Explore every episode of the podcast Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge Jan 7th, 2026: Geopolitics, Markets and Economics – Are They Still Connected?

“The barometer read “Fair” yesterday, but the Shipping Report says, “Gale Imminent”.

Markets have opened strongly in 2026 and seem remarkably sanguine towards rising geopolitical instability and shocks. They’re buying a rosy outlook of rising profits, lower rates and costs, and are blithely unconcerned by the risks of destabilisation from conflict or competition.

I got a call from a Morning Porridge reader y’day, demanding to know why I’ve been so fixated on events in Venezuela this year… “What about the markets?” he asked. Very fair question. A succession of record highs in stocks suggest all is well! He thinks Venezuela is nothing more than a distraction, but there appears to be a massive disconnect between the commentariat’s reaction to the Geopolitical Shocks we’re seeing, and the market’s complete and utter lack of concern about them. 

Take a glance at markets and its looking bright and breezy – fair sailing weather as the barometer would tell us. Stocks are broadly higher anticipating a fine year ahead. Bond yields are generally lower, looking forward to lower rates and declining inflation. Nothing to worry about… Apparently. 

Yet the news flow is dominated by events in far-off Venezuela, and now Trump’s careless threats to seize Greenland – with military force if necessary – with nary a concern for what that will do for European stability or as a market for American goods and services. The Chinese are licking their lips in anticipation of boom times to follow. Funny how the UK’s weather is set by systems born in the Caribbean and how the North Atlantic Drift and Jetstream over Greenland direct the storms that batter us. 

The trick to connecting the big picture of geopolitics, macro and micro economic factors that drive markets (and I not claiming to have mastered this yet in my brief 4-decade market career), is catching the signals that matter amidst the tumult of activity:

Continued/ go to www.morningporridge.com for access to the full story.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge Jan 6th 2026: Venezuela Bonds – are you a buyer or seller? 

“A land of passion and contradictions, where the past and the future collide.”

Venezuela bond prices have spiked higher on expectations of new investment, debt restructuring, and the monetisation of its oil resources. But how likely is it the nation can be reformed, attract new money, and satisfy the population while the old regime remains in place, and Washington demands to be paid?

The critical difference between a stock trader and a bond trader is the latter is a pragmatist dealing on facts and probabilities, while the former will happily believe six improbable things before breakfast. Bond prices reflect reality. Stock prices are not set by uncommonly good sense but by the gullibility of equity buyers to believe fairy stories… (Hence Elon Musk’s success – he’s not much of an engineer or inventor, but a marketing whizz who has convinced investors he’s got the ability to deliver rounder wheels.) 

Sometimes the cold logic of the bond market and the confabulations of stocks collide – as they apparently did yesterday in the market for Venezuela Bonds. 

The price of the nation’s debt saw spectacular gains on the wake of President Trump’s new approach to Strategic Country Acquisition – Gorilla Style: bump off the top guy, threaten the rest and watch them to fall into line. (That’s the hope – we shall find out how the actuality plays out in coming weeks and if the “regime” behaves as Trump demands.)

Distressed EM debt is always interesting. It all about gaming possibilities, prospectuses, and the prospects for change. It can be a murky business. There is “said-to-be” an unground railroad of Russian debt being sold to dubious investment desks in Central Asia, from where the bonds are on-sold at deep discounts to Russian oligarchs looking to deal them to Putin in return for influence and patronage.  

The benchmark Venezuela bonds (debt issued by the national oil company PDVSA, Petroleos de Venezuela) due 2037, spiked up 11 points to 31 cents on the dollar yesterday. In the past year the VENZ 9.25% bond due 2027 have traded up from 15 cents to 41 cents! 

Blain’s Morning Porridge, January 5th 2026 – Another Judder in Geopolitics. 

“When America brings its full capabilities to bear, no tyrant is beyond reach.”

Concepts about global law and order were left by the wayside over the weekend – Trump’s administration delivered what it said it would in terms of America First, Western Hemisphere focus. Do Venezuela and Iran raise or diminish the risks of Global Conflict in 2026. What comes next?

Happy New Year. Let’s hope it is a good and prosperous one…. The signals are looking mixed.

My bear-scenario outlook for 2026 markets was based around a significantly higher risk of global conflict destabilising the global economy – the potential for an even larger shock than Covid. Have the events in Venezuela and Iran over the weekend caused that perception of risk to rise or fall? That will become clearer in coming days.

What will President Trump’s surgical removal of President Maduro from office in Venezuela, of the rising prospect sfor regime change from internal dissent in Iran, mean for global trade and geopolitical risks? How will markets account for yet another geopolitical judder moment? Will they even care?

Nothing should have surprised us about the Maduro takedown. It played to all the themes Trump has quite openly exposed around Project 2025, America First, his new “Don-Roe” Doctrine of American hegemony over the Western hemisphere, and in the recent National Security Strategy release. He is not wasting time on difficult and destabilising regime change – effectively telling Maduro’s cronies in power they have the choice to kow-tow and follow US direction, or be removed with prejudice. Last night they appeared to be falling into line.

Trump’s actions would have shocked us a decade ago. His disdain for the US constitution and political system, international law, and diplomatic niceties horrifies many. The World has changed. This is the new age of the authoritarian state.

But let’s not be blind-sided by how Trump’s actions shattered any illusions we retained about America, freedom, democracy and justice. The reality is the US military just proved how supremely effective it is, able to mount an operation no other nation could even contemplate. The complexity of integrating and executing a plan combining 150 aircraft, human, signals and satellite intelligence, and special forces insertions, was stunning.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge 19th Dec 2025 – Destabilisation and Peak Exuberance

 “There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”

 Markets are winding down for the holiday break, but the news flow continues to hint at rising destability and noise, hinting the future economic path will get more twisty and difficult. Lower rates and QE fuelled markets (but not growth) in the 2010s, but won’t work when there is a strong inflationary impulse in place!

LINK TO PODCAST

Unless something dramatic happens in the next two weeks, this is the last Morning Porridge of 2025. I will therefore wish everyone a very Merry Christmas, Solstice or whatever, and a Guid and Prosperous 2026. I have a massive pile of interesting books to read, a recovering wife to look after, friends to spend time with, and a damn smart dog, Dinnerjacket Wrigglebottom (DeeJay to his mates), who takes me out for long walks explaining me the economics of treats. Perfect… nothing to distract me for the next 2 weeks, baring interruptions…

I reckon the coming year is going to be more challenging than we expect – I don’t think we understand just how much the world changed in 2025, or how the consequences are yet to play out. Global uncertainty will remain a destabilising theme – every day there is something new, each of seemingly limited import, but which will add up to a mighty noise:

• Last night’s failure by Europe to act decisively by using seized Russian Assets to finance Ukraine for fear of Fitch Ratings (Who???) downgrading Euroclear, confirms the headless chicken dither in Yoorp over the necessity to take ownership of the War.
• The American President went on National TV for 20 minutes to rant at American voters how good the economy is – the WSJ fact checked him and announced 91% of his claims were bogus.
• The Bank of England narrowly voted to cut rates despite inflation fears… Angels on a pinhead…

 Regular readers of the Morning Porridge will know that as a dour Scotsman I am seldom mistaken for a ray of Sunshine. I’ve been bearish on overvalued stock markets and the market’s over-active speculation gland since 2010, the beginning of the QE Era. 16 years is a long time waiting for my negativity to finally fall into place – but who knows…. Maybe this time…

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Blain’s Morning Porridge 17th December 2025 – Bitcoin and Crypto Further Detach from Reality.

“If you don’t believe it, I’m not going to waste time trying to convince you.”

Global Markets surge ahead. Bitcoin has been left behind. Yet again the crypto bubble has popped. All that’s holding it up is buy-the-dip greater fools, hope and belief – none of which are strategies for success. Time for a reassessment of what Bitcoin is and isn’t, and why it’s time to stop wasting energy on it!

Christmas is traditionally a time of goodwill to all men – even the shills of the Crypto World.

I’ve been thinking what I can possibly do to help them at this time of festive joy? Should I give them a dopamine hit by telling them everything is fine, this is just a speed-bump -and not to worry because increasing global international adoption of crypto assets means eternal upside? Or should I gift them some tough love – by telling them the truth? How do you tell true believers they are worshipping false idols, and Crypto is all absolute bollchocks?

Bitcoin is down 20% on the year, and 30% down from its October peak. Trump’s memecon is worth a tad more than the square root of f***all. As it tumbles, the BTC Treasury concept pops, Gold rises, and stocks remain solid – it’s demonstrated, yet again, that Bitcoin does not store value, isn’t linked to the economy, and is not a digital safe haven. And don’t tell me its Energy – that’s utter bunkum.

The reality is Crypto is worth only what the market believes it’s worth – which isn’t as much as it was. And, in recent months the decline in its prices has confirmed Bitcoin is now wholly divorced from the direction of global markets.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge 16th December, 2025: The New Economics and Investibility of Defence

“The war was started by career soldiers, but will be finished by teachers, engineers and accountants.”

Ukraine has demonstrated massive changes in how future wars will be fought. Yet, the military bureaucracies of Western Nations are mired in the procurement-treacle of 80 years of peacetime spending. It’s time for radical overhaul, and an explosion of private-funding to build a stronger Western economy through aggressive deterrence. 

One of the big market themes I’ve been drawn to is the rising threat of conflict involving what is left of the now fracturing Western Alliance. That’s why I’m now an Advisor to Spitfire Strategic Capital – a highly innovative defence fund. If you had asked me if a general European War was likely 5-years ago, I would have laughed. Today – it’s a substantial economic risk that could swamp supply chains, economies and markets. The World changes faster than we think.

The most basic duty of any state is security. Europe and the UK are guilty of failure. As the USA retreats from foreign entanglements, it’s time for a massive European policy shift to be seen to be acting with purpose and alignment.  

The threat is very real. Yesterday the new head of Britain’s MI6, Blaise Metreweli, warned Russia is deliberately prolonging the war in Ukraine, and has no intention of signing any peace deal. She described how the UK and Europe are in a grey area, caught between peace and war with “an aggressive, expansionist and revisionist” Russia as Putin tests the limits across Nato through cyber-attacks, sabotage and drone intrusions. The head of the UK’s defence staff, Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton, later warned of coming conflict in Europe that will require similar sacrifices as were made in the second World War, and that the UK is woefully underprepared. 

 The war in Ukraine has taught many lessons. Everyone will be familiar with the leaps in drone technology. The new economics of warfare – the unsustainability of spending millions on an interceptor missile to shoot down a drone costing a few hundred of dollars when the enemy is mounting swarm attacks numbered in the thousands, and the entire inventory of missile inceptors is measured in dozens – is brutal. Ukrainian pop-up factories close to the frontlines churn out thousands of attack drones each day – but it takes months to build expensive interceptors.

 It's not just drone warfare that’s experienced a paradigm shift. The whole defence sector is unrecognisable from just a decade ago. Invention and innovation leap forward in times of war.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 15th 2025: Some Big themes for 2026?

“Santa Baby, one thing I forgot, a yacht and the deeds to a platinum mine…”

The Chinese curse about living in “interesting times” is a boon to anyone fascinated by markets. There is no shortage of excitement coming our way next year – everything from conflict threats, renewed inflation, the return of QE, to the Space X IPO. But the thing is… we really don’t know….. we never have!

Being a market commentator comes with a terrible cost – the numbing fear that strikes at 4 am that there is nothing to write about! Dull, boring, predictable markets might be great for bond investors – but they are the curse of the markets’ chattering classes who seek to describe what’s occurring.

Thankfully…. There is no shortage of stuff to write about these days.

There are so many different levels to markets – from the over-arching macro themes of geopolitics, economics, growth, commodities, liquidity and policy & politics, right down to the individual narratives driving individual stocks and bonds. Then there are the themes that weave across markets – like the “speculation on speculation” that drives the crypto markets, or the effects and consequences of how inflationary expectations will impact markets. And the capacity of people to fool themselves and others never ceases to surprise me.

We may be living in an age where General Artificial Intelligence is nearly upon us, when Quantum Computing may shortly crack the biggest problems of health, wealth and prosperity, and Energy is key to everything, but fundamentally…. We are still a bunch of primates recently (in geological terms) out the trees, whose brains are programmed to fight or flight a pride of lions or the hiss of a snake. We obey emotions triggered by dopamine, serotonin, and hormone FOMO – the most powerful force in the financial markets: the Fear of Missing Out. We crave love and companionship, but worship the crass greed of success.

We are not as clever as we think. On that basis… what to expect in 2026?

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 12th, 2025 – Outlook 2026: Conflict or Trade?

“The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that once believed they were eternal.”

2026 Outlooks contain rosy predictions for stock market upside, calmer bond markets, the triumph of AI, and even a few who still say Bitcoin will rule us all. But the major Macro risk will be global trade – what happens as China and the USA face off? Trump has fractured the Western Alliances even as China’s trade and military strength give it all the options. What will Emperor Xi choose to do?

It is the time of the year for guessing what might happen next….  

I have no crystal ball. All I can do is perceive the world through a glass, darkly – based on insights from friends and clients (who are often both). This morning I’m going to paint a Global Macro scenario that is already in play – triggered by Trump’s careless unravelling of the Western Alliances. If it plays through, it will utterly change markets.

It’s one I personally believe will set a tone of heightened market risk for the coming years. There are three critical ingredients to this outlook:

• China – Options
• Europe, Japan and Korea – Capacity, Intent and Deterrence
• Global Trade or Global Conflict

You will notice America does not feature. President Trump has played his hand and accelerated the coming economic and, perhaps, kinetic conflict. What matters now is how other nations now play the cards they’ve been dealt in the Great Game of Geopolitics.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 11th, 2025 – The US economy, Potemkin Markets and QE

“The IQ of a mob is the IQ of the dumbest member divided by the number of the crowd.”

Y’day we had yet another Judder Moment for markets as the Fed surrendered to Trump and prepares to juice the markets with renewed QE. Have we learnt nothing? No, I guess we have not. Pretend and keep pretending as we enter the Potemkin Economy era. This will not end well.

LINK TO PODCAST

What should we make of yesterday’s Fed Meeting? A cut in Fed Funds to 3.50-3.75%. Huzzah! Ah, the madness of crowds… “Oh no, here we go again” said the bowl of petunias.

What we witnessed at yesterday’s Fed meeting was extraordinary. A bunch of academics debating angels on a pinhead while under the presidential cosh? Were they thinking about their role as the guardians of price stability and job security.. or were they focused on the political trend. Lots of talk about elevated risks to inflation and jobs.. but lots of what looked like dither and analysis paralysis.

In the ongoing absence of tangible and real data, and current politics.… lots to argue about. It’s clear what the president wants – lower rates to keep juicing the stock market into the Mid-Terms in 11 months time.. A strong stock market looks like a strong America. Simple As.
Welcome to the Potemkin Political Economy…

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 9th, 2025 – What does new US Security Strategy mean for Markets and Outlook?

“For he on honey-dew hath fed, and drunk the milk of Paradise.”

The new US National Security Strategy (NSS) revealed last week confirms just how much the world has changed. It was a kick in the teeth for Europe and leaves the door ajar on Taiwan. It’s unlikely to foster stability. It increases the pressure on Europe to swiftly rearm, and unify its defence and deterrence capabilities. For America – it raises fundamental questions about its declining power, strength, might and economic outlook.

A number of Porridge Readers asked yesterday why I hadn’t commented on President Trump’s new US National Security Strategy (NSS) yesterday. The Strategy was released last Thursday, but given my close involvement with Spitfire Strategic Capital, the hybrid PE/Defence Fund, I held off till I’d discussed it with the Fund Principals.(For the record: The comments below are entirely my own, and don’t represent the views of the Fund.)

The US NSS puts the recent launch of the Spitfire Fund into an even more urgent context. As others have commented, “it could have been authored by Putin.” Europe now has even less time to rebuild its defensive capabilities and prepare itself for decades of crisis. The only way it will survive is through deterrence and being prepared against multiple threats – Russia is the immediately obvious one. Others will be coming.

Sadly, I am utterly unconvinced European governments collectively appreciate the urgency and scale of the threat facing them. They are still failing to prioritise the urgency of new defence spending.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 8th, 2025 – Markets, TheGlobal Economy and the ‘26 US Midterms.

 “It’s all about the economy, stupid…”

This week will see the Fed ease rates, stocks will rally on happyretail buying any dip, and everyone will go into the holidays joyful… Except they won’t. There is so much still bubbling under the hood of the US economy that can go “bang”. Don’t watch the USA – watch China for clues.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 4th, 2025 – Hans-Jeorge Rudloff could teach us much about markets…

“When the Eurobond market exploded, it made London the centre of the world…”

This is not an obituary – but a story about markets. Hans-Jeorge Rudloff, who passed away earlier this week, was the dominant figure of the Eurobond market. His insights and vision were extraordinary – understanding how marketsworked, how to dominate them, and setting the foundations for today’s $120 trillion global market!

Yesterday one of my chums and market mentors called me with the news Hans-Jeorge Rudloff, one of the founding fathers of the Euromarkets, had passed away on Monday. Between us, my friend and I must have over 90 years of market experience, but we both owe our careers and success to the market that Rudloffand a small number of others created. 

In 1985 – when I first started bothering my betters in finance - the Eurobond market funded around $165 bln in new debt. It was young and developing - the rules were being made up as it developed, but it was tremendously exciting. In its first 2 decades (from 1963) the Euro-market had grown from zero to 10% of global market debt capacity of a couple of trillion dollars!

Today, the Global bond markets are a $120 trillion plus phenomena! There are multiple subsets of the fixed income markets – most of which thrive. Asia is set to overtake the USA as the largest component of fixed income flows later this decade.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 3rd, 2025 – Pantomime, King Rat, and Outrageous Predictions

 "It’s behind you, oh no it isn’t!”

 What’s not to like about Panto? Saxo Bank’s excellent Outrageous Predictions for 2026 are out.. Lets dig into why Sir Keir Starmer might consider rejoining Europe to peeve Nigel Farage, how China will dominate trade through Tech and a gold-linked Yuan, and why SpaceX is unlikely to be the first $1 trillion IPO.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 2nd 2025 – AI isn’t a bubble, it’s Tech evolution evolving

 “The new, new thing will always be superseded by the next new, new thing…”

Michael Burry is not out. His Stuffed Turkey comments sound like a prophesy. AI is evolving fast and not necessarily in the direction the current market understands. Bewareno-see-ums. What if the current tech is a dead end, and the financials collapse? A big shift may become clear in coming months… and where to invest next!And let’s talk about bit-flips!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 2nd 2025 – AI isn’t a bubble, it’s Tech evolution evolving

“The new, new thing will always be superseded by the next new, new thing…”

Michael Burry is not out. His Stuffed Turkey comments sound like a prophesy. AI is evolving fast and not necessarily in the direction the current market understands. Bewareno-see-ums. What if the current tech is a dead end, and the financials collapse? A big shift may become clear in coming months… and where to invest next! And let’s talk about bit-flips!

But first…. A couple of days ago I posited the shelf-life on the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility looked close to its expiry date. When the organisation that is supposed to exude market stability becomes the cause of instability…. Then it’s time to move on. The resignation of Richard Hughes had an inevitabilityabout it… The question for markets will be the independence of what follows…

Back in the real world… I’m trying to work out if there is still time for a major market shocker ahead of the holiday? Perhaps. Bitcon looks a complete flush – but if you’re a regular Porridge reader, you already knew that. The pressure on Govt bonds is relentless. Japan is…. interesting. Could it yet be AI?

The thing about investing in Technology is whatever you buy will eventually be obsolete. The cycle from new bright shiny new new thing to forgotten in a desk drawer is getting shorter and shorter. This morning its Nvidia. What will it be by lunchtime?

Blain’s Morning Porridge – December 1st, 2025: Gilts indicate Stability – what is generating the noise?

 There are lies, damned lies, statistics, and the Torygraph – where even Lucifer fears to tread.”

 There is a lot of noise in Gilts these days. The danger is it derails national confidence – even though much of the clamour is twaddle. The reality is all Governments face challenges, but the UK’s Gilts market is much stronger and more resilient that the right-wing press would care to admit.

The most famous quote about bond markets is “I want to come back as the bond markets. You can intimidate everybody.” Its ascribed to James Carville, Bill Clinton’s lead political strategist. Back in its heyday it recognised the supposed threat Bond Vigilantes hold over bonds – picturing them as a bandof furies ready to leap upon governments or financial authorities on any sign of foolishness, backsliding or bad policy.

Given all the noise about the UK government budget there are many who think a UK Bond crisis is imminent. Relax – ignore the noise, understand where it is coming from (and why), and be analytical about it.

Let’s start by asking how the market reacted to the budget? No stress. No Drama. Yields tightened. Markets accepted it for what it was – best of a bad job. Yet, the weekend was full of yet more drama, and the predicable hypocrisy of failed politicians demanding heads for doing what they would have done.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 27th 2025 – Bond Markets, Inflation and Economic Dementia

“I find it fascinating the chainsaw has become an emblem of a new golden era of humanity”

The UK survived yesterday’s Pretend and Extend budget. It was a lacklustre soap-opera moment. It won’t cure the UK’s long-term issues or fix Broken Britain. If politicianswere serious about repairing the political economy of the UK – it’s time for root and branch surgery on the “frictions” that leave the nation suffering Economic Dementia!

Yesterday, all economic life of the UK did not suddenly end. The economy did not fizzle away in a puff of irrefutable budget logic. Millions of UK employees did not self-combust as a result of tax changes. The political economy of the nation did not breakdown as angry mobs stormed Whitehall.

We survived a budget.

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Markets dancing hard ahead of the hangover

“Beware markets full of absolute fabrications presented as irrefutable truths.”

Markets drunk on expectations and hype will believe what they want to believe – but as bubbles pop and truths are exposed, then sentiment can shift suddenly. Yesterday’smarket darlings become today’s scams. Who knew? Relax. The sun will come up tomorrow. Enjoy the show.

Sometimes you just have to laugh at the narratives markets are prepared to believe. Bubbles are a feature of markets, and they all pop eventually. Don’t panic and don’t lose heart – you favourite bubble might pop today, but a new one will emerge tolose your shirt on tomorrow. It’s not the end of the world – unless you’re 6 times levered on Strategy…. The equivalent of Thunder White Cider and a couple of tabs at a wild party, perhaps?

Some folk are gamblers. Some folk are realists. Which are you today? What will your head feel like when the party stops?

The end of the American Age – what will follow?

 “Let me die in the uniform in which I fought my battles for freedom, may God forgive me for putting on another.”

The end of the exceptional American Century is happening faster than we think. America is dispensing with friends and allies, and American Tech leadership is no longer unquestioned. It spells rising instability and threats. Defence has never been more critical as Europe seeks to define its future.

Sometime in the next few years markets will be forced to make a fundamental reassessment of macro-market themes based what will follow the American age. History shows Empires rotate on a 2K cycle – every 100-120 years or – often accompanied by conflict. What comes next will literally change everything – and it will require market participants to be prepared and be nimbleand swift. History shows all Empires rise, mature and are replaced by the next one – it’s inevitable economic evolution.

The American age has been exceptional. We’ve seen incredible technological advances, rising health and prosperity, enabled by an explosion of global trade – but now it’s in its end-phase. The world’s population has quadrupled from 2 billion in 1925 to 8 billion today, as advances in medicine, agriculture, andresources became readily available. The last 80-years have seen a relatively more peaceful and stable world avoiding mass conflict of the scale that previously decimated populations.

If it’s not AI, will it be Private Capital Markets that trigger crisis?

“Private Capital Markets thrive because other markets arerun by compliance and over-regulated.”

Markets are less fragile than we think. There are always people watching, waiting and ready to catch bargains. Some risks are in plain sight. But in Private Capital Markets they are hidden – which is why many market players believe the scale of losses might be hidden. Will Private Markets trigger the next crisis? I doubt it.

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Scotland, Kilts and Fitba’, has the world gone mad?

“We’re on the march wi’ Ally’s Army… we’ll really shakeem up when we win the World Cup…”

The world has gone mad, but fear not, Scotland qualifying for the World Cup will trigger growth, prosperity and happiness (for a wee while – 3 games I expect). The imminent launch of Scottish KILTS bonds will open a Pandora’s box of difficult questions.

Forget the impending bubble pop in AI. Fear not the loomingcredit bust that is Private Credit. Be unconcerned about Japanese bond yields starting to spike. Sleep sound as bitcoin proves as hollow, pointless and scammy as I always said it was. Ignore the possibility a global inflationary impulse is about to sink bond markets triggering global market mayhem.

 The clearest signs yet of absolute irrational market exuberanceis about to hit are to be found in two improbable things before breakfast:

     Scotland has qualified for the World Cup next year – 47 years after the greatest World Cup goal in the history of the Galaxy,Archie Gemmill vs Holland in the Argentina World Cup, and 27 years after Scotland had the temerity to score vs Brazil in the 1998 cup (I was there), finally there is a chance Football will be coming home to where it belongs… Hampden.

Even more improbably…. my team, Heart of Midlothian, (The Jambos) the perennial10th best team in a two-team league, isleading the Scottish Premier League, and hasn’t lost a game this season! They are 7 points clear of the mighty Celtic.

 And to cap it all, Scotland nearly beat the magnificent AllBlacks last weekend at Rugby. (We won’t mention how they snatched a humiliating defeat from certain victory against the Pumas on Saturday.)

 What has this got to do with markets you are thinking?

 LOTS.. lets talk about KILTS.

“It’s the end of the world all over again…”

Headlines about a deepening stock sell off, the rising fear” gauge, and unsustainable valuations, are dominating the news flow. Relax. End of the world market crashes happen all the time. Sit back and enjoy the show. Get your buying boots ready.

 “No company is going to be immune , including us” saidSundar Pichai of Google. Peter Theil has sold out of Nvidia. When one of my chums, a “creative” up in London, asked on Sunday if she should invest in AI, you know it’s way too late. Even the BBC has noticed the AI bubble might be a bust…

But it won’t be the end of the World… Something new will emerge.

There was a time, not long ago, when calling the end of theAI bubble would have made me a contrarian. Not anymore. It’s the new consensus. Before launching into this morning’s Porridge on why AI is going to become a massively profitable utility post the inevitable correction. Let me just post a warning: There is a chance… a small one, that a market correction nowdevelops into something much, much worse that will trigger bond markets and global chaos…. but why worry now about something we’re only going to have to worry about later…

 This morning its AI is Dead, Long Live AI!

In bonds there is truth – at least there was until politicalcampaigners realised what a powerful tool they might be to amplify political failure. Destabilising markets by roiling bonds is unlikely to end well. The consequences could be fearful.

Something snapped last week in Gilts, the UK’s GovernmentBond market. Normally I would call a sudden wobble in sentiment as a judder-moment, when something critical happens – like an athlete’s hamstring tearing – underminesconfidence and impacts market direction. Last week it was a succession of events suddenly overwhelming the market’s confidence in the Labour Government.

 But…. I smell a rat. Lots of them.

 I see my self-appointed job writing the Morning Porridge as cutting through the Noise to get to the Signal. At the risk of peeving lots of Tory and Reform readers, let me say what I suspect. I think what we are seeing in Gilts is a result of deliberate misinformation and deflection. I reckon the government is being overwhelmed by a deliberate programme of Weaponising the Gilts Market to undermine confidence.

When strange things happen, ask who benefits. In this case, theDark Minds of the Right Wing, who see what has been achieved in the USA, spotted the opportunity to undermine government. They don’t seek to boost the now largely irrelevant and clueless Tories, but Reform, who are, as yet, blank policy pages to be written on. They intend to be filling in these policy blanks.

The Right Wing weaponizing the Gilts Market is a pretty bigcharge to start off Monday morning. Some may think I’ve gone full foil-hat conspiracy theorist, but let’s go with it…

How low will Bitcoin go this time?

“Trading is playing market sentiment. Investment is aboutpredicting the future.”

Bitcoin believers are perfectly entitled to believe what they want to believe. The rest of us: too clever to fall for the hype, ortoo stupid to understand – depending on your perspective, have grandstand seats for the BTC “how low will it go this time” championship.  

 Bitcoin is the ultimate trading asset. It is the pure essenceof what a perfect market could be – a refined distillation of the beliefs and sentiment underlying it. BTC is largely untroubled by the difficult base questions that distort other assets, distractions such as the economy, monetary or fiscal developments, conflict and noise. At least that’s what it likes us to think.

For an asset class that is supposed to be defi from trad money and the ructions caused by the evils of fiat monetary manipulation, Bitcoin is highly correlated to traditional market weaknesses!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 13th 2026 – British Gas and Land Rover are why Britain is Broken.

“People will forget what you said and what you did, butthey will never forget how you made them feel.”

 After a busy few days in London, I need some light comicrelief this morning, so let’s figure out why Britain is really broken. It’s nothing to do with Government. It’s all about crap customer service and the treacle that makes Big Companies so crap. They no longer care. And that spreads like acancer around the economy. Trying to deal with large firms and the private utilities that run the UK is like daily root-canal surgery.

 The media and financial pages are full of worry and strifethis morning regarding the UK economy. How devastating will be the UK Budget? Will Sir Keir Starmer survive the Byzantine power struggle underway within Labour?

Forget the angst about budgets, taxes, inflation, and therest… I know why the UK is really, really broken. Government gets the blame, but the real issue is bad companies and utterly disinterested customer service… 

This morning let me lay the blame for the dismal state ofthe UK squarely on Land Rover and British Gas. Two classic British Brands that don’t give a flying **** about their customers.

Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 12th 2025 - BBCCrisis is a Disaster for the UK

“I would die in a ditch for the impartiality of the BBC.”

The BBC is/was the world’s most trusted broadcaster. It’simpartiality stood above the fake news and politicised opinion presented as irrefuttable facts pumped out by private channels. It was held to the highest standards, and when it’s seen to have slipped – as has happened – suddenly there is no stopping a tidal wave of manufactured shock and fury flooding the media space.

What has the Crisis at the BBC got to do with markets? Muchmore than you might think.

 Panorama-gate is shaping up to be on the major inflexionpoints in the UK’s long spiralling decline. The editing of Trump’s January 6th insurrection speech on a Panorama programme was ham-fisted and wrong. It looks like a clear breach of the BBC’s credo of truth and impartiality. There are multiplelevels of pain in terms of what this means for the UK.

 And, if the BBC is now broken – what now stands in the wayof fake news, media manipulation and propaganda dominating our lives?

 Let’s start with why does this matter for the UK:

Spitfire Strategic Capital, Tomorrow depends on Today.

“… bugles calling for them from sad shires.”

The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy withoutfighting. As Europe wakes up to the threat, the war in Ukraine shows how quickly the battlespace is evolving. Rearming the West requires a focus on decisive, scalable, deployable technologies to deter further aggression. Let me introduce Spitfire Strategic Capital – a new fund focused on War-Winning Defence Platforms.   

 Today is Armistice Day, an apt day to announce the launch of Spitfire Capital – Investing in War-Winning Defence Platforms.

 Being prepared for war is a lesson European nations are beingforced to relearn at speed. For the right reasons, Donald Trump has made clear hiding beneath the US defence umbrella is no longer an option. While Russia has been preparing to conquer, Europe’s spending priorities lay elsewhere.

 Spitfire Capital is a new hybrid private-capital fundspecifically designed to identify and accelerate the development, production and swift deployment of new, decisive war-winning weapons and supportingsystems for the West. In a world of escalating conflict risk, Spitfire’s goal is to finance the reestablishment of full-spectrum defence and deterrence.

Markets struggle with AI, Bonds and Tweets.

“You need me to lie to old people and scare them intobuying fake medicine? I get it.”

There is nothing like a Trump tweet to set the tone for the week. Feels like the markets are living on borrowed time re AI, US Treasuries and current valuations. All look strong, but what if the bottom falls out? Relax… the sun will come up tomorrow.

 Last Friday I wrote about my rising doubts on the sustainabilityof the AI Bubble: AI – Noise, Signal, Brace. I reckon the only way to stem the rising tide of doubt against markets is liquidity. Lots of it. Sure enough, everyone from Ray Dalio upwards is warning about what markets pumped with liquidity will mean – clue:upside. Many folk fear the New Fed will sash rates and resume QE to maintain the illusion of a strong economy by propping up markets. Great for returns… until it isn’t.

Pumping markets with cheap liquidity is hardly a new notion.Through 2009-2023, the QE era, we learnt that copious liquidity in the form of ultra-low interest rates translated not into investments into productive new plant, infrastructure, jobs and productivity gains, but into the financial asset market. By ballooning the balance sheets of central banks as they forced yields down by buying bonds, and all that money was responsible for one of the greatest stock rallies in global history.

Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 7th 2025: AI – Noise, Signal, Brace.

“Unprecedented market shocks occur with monotonous regularity.”

Is the AI bubble bursting? Who will be the survivorsand losers? Or is it more fundamental – US AI firms talk of spending billions, but what is China is doing AI better and cheaper? If China wins the AI race, then it will confirm more than just the waning of the American century. It willfundamentally shift valuations.

 That clashing klaxon of noise is the rising perception the AIBubble is about to pop. Suddenly, everyone is negative - creating immediate “guilt by association” contagion risks across global markets, which we all know are massively overweighted in favour of AI linked investments.

 All the predictable parallels with previous financial crashes are being drawn. The extremely high concentration risk is a massive concern. When the US stock market is up over 40% solely on whatever value AI might create in future revenues, and the underlying economy is looking, at best, mixed – it suggests speculation has got way ahead of common sense…

Take a second to list the reasons you should be worried – theywill probably include:

Go to www.morningporridge.com for full access to site and article.

Blain’s Morning Porridge November 5th 2025 – Rachel Reeves Tells it Like It Is?

“Controversial means “this will lose you votes.” Courageous means “this will lose you the election.”

 Yesterday saw bad political theatre in the UK. RachelReeves got up and warned everyone it’s going to be bad and therefore made it so. Acres of negative coverage and lots for the opposition to make noise about. But the reality is maybe very different. There is not that much [more thanusual] to worry about.

 Go to www.morningporridge.com for full comment.

Survived October? Back to full on Complacency…

“The real work is like rugby. Everything is connected. Everyplay has consequences.”

Yet again I was wrong and overly bearish. Markets survived October with barely a shrug. Everything is apparently fine and dandy.. nothing to worry about? Complacency and belief abound. We have been here before…. And what does Rugby tell us about markets?

Before I launch into markets… I have to step back and ask: whatdoes Rugby have to teach us about markets and the world?

It’s all about approach…

Rugby is a metaphor for life. It is fast, it is confusing, everyaction has consequences, and the best team does not always win. It’s about strategic awareness: seizing opportunities and turning them into points, while stopping the opposition from doing the same. You need critical game skills and tacticalprowess. The best teams excel by being motivated, being able to read the game laterally, and having the hard physical skills to triumph. That is why everyone fears the Kiwis and Irish. England should dominate European rugby with the biggest player pool but they don’t think much outside their drills and game-plan and repeatedly get beaten by smaller more passionate nations who are willing to think outside the proverbial box!

 Rugby is not a bad model for success.

Rugby and American Football are not alike in any way. TheAmerican game is stop-start, breaking down the opportunities into a series of stage-managed scripted specialist plays that remove much of the jeopardy and the risks of how fluid play offers goes awry.

 I found myself wondering what Rugby, American Football andthe current markets tell us, and the different national approaches. I was thinking how the scale of tech infrastructure spending in AI is a bit like one of these specialised team moments in American football… expensive, straight out the deck, but formulaic rather than innovative and lateral? Does doing things by the “play-book” mean we’re missing the fleeting real opportunities?

A Horror Story from 2035.

“The smug mask of virtue triumphant can be almost as horrible as the face of wickedness revealed.”

 What will the future look like? Many Porridge readersfear Technofeudalism – where a new aristocracy of big tech will replace democracy and make serfs of us all. What might it look like…?  

 It being Halloween, as so often happens in the Morning Porridge office, this morning a report from October 2035 crossed between worlds and arrived in the Morning Porridge’s inbox….

The Morning Porridge Oct 31st 2035 – Be Happy.Or else!

End of the month is never easy. As a pensioner still working60 hours a week, like everyone else I struggle to pay the bills.  There’s a couple of million for Electricity due to the Monks of Westinghouse, Baron Luckey of Gondor wants half a yard of $Trump to pay our share for the swarms and shoals of Andruil Drones that now protect these islands.

His boss, the Lord Theil, demands ever more gold (he’s stoppedaccepting dollars) for our access to the Palantir Health Service (formerly the NHS), while the London Recovery surcharge gets bigger every month following Duke Brin’s nuclear decapitation strikes on Facebook’s entire leadership at the start of Google’s hostile acquisition of Meta. (Did someone not tell him Nick Clegg had retired?). The bill from the Reform Corporation for water, road-tax, air-tax and the NBC Licence, (Nigel’s Broadcasting Company) is out of any proportion to the nothingless it delivers.

.....

Check out www.morningporridge.com for the whole thing..

“Come not between the dragon and his wrath”

This morning’s meeting in Busan, Korea was short and sweet. Goal achieved - the global meltdown that would have followed a rare-earth embargo by China has been avoided. What is more interesting is how it could change the current power set-up in Washington as Scott Bessent and Marco Rubio increasingly takecentre stage.

Two events and One Big Question for Global Markets toconsider this morning:

• What really happened in Busan, South Korea this morning?
• What did the Fed tell us about the path of US interestrates?
• What do they tell us about global power and influence?

The noise from the Trump/Xi meeting in Korea was exactly asexpected: There was de-escalation of Trade War rhetoric including port charges levied on shipping. A 1-year trade deal (cease fire) is in the offing. Tariffs were cut to 10%. Agreement was (apparently) reached that China will hold back on rare-earthexport controls while the USA scales back export bans on advanced chips. China will buy American Soya Beans – sparing US famers from bankruptcy. A full summit in Beijing next year, followed by a visit to DC. Thus spake Trump. (I would love to know what Xi thought.)

 The apparent agreement was all pretty much as alreadynegotiated by Trump’s adult-in-the-room Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. As such, it’s all positive for a less destabilised global trading system, although still plenty of things to be ironed out, like Russian oil and Ukraine. Markets should like it.

 However, the optics of the summit looked less than convincing.Trump stood there waiting to greet a great chum with charm, flattery and lashings of shmooze. He piled on the compliments. Xi barely acknowledged any of it – his comments about frictions and relationships emphasised this was a meeting of equals. But his body language looked like a man who was there in “necessary but distasteful toleration” mode of Trump.

 That doesn’t actually matter much. The die are already cast.

How much will AI cost, and how much can we afford?

 “The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincingthe world he didn’t exist..”

The AI Bubble floats on a wave of Confidence – confidencethe global economy needs it, the USA will lead it, the hyperscalers and AI firms can afford it, energy is not an issues, and competition from China, tech evolution and quantum are not issues. All the market sees is opportunity. Beenhere before.

There is a marvellous Scots word – Gallus. It describes someone with a certain amount of swagger, who is bold, convincing,and above all confident. Confidence is the greatest bluff in the book. Confidence is contagious. Confidence persuades where reason will not. I reckon a surfeit of over-confidence is at the root of every single major market correction and collapse. 

Despite all the concern, uncertainty and a growing sense ofinstability some of us feel in markets, and especially AI, confidence still defines the current market mood. Damn the torpedoes.. confidence is everything!

Donald Trump is a gallus man. His confidence is drivingthe US economy. Despite all the issues, the US economy has not collapsed in a sluff of the economic logic folk like myself confidently predicted from tariffs, inflation, trade, supply lines, etc. Earlier this week he inked a deal with Japan, adding to the trillions of dollars of foreign investment promises already heading America’s way. Trump tell us he’s going to personally allocate that money – which is news to most of the countries that made vague acknowledgements about exploring how to do more with America in return for Trump rowing back theirrespective tariff levels.

Other commentators describe Trump’s Middle East and currentAsian Tour as a Mafiosi Don visiting clients for the annual shakedown for his protection racket. Harsh, but not unfair….

It all sounds fantastic, trillions of foreign investmentscreating jobs and boosting the US economy, while all the tariff money foreign exporters are paying continues to pay down the national debt! What’s not to like about how Trump has transformed the economy and the rest of the world getsto pay for it?

But… Let’s see if any of that promised investment evermaterialises. In the meantime, bang that drum a little harder, because its giving America confidence...

THe other big confidence issue for the economy is AI – just howbig and affordable is it?

Big news yesterday was Sam Altman of Open AI turning thealtruistic not-for-profit into potentially the most valuable for profit IPO of all time… The new board structure looks… complex, but he is also a gallus man, (even though he does not look the most impressive of entreprenuers.. (It is just me that thinks he looks… hunted?))

Compare and contrast the Real World with Dreams

“And you have burned so very, very brightly…”

Gold has taken a bit of a tumble – but is thecorrection a buying opportunity? While the UK feels increasing glum ahead of the few choices in the November Budget, Elon Musk is confident on his demandsfor a $1 trillion upside bonus. They are illustrations of the contrast between hype, speculation and downside manipulation.

 If you want a simple illustration of how far fear and speculationin global markets are diverging from reality, have a quick think about what Gold, the UK and Tesla are telling us. While UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves tries to stretch the few billion pounds left in the Whitehall piggy-bank to balance the books, Elon Musk is calling anyone questioning his $1 trillion pay demands an idiot! As the West looks increasingly distracted by hype and politics, smart money is watching Gold – is the current correction a buying-window before the outlook deteriorates further?

 I reckon it might be - common sense seldom exhibits thespeed of a contagious pandemic!

 And if we’re going to talk about the UK, the obvious placeto start is Buenos Aires. I’ve read a truly ridiculous series of articles in the Torygraph this morning – calling for the UK to follow the example of Javier Milei in Argentina: Mileihas given Britain a serious economic lesson.

 Austerity… really? If a minor celebrity was to lose theirleg in a car crash… would you saw your own leg off to follow fashion? While the Guardian speculates the real reason Argentina voted for Austerity was Trump’s threats to walk away and pull US support to punish voters, the Torygraph praises voters’ common sense and willingness to drink deep of the deadly economic nightshade of austerity.

You can find the whole article on the Morning Porridge on www.morningporridge.com

"So, it’s a f*****g coin toss? That is what we get for 50billion dollars?”

 It is possible to cram Cataclysm, Armageddon and Apocalypseinto a single Morning Porridge at the start of a week that promises to be market friendly? Of course it is! There is plenty of stuff to worry about, but when the noise sounds so positive, the herd that is the market will keep on fooling themselves.. The higher they climb, the further there is to fall…

 That was an “interesting” weekend. I nearly scared myself todeath, and had some disturbing insights as to what comes next…. And then decided…. Relax… just go with the flow. Went for a swim, a sail, a pint, and a damn fine traditional roast Chicken dinner (winner, winner) with friends – what could possibly go wrong?

First up is this week’s Trump/Xi summit in Seoul. The groundwork is laid, both sides are talking up the “peace in our time” narrative on the trade war. American farmers will sell their soyabean mountain and avoid penury, while Trump and Bessent will hail it as the greatest ever deal in the history of greatest ever deals. Both sides will gloss over the nothingelseness thatwill accompany it – how China will retain the options over critical rare earths and Trump will never again mention punitive tariffs on the Middle Kingdom again – until he inevitably does. However, this week the market will love it.

Trump threatened. China pushed back. USA Lost and retreats 2steps. Xi  Wins and China moves forward. That’s basically how history will record it. Trump will spend his time telling everyone what a great deal he did. Xi will continue to expand his power, and China’s position as the dominant trading partner will gain further traction.

Second up is the extraordinary victory of La Libertad Avanza in Argentina. President Javier Miei’s party won 41% of the votes, despite the polls predicting a massive lashback after he was hammered by the Buenos Aires’ Peronistas just last month and a slew of corruption scandals mired his senior team and family. (Par for the course in Argentina.)

Yesterday Milei swung around the 14% deficit in the capitalstate. Extraordinary indeed. Apparently markets and the IMF had nothing to fear from unhappy Argentine voters – who gave Libertarian austerity and free-market reform and increased share of the mid-term vote, despite some 40% of the population in poverty.

Argentinian voters are cleary not daft. Maybe $40 bln of USsupport for the Peso and economy helped? Bloomberg quotes Billionaire Bill Ackman: “an important win for democracy, capitalism, and sanity, and a defeat for socialists.” Of course it is. (Pass me a bucket.) Trump said it clearer: If Milei “doesn’t win, we’re gone”.

See www.morningporridge.com for full article.

Call it Chaos, but we sure do live in interesting times..

“You know nothing John Snow…”

Chaos occurs when events break out their usual bounds, and it feels like markets are skirting on the edge! Relax. It’s normal in periods of acute change – as are happening now. The Game of Markets across long, medium and short-term horizons is constantly changing – I guess that’s what makes them interesting!

What an interesting world we live in. It’s not anything like the one I knew as a child, as a student, and a young banker… heck, it ain’t even like the one I knew a few years ago… But it is utterly fascinating… Call it Chaos, but it’s still full of opportunity to do the right thing… or otherwise.

The business of investment is about making the right calls for the long term. The skill of trading is understanding what the herd, the market, is thinking. That’s what all of us in this Game of Markets are trying to fathom each morning… what’s going to happen today, tomorrow and the days after that. Or short, medium and long term investment horizons as we like to kid ourselves.

There are apparently only two arguments to think about when trying to figure it out.. One is: history repeats itself. The other is: this time it’s different. What if it’s a combination of both?

For the long-term, in the History Repeating Itself camp we have the repeating cycle of empires – rise and decline. History shows empires typically last 2 Kondratieff Waves, the K2 Cycle of around 110-120 years. We’re seeing that today as the American Age as Global Hegemon comes under pressure. Give the American’s credit – under their leadership, where the USA was the arsenal of freedom and democracy the entire globe has seen a long-period of general peace, dramatic growth, rising living standards, and poverty diminish.

But all things pass. The last time the Global Hegemon changed the UK dropped down as the USA became the dominant industrial and military power.

The This Time it’s Different issue is it’s not exactly clear who or what will replace it. The Chinese would certainly like the role, but their economy already looks tired and is already showing signs of demographic pressure. For the record, I suspect the Chinese will still try to bluff their way into the role – not with military aggression, but by supporting distraction and trade dominance. A more likely outcome is the World evolves with South East Asia as the global nexus of growth and consumer wealth, which China competing for dominance in that new co-prosperity sphere. (Europe would do well to figure out how to be part of that – as part of the new global trade rails!)

The question for markets is how disruptive the coming changes will be.

Blain’s Morning Porridge Oct 22nd 2025 – As long as there is instability and uncertainty there will be the Yellow Metal

“Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty..”

Gold Prices stumbled earlier this week. It is a bursting bubble? Nope. Markets will remain uncertain – while the world’s geopolitical polarity is shifting Gold remains the safe-haven play. That shift is being accelerated by events as the stability that fuelled the last 80 years of growth is undermined by bad politics and division.

Much of the Financial Commentariat was determined to bury Gold yesterday – hailing the 6% price tumble as the start of an inevitable rout, a sign of a massively over-bought bubble bursting, and (inevitably) there was a shout from the crypto-crypt in the dank basement about its time as a safe-haven being over.. Whateva…

It was a correction, and suggests the Gold market might have got ahead of itself. Watch what the 200 day moving average does, or read the headlines, but ask yourself: did anything really change? Nope.

6% moves up and down are not uncommon across markets these days. There are some very clever teenage stock pickers who understand the complexities of current tech, know what the jargon and letter-salad of initials actually mean, and opine with such confidence on the golden future of AI abundance. They are probably somewhat frustrated the world’s oldest asset has been getting all the headlines recently… How very dare the Yellow Metal think it can still dominate markets!

But the reality remains… we live in increasingly uncertain times. Although Indian farmers may already have bought their daughters all the gold bangles they will need for the coming wedding season, and Chinese investors are worried about new margin requirements on gold investments… the World is not getting any more secure.

It is certainly becoming more polarised – not just in politics, but in terms of how market analysts are reading the tea leaves. We know Central Banks now hold more gold in value than they do US Dollars – which is a sure sign of something fundamental happening…. (And if you don’t know what… then may I humbly suggest you get off the bench and actually buy a very reasonably priced £10 per month Morning Porridge subscription.)

Here is a link to the story on the Morning Porridge Website

Blain’s Morning Porridge Oct 21st 2025: Time for a rethink on Tech Resiliency?

“Did someone forget to feed the hamster?”

Western economies are dependent on functional tech. Yesterday’s Amazon outage suggests the resiliency of tech infrastructure is creaking, raising multiple issues about dependency and costs. Could a shift in how companies secure against Tech vulnerabilities see the MAG3 firms at the core of global tech infrastructure hit?

When I opened Linked-in this morning, I was deluged in adverts from Amazon Web Services, telling me all about how they automate, create and reduce costs, while boosting my productivity. No surprise really, the spyware that watches our every keystroke would have picked up I was searching for info on yesterday’s outage. I posted a very rude message in reply.

What I was looking for was some data or narrative to back up for my thesis we might just have suffered the No-See-Um moment that breaks the myth of the West’s all powerful Tech?

We all think global tech is shiny and sparkly. But what if it’s just a couple of hamsters running round a wheel in their cage that keeps it all running? And what happens when one of them decides to take a nap, or Amazon forgets to feed them? (Power for Data centres is just one concern!)

Use this link to go to full story on website

Mutant Credit Cockroaches? Whatever next?

“Smart men go broke three ways: ladies, liquor and leverage.”

Markets feel increasingly nervous. Although someone has cranked up the party music to 11, and the euphoria is still pouring, concerns about banking and loan exposures are rising. If there is a wobble, then it’s likely to be leverage on leverage that sees a bunch of private credit lenders in trouble.

What will this week hold for markets? Trade wars? Peace deals? Inflation (maybe not as the US Govt is still in Shutdown)? A bank run? An invasion of mutant credit cockroaches? Who knows, who can tell..? This is heaven, this is hell… Reading through the financial press, it now feels there are more negative outlooks than positive.. Every financial market scribbler is predicting some kind of shocking sell-off in overpriced markets. Whateva…

If I am going to remain a contrarian… I may have to go out and find something positive to write about?

How about gold? According to reports, Global Banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries. That is not because of the “Great Debasement Trade” all the crypto-shills keep screaming in our faces as they seek to justify buttcon as the only alternative to fiat currencies which are “tools of financial repression by evil governments”. Strait out of Libertarian Money 101, and utter bollchocks.

Nobody has a greater belief in fiat currencies than Central Banks, but they are holding more gold because they are acutely aware of the current ructions in global markets, and they know the dollar’s role is global trade is evolving (ie devaluing and will lessen), and gold is a store of value. Simple as. Fiat money works. Simple as. Nothing in life is perfect – but some things work because they work. Central banks are holding gold because they know uncertainty and instability may roil markets – and they are being brutally realistic about how the world order is changing, and changing fast.

However, if there is one thing I am sure about, it is the street is not listening to dull, boring, predictable central bankers.. they should, but seldom do. What does get the market’s attention as dramatic moments of hi-drama and plunging red lines on the charts – by which time it’s definitionally too late!

In times of rising uncertainty, the big issue that scares the smarter minds in markets most are consequences. If one thing breaks… what else will fail in its wake?

Every day we are reminded of injustice in the UK – the fight of postmasters against the Post Office, or haemophiliacs against the medical indifference are just  the tip of an iceberg of a justice system loaded against the people. It’s only when it impacts directly do you realise just how lopsided UK planning has become. There is no social justice – just the jackboot of corporate greed being crushed into the face of humanity… forever.

Yesterday was a very bad day. My village is going to be sacrificed to make foreign investors rich. So much for a restful retirement…

I have written many times about the insanity of the Hamble Quarry – digging a dirty great hole right in the middle of a prosperous village to quarry gravel which nobody needs right next to homes, shops, schools and businesses. It was approved by the planning inspectorate yesterday. It’s a slap in the face for over 20,000 citizens in the area, who will see their home values impacted, and futures blighted. Already young people are leaving because they don’t want their kids trying to learn just meters away from a working quarry. The local economy will be decimated and the environment compromised.

Cemex, a Mexican firm specialising in Cement and Waste Management, has been given permission to quarry 1.7 million tonnes of gravel and sand from the very heart of the pretty seaside village of Hamble-le-Rice. Every single home in the village is within 500 meters of the site. The three schools are all in touching distance. Many homes will be blighted by massive berms put up to shield the quarry work.

A schoolkid asked the planning inspector at the appeal: “You would not build a school next to a quarry, so why dig a quarry next to a school?” He never answered her.

Why?

Blain’s Morning Porridge Oct 15 2025 – Catflap While The Dance Band on the Titanic Plays On

“ Damn the Torpedoes, full steam…. Boom. gurgle gurgle..”

 There is no stopping a market believing what it wants to believe. Tariffs, Trade Wars, Credit Cockroaches, BTC delusions, this market has it all, yet everyone is still dancing. Best thing to do might be to “Catflap” – walking away without saying anything to anyone.

Euphoric markets have a habit of watching all the wrong things. As I’ve written many times, markets are not clever – they demonstrate a remarkable ability to fool themselves and believe multiple improbable and conflicting things all at the same time. Blain’s Market Mantra No 3 states that: “Markets are not clever – they simply reflect the weighted stupidity of participants.”