Carbon Trading Chronicles – Details, episodes & analysis

In this final episode of our first season, carbon experts analyse how trading practices have changed, which new players are reshaping the market and what current trends are influencing trading activity. They will compare long-term and short-term trading strategies, explore the influence of politics, speculators and the weather on market decisions, and examine the opportunities arising from the competition between algorithms and human traders.

• Stefan Feuchtinger - Head of R&A at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Riham Wahba - Senior Market Analyst at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Francisco Grajales - Senior Environmental Commodities Trader, Vattenfall Energy Trading.

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In conversation with colleagues Riham Wahba and Guillaume Verger, Stefan Feuchtinger, Head of research and analysis at Vertis Environmental Finance talks about the evolution of EU compliance carbon markets over the last 6 months and how EU ETS will evolve over the second part of 2023. They conclude with an outlook to 2030.

Stefan Feuchtinger - Head of R&A at Vertis Environmental Finance.

Riham Wahba - Senior Market Analyst at Vertis Environmental Finance.

Guillaume Verger - Senior EU ETS Manager at Vertis Environmental Finance.

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What is driving the recent price increases despite the prevailing bearish predictions of analysts? Have fundamentals shifted or are we experiencing the mirage of the year? In this episode, carbon analysts and traders make hypotheses regarding 2024 price developments by examining industrials, utilities, banks and hedge funds' behaviour.

• Stefan Feuchtinger - Head of R&A at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Riham Wahba - Senior Market Analyst at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Maximilian Herstatt - Team Leader at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Lewis Unstead - Senior Analyst | EU Carbon at ICIS.

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Three months after the official inclusion of the shipping sector within the EU ETS, this episode aims to take stock of the lessons learned so far and explore the pressing questions of shipowners. Our experts analyse shipping companies’ EUAs buying behaviours, the impact of the inclusion of this new sector for the whole EU ETS framework as well as current strategies available for compliance… and whether there's a way out of the system. 

• Stefan Feuchtinger - Head of R&A at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Frederic Bouthillier: Head of Shipping at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Sebastian Niculescu - Senior Corporate Sales Trader at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Gabriel Papeians de Morchoven - Market Analyst at Vertis Environmental Finance.

Glossary:

• Sea passage: i.e. between two ports.

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Can biomethane truly mitigate compliance costs? In this episode, we explore the unknown of biomass and its potential to alleviate compliance costs for EU ETS compliant entities. From understanding its diverse grades to its trading dynamics, we dissect the bullish and bearish trends impacting its market trajectory, and its role in the energy mix.

• Stefan Feuchtinger - Head of R&A at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Sebastian Niculescu - Senior Corporate Sales Trader at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Jay Morrod - Team Lead Renewable Gas Analysis at STX Group

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As we move closer to the European elections in June, host Stefan Feuchtinger is joined by journalist Frédéric Simon from Carbon Pulse and trader Brieuc de Thier from Vertis. Together, they unpack the record-low EUA prices, the recently unveiled EU 2040 climate target, and the spectre of the European elections looming over carbon markets. Delving deep into the political landscape that shapes the EU ETS market, they analyse how the latest official communication and the imminent elections could disrupt the status quo, potentially diluting the Green Deal. Against the backdrop of declining carbon prices and emissions levels, they explore the ripple effects for compliant entities and the impact on European industrial development.

• Stefan Feuchtinger - Head of R&A at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Brieuc De Thier - Corporate Sales Trader at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Frédéric Simon - Head of EMEA at Carbon Pulse.

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In this first episode of 2024, Vertis and STX group experts unpack the practicalities of the CBAM implementation, from its entry into force in October 2023 until the end of free allocation in 2034.  Who bears the financial burden of CBAM, and how does it affect industries and economies? What ripple effects will CBAM have on the broader context of the EU ETS? Our experts will provide valuable insights and forecast how the mechanism is impacting global trade and trading practices.   Stefan Feuchtinger - Head of R&A at Vertis Environmental Finance. Riham Wahba - Senior Market Analyst at Vertis Environmental Finance. Sophie Casenave - Policy Affairs Analyst at STX Group Disclaimer: https://legal.vertis.com/api/document/282/get_document/

In this episode, Vertis Environmental Finance experts dive into the imminent evolution of the EU ETS, where a sweeping expansion is set to reshape the carbon trading landscape. We explore the critical sectors included, such as road transport, buildings, and EU ETS 1 industries below the 20MW threshold, and discuss the upcoming milestones to be expected by industrials across Europe, from 2027 onwards.

• Stefan Feuchtinger - Head of R&A at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Riham Wahba - Senior Market Analyst at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Gabriel Papeians de Morchoven - Market Analyst at Vertis Environmental Finance
• Sebastian Niculescu - Senior Corporate Sales Trader at Vertis Environmental Finance

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2040 seems like a way too broad time horizon, but as companies start to think about their long-term investment strategies is worth to start thinking: how will the EU ETS look like 17 years from now?

In the absence of reforms, the actual system would force the decarbonization of EU ETS covered industries by as soon as 2039-2040. Is this a likely scenario? It doesn’t seem feasible for industries like aviation or cement production.

With the help of Julia Michalak, EU policy Director at IETA we will try to disentangle the potential changes that could be implemented in the system in order to meet the decarbonization goals while maintaining competitiveness in the EU industry.

• Stefan Feuchtinger - Head of R&A at Vertis Environmental Finance.
• Julia Michalak - IETA EU Policy Director.
• Bjorn Bojesen - Team Leader at Vertis Environmental Finance.

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In this second episode, we delve into the complex world of gas and its profound implications on the European carbon markets. The hosts and our guests explore the impact TTF has on the power and industrial demand for carbon allowances and the EUA price. We will discover how the sensitivity of the global gas market correlates and de-correlates with the EUA price and the key role of this critical energy source in the EU's decarbonization goals.

Stefan Feuchtinger - Head of R&A at Vertis Environmental Finance.

Riham Wahba - Senior Market Analyst at Vertis Environmental Finance.

Gergely Szabo - Principal Investment Advisor at Vertis Environmental Finance.

Matteo Mazzoni - Director of Energy Analytics at ICIS.

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