Eurodollar University – Details, episodes & analysis

New information from various sources all around the US service sector shows a downturn taking hold in that segment with employment signals turning more and more negative. It confirms the ongoing and more decisive bull steepening continuing to take shape in the Treasury market. Even mainstream sources are having to cover the fact there is something big happening when you can see it in services.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNN A key part of America’s economy has shifted into reverse
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/07/economy/stocks-week-ahead-services-sector-slow-restaurants-stores/index.html

FRB Philadelphia August 2024 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/nbos-2024-08

Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity
https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/surveys/service_sector

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2024/2408

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

German observers are saying the economy has reached crisis proportions and the reason is what the US economy's weakness is doing to the rest of the world. Rather than recover as many in Europe had hoped, the situation has turned grim due to America's growing negatives. As one result, bulls are firmly in charge of all the curves.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

IFO Business Climate Index deteriorates (August 2024)
https://www.ifo.de/en/facts/2024-08-26/ifo-business-climate-index-deteriorates-august-2024

Dow Jones German business increasingly in trouble, Ifo survey finds
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2024082620/german-business-increasingly-in-trouble-ifo-survey-finds

WSJ German Economic Expectations Nosedive as Global Slowdown Fears Bite
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/german-economic-expectations-nosedive-as-global-slowdown-fears-bite-944996b5

S&P Global/HCOB Germany PMIs August 2024
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/3c59ed1870c24259ac3e62cfb7792724

deStatis Germany June Trade
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2024/08/PE24_300_51.html

Bundesbank Forecast for Germany: German economy slowly regaining its footing
https://www.bundesbank.de/en/press/press-releases/bundesbank-forecast-for-germany-german-economy-slowly-regaining-its-footing-933658

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Revisions are a normal part of high frequency data. Constant, near-exclusive downward revisions are not. Rewrites should be more evenly distributed which means these stats are overstating the economy. Plus, the problem is spreading hitting retail sales and IP as well as payrolls. While everyone went nuts over retail sales, the problem with July's number isn't just the likely downward revision.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Bloomberg Fed’s Goolsbee Says He’s Growing More Concerned About Employment
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-14/fed-s-goolsbee-says-he-s-growing-more-concerned-about-employment

Bloomberg Manufacturers Axe Products as a Factory Slowdown Lingers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-08-16/rockwell-rok-xylem-xyl-axe-products-as-factory-slowdown-deepens

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What would the price of oil be without Saudi Arabia's actions? What would Treasury yields be without the Fed? There is a way for us to determine what the underlying fundamental monetary and financial conditions really are which offers a rough approximation for both. Crude would be a lot less and market interest rates, let's just say there's no inflation whatsoever in these fundamentals. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We need to confront the fact there remains a serious problem in the US with Marxism. To successfully counter the threat REQUIRES first we understand why that is and what keeps it going. It's not enough to "clap back" with platitudes correctly pointing to Communism's barbaric history. Nor is the modern world's prosperity a sufficient counterargument. The true Socialist admits that's what capitalism was supposed to have accomplished. The entire matter revolves around whether that last statement truly is in the past tense. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

the Atlantic Why the Phrase 'Late Capitalism' Is Suddenly Everywhere
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/05/late-capitalism/524943/

QUB Law Society Demystifying late stage capitalism on both a global and national level: the ball and chain of a 21st century free market economy 
https://www.theverdictonline.org/post/demystifying-late-stage-capitalism-on-both-a-global-and-national-level-the-ball-and-chain-of-a-21st

AP Archive CAN973 FILE / ARCHIVE FOOTAGE OF VLADIMIR LENIN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IJbNwt9J00

RCM July 10, 2020 Socialism Would Have Been Easy to Discredit, Had There Been Growth
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/07/10/socialism_would_have_been_easy_to_discredit_had_there_been_growth_498699.html

The Atlantic 26 Years of Growth: Shanghai Then and Now
https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2013/08/26-years-of-growth-shanghai-then-and-now/100569/

NYT Nov 14, 1939
https://www.nytimes.com/1939/11/14/archives/browder-assails-pope-at-rally-here-he-tells-22000-at-the-garden.html

Time Magazine May 30, 1938
https://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19380530,00.html

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Hiring has near completely dried up in the US labor market, contrary to all mainstream talk of a booming economy. JOLTS hires was the lowest since March and April 2020, and apart from those the worst in six and a half years. That substantial weakness was further corroborated by some of the biggest companies in the world reporting sharply lower results on increasing consumer difficulties. Yet, everyone will be focused entirely on the Fed and its absurd "inflation" fixation. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

FOMC Chair Powell Press Conference Playback May 1, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0unztmcLvA

USA Today
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/03/07/job-market-cooling-despite-high-employment-numbers/72846912007/
Behind the rosy job numbers, Americans are struggling to find work

Bloomberg Starbucks Posts First Sales Drop Since 2020 During Global Pullback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/starbucks-sbux-sales-slump-as-customers-pull-back-across-the-world?srnd=all

Bloomberg  KFC Owner’s Sales Fall for First Time Since 2020
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/kfc-owner-s-sales-fall-for-first-time-since-2020-as-weakness-spreads

ISM Manufacturing Press Release
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/april/

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Evidence for demand destruction in the US economy is really piling up. Consumer sentiment tumbled, services businesses in parts of the country are shedding workers in a way and to a degree we only see during recession, and major Midwest manufacturing plunged. All that was just today. The common theme through each one is a change in employment conditions and not the good one. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

the Conference Board Consumer Confidence
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2024/2404#tab-comments

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The first bank failure of 2024 is a familiar tale. A relatively small institution in Philadelphia, by itself it doesn't really mean all that much. However, there are a couple of important developments to go along with the background which raise questions and a few concerns. Is this the second chapter for the bank crisis?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

FDIC Press Release
https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/fulton-bank-na-lancaster-pennsylvania-assumes-substantially-all-deposits

Republic First's last SEC filing
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000834285/6c29a651-35e8-48f3-8803-6b7376b1ab7f.pdf

Republic First's last posted balance sheet
https://investors.myrepublicbank.com/financial-info/balance-sheet/default.aspx

Bloomberg's April 2024 report on FDIC soliciting bids
FDIC Is Approaching Potential Buyers of Republic First
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/fdic-is-said-to-approach-potential-buyers-of-republic-first

Bloomberg's October 2023 report on FDIC soliciting bids
FDIC Sought Buyers for Republic First Before Investor Deal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-29/fdic-sought-buyers-for-republic-first-before-investor-deal

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This week's big miss in US GDP raises several questions about the state of the economy. It was significant enough to immediately call into doubt the soft landing. Last year's surge now appears to have been just a short run temporary jump, meaning GDP might be joining the majority of macro data indicating much sharper and more serious weakness than was though just before the data's release. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

S&P Global April 2024 flash PMIs
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It's not just that Japan's yen is crashing, it's what a yen crash means to everyone not only in Japan. But why? All you'll hear from the mainstream and most "experts" is that every currency exchange rate movement including JPY must be somehow related to a central bank, especially the Fed. It's a myth easily debunked. When doing the debunking the real truth emerges and it's not good. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Yen Drops Beyond 158 Per Dollar as BOJ Keeps Key Rate Unchanged
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-26/yen-drops-to-fresh-34-year-low-as-boj-keeps-key-rate-unchanged

Trilateral Ministerial Joint Press Statement
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2264

FOMC Transcript February 1998
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980204meeting.pdf

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU