Deterrence Down Under – Details, episodes & analysis

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Christine and Carl examine the accelerating pace of China’s military modernization and what it means for Australia, regional allies, and stability in the Indo‑Pacific. The discussion explores Beijing’s strategic objectives—particularly its anti‑access/area denial (A2AD) approach—and how these capabilities shape deterrence dynamics surrounding Taiwan and U.S. and allied forces operating in the region.

The conversation also highlights Australia’s evolving defense posture, including industrial cooperation with partners such as Germany, the growing importance of alliances, and the challenges posed by operating exquisite but finite military systems across vast distances. Drawing lessons from recent conflicts, the panel assesses how multi‑domain precision warfare, forward basing vulnerabilities, and alliance cohesion factor into deterring conflict in an increasingly contested strategic environment.

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China’s rapid nuclear expansion is reshaping global deterrence—and it’s happening faster than many realize. In this episode, Christine and Carl break down China’s evolving nuclear strategy, from new missile systems and submarine-launched capabilities to alarming tests near Lop Nur. They explore what a growing arsenal—potentially reaching the thousands by the 2030s—means for strategic stability, first‑strike dynamics, and regional security in Australia and the Indo‑Pacific. Essential listening for anyone concerned about the future of nuclear deterrence and global security.

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In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Christine and Carl engage with Frank Rose, a prominent figure in geopolitics and national security. The conversation delves into the complexities of missile defense, its historical context, and the evolving challenges posed by modern warfare, including the rise of drone technology. Frank emphasizes the importance of adapting missile defense strategies and technologies to meet future threats, particularly in the context of U.S. alliances and strategic competition with nations like China. The discussion also touches on the future of arms control and the necessity of integrating new technologies into defense strategies.

Frank Rose is President of Chevalier Strategic Advisors, a firm specializing in geopolitics and national security. He previously served as Principal Deputy Administrator of the US National Nuclear Security Administration, Assistant Secretary of State, a policy advisor in the Department of Defense, and as a professional staff member on the House Armed Services Committee. He has 30 years of experience working on missile defense issues at the Pentagon, the House Armed Services Committee, and the State Department.

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Carl and Christine explore how Australia can strengthen deterrence through air power—its challenges, strategic options, and evolving force structure. They’re joined by Chris McInnes, Executive Director of the Air Power Institute, to discuss the unique role of air power in securing Australia’s vast maritime environment and examine how emerging technologies like drones and long-range strike platforms might fit into the strategy.

Chris McInnes is Executive Director at the Air Power Institute. He is an air power and national security expert with 25 years of experience in the military, government, and industry and is also a frequent commentator and speaker at defence seminars here in Australia.

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In this episode, Carl and Christine examine the role of public debate in Australia’s defense and national security. They discuss alliances—especially Australia’s link to the US—recent Indo-Pacific developments, and the need to explain strategies like AUKUS to the public using Simon Sinek’s Start with Why approach. The episode highlights the importance of open discussion and a whole-of-nation approach in shaping policy.

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Carl and Christine discuss how Australia’s history influences its worldview, its alliances, and its approach to national security strategy. Over the past 80 years, Australia’s contributions to the U.S. alliance have weighed heavily on strategic thought. A new approach, focused on the maritime domain, is needed to effectively shape, deter, and respond to challenges in the Indo-Pacific region and maximise new capabilities from AUKUS.

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In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl, Christine, and Natalie are joined by Bob Peters to discuss the implications of the recent NATO summit for Australia, the concept of Golden Dome as a new missile defense strategy, and the evolving threats from global adversaries like China and Russia. The conversation also explores the role of AUKUS in enhancing missile defense capabilities, the importance of technological innovations, and the historical context of missile defense in relation to strategic stability.

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In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, the Carl, Christine, and Natalie discuss the complexities of extended nuclear deterrence in Australia, tracing its historical roots and examining the current strategic environment. They explore the evolution of Australia's nuclear policy, the changing threat landscape from 2012 to today, and the public perception of nuclear deterrence. The conversation also delves into the differences between nuclear strategy in the Pacific and Europe, and the future of deterrence, weighing the merits of nuclear weapons against missile defense systems.

Australia and the Bomb: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9781137477392

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In this conversation, Natalie and Siddhant Hira explore the role of irregular warfare within a broader deterrence strategy, particularly from an Indian perspective. They discuss the challenges of defining irregular warfare, the importance of national security strategies, and how these concepts relate to deterrence in the context of India-China relations. The dialogue also touches on the need for hybrid models of deterrence and the implications of nuclear strategy in modern warfare.

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In this solo podcast, Carl has thoughts on the recently released ASPI Cost of Defence report and the discussions in Canberra about its findings. He also shares some insights into who’s advocating for increased defence spending and what new capabilities Australia should be investing in.

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