Explore every episode of the podcast Deep Values: Value Investing Deep Dives
| Title | Pub. Date | Duration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guy Spier Made Zero Trades in Q3 With 49% in Berkshire | Investor Playbook | 10 Nov 2026 | 00:20:02 | |
Guy Spier's Q3 2026 13F shows not a single buy or sell across seven stocks worth $144.3M, with 49% in Berkshire Hathaway. Learn why deliberate inaction is one of the hardest disciplines in value investing when markets reward constant activity. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Quarter of Absolute Stillness (4:03) The Architect of Rational Restraint (6:26) Seven-Position Portfolio Architecture (9:12) Ultimate Behavioral Statement (9:53) Mechanics of Patience (10:56) Valuation Constraints on Financials (12:56) Decade of Cloning: Aquamarine vs S&P 500 (14:21) Volatility Reality: Anatomy of Extremes (15:01) Mechanics of Patience (18:00) Diagnostic Matrix: When Doing Nothing (18:38) Intelligent Value Investor Toolkit (19:20) Disclaimer (19:36) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #WarrenBuffett #ValueInvesting #Investing Original sources | |||
| Anthropic (ANT) — Bearish? Anthropic's $1.4T IPO: 1,206% Growth, No Margin of Safety | 10 Nov 2026 | 00:22:05 | |
Bearish on Anthropic (ANT) as of 2026-11-13: $1.4T Fully diluted. Anthropic's S-1 shows $33.2B in nine-month revenue, about 900% net retention and $900.9B in compute commitments, yet the IPO asks $1.4 trillion, roughly 17x run-rate sales. With the roadshow opening this week, we read the filing the way Graham would to test whether any margin of safety is left at $70 to $78 a share. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Anthropic IPO Valuation (1:17) Core Business Model (1:55) Enterprise Traction (2:38) Competitive Reality (3:18) Financial Reality (3:55) Competitive Reality (5:36) Financial Reality (8:00) Core Business Model (9:16) Capital Allocation (10:41) Convexity Risk (12:24) Share Structure (14:17) Reverse-Engineering Valuation (15:22) Mega-Cap Comparison (16:03) Reverse-Engineering Valuation (18:24) Price Zones Framework (19:27) Investor Verdict (20:26) Capital Allocation (21:07) Intelligent Value Apps (21:39) Get the apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #ValueInvesting #ANT #StockMarket | |||
| Eisman's $850B AI Bubble: 65% of the S&P 500 Exposed | 10 Nov 2026 | 00:17:32 | |
Steve Eisman shows how an $850 billion AI buildout now ties over 65% of the S&P 500 to two private companies, OpenAI and Anthropic. We test the hyperscalers' moats, free cash flow and debt so you can see what your index fund really owns. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Data Flow Capacity (4:02) End of Capital-Light Tech (5:23) Margin Collapse Risk (7:07) SaaS Apocalypse (9:57) Hidden Leverage & Circular Financing (10:55) Concentration Contagion (12:17) OpenAI Burn Rate (13:18) Mapping Future Scenarios (14:37) Takeaway for Investors (15:18) Defensive Reallocation (16:40) Intelligent Value Investor Tools (17:06) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #StockMarket #ValueInvesting #BuffettIndicator Original source | |||
| Baillie Gifford Made $29.5B on Tesla. Is It Overpaying Now? | Investor Playbook | 09 Nov 2026 | 00:19:45 | |
Baillie Gifford turned one early Tesla bet into a $29.5 billion gain, and today 45% of its $105.9 billion US portfolio sits in just ten names. We run those growth bets through Buffett-style value math to see whether the firm is spotting the future or overpaying for it. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Century of Unapologetic Growth (1:23) Top-Heavy Conviction Portfolio (5:27) Top 10 Portfolio Anchors (6:12) Net Selling of $7.79 Billion (9:53) Lam Research Addition Value X-Ray (12:39) Alnylam Pharma Doubling Down (14:00) Amazon Trimmed for $690M (16:03) 10-Year Volatility Reality Check (17:24) Deep Value Insights for Investors (18:52) 13F Filing Blind Spots (19:20) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #WarrenBuffett #ValueInvesting #Investing Original sources Amazon (AMZN) Stock Analysis & Intrinsic Value: Bearish | |||
| Data Centers Lost 40 of 41 Votes. Why Microsoft Rose | Investor Playbook | 09 Nov 2026 | 00:18:53 | |
Voters backed limits on data centers in 40 of 41 local ballot measures, and Texas, home to 25% of planned U.S. capacity, may freeze approvals. Learn why local permission is becoming AI's scarcest input, and how that red tape could quietly widen incumbents' moats. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Data Center Election Losses (4:59) Texas Bottleneck and Youth Vote (6:04) Evidence Assessment (9:28) Market Divergence and Moat (10:07) Buffett Lens: Business Quality (11:30) Buffett Lens: Capital Value (13:53) Investor Lesson on Regulation (17:56) Intelligent Value Investor App Suite (18:33) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #WarrenBuffett #ValueInvesting #Investing Original sources | |||
| NVIDIA (NVDA) — Nvidia's CEO and the Intelligence Leak Aimed at a $2T Moat | 09 Nov 2026 | 00:17:09 | |
Deep value research on NVIDIA (NVDA) as of 2026-11-13: $2T Value in the. We trace how a U.S. intelligence leak tying Jensen Huang to an alleged Chinese state-security recruit became a weapon in the fight over Nvidia's China chip exports. For value investors, the question now is how much extra margin of safety this policy risk demands. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Anatomy of a Leak (2:23) Intelligence Timeline (3:27) Anatomy of a Leak (6:46) Takeaway for Investors (8:06) Core Conflict: AI Supremacy (8:45) Intelligence Timeline (9:43) Core Conflict: AI Supremacy (11:45) Key Risks and Burden Shift (13:32) Takeaway for Investors (15:37) Apps for Intelligent Value (16:44) Get the apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #ValueInvesting #NVDA #StockMarket | |||
| Nvidia vs Microsoft: The Math of the $1.8T AI Meltdown | Stock Market | 09 Nov 2026 | 00:19:38 | |
Damodaran's cash-flow map shows why the AI suppliers generating the most cash lost the most when $1.8 trillion vanished in a single day. Now that the AI trade is splitting into four layers, where a company sits in the food chain decides its risk. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Deconstructing the AI Trade (1:35) Mapping AI Ecosystem Layers (3:58) Capital Expenditure to Revenue Flow (6:59) Market Cap Wealth Transfer (7:58) Deconstructing the AI Trade (10:44) Big Market Delusion (12:29) Valuation Fragility Case Study (18:40) Intelligent Value Investing Tools (19:13) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #StockMarket #ValueInvesting #BuffettIndicator Original source Deconstructing the AI Trade: Market Meltdown, Correction or Clean up? | |||
| Nvidia, Moutai, Micron: Duan on Why a 3x PE Can Be a Trap | Value Investing | 08 Nov 2026 | 00:18:20 | |
Duan Yongping's November 7 notes on Nvidia, Moutai and Micron reveal one framework: true moats leave a footprint in sustained gross margins, while cheap cyclicals hide a countdown clock. Learn why a stock at 3x earnings can be a trap, not a bargain, while memory-chip profits look their best. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Deep Value Intelligence (1:59) Anatomy of a Moat (2:40) Financial Footprint of a Moat (4:59) Key Risks Misinterpretation (6:18) Deep Value Allocation Matrix (11:12) Cyclical Exception (12:14) Payback Math (15:35) Deep Value Allocation Matrix (17:30) Intelligent Investor Tools (17:54) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #ValueInvesting #IntrinsicValue #Investing | |||
| Amazon's $215B AI Bet vs Apple's $9B: Who Earns It Back? | Stock Market | 08 Nov 2026 | 00:19:44 | |
We run the real numbers: Amazon's $215B in CapEx pushed its free cash flow to -$47B, while Apple kept $136B. Then we show why Alphabet's ~$200B build-out needs about $100B in new AI revenue just to earn a 15% return. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) The AI CapEx Reality Check (0:38) The Cash Flow Compression (LTM Data) (3:19) Business Models Diverge: Builders vS. (4:39) Apple's Infrastructure Optionality (5:20) The Pressure Cookers: Amazon & Alphabet (6:23) Clear Backlogs VS. Invisible ROIC (7:25) What Does 15% ROIC Actually Require? (9:30) Apple's Infrastructure Optionality (10:10) Is this 1999? Yes and No. (11:51) Servers Are Not Railroads (13:49) Where the Periphery Breaks (17:33) The Verdict: Watch the Numerator (18:53) DeepValues Resources (19:19) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #StockMarket #ValueInvesting #BuffettIndicator | |||
| Pabrai Put 60% in Turkey While Skipping the US AI Trade | Investor Playbook | 08 Nov 2026 | 00:20:39 | |
Mohnish Pabrai has more than 60% of his $1.5B portfolio in Turkey and nothing in the US AI trade. We unpack the Graham-style math behind that split, and why he sees a flat decade ahead for the S&P 500. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Global Arbitrage Playbook (1:15) Valuation Skew in Market (2:13) AI Capex Inflation Trap (2:57) Zero Return Forecast (3:54) AI Capex Inflation Trap (4:32) Overpriced Quality Returns (8:55) Turkey Contrarian Haven (11:16) Time Arbitrage Moat (12:34) Deep Value Math (13:16) 100x Return Mechanics (14:55) Structural Spin-Offs (19:39) Intelligent Investor Tools (20:13) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #WarrenBuffett #ValueInvesting #Investing Original source Mohnish Pabrai's Interview with CNBC TV18 on October 22, 2026 | |||
| Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) — Neutral? Berkshire Q3 2026: $22.1B Profit, Only $12.7B Is Real | 08 Nov 2026 | 00:16:16 | |
Neutral on Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) as of 2026-11-07: $9.4B paper gains stripped. Berkshire's $22.1 billion Q3 profit includes $9.4 billion of paper gains, so owner earnings were closer to $12.7 billion. The results came out today, and we look at what $9.6 billion of buybacks and $352 billion in cash and Treasuries say about how management allocates capital. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Thesis: Compounding in Plain Sight (1:36) Non-GAAP Reconciliation (2:54) Moat Diagnostic (3:54) Owner Earnings Proxy (4:32) Moat Diagnostic (10:14) Valuation: Margin of Safety (11:00) Inversion: Failure Modes (11:42) Footnote Ledger: Threats (13:47) Inversion: Failure Modes (14:46) Verdict & Intelligence Suite (15:57) Get the apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #ValueInvesting #BRKB #StockMarket Original sources | |||
| Yacktman at 84: $118.5M Sold, Only 1.5% Turnover | Investor Playbook | 08 Nov 2026 | 00:12:19 | |
Donald Yacktman, 84, sold a net $118.5 million in Q3 but changed only 1.5% of his $8.38 billion portfolio. We look at which of his 75 holdings moved and what his habit of doing almost nothing can teach patient investors today. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) DeepValues 13F Review (1:36) The Philosophy (2:58) A Fortress of Concentration (3:37) The Core Pillars (4:36) Q3 Capital Flows (6:16) Trade X-Ray: INTU Add (7:17) Trade X-Ray: STT Trim (8:16) 10-Year Reality Check (9:38) Proceed with Caution (10:42) Disclaimer (11:53) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #WarrenBuffett #ValueInvesting #Investing Original source | |||
| Steven Check Dumps $46.8M of Disney for Zoetis | Investor Playbook | 08 Nov 2026 | 00:13:14 | |
Steven Check sold all $46.8 million of his Disney stake at a -80.9% margin of safety and opened a Zoetis position at +14.2%. The Q3 filing just landed, and we walk through the valuation math so you can check it yourself. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) DeepValues 13F Review (3:59) Q3 Capital Allocation Moves (4:38) Disney Exit Analysis (7:03) Zoetis New Position (8:23) LKQ Rebalance (9:26) 10-Year Track Record (10:05) Analytical Limitations of 13F (10:42) Lessons for Investors (11:44) DeepValues App (12:48) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #WarrenBuffett #ValueInvesting #Investing Original sources Disney (DIS) Stock Analysis & Research · 4 reports EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001032814-26-000009 Zoetis (ZTS) Stock Analysis & Intrinsic Value: Neutral | |||
| Jack Bogle: From 12% Returns to a 4% Decade | Stock Market | 07 Nov 2026 | 00:21:04 | |
Jack Bogle's two-part return formula, tested over 25 years with a 0.81 correlation, points to about 4% a year for the next decade. After a 12% bull run that hid costly fund underperformance, here is how to read that math without trying to time the market. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) DeepValues Macro Notebook (2:59) The Graham Allocation Rule (4:01) The Speculative Drag (5:21) The Investment Reality (6:45) The Speculative Drag (10:50) The 4% Decade Synthesis (12:14) The Two Paths to 4% (13:49) The 4% Decade Synthesis (14:49) The Two Paths to 4% (15:38) The Graham Allocation Rule (16:18) The Speculative Drag (17:15) The Graham Allocation Rule (18:15) The Speculative Drag (20:00) Apps & Tools for Value Investors (20:39) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #StockMarket #ValueInvesting #BuffettIndicator Original source Jack Bogle: What Can Happen in an OVERVALUED Market - (John C. Bogle) | |||
| S&P 500 Up 11% While Its Average Stock Fell 27% | 07 Nov 2026 | 00:09:52 | |
The S&P 500 is up 11% this year, yet its average member suffered a 27% drawdown, and Nasdaq members nearly 49%. Learn why cap-weighted indexes now hide rolling bear markets, and why valuing each business on its own matters more than ever. • DeepValues app, a research team in your pocket: intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock, reports down to the footnotes • Is the market overvalued? The Buffett Indicator app Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) S&P 500 Surface Illusion (1:55) Whipsawing Breadth: Rapid Rotation (4:01) Sector Leadership Lacks Theme (4:42) Earnings Engine Defies Patterns (5:18) Small-Cap Quality Premium (6:59) Earnings Engine Defies Patterns (9:07) Tools for Intelligent Investors (9:27) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. #StockMarket #ValueInvesting #BuffettIndicator Original source What's the S&P 500 Signaling Under the Surface | Market Snapshot, November 2026 | |||
| Microsoft (MSFT) — Microsoft Drops Oracle Cloud: The $80B Rent Problem | 07 Nov 2026 | 00:18:14 | |
Deep value research on Microsoft (MSFT) as of 2026-11-10: $80B+ outside cloud. Microsoft is winding down its Oracle cloud deal and backing away from over $80 billion in rented AI capacity so it can own its data centers. We unpack what that reveals about AI capex, cash flow, and where a real margin of safety sits in tech. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Financial Dossier: H1 2024 (1:02) The AI Scramble Phase (1:41) Phasing Out Neoclouds (2:45) Microsoft's Capex Explosion (5:28) The Hardware Refresh Cycle (6:06) Phasing Out Neoclouds (6:47) The Hardware Arbitrage Strategy (8:53) Oracle's Free Cash Flow Pressure (10:28) The Big Picture Risks (11:47) The Prepaid Mitigation Strategy (13:11) The Hardware Arbitrage Strategy (14:13) The Prepaid Mitigation Strategy (15:12) Oracle's Free Cash Flow Pressure (16:18) The Hardware Refresh Cycle (17:21) Apps for Intelligent Value Investor (17:49) Get the apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) | |||
| Apple and Pop Mart: Why Duan Sold Calls, Not Shares | Investor Playbook | 06 Nov 2026 | 00:20:37 | |
Duan Yongping sold Apple calls without selling a single share, and paused his open-market buying of Pop Mart. See how a value investor acts when a great business gets pricey and the margin of safety shrinks. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Duan Yongping Investment Notebook (2:59) Apple Valuation Assessment (5:22) Apple Covered Calls Sold (8:02) Long-Term Investor Takeaways (9:02) Pop Mart Tactical Pause (9:59) Buyback Mechanics Explained (10:41) Tactical Ledger Matrix (12:00) Buyback Mechanics Explained (13:43) Long-Term Investor Takeaways (19:43) Intelligent Investor Resources (20:12) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — AMD's $13.4B Quarter: Why Owners Kept Only $31M | 06 Nov 2026 | 00:18:35 | |
Deep value research on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as of 2026-11-05: $31M true owner earnings. AMD booked $13.4 billion in Q3 revenue, but after a $3 billion inventory build and stock compensation, true owner earnings came to just $31 million. We walk through the cash bridge so you can see the gap that a $2.09 adjusted EPS leaves out. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) AMD Q3 2026 Thesis (1:02) Owner Earnings Bridge (6:25) Non-GAAP Diagnostic (8:04) Footnote Ledger Balance Sheet (8:23) Balance Sheet Resilience (9:24) Non-GAAP Diagnostic (10:08) AMD Q3 2026 Thesis (10:46) Moat Trajectory Matrix (11:25) Return on Capital Margins (13:44) Reverse DCF Margin of Safety (17:14) Verdict and Catalysts (17:38) DeepValues Resources (18:10) Get the apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) | |||
| AppLovin (APP) — Neutral? AppLovin's 66% Margin: Real Profit or Accounting Trick? | 06 Nov 2026 | 00:22:12 | |
Neutral on AppLovin (APP) as of 2026-11-05: 66% net income margin. AppLovin turned $2.18B of quarterly revenue into a 66% net margin, and we strip out stock pay and net-revenue accounting to find true owner earnings. With profit up 72% in Q3 2026, knowing what that margin really measures matters now. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) AppLovin: Flawless Engine (4:03) Footnote Ledger: Accounting (5:05) Moat Analysis: WIDENING (5:47) Return on Capital vs Cost (6:28) Q3 2026 Owner Earnings (8:12) Footnote Ledger: Risks (8:53) Non-GAAP Reconciliation (9:38) Q3 2026 Owner Earnings (10:59) Capital Allocation Scorecard (12:48) Footnote Ledger: Risks (14:27) Non-GAAP Reconciliation (15:08) Footnote Ledger: Accounting (15:49) Capital Allocation Scorecard (16:49) Valuation: Perfection Priced (17:51) Inverting the Problem (19:33) VERDICT: FAIRLY VALUED (20:34) Inverting the Problem (21:20) DeepValues: Investing Tools (21:47) Get the apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) | |||
| McDonald's (MCD) — McDonald's $3.8B Rent Machine vs. Slipping US Sales | 06 Nov 2026 | 00:22:15 | |
Deep value research on McDonald's (MCD) as of 2026-11-05: $3.8B franchise margins up. McDonald's makes most of its money as a landlord, and franchised margins rose 3% to $3.8 billion in Q3 2026. We test whether that rent engine can hold up while US same-store sales slip 0.2% and management leans on discounts to win back guests. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) McDonald's Q3 2026 Forensic Ledger (4:21) Non-GAAP Add-Backs Accelerating Drag (5:02) Moat Diagnostic Core Stability (8:15) Return on Capital Margins Leverage (8:58) Capital Allocation Candour Check (9:55) Footnote Ledger Restructuring Guarantees (11:50) Non-GAAP Add-Backs Accelerating Drag (13:09) Pre-Mortem Thesis Breakdown (14:13) Footnote Ledger Real Estate Leverage (15:14) Valuation Foundation Owner Earnings (18:40) DCF Scenarios Intrinsic Value Range (19:18) Pre-Mortem Thesis Breakdown (19:58) Final Verdict Fairly Valued (21:17) DeepValues Ecosystem Tools (21:50) Get the apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) | |||
| OpenAI Sought $30B, Found $11B: Anthropic Pulls Ahead | Stock Market | 06 Nov 2026 | 00:21:34 | |
OpenAI's push to raise $30 billion has only about $11 billion credibly committed so far, while Anthropic beat it on Q2 revenue and turned an operating profit. We run both companies through a Graham-Buffett lens to show why the market now wants cash returns instead of growth stories. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) AI Capital Shift Overview (2:22) OpenAI's Capital Freeze (4:22) Q2 Revenue Race (5:19) Navigating the AI Regime (7:20) Anthropic's Profit Volatility (12:37) Alphabet's Market Drop (13:17) Alphabet's Cash Burn (15:18) Railroad & Fiber Parallel (20:57) Value Investing Tools (21:08) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Lennar: Why a 19%-a-Year Investor Made It His Big Bet | 05 Nov 2026 | 00:17:32 | |
Edgar Wachenheim compounded about 19% a year for nearly three decades, and his Q3 2026 13F lists Lennar first. We unpack the margin-of-safety math behind the position and why a homebuilder fits a rule built to avoid permanent loss. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Q3 2026 Portfolio Deconstruction (0:39) Greenhaven Founding and Philosophy (3:16) Limits of the 13F Lens (6:17) Top Holdings Ledger (7:01) Post-Mortem Lessons for Investors (7:45) Stress Testing Lennar (12:59) 10-Year 13F Clone Track Record (14:23) Post-Mortem Lessons for Investors (16:27) Intelligent Value Investor Toolkit (17:06) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Chamath's AI Stack: Who Gets Paid From $700B Capex? | Stock Market | 05 Nov 2026 | 00:23:45 | |
Hyperscalers are estimated to pour over $700 billion into AI capex in 2026, yet owning a bottleneck does not guarantee owner earnings. We run Chamath's six-layer AI stack, from ASML to NVIDIA, through a Graham-Buffett lens to see where free cash flow and ROIC actually accrue. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Decoding AI Value (4:02) Deep Value Equation (5:20) Infrastructure Chokepoints (8:44) Macro Risk Capital Destruction (10:10) Chips System-Level Moat (11:30) Models Commoditization (13:10) Jevons Paradox of Intelligence (14:09) Execution Kubernetes of Intelligence (16:28) Data Divergence of Value (17:50) Physical AI Actuation Thesis (19:34) Jevons Paradox of Intelligence (22:35) Execution Kubernetes of Intelligence (23:20) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies | |||
| Iron Mountain (IREN) — Neutral? IREN's $9.7B Microsoft Deal: Delay or Thesis Break? | 05 Nov 2026 | 00:22:38 | |
Neutral on Iron Mountain (IREN) as of 2026-11-09: $9.7B Microsoft contract. Microsoft's $4.8B capex shortfall, blamed on delayed third-party capacity, set off a panic in IREN stock. We use finance-lease accounting and aerial evidence from IREN's Texas campus to tell a timing slip apart from a broken thesis. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) Deep Value Event-Driven Analysis (4:07) Ground-Level Evidence on Delivery Risk (5:11) Economic Stakes of Delay (6:54) Contract Mechanics and Grace Periods (8:15) Reliability Paradox and Validation (8:53) NVIDIA Factor: Conditional Equity (9:49) Legacy vs New IREN Infrastructure (11:10) Macro Risk: Microsoft's Pivot (12:32) Legacy vs New IREN Infrastructure (15:10) NVIDIA Factor: Conditional Equity (17:56) Scenario Mapping: Risk Evaluation (21:13) Deep Value Takeaway (21:52) Intelligent Value Investor Apps (22:13) Get the apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) | |||
| AI Wants 1 Gigawatt Per Building. The Grid Can't Deliver | Stock Market | 05 Nov 2026 | 00:25:09 | |
A single AI data center can draw as much power as San Francisco, and the grid can't carry it, so builders are putting power plants on site. We unpack the physics and the trillion-dollar debt cycle behind it, because that is where the hidden risk sits now. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Buffett Indicator & Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE Android (Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE) Chapters (0:00) The AI Boom Mechanics (4:35) Physical World Friction (5:35) Behind-The-Meter Generation (6:35) Physical World Friction (7:46) AI Race Enters Physical World (8:25) Physical World Friction (9:46) Permanent Compute Shortage (11:05) Solving Contract Mismatch (12:42) Private-Sector Leverage Cycle (14:58) Tokenization Economics (19:18) Permanent Compute Shortage (20:16) AI Race Enters Physical World (22:39) Permanent Compute Shortage (24:22) DeepValues App (24:44) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Open-source research on 300+ companies | |||
| Alphabet (GOOG) — Neutral? Alphabet's $200B AI Moat vs. Its Free Cash Flow | 05 Nov 2026 | 00:19:40 | |
Neutral on Alphabet (GOOG) as of 2026-11-08: $200B Yearly AI build-out. Gemini 4 Carbon retook AI's #1 spot and Google Cloud revenue grew 103%, but the spending behind both is eating into free cash flow. We use a Graham-Dodd lens to ask whether a lead that must be rebuilt every few weeks still leaves owners a margin of safety. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone · Android Chapters (0:00) Alphabet's AI CapEx Dilemma (1:59) Gemini 4 Carbon Leadership (2:56) Cybersecurity and Long-Context Durability (3:59) Frontier Model Diagnostic Matrix (6:43) Fairwind Release Strategy (7:23) Cloud Engine Growth and Backlog (9:27) CapEx Furnace Expansion (12:19) Alphabet's AI CapEx Dilemma (13:40) Personality Shift in AI Models (14:40) Unit Economics of AI Models (15:44) Long-Term Value Risks (17:17) DeepValues Takeaway (18:54) Intelligent Investor Mobile Apps (19:15) Get the apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE | |||
| Turbopuffer: $100M ARR With 50 People While AI Burns Cash | 05 Nov 2026 | 00:22:23 | |
Turbopuffer reached $100M in ARR with about 50 people by cutting customers' search costs 95% and growing on customer cash instead of mega-rounds. In a 2026 market minting more than one unicorn a day, we use a Graham-Buffett lens to test whether that moat is real. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone · Android Chapters (0:00) The Sane Asylum (3:04) True Margin of Safety (4:05) Hyper-Efficiency by the Numbers (6:49) Talent Density Moat (8:13) Extreme Customer Obsession (9:46) Capital Allocation & Cap Table (16:52) True Margin of Safety (17:57) Talent Density Moat (18:36) Extreme Customer Obsession (19:40) True Margin of Safety (21:58) Get the apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE | |||
| McDonald's (MCD) — McDonald's Priced for 9.5% Growth Forever. Comps Grew 1.5% | 05 Nov 2026 | 00:20:22 | |
Deep value research on McDonald's (MCD) as of 2026-11-04: 9.5% Implied perpetual. McDonald's owns the land under its restaurants, yet U.S. traffic is softening while its price implies 9.5% growth forever. We trace owner earnings to show why that gap leaves little margin of safety. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone · Android Chapters (0:00) McDonald's Q3 2026 Earnings Review (1:01) Footnote Ledger (2:40) Capital Allocation (6:19) Bridge to Owner Earnings (7:37) Capital Allocation (9:22) Return on Capital (10:43) Non-GAAP Add-Backs (12:46) Balance Sheet Reality Check (14:34) Return on Capital (15:56) Moat Assessment (17:16) McDonald's Q3 2026 Earnings Review (19:38) Resources for Investors (19:56) Get the apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies | |||
| Dan Bin Cuts AMD 64%, Bets $91M on Apple | Investor Playbook | 04 Nov 2026 | 00:19:01 | |
Dan Bin, China's best-known Buffett disciple, cut AMD by 64% and opened a $91M Apple stake in Q3 2026. We test whether his $1.47B, AI-heavy US portfolio still leaves any margin of safety. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone · Android Chapters (0:00) Value Ledger Overview (3:59) Portfolio X-Ray Analysis (4:38) Top 10 Holdings Ledger (5:39) Transaction Ledger Summary (7:17) AAPL Ecosystem Investment (7:57) Marvell Liquidation Diagnostic (10:44) AMD Trimmed Diagnostic (12:07) AAPL Ecosystem Investment (14:51) 13F Clone Performance (15:48) 13F Iceberg Blind Spots (16:27) Lessons for Patient Investors (18:13) DeepValues Toolkit (18:36) Get the apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Tweedy Browne's Q3 13F: Why 45% Sits in Just 10 Stocks | Investor Playbook | 04 Nov 2026 | 00:18:49 | |
Tweedy Browne's new Q3 2026 13F puts 45% of the portfolio in just ten holdings. Learn the five-point Graham checklist behind those picks, used since the firm started in 1920 as Wall Street's buyer of last resort. • Free DeepValues app, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: iPhone · Android Chapters (0:00) Deconstructing Tweedy Browne (0:46) Graham Buffett Checklist (1:06) Deconstructing Tweedy Browne (2:45) Graham Buffett Checklist (9:45) Deconstructing Tweedy Browne (11:06) Strategic Synthesis (12:54) Graham Buffett Checklist (13:57) Deconstructing Tweedy Browne (15:18) Structural Blind Spots (18:23) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API and MCP server for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| United Airlines (UAL) — United Airlines' $80B Plane Bet With No Passengers in Sight | 02 Nov 2026 | 00:22:50 | |
Deep value research on United Airlines (UAL) as of 2026-11-05: $80B list-price plane order. With revenue near zero in 2020, Scott Kirby placed the largest aircraft order in aviation history. We run that bet through a Graham-Buffett lens to test whether a century-old capital destroyer can finally compound. Chapters (0:00) Confidential Blueprint (1:20) Asymmetric COVID Bet (4:09) 30-Year Horizon (5:14) Tech Stack Advantage (10:21) Route Discipline (11:20) Hub Engine Economics (13:27) Credit Card Illusion (15:50) Fleet and Financials (16:51) Collapse of LCCs (17:32) ATC Bottlenecks (18:52) 30-Year Horizon (20:39) DeepValues App (21:22) 30-Year Horizon (22:31) Get the free apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Musk: Saving Is Pointless. 72 Hours Later, Grok Bleeds Cash | Stock Market | 02 Nov 2026 | 00:20:42 | |
Musk called saving pointless, then admitted 72 hours later that serving Grok cost too much. See why $38 billion data centers make cash flow and moats the real test of the AI abundance story. Chapters (0:00) The Abundance Paradox (3:39) Collapsing Cost of Intelligence (5:01) Two Realities of AI (6:01) Grok Bot Unit Economics (7:25) Capex Bottleneck Reality (8:07) Grok Bot Unit Economics (8:48) Capex Bottleneck Reality (12:16) Scarcity Divide Explained (13:14) Bumpy Transition Risks (14:19) Value Shift for Investors (16:04) Intelligent Value Investor Apps (20:16) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts | |||
| Utilities vs Nvidia: Why $5B of AI Chips Can Sit Unplugged | Stock Market | 02 Nov 2026 | 00:21:17 | |
See why AI's bottleneck moved from chips to power, land and grid access. With 438 GW of requests queued in Texas alone, who owns those scarce assets matters more than who buys the GPUs. Chapters (0:00) Power Is the New Compute (1:01) The Bottleneck Has Moved Upstream (1:43) Collision of Constraints in Texas (2:21) AI Physical-Economy Value Ladder (4:23) The Bottleneck Has Moved Upstream (5:28) Landlords and Equipment Optionality (6:47) Collision of Constraints in Texas (8:09) AI Physical-Economy Value Ladder (9:28) Operating Generation Valuation (10:45) Converters Arbitrage Gap (11:59) Operating Generation Valuation (13:00) AI Physical-Economy Value Ladder (13:37) Converters Arbitrage Gap (14:58) Capital Gravity: Builder Wins (16:00) Bear Case: Losing Money in AI Boom (17:19) Landlords and Equipment Optionality (18:19) Converters Arbitrage Gap (18:59) Operating Generation Valuation (20:22) DeepValues Toolkit (20:52) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Don't Live to 93: The Asset 90-Year-Olds Say You Misprice | Value Investing | 01 Nov 2026 | 00:22:08 | |
Why a 97-year-old says he would rot without a task, and what people past 90 regret overpaying for. Time is the one asset you can't buy back, and you are pricing it today. Chapters (0:00) The Ultimate Long-Term Hold (2:58) Investment Verdict on Human Capital (3:57) The Ultimate Long-Term Hold (5:01) Daily Operating Engine (5:41) Attitude as an Economic Moat (6:41) Key Operational Metrics (8:03) Hidden Opportunity Cost (8:45) Investment Verdict on Human Capital (10:07) Attitude as an Economic Moat (19:35) DeepValues Investor Toolkit (20:34) Investment Verdict on Human Capital (21:15) DeepValues Investor Toolkit (21:42) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts | |||
| Apple (AAPL) — Bearish? Apple's 12.6% Problem: Why Money Is Moving to Google and PDD | 01 Nov 2026 | 00:21:10 | |
Bearish on Apple (AAPL) as of 2026-11-04: 12.6% yearly profit growth. See why a legendary value investor is trimming Apple to fund Google and PDD, and how to test any great business against its price. With Treasuries at 5.2%, a $5 trillion Apple needs 12.6% annual profit growth just to match bonds. Chapters (0:00) Deep Value Research Note (1:55) Apple Valuation Decline (3:58) Apple to Google Shift (5:58) Google CapEx Panic (10:57) PDD Bear Case Margin (13:34) Emotional Value Moat (14:53) AI Risk Dilemma (20:03) Intelligent Investor Apps (20:44) Get the free apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts | |||
| Anthropic's $80B Six-Month Loss vs Google's $500B Wipeout | Stock Market | 31 Oct 2026 | 00:17:59 | |
See how Graham and Buffett would judge Anthropic's $80 billion six-month loss and Google's $500 billion wipeout. With Anthropic's S-1 filing out and AI spending soaring, the margin of safety question can't wait. Chapters (0:00) AI Capital Cycle Analysis (1:40) Financial Reality of 2026 (2:23) AI Paradox Bull Bear Case (4:07) AI Capital Cycle Analysis (4:47) AI Paradox Bull Bear Case (5:48) Financial Reality of 2026 (6:29) Capital Allocation Repricing (8:12) AI Paradox Bull Bear Case (11:45) Takeaway for Long-Term Investors (16:57) Apps for Intelligent Value Investor (17:34) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts | |||
| Benner Cycle Says Sell in 2026: Is 1875 Pig-Iron Math Right? | Stock Market | 30 Oct 2026 | 00:22:24 | |
The viral 1875 chart marks 2026 as a sell year, yet its sell dates are just a repeating 9-10-8 year loop. See what its record really shows, and why price versus value matters more than any calendar. Chapters (0:00) Introduction to the Benner Cycle (1:23) The Arithmetic Engine Explained (2:40) Demystifying the Internal Math (5:21) Agricultural Boom-Bust Flywheel (8:25) Evidence of Famous Market Hits (10:08) Evidence of Glaring Misses (11:46) The Illusion of Accuracy (13:49) The 2026 Market Question (15:10) Intelligent Investor's Playbook (20:39) Deep Value Verdict (21:45) Tools for Intelligent Investors (21:58) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts Disclaimer: educational and research content only. Not investment advice. Based on public sources that may be revised or interpreted differently. Do your own due diligence. | |||
| Intel (INTC) — Bearish? Intel at $95, Base Value $20? SanDisk Has No Safety Margin | 30 Oct 2026 | 00:22:35 | |
Bearish on Intel (INTC) as of 2026-11-20: -372% Intel margin of safety. Intel trades at $95.53, but our base intrinsic value estimate is $20.24. That gap means the market price assumes 36.2% annual owner-earnings growth for five years. SanDisk is the opposite case: it trades close to fair value, but only if today's NAND margins hold up through the cycle. Here is why neither one offers a margin of safety right now. Chapters (0:00) Investment Committee Review (0:39) Two Tier-C Assets (3:06) Intel Verdict: Avoid (3:26) Strong Q3, Weak Q4 Guide (10:21) Intel Valuation vs Price (11:24) The Normalization Bridge (12:45) Intel Valuation vs Price (14:00) Intel Verdict: Avoid (14:59) SanDisk Verdict: Watch (15:41) SanDisk Valuation Range (16:43) Reverse DCF: Peak Risk (19:46) SanDisk Verdict: Watch (20:24) Tier-C Diagnostic Matrix (21:20) The Deep Value Takeaway (21:58) Apps and Resources (22:09) Get the free apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Roblox (RBLX) — Neutral? Roblox's $1.35B Free Cash Flow Illusion: 83% Goes to SBC | 30 Oct 2026 | 00:19:44 | |
Neutral on Roblox (RBLX) as of 2026-11-19: 83% FCF lost to SBC. Roblox reported $1.35B of free cash flow in FY2025 and a $1.07B GAAP net loss in the same year. Subtract the $1.13B of stock-based compensation and only $224M is left, so we look at what that means for owner earnings before today's Q3 2026 numbers come out. Chapters (0:00) Roblox Deep Value Research Overview (2:16) The Creator-User Network Moat (3:33) Platform Growth vs Owner Earnings (4:35) Big Cash Flows, GAAP Losses (5:58) Upfront Prepayments Inflate Cash Flow (8:38) SBC Erases Free Cash Flow (12:20) Verdict: Watch Pending Q3 Earnings (13:20) Platform Potential vs Dilution Risk (15:47) Verdict: Watch Pending Q3 Earnings (18:43) Investor Tools and Disclaimer (19:19) Get the free apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Amazon (company) (AMZN) — Neutral? Amazon Worth $25 or $200? The $220B Capex Paradox | 30 Oct 2026 | 00:21:03 | |
Neutral on Amazon (company) (AMZN) as of 2026-11-18: -$42.4B TTM free cash flow. Amazon brought in $168.3B of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, yet reported free cash flow was -$42.4B. Here's how one call, whether AI capex counts as maintenance or growth, moves the estimated intrinsic value from $25.68 to about $199.53, and which return metric to track from here. Chapters (0:00) Amazon Q3 2026 Capex Paradox (0:58) The Engine at Q3 2026 Scale (1:58) The Cash Flow Reality (5:25) Lens One: The Greenwald DCF (8:48) Two Lenses, One Accounting Debate (9:26) Lens Two: The SOTP Cross-Check (10:53) The Margin of Safety Synthesis (11:12) The AWS Infrastructure Moat (12:19) Weighing Bull and Bear Realities (13:18) Capital Allocation and Reinvestment (17:22) The Margin of Safety Synthesis (17:41) Watch: The Core Takeaway (20:05) Tools for Value Investors (20:44) Get the free apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Alphabet (GOOGL) — Neutral? Alphabet Made $42B in Cash and Still Burned $9.1B | 29 Oct 2026 | 00:19:06 | |
Neutral on Alphabet (GOOGL) as of 2026-11-17: -$9.1B Q3 free cash flow. Alphabet generated $42.3B of operating cash in Q3 2026, spent $51.4B on AI capex, stopped buybacks and took on $29B of new debt. We compare its owner earnings, balance sheet and cloud growth with Microsoft and Meta to see whether this AI build can earn its cost of capital. Chapters (0:00) The AI Capital Regime Change (1:03) GAAP EPS vs Operating Reality (3:00) The DeepValues Benchmark (4:25) Spectacular Growth, Spectacular Burn (5:22) The Free Cash Flow Crossover (6:44) The DeepValues Benchmark (7:24) Microsoft Self-Funds, Alphabet Burns (8:06) From Buybacks to Stock and Debt (10:09) The Margin of Safety (10:50) Contracted Demand and Liabilities (11:47) Defending the Moat, Selling Pickaxes (13:12) Google Cloud Catches Azure (13:33) Defending the Moat, Selling Pickaxes (13:54) Three AI Business Models (14:57) Contracted Demand and Liabilities (15:35) Google Cloud Catches Azure (15:57) Unproven ROI and Dilution Risk (16:39) The North Star Metric (18:19) Apps for Value Investors (18:40) Get the free apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Microsoft (MSFT) — Neutral? Microsoft's AI Capex Just Cut Free Cash Flow 70% | 29 Oct 2026 | 00:22:52 | |
Neutral on Microsoft (MSFT) as of 2026-11-16: -70% FCF collapse. Microsoft spent 49% of its quarterly revenue on AI data centers, and free cash flow fell 70%. We work out its owner earnings, run a Graham-Buffett DCF and show why a Tier A business can still fail the price test. Chapters (0:00) Microsoft Classification and Stance (1:00) The Thesis: Quality vs Price (2:06) Business Model and Monetization (2:26) Economic Moat and Peer Benchmarks (3:29) Business Model and Monetization (4:37) Catalysts vs Downside Risks (5:22) The Capex Divergence (7:43) A Decade of Compounding (8:20) The Capex Divergence (9:37) Valuation: Two-Stage DCF Range (9:58) Catalysts vs Downside Risks (11:23) The Thesis: Quality vs Price (12:22) Capital Allocation: Buffett $1 Test (14:28) Valuation: Two-Stage DCF Range (16:49) Margin of Safety and Reverse DCF (18:34) The Thesis: Quality vs Price (19:38) Economic Moat and Peer Benchmarks (20:15) Four-Gate Institutional Verdict (21:19) The Capex Divergence (21:59) Tools for Value Investors (22:27) Get the free apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Alphabet (GOOGL) — Neutral? Alphabet's $205B Bet Turns Google Into an AI Utility | 28 Oct 2026 | 00:22:18 | |
Neutral on Alphabet (GOOGL) as of 2026-11-15: $205B FY2026 capex. Google Cloud is growing 81.8% a year, but a $205B capex program pushed Alphabet's Q2 free cash flow below zero, and its $9.11 headline EPS falls to $2.85 once paper gains are stripped out. We look at owner earnings, the depreciation flag and a reverse DCF to see how $320.58 compares with our estimated intrinsic-value range. Chapters (0:00) Alphabet Deep Value Snapshot (1:38) Thesis: Asset-Light to Asset-Heavy (2:19) How Alphabet Makes Money (3:00) Competitive Position and Wide Moat (5:28) Financial X-Ray: Returns vs Capex (6:10) Forensic Adjustments and Owner Earnings (8:30) Financial X-Ray: Returns vs Capex (9:53) Capital Allocation Report Card (10:55) Forensic Adjustments and Owner Earnings (13:02) Core Debate: Cloud vs FCF (14:41) Pre-Mortem: Structural Risks (16:46) Reverse DCF and Margin of Safety (17:45) Valuation Scenarios (18:24) Reverse DCF and Margin of Safety (19:23) Final Verdict and Stance (21:27) DeepValues Apps and Resources (21:53) Get the free apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Anthropic IPO: $1.48T Value vs a $2T Price Tag | 28 Oct 2026 | 00:19:25 | |
We take apart Anthropic's 416-page IPO prospectus with Damodaran's valuation: revenue up 1,400%, but $473B in compute commitments that work like debt, a BB+ rating and a five-class share structure. His optimistic base case puts intrinsic value at about $1.48T, while expected IPO pricing of $1.5T to $2T leaves no margin of safety. Chapters (0:00) Anthropic's IPO: A Deep Value X-Ray (0:46) Great Technology Isn't Great Investment (2:05) Business Model and Competitive Position (2:52) Revenue: The Boom and the Brakes (5:52) Profitability: The Operating Leverage Trap (6:53) The Intrinsic Value Engine (7:34) Profitability: The Operating Leverage Trap (8:12) Capital Allocation and Hidden Debt (9:35) Three Existential Risks (11:18) The Governance Dealbreaker (14:36) The Intrinsic Value Engine (14:56) Business Model and Competitive Position (15:17) The Intrinsic Value Engine (15:37) Valuation and Margin of Safety (16:15) Bull vs Bear Scenarios (16:55) The Verdict for Long-Term Investors (18:34) Apps for Intelligent Value Investors (19:00) Get the free apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE | |||
| Fed Pauses at 4%, But Two Governors Wanted More Hikes | 28 Oct 2026 | 00:21:21 | |
The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00%, but two governors dissented and voted for another hike, and Chair Warsh says conditions still aren't tight. Here is what that 10-2 split means for discount rates, margin of safety and companies with heavy debt. Chapters (0:00) FOMC Rate Pause Big Picture (2:21) Target Rate and 10-2 Vote (3:45) Strong Economy, Stubborn Inflation (4:25) Key Risks: The Bear Case (5:04) Strong Economy, Stubborn Inflation (9:07) The Warsh Playbook (12:25) Financial Conditions Spectrum (13:10) The Warsh Playbook (14:11) Strong Economy, Stubborn Inflation (14:52) Financial Conditions Spectrum (15:50) Key Risks: The Bear Case (18:15) Takeaway for Long-Term Investors (20:25) The DeepValues Ecosystem (21:02) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts | |||
| Anthropic's $2T IPO Red Flags, and Where AV Value Hides | Stock Market | 28 Oct 2026 | 00:23:41 | |
We read Anthropic's S-1 with a Graham-Dodd lens: a 3,300% headline growth rate, a growth slowdown in Q3, more than $800B in compute commitments and a single share that gives seven founders control. Then we look at where autonomous-vehicle economics look most durable, at least under the episode's assumptions. Chapters (0:00) A Deep Value Lens on AI and AVs (1:05) Generative Euphoria vs Physical AI (2:09) Diagnosing the Anthropic S-1 Headlines (3:12) The Token Maxing Illusion (6:09) Moat, Governance and Macro Risks (8:15) Diagnosing the Anthropic S-1 Headlines (9:38) The Iceberg of Capital Commitments (10:39) Moat, Governance and Macro Risks (13:23) Value Verdict: A Speculative Venture Bet (14:41) AV Safety Value vs Headwinds (15:38) The AV Competitive Matrix (17:21) Geopolitics and the Moat of Geography (17:40) AV Safety Value vs Headwinds (18:22) The Picks and Shovels Strategy (20:46) Value Verdict: A Speculative Venture Bet (21:46) The Picks and Shovels Strategy (22:26) Apps for the Intelligent Value Investor (23:16) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Robinhood Markets (HOOD) — Bearish? Robinhood Made $2.25B in Cash. Why Is It Still Overvalued? | 28 Oct 2026 | 00:23:53 | |
Bearish on Robinhood Markets (HOOD) as of 2026-11-11: -28% Margin of safety. We audit Robinhood's Q3 2026 numbers: $2.25B in free cash flow, a 46% operating margin, zero debt, and the share dilution behind the buybacks. Then we show why a 42.8x P/E and a 17.8% implied growth rate put today's price above our estimated intrinsic-value range. Chapters (0:00) Robinhood Q3 2026 Dossier (0:38) Business Reality vs Price Reality (1:56) Revenue Mix and Funded Customers (4:37) Fortress Balance Sheet and Cash (5:16) Revenue Growth and Operating Leverage (5:54) Narrow but Widening Moat (8:11) Fortress Balance Sheet and Cash (8:32) Key Risks Pre-Mortem (10:29) Capital Allocation and Dilution (13:34) The Standards Scorecard (14:11) Bull Case vs Bear Case (17:55) Valuation Scenarios and Reverse DCF (19:53) Margin of Safety and Value Zones (20:13) Verdict and What Would Change It (20:34) Margin of Safety and Value Zones (21:17) Verdict and What Would Change It (23:02) Disclaimer (23:28) Get the free apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Anthropic S-1: 85% Margins, $600B in Commitments | 27 Oct 2026 | 00:23:34 | |
We run Anthropic's leaked S-1 numbers through a Graham-Dodd lens: 85% inference margins, $100B+ in cash and $500-600B in compute commitments. Then we look at what a trillion-dollar AI valuation leaves for a patient investor's margin of safety before the IPO. Chapters (0:00) Anthropic Deep Value Research (1:59) The Capital-Efficient Compounder (2:37) Selling a Dollar for Ten Cents (3:33) The Capital-Efficient Compounder (3:53) Unprecedented Operating Leverage (4:35) The Multi-Chip Moat (6:39) Anthropic vs. the Field (6:59) Unprecedented Operating Leverage (7:39) Unit Economics and Customer Concentration (11:50) Funding the Infrastructure Roadmap (14:33) Key Risks and Margin of Safety (15:12) The Mathematical Path to $1 Trillion (16:13) Key Risks and Margin of Safety (18:32) Anthropic vs. the Field (19:35) The Verdict: Paving the Parking Lot (20:17) The Mathematical Path to $1 Trillion (21:25) The Verdict: Paving the Parking Lot (22:51) Tools for Value Investors (23:08) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||
| Alibaba's 7x Growth Target Had a Hidden Human Cost | Money & Retirement | 27 Oct 2026 | 00:14:37 | |
A former Alibaba executive was told to multiply her forecast by seven, and her team hit it. Learn what that hyper-growth era cost her health and her family, and why value investors should audit their own human capital as carefully as a balance sheet. Chapters (0:00) The Economics of Hyper-Growth (0:55) Thesis: Growth's Unfunded Liabilities (2:39) The Scaling Engine (5:21) By the Numbers: The Bull Run (6:39) The Bear Case: Human Capital (7:41) Pivot to Intrinsic Value (10:03) The Cortisol Tax (11:43) Pivot to Intrinsic Value (12:06) Why Tech Frameworks Fail (13:03) The Ultimate Asset Class (13:25) Apps and Resources (14:11) Get the free apps DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. Podcast (Deep Values): Spotify · Apple Podcasts | |||
| PayPal (PYPL) — Bullish? PayPal at 9.3x Earnings: Value Trap or Cash Machine? | 27 Oct 2026 | 00:16:34 | |
Bullish on PayPal (PYPL) as of 2026-11-08: $6.58B Free cash flow TTM. We put PayPal's $6.58B in free cash flow, its 31% share retirement and three DCF scenarios side by side to see whether a 9.3x P/E is a value trap or a real margin of safety. Revenue is growing only 2% and Apple Pay is squeezing checkout, so the cash numbers tell you more than the story the market is telling. Chapters (0:00) PayPal Deep Value Teardown (0:43) The Investment Thesis (1:46) Business Model and Monetization (4:44) Moat and Competitive Threats (5:50) Key Financials TTM Q3 2026 (6:55) Bull vs Bear Case and Risks (7:15) Key Financials TTM Q3 2026 (10:33) Bull vs Bear Case and Risks (11:12) Capital Allocation and Buybacks (13:25) The Deep Value Scorecard (14:07) Valuation and Margin of Safety (14:50) Verdict: Undervalued (15:53) Resources for Value Investors (16:08) Get the free apps Full open-source research report DeepValues toolkit • Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free • Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed) • DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock • Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS) • The same market gauge on Android, Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE • Open-source research on 300+ companies • Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst • Developer API for your AI agents Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate. | |||