Canada's Economy, Explained – Details, episodes & analysis

This episode of The Business Data Lab Podcast explores Canada’s “productivity emergency” and why the country ranks second-lowest in the G7 for labour productivity. Host Marwa Abdou, Senior Research Director, and Andrew DiCapua, Economist at the BDL, break down the challenges—from 11 consecutive quarters of negative productivity growth to underinvestment in technology and an overreliance on low-productivity sectors.

“Canada is leaving untapped potential on the table,” Marwa says in the episode. “Skilled immigrants, innovative industries, and tools like AI could transform our productivity story.” Andrew adds, “Productivity isn’t just about numbers. It’s about creating more value with the same resources, which drives higher wages and economic resilience.”

Despite the challenges, the episode offers hope by spotlighting Canada’s high-productivity industries—like natural resources and finance—and the transformative potential of generative AI. With 14% of businesses planning to adopt AI, Andrew urges leaders to embrace these tools to stay competitive.

Resources:

• Reports and tools: businessdatalab.ca
• Key reports: Prompting Productivity and Business Insights Quarterly

In this episode of Canada’s Economy Explained: The Business Data Lab Podcast, host Marwa Abdou speaks with Stephen Tapp, Chief Economist, and Patrick Gill, Senior Director, about the key economic predictions shaping Canada in 2025. The conversation covers affordability pressures, labour disruptions, immigration slowdowns, and the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs.

Affordability remains a top concern, even as inflation stabilizes at 2 percent. “We’ve lived through a generational price increase,” says Stephen, noting that essentials like housing and groceries remain expensive. Labour disruptions continue to be a challenge after a record-breaking year for work stoppages. “A number of collective bargaining agreements are opening up at a time when inflationary pressures are still driving wage demands,” Patrick explains. 

Businesses are also facing risks from slowing immigration, declining interest rates, and shifting trade policies. The discussion explores what companies can do to prepare, including adopting AI, upskilling employees, and diversifying supply chains.

Resources 

• Canada-US Trade Tracker
• Prompting Productivity Report

Welcome to The Business Data Lab Podcast: Canada's Economy, Explained. An initiative of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

Hosted by Senior Research Director Marwa Abdou, this podcast features insightful discussions with economists and business leaders.  Listen in for deep, expert analysis of Canada's top economic trends to help you make sense of the numbers.

U.S. tariffs threaten Canada’s economy and will put industries, jobs, and supply chains at risk. According to the Business Data Lab, $3.6 billion in goods and services cross the border daily as part of our $1.3 trillion trade relationship. Trump's 25% tariff on goods could shrink Canada’s GDP by a whopping 2.6%.

Mairead Lavery, former President and CEO of Export Development Canada (EDC), talks with host Marwa Abdou about the fallout and what businesses must do next. The first woman to lead EDC, she has decades of experience in finance, strategy, and trade. 

“A significant portion of our exports are for the benefit of U.S. inputs to their exports — we’re part of a supply chain. The end consumer may not actually be a U.S. consumer,” she says in the podcast, noting that tariffs will hit manufacturing, agriculture, and energy hardest. Companies, she says, must rethink their long-term strategies rather than rely on trade patterns that once felt secure.

Listen now to get the strategies you need to protect your business.

Resources:

Partners in Prosperity Report

Canada-US Trade Tracker

EDC website

In this episode of Canada’s Economy, Explained, host Marwa Abdou sits down with Dr. Chad P. Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of State, to examine how new U.S. tariffs could impact Canada’s economy.

Bown explains how Canada’s deep ties to U.S. supply chains leave it exposed to major cost increases, warning that tariffs could “double or triple” production expenses and hit smaller suppliers hardest. He cautions against retaliation, reminding policymakers that “tariffs also cause self-harm.”

The conversation covers why automation limits the return of manufacturing jobs and why Canada’s efforts to diversify trade partners face steep challenges from geography and infrastructure barriers. Bown also shares cautious optimism. While Washington’s direction on trade is confusing even to insiders, he reassures Canadians that “you still have a lot of fans in Washington” and reminds listeners that democratic systems can correct poor policy over time.

Listen to the full conversation to understand why careful, long-term thinking is key to protecting Canada’s economy.

Chad Bown website
Trade Talks Podcast
Canada-US Trade Tracker

This episode explores Canada’s gender gap in entrepreneurship with Isabelle Hudon, President and CEO of the Business Development Bank of Canada, and tackles the systemic barriers women face—especially in accessing capital. 

Drawing from BDL’s new report, Women Entrepreneurs: Canada’s Biggest Missed Business Opportunity, the discussion reveals why women still own just 18% of Canadian businesses despite a $2 billion government push to double that by 2025. 

“Access to capital is probably one of the top three reasons why we don't see as many women picking entrepreneurship as a career versus men,” says Hudon in the episode. She goes on to share how initiatives like the BDC's $500 million Thrive Platform are driving change.

The discussion emphasizes the need for bold ambition, policy support, and societal change to foster inclusive entrepreneurship and economic growth. 

Key takeaways:

• Canada has 100,000 fewer entrepreneurs than it did 20 years ago, according to a BDC study.
• Women remain significantly underrepresented in entrepreneurship.
• Economic cost of gender disparity in entrepreneurship estimated at $180 billion.
• Access to capital is more difficult for women entrepreneurs.
• Women-owned businesses concentrated in limited sectors like healthcare and retail.
• Lack of women representation in investment decision-making processes.

Resources:

BDL report Women Entrepreneurs: Canada’s Biggest Missed Business Opportunity

BDL’s Business Conditions Terminal for Women in Business

BDC article How Do Women Impact the Canadian Economy?

BDC’s $500 Million Thrive Platform for Women

BDC’s hub for Women Entrepreneurs offering finance, advice & free resources 

In this episode, host Marwa Abdou speaks with Dawn Desjardins, Chief Economist at Deloitte Canada, about the country's fragile economic outlook for 2025. Desjardins shares insights from Deloitte’s Calm Before the Storm report, which highlights falling interest rates, stable inflation, and household savings as economic supports — while new U.S. tariffs and slowing immigration policies introduce serious risks.

Desjardins warns that a potential 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian exports could cost the average Canadian over $2,000 annually, while GDP could shrink by 0.8% if Canada retaliates. “Consumer confidence has come down significantly,” she says, adding that businesses are delaying investments due to uncertainty. Labour shortages may ease with reduced immigration, but that could also dampen long-term growth. She also points to productivity issues, housing shortages, and geopolitical uncertainty as compounding pressures.

Despite the turbulence, Desjardins remains cautiously optimistic: “We anticipate this to be a sharp impact on the economy, but a relatively short-lived one.”

Resources:

Deloitte Canada Report

BDL Business Conditions Terminal

In this episode of Canada’s Economy, Explained, host Marwa Abdou sits down with Dr. Trevor Tombe, Professor of Economics at the University of Calgary and Director at the School of Public Policy.

Tombe discusses the widening fiscal divide between Canada and the United States and what it means for Canada's economy, trade, and future stability. While Canada’s federal deficit stands at 1.6% of GDP, the U.S. deficit has ballooned to 6.2%, creating real risks for global markets.

Tombe explains that Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains stable and manageable at 42%, compared to over 100% in the U.S. He warns that political dysfunction in Washington is raising borrowing costs which further strains U.S. finances. Meanwhile, Canada must remain vigilant, especially in addressing productivity declines and preparing for rising healthcare costs. Tombe notes, “If historical patterns had continued, Canada’s economy today would be 18% larger.” He also points to a 500% spike in Canadian business uncertainty due to pending U.S. trade decisions.

Enjoy this fascinating episode with insights from a leading Canadian Economist.

Resources:

Business Insights Quarterly Report (Q1 2025)

Canada-US Trade Tracker Tool
TrevorTombe.com
TheHub.ca

In this episode of Canada’s Economy, Explained, host Marwa Abdou brings us insights from the inaugural Business Data Lab conference, The Case for Canada.

Trust—once the invisible foundation of commerce and governance—is now fractured, with only 62% of Canadians expressing moderate or high trust in institutions, according to Edelman’s Trust Barometer. Former Statistics Canada Chief Anil Arora opened with a strong statement: “Good data...is an investment in building trust.”

The episode features a range of voices from the conference: Economist Stephen Tapp unpacks how growing regulation has cut Canada’s GDP by nearly 2%, while Professor Meredith Lilly contrasts Canada’s emotionally charged trade strategy with Mexico’s pragmatic diplomacy. Dr. Chad Bown from the Peterson Institute (and former Chief Economist in the U.S. Department of State), explains the contradictions in U.S. tariff policy and its real implications for Canada.

Andrew DiCapua, Economist at the Chamber of Commerce, offers a sobering reminder that inflation’s lasting impact continues to erode public trust in central banks, calling for more clarity and transparency in policy decisions.

The thread tying it all together? Canada’s future prosperity hinges on restoring institutional trust—through better data, clear policy, and principled leadership.

Resources:

2025 Edelman Trust Barometer 

World Values Survey

Regulatory Accumulation, Business Dynamism and Economic Growth in Canada

The Future of North America’s Economic Relationship

How Canada Won at Home While America Came First in NAFTA Renegotiations

In this episode of Canada’s Economy, Explained, host Marwa Abdou explores Canada’s pivotal role as G7 and B7 president in 2025 and the country’s opportunity to lead on AI adoption and sustainability. Joining her are Tom Mosseau and Franco Amalfi from Capgemini Canada—a global consulting and technology firm—who break down the challenges and possibilities facing Canadian businesses.

Tom Mosseau points out that “legacy infrastructure, skills shortages, and investment hesitancy” continue to slow down digital transformation, especially for small and medium-sized businesses. While 61% of Canadian firms believe generative AI could reshape their business strategy, only 28% are actively integrating it into operations. Franco Amalfi raises a red flag: AI’s environmental impact is significant, with “high energy consumption, increased e-waste and water use,” yet only 12% of companies are tracking it.

Capgemini calls for a “responsible by design” approach, emphasizing smaller AI models, renewable energy, and sustainable supply chains. The episode closes by highlighting how coordinated public-private collaboration and long-term digital investment can help Canada build a competitive, ethical, and environmentally responsible economy.

Links:
2025 B7 Communique
Key Takeaways from the B7 Summit
Capgemini – Data & AI
Capgemini – Developing sustainable Gen AI
Prompting Productivity Report