The presidential election in Turkey this spring is shaping up to be the most consequential in decades. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has led the country for twenty years, is facing the staunchest opposition in his career in the form of an unprecedented coalition of six parties, called the “Table of Six.” Their presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has been widely described as low-key, bland, and uncharismatic. But could he be the perfect person to unseat Erdogan? To get us up to speed on this exciting election, we speak with three Graduate Student Associates whose research takes us into the governance, politics, and culture of Turkey—past and present.
SZ sets the stage by invoking the typical raucous mood of Turkish elections through political songs that celebrate various social identities. Although Erdogan silenced the usual soundscape of elections this year by banning public music out of respect for earthquake victims, music nonetheless has emerged.
How does a leader go from being called a “democratizer” to a “strongman”? Andrew O’Donohue explains how Erdogan consolidated the power of the presidency and weakened government institutions during his twenty-year leadership. He notes there are some signs of weakening support for Erdogan, including recent defections from his party and public protests last year against the conviction of the mayor of Istanbul—and would-be presidential contender— for insulting public officials.
Voter polarization makes it difficult to predict the outcome of the elections, explains Ahmet Akbiyik, and his own research has shown the media landscape is equally polarized. He points out the pitfalls of government-friendly businesses owning powerful entities like television stations, newspapers, and even weapons manufacturing.
The scholars emphasize that Turkey holds a unique geopolitical position in central Asia, as it remains a top trading partner with Russia, but also supplies weapons to Ukraine. It’s also a member of NATO and has been seeking membership in the European Union, so any change of government will have an impact on all these factors.
If Erdogan loses, will he accept the outcome of the elections and let go of power? If he wins, will the elections be seen as fair? Will the one million citizens displaced by the earthquake be able to vote? The scholars debate how the public may respond to the election outcome, and whether or not a new regime can strengthen Turkey’s democracy.
Host:
Erin Goodman, Director, Weatherhead Scholars Program.
Guests:
Ahmet Akbiyik, Graduate Student Associate. PhD Candidate, Program in Political Economy and Government, Harvard Kennedy School.
Andrew O’Donohue, Graduate Student Associate. PhD Candidate, Department of Government, Harvard University.
SZ, Graduate Student Associate. PhD Candidate, Department of Music, Harvard University.
Producer/Director:
Michelle Nicholasen, Editor and Content Producer, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs.
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The songs featured in this podcast episode include "Hadi bakalım, kolay gelsin," “Bayraktar - Ukrainian War Song,” and “Müslüm Gürses.”
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This episode was produced, edited, and mixed by Michelle Nicholasen, Editor and Content Producer at the Weatherhead Center.
Follow the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs:
