After a long stretch of calm markets and steadily improving breadth, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, confront a sudden return of volatility driven by geopolitics, tariffs, and rising bond yields. They walk through why renewed trade threats tied to Greenland are unsettling markets, how bond yields are once again asserting their influence over policy and risk assets, and why metals are responding more decisively than equities.

Along the way, they assess the durability of the bull market by digging into household balance sheets, leverage, labor dynamics, and the expanding leadership beyond mega-cap tech. The discussion ultimately circles back to a familiar theme: markets may react sharply to headlines, but fundamentals, earnings power, and financial resilience continue to shape the bigger picture.

Key Takeaways:

• Tariffs and geopolitics are back in focus: Trade threats tied to Greenland and Europe are reviving volatility, even as markets wait for legal and policy clarity
• Bond yields are driving the response: Rising global yields are limiting diversification benefits and increasing pressure on policy credibility
• Metals are acting as a release valve: Strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects policy uncertainty and global demand
• Household balance sheets remain resilient: Lower leverage and elevated net worth are helping sustain spending and growth
• Market leadership continues to broaden: Small caps, mid caps, and cyclicals are reinforcing the underlying strength of the bull market

Jump to:

0:00 — Cold Open And Safety Scare

3:00 — Setting The Stage: Worst Market Day

5:30 — Greenland Tariffs And Policy Chess

11:30 — Supreme Court Tariff Wildcard

15:30 — Yields Spike And Safe Havens Pop

20:00 — Tech Under Pressure, Small Caps Hold

25:30 — Market Breadth And AI Expectations

31:00 — K-Shaped Economy And Delta’s Split Cabin

36:00 — Household Balance Sheets And Leverage

44:00 — Asset Drivers: Housing And Stocks

50:00 — Bear-Market Risk And Feedback Loops

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

After a strong start to the year and renewed highs across global markets, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step into the growing tension between Washington and the Federal Reserve, and what it could mean for markets, confidence, and policy credibility. They react to Jamie Dimon’s latest comments on economic resilience, unpack the unusual legal pressure facing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and explain why markets appear far more focused on earnings and growth than political noise.

Key Takeaways:

• Markets are prioritizing fundamentals: Earnings growth, productivity gains, and consumer resilience are outweighing the political headlines
  
  
  
• Fed independence is being tested: The legal and political pressure on the Fed raises long-term questions, but the markets remain focused on outcomes, not noise
  
  
  
• Metals are sending a signal: The strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects both global demand and policy uncertainty
  
  
  
• Labor markets are cooling, not breaking: Hiring is slower, but the layoffs remain low and prime-age employment stays historically strong
  
  
  
• Breadth continues to improve: The leadership is expanding beyond mega-cap tech, reinforcing the durability of the current bull market

Jump to:

0:00 — Economic Resilience, Consumers, And Bank Signals

6:00 — Powell, Politics, And Central Bank Independence

12:15 — Gold, Metals, And Washington Crosscurrents

19:00 — Credit Cards, Housing Policy, And Affordability Risks

28:20 — Market Breadth, Diversification, And January Signals

31:10 — Labor Market Cooling, Youth Hiring, And Revisions

41:00 — Productivity, Margins, And Revenue Per Worker

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss how markets are responding to the government’s impending reopening, improving earnings, and shifting political dynamics. They unpack why consumer sentiment remains low despite strong market and economic data, explore the reality behind so-called “K-shaped” growth, and explain why they still see powerful tailwinds for investors heading into 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Government Reopening & Market Optimism: Ryan and Sonu expect the government to fully reopen within a week, though they highlight that split power in Congress has often aligned with positive stock performance.
• Political Shifts & Gridlock Effect: Off-year elections showed strong results for Democrats, setting up a potential split Congress—an outcome that markets have rewarded in past cycles due to reduced legislative volatility.
• Consumer Sentiment vs. Market Reality: Confidence levels remain near historic lows even as inflation cools and the job market holds steady. The hosts argue that perception, not data, is fueling pessimism.
• Earnings Strength & Global Tailwinds: S&P 500 earnings growth surged from 7.9% to 13%, with companies generating more than half their revenue abroad leading the way—evidence that global demand continues to support U.S. markets.
• Debunking the “K-Shaped Economy” Narrative: Sonu breaks down why claims of widening inequality are overstated, emphasizing that spending patterns and income distribution remain consistent with long-term trends.
• Labor Market Stability: Despite attention-grabbing layoff headlines, jobless claims and hiring plans show a resilient labor market, reinforcing the broader theme of economic strength beneath the noise.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

 Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketOutlook #InvestingInsights #EconomicUpdate #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #CarsonGroup

Bitcoin ETFs are one of the most anticipated and debated developments in the crypto space. 

What are the implications for the market, the economy, and crypto's future? 

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, speak with Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management about the impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the market, offering a new investment avenue. They explore Bitcoin's role as an asset class or currency within traditional portfolios. Ryan and Sonu also cover the CPI data, its implications for inflation, and market expectations.

Listen to the episode to learn about:

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data
• The stock market’s performance, historical seasonality, and the likelihood of a market pullback
• The increase in household net worth and credit card debt, highlighting the overall financial situation of consumers
• The significance of Bitcoin ETF approval and its impact on financial advisors and investors
• Fund flows from GBTC to new Bitcoin ETFs
• Adding Bitcoin to portfolios, its historical returns, volatility, and the potential benefits for investors
• The likelihood of Ethereum ETFs
• Short-term and long-term drivers of Bitcoin’s value
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Matthew Hougan: 

• LinkedIn: Matthew Hougan
• X: Matt Hougan 
• Bitwise Asset Management

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Matt Hougan is a well-known expert in the fields of cryptocurrency, ETFs, and financial technology. He currently serves as the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, which is the world's largest provider of cryptocurrency index funds and manages over $1.5 billion in assets.

Before this, he was the CEO of ETF.com and Inside ETFs. During his tenure, he played a key role in developing the world's first ETF data and analytics system, the most popular ETF media platform, and the world's largest ETF conference.

Matt serves as a board member for Equbot and is also a strategic advisor to several startups related to cryptocurrency and financial advising, such as Blockworks, Stratifi, and Exchange. He co-founded Advisor Circle, which is a product and content studio for the financial industry and also created the Futureproof Wealth Festival.

From the stock market hitting all-time highs to new tax bills, positive economic indicators, and even the Super Bowl, there's a lot to keep track of when it comes to finance and investing this week!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, provide an in-depth analysis of current economic indicators, including jobs, productivity, and consumer confidence. They also touch on the potential for a stock market breather in February amidst election buzz. Additionally, they examine a new tax bill that could inject more money into the economy and give the stock market a boost. 

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The stock market hitting all-time highs, historical February performance, and potential market consolidation
• A bipartisan tax bill moving through Congress and its potential impact on business and individual finances
• An analysis of the Super Bowl indicator and its historical correlation with stock market performance
• The Fed's approach to potential rate cuts and market expectations
• A comparison of income-driven and credit-driven economic cycles and their impacts on the economy
• An analysis of the strong job market report and consumer confidence data
• The importance of productivity in driving positive economic outcomes 
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

The stock market has been on a remarkable run, reaching new highs and defying expectations. 

But what are the drivers behind this rally, and what are the risks ahead? 

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze recent market trends, including the stock market's highs and the implications of the upcoming Fed meeting. They explore the significance of January's market performance, particularly in the financial sector, as an indicator for the year's outlook. Additionally, they cover the recent GDP report, offering insights into the economy's trajectory.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The positive implications of the market making new highs and its historical performance
• Potential factors that could disrupt the bullish market trajectory
• The significance of January performance and its potential impact on the market for the rest of the year
• Forecasting the Fed’s decision and its potential impact on the market
• The strong fourth quarter GDP growth, consumption, and investment spending, and its implications on the economy
• Comparison of nominal GDP growth in the US and China
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 
• Facts Vs. Feelings Ep. 69 - Can You Take Me Higher

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Now that the stock market has reached its all-time high, what can we expect?

Which ways can the latest economic indicators and international markets affect us?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the stock market's recent all-time highs and their implications for investors. They also cover the importance of manufacturing and high-tech industries for the economy. Additionally, they examine global economic factors, including China's influence on markets and the comparative strengths of the US economy.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Historical data on all-time highs, patterns of all-time highs over the years, and the likelihood of continued all-time highs
• Analysis of the increase in consumer confidence
• An analysis of retail sales
• The importance of manufacturing for the economy, including high-paying jobs and the impact on supply chains
• The positive trends in high-tech production and its impact on the economy
• The impact of Taiwan Semiconductor's growth on the semiconductor market and its implications for investors
• The impact of geopolitical tensions on the stock markets, particularly in Taiwan and China
• The impact of China's economic slowdown on global markets
• A Comparison of the growth rates of the US and China economies
• The potential momentum in small and mid-cap stocks and the significance of GDP growth
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

The world is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities in 2024. From geopolitical tensions and trade wars to technological innovations and environmental issues.

How can investors navigate these times? How will the emergence of cryptocurrencies and digital assets affect the financial system and regulation? 

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the economic outlook and global issues. They also dive into the implications of Bitcoin ETFs, volatility, and risk tolerance in cryptocurrency markets. Additionally, they touch on inflation and rates, referencing the CPI and PPI, the M2 concerns, and the male labor participation rate.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The geopolitical scene, focusing on the Red Sea issues and the impact on global shipping and oil prices
• The recent election in Taiwan and the potential impact on China
• The drama surrounding the Bitcoin ETF approval
• An analysis of inflation data, including CPI and PPI, and its impact on potential rate cuts by the Fed
• The significance of M2 being negative year over year and its potential impact on the economy
• The male labor participation rate and its comparison to historical levels
• The beginning of earnings season, bank performance, and significant developments in the aviation and technology sectors
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

With signals of growth faced against global uncertainties, what can we expect from the global economy in 2024?

How will these factors affect the performance of various sectors and markets, and what strategies can investors adopt to navigate this year? 

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, share their 2024 outlook on the economy and stock market. They analyze the surprises from 2023 and explain why there is still no likelihood of a recession. Additionally, they explore potential Fed rate cuts and provide an outlook for bonds, housing, manufacturing, and fixed income strategies.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Surprises and trends from 2023, including economic growth and employment gains
• The main drivers to avoid a recession
• The current labor market, job creation, unemployment rate, and wage growth
• Productivity's impact on economic growth and the outlook for 2024
• The likelihood of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and their potential impact on the economy
• The outlook for stocks and bonds in 2024
• The influence of housing demand, supply, and interest rates, as well as the impact of fiscal policy on manufacturing and construction
• The market's historical performance in midterm and pre-election years
• The strength in small and mid-cap stocks
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Happy New Year and welcome to the very first Facts vs Feelings episode of 2024!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze market trends and the outlook for 2024. They discuss the recent market rally, the role of inflation and the Federal Reserve, and the potential for continued growth, especially in small and mid-cap stocks. They explore economic cycle indicators, the impact of inflation and rate cuts, and the unpredictability of market returns. Forecasts for the S&P 500 are debated, with a focus on the likelihood of higher gains despite the challenges of accurate predictions.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Market trends and potential outlook for 2024
• Factors contributing to the recent market rally
• Performance of small and mid-cap stocks
• The significance of small-cap industries
• Early versus late economic cycle indicators
• Impact of inflation and rate cuts on market performance
• Forecasts for the S&P 500 for 2024
• Likelihood of positive returns in the market
• The importance of understanding odds and adjusting investment strategies
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

With 2024 just around the corner, there are big uncertainties for the U.S. economy regarding inflation, interest rates, political uncertainty, and a possible recession.

How can investors navigate this complex and volatile environment? What are the sectors to look at? 

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research, to explore the 2024 economic outlook of Ned Davis Research. 

They discuss the effects of the political uncertainty, what sectors to watch in 2024, the possibility of a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks and the implications of higher short-term interest rates. Additionally, they touch on the labor market, the Fed, and the possibility of a recession.

Together they discuss: 

• Ed’s over 20 years at NDR, emphasizing the collaborative and data-driven approach
• Whether the Fed can successfully achieve a soft landing for the economy and the potential turbulence ahead
• The chance of a recession and the factors contributing to this risk
• The political implications for the Fed's decision-making process
• The importance of considering both soft data and hard data in analyzing the economy and the mixed signals they provide
• The historical market performance during presidential election years
• The potential rotation towards small and mid-cap stocks
• Jerome Powell's performance as the Fed Chair
• The favored sectors and the underweighted sectors for the upcoming year
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ed Clissold: 

• Twitter: @edclissold
• LinkedIn: Ed Clissold
• Ned Davis Research 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Ed Clissold, CFA, is the Chief U.S. Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group. He and his team are responsible for the firm’s U.S. equity, style, sector, and equity theme analysis. They do so via a combination of a top-down analysis of the macroeconomic and fundamental environments and a bottom-up analysis of factors specific to the asset class, market cap, style, sector, or theme. He and his team also provide in-depth macro research on fundamental topics such as earnings, dividends, and cash flow.

Ed writes several U.S. Strategy publications, which provide an intermediate-term outlook on U.S. markets via a combination of top-down and bottom-up analyses. He also writes a quarterly Benchmarks report, which analyzes the attribution of returns across asset classes, sectors, market cap, and styles. 

Ed has held a number of other positions since joining the firm in 2002, including Global Equity Strategist, Senior Global Analyst in the Global Asset Allocation group, and Analyst in the Custom Research Services department. Previously, Ed worked at Strong Capital Management and as a Market Strategist at J.C. Bradford & Co. 

The U.S. economy has been showing signs of strength, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic and ever-evolving global uncertainties. 

One of the most encouraging indicators is the unemployment rate, which fell to 3.7% in November.

What does this mean for the markets? What is the outlook for 2024?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the current state of the economy and job market, inflation, and market performance. They address the good news of the unemployment drop, the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation, and the positive outlook for investors in 2024.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The positive trends in the job market, highlighting the recent good news in employment numbers
• The significance of the JOLTS report, highlighting Jerome Powell's concern over openings per unemployed worker
• The recent decrease in used car prices and its potential impact on inflation
• The current state of inflation and the Fed's decision to keep rates high, with speculation on potential rate cuts in the future
• Why small caps and mid-caps have been outperforming
• The positive stock market indicators
• An anticipation for the Fed meeting and the discussion on potential rate cuts for 2024, as well as the upcoming CPI report
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Recessions are periods of economic contraction that typically last for several months or longer. 

With all the news about a possible recession for 2024, will we actually experience one?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore some of the indicators and factors that suggest that the current economic situation is not indicative of a recession, and that the stock market is still optimistic about the future. They also pay tribute to Charlie Munger, one of the most influential and respected investors of our time, and share some of his wisdom and insights on investing and life.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The strong performance of stocks in November and the resilience of the 60/40 portfolio
• An analysis of the S&P 500 performance after gaining 8.9% in a month
• Quotes and insights from Charlie Munger, emphasizing his ability to connect with people through stories and his advice on investing
• The Dow and S&P 500 are at or near all-time highs, indicating that the market is looking forward and suggesting that a recession is not currently expected
• The strong performance and growth in manufacturing and construction sectors
• An Analysis of the robustness of balance sheets in corporate America and households
• The sustained strength of consumer spending, with references to net wealth, stock ownership, and consumption trends
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the powerful role of momentum in today’s markets and what investors should expect heading into year-end. They examine how the S&P 500’s impressive rally fits into historical context, why tech leadership remains dominant, and how market breadth and global participation are evolving. The conversation also explores the impact of Federal Reserve policy shifts, cooling trade tensions, and the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy.

Key Takeaways

• Historic Market Strength: The S&P 500 has gained nearly 23% over the past six months, placing this move in the top 4% of all six-month returns. History shows that strong momentum often leads to continued upside in the following year.
• Tech-Driven Leadership: The recent rally has been powered largely by technology. The Magnificent Seven continue to dominate, with the S&P 500 Technology Index up 44% over six months. 
• Global Momentum: It’s not just the U.S.—developed and emerging markets are rallying too. South Korea, Taiwan, and China are leading EM gains, while countries like South Africa, Mexico, and Japan also show strong performance.
• Economic Resilience: Despite talk of a “K-shaped” economy, U.S. GDP growth remains near 2%. Earnings are rising across sectors, with 80% of companies beating on both revenue and profits.
• Trade Tensions Easing: The U.S.–China trade war appears to be cooling, with both sides de-escalating tariffs and trade restrictions. China is resuming soybean purchases and suspending certain export controls, while the U.S. has paused new restrictions—reducing a major geopolitical headwind.
• Fed’s Delicate Balance: The Federal Reserve cut rates again, bringing total cuts to 150 basis points since the cycle’s peak. While inflation remains a concern for some members, Powell’s comments suggested a dovish tone, emphasizing that inflation pressures are manageable and economic momentum remains intact.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketMomentum #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #CarsonGroup #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #GlobalMarkets

The stock market is often a reflection of the economy, the consumer, and the sentiment of the investors.

Based on the increases we've seen over the past four weeks, what can we expect for the end of the year?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group chat about the year-end rally in the stock market, exploring factors such as seasonal trends, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and positive market sentiment. Additionally, they touch on record-breaking Black Friday sales, potential interest rate cuts, and the impact on the housing market.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The year-end rally in the stock market and the shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish
• The S&P's four-week win streak and the significance of persistent buying in the market
• The broadening participation of sectors and stocks in the market rally
• Black Friday sales and statistics
• Consumer debt and net worth, highlighting how households are in better financial shape now compared to pre-COVID times
• Why the increase in mortgage rates did not have a significant impact on the consumer and the housing market
• A speculation on the potential for inflation to decrease and rate cuts to occur in 2024
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

The Sahm Rule is an indicator that detects recessions in real-time based on changes in the unemployment rate. This rule was proposed by Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist and a leading expert on macroeconomic policy.

Today, we learn about the Sahm Rule and more!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Claudia Sahm, Independent Macroeconomist Consultant, about the Sahm Rule, unemployment, and the current economic landscape. They explore the Sahm Rule as an indicator of recessions, the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, and insights from Claudia's time at the Federal Reserve.

They discuss: 

• The origin of the Sahm Rule and its purpose as an indicator of recession based on the national unemployment rate
• The mismatch between the supply of workers and the demand for jobs
• The importance of shelter inflation in the Consumer Price Index 
• The current situation of low unemployment and strong wage growth
• Insights on the Federal Reserve's hiking and cutting policies
• The potential impact of recent productivity growth on long-term investments
• The biggest macroeconomic surprise for 2024
• The poor sentiment despite the economy performing well
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Claudia Sahm: 

• LinkedIn: Claudia Sahm
• Twitter (X): @Claudia_Sahm
• Substack: Claudia Sahm

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Claudia Sahm is an economist, formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. She is best known for the development of the Sahm Rule, a Federal Reserve Economic Data indicator for identifying recessions.

With the recent inflation data, can we say that the Fed has stopped raising rates?

How will this affect the economy if this is to happen? What’s next for the stock market for the remainder of the year?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group dive into inflation, the Federal Reserve, and the stock market. They explore the recent inflation data and its implications for the Fed. Additionally, they touch on the potential catalysts for a year-end market rally and the current state of credit spreads in the market.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The inflation data and how it confirms the belief that the Fed is done with rate hikes
• The positive impact of lower inflation on small cap stocks
• Why small caps and midcaps are performing well due to expectations of lower interest rates
• A potential year-end rally
• How rising interest rates negatively affected stocks
• The potential positive effects of lower interest rates on mortgage rates and housing activity
• Optimism about opportunities in the market
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

A number of factors and causing the stock market to continue to experience high volatility, causing uncertainty for investors.

With October’s correction, are there signs of a market bottom? A potential rally?

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Carsons' Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese explain why stocks may have just bottomed, despite the market correction and bearish sentiment. Ryan and Sonu discuss their predictions about the S&P 500's gain after the midterm elections, as well as the key factors affecting the labor market, and the significance and economic impact of rising productivity.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The recent market rally, including the Fed's influence, positive job numbers, and historical data on stock market corrections
• The historical trend of the S&P 500 being up on average 14.1% one year after midterm elections
• How the Fed's rate hikes in the past affected the economy and how the current pause in rate hikes is different
• An analysis of the recent jobs report, its impact on interest rates and stock market, and the potential impact of strikes on the numbers
• The Sahm Rule and its potential implications for a recession
• An analysis of layoffs and their impact on the overall job market stability
• The significance of productivity and labor force growth in driving real economic growth
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

October 2023 proved to be a challenging month for the stock market. 

Various factors, such as geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, earnings disappointments, and the Federal Reserve's policy, caused the market to suffer a decline in sentiment and confidence. 

What are the projections for the market's performance for the remainder of the year? 

In this episode, Carson's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese talk about the recent market correction and its potential as a healthy adjustment. They explore how geopolitical risks may have influenced the market and remain optimistic about a year-end rally. Additionally, they speculate on the Federal Reserve's actions. 

Ryan and Sonu discuss:  

• The recent stock market correction, its causes, and the potential for a rebound 
• Previous bear markets and their impact on market returns 
• The resilience of the economy despite challenges like the pandemic 
• McDonald's positive earnings despite price increases, indicating consumer demand and potential economic signals 
• The US economy's growth post-pandemic with other countries 
• The better-than-expected Q3 GDP growth 
• The increase in government spending and defense spending 
• Three lesser-known positive indicators in the economy 
• The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting and the likelihood of a rate hike 
• And more! 

Resources: 

• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47) 
• Talking Investing Lessons with Cliff Asness (Ep. 55) 
• Talking About the Bond Bear Market with Daniel Ivascyn (Ep. 57) 

Connect with Ryan Detrick:  

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick 

Connect with Sonu Varghese:  

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese 

The global economy is facing unprecedented challenges and uncertainties, which has disrupted supply chains, boosted inflation, and strained fiscal and monetary policies.

How can investors navigate this complex and volatile environment, and what are the implications for the bond market?

Today, we chat about this and more with a very special guest!

In this episode, Carson's Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese speak with Daniel Ivascyn, Group Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO. They explore the current state of the economy, rising yields, and the future path of inflation. Dan also shares details about the role of PIMCO's advisory board and the value of bonds as diversifiers for stocks. Additionally, he talks about his experiences in the industry, his mentors, and his early experiences.

They discuss: 

• The main drivers behind the increase in yields
• Why the economy has remained strong despite the aggressive actions of the Federal Reserve
• The factors influencing nominal bond yields
• The experience of taking over a large company
• The value in fixed income markets for long-term investors
• The role of bonds as a diversifier for stocks
• Concerns about companies with lower credit ratings facing challenges in borrowing and rolling over debt
• His early struggles in trading markets and the mentorship he received
• Why US treasuries are still considered a safe asset and how they can benefit from flight to quality flows during times of crisis
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Daniel Ivascyn is the Group Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO,and a managing director in the Newport Beach office [which office/company? Are we still talking PIMCO?]. He is lead portfolio manager for the firm’s income, credit hedge fund, and mortgage opportunistic strategies, and is also a portfolio manager for total return strategies. He is a member of PIMCO's Executive Committee and a member of the Investment Committee. Morningstar named him Fixed-Income Fund Manager of the Year (U.S.) for 2013, and he was inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame in 2019. Prior to joining PIMCO in 1998, he worked at Bear Stearns in the asset-backed securities group, as well as T. Rowe Price and Fidelity Investments. He has 33 years of investment experience and holds an MBA in analytic finance from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and a bachelor's degree in economics from Occidental College.

The Middle East is home to some of the world’s oldest civilizations, religions, and cultures.

At the same time, it is the scene of some of the most pressing geopolitical issues of our time. 

The recent escalation of violence between Israel and Hamas has raised concerns about the stability of the region and the prospects for peace, and the situation also presents opportunities and challenges for the global economy, particularly the oil markets. 

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Matthew Gomoll, MBA, CEPA, CEP®️, Partner, Wealth Advisor at Carson Wealth. Matt shares his insights on the complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine, including the potential implications for the region and the world. Ryan and Sonu also cover the impact of geopolitics on the stock market, inflation, and the economy, and the outlook for the stock market in the coming year.

They discuss: 

• Matt's background as a wealth advisor and former U.S. Army Special Forces officer
• The geographical and historical context of Israel's position in the Middle East and the ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Hamas
• The impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict on the markets
• Historical examples of how stock markets have performed in the aftermath of major geopolitical events
• How the US has become the largest producer of oil and its shift from being a net importer to a net exporter
• The concept of excess savings and its impact on the economy
• The performance of small caps and financials in the first year of a bull market and the potential outlook for 2024
• And more!

Resources:

• Sign up now to the 2023 Excell Represent Conference

Connect with Matthew Gomoll: 

• LinkedIn: Matthew Gomoll

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Matthew Gomoll has seen firsthand what a difference financial planning can make – not just for your wealth but for your life.

His passion is to truly help clients work towards their goals. Whether that is feeling comfortable to retire, preparing a business to sell, buying that vacation home you’ve always wanted, finally paying off that debt weighing you down, or caring for a loved one in old age, the measure of his success is when you do the things in life that are important to you.

His background as a Special Forces Officer gave me years of experience listening, identifying root issues, and communicating in terms that can be easily understood. Matthew's service has also instilled the values of integrity, duty, loyalty, and quick thinking under fire – skills and values he draws on every day as an advisor.

As a CERTIFIED EXIT PLANNING ADVISOR and CERTIFIED ESTATE PLANNER™, Matthew enjoys leading efforts on your behalf across a team of CPAs, attorneys, bankers, and other professionals to help you make the best decisions possible for your family or your business. He has specific experience in helping business owners grow the value of their business and position it for an eventual transition. Matthew also specializes in working with estate planning attorneys on all of the financial considerations for a family’s estate. 

Investing is a complex and uncertain activity that requires careful analysis, discipline, and patience. 

There are many factors that can influence the performance of different investment strategies, such as market conditions and investor preferences.

Today, we speak with a leading figure in the field.

In this special edition of the Facts Vs. Feelings podcast, recorded live at the Excell conference in Nashville, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Cliff Asness, Managing and Founding Principal at AQR Capital Management.

Together, they chat about investment management, the importance of understanding uncertainty in the market, and the need to learn from past mistakes. They also touch on topics such as market bubbles, momentum strategies, and the parallels between decision-making in sports and investing.

They discuss: 

• The challenge of quantifying investment strategies and determining if they align with clients' expectations
• A critical mistake made during the launch of his firm, AQR
• A definition of a bubble and examples of past bubbles in the market
• Cliff’s journey from considering law school to becoming a quantitative finance researcher, highlighting pivotal moments
• The challenges and misconceptions surrounding momentum investing
• Cliff’s research on the optimal time to pull a hockey goalie and how it relates to investment strategies
• The parallels between sports and investing
• And more!

Connect with Cliff Asness: 

• LinkedIn: Cliff Asness
• X: Cliff Asness
• Website: AQR Capital Management

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest: 

Cliff Asness is a Founder, Managing Principal, and Chief Investment Officer at AQR Capital Management. He is an active researcher and has authored articles on a variety of financial topics for many publications, including The Journal of Portfolio Management, Financial Analysts Journal, The Journal of Finance, and The Journal of Financial Economics. He has received five Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Awards from The Journal of Portfolio Management in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2014, and 2015. Financial Analysts Journal has twice awarded him the Graham and Dodd Award for the year’s best paper, as well as a Graham and Dodd Excellence Award, the award for the best perspectives piece, and the Graham and Dodd Readers’ Choice Award. He has won the second prize of the Fama/DFA Prize for Capital Markets and Asset Pricing in the 2020 Journal of Financial Economics. In 2006, the CFA Institute presented Cliff with the James R. Vertin Award, which is periodically given to individuals who have produced a body of research notable for its relevance and enduring value to investment professionals. 

Prior to co-founding AQR Capital Management, he was a Managing Director and Director of Quantitative Research for the Asset Management Division of Goldman Sachs & Co. He is on the editorial board of The Journal of Portfolio Management, the governing board of the Courant Institute of Mathematical Finance at NYU, the board of directors of the Q-Group, the board of the International Rescue Committee and the board of trustees of The National WWII Museum. 

Cliff received a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School and a B.S. in engineering from the Moore School of Electrical Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania, graduating summa cum laude in

Fourth quarters are often crucial times for the economy and the markets as they capture the trends from previous quarters and set the tone for the next year. 

However, this year’s fourth quarter may be more uncertain and volatile than usual...

What can investors do to prepare for the potential challenges and opportunities ahead?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese share their expectations for the fourth quarter, including the potential impact of a government shutdown. They also explore the historical performance of the stock market in Q4 and the strength of the dollar.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The impact of a government shutdown on the economy
• An analysis of the historical performance of the fourth quarter
• The strength of the economy and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates more than anticipated
• The risk of an energy shock and how it can impact portfolios
• An analysis of the weakness of regional banks and its impact on small caps
• The recent personal consumption expenditures report, core inflation trends, income growth, and consumption levels
• The surprising increase in net wealth among the bottom 50% of income earners over the last three and a half years
• And more!

Resources:

• Facts Vs. Feelings (Ep. 53) - Talking About the Economy with Alejandra Grindal

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Dive deep into the pulse of the economy with top experts!

In this special live edition episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese chat with Alejandra Grindal, Chief Economist at Ned Davis Research. Together, they dissect the influence of macroeconomics on investment choices, unravel the pandemic's effect on inflation, consumer confidence, and retail sales, and shed light on the profound influence of the global landscape, especially China, on the US.

They discuss: 

• The correlation between the stock market and the economy
• The impact of the pandemic on inflation and whether it will be a long-term or temporary effect
• Reasons behind the low productivity growth and its potential impact on long-term economic growth
• The importance of business investment for productivity
• How consumer indicators can be influenced by political polarization
• The importance of considering multiple indicators before making economic predictions
• The importance of the US economy and the impact of China
• And more!

Resources: 

• Website: Ned David Research
• LinkedIn: Ned Davis Research
• X: Ned Davis Research
• YouTube: Ned Davis Research

Connect with Alejandra Grindal: 

• LinkedIn: Alejandra Grindal

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Alejandra Grindal is the Senior International Economist for Ned Davis Research Group. She is the primary person in charge of the firm’s global economic outlook and is responsible for identifying global economic trends and themes, particularly as they relate to developments in equity, fixed income, commodity, and currency markets. In recent years Alejandra has been particularly focused on global demographics and labor force trends, China’s economic transition, and Japan’s lost decade. She joined Ned Davis Research Group in 2006. 

Alejandra is a member of the National Association for Business Economics, where she is co-chair of the International Roundtable. She is a frequent speaker at professional and investment conferences and her work has been cited in the financial media. 

Prior to joining Ned Davis Research Group, Alejandra taught Microeconomics and Macroeconomics at Florida State University during her graduate studies and then worked as a full-time professor at Santa Fe College and Edison College. Alejandra also worked in the British Parliament as a research assistant, where she participated in policy and constituent research and campaign marketing.

Alejandra received her Masters degree in Economics and a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics and International Affairs, with summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa distinction, from Florida State University.

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, hosted a special Halloween livestream featuring Joe Fahmy, Managing Director at Zor Capital, and Warren Pies, Co-Founder and Strategist at 3Fourteen Research. Together they explore what’s driving markets at the end of 2025—from AI-led growth and investor sentiment to fiscal spending, oil, and the broader economic outlook. The result is an entertaining and insightful look at how two veteran strategists interpret this bull market and what it could mean heading into 2026 and beyond.

Key Takeaways

Joe Fahmy Segment:

• Broad-Based Bull Market: Joe sees strength well beyond the “Magnificent 7,” with AI, quantum computing, and clean energy creating multiple growth engines.
• Adaptability Over Bias: He stresses that successful investors aren’t perma-bulls or perma-bears. They adapt as the data changes.
• Technical Discipline: Joe relies on the 50-day moving average to define market health. Above it, stay constructive; below it, get defensive.
• Cautious Sentiment: He notes that many investors remain nervous, which helps sustain the market’s “wall of worry” and supports further upside.
• AI as the Next Revolution: He predicts the current bull market could extend into 2027 as AI transforms productivity similar to past technological breakthroughs.

Warren Pies Segment:

• Debasement: Warren frames today’s cycle as a shift from deflation fears to worries about fiscal expansion, debt, and currency dilution.
• Equities as Inflation Hedges: He highlights that S&P 500 earnings have outpaced inflation nearly every year since 2009, proving stocks’ resilience.
• Energy Outlook: Warren maintains a bearish view on oil, citing signs of oversupply and weakening global demand.
• Equity and Yield Outlook: He expects modest but positive stock gains through 2026 as yields drift lower and fiscal support remains steady.
• Economic View: Warren describes the U.S. economy as being in a “muddle-through slowdown,” with government spending and the wealth effect offsetting recession risks.

Joe and Warren are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Joe Fahmy:

• X: @jfahmy

Connect with Warren Pies:

• LinkedIn: Warren Pies

• X: @WarrenPies

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Markets #Investing #BullMarket #AI #Economy #Inflation #StockMarket #MarketOutlook

Live from the Excell Conference in Nashville, this week we bring you incredible stories and valuable guests!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Paul Hickey, Co-Founder: Bespoke Investment Group and Bespoke Market Intel, Sam Ro, CFA, Founder of TKer.co, and Frank Cappelleri, Founder and President at CappThesis.  

They cover various topics, including the current state of the economy, technical analysis, market trends, inflation, and the impact of higher energy prices on the economy. They also share their experiences running their own companies and the importance of adapting to market feedback. 

Together, they discuss:

• The message of the market from a technical point of view, focusing on bullish patterns and low volatility
• The weak consumer sentiment and its correlation with presidential approval ratings and inflation
• The early days of their businesses, including not having basic supplies, going independent, and the importance of listening to the market 
• The performance of small caps and the factors affecting their movement
• Details about their companies and how they help investors and advisors
• Whether the economy is in an early cycle or heading towards a recession
• The need to know your time frame when trading and the benefits of being market agnostic
• And more!

Connect with Paul Hickey: 

• LinkedIn: Paul Hickey
• Bespoke Investment Group

Connect with Sam Ro: 

• LinkedIn: Sam Ro
• TKer by Sam Ro

Connect with Frank Cappelleri: 

• LinkedIn: Frank Cappelleri
• CappThesis

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

With global markets impacted by various factors, exploring diverse perspectives and ideas is essential for investors.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Carson’s Group Investment Research Team, Barry Gilbert, VP, Asset Allocation Strategist, and Grant Engelbart, VP, Investment Strategist.

They discuss various topics related to investing, including the impact of US-China relations and the importance of considering other factors in portfolio construction. They also talk about the team dynamics at Carson Partners and the importance of being open to new ideas and perspectives in investing. Additionally, they emphasize the integration of investment and wealth management in financial planning and the advantages of working at Carson Partners.

They discuss:

• The impact of China's restrictions on Apple's revenue and the broader implications for US-China relations
• The growth potential of active ETFs and their impact on the market
• The need to be open to new ideas and perspectives in order to understand and navigate the complexities of the market
• The need to consider how different investment components fit together to achieve diversification
• The essential connection between investment and wealth management 
• The impact and accessibility of Carson Partners for advisors
• Their investment philosophy and how it has evolved over their career
• The recent disconnect between the US dollar and commodity prices, and the US's energy independence
• And more!

Connect with Barry Gilbert: 

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert

Connect with Grant Engelbart: 

• LinkedIn: Grant Engelbart

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Ready for a special episode of Facts Vs. Feelings?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese celebrate their 50th episode of the podcast! They chat about the recent jobs report, highlighting the increase in jobs created and the slight rise in the unemployment rate. They also touch on economic indicators such as yields, wage growth, and the manufacturing sector.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• An analysis of the monthly jobs report, discussing the number of jobs created, unemployment rate, and the health of the labor market
• The slowdown in nominal GDP growth and the misconception of recession
• The growth in manufacturing jobs and the strength of consumption
• The vacancy ratio, its relation to supply and demand for labor, and the Fed's interest in lowering the ratio
• Their key takeaways for reaching 50 episodes 
• An explanation of why September is historically the worst month for the stock market
• The historical performance of the stock market in August and the expectation for September
• And more!

Resources:

• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Navigating the landscape of debt and finance requires an understanding of the myths and truths that shape our perception.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese debunk seven common myths related to debt and finance. They provide insights and analysis on topics such as credit card debt, student loans, bankruptcies, and excess savings. Additionally, they address the topic of rising interest rates and its impact on the economy.

Ryan and Sonu discusses: 

• The concerns and perspective on the $1 trillion credit card debt and its relation to total assets
• The impact of student loan debt payments restarting and the potential effects on consumer spending
• The concept of excess savings during the pandemic and its potential depletion
• The recent decline in stock prices and sales for major retailers
• The increase in interest rates, specifically mortgage rates and credit card rates, and its implications for borrowers and savers
• The composition of US government debt and the ownership of that debt
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Do you feel like we’re in a recession? Well, the facts show us otherwise.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese talk about the current state of the economy, focusing on the importance of hard data in understanding economic trends. They discuss the strong economic data and retail sales, highlighting the significant increase in retail sales over the past three months. Ryan and Sonu also touch on how investment spending benefits productivity, the contrasting views between Leading Economic Indicators and consumer opinions, and the relationship between bonds and the stock market’s performance.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Recent strong economic data in retail sales and auto production and why the economy is stronger than we thought
• The positive impact strong industrial production has had on the economy 
• Why auto production has been soaring even more than it was pre-pandemic 
• The impact investment spending has on productivity 
• The contrasting views between the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and other economic indicators, such as PMIs and consumer sentiment
• The relationship between bond yields and stock market performance
• The importance of teaching children about investing and financial literacy
• And more!

Resources:

• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)
• Sonu’s Daily Note about auto/industrial production?
• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
• Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
• Ned Davis Research

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Macroeconomics is an all-encompassing, complex field, and it's critical to understand each of these large moving parts in order to analyze markets effectively. 

With the constantly changing fiscal policies, market indicators, and economic patterns, expert insights prove to be invaluable in guiding us through turbulent and unpredictable times.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Neil Dutta, Managing Director and Head of Economics at Renaissance Macro Research, to chat about macroeconomics and the current state of the economy. They explore topics such as recession risks, the impact of inventories on GDP, fiscal policy, and the limitations of indicators like PMIs. 

Neil discusses: 

• An overview of his career, his role at Renaissance Macro Research, and the three core macro verticals they cover
• The current state of the economy and the differing opinions on whether a recession is imminent
• How inventory restocking can contribute to economic growth and the potential positive feedback loop it creates
• The role of fiscal policy in shaping economic outlook
• The use of PMIs and other macro indicators in analyzing the market
• The concerns about the Fed prematurely declaring victory and the potential mispricing of the back end of the market
• And more!

Connect with Neil Dutta: 

• LinkedIn: Neil Dutta
• Renaissance Macro Research

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

As Head of Economic Research, Neil Dutta leads the macroeconomic research efforts at Renaissance Macro Research, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. 

Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada.

Neil appears frequently in the financial press, representing the firm on Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Associated Press, and has been featured in the New York Times for his out-of-consensus economic views on a host of topics including employment, consumption, inflation, and housing.

A business economist with over 15 years of sell-side experience, Neil graduated Cum Laude from New York University with a bachelor’s degree, double majoring in Economics and Political Science.

One topic that has garnered attention this week is Fitch's decision to cut the US credit rating. 

This move has had implications for investments, interest rates, and overall market sentiment.

Want to learn more?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese explore the recent downgrade of US debt by Fitch, its implications, and market reaction. Ryan and Sonu also touch on gridlock in Washington, macro policy performance, and the positive outlook on the economy. Additionally, they analyze the current state of the labor market and its impact on the economy.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The Fitch downgrade of US debt and the reasons behind it
• The improvement in the debt to GDP ratio and the concerns about governance quality in Washington
• The Fed's credibility and their response to the highest inflation in 40 years
• The factors contributing to the rise in treasury yields and the impact of Fitch downgrading debt
• Various positive economic indicators
• Prime age employment population ratio: What you need to know about the low layoffs rates and strong hiring which indicate a tight labor market
• And more!

Resources:

• Excell Conference

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

After five consecutive months of gains on the S&P 500, what are the projections for the stock market?

Find out what the economy has been up to this week!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese chat about the latest economic updates, including the recent GDP report, positive indicators in the economy, the impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation, and the stock market. They highlight the surprising strength of the economy, positive trends in consumer spending and decreasing inflation, and the potential for the stock market to continue rising.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The recent GDP report, highlighting the better-than-expected growth of 2.4% in the second quarter
• How inflation has decreased and wage growth has come down
• The impressive GDP growth expected in the third quarter
• Positive earnings reports from companies
• The stock market projection for August
• The recent performance and potential upside of energy and industrial stocks
• The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike
• Predictions of no more rate hikes due to expected decrease in core inflation, vehicle prices, and housing rental inflation
• And more!

Resources:

• Facts Vs Feelings Ep. 44 - Talking About the Bull Market with Tom Lee 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

As the financial markets remain on the rise and unpredictable...

It is critical to seek guidance and insights from experts who have a complete understanding of market dynamics which is crucial for investors and enthusiasts alike.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Tom Lee, Managing Partner & Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC. They chat about Tom's perspective on the bull market and how he stays informed about the markets. They also talk about international perspectives, demographics, and credit in market growth. Additionally, they touch on inflation, the Fed's actions, and the importance of mentors.

Tom discusses: 

• What he looks at first thing in the morning regarding the markets
• The reasons behind his bullishness at the start of the year
• How regional biases impact market outlooks in Europe, Asia, and Latin America
• His motivation for leaving JP Morgan and starting his own research company
• How demographics and credit play a role in understanding growth and market trends
• The importance of maintaining a sense of humor in the unpredictable market
• The potential trajectory of inflation and the Fed's possible actions in the future
• The influential mentors in his career and the importance of finding a good mentor
• And more!

Resources:

• Sign up here for a 30-day free trial and 10% off a future Fundstrat subscription

Connect with Tom Lee: 

• LinkedIn: Tom Lee
• Fundstrat - Website

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research and has been top-ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served most recently as J.P. Morgan’s Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney. His areas of expertise include Market Strategy, Small/Mid-Cap Strategy, and Telecom Services.

Mr. Lee received his BSE from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania with concentrations in Finance and Accounting. He is a CFA charter holder and is an active member of NYSSA and the NY Economic Club.

Navigating investment options can be overwhelming.

That is why the financial world requires careful decision-making, disciplined processes, and diversification.

Today we speak with someone who knows this perfectly.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese chat with Meb Faber, the Founder and CEO of Cambria Investments. Meb talks about investment portfolios, ETFs, and the challenges of money management, highlighting the importance of focusing on the process rather than the glamor of investing. Additionally, Meb gives a valuable message to young people starting in their careers and investing and the importance of diversifying globally.

Meb discusses: 

• The difference between managing money and the business of money management
• The criteria for launching new funds and the importance of offering something different in the market
• The significance of incorporating both dividends and net buybacks in evaluating shareholder yield
• An analysis of the current market conditions with a significant spread between cheap and expensive stocks
• His advice to youngsters who want to start in the investment world and have a successful career
• Some of the top investment books, including "The Millionaire Next Door" and "Thinking, Fast and Slow"
• The importance of diversifying asset allocation globally, rather than being concentrated in the US market
• And more!

Resources:

• The Idea Farm
• Meb Faber - Website

Connect with Meb Faber: 

• LinkedIn: Meb Faber
• Twitter: Meb Faber
• Cambria Investments

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss why a strong year-end rally may already be underway. They explore the drivers behind market momentum, earnings strength, inflation trends, and the Fed’s next moves, while adding insight, a bit of humor, and practical perspective for investors heading into the final stretch of 2025.

Key Takeaways:

·       Seasonality on Investors’ Side: November and December have historically been strong months for equities, especially when the S&P 500 is up 15% heading into year-end.

·       Resilient Earnings: Nearly 87% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, one of the strongest showings in years.

·       Sentiment Still Skeptical: Surveys continue to show more bears than bulls, but confidence is building as investors look toward a possible year-end rally.

·       Inflation Cooling but Sticky: Core CPI rose just 0.23% in September (2.8% annualized), showing progress even as service-sector prices remain firm.

·       The Fed Turns Dovish: Rate cuts are expected to continue into 2026, potentially bringing policy below 3%—a setup that has historically supported markets.

·       Easing Trade Tensions: U.S.–China progress on tariffs and rare earths adds another macro tailwind to investor confidence.

·       Market Breadth: Equal-weight indexes across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq recently hit all-time highs, showing strength beyond mega-cap tech.

DON’T MISS our special Halloween livestream on YouTube starting at 10:30amCT this Friday, October 31, 2025! Click here for more info: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0alr4-vDLK8 

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags:
#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketRally #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #WealthManagement

As we approach the midpoint of the year, it's crucial to evaluate the current condition of the stock market and the overall economy.

What can we anticipate in the second half of the year?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak about the mid-year outlook for the stock market and the economy. They highlight positive performance and surprises, leading to a bullish outlook. They delve into the labor market, the Federal Reserve's decisions, and concerns like US-China relations and the semiconductor industry.

Sonu & Ryan discuss: 

• The unexpected rise and strong performance of the NASDAQ, particularly in May, with mention of NVIDIA's earnings report
• The outlook for stock gains and the potential for reaching all-time highs
• The performance and potential of developed international markets
• The state of the economy and the Federal Reserve's role in avoiding a recession
• Inflation, interest rates, and the Fed's stance on raising rates
• Potential worries that could disrupt the stock market, including the relationship between China and the United States
• The impact of geopolitical risk on inflation and how disruptions can affect the economy
• The stock market forecast for the year and the importance of grounding investment decisions in historical evidence
• And more!

Resources:

• Putting Theory Into Action with Jessica Golson, CIPM (Ep. 41)

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Despite being traditionally male-dominated, the finance industry is undergoing a significant shift as women make remarkable progress and break down barriers.

Today, we speak with a prominent contributor at Carson Group about her experiences in the financial world!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Jessica Golson, Senior Vice President, Investments and Trading at Carson Group. She shares her experiences as a woman in finance and her role overseeing Carson Investment Research's investment and trading teams. Additionally, they explore the evolution of the advisor role, the importance of tax planning, and Carson Group's core values of community.

Jessica discusses: 

• Her role in overseeing the investment team, investment platform, and trading team at Carson Investment Research
• A conversation about being a woman in the finance industry
• The changes in advisor roles over the years and how Carson Group supports its partners
• The various aspects of investment beyond portfolio management, including tax planning and funding retirement or education
• The importance of having support and education for advisors in making investment decisions and providing solutions to clients
• The sense of community and collaboration among advisors at Carson Group
• The importance of asking questions and not waiting for a certain role or position to suggest a change in the workplace
• And more!

Connect with Jessica Golson: 

• LinkedIn: Jessica Golson

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Jessica Golson received a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from the University of Nebraska Omaha, where she majored in Finance, Banking, and Investment Science, and minored in Management. In 2012, she received a Masters of Investment Management and Financial Analysis from Creighton University. She currently holds FINRA Series 7 and 66 security licenses.

She brings over 10 years of industry experience striving to help advisors succeed. Since starting in the industry as an advisor she has since held influential roles in Trading, Performance, and Management. In her previous positions, she sought out opportunities for operational efficiencies and acted as a catalyst of change; improving many of the processes and procedures.

Outside of work, Jessica soaks up every second she can with her husband Terrance, and their three amazing children, Wyatt, Jacob, and Adalynn.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Curious about the current state of the stock and housing market and what's coming up for the second half of the year?

Get up to date with the current market updates!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese explain the difference between hard and soft economic data and why it's important to look at both to get a better understanding of the economy. Ryan and Sonu also touch on the impact of Harry Markowitz on the investment industry, the potential for a strong July rally, and the current state of the housing market.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The difference between soft data and hard data
• Harry Markowitz and his impact on the industry through formalizing diversification and the return versus risk framework
• The possibility of a continuation of the summer rally in the second half of the year, citing historical data and momentum
• The valuations in the S&P500 — with a focus on the tech sector
• The importance of housing in the economy and how it is showing early cycle signals
• How housing has historically led recessions and how it took away from GDP for eight quarters in a row
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Ready for this week's market updates?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese talk about the recent Fed decision, its impact on the market, and general markets update. They cover inflation, retail sales, and statistics on the housing market. Additionally, they touch on the importance of diversifying your portfolio and being cautious about chasing shiny objects.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The recent Fed decision, projections for the economy, and the impact on the market
• An explanation of core inflation, the impact of energy, food, and vehicles, and the role of housing in the consumer price index
• An analysis of retail sales data, including auto sales and building materials, and its implications for consumer spending
• An explanation of the difference between headline and core inflation and how consumers experience inflation in their daily lives
• The recent positive housing data, including a 22% increase in housing starts in May and a 5% increase in permits data
• The recent strength of the stock market
• The mid-year outlook and potential gains in the stock market for the second half of the year
• The idea of diversifying investments outside the US, including mid and small-cap stocks, and sectors like energy and industrials
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

It's impossible to encounter the question, "What did you do today that brought you joy?" without Larry Sprung immediately coming to mind. In the latest episode, hosts Ryan and Sonu engage in a captivating conversation with Larry, delving into topics such as his partnership with Carson, the exciting release of his new book, and a multitude of other fascinating subjects. Larry's presence and his ability to evoke joy are truly unparalleled. The dynamic exchange with him in today's episode reminds us of the power of authentic connection and the happiness it can bring.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

In today's episode, Ryan and Sonu explore stocks, the economy, and the Fed. During the episode, they touch upon the popular TV series Succession, but fret not if you haven't watched it yet! They kindly provide a heads-up, allowing you to skip ahead and avoid any potential spoilers.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Tune in to this episode, live from Carson Group's Partner Summit as Ryan and Sonu engage in an enlightening conversation with Ron Carson. They delve into Ron's background, exploring his journey and beginnings, and provide insights into the current state of affairs. Don't pass up the opportunity to catch this captivating discussion!

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

In this episode, Ryan and Sonu are joined by a familiar guest, Libby Cantrill from PIMCO, to discuss the current state of the debt ceiling and take a brief look at the 2024 election.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Join Ryan and Sonu on stage at Carson Grouo’s Partner Summit where they share their insights on macro, the Fed, the Carson Investment Research Team, and more. You won’t want to miss this special episode!

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Ryan and Sonu discuss the economy in today's episode and address the two most pressing questions they are currently receiving from Carson Partners.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Summary:
In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Kate Hall, VP of Alternative Due Diligence at Carson Group. They dive into the “cockroaches in a bull market” conversation—what it means for credit markets, how private credit has evolved, and why due diligence and diversification are key in today’s environment. The trio also discusses gold’s surge, strong bank earnings, and why market signals still favor a solid finish to the year.

Key Takeaways:

• Credit Spreads – Markets remain steady with limited signs of broad stress.
• Private Credit Boom – The space has tripled since 2015, creating new risk dynamics.
• Diversification – Broad exposure cushions isolated defaults or fraud risks.
• Gold Momentum – Rising prices reflect sticky inflation and rate-cut expectations.
• Market Sentiment – A cooling VIX and broad participation support a strong Q4 outlook.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Kate Hall:

• LinkedIn: Kate Hall

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags:
#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #KateHall #PrivateCredit #Investing #Markets #BullMarket #Gold #MarketInsights #FinancialAdvisors #EconomicOutlook #Diversification

Ryan and Sonu are joined by CFRA's Sam Stovall for a discussion on the current state of the markets. In between sharing market insights, Sam lightens the mood with some of his typical humor.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

On today's episode, Ryan and Sonu talk about how dull things have been in the past week. They also review earnings and some of the projects Sonu has collaborated on with our partners at Wisdom Tree. Additionally, they will touch on the housing market, the economy, and briefly discuss the stock market.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

Ryan and Sonu review the positive indicators currently happening in relation to recession discussions, as well as inflation and market sentiment, in today’s episode.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.