In Part 8 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the NFC East and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

In Part 7 of a special offseason projection series, Mike Leone and Ben Gretch analyze the AFC East and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

Mike Leone, Anthony Amico, and Evan Silva of Establish The Run conduct a 2-round Mock Draft to help you prepare for your upcoming rookie drafts.

Mike Leone of Establish The Run breaks down last season's most popular RB backfield pairings.

-How often did the field handcuff their RB1?
-How did handcuffing impact advance rates? Top 1% scores?
-Which type of backfields were most profitable to handcuff?

Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Shawn Siegele of RotoViz joins Mike Leone of Establish The Run to talk about Quarterback strategy in SuperFlex Dynasty leagues.

-How important is it to get a stud QB?
-How do league settings impact QB value?
-What are the benefits and drawbacks of a patchwork QB team?
-Who are late-round QB targets who could quickly see a bump in their Dynasty value?

Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Jack Miller and Mike Leone of Establish the Run describe what the RB dead zone is, why it was such a profitable area of the draft to target WRs and avoid RBs last season, and how you should approach that area of the draft in light of this year's ADP landscape.

Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Erik Beimfohr of SpikeWeek.com joins Mike Leone of Establish The Run to talk about lessons learned from Best Ball Mania 2 and what we can do to position ourselves to win Best Ball Mania 3:

-Why the Trey Lance pick went wrong and we're buying again
-Falling in love with Week 17 game stacking
-When and how to get unique with roster construction
-The power of elite QBs

Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Mike Leone discusses why there is a unique opportunity in the FFPC TriFlex Dynasty leagues to try out a Zero RB strategy in your startup draft. The market doesn't quite fully value the benefits of being deep at WR and acquiring extra players in the first 10 rounds, especially in best ball.

Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Jack Miller of Establish The Run joins Mike Leone to discuss how the different best ball tournament structures on Underdog, FFPC, and Drafters work and how to tweak your draft strategies accordingly.

Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Underdog Fantasy has announced that their big summer best ball tournament, Best Ball Mania 3, will have a $10 million prize pool, including individual prizes of $2 million, $1 million, and $1 million.

The winner of the original Best Ball Mania, Justin Herzig, joins Mike Leone of Establish The Run to break down the macro strategy of how to best attack this tournament to maximize your odds of taking home a big prize and get a lot of entertainment along the way.

Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run. First time depositors will received a deposit bonus up to $100.

Mike Leone of Establish The Run takes you through his rookie draft rankings and tiers, telling you which players to draft, when you should target them, and what trades you could make based on your league rules and team's positioning:

-Breece Hall the 1.01
-Pounding WR between 1.02 and 1.07
-How to approach the overvalued Kenneth Walker
-David Bell a priority target at current ADP
-How to take advantage of these market mistakes: overconfidence, short term thinking, and overreactions to positional scarcity

Use promo code ETR to sign up for Underdog Fantasy: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run

Jack Miller and Mark Dankenbring of Establish The Run join Mike Leone to recap the NFL draft and figure out where to rank all of the incoming rookies while implementing a sound Underdog tournament strategy:

-Are any QBs worth drafting outside of Kenny Pickett?
-Breece Hall is the clear rookie RB1. Who is RB2?
-Treylon Burks a surprise WR1 over Drake London among rookies on Underdog
-Impact of the AJ Brown and Marquise Brown trades
-And way more!

Evan Silva and Anthony Amico of Establish The Run join Mike Leone for a 2-round mock draft with a SuperFlex TE Premium format. Tune in to find out how a wild NFL Draft will impact your Dynasty Rookie drafts.

-Why Drake London is the 1.01
-How fall does Kenneth Walker fall?
-Where do we start taking the QBs?
-How to handle unexpected draft capital for athletic WRs like Christian Watson

Please check out the Establish the Run Youtube page to see the full video: https://www.youtube.com/c/EstablishTheRun

Mike Leone and Anthony Amico discuss two of this year's top prospects, Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr., while also taking a look back at the last three years of rookie drafts.

Anthony Amico and Mike Leone of Establish The Run take a look at how to evaluate QB and TE prospects in general, how that fits into Dynasty Rookie drafts, and how the 2022 class shakes out:

-Malik Willis is in a tier of his own
-Kenny Pickett's high floor but low ceiling
-Draft Capital will be important for Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder
-Trey McBride is the firm TE1 in this class
-Jelani Woods has a profile to bet on at the end of the 2nd Round in TE premium rookie drafts

Kyle Daily joins Mike Leone of Establish the Run to talk through the best ways to structure your dynasty leagues to maximize entertainment and competitiveness.

-Managed versus Best Ball
-SuperFlex/Tight End Premium
-The Importance of Slow Drafts
-Snake or Auction Startup
-The Best Rookie Draft Structure

Mark Dankenbring and Jack Miller of Establish the Run recap the crazy NFL offseason and give you their takes on who has gained and lost the most value and what opportunities exist at current ADPs on Underdog and FFPC.

-Russell Wilson to Denver
-Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper to Cleveland
-Tyreek Hill to the Miami
-Davante Adams to the Las Vegas
-Brady unretiring and getting the gang back together in Tampa Bay

and much more!

JJ Zachariason of lateround.com joins Mike Leone to talk about evaluating RB prospects, both in general and specific to the 2022 draft class. 

Specifically, the duo discuss:
-What matters when evaluating RB prospects
-Why draft capital is important
-How to use speed score in RB evaluations
-College receiving share as an important indicator of versatility and talent (and a potential warning sign for Kenneth Walker)
-Breece Hall as the Top RB in the class
-Why both JJ and Anthony Amico are higher than the market on Rachaad White

Pat Kerrane of NBC Sports Edge and Ship Chasing joins Mike Leone to discuss Year 1 to Year 2 WRs and how we should value them in both dynasty and redraft:

-what metrics to look for in year 1 NFL performance
-how to weight that against prospect profiles
-Ja'Marr Chase da god
-Jaylen Waddle's value with Tyreek Hill in town
-Kadarius Toney changing minds
-Terrace Marshall disaster

and much more!

Anthony Amico joins Mike Leone to talk about evaluating WR prospects, both in general and specific to the 2022 draft class. Amico provides updated Dynasty rankings all year round on Establish The Run.

Specifically, the duo discuss:
-What matters when evaluating WR prospects
-Why age and early declares matter
-Why we care about stats like yards per team pass attempt
-ETR's tier 1 of dynasty WRs (Drake London, Treylon Burks, Garret Wilson)
-ETR's tier 2 of dynasty WRs (Jameson Williams, David Bell, Skyy Moore)
-Why Amico is lower than the market on Chris Olave
-Which other WRs could see a big rise in rankings if their draft capital came in better than expected

Two of the best NFL DFS Showdown players, Cody Main and Colin Drew, join Mike Leone to talk high level showdown strategy and how we can apply those contests to this year's Super Bowl:

-Common Mistakes People Make
-Who to Play at Captain and How to Build Around That
-Which correlations are overlooked? Underutilized?
-How Can We Get Unique in a Smart Way

Mike Leone takes a look at Establish The Run's updated playoff rankings and how to make the best use of them:
-Understanding when to use positional scarcity
-Evaluating the many muddled RB situations

He also takes a look at specific strategy for FFPC and NFFC:
-why there are obvious smart leverage opportunities in KC, CIN, and SF that could play huge dividends
-trying to figure out what swaps to make in NFFC based on your position relative to the field, how the bracket played out for your team, and working backwards from the multipliers you want in the Super Bowl

Pat Kerrane of NBC Sports Edge and Ship Chasing joins ETR's Mike Leone to discuss strategy for the FFPC Playoff Challenge contest. The two discuss:

-Common mistakes drafters make
-How to use scenario planning to make better teams
-Why people undervalue first round upsets
-When galaxy braining goes too far

Chris Vaccaro of The Athletic joins Mike Leone of Establish The Run to talk about NFFC's playoff fantasy contest. It's a unique multiplier contest that creates a lot of avenues for potential edges. Among those, Mike and Chris talk about:

-Scenario Based Selections and Working Backwards
-Why it's *good* to have a couple of skill players lose in Round 1
-How to get contrarian in smart way
-Why Dak Prescott provides multiple avenues for you to win

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch take a closer look at Week 16's NFL slate with GPPs in mind. They search for the best game environments for stacking and talk through some correlated plays.

Mike Leone and Anthony Amico take a look at why format and rules are dictate your playoff fantasy football strategy. Stemming from that, the duo look at how to calculate expected games played and how to use that based on your league format.

The two then galaxy brain some playoff betting takes, taking a look at:
-Market shopping and reducing the hold
-The known unknowns that can cause markets/models to misprice playoff odds
-Why the Titans are one of those teams

Justin Herzig, co-founder of Own The Moment and ETR contributor, joins Mike Leone to talk playoff best ball on Underdog. The unique playoff contest offers a lot of room for edges. The duo discuss:

-Understanding the rules
-Winning via Roster Construction, not Player Values
-Stack 2 or 3 teams and which teams work together best
-It's better to get the best players on a worse team than worse players on a better team
-Taking advantage of uncertainty (Never Middle!)

Justin also talks about Own The Moment's NFT Fantasy Football platform - The Owner's Club. Tune in to find out how you can participate in their version of Playoff Fantasy Football.

Madison Parkhill (@MadisonParkhill) of RotoViz joins Mike Leone to review the best ball regular season and preview the upcoming playoffs, plus analyzing the good, bad, and ugly of their own teams:

-Extreme strategies rule the day
-Leonard Fournette bias is killing us
-Mike cries over his rookie QB exposure
-How can we get unique "Super Teams" without sacrificing advance rate
-Is ZeroRB set up to smash the Underdog playoffs?

Chris Allen, contributor of 4for4, FootballGuys, and NBC Sports Edge, joins Mike Leone to discuss the impact of weather on fantasy football: At what point should we be worried when it comes to wind and precipitation? How do real NFL teams alter their game plans based on the weather?

Additionally the two talk about:
-Our Bengals
-Mike's Thunderdome victory
-Chris' Home Brewing
-Road Race Training

Rich Hribar (@LordReebs on Twitter) of sharpfootballanalysis.com joins Mike Leone to talk about establish his edge in fantasy football:

-Rich's weekly "The Worksheet" column
-Finding micro edges as the fantasy industry becomes sharper as a whole
-The Konami Code QBs: Why running QBs break fantasy and how that may be changing in today's fantasy football landscape
-The importance of understanding player archetypes in all facets of fantasy - redraft, best ball, Dynasty, DFS, etc.

Joe Holka joins Mike Leone to talk FanDuel tournament strategy as well as how Joe broke into the fantasy sports industry. Among other things, the pair discuss:

-Pricing/Scoring Difference between FanDuel and DraftKings
-How do you go about stacking on FanDuel?
-Do you have to pay up at QB on FanDuel?
-How Joe broke into the industry
-The importance of consistency, quality, and intrinsic value
-Playing long-term games with good people

Make sure to check out Joe's content on his YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/joeholka

Mike Leone answers ETE listener questions on a variety of topics - from DFS to best ball to landscaping:

-When should we be stacking in DFS and how much?
-How do we adjust for the field getting smarter with leverage plays in tournaments?
-What's the opportunity cost of drafting a QB early in best ball?
-Why is it worth paying someone to mow your lawn?

Michael Leone is joined by Pat Kerrane of NBC Sports Edge and Anthony Amico of Establish the Run to mock draft a SuperFlex/TE premium rookie back, adjusting for what we now know five weeks into the NFL season. Among other topics, the trio discusses:

-Trevor Lawrence or Trey Lance as the top QB?
-Which skill player is best - Ja'Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, or Najee Harris?
-Is it time to give up on Zach Wilson?
-How high does Kadarius Toney rise?
-What to make of the SF RB situation

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Mike Leone goes solo this week, waxing philosophically over how we can apply Daniel Kahneman's new book, Noise, to NFL DFS. Mike outlines:

-why simple models beat human beings at prediction
-the danger of the "illusion of validity"
-how human judgement improves the information we feed the Establish the Run projections
-why we should trust those projections and not be variable or too active in tweaking our judgements on particular cases
-in other words: try to treat decisions based on player ceiling, projected value and field exposure, and correlation - no on how a player makes us feel
-getting outsized rewards for our patience in tournaments
-targeting slow starters with high ceilings like George Kittle and AJ Brown
-knowing when not to be patient and to adjust our priors quickly

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/
 

Mike Leone and Mark Dankenbring of Establish The Run discuss changes to the ETR staff top 150 rest of season. Conversation includes:

-Why Tyreek Hill is the WR1
-Should we be worried about Kamara, Zeke, and other early RBs
-Cooper Kupp's early season breakout
-Disappointing play calling in Cincinnati
-Being patient with Atlanta players
-How to handle young players going in different directions: Rondale Moore and Brandon Aiyuk

And so much more.

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch take a closer look at Week 13's NFL slate with GPPs in mind. They search for the best game environments for stacking and talk through some correlated plays.

Mike Leone and Ben Gretch dive into some of the more interesting Week 1 observations as far as team play calling and success and individual usage.

-Will ATL and TEN bounce back?
-Wheel's Up for Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb
-Is CIN low pass rate worrisome despite their success?
-Lot of optimism around the Chargers
-David Njoku, CLE TE1?
-Encouraging W1 usage for a handful of backs: Darrell Henderson, Najee Harris, Jonathan Taylor, and D'Andre Swift

You can check out Ben's work at bengretch.substack.com.

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Mike Leone is joined by Peter Overzet to talk about the concepts you should be applying when playing DFS small field tournaments:

-Common mistakes to avoid
-Thinking macro not micro
-Winning the low scoring slates
-Balancing ceiling and leverage
-Knowing your competitors
-Utilizing late swap

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Mike Leone is joined by Pat Kerrane of NBC Sports Edge to help you identify some potential breakout sleepers for fantasy this season, especially for keeper leagues. The duo discuss:

-Legendary RB Upside
-Profitability of Rookie WRs
-A Small Miss, Big Hit Philosophy
-Acting Fast on the Waiver Wire
-IR Stashes
-Specific Players Who Can Make Big Leaps

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Mike Leone's ETR Establish the Million cohost Drew Dinkmeyer joins the show to talk about dominating your home league. Unlike sharp leagues where our edge is primarily in roster construction, home leagues have a lot more potential edges - roster construction, waivers/trades, player evaluation, etc. With all of these potential avenues to get and edge on our opponents, how do we truly maximize our chances of winning?

More specifically, the two discuss:
-When to take players relative to ADP
-Understanding your league settings
-Do we prioritize and pull back from extreme strategies like Zero RB in home leagues?
-Do we prioritize or pull back from drafting elite onesies (QB/TE) in home leagues?
-Is QB streaming viable?
-What types of players should we take late in drafts
-How can we take advantage of fantasy game provider settings

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Shawn Siegele of RotoViz joins Mike Leone to talk about WR heavy drafting, or Zero RB, and specifically how to apply that to NFFC drafts. To do this, Mike and Shawn recap one of Mike's recent NFFC drafts from the 12-spot. The pair hit on:

-How/why does Zero RB work and what exactly is it
-Why you want 6 Top 15 WRs if possible
-Elite TEs are undervalued on NFFC
-When to take detours for RBs early
-Pushing your WR edge to the max
-Valuing breakout WRs over WRs with a higher base projection
-Rondale Moore's value
-What type of RBs to target in this roster construction
-Putting together a Late-Round QB plan that has upside

For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Make sure to read Shawn's article referenced in the podcast - Zero RB, AntiFragility, and the Myth of Value-Based Drafting: https://www.rotoviz.com/2013/11/zero-rb-antifragility-and-the-myth-of-value-based-drafting/

You can also catch Shawn on various RotoViz Podcasts, including:
-Stealing Bananas with Ben Gretch: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stealing-bananas/id1573819944
-RotoViz Overtime with Colm Kelly: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rotoviz-overtime/id1289057826

Anthony Amico joins Mike Leone on the Establish the Edge podcast to talk 2QB and SuperFlex redraft strategy:

-How early can/should you take your first QB?
-Why the number of flex spots matters
-Zero RB is enhanced in SuperFlex leagues
-The importance of being tethered to market value
-The Hero QB strategy
-Rookie QBs are the skeleton key to success in any format this season

Join the ETR team and gain instant access to all of Mike Leone's work, Anthony Amico's Dynasty content, and fantasy football’s premier playbook.
 
BUY NOW: $34.99 https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/

Mike Leone takes a look at the 2020 Best Ball Mania data to determine why extreme RB strategies were successful. Despite being seemingly at odds with one another, players that took RBs early but not a lot of them (HyperFragile) and players that took no RBs early but took a lot of them (Zero RB) were among the most profitable builds last season.

This podcast looks into what makes those strategies work on Underdog Fantasy and how we can potentially enjoy the best of both worlds. Mike delves into:
-HyperFragile builds maximize win rates when you make a good RB selection
-Zero RB builds maximize your likelihood of making a profitable early pick
-Both builds take advantage of WRs outscoring RBs at each point in the draft but in different ways
-There are archetypes of RBs that are better suited for Zero RB builds than HyperFragile builds and others we should be targeting no matter what

You can follow all of Mike's work at establishtherun.com, and you can find the full data on this topic in his article here: https://establishtherun.com/reverse-engineering-extreme-rb-strategies-on-underdog/

In Part 8 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the NFC East and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

More specifically, the pair dive into:
-CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper? What is Zeke's upside?
-Antonio Gibson's league winning upside
-Kenny Golladay is NOT this year's Stefon Diggs
-Is Miles Sanders undervalued or lacking meaningful upside regardless of price?

Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

In Part 7 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the NFC West and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

More specifically, the pair dive into:
-The value of Chase Edmonds and James Conner
-We shouldn't be concerned about the Seattle passing game
-The market is under reacting to Darrell Henderson
-The 49ers leading the NFL in scoring

Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

Adam Levitan, Justin Herzig, and Mike Leone review an ETR subscriber's Best Ball Puppy draft. The trio diagnose what went right. what went wrong, and teach viewers the best way to approach this tournament.

In this show we discuss:

-WR Thirsty Drafts
-Stacking
-Roster Construction
-Prioritizing Finishing Top 2 in League

Watch the full video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEIJScHButM&t=3s

NOTE: All ETR Draft Kit subscribers will get a free credit (up to $35) to use on Underdog Fantasy: https://underdogfantasy.com/?_branch_match_id=835499789598948157&utm_source=partner

For details, click here: https://establishtherun.com/how-to-claim-your-free-10-underdog-fantasy-credit/

Mike Leone and Adam Rauch take a closer look at Week 11's NFL slate with GPPs in mind. They search for the best game environments for stacking and talk through some correlated plays.

In Part 6 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the NFC North and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

More specifically, the pair dive into:
-Davante Adams and Aaron Jones profit potential if Rodgers return
-Ben mistaking a Rodgers Tweet about the Milwaukee Bucks as confirmation of his return to the Packers
-Is D'Andre Swift a RB dead zone exception?
-Adam Thielen - 5th round value or aging WR to avoid?
-Justin Fields' upside

Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

Pat Kerrane is welcomed back to the Establish the Edge podcast with open arms. Pat and host Mike Leone discuss two of Pat's excellent articles with NBC Sports Edge, their impact on our redraft strategy, and how the applications are a bit different between managed and best ball leagues.

More specifically the duo discuss:
-Ezekiel Elliott's unique distribution of potential outcomes and his value as a result
-Antonio Gibson's league winning upside
-The Cam Akers injury breaking live on air
-Rookie WRs putting up profitable seasons via efficiency
-Why the uncertainty around rookie WRs is important to target, especially in managed formats

Pat's Articles:
Early Round RBs Need Legendary Upside: https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/numbers/early-round-rbs-need-legendary-upside

Rookie WRs Are Winning Best Ball Leagues: https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/numbers/rookie-wrs-are-winning-best-ball-leagues

Mike Leone and Adam Levitan go over the differences between best ball leagues and managed leagues. On the surface there are two similar games, but as you dig deeper the differences between the two formats necessitate pretty dramatic shifts in strategy.


Timestamps:
How waivers changes draft approach (1:59) | 
How streaming changes draft approach (5:18) | 
Roster construction in Managed Leagues (7:15) | 
WRs in managed leagues vs Best Ball (9:58) | 
QBs in managed leagues vs. Best Ball (12:53) | 
Predicting explosion games in manage d league (15:54) | 
Is “best ball player” really a thing? (18:00) |