Talking NCAA Division 3 basketball from a data/analytics angle. Each episode we'll talk about efficiency ratings, Top 25, NCAA regional rankings, NCAA Tournament projections, and we'll make picks against the computer lines and point spreads. Hosted by Matt and Zac Snyder.
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Wrapping up the Season with the Final Four - D3 Datacast - Episode 113
Monday, March 24, 2025 • Duration 58:59
We are back from Fort Wayne, Indiana and what a weekend it was! Congratulations to the Trinity (CT) Bantams for winning the 2024-2025 NCAA Division III Men’s Basketball Championship and to NYU, Wesleyan and WashU for a great Final Four weekend.This past weekend saw three great games played between four tremendous teams. Join us for this last show of the season for some final words on what took place in Fort Wayne and thanks and recognition for some of the key people who helped make it happen.We close out with a look back at how we did in our various silly little games and pick ‘em contests and open up the mailbag one last time for this season as we hear from our great viewers.Related Episodes:2025 Final Four Picks! - Episode 112: https://youtu.be/qomFKR84W8kTrinity WINS in the National Semifinal: https://youtu.be/FDTfReaO9AENYU Takes Down Washington U. to Head to the National Championship Game: https://youtu.be/FDTfReaO9AERelated Links:Efficiency Ratings: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/Daily Score Predictions: https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/score-predictions/NPI Rankings: https://d3datacast.com/npi/Show Links:▶ Website: https://d3datacast.com/▶ Subscribe to the channel: https://www.youtube.com/@d3datacast▶ Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/d3datacast▶ Follow on Facebook: https://facebook.com/d3datacast▶ Follow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1twRPsVN00cCOxnFMldaw1?si=96c775bee5904b8e▶ Become our Teammate on Patreon: https://patreon.com/D3Datacast▶ D3 Datacast Merch: https://www.bonfire.com/store/d3-datacast/Show hosts:Matt Snyder: https://twitter.com/FFTMAGZac Snyder: https://twitter.com/ZacSnyder
2025 Final Four Picks! - D3 Datacast - Episode 112
Monday, March 17, 2025 • Duration 51:32
The second weekend of the 2025 NCAA Division III men’s basketball tournament saw favorites bounce-back after underdogs out-performed the D3 Datacast computer expectation in rounds one and two. The second weekend of the tournament saw a lot of chalk but that doesn’t mean we didn’t still get a bunch of great games.
That’s two weekends down with just one weekend to go. The focus of the Division III men’s basketball world shifts to Fort Wayne, Indiana as just Wesleyan, NYU, Trinity (CT) and WashU remain. A NESCAC-UAA final is guaranteed with the semifinals determining whether it will be Wesleyan or Trinity (CT) taking on NYU or WashU. Join us once again as we break down the matchups and take one last look at each of the remaining teams’ odds to cut down the nets.
We close out with a look back at how we did against last week’s picks slate and finish out this season of picks by picking against the computer line for the semifinals and call our shot for the National Championship.
The first weekend of the 2025 NCAA Division III men’s basketball tournament is in the books and what a weekend it was! The first and second rounds saw a little bit of everything - favorites cruising, upsets, overtime, great plays and great games. We can expect more of that in the tournament’s second weekend and we’re back to break it all down.
As we did going into the first round, we have another in-depth look at the matchups we will see in Friday’s matchups in the sectionals. Join us as we dive deep into the matchups and gain some context with how the D3 Datacast computer sees each pairing all the way down to win probabilities and point spreads.
Then it’s time to zoom back out and take an updated look at what the computer sees as the odds for each team to advance through each round of the bracket all the way up to winning it all. It is interesting to see how some teams’ chances have changed from their outlook at the beginning of the tournament and we talk about why that might be.
We close out with a look back at how we did against last week’s picks slate and are back with a new slate of five Sweet 16 games to pick against the computer line.
Our last show took a look at the first round favorites in the 2025 Division III men’s basketball tournament but what about beyond the first round? We’re back with another tournament preview show zooming out to look at the odds for each team to advance through the bracket.
Who are the favorites to move on to the tournament’s second weekend? Who are the favorites to make a run to the Final Four and which teams have the best odds to win it all? We fire up the computer powered by the D3 Datacast team efficiency ratings to help answer those big questions before we sit back and enjoy watching it all play out for real.
2025 Division D3 Basketball Tournament First Round Picks and Preview - Episode 109
Tuesday, March 4, 2025 • Duration 01:24:58
The 2025 Division III men’s basketball tournament bracket has been released so it’s time to break it down like only the D3 Datacast can!
As we’ve done in past years we go game-by-game taking a look at how the D3 Datacast computer sees each game, talk about how the teams match up and use the computer ratings to compute win probabilities and computer lines for each matchup. Upsets are what make tournament basketball so much fun but that can only happen with some understanding or context of which games really are upsets.
We also look back at how we did against our week 17 picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week 18 picks.
We had a blast tracking the 2025 NCAA Division III basketball tournament picture as the final games of the regular season played out on Sunday afternoon. All the games are now in the books so we take one more look at the final NPI rankings and talk about who is in, who is out and where everyone might be headed with a mock bracket.
The official bracket will be released on Monday, March 3 at noon. Stay tuned for our reactions to the official bracket and more content coming your way as we break down the 2025 tournament from all angles.
How Conference Tournaments Will Shape the NCAA Tournament - D3 Datacast - Episode 107
Monday, February 24, 2025 • Duration 01:11:50
Conference tournament week is here for the 2024-2025 Division III basketball season and what happens this week will shape the landscape heading into the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Join us this week as we talk through all the conference tournament outlooks that have implications for the tournament bubble. Who is in good shape should they fail to win their conference tournament and who has at-large chances hanging on by a thread?
There is also still a lot to play out for the race for the top eight protected seeds and the top 16 who could be in line for hosting an opening weekend pod. We put odds on it all with the help of the D3 Datacast computer running 1,000 simulations.
We also look back at how we did against our week 16 picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week 17 picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in the mailbag.
Old vs. New: Winners and Losers with D3 Basketball NPI - D3 Datacast - Episode 106
Monday, February 17, 2025 • Duration 01:39:25
The stretch run of this Division III basketball season is playing out a little differently with the change from the old regional ranking system to the new NPI. As this would have been the week we got the first set of fully ranked regional rankings, we take a look at how those regional rankings might have looked this week under the old criteria.
How would those regional rankings have slotted teams into the national picture? How do they compare to the rankings we’re getting with NPI? Has the move to NPI led to distinct “winners” and “losers” and does it look like an overall better toolset? All that and more in what should be a great show for anyone who would have preferred a year of NPI alongside the old familiar system rather than the abrupt change in how teams will be selected and seeded for the NCAA Tournament.
We also look back at how we did against our week 15 picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week 16 picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in the mailbag.
Protecting the Top 8 Seeds in the NCAA Tournament - D3 Datacast - Episode 105
Monday, February 10, 2025 • Duration 01:02:54
After another terrific week of the 2024-2025 Division III men’s basketball season it’s time to check in on the developing picture as the NCAA Tournament draws nearer. It’s hard to believe just three weeks remain until the national tournament and there is a lot of important jockeying for position yet to play out.
With the help of the D3 Datacast computer running simulations to play out the final weeks 1,000 times, we take a look at the race for the top eight protected seeds, the top 16 seed that will put themselves in position to host opening weekend pods, and how the bubble picture is taking shape, especially within the context of results from this past week.
As an added bonus, Matt takes the top projected seeds and shows how the top eight are likely to be placed in the bracket and how the rest of top 16 could be slotted and selected for hosting opportunities. New bracketing principles in place for this year make those top eight seed particularly important so be sure to understand what “protection” these teams will receive.
We also look back at how we did against our week 14 picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week 15 picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in the mailbag.
Bubble Watch! How are Teams Looking for At-Large Bids? - D3 Datacast - Episode 104
Monday, February 3, 2025 • Duration 58:39
The calendar turning to February marks the start of the Division III basketball season stretch run. Teams are locked in to the conference races and doing all they can to secure an automatic qualifying bid to the 2025 NCAA Division III men’s basketball tournament but all but one team per conference will fall short of that goal. That leaves just 21 at-large bids up for grabs.
Which teams are real contenders to receive an at-large bid should they need it and which are going at risk of seeing their bubble burst? How teams perform over the last few weeks of the season will ultimately determine that but with the help of the D3 Datacast computer running 1,000 simulations we can get a feel for how likely each team is to get into the tournament should they need to rely on an at-large bid to do so.
This week’s show kicks off our bubble watch where we categorize teams as locks, solid, bubble-in, bubble-out or probably out based on how often they secure at-large bids when necessary over the course of 1,000 rest of season simulations.
We also look back at how we did against our week 13 picks slate and make our decisions on a new five-game slate for week 14 picks, then wrap up with a check in with our viewers in the mailbag.
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