Dr. Phil Klotzbach is back on the Carolina Weather Group to explain why he and the famed Colorado State University hurricane forecast predict a slightly below-average storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean this hurricane season.
They are forecasting 13 named storms, down from the average of 14.4 They expect 6 hurricanes, down from the average of 7.2. Dr. Klotzbach expects 2 major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater, which is down from 3.2.
Current neutral ENSO conditions look fairly likely to transition to El Niño this summer/fall. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong an El Niño would be, if it does develop. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are much warmer than normal, so if a robust El Niño does not develop, the potential still exists for a busy Atlantic hurricane season. Larger-than-normal uncertainty exists with this outlook. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
See their full report: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
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The Carolina Weather Group operates a weekly talk show of the same name. Broadcasting each week from the Carolinas, the show is dedicated to covering weather, science, technology, and more with newsmakers from the field of atmospheric science. With co-hosts across both North Carolina and South Carolina, the show may closely feature both NC weather and SC weather, but the topics are universally enjoyable for any weather fan. Join us as we talk about weather, environment, the atmosphere, space travel, and all the technology that makes it possible.
