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Eight months ago Dave Cournoyer told us the pro-Canada side in Alberta had no leader, no campaign, and no ground game. It became our most-listened-to episode ever. On Monday that side won three to one, so Dave is back — solo host this week, both of us nursing colds — to explain how, and why the Premier's week got harder after the result. Dave has covered Alberta politics for twenty years at Daveberta, the Substack I turn to for Alberta. What we got into: Ten ballots, ten boxes, no tabulators. Why the count ran into Thursday and why one First Nation ran out of ballots. The nine questions few polled. The government expected all of them to pass at 60 or 70 percent. Immigration scraped through; the constitutional questions all lost. Dave on the $4 million ad campaign that was "long-winded, vague, and confusing" at the same time. "I voted to abolish the Senate. I lost. I'll take the L." Why nobody outside the political-nerd caucus had the Senate in their top ten. Half a million leave voters. A message to Ottawa, or the real base? How the separatist pitch drifted from draft constitutions to "let Albertans decide." Who knocked the doors. The NDP ran a get-out-the-vote operation; the governing party, as far as Dave could tell, didn't to nearly the same extent The Premier's November problem. Thousands of members at the convention, a push to make separatism party policy that lost by one board vote last year, and a leader who just told her most active organizers to park their beliefs or leave. Also discussed: Calgary-Shaw as the warning sign, why Thomas Lukaszuk deserves more credit than he's getting, Pollara's finding that separatists think Smith is a federalist and federalists think she's a separatist, the Quebec playbook (start a party, or take over the one you're in), and following ten counts from a Halifax hotel room at 1 a.m. Dave's call: the next big moment in Alberta politics is the UCP convention in late November. We'll have him back once the Premier is through it. Find Dave at daveberta.substack.com and on the Daveberta Podcast.

Six weeks ago Ginny Roth told us there’s a magic button in Canadian politics: press “Trump” and watch your numbers move. Carney pressed it. Doug Ford pressed it. Then Quebec shrugged, and B.C. seems to be shrugging too. So we opened a beer to work out what changed, among other things. No guest this week. This is the first “At the Bar”: the two of us catching up on six interviews and one B.C. IPA, after a listener (hi, Barrett) said he missed the beer reviews. What we got into: The last one percent. Graham Lanktree’s point that a Canada–UK deal only touches what CPTPP left behind caught Joseph flat-footed. Andrew on where the real barriers are, and why a British teacher can work in Auckland but not in Surrey. Is Reform Thatcher’s party? Darren Grimes said no. Andrew agrees, and thinks the one making the Thatcherite pitch in Britain right now is Kemi Badenoch. “Win back the right.” Ginny’s advice to the Tories gave Andrew a visible reaction on air. Now he explains it: five seats lost to Reform, dozens to the Lib Dems, and you can’t out-Reform Reform. There’s a can of Coke in the argument. The Trump button, provincially. One in 10 B.C. voters put tariffs at the top of their list. Andrew’s read from the doors: voters can smell an election called for party advantage. “It’s just not cricket.” Alberta votes Monday. Why a 25 percent separation vote is a bigger problem for Danielle Smith than for Ottawa, and what Brexit and Scotland say about movements that lose and don’t go home. Also discussed: why Darren’s council in Durham has shed councillors since he was on, Andrew’s unfinished kitchen, Joseph’s 20th wedding anniversary (china, apparently), $30 French butter from a Surrey strip mall, the beer club’s feelings about Margaret Thatcher, Andy Burnham’s Brexit habit, a curry-leaf beer that failed twice, and four days of someone else’s curry delivery. Predictions: we both say the B.C. Conservatives pull it off on Oct. 24. The beer: Coast Mountain Brewing’s Hopganjola, 6.7 percent. Andrew lands it between 3.75 and 4 on Untappd. Citrus, tropical, slightly dank, and faintly of curry. Next week: the Alberta referendum, with a returning guest.

Six months ago we had Rudy Husny on to ask whether Christine Fréchette could pull off a Mark Carney-style win in Quebec. The answer arrived Monday night: zero seats, down from ninety, and the premier lost her own riding. Rudy's first words on the result: "Kim Campbell can sleep better tonight." So we got him back on three hours of sleep and a lot of Coca-Cola. Rudy was a senior adviser in the Harper government, ran twice for the federal Conservatives in Outremont, and now calls Quebec politics for CJAD, FM 107,7, and Radio-Canada. He's also the man who said all campaign that Duhaime would have a target on his back. What we got into: Why the PQ should be relieved it lost the majority. Twenty-eight percent of the vote, the lowest share for any government in Quebec's history, and a referendum question that now needs another party's votes. Rudy calls it the best outcome the PQ could have asked for. Nineteen is the perfect number. Duhaime asked for twelve seats and got nineteen. Rudy's advice: take the whole caucus into a forest for a week before the Assembly sits. The House of Cards that ended like Veep. The CAQ's foreign-interference alarm, who pushed it, and why Rudy thinks comms classes will teach it for years. Forty Liberal seats, and a wall at eighty. Why Milliard's result is both a comeback and a ceiling. Wheels, no engine. The CAQ still has about a million dollars in public funding on the way, a voter file, and no MNAs. Who picks up the vehicle? The Trump card has expired. Fréchette tried to play it; Andrew and Joseph think David Eby is finding the same thing in B.C. Also discussed: why Stephen Harper's 2006 Quebec map and Duhaime's 2026 map are the same map, Pierre Poilievre rushing to congratulate a man who once needed his help, PR as the one thing all four parties now want (funny how that works), Quebec solidaire's Politburo keeping the lights on, PSPP's first hundred days, and a short lecture from Andrew on which side of the border one buys beer. Rudy's verdict for anglophone Canada: forget about the referendum for a while. Seventy percent of Quebecers would still vote No, and nothing about Monday changed that. Find Rudy on Dans les couloirs and at @rudyhusny.

Graham is POLITICO's senior trade reporter in London, and he covers Britain's trade relationships with Europe, the United States, and Canada. Last month he co-wrote the piece arguing that Carney's middle powers alliance arrived before the middle powers were ready. Days later, Europe sent an invitation. What we got into: Warm words and trade flows. Graham on why Strasbourg was a political signal, and why none of this shows up in anyone's quarterly results before 2028. The Homer-in-the-hedge strategy. Graham's read on how the Burnham government handles Trump: keep the Starmer deal, blame Starmer for its flaws, and hope the president forgets Britain exists. Plus the New York readout, in which the prime minister raised an unnamed company's trade problem. "Fresh air and clean water." Seventy percent of Britons, including half of Reform voters, want closer ties with the EU. Andrew explains why that number means nothing, and which question would. Why Labour reopened Brexit. Burnham told conference the next manifesto will debate a customs union, or rejoining. His own business secretary told POLITICO the conversation isn't helpful. Graham sides with the business secretary. The last one percent. CPTPP now covers 99 percent of Canada–UK trade. The missing one percent comes down to two companies, Canada Goose and Jaguar Land Rover, and a rules-of-origin fight neither side can finish. Chlorinated chicken, Canadian edition. The issue that sank a UK–US deal under Boris Johnson is the same one blocking Canada, minus the shouting. Andrew's inbox from the CETA years. Also discussed: Carney's convening power, Canada's new seat at the table on Britain's next fighter jet, why nobody marches for white-collar jobs, and a G20 trade ministers' meeting where the real conversation is Chinese steel. Graham's closer: Carney and Trump both said this week they think a deal is possible. That's warmer than anything we've heard in a month. Whether it's more than words, the next 90 days will tell. Find Graham's reporting at POLITICO Europe and on X @g_lanktree.

Sean is editor-at-large at The Hub, was Stephen Harper's senior economic adviser, and is one of the more prolific policy writers in the country. He also spent the last month arguing a position most of Canada had decided was closed. What we got into: The deal in the parallel universe. Sean's read of what was on the table on August 21: tariff-free access for 85 to 90 percent of Canadian exports, at a real cost to autos, steel, and aluminum. His question is what the people who called it unsignable would have said if Carney had signed it. The madness of crowds. A 60 percent consensus is healthy. A 99 percent consensus is something else. Sean's best line: "I don't tend to make good judgments when I'm mad. I think that scales to governments and countries." What might get Carney back to the table. The investment summit, and the investors who won't commit until the U.S. file is settled. Sean's theory of the catalyst. Andrew's Brexit rant, briefly. Associate membership doesn't exist and won't, ten EU states still haven't ratified CETA, and Erasmus alone costs Britain a billion dollars a year. Here endeth the rant. Managed multipolarity. Sean's provocation: Carney may not just be responding to a less reliable America. He may welcome it. The New York Times interview and the reserve-currency line are the evidence. Winning the ideas, losing the elections. Tax cuts, airport privatization, labour reform, all from a Liberal government. Sean on why the Reform Party, which never formed government, might be the most successful party of the last 50 years. Also discussed: Sean's drinking game for anyone who can't name the new B.C. Conservative leader (Lorne Doerkson, for the record), Andrew's theory of political breakups, Carney's approval numbers as "Saddam Hussein territory," what "no direct payments" to the EU covers, and the minivan-driving normie in Surrey who has a nine-to-five and better things to do than politics. Sean's closer: the measure of a conservative is a commitment to ideas, not a temperament. Reagan said he was a conservative but wasn't in a bad mood about it. Somewhere along the way that got flipped. Find Sean at The Hub and on X @Sean_Speer.

Two crypto billionaires gave Reform UK £72 million in 36 hours, more than every British party combined raised in all of 2025. All of it legal, for now. This week on Craft Politics: Sam Coates, Deputy Political Editor of Sky News and co-host of Politics at Sam and Anne's, joins Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy to answer what £72 million actually buys in British politics, and whether Labour can make Reform hand it back. We discuss: The handback question — why a backdated £100,000 cap is easier to announce than to enforce, and the "reverse revenge legislating" Sam expects if Reform ever wins From eight MPs to 326 — Sam's "moonshot" arithmetic, and the tactical anti-Reform voting he's seen in Makerfield, Caerphilly, and Aberdeen South "Better eyelashes on the same body" — the Burnham bounce, a bloodless coup, and why Sam won't give a verdict until after the 28 October Budget Why Canada capped donations 20 years ago and Britain never has — Sam's one-line answer, and Andrew on what candidates always suspected the money was really for Find Sam on Politics at Sam and Anne's: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/politics-at-sam-and-annes/id1709628885

Reform UK is having the best year of its life. Official opposition in Wales. Seventeen seats in Scotland. Over 1,400 councillors. And yet Middle England still hasn't climbed aboard. This week on Craft Politics: Darren Grimes, Reform UK councillor, deputy leader of Durham County Council, and one of GB News's most recognisable voices, joins Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy to answer what Reform actually is, where its next million voters come from, and whether it can govern or just campaign. We discuss: The ceiling problem. Reform won more council seats on a smaller vote share than the year before. Is this a party filling the void left by Labour and Conservative collapse, or something structurally stronger? Where the next million comes from. Darren's two-pronged attack: prove economic credibility to the Sussexes and cultural compatibility to the Red Wall. And why Essex, not just Durham, is now in play. Not Thatcher's party. Why Reform would nationalise British Steel, why it's past the ideological purity of the 1980s, and how Darren's Labour-voting grandad changed his mind about Maggie. The Burnham threat. Andy Burnham is coming for the same voter Reform wants. Darren's response: nobody in County Durham knows who he is, and Manchesterism isn't going to solve the North's problems. The migration radicalisation. A majority of British voters now support detention of illegal migrants. Darren's warning: if Reform doesn't get this right, people will conclude the ballot box is broken and go to the horseshoe of doom. Government in waiting. What Reform's first 100 days would look like, from scrapping green levies to lifting the cap on medical school places, and why Whitehall needs grabbing by the balls. Also discussed: HMO Britain, why the BBC immigration argument was always wrong, the billionaire who just left taking £330 million in tax with him, and whether Darren has parliamentary ambitions. Spoiler: the call might come. Find Darren on GB News and follow him on X. — Craft Politics is a cross-border political podcast where Canadian and British experts come on to answer one sharp political question per episode. Co-hosted by Joseph Lavoie (former senior advisor in a Canadian Prime Minister's Office) and Andrew Percy (former UK Conservative MP). Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/craft-politics/id1790715962 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Zaw8zZHe7qiFYIby7lKRB Web: https://www.craftpolitics.fm Joseph Lavoie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josephlavoie/ Andrew Percy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-percy-b996b431a/ Guest inquiries: joseph.lavoie@crestviewstrategy.com #CraftPolitics #UKPolitics #ReformUK #CanadianPolitics #Anglosphere

Ten days ago Ginny Roth posted a thread arguing that Canadians need to stop being shocked by Donald Trump and start making hard choices from a weak hand. Jason Kenney replied, accusing her of "craven cynicism masquerading as hard-headed realism." And now the Canadian right is having it out, complete with name-calling (Maple MAGA? Really?) So we brought Ginny on to make the argument herself. Ginny is a partner at Crestview Strategy, was director of communications for Pierre Poilievre's 2022 leadership campaign, and writes for The Hub and the National Post. What we got into: The magic politics button. There's a button every incumbent in the country can press right now — attack Trump, elbows up — and it converts straight into public support. Her worry is what that does to the decisions they're supposed to be making. We were closer to a deal than you think. And when it fell apart, you could see which pundits were quietly relieved. What she's actually afraid of. Ten years from now, the politics of this moment will have passed and we'll want open markets back. Ginny isn't sure the public support will still be there. NAFTA was hard fought the first time. The age split running through this. If you're established and 55-plus, this trade war costs you very little. If you're 40 and can't buy a house, you pay for it twice. Ginny says it maps almost exactly onto the conservative infighting. Draw a hard line on the right. The takeaway that surprised me most — the answer for Poilievre and Badenoch isn't running to the middle. It's being clear about what they won't talk about, and admitting nobody on the right plays the role Buckley played anymore. Andrew on the mushy middle. His phrase, and he means a coalition where nobody gets everything — with lines on the right you don't cross, same as the ones on the left. Also discussed: whether Canadians are being sold a pup on replacing the American market, what Kenney took from COVID, why Ginny doubts half the MAGA accounts in her mentions are real people, Andrew's proposed impurity test, and the ostriches — who did nothing wrong except get bird flu. Find Ginny at The Hub and the National Post, and on X @GinnyRothTO.

Ten years ago, everyone who was supposed to know — the British government, the Bank of England, the IMF, half the world's economists, even President Obama — said Leave couldn't win. Then a campaign with no party, no machine, and almost no money beat all of them. We're not here to relitigate Brexit. We want to know how you actually pull that off. So I brought in Nick Varley, who ran the ground campaign for Vote Leave and built a 12,000-strong volunteer army from a standing start — twenty people and no referendum date — in eight months. He now leads UK campaigns at Crestview. Nobody is better placed to explain the part of Brexit the Cambridge Analytica story always skips: the shoe leather. What we got into: The army from nothing. It started with Nick cold-calling Eurosceptics one at a time — "Alan, do you know anyone else who thinks like you?" Not scalable, not glamorous, and the foundation of everything. It wasn't really about immigration. For the twelve thousand, Nick says, it was sovereignty: "I could live with X, if we the voters had the power to decide." The "skint" theory of politics. Nick's whole model: politics runs on whether people feel broke — which is why "you'll be poorer if you leave" sounded, to a lot of voters, like an insult from the very people who'd made them poorer. How Obama backfired. The "back of the queue" line — a British staffer forgot to translate "queue" into American — and why Project Fear kept turning voters into angry voters. The worst arguments. Kittens (yes, kittens) for Leave; the "punishment budget" and the imminent collapse of the world's fifth-largest economy for Remain. Why Alberta should be watching. Referendums don't release pressure — they harden identities, and the losing side doesn't go away. Why Joseph thinks the first Alberta vote is the dangerous one. Also discussed: bendy bananas, why a chocolate bar became a "chocolate-flavoured product," Scotland's "double leavers," the SNP sweep, and why businesses that pick a side in a referendum tend to regret it. The through-line, ten years on: once a voter crosses an identity line, they rarely cross back. That's the warning Canada should take from Britain. Nick Varley leads UK campaigns at Crestview Strategy — find him on LinkedIn, link below.

We're trying a new episode format, so let us know what you think of it. We didn't have time to record a full show, we have as a short and snappy take on this week's by-election results in the UK and what it means for Keir Starmer's future.

A week ago, the Henry Nowak case was the story dominating the news agenda. Then Belfast caught fire — literally — and two separate stories became one. Percy and Joseph work through how a murder in Southampton and a knife attack in Northern Ireland became one national tinderbox. What we got into: This week's number: minus six. Nigel Farage's net approval on his handling of the Nowak case — the worst of any senior leader in Britain. Andrew has a Boris-shaped theory about why it might not matter. Two nights of Belfast riots. Water cannon in Newtownabbey, twelve injured officers...and expectation that a third night will rage on. Why Northern Ireland's fire burns on different fuel than England's. Why hasn't Canada had its Southampton? Same immigration anxieties, same online ecosystem, no riots. Andrew's answer involves dinghies, hotels, and what people can see from the war memorial. The thug problem. The rioters are making it harder to fix the very system some of them claim to be angry about — and the only winners are the actual far right. An opening for Kemi? Badenoch sits at plus twelve and keeps quietly stacking strong performances. We ask whether anyone will notice before they have to. Starmer's "island of strangers." The line that resonated, the 180 that followed, and what it says about who's allowed to talk about immigration. Also discussed: Vancouver's curiously invisible World Cup, the case against $500 tickets, why Andrew is boycotting Belgium over his grandma's tortoiseshell cigarette case, and his suspiciously great skin and hair on CBC. For Last Orders: Joseph is finally on to Wind of Change, the podcast asking whether the CIA wrote a Scorpions power ballad — and Andrew remembers Baroness Meta Ramsay, the softly spoken Labour peer he treated like his grandma on foreign delegations, who turned out to be one of MI6's most senior officers. Obituary linked below —https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/meta-ramsay-death-mi6-spy-b2985761.html. If you haven't yet, find us on Apple Podcasts and YouTube, leave us a five-star rating, and drop your questions in the comments — that's what the Postbag is for.

Over the weekend the BC Conservatives picked the candidate the smart money had written off — and half the commentariat instantly called it a gift to the NDP. We're not convinced. A party that went from a rounding error to Official Opposition in a single election just told us exactly what kind of party it wants to be. What we got into: The recession nobody can feel. Two negative quarters, a textbook technical recession — and the economists shrugged while Pierre Poilievre reached for the megaphone. We get into which number actually moves a voter, and why 0.1% of GDP isn't it. A conservative won the Conservative party. Less obvious than it sounds. Kerry-Lynne Findlay ran as the only "true" conservative in the field and made everyone else argue on her turf — a purity test, inside a party stitched together from the refugees of a rival coalition. "Half the province is tied to a tree; the other half is trying to chop it down." Andrew's field guide to why nobody wins British Columbia as a conservative — you win as a coalition, or you don't win at all. The transfers that didn't transfer. When the third-place candidate dropped off, a sizable chunk of his vote wouldn't land on either finalist. We dig into what that says about a party with a split personality. The seat she doesn't have. Can you lead an opposition you can't sit in? The Carney precedent, Andrew's parliamentary traditionalism, and the awkward family math of getting Findlay into the legislature. A gift to the NDP, or lazy analysis? Cometh the hour, cometh the woman. Or cometh the disaster. We make the case both ways. Also discussed: a Postbag full of Alberta alienation, and the conviction out west that Ottawa abandoned them first; Carney quietly losing an MP over climate policy; Howard Anglin's contrarian case for a looser confederation (my Last Order, linked below); and Andrew rediscovering San Francisco after 26 years, with the brewery that justified the detour. Beating the NDP is the easy part to imagine. The hard part is whether the right can resist its favourite hobby — fighting itself — long enough to get there. Anglin's piece is linked here, and the Postbag's always open — find us in the YouTube or Spotify comments.

Last week, we recorded with Evan Menzies about the brewing Alberta referendum — and within hours of us hitting publish, Premier Smith unveiled the actual ballot question. So we're back at it. It's also the first outing of the revamped format — a number, a postbag question, the deep dive, and last orders. Tell us what you make of it. What we got into: - The 7-point question. New Angus Reid polling shows that simply rewriting Alberta's 37-word ballot question in plain English moves support for staying from 60% to 67%. The wording is doing campaign work — and 51% of Albertans, including 38% of UCP voters, say the official version is confusing. - A listener's smell test. After my conversation with Kyla, a listener asks what actually backs Pierre Poilievre's claim he can do better on the economy. Andrew on why opposition leaders rarely get to prove anything — and why, on credibility right now, Canadians have already chosen. - Carney's "dangerous bluff." The Prime Minister came out swinging this week. Is naming the bluff plainly leadership — or does telling Albertans their vote is undemocratic just hand the Yes campaign exactly the grievance it feeds on? - Why Brexit is the wrong analogy. Andrew calls it sloppy — then uses it himself three times, because Scotland 2014 is the real playbook. Better Together won, but won ugly. Project Fear, the Telegraph's referendum-day Burns poem, and why "you'll be poorer" lands badly on people who already feel poor. - Andrew's best line. "For a lot of separatists, it's not so much they want to leave Canada. They feel Canada's left them." The whole Remain messaging problem in one sentence. - The 25% threshold. I bring in Damon Centola's Change — why 35% Yes, with no campaign yet run, is closer to a 50/50 fight than dismissive eastern punditry wants to admit. Also discussed: Andrew's accidental field trip to Leavenworth, Washington (a town that looks like Bavaria because of a 1960s economic-development study), why people in Vancouver can't walk in a straight line, my pick of Derek Thompson's Plain English on the global fertility crisis, and a brief debate over whether fewer humans on the planet is, on balance, a bad thing.

In February, Dave Cournoyer told us Alberta was sliding toward a separation referendum the pro-Canada side wasn't ready to fight. Three months later, the referendum is both stalled and very much alive — a court has locked the separatist petition in a drawer, and the government's backup plan collapsed when it announced a result before the vote happened. So we brought in Evan Menzies — Crestview Strategy VP, former director of communications for the United Conservative Party and the Wildrose caucus before it, with a front-row seat to the 2017 merger that created the UCP. He's spent years mobilizing grassroots support for Alberta's energy sector — so on the separatist base, he isn't guessing. And he's just written the conservative case for staying in Canada, the conversation we really wanted. What we got into: The gong show, explained. A court ruling, a botched press release, and 700,000 signatures across two petitions — how Alberta ended up with two referendum questions and a constitutional headache. One question, two messages. "Do you want to leave Canada?" or "Do you want to stay?" — the wording is the whole ballgame, and the gentler version is both the Premier's escape hatch and the separatists' grievance. The establishment stitch-up. Andrew brings the Scottish and Brexit playbook: block the vote people want, and you don't kill the movement — you grow it. Gasoline and a match. Evan's sharpest line, on the pitch for a blank-slate constitution — building a country from scratch and hoping it works out "after the explosion." The pipeline clock. Shovels promised by September 2027, conveniently just before an election. What happens to the temperature if the ground is still frozen? The conservative case for Canada. Vimy Ridge, a Team Canada jersey, and why Evan thinks giving up on the country is the least conservative thing an Albertan could do. Also discussed: why one in four Albertans you meet arrived in the last five years (we suspect Evan's own boosterism is to blame), the National Energy Program as Alberta's inherited trauma, why a Stéphane Dion unity tour is a federalist's nightmare, and Joseph's campaign to draft Evan as Alberta's next lieutenant governor. Evan's read: the separation debate is mainstream now, the next four months are "a tornado," and the fight that matters may be the election that follows, not this fall's vote. Find Evan's writing on Substack.

Sixty episodes ago, James Wharton came on the show with a Labour government struggling to find its sea legs. 15 months later, Keir Starmer is fighting for his job. So we brought James back. Lord Wharton of Yarm — former Conservative MP for Stockton South, the kind of Red Wall seat Reform now eats for breakfast. What we got into: Why Starmer probably survives the week. The would-be regicides aren't coordinated, aren't coalescing, and the PM has called their bluff. The catch: being a process-driven lawyer who decides he wants to stay is a survival strategy until it isn't. The Streeting moment that wasn't. Reports that the Health Secretary tried to see Starmer one-on-one after cabinet, and was told to wait. Why that matters more than it sounds. The Burnham brand puzzle. Why does the press keep calling the Mayor of Greater Manchester the saviour the Labour Party's been waiting for, when the by-election ground nearest his door just went Green? James and Andrew both served alongside him. Both have thoughts. Reform's ceiling problem. 1,453 councillors gained, 14 councils taken, breakthroughs in Scotland and Wales — and vote share still down from last year's locals. James on why this might be peak Reform, not the launchpad it looks like. The non-aggression pact question. Should the Tories cut a deal with Reform? James's answer is emphatic, and Andrew brings in the Canadian comparison — what actually had to happen before Reform and the PCs merged in 2003. The Carney contrast. James's best line of the episode: Carney is pulling off the trick Starmer was elected to do. Also discussed: why Hackney's transgender-sanctuary-and-Palestine-twinning agenda doesn't speed up the bin collection, why Labour quietly cooled on votes at 16 once 16-year-olds started voting Green, and the evening with Liz Truss we both attended the night before recording. Five-party politics, no majorities anywhere, and a Prime Minister whose own MPs can't decide whether to push him or just let him quietly tip over.

For forty years, the Conservative Party owned cost of living. Not anymore — and Kyla Ronellenfitsch has the polling to prove it. This week on Craft Politics: pollster and data scientist Kyla Ronellenfitsch joins Joseph Lavoie to answer whether the CPC has quietly lost its forty-year brand on the economy, with new data showing Mark Carney's Liberals now lead Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives on managing the cost of living. We discuss: Why the Liberals lead the Conservatives by five points on managing the cost of living, and what that means for a forty-year Conservative brand asset The favourability ladder and why its order matters more than the horse race Why Poilievre's rebrand kept snapping back to attack mode, and whether the Davos speech quietly locked in Carney's brand The narrative reset on young Canadians — the CPC has gone from +35 to +5 with young men in sixteen months Chapters:0:00 — Joseph admits he's been wrong on cost of living1:23 — Is cost of living still Canada's top issue?5:54 — The +5 disaster: how the Liberals took the CPC's brand11:15 — Carney halo vs Poilievre bad vibes14:42 — The Davos speech that wouldn't quit17:29 — The favourability ladder, top to bottom20:25 — Why Poilievre's rebrand snapped back24:41 — Stop saying young Canadians are conservative29:53 — The elder millennial sweet spot35:30 — Avi Lewis and the anti-corporate lane the NDP keeps missing40:42 — The single number to watch in twelve months Find Kyla on Substack: https://relaywithkyla.substack.comListen to her podcast Culture Lab on Air Quotes Media — Craft Politics is a cross-border political podcast where Canadian and British experts come on to answer one political question per episode. Co-hosted by Joseph Lavoie (former senior advisor in a Canadian Prime Minister's Office) and Andrew Percy (former UK Conservative MP). Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/craft-politics/id1790715962Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Zaw8zZHe7qiFYIby7lKRBWeb: https://www.craftpolitics.fm Joseph Lavoie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josephlavoie/Andrew Percy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-percy-b996b431a/ Guest inquiries: joseph.lavoie@crestviewstrategy.com #CraftPolitics #CanadianPolitics #Polling #PoliticalAnalysis #PoliticalResearch

We brought in Rudy Husny — former senior advisor to Ed Fast at International Trade, two-time federal Conservative candidate in Outremont, 2020 Conservative leadership contender, and one of the most thoughtful federal Conservative voices on Quebec politics — to make sense of what has happened in the last 10 weeks. What we got into: Why the CAQ is inching back. New premier Christine Fréchette is quietly stealing votes from the Liberals without really announcing anything. The "Fréchette as Mark Carney" framing is everywhere — Rudy explains why it's lazy. Charles Milliard's Bill 96 stumble. Three clarifications on the notwithstanding clause in one week. Rookie error or structural problem? (Probably both.) PSPP's doubling-down problem. He'd gain eight points by dropping the referendum promise. He won't. Even Lucien Bouchard has told him to walk it back. Rudy on why the rigidity actually matters. The Bill 21 wildcard. A Supreme Court decision is pending and could drop during the campaign. Why the outcome matters to every province, not just Quebec. Caucus management as stock exchange. Rudy's best line of the episode: when you're high in the polls, invest in your caucus — that's when you'll need the return later. A warning for Carney, and a post-mortem on Poilievre. The federal Conservative puzzle. Why Quebec keeps breaking the CPC's heart, and whether Dan Robertson's radical idea — stop running Conservative candidates in Quebec entirely — has any merit. Also discussed: why Quebec staffers are quitting cabinet jobs now rather than six months from now (we've both been there), why "Premier of the West Island" isn't the same as Premier of Quebec, and how Fréchette showed up in Ottawa, demanded answers from Sean Fraser on the notwithstanding clause, and walked out looking like the strong woman in the room. Three scenarios, minority government most likely, and the CAQ and the PCQ are both still very much wildcards. Find Rudy on his French-language podcast https://www.youtube.com/@Danslescouloirs

Carney has his majority — 174 seats after sweeping all three by-elections. First time a Canadian minority has become a majority through floor-crossings and by-elections. But the bigger story is the Conservative collapse underneath: worst by-election losses in a decade, per Eric Grenier at The Writ. The last time results looked this bad? 2014 — the year before Harper lost. We dig into what the majority actually unlocks (committees, not just vibes), whether Carney governs like he has a new mandate, and what the by-election numbers really tell us about where the Conservatives stand. Then across the Atlantic: UK May elections are three weeks out. Reform projected to control 60 councils. Labour bracing for historic losses in England, Scotland, and Wales. Andrew breaks down what four-party politics actually looks like on the ground. Plus: Orbán loses Hungary, and Quebec's October election just got a lot more interesting — the PQ is fading, the Liberals are surging under Charles Milliard, and the CAQ just chose Christine Fréchette as their new leader. A deeper Quebec dive with a guest expert is coming soon. Eric Grenier's analysis at The Writ: https://substack.com/home/post/p-193964435

Everyone has a story about winning, and almost none of them hold up.First up, the Iran ceasefire. After nearly six weeks of Operation Epic Fury, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week pause in the fighting — announced on Truth Social less than two hours before Trump's own deadline, the one where he threatened to send Iran "back to the stone ages." Both sides declared total victory. The problem is the Strait of Hormuz is still largely closed, over 400 tankers remain anchored in the Persian Gulf, and Iran is now demanding tolls for ships passing through what used to be an international waterway. Joseph and Andrew break down what the stated war aims actually were, whether any of them were achieved, and why Trump's inability to set modest goals — and stick to them — has handed the Iranian regime a survival story it will tell for decades. Andrew puts it plainly: if you're going to take on a despotic regime, you have to do it from the moral high ground. Threatening to wipe out a civilization is not that.Then, the floor crossings. Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu became the fifth MP to cross to the Liberals since last April's election, bringing Carney's seat count to 171 — one short of a majority. With three byelections on April 13th in Scarborough Southwest, University–Rosedale, and Terrebonne, a Liberal majority is now a question of when, not if. What makes Gladu's crossing so striking isn't just the number — it's who she is. An MP who aggressively challenged the COVID response, pushed back on vaccine policy, fought the conversion therapy ban, and voted to restrict abortion is now a Liberal. Joseph and Andrew credit Fred Delorey for the framing: what we're seeing isn't just Conservative dysfunction — it's Mark Carney operating as a ruthless political player. The whole caucus is now available for picking, not just the red Tory wing. And for Pierre Poilievre, Andrew draws the parallel nobody wants to hear: Jeremy Corbyn nearly won in 2017, and by 2019 the public had moved on. Moments pass.Finally, Hungary. On April 7th — five days before the election — US Vice President JD Vance flew to Budapest, stood on stage with Viktor Orbán, called Trump on his phone so the crowd could hear "I love Hungary and I love Viktor," and told voters to stand with Orbán at the polls. He did all of this on the same day he called EU behaviour "one of the worst examples of foreign election interference I have ever seen." Andrew doesn't mince words on the hypocrisy — and draws on his own experience as a British MP who did Council of Europe election monitoring to explain just how extraordinary Vance's visit actually was. Joseph flags the Russia angle: the Financial Times has reported a Kremlin-linked operation flooding Hungarian social media to boost Orbán — and now you have the US and Russia aligned on the same side of a European election. Andrew's line: the MAGA obsession with strongmen is being used by Putin like a useful idiot.The Hungarian election is April 12th. Independent polls have Tisza up 16 to 19 points. We'll see.

Last night, President Trump addressed the nation for the first time since launching Operation Epic Fury against Iran on February 28. Joseph and Andrew break down a speech that offered no new information, no clear exit strategy, and no plan for the Strait of Hormuz — 32 days into a war that's sent gas prices past $4 a gallon and oil past $100 a barrel. They cover Trump's complete inversion of the standard wartime communications playbook — waiting a month to make his case while public support eroded beneath him. They dig into the regime change contradiction: Trump encouraged Iranians to rise up in the first days of the war, now says regime change was never the goal, and claims the remaining leadership is "less radical." Joseph and Andrew aren't buying it. The conversation turns to the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran's IRGC is running a de facto toll booth — charging ships $2 million to pass, with China potentially assisting in the collection. Trump says the Strait will "open up naturally." Andrew argues the conflict isn't over until it's resolved, and that if the U.S. and Europe both refuse to secure it, Iran has no incentive to give up its leverage. Andrew offers a provocative thought: the endgame might look remarkably similar to the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal that Trump tore up. And both hosts question whether Western leaders — Starmer, Carney, and others — have anything resembling a plan to deal with the economic fallout hitting consumers at the pump and the grocery store.

Avi Lewis won the federal NDP leadership on the first ballot in Winnipeg with 56% of the vote. He's a documentary filmmaker, former CBC and Al Jazeera host, co-creator of the Leap Manifesto, and — as Andrew helpfully notes — a complete loon politically, though surely a lovely chap. His platform: nationalize groceries, nationalize telecoms, build a million public homes, do banking through Canada Post, slap a wealth tax on the rich, tax oil and gas exports, and invest 2% of GDP in climate action. It's the most aggressively left federal platform in recent memory, and it won over about 40,000 NDP members who apparently liked what they heard. Joseph and Andrew debate whether this is a stroke of genius or a spectacular miscalculation. The Corbyn comparison gets a full workout — and the part people forget is that Corbyn nearly won before he got crushed. Provincial NDP leaders started running for the exits within minutes. And the question nobody can answer yet: is there actually a market for left-wing populism in Canada, or has the NDP just made itself irrelevant to everyone except degree-educated urbanites who were already voting for them? Story 2: "Go Get Your Own Oil"Coming Up Trump told the UK — by name — to either buy American oil or "build up some delayed courage" and secure the Strait of Hormuz. Hegseth mocked the Royal Navy for good measure. Andrew walks through the UK's North Sea drilling fight: Labour banned new exploration licences, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband won't budge, and the Conservatives and Reform are hammering the government with a simple question voters understand — why won't you let us use our own oil? The economics say it wouldn't move prices much. The politics say it doesn't matter. Joseph and Andrew find common ground on the deeper problem: Western allies spent more energy punching Trump than engaging with the opportunity to confront Iran, and now everyone's paying for it — literally, at the pump. The conversation gets frank about what Europe and Canada left on the table. Part two drops later this week with a full breakdown of the war in Iran once Trump has addressed the nation. Joseph and Andrew are also lining up future episodes on Australia's populist wave and the post-war regional power rebalancing.

Tim Kiladze is a financial reporter and columnist at the Globe and Mail. His recent long-form feature — "Out of nowhere, Canada became poorer than Alabama" — went viral with over five million views on X and triggered a debate about Canadian competitiveness. Tim joined us to walk through what he actually found on the ground in Alabama, why the piece touched a nerve, and what Canada and the UK should take from it. What We Covered Tim explains why the piece almost didn't happen — the Canada-Alabama GDP comparison first circulated in 2024, then got buried by the trade war and federal election. He'd always wondered whether the stat was real, pitched the story, and the editors sent him south. What he found in Huntsville didn't match any Canadian stereotype of Alabama. The city sits in the foothills of the Appalachians, looks like Vermont from the mayor's office, and the dominant car in the biotech research park parking lot was a Subaru Outback. Mayor Tommy Battle, a real estate guy turned politician, has spent years rebranding the city as "Huntsville: a smart place" — complete with lapel pins. Tim walks through Alabama's economic transformation, starting with Mercedes-Benz arriving in 1993 and triggering a cascade of auto manufacturers — Honda, Hyundai, Mazda, Toyota — that now produce nearly as many vehicles as Ontario. He met Greg Canfield, the state's former commerce secretary, who candidly acknowledged that Alabama's early tax incentives were unsustainably generous and had to be reformed. The key insight from Canfield: speed to market matters more than anything. Companies putting capital at risk want to earn it back fast, and Alabama let them build quickly. That led to a discussion about Canada's regulatory environment. Joseph flagged the Enbridge pipeline refusal — the same week the piece came out, Enbridge said it wouldn't participate in the proposed Alberta-to-Pacific pipeline. Tim went further, noting that even people involved with major Canadian projects told him privately, in the last couple of weeks, that they don't know if their projects will get built. The variable nobody talks about enough, he said, is the courts — duty to consult rulings, judicial reviews, and First Nations groups that have learned to use legal processes to slow or stop development. Andrew drew parallels to the regeneration of Greenville, South Carolina and northwestern Arkansas, and raised a critical constraint: the bond markets. The US can run a nearly $2 trillion annual deficit because of the dollar's reserve status. Canada and the UK simply can't play that game — as Britain learned during the Liz Truss mini-budget. Andrew also pushed back on the idea that southern US strategies are directly transferable, noting that lower union protections, weaker worker rights, and minimal safety nets are politically unacceptable in the UK and Canada regardless of which party is in power. Tim acknowledged all of this but kept returning to a central point: Canada hides behind its morals. Public healthcare and public education are things he firmly believes in — but his kids' school in Toronto looks like a bomb shelter, and when he tried to get a wall painted through the parent council, he hit union rules and red tape. The healthcare system has the same problem: COVID exposed that the bottleneck was nurses and ICU beds, and years later, the nursing crisis persists. The conversation closed on the question of what's actually learnable. Tim's answer: use tax policy selectively, build a brand again, and stop expecting investment to come to us. Andrew's answer: get past the reflexive anti-Americanism that prevents honest assessment of what's working south of the border.

Lord Walney joins the show to discuss his new 100-page report, Undue Influence, which documents a network of as many as 30 charities, cultural centres, and religious institutions in Britain with alleged ties to the Iranian regime. The report examines 10 charities in depth — eight of which are under active Charity Commission investigation — and argues that the network has avoided serious scrutiny because regulators and officials feared being accused of racism. Walney walks through the evidence, including a charity whose governing document required a trustee appointed by Iran's Supreme Leader, and explains why the UK's failure to proscribe the IRGC leaves the regulatory system unable to address the core problem. The conversation also covers the UK government's newly announced Charity Commission powers and the risks posed by a proposed definition of anti-Muslim hostility. Walney's report identifies a network of Iranian-aligned organisations operating as registered charities in the UK. Four of the 10 charities examined qualify for Gift Aid — three of those are under active investigation. The Islamic Centre of England is described as a "central node" in the network. Until recently, its governing document required a trustee appointed by Iran's Supreme Leader. A former Charity Commission chair admitted that fear of racism allegations made the regulator reluctant to pursue investigations into these organisations. The Charity Commission's framework focuses on governance and compliance — not ideological alignment with hostile states — creating what Walney calls a "compliance trap." The UK government announced new Charity Commission powers to tackle extremism, timed closely with the report's release. Walney welcomes the announcement but says political leadership and culture change are needed to make it meaningful. The UK still has not proscribed the IRGC — unlike Canada, the US, the EU, Sweden, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. Walney argues proscription would make it significantly easier to shut down related activity. A new UK government definition of anti-Muslim hostility risks compounding the chilling effect that has already prevented action on Islamist extremism, though Walney notes efforts have been made to protect freedom of speech within it. 00:00 — Introduction and context: the Iran conflict and Walney's report01:29 — Andrew introduces Lord Walney03:39 — What does the Iranian charity network actually do?06:16 — Charities on the front line of pro-regime protests07:25 — Why has nobody dealt with this?11:22 — Political leadership and the tools gap at the Charity Commission13:16 — The Islamic Centre of England as "central node"15:04 — How embedded is the regime's influence?17:50 — The double standard: Islamist vs. far-right extremism19:38 — University links, IRGC recruitment, and the proscription gap22:46 — Response to the report: legal threats and personal risk27:45 — New Charity Commission powers: enough or window dressing?31:10 — The proposed anti-Muslim hostility definition and its risks37:30 — Why charity networks matter when drones are hitting British bases40:49 — Defending democracy: final reflections

The war in Iran is 11 days old and the picture is shifting fast. A new supreme leader, an oil blockade threat, and Trump calling the whole thing a "little excursion" — Joseph and Andrew unpack why the conversation about international law feels so one-sided. Plus: the EU quietly drops a protectionist bombshell that nobody seems to want to call by its name, and Carney's Indo-Pacific tour delivers billions in announcements but can any of it replace what's at stake with the US? The guys close with the latest Canadian polling — and why the Liberals might regret winning back their majority. The Iran war didn't start on February 28. The regime has been at war with its own people — and with the West — for 47 years. Treating the US-Israeli strikes as Day 1 skips a step. International law is being selectively invoked. Nobody marched when Hamas crossed a sovereign border. Nobody marched when the regime massacred tens of thousands of its own citizens in January. The outrage only shows up when the West acts. The opposition from the right (isolationism, cost) is different from the opposition on the left (the regime as victim). Both are wrong, but for very different reasons. Carney's initial statement was the right call — clear, decisive, among the most hawkish of any world leader. His walkback was driven by caucus management, not conviction. Starmer's response was embarrassing. A mix of lawyerly caution, Iraq hangover, and pandering to sectarian politics after a by-election loss to the Greens. It damaged the special relationship at exactly the wrong moment. The EU's Industrial Accelerator Act is tariffs by another name. Macron called Trump's tariffs destructive. Now the EU is doing the same thing and calling it resilience. Everyone's a hypocrite on trade. Carney's Indo-Pacific tour was impressive in presentation and announceables. But none of it replaces the US trade relationship — it's points of a percent versus multiple points of GDP. The Liberal lead over the Conservatives has grown to 14 points. Poilievre's tone is evolving, but he's fighting a caricature that won't shift overnight — especially with Trump in the White House as a contrast. 00:00 — Welcome back!00:30 — Iran: new supreme leader, oil weaponised, Trump's mixed signals02:57 — Andrew on the regime's 47-year war and the hypocrisy of international law04:48 — Nobody invoked international law on October 706:07 — Right-wing isolationism vs. left-wing moral inversion07:41 — The regime as imperialist — anti-imperialists supporting imperialism08:00 — Andrew on the hierarchy of evil and the hard left's blind spots11:33 — The domestic threat: IRGC activity in Canada, FBI warnings13:01 — Regime change vs. containment — what's the realistic outcome?15:40 — Can the Iranian people actually overthrow the regime?17:23 — Intelligence infiltration and psychological damage to the regime18:07 — Carney's flip-flop and Starmer's embarrassing response19:04 — Andrew on Starmer: Iraq hangover, sectarian politics, and the special relationship24:29 — Was Carney's walkback driven by Liberal caucus pressure?25:21 — Andrew's rant: we can't bring ourselves to say taking out this regime is a good thing27:30 — Story 2: The EU's "Made in Europe" Act — protectionism dressed up as policy30:25 — Andrew: everyone's a hypocrite on trade33:13 — Why anti-Trump framing lets the EU get away with it34:17 — Should the UK try to get in on Made in Europe?35:44 — Story 3: Carney's Indo-Pacific tour — India, Australia, Japan37:13 — Andrew: great announceables, but it doesn't replace the US39:37 — The real test is what happens with trade south40:24 — Chart of the week: Liberals lead Conservatives by 14 points43:03 — Poilievre's evolving tone — is it too late?45:29 — Andrew: Canadians want a contrast to Trump, not a copy46:50 — The NDP leadership race nobody's watching47:55 — Wrap

A new report from Digital Public Square and Abacus Data surveyed 2,250 Canadians on polarization — and the findings challenge some assumptions. Two-thirds of Canadians place themselves in the political centre. But when asked how they feel about people on the other side, the picture shifts dramatically. We dig into why the left is better at disliking the right than vice versa, why younger Canadians are more open to leaders who bend the rules, and what can actually be done about it. Key Takeaways Canada's polarization problem is primarily affective — Canadians aren't far apart on the spectrum, but they've developed strong negative feelings toward the other side. Even one step left or right of centre triggers in-group/out-group dynamics. The hostility is asymmetrical. Slightly left-of-centre Canadians view the right more negatively than slightly right-of-centre Canadians view the left. The far right is more likely to believe their views represent the majority. When elections don't reflect that, it feeds a sense of injustice and conspiratorial thinking. The "Civic Optimists" — Canadians most satisfied with democracy — skew heavily 55+. Younger Canadians are more cynical, more right-leaning, and more open to illiberal tactics. But they're also the strongest defenders of minority rights. Digital Public Square has been testing interventions that correct misperceptions about the other side, with early experimental evidence showing it builds empathy. Chapters 00:00 — Cold open00:33 — Introduction: polarization in Canada and the UK02:14 — Affective vs. ideological polarization05:42 — The shifting definition of "the middle"08:13 — Political identity beyond politics: culture, sports, media12:28 — Who Canadians blame for polarization13:40 — Why the left is better at disliking the right16:24 — The far right's majority perception problem21:12 — The six segments: Frustrated Pessimists, Civic Optimists, and more27:20 — Young Canadians and the appetite for rule-bending leaders30:10 — What actually works: DPS interventions and evidence36:19 — Electoral reform debate — and Andrew's European pushback43:51 — Put the phone down and go to the pub Links Full report: digitalpublicsquare.org DPS Substack: dpsorg.substack.com

This week on Craft Politics, a sneak peek from Joseph's new show, Masters in Public Affairs.Episode 3 goes deep on Frank Luntz's Words That Work — the book that argues your message doesn't matter nearly as much as what your audience does with it after it leaves your mouth.In this episode:- Why Henry Kissinger's biggest regret was a word he didn't chooseThe core principle: communication is determined by the receiver, not the sender- How single-word changes moved public opinion by double digits- Four mental models for designing messages that actually land- Where practitioners misread Luntz — and the honest limits of language- How this connects to Lippmann and McRaney from earlier in the seriesAbout Masters in Public Affairs:A new show where Joseph goes deep on one foundational book per episode, extracts the durable ideas, and translates them into mental models public affairs practitioners can use. If you enjoy this episode, subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

The week started with breaking news: CPC MP Matt Jeneroux crosses the floor to join the Liberal caucus — the third Conservative to do so in recent months. Joseph and Andrew unpack what it means for the Liberals' path to a majority, whether it takes a 2026 election off the table, and why Mark Carney keeps defying conventional political logic. Then, Canada's new defence industrial strategy gets the full treatment: half a trillion dollars in procurement, 70% Canadian content targets, and the messy gap between announcements and delivery. The episode closes across the pond, where Keir Starmer has now executed over a dozen major U-turns — including reversing a plan to delay local elections, days after promising no more reversals. Joseph and Andrew compare approval ratings that tell two very different stories about what non-politician leaders look like when they work, and when they don't. Key Takeaways - Matt Jeneroux's floor crossing puts the Liberals within striking distance of a one-seat majority, pending three outstanding by-elections — one of which was previously decided by a single vote. - With a potential majority in reach and strong polling, the political case for a 2026 snap election is weaker than it was a week ago; Carney appears more interested in building a track record than capitalizing on a polling window. - Canada's new defense industrial strategy earmarks over $500B in procurement, aims to hit NATO's 2% GDP target ahead of schedule, and sets a goal of 5% by 2035 — but the real test is whether a new procurement agency can cut through decades of dysfunction. - Carney's appointment of Janice Charette as chief trade negotiator with the U.S -- we're big fans. - Starmer's approval rating has hit record lows — negative 47% — worse than any sitting British prime minister in polling history; the contrast with Carney's numbers is striking and worth understanding. - The local elections U-turn is particularly damaging because it came days after Starmer explicitly ruled out more reversals; Reform UK forcing the government's hand via a legal challenge compounds the optics. Chapters 0:00 — Welcome back + Alberta deep dive reaction 1:30 — Matt Jeneroux crosses the floor: what it means and why the Liberals wanted him 5:00 — Updated election outlook: is 2026 still happening? 8:30 — Mark Carney's governing style and why he keeps defying political convention 10:30 — Janice Charette named Canada's chief U.S. trade negotiator 14:00 — Canada's defense industrial strategy: half a trillion dollars and 70% Canadian procurement 19:30 — Keir Starmer reverses course on local elections — U-turn number 12+ 23:30 — Approval ratings compared: Carney vs. Starmer 29:00 — Tumbler Ridge, partisan unity, and a moment worth noticing 32:00 — Wrap-up Keywords Matt Jeneroux floor crossing, Canadian federal politics 2026, Mark Carney majority, Liberal caucus, Canadian defense procurement, NATO spending Canada, Janice Charette, trade negotiator, Canada-US relations, Keir Starmer U-turns, UK local elections 2025, Starmer approval ratings, Reform UK, Craft Politics podcast

Alberta may be heading toward a citizen-initiated referendum on independence from Canada. Dave Cournoyer — who has covered Alberta politics for over two decades — joins Joseph and Andrew to unpack how the province's separatist movement evolved from a fringe cottage industry into an organized force embedded within the governing United Conservative Party. The conversation covers the deep historical grievances between Alberta and Ottawa, how opposition to COVID-19 public health measures became the organizing catalyst for today's separatist groups, Premier Danielle Smith's increasingly difficult balancing act, and the urgent question at the centre of it all: who is going to lead the pro-Canada campaign — and do they even have the infrastructure to win?Takeaways- Alberta separatism isn't new, but this iteration is different. The current movement organized around opposition to COVID-19 public health measures, spent years building grassroots networks in rural Alberta, and has now embedded itself within the governing UCP's riding associations and activist base.- Pollster Janet Brown identifies three groups of Albertans on separation: roughly a quarter to a third who support it, a third who are unhappy with Ottawa but don't want to leave, and a quarter to a third who are firmly pro-Canada.- The Alberta Prosperity Project needs approximately 178,000 signatures by May to trigger a referendum. The pro-Canada Forever Canadian campaign collected 456,000 signatures — but a signature campaign and a referendum campaign are very different things.- Danielle Smith's "sovereign Alberta within a united Canada" positioning has worked so far, but a binary referendum question will force her to choose a side.- Three potential pro-Canada leaders have emerged — Thomas Lukaszuk, Jason Kenney, and Naheed Nenshi — but their relationships are fraught and there is no unified campaign infrastructure.- Andrew draws direct parallels to Brexit and Scotland's independence referendum: the leave side runs an aspirational campaign, the stay side gets trapped in "project fear," and a referendum legitimizes the question regardless of outcome.- Foreign interference is a serious wildcard. Separatist leaders have claimed meetings with the US State Department, and senior US officials have publicly commented on Alberta separatism.- Dave's assessment: a referendum held today would lose decisively. A referendum held 10 months from now, in an unpredictable campaign environment, is a different story entirely.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Alberta's Political Landscape02:50 Historical Grievances and Alberta's Identity05:42 The Trudeau Legacy and Its Impact on Alberta08:10 The Rise of Alberta Separatism11:11 The Role of the Alberta Prosperity Project13:46 Current Political Dynamics and the UCP16:47 Referendums as a Political Tool19:13 Future Implications for Alberta's Governance26:56 The Dangers of Referenda30:00 Legitimizing Separatism31:47 The Pro-Canada Campaign Challenge35:46 Key Figures in the Pro-Canada Movement39:59 Foreign Interference and Its Implications44:46 The Future of Alberta's Political Landscape

Holly's out this week. Andrew claims she's started a rival podcast called "Raft Politics." We soldier on anyway. What We Covered UK: Starmer's crumbling premiership. The Mandelson crisis has triggered a cascade — chief of staff gone, comms director gone, cabinet secretary potentially next. Scottish Labour's leader publicly called for Starmer to resign. The leadership contest seems to be happening already; Starmer just hasn't recognized he's toast. Andrew's take from the halls of Westminster: Labour MPs are depressed. Turns out governing is hard. Canada: Poilievre's leadership math problem. He secured 87.4% at the leadership review — no surprise. But his personal approval keeps dropping while party polling stays stable. Six in ten Canadians say they're satisfied with Carney. The question now: can Poilievre close that gap before Carney calls an election? Chart of the week: Polymarket on election timing. 44% chance of a Canadian election by June 30th — and trending up. We debate whether the Liberals should go early while the numbers look good, or whether snap elections have a way of backfiring spectacularly. (See: UK 2017.)

Quebec represents 23% of Canada's population and 20% of GDP. If it separated — which is back on the table for the first time in a generation — it would be like the UK losing Scotland, except with a larger economy. The last referendum in 1995? The "no" side won by 54,288 votes. Half a percent. Thirty years later, the separatist Parti Québécois is leading the polls with a commitment to hold another referendum by 2030. We brought in Kevin Paquette, a colleague at Crestview who was president of the CAQ youth wing during the party's rise, to make sense of what's actually happening. What We Covered The collapse of the third way. François Legault's CAQ offered Quebec nationalists a deal: protect the French language, get more autonomy, skip the referendum drama. The party went from 90 seats in 2022 to polling at near-extinction today. Support for the PQ doesn't mean support for sovereignty. Roughly 30% of current PQ voters would vote no in a referendum. People are parking votes with the PQ because they're fed up with everyone else. The Montreal-regions divide. Elections aren't won in Montreal. They're won in the francophone regions where people feel increasingly disconnected from a metropolitan core that doesn't share their lived experience. The Supreme Court wildcard. The upcoming decision on Bill 21 and the notwithstanding clause could hand the PQ a narrative that writes itself: we tried to make Canada work, and Canada said no. Key Insight Kevin's prediction: minority government, regardless of who wins. Both the CAQ and Liberals are picking new leaders months before the October 2026 election while the separatists cruise in the polls. A third referendum loss would end Quebec's leverage game with Ottawa permanently — which means nationalists may not actually want a referendum they might lose. Guest Kevin Paquette — public affairs consultant at Crestview Strategy, former CAQ youth wing president (2017–2019), and sharp observer of Quebec's regional-urban divide.

This week the team dissects Prime Minister Mark Carney's headline-grabbing Davos speech, Trump's inflammatory comments about NATO allies in Afghanistan, the Labour Party's decision to block Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election, and the continuing exodus of Conservative MPs to Reform UK. Plus: a deep dive into Trump's collapsing poll numbers across key demographics. Topics Covered 1. Carney's Davos Speech — A "Rupture, Not a Transition"Mark Carney delivered a major address at the World Economic Forum arguing the post-Cold War rules-based order is no longer functioning. He urged middle powers to band together, warning "if you're not at the table, you're on the menu." The speech earned a rare standing ovation and continues making headlines a week later. Andrew draws parallels to the pre-WWI environment: militarism, alliances, imperialism, nationalism, and significant individuals. 2. Trump Rewrites Afghanistan HistoryTrump claimed NATO allies "stayed a little back, a little off the front lines" in Afghanistan — a statement contradicted by the 457 British and 158 Canadian deaths in the conflict. The hosts note Article 5 has only ever been invoked once: by the United States after 9/11, with allies responding. The King reportedly reached out, and Trump has since walked back the comments. 3. Andy Burnham Blocked from By-ElectionLabour's NEC prevented Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in the Denton and Gorton by-election, citing the cost of a mayoral by-election. The hosts see it as a convenient mechanism to keep a potential Starmer rival out of Parliament — but note Labour may now lose the seat to Reform anyway. 4. Suella Braverman Defects to ReformFormer Home Secretary Suella Braverman became the third Conservative MP in a week to join Reform UK, following Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell. Holly notes her defection speech was notably polished and felt "authentic" given her long-held positions. 5. Trump's Polling CollapseJoseph shares data showing Trump losing support across nearly every demographic since 2024 — particularly among non-white voters and 18-29 year-olds. The hosts speculate whether the Minneapolis ICE retreat signals the first time Trump has recognized his base moving away from him on an issue. Word of the Week: "Big Daddy Carns"Coined during the 2025 campaign when a woman heckled Carney with "Lead us, Big Daddy!" — now shorthand for his blend of "cheeky, charming competence." Notable Quotes "The rules-based order has been dead for quite a while now... we've finally accepted it." "We're trying to rationalize something that's irrational. Disorder reigns." "The only time Article 5 has been used was in Afghanistan — by the United States."

Plus, Carney's pivot on China, and more Tory defections in the UK. The gang is back after a winter break—and they’re diving headfirst into the chaos that kicked off 2026. Joseph, Holly, and Andrew cover the escalating crisis over Trump’s Greenland obsession, a wave of Tory defections to Reform UK, Canada’s pivot to China, and some economic mood swings that don’t line up with the data. 🔥 In This Episode🧊 The Greenland Crisis Escalates- Trump threatens tariffs, floats military use, and posts AI images claiming US ownership- Is NATO broken beyond repair?- Why Canada and Europe may now have to act like middle powers—for real- “Trump always chickens out” or “this time it’s real”?🇨🇦 Canada’s Pivot to China- Mark Carney strikes a historic tariff deal with China- EVs and canola in, geopolitical certainty… TBD- What it signals about the new world order—and how Doug Ford feels about it🏛 UK Defections & Tory Discipline- Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell jump ship to Reform- Kemi Badenoch clamps down: decisive leadership or brand dilution?- What this means for the future of Reform—and the shape of the Conservative Party📉 Vibes vs. Reality- Consumer confidence is up among younger voters—while older voters are gloomier than ever- Is this a vibescession or just a new kind of political identity?⸻🧠 Quick HitsWord of the Week:Vibescession — The economic slowdown that exists mostly in public perception.Number of the Week:$125 million — The estimated cost of renaming the US Department of Defense to the Department of War. Because priorities.🎙 Featuring:Joseph LavoieHolly Mumby-CroftAndrew Percy Photo by Visit Greenland on Unsplash

It’s our final episode of 2025 — and we’re going out with a bang (and a beer). Joseph, Holly, and Andrew reunite after a winter bug-induced hiatus to bring you our first-ever year-end special. We make bold predictions (that we’ll surely regret), hand out highly scientific year-end awards, play games, roast each other’s beer tasting notes, and toast to the chaos that was. It’s everything you’d expect from Craft Politics — unfiltered, occasionally insightful, and always a bit ridiculous. 🗳 Rapid-Fire Reflections: One word to sum up the political year? Fruitless, chaotic… and a bit shit. The story everyone thinks they understood? Doug Ford’s World Series ad Trump’s tariffs Labour’s tax strategy — and still nobody gets it. What we’re all pretending won’t matter in 2026, but will? Alberta separatism UK house prices defence spending… and apparently, Andrew’s age. 🔹 Serious Predictions: Canada heads to the polls — and the Conservatives win (Joseph) Conservative leadership could change… in Canada (Andrew) Reform UK will peak in spring… then fade (Holly) 🌶 Spicy Predictions: The Parti Québécois doesn’t win in Quebec — CAQ makes a surprise comeback (Joseph) Zack Polanski’s meteoric Green Party rise hits a bump (Holly) Something very spicy happens in Labour ranks (Andrew… vaguely) 🕵️‍♀️ Quiet Shifts to Watch: Canada’s election becomes about chaos vs. control Doug Ford and Donald Trump become unlikely friends Joseph steps down from the podcast due to… “an incident” 📊 Real Headline or Fake? Doug Ford on The Amazing Race? Signal-gate? Andrew Percy in the Lords? Let’s just say, trust no one — especially Grockipedia. 🗣️ Who Said It? “I don’t particularly want to wipe someone’s bum” “The best is yet to come… get the bungee harness ready” “I originally saw AI as an efficiency gain. I was wrong.” (Many of your favourites are quoted, willingly or not.) 🍺 Beer Notes or Erotic Fiction? Andrew and Holly put Joseph’s Untappd beer reviews under the microscope. Did he really say a beer had a “beautiful head”? Yes. Did he really sneak one into a soccer match? Also yes. Did any of it make sense? You be the judge 🏆 Year-End Awards Most Predictable Surprise: Angela Rayner resigns Best Attempt at Spin: Signal-gate Worst Use of a Chart: Lib Dems still doing Lib Dem things Phrase We Never Want to Hear Again: “Looks gorgeous. Tastes like a marvel.”

The team is back in London — Joseph is enjoying the rare British sunshine, while Holly and Andrew are soaking up the political chaos. This week, we unpack the Labour government’s tough week of headlines and hard truths: from a post-budget messaging mess to a controversial shake-up of the UK justice system — and a surprise pipeline agreement in Canada. 📉 Labour’s Budget Blunders: ‘Did She Mislead the Public?’ We revisit last week’s autumn budget after a week of unravelling Rachel Reeves is under pressure over whether she misrepresented the fiscal headroom Communications have spiralled into a defensive posture: “Did she lie?” becomes the only story Holly shares her three-day rule: every budget turns to chaos within 72 hours — and this one delivered ⚖️ Trial Without Jury? The Justice Reform Turning Heads David Lammy’s proposal to remove jury trials for offences under 3 years sparks a major backlash Critics say it’s an attack on a centuries-old principle — and unlikely to solve case backlogs Andrew questions whether judges are being politicized, while Holly warns of a “slippery slope” Joseph notes this is another Labour announcement suffering from poor rollout and zero preconditioning 🇨🇦 Alberta’s Pipeline Deal with Ottawa: Real Progress or Political Cover? Joseph breaks down the new MOU between Alberta and the federal government The deal sets the stage for a new west coast pipeline — without consulting BC Premier Eby is furious, Carney is betting big, and Danielle Smith is walking a tightrope Andrew and Holly react to whether this kind of high-stakes, nation-building compromise could ever work in UK politics We almost had a new entry for “Lipstick on a Gerbil” — our regular feature on political spin — but in the spirit of seasonal generosity, Andrew suggests giving UK ministers a break…for now.

With Celia McSwaine & Christine Quigley The Labour government dropped its first full budget — and everyone’s claiming victory… or crying foul. This week, Joseph and Andrew are joined by Celia McSwaine (former Treasury SpAd) and Christine Quigley (Labour strategist) to unpack what it all means: from fiscal drag and frozen thresholds to the abolition of the two-child benefit cap and Kemi Badenoch’s show-stealing rebuttal. We cover the politics, the process, and the problems still ahead. 💸 In This Episode: 📊 Labour’s Balancing Act • “A budget where everyone gets something… and everyone pays for it.” • Massive welfare spend, frozen tax thresholds, and the return of fiscal drag • Why the OBR, not the Commons, may be in charge now 👶 The Two-Child Benefit Cap Is Gone • Labour says it will lift 450,000 children out of poverty • Critics say it penalizes middle earners and disincentivizes work • Is this Labour morality — or Labour survival? 🎭 Budget Theatre: Kemi’s Big Moment • Rachel Reeves made history — and played it safe • Kemi Badenoch’s “call and response” rebuttal caught fire on social media • From “mansplaining” to broken promises: who landed the bigger punch? 🧮 Behind the Curtain: How Budgets Get Made • Celia McSwaine shares what it’s really like crafting a UK budget • Why Rachel Reeves leaked everything • And how “death by a thousand cuts” might come back to bite ⸻ 🗞 Headlines of the Week: • The Sun: “Benefit Street Budget” • The Telegraph: “A Spiteful Raid on Middle England” • The Mirror: “A Budget with a Labour Heart” • The Daily Star: “The Budget That Stole Christmas”

With special guest Alex MuirIn this week’s interview edition, Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy sit down with Canadian-American pollster and strategist Alex Muir to map out the real factions driving the MAGA movement — and why Canada is dangerously unprepared for a second Trump administration.Muir doesn’t pull punches.“The America we grew up with doesn’t exist anymore. In the same way that the Canada I grew up in doesn’t exist anymore.”⸻🔥 In This Episode📌 The Seven MAGA FactionsAlex walks us through the internal tribes of the America First movement — including: • MAGA Populists • Institutional MAGA • Traditional Business Conservatives • Tech Libertarians • Christian Nationalists • Isolationists & Neocons • The Family Court (Trump’s inner circle)🧠 Shared Beliefs That Bind ThemFrom the branding genius of Make America Great Again to the cultural rage at a world that “disrespects” America, Alex explains:“Foreigners need to know their place.”🧊 The Chilling Truth for CanadaDespite trade, shared security, and years of goodwill:“Canada doesn’t have leverage. It has convenience value.”🇨🇦 What Canada Gets Wrong • Canadian politicians assume a return to “normal” is inevitable • The embassy lacks deep MAGA relationships • Most outreach is happening in the wrong cities (DC, NY, LA)“They don’t care about Canada. They don’t think they need to.”⸻🎯 Hard Truths About Trump 2.0Unlike the first time: • They’re ready to govern • They’ve written executive orders in advance • They’ve mapped out personnel, departments, and state-level pipelines“Trump is no longer isolated in Washington.”And if you think this all ends when Trump does:“The next thing will be more ideological, more effective — and worse for Canada.”⸻💡 A Strategic Wake-Up CallAlex shares a clear message for Canada:“Want the Trump administration’s attention? Have you considered buying $100 million of his crypto?”…And why the work to build relationships must start now, especially with: • CPAC • Heritage Action • Turning Point • The Danube Institute • Texas & Florida power bases

This week’s episode runs the gamut: from house prices in freefall, to Labour’s immigration U-turn, to what the hell is going on in Parliament (again). We also say a bittersweet goodbye to one U.S. Congressman — and welcome a rare, almost-sincere apology from Marjorie Taylor Greene in our Lipstick on a Gerbil segment.Pour a pint and let’s get into it.⸻🏠 1. UK Housing Market WobblesNew data shows UK house prices down 1.8%, the steepest drop for this time of year in over a decade. But why is it happening?We discuss: • How Labour’s leak-heavy pre-budget chaos is rattling consumer confidence • Stamp duty, council tax rumours, and interest rate anxiety • Whether this is just a London story — or a warning for the rest of the UKIt’s either a sh*t sandwich, or a sh*t sandwich they’re not even going to eat. Either way, the market smells it.⸻🧾 2. Immigration Reform… or Reform Panic?Labour has unveiled sweeping immigration changes, including: • Temporary refugee status with 2.5-year reviews • A 20-year path to permanent residency • Faster deportations for failed asylum claims — including familiesBut within 24 hours, Labour backbenchers revolted, and critics from all sides questioned the policy’s credibility and intent.We ask: • Is this a strategic pivot to undercut Reform UK? • Will voters believe Labour means it? • Or does it just look like panic from a party still at war with itself?They’ve got a huge majority, and still… no one’s buying it.⸻🇺🇸 3. Burnout in the House: Jared Golden Steps DownCongressman Jared Golden (D-ME) announced his retirement, citing growing incivility and toxicity in American politics.We reflect on: • The real mental health toll of public office • Why more good people are leaving • How algorithmic outrage and polarization are reshaping political discourseWe’re not losing just politicians — we’re losing the ones we actually need to stay.⸻💄 Lipstick on a Gerbil: Marjorie Taylor Greene Says Sorry… Sort OfIn a surprising CNN interview, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene issued a rare apology for her years of toxic rhetoric.We debate: • Is this a real change — or just a rebrand now that she’s on the receiving end? • Can former provocateurs actually help de-escalate politics? • And does a Southern accent make it sound more sincere?🧴 1 Coat Across the BoardIt’s a start. But let’s see if she keeps the room tidy for six months.

This week, we tackle the institution that’s cracking (the BBC), the leader who’s spending (Mark Carney), and the conservative premier who’s somehow breaking hearts and polling records (Doug Ford). Also, Prince Harry makes a surprise appearance… in our Lipstick on a Gerbil segment. 🏚 1. BBC on the Brink We break down the resignation of BBC’s Director-General, Tim Davie, following a firestorm of scandals — including: A Panorama edit that deceptively spliced Trump’s speech Allegations of editorial bias on the Middle East and trans issues A crushing internal report that reveals the public broadcaster has lost trust across the political spectrum We debate whether the BBC has become the UK’s next great institutional casualty — and ask: Is this the moment it becomes the CBC of British politics? “You don’t just lose public trust with bias — you lose it with smugness.” 💸 2. Canada’s Budget Gets Derailed by… Polievre? It was supposed to be the biggest budget in a generation — but you wouldn’t know it based on the political headlines. Instead, the story has been: Two MPs leave Pierre Poilievre’s caucus Allegations his office used oppo research to threaten MPs A leadership review coming in January “The budget is a footnote in a week of internal Conservative chaos.” We ask: Does this damage Poilievre’s image as a PM-in-waiting? Why is no one talking about the record-breaking deficit? And is anyone in Canadian politics actually focused on cost of living? 📈 3. Doug Ford: Ontario’s Unshakeable Premier Despite Ontario’s controversial World Series ad (which British Columbia has since scrapped), Doug Ford’s numbers haven’t budged — still holding at 51% in the polls. Holly calls him “a retail politician with Riz.” Andrew rolls his eyes. Joseph asks why more federal conservatives aren’t learning from him. “He’s my Roman Empire.” – Holly We ask: What explains his Teflon approval rating? Has Ford actually cracked the political code — or is the bar just really low? 💄 Lipstick on a Gerbil: Prince Harry’s Baseball Apology When Prince Harry wore an LA Dodgers cap during a Jays game, Canada had questions. His response? Self-deprecating charm. Bald jokes. And a gentle “go Jays.” 3 coats across the board. “Sometimes we forget: not every controversy needs a communications war room.”

Budget Season, Housing Scandals & Populist Snapbacks Joseph’s in a bad mood. Andrew’s six minutes late. Holly’s podcasting from a cow-filled Cumbrian farm. And somehow, this chaotic start perfectly mirrors the week in politics we’re about to unpack. In this week’s Issue Scan, we tackle three big stories⸻ 💸 1. Carney’s Budget of Austerity (Without Saying “Austerity”) We preview Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first federal budget, which the Liberals are billing as transformational — but may look a lot like a cutback budget with better PR. • Spending cuts to government operations • Big promises on defense, trade and climate • An electorate with zero patience and plummeting expectations “It’s starting to feel like Canadians don’t want change — they want certainty.” We debate: • Is this a red-tinted version of David Cameron’s ‘Age of Austerity’? • Will progressive voters tolerate fiscal discipline? • And what happens if the elbow-throwing on trade still doesn’t land a deal with Trump? 🏘 2. Rachel Reeves’ Rental Row: A Crisis of DetailThe UK Chancellor has a problem: two letters, one missed license, and a husband who didn’t “sort it.” We break down: • The timeline of the scandal • What it reveals about Labour’s growing housing PR headache • And why this is more than just “admin error” Lipstick on a Gerbil Score: 🧴 1 coat — “She said she took responsibility. But mostly blamed everyone else.”“If this were a Tory, Labour would have eaten them alive. But now? Just more letters on Starmer’s desk.” 🇳🇱 3. Dutch Election Surprise: Populists Rejected? Andrew brings us a European update as the Dutch electorate gives populism a timeout — rejecting Geert Wilders and rewarding centrist parties. • What went wrong for the populists this time? • Is this a snapback to the centre or a one-off? • And what could it mean for Farage-style politics elsewhere? Populists won power, disappointed voters, and got punished. So what comes next?”

From the UK’s disastrous week under Labour to a major trade gaffe (or not?) in Canada, and Doug Ford’s surprising turn as global spokesman for tariffs and Reaganomics — we unpack a week of political faceplants, media spin, and near perfect lipstick jobs.⸻🧨 1. A Week in the Life of a Labour PMOne tweet said it all.Six political scandals. One week. And a mounting sense that Keir Starmer’s government is spiralling: • Botched handling of the Maccabi fan ban • Immigration failures (again) • Rape gang inquiry collapses • Labour loses its own seat in Wales • Starmer caught in a China fib • An Epping sex offender goes AWOLWe ask: Is this just governing as usual? Or has Labour lost the plot just one year into its mandate?“This feels like third-term fatigue… but it’s only year one.”⸻🗳 2. Labour Gets Wrecked in WalesA shock by-election in Caerphilly saw Labour collapse to 11%.Plaid Cymru won, Reform surged to second — and Farage is claiming “main challenger” status.We break down: • What the Welsh result tells us about progressive alliances • Whether Reform has a hard ceiling • And why Labour MPs are already talking like they’ve lost“They’ve only got the cards they’ve got — and we’ve seen what’s in that deck.”⸻🇨🇦 3. Ontario’s World Series Ad Bombs Trade TalksPremier Doug Ford ran a $75M ad campaign during the World Series — using Ronald Reagan’s words to shame Trump’s tariffs.Trump responded by escalating tariffs. Negotiations collapsed. The Reagan Foundation called it misinformation.We debate: • Was this political genius… or tactical self-sabotage? • Who was the ad really for — Trump or Ontarians? • And did Mark Carney know it was coming?“It smells like genius… but I’m not smart enough to understand why.”⸻💄 Lipstick on a Gerbil: Doug Ford Defends the AdIn our favourite comms segment, we rate Ford’s CNN appearance defending the ad.Was he playing 4D chess, or just trying to out-Trump Trump?Our verdict:🧴🧴🧴 Three coats — Warm, confident, and weirdly likeable.⸻📩 Subscribe or listen at craftpolitics.fm🎧 Available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube & Substack

🧨 1. Maccabi Tel Aviv Fan Ban: Judenfrei by Policing? When Aston Villa banned Israeli fans from attending their upcoming UEFA fixture, citing security risks, it sparked outrage — and raised serious questions. Why did local UK officials capitulate to pressure from anti-Israel campaigners? How did Birmingham end up, as Andrew puts it, “effectively declared Judenfrei”? What does this mean for sport as a safe and unifying space? “If you threaten violence, you win. That’s the message. It’s shameful.” 🇬🇧 2. Blaming Brexit — Labour’s Budget Pre-Spin Ahead of the UK’s autumn budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves claims Brexit, austerity, and productivity slumps have created a deep funding hole. We debate: Is this a smart preconditioning move — or a dangerous misread of voters? Are Labour making Reform’s case for them? And how long can you keep blaming decisions from eight years ago? “They’re telling voters they were stupid. Farage couldn’t have scripted it better.” 🇨🇦 3. Poilievre’s RCMP Blunder — Just Off the Cuff? Pierre Poilievre is on cleanup duty after comments he made accusing the RCMP of covering up Trudeau-era scandals. He says it was aimed at former commissioner Brenda Lucki — not the force itself. But the damage may already be done. Was it an off-the-cuff moment of honesty or a Trump-style overreach? Is it alienating swing voters just when the Tories should be widening their appeal? And what does it say about how Poilievre handles comfort-zone media? “He needs to be most careful when he’s most comfortable.” 💄 Lipstick on a Gerbil: Penny Wong Defends Trump’s Takedown of Kevin Rudd In our favourite comms segment, we rate Australia’s Foreign Minister as she tries to explain away Donald Trump’s brutal dismissal of Ambassador (and ex-PM) Kevin Rudd: Our rating? 🧴 One coat — Barely concealed, pivoted well, but we’re not buying it. “I don’t like him… and I probably never will.”

Guest: Dan Robertson, former Conservative strategist & founder of ORB Advocacy This week, Joseph and Holly are joined by long-time conservative strategist Dan Robertson, who has an unconventional set of ideas: Canada’s Conservative Party can’t out-campaign a system rigged against it. Dan’s solution? Structural reform. In a recent op-ed, he outlines three controversial but compelling ideas to level the playing field—and maybe even turn the Tories into a true national contender again. 1. Proportional Representation Why the “first past the post” system doesn’t actually benefit conservatives How PR could eliminate the Liberals’ advantage in voter efficiency And why Canada’s system keeps millions of centre-right votes from counting at all “I’d love to see conservatives champion competition everywhere—except in politics. It makes no sense.” 2. Mandatory Voting Why the right underperforms in low-turnout elections A civic case for participation as a duty of citizenship And what Australia can teach Canada about centre-right success in a compulsory voting system “This is the bare minimum of civic service. If we believe in responsibility, this is a no-brainer.” 3. A New Strategy for Quebec Dan proposes the unthinkable: Fold the federal Conservative brand in Quebec Instead, back a CAQ-style provincial-federal hybrid party And model a new electoral coalition—just like the CDU–CSU in Germany. “In Quebec, we’re foreigners. It’s not ideological. It’s tribal. We need to rethink everything.” 🎧 Plus: Could these reforms actually help turnout? Why voter apathy might be structural, not cultural And how to build a cross-partisan case for political reform, even on the right

Joseph is back, Andrew has a cold, Holly has green tea — and the Craft Politics crew takes on three major stories reshaping the political map: peace in Gaza, Canada’s economic pivot, and Britain’s inflation problem. 🧭 What’s Inside: 🇮🇱 20 Hostages Freed — Can Trump Deliver Peace in Gaza? All living hostages have been returned after 738 days in captivity Trump takes centre stage in the peace process — with the kind of leverage few global leaders can summon Holly, Andrew, and Joseph debate whether this moment is a turning point or a temporary pause in a brutal conflict “Let’s not underestimate what Trump has already achieved in returning the hostages. That’s a phenomenal and important win.” 🌍 Canada’s Climate Pivot & the India Reset Ottawa hints at a climate competitiveness strategy focused on jobs over targets Carney’s Liberals soften the climate line, downplay emissions caps, and seek Alberta buy-in At the same time, Canada and India agree to reset diplomatic relations after a two-year rupture “You can feel the contrast with the Trudeau era. There’s a shift toward pragmatism—jobs, trade, and economic security.” 💸 Britain’s Inflation Warning: Highest in the G7 (Again) IMF says UK inflation will outpace every other G7 country through 2026 Food, hospitality, and taxes are driving the pressure Kemi’s Tories pitch tax relief and spending restraint — but will anyone buy it? “You’re paying more tax but getting worse services. That’s why inflation feels higher than it is.” 💄 Lipstick on a Gerbil: Melanie Joly Spins the Stalled Trump Talks Canada’s Industry Minister tries to explain what the second visit to the White House has produced — and comes up short. “One and a half coats. Solid performance, but there’s only so many times you can say we’re still talking.”

With Andrew Percy, Holly Mumby-Croft & guest roving reporter Antony Higginbotham Joseph’s away, so the adults are off-duty — and the former MPs are in charge. In this special Tory Party Conference edition, Andrew and Holly are joined by their old colleague (and flatmate) Antony Higginbotham — back from the ground in Manchester with gossip, grit, and grim assessments of where the Conservative Party stands post-election. 🧭 What’s Inside: 🚪 Low turnout, low energy, lower expectations This year’s Tory conference felt like a wake: fewer lobbyists, fewer ministers, and… fewer rumours Some MPs showed up to mourn; others showed up to rebuild Shadow ministers name-dropped Kemi, but were they really rallying around her? “If the Tory Party has stopped producing good gossip… that may be the most dangerous sign yet.” 💥 Still relevant? Or a brand waiting to be rebought? Antony offers a brutal but honest diagnosis: The party may be down — but if the Woolworths model holds, it’s still salvageable. Eventually. “No one trusts the policies or the people—but the brand still has residual value.” 📉 A generational void and the candidate drought Too few safe seats to attract serious talent Too many 2024 losers who only want to return if they get a guarantee A pipeline problem for any future right-of-centre government “We’ll need to form a government with people who aren’t even MPs yet — and that’s a problem.” 💬 The reform shadow, Kemi’s moment, and leadership gossip May’s local elections could be the breaking point But scar tissue from years of churn might delay any internal revolt And reform continues to absorb “the laziest defectors” — in Anthony’s words — without a clear plan to use them

This week, we’re joined by Lord Daniel Hannan, one of the most thoughtful — and globally fluent — conservative voices in politics. We go deep on the future of the right across the Anglosphere: 🇬🇧 Is the British Conservative Party dead or just regenerating? 🇺🇸 Has the U.S. abandoned the world it built? 🇨🇦 Why is Canadian conservatism still the sanest? 🗳 And is the UK heading toward a merger moment like Canada’s in 2003? 🧭 What We Cover 1. The Anglosphere’s Conservative Crisis How lockdown changed the role of the state Why “Trumpism” is reshaping the right in every country — including Iceland And why Canada may be the only place where centre-right politics still feel normal “Preserving the sanity and civility of Canadian politics is no small prize.” — Hannan 2. Can Reform and the Tories Work Together? Hannan lays out the most detailed case yet for a non-merger, non-coalition electoral pact — and explains why time is running out. He also draws a direct line from Farage’s playbook to Canada’s 1993-2003 Reform-Conservative story — and suggests it may all play out again, faster than we think. “If we were all Dr. Spock from Star Trek, we’d have done this by now.” 3. The Long History of Toryism Daniel is writing the first comprehensive history of the Conservative Party — from the 1600s onward. He reminds us why old parties shouldn’t be underestimated… and why “Toryism” might survive even if the Tory party doesn’t. 4. On Brexit: Not a disaster — just underused We close the episode by tackling the narrative around Brexit’s so-called failure. “Brexit didn’t make you richer or poorer. It gave you back the right to make different choices. Whether you succeed or fail depends on what you do next.” 🎧 This is one of our favourite episodes of the season. Whether you’re a political junkie, a student of history, or just trying to make sense of where the right goes next — don’t miss it.

We’re back with another Issue Scan — and we’ve got a full lineup: 🌍 A 20-point postwar plan for Gaza 🇬🇧 Labour’s conference drama (or lack thereof) 📬 And a Canada Post strike that’s gone… oddly unnoticed? Joseph, Andrew, and Holly break down the headlines with just enough disagreement to keep things honest — and just enough beer to keep things friendly.

We had intended to explore this major foreign policy shift with a former G7 foreign minister, but unfortunately, schedules got in the way. Percy and Joseph share their thoughts on what is an incredibly sensitive topic.The conversation delves into the recent recognition of Palestine at the UN, contrasting Canadian foreign policy, and the implications of the October 7th attacks. We discuss the roles of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, the two-state solution debate, and the rising antisemitism in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We explore the military strategy of Israel post-October 7th, its diplomatic isolation, and the political motivations behind the recognition of Palestine. The discussion concludes with a hopeful note for peace amidst ongoing conflict.

We’re back with another Issue Scan — and somehow, the world got messier again. This week, we covered everything from Trump’s sudden about-face on Ukraine, to Keir Starmer’s high-stakes state visit with the same man, to Ed Davey’s surprisingly jazzy Lib Dem conference. And yes, we finally got Andrew back — fresh from California and full of strong beer opinions. We also welcomed some new (and critical!) listeners. One thinks our intro banter is interminable. Sorry critics, the useless banter is not going anywhere. Here’s what’s inside: 🌍 Trump’s Big Pivot on Ukraine“He gave Putin the red carpet—and got played. That’s personal for Trump.” 🇺🇸 After months of hedging, Donald Trump now says Ukraine can win back all its territory 🤔 Is this a genuine shift or just Trump being Trump? 🧠 The team debates whether U.S. aid policy is really changing — or just being rebranded ⚠️ Why NATO should be paying close attention to the timing, tone, and implications 🇬🇧 Trump’s UK State Visit“Success these days is: no Epstein questions and no one got deported.” 👑 Red carpets, royal banquets, and a tech prosperity pact 🎩 Starmer survives the visit unscathed—just barely 💥 Trump praises Britain by day, blasts Europe at the UN by night 🧾 Did any of it actually matter? Or was the goal simply to avoid disaster? 🇬🇧 Lib Dems vs Reform UK“If you’re trying to win back Tory moderates… they may not exist anymore.” 🎺 Ed Davey leads a marching band into conference season (literally) 📣 40+ references to Nigel Farage in one speech — is this strategy or desperation? 🧠 The crew dissects whether the Lib Dems are targeting the wrong voters in their anti-Reform push (But don’t worry, we’ll have more maple-flavoured content next week.) 🇨🇦 Canada Skipped This Week… 💄 Lipstick on a Gerbil “When you’re picking up your bag before the interview ends… it’s not a great sign.” 🎙 This week’s entry: Liz Kendall dodges every hard question on immigration with a smile ✅ Did she defend an unworkable “one-in-one-out” policy? Not really. 🧃 Did she charm the press and survive the interview? Absolutely.

This week on Craft Politics, we kick off our latest Issue Scan with a Prime Minister in crisis, a Conservative Party in retreat, and a Canadian housing announcement that somehow manages to add more bureaucracy to solve… bureaucracy. Plus, our favourite comms segment—Lipstick on a Gerbil—features an impossible task: defending Peter Mandelson. With Percy mostly frozen on screen (literally), Joseph and Holly carry the show. Here’s what’s inside: 🇬🇧 UK: Mandelson, Epstein, and the Labour Meltdown ❌ Peter Mandelson is sacked as UK ambassador to the US after emails surface linking him to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein 🧨 Starmer’s judgment under fire—did he know more than he admitted during PMQs? 🗳 Backbench muttering begins. Is May 2026 the unofficial deadline for a leadership change? 📉 Labour infighting, ministerial fatigue, and growing pressure from Andy Burnham 🔁 Meanwhile, the Conservatives lose… to Reform 🧍‍♂️ MP Danny Kruger defects to Reform UK, declaring: “The Conservative Party is dead.” 🤷‍♀️ Holly isn’t so sure: is this the start of a cascade, or just posturing between conferences? 🇺🇸 US: The Shooting of Charlie Kirk 💥 A high-profile act of political violence rocks the U.S.—and spreads globally 📱 The power (and danger) of social media virality in shaping public fear 🛑 What it means for public office, political recruitment, and the future of civil discourse 🇨🇦 Canada: The PM’s Housing Blitz 🏘 Mark Carney launches Build Canada Homes, a new federal agency with a $13B mandate 📈 Goal: 4,000 factory-built homes across 6 sites, using federal land and Canadian materials 🏗 But is launching a new bureaucracy really the best way to fight bureaucracy? 💄 Lipstick on a Gerbil: The Matt Tapp Clip 🎤 Labour Minister Matt Tapp sent out to defend Peter Mandelson’s appointment… hours before the sacking 🐽 Did he even try to apply lipstick? Or did he wisely avoid putting his fingerprints on the mess?

When we last had Ginny Roth on the show, everyone assumed Pierre Poilievre would be Canada’s next Prime Minister. Much has changed in seven months. This week, we ask Ginny: 🔄 Rebuilding the narrative: What should Poilievre say (and not say) in Question Period to shift the political terrain? 💸 Cost of living, crime, and immigration: Ginny argues that these remain the three most potent issues for Conservatives—and where Carney is most vulnerable. 🧠 Tone, authenticity & voter math: Is it a “likeability” problem—or a coalition problem? Ginny breaks down what the real issue is. 🧨 The TFW announcement: Why Poilievre’s stance on temporary foreign workers matters more than it looks. ⚖️ Keeping the base AND growing the tent: Can the Conservatives do what no other right-of-centre party has managed in the West—hold both the traditional right and new right together? Poilievre faces a leadership review vote in Calgary this January. We ask: Is there a credible alternative if he stumbles? And what issues should the Conservatives own to change the math before 2026? 🎧 This is a must-listen episode for political observers looking to understand the next phase of Conservative strategy, and the dynamics reshaping Canadian politics. 🎙 Featuring: Joseph Lavoie Andrew Percy Special Guest: Ginny Roth 🧠 Key insights from Ginny Roth: “No one cares if you say ‘I told you so.’” “Poilievre’s real risk isn’t likability—it’s losing the disaffected voters he brought into the tent last time.” “The federal NDP and Western NDP are essentially two different parties.”