Curve Your Enthusiasm – Details, episodes & analysis

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Curve Your Enthusiasm

CIBC

Business

Frequency: 1 episode/29d. Total Eps: 78

Welcome to Curve Your Enthusiasm by CIBC Capital Markets, the only podcast in the world focusing on the Canadian economy and fixed income market.

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Apple Podcasts

🇨🇦 Canada - investing
29/07/2026
#98
🇨🇦 Canada - investing
07/06/2026
#95
🇨🇦 Canada - investing
23/11/2024
#88
🇨🇦 Canada - investing
22/11/2024
#54
🇨🇦 Canada - investing
21/11/2024
#70
🇨🇦 Canada - investing
07/11/2024
#65
🇫🇷 France - investing
06/11/2024
#97
🇨🇦 Canada - investing
13/10/2024
#77
🇨🇦 Canada - investing
12/10/2024
#50
🇨🇦 Canada - investing
11/10/2024
#36

Spotify

No recent rankings available

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Score global : 48%

Publication history

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This is a really good episode

Episode 79

Monday, October 7, 2024 • Duration 32:01

Ian is joined by two guests this week, Paul Beaudry (Professor of Economics at UBC and Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada) and Ali Jaffery from CIBC Economics. The episode begins with Paul giving his view on the 50.0bps cut from FOMC, and what the most recent strong NFP means for the November meeting (hint: 25.0bps not 50.0bps). In contrast, when thinking about the Bank of Canada, Paul outlines his views that the preconditions for getting administered rates to a much lower are setting have been met for Canada, and provides his views for the October meeting (hint: 50.0bps, not 25.0bps). Ian discusses the need for a smaller balance sheet, while Ali gives an update on what higher energy prices mean for the BoC reaction function. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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When the circus comes to town

Episode 78

Tuesday, August 13, 2024 • Duration 27:06

Ian is joined this week by Ali Jaffery in CIBC Economics. The duo begin the episode by taking stock of the intense market volatility seen over the past week, and whether what triggered the moved has a real fundamental basis. Ali discusses the other pockets of strength in the U.S. economy, concluding that the U.S is slowing but not enough to warrant non-standard sized cuts, like 50.0bps. Ian discusses the triggering of the Sahm rule within the context of Okuns Law, and Ali spends time talking about the underlying dynamics of the U.S. labour market. Ian and Ali go back-and-forth on what a faster Fed means for the Bank of Canada, ultimately landing on the view that the Bank can slow down if the Fed is speeding up. Ian finishes the episode discussing his favorite trades, and the implication of what a faster Bank does to 5yr yields, and thus 5yr mortgage rates. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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The Silence of the Longs

Episode 69

Friday, October 20, 2023 • Duration 26:58

Ian is joined by Craig Bell this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the recent cheapening of the cash market relative to swaps. Craig discusses the specific factors in the cash market impacting relative valuations, while Ian provides an update on the fair-value estimates from his swap spread modeling work. The elephant in the room is the Canadian long-end, and the richness of 10s30s and cross market. Ian and Craig spend time discussing how we got here and, what needs to happen for this richness to be remediated. Craig and Ian discuss the upcoming Bank of Canada rate decision, and get into a friendly disagreement about the proximate trigger of rate cuts in 2024. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Make duration great again

Episode 68

Friday, September 29, 2023 • Duration 21:28

Ian is joined this week by Mike Larson, and the duo kick off the episode by discussing the elephant in the room – the level of interest rates. Ian discusses the mechanics behind the ungluing of global long-end interest rates, while Mike gives his view on swap spreads. The pair talk about why the level of swap spreads should continue to decline, especially given how much 10yr Canadian rates have underperformed the United States recently. Ian gives his view on the absurdity of trading the ‘higher for longer’ and the ‘soft landing’ narrative at the same time. The show finishes with Ian and Mike outlining their favorite trades and which positions are the most crowded. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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An Economist and Strategist walk into a bar...

Episode 67

Wednesday, August 9, 2023 • Duration 23:34

Ian is joined this week by Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC. The duo begin the episode discussing the most recent North American jobs reports, with Avery highlighting why the Fed hasn’t yet done enough to cool the hot jobs market. Ian outlines the reasons not to get too wrapped-up in Canada’s recent wage gains, while Avery provides his view on the recent increase in the Unemployment Rate. The pair spend some time discussing the outlook for monetary policy, concluding that September is still very much in play for the Bank of Canada despite a string of weaker-than-expected activity data. The show finishes with Ian discussing the recent volatility in global long-bonds. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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This selloff has a deeper meaning

Episode 66

Monday, July 10, 2023 • Duration 21:56

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the episode discussing the recent bond market selloff. They reach an interesting conclusion early in the episode, highlighting that the ‘way’ in which the market is repricing has not been seen in all of 2023. Ian believes the market is pricing-in more inflation and lower growth in longer-dated yields, which Jeremy suggests is a function of where we are in the cycle. Jeremy discusses his view on the upcoming Bank of Canada meeting, while discussing the ‘big’ global macro themes and what they mean to the bond market and swap spreads. Ian finishes the episode by opining on recent data from the labour market, and highlights his favorite trades for the week ahead. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Someone is making a mistake...

Episode 65

Thursday, June 15, 2023 • Duration 24:44

Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham, and the duo begin the episode discussing the FOMC rate decision. Andrew lays out the logic behind his forecast for a July and September hike, while Ian walks through the implications for the Bank of Canada. Ian introduces his new bond forecasts and talks about why current market pricing for the Bank and the Fed looks so strange compared to prior cycles. Andrew talks about his economic outlook for 2024 and highlights the upcoming weighting changes for CPI next week. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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‘Go with’ or go the other way?

Episode 64

Thursday, May 25, 2023 • Duration 23:23

The big news in Canada is the unexpected heat in the latest batch of CPI numbers. The reacceleration of Canadian prices may see the Bank of Canada respond with an interest rate hike later this summer. In this episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Ian is joined by Jonathan Guilford, and the duo begin the episode by taking stock of what happened over the past week. John opines on the ‘why’ and the ‘how’, while Ian discusses the risks surrounding ongoing repricing to continue. Ian discusses how a single hike from the BoC will not prevent a bond market rally later in the year, while John discusses why the curve is most likely to steepen after the summer. The duo end the episode discussing their favorite trades, and why Jonathan sees continued weakness in the 5yr sector of the curve regardless if the BoC hikes or not. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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The way of the dodo?

Episode 63

Friday, March 31, 2023 • Duration 22:27

The most recent Debt Management Strategy (DMS) raised the possibility that the Canada Mortgage Bond (CMB) program may be terminated, and folded into the GoC market. This is an extremely important development to the Canadian fixed income market, and to speak on the potential implications, Ian is joined this week by Gianluca Gargano, Managing Director and Head of Government Credit at CIBC Capital Markets. The show begins with Gianluca framing the conversation outlined in the DMS, and discussing what just happened and why. Ian speaks on other contours of the DMS, in particular what government issuance looks like and how this announcement increases the impact on the belly of the curve. Gianluca spends the balance of the show talking about competing assets to CMBs, and how they may trade given the shocking announcement. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Under the table & dreaming

Episode 62

Wednesday, March 15, 2023 • Duration 26:23

The extreme volatility this week warrants some serious discussion, and Ian is joined by Craig Bell for this episode. The duo begin discussing the rapid series of events that culminated in one of the most volatile days for interest rates since the 1980s. Craig provides his view on what this all means for monetary policy, while Ian introduces two potential shoes left to drop that suggest the coast is not entirely clear yet. The co-hosts spend some time discussing how Canadian interest rate derivatives are handing the benchmark transition towards CORRA, and finish the episode discussing their favorite trades in the weeks ahead. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Curve Your Enthusiasm – Details, episodes & analysis

Podcast details

Recent rankings

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Shared links between episodes and podcasts

RSS feed quality and score

Publication history

Latest published episodes

Related Shows Based on Content Similarities

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Related Shows Based on Content Similarities

Curve Your Enthusiasm – Details, episodes & analysis

Podcast details

Recent rankings

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Shared links between episodes and podcasts

Other1

RSS feed quality and score

Publication history

Latest published episodes

Similar podcasts and content

Related Shows Based on Content Similarities

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Related Shows Based on Content Similarities

Other1