And Affordability Risks 28:20 — Market Breadth, Diversification, And January Signals 31:10 — Labor Market Cooling, Youth Hiring, And Revisions 41:00 — Productivity, Margins, And Revenue Per Worker Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	2026 Market Outlook (FvF Ep. 169)	07 janv. 2026	01:07:04
After a volatile first half and another year of strong headline returns, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to assess what actually shaped markets in 2025 and what that foundation means heading into 2026. They revisit why early-year turbulence caught so many investors off guard, how companies navigated tariffs and margin pressure more effectively than expected, and why earnings growth remained the quiet backbone of the rally. The conversation then turns forward, covering their 2026 outlook for stocks and bonds, the role of AI-driven capital spending, global market leadership, and why sentiment continues to lag reality even as breadth improves. Along the way, they discuss inflation stickiness, labor market crosscurrents, policy tailwinds, and where diversification still matters most as the cycle matures. Key Takeaways: • Earnings did the heavy lifting: Profit growth and margin resilience, not valuation expansion, powered market gains • Volatility followed the script: Early-year drawdowns fit historical patterns despite widespread surprise • Global leadership expanded: International markets and cyclicals outpaced expectations as breadth improved • AI spending surged: Capital expenditures accelerated across major tech platforms, reinforcing long-term growth trends • 2026 outlook remains constructive: Above-average equity returns and modest bond gains hinge on steady growth without recession Jump to: 0:00 — Setting The Stage For 2025 1:48 — Tariffs, Liberation Day, And Market Bottom 4:30 — Sentiment, Concentration Myths, And Breadth 9:45 — Speculation Falls, AI Leaders Repriced 14:45 — Small Caps, Transports, And Rate Cuts 22:30 — IPO Drought, Private Markets, And Valuations 27:20 — Media Moments, Gold, And Diversifiers 32:20 — Fed Cuts, Dots, And Labor Revisions 40:10 — 2026 Playbook: Mid Caps, Financials, Healthcare 46:30 — Global Vs. U.S., EM Tilt, And Policy Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
	Geeking Out On Charts with Chris Kimble and Scott Brown (FvF Ep. 168)	31 déc. 2025	00:46:15
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, flies solo for this new episode of Facts vs Feelings, joined by longtime chart-watchers Chris Kimble, former CEO of Kimble Charting Solutions, and Scott Brown, Founder of Brown Technical Insights, for a wide-ranging conversation on what the market is signaling as 2025 comes to a close. They dig into market breadth, sector leadership, financials, commodities, and metals that have gone nowhere for over a decade, along with gold’s role, sentiment disconnects, and why certain “boring” areas may be setting up for something much bigger. The discussion blends technical analysis, long-term market history, portfolio construction, and the psychological side of investing, offering context for what could matter most heading into 2026. Chris and Scott are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 — Opening and guest introductions 1:41 — Market surprises and leadership shifts 6:05 — Financials, tech, and market breadth 12:10 — Gold, metals, and long-term breakouts 18:40 — Sentiment, seasonality, and market signals 26:10 — China, Fibonacci levels, and global setup 34:20 — Research, portfolio construction, and the 2026 outlook Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Scott: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-brown-cmt-22b62891/ • X: https://x.com/scottcharts?lang=en Connect with Chris: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-kimble-708b4681/ • X: https://x.com/KimbleCharting Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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