Beyond Markets - Julius Baer

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In Conversation with GROW – China's Recent Policy Moves and Market Trends

Episode 280

Thursday, September 5, 2024 • Duration 31:33

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts

In this monthly China update, our experts analyse recent market movements and their implications for investors. They also discuss China’s property market, the evolving policy framework and its impact on Chinese households, the strengthening of the RMB and resulting currency trades, as well as the latest views on gold and Chinese government bonds.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

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The Week in Markets: Good economic data eases recession concerns

Episode 279

Tuesday, September 3, 2024 • Duration 07:52

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
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Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rising 2.6% y/y in July is a perfectly acceptable reading for the market. Excluding the notoriously lagged housing component, it would be 2.1%, right where the Federal Reserve (Fed) wants it to be. However, inflation has less relevance for the market now that the Fed has made it clear that its focus is on employment. Initial jobless claims have returned to 230,000, and the Q2 annualised GDP has been revised upwards to 3.0% q/q, both suggesting that the economy is far from entering a recession. The Chinese government may allow homeowners to refinance as much as USD5.4trn of mortgages, which would be good for consumer sentiment. The dollar/renminbi exchange rate has broken an important support line. A rising renminbi tends to lift other Asian currencies. Usually, when money goes into a currency, the assets denominated in that currency see a lift too.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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Asia turns a corner amid global equity turmoil (Moving Markets)

Episode 270

Tuesday, August 6, 2024 • Duration 14:46

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts

This is a special update from Julius Baer's partner show, Moving Markets.

Listen to our daily updates on Moving Markets at the links below:
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast/moving-markets-daily-news/id1628789317
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2AYJMvVqqIavsPP7v4YxEs?si=tpGFjNXYQYWD2NfLtI2XCA

After the global stock-market rout accelerated yesterday, with losses cascading across tech shares and Japanese equities crashing by the most in over a decade, Japanese stock indices have staged a turnaround and are leading gains in Asia today. In today’s special episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, shares his insights into the latest equity market developments and how he see things going forward. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on digital assets and talks about the prospects of a Trump trade.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

04:40 Equity market developments: Christian Gattiker (Head of Equity Strategy)

The Week in Markets - Situation in Israel unlikely to impact financial markets

Episode 179

Tuesday, October 10, 2023 • Duration 11:17

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
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The situation in Israel is fluid, but so far, the terrorist attacks of October 7 have not escalated into a regional conflict. The United States government wants to avoid high oil prices, especially with an election looming next year. The 10-year treasury yield has fallen from 4.8% prior to the attacks to 4.6% now. On Capitol Hill, the Republicans who control the House want slimmed down individual bills, the Democrats who control the Senate want a big omnibus bill. The latter means more federal government debt. The market may be sending the government a message that more debt means higher treasury yields. Since 1950, more than half of the S&P 500 index’s returns have come in Q4. We see this year as repeating the average, and look for a year end rally.

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D&I x Women@JB Episode: Breast Cancer Awareness Month – A CancerKind Workplace

Episode 178

Wednesday, October 4, 2023 • Duration 27:25

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
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In this special episode, we discuss the challenges of returning to work for breast cancer survivors and how organizations can help to ease the transition back into the workplace.

Sue Woodall, breast cancer survivor and founder of LiveWorkCancer sheds light on this complex topic in an open discussion with Pearlyn Wong, Head Investment Content & Campaigns APAC.

Chapters

(00:00) - Start
(01:37) - Introduction to Sue
(02:40) - Comparing Singapore to Australia
(04:49) - Sue’s breast cancer experience
(08:41) - Sue’s experience at work
(12:35) - What is a CancerKind Workplace?
(16:51) - Cultural and societal nuances for breast cancer
(19:03) - Tips for managers
(20:42) - Tips for those diagnosed while working
(24:15) - Concluding remarks

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The Week in Markets - US rates in focus - higher for longer

Episode 177

Tuesday, October 3, 2023 • Duration 06:45

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts

In this episode, we discuss the rates development in the US and Europe, and the different policy paths that both central banks are likely to take despite weakening consumer sentiments. In Europe, the indicators point to the ECB keeping a Hold in rates owing to very weak sentiment and as credit lending in Europe remains low. In the US, treasury yields jumped after the government shutdown is averted with the focus back on rates. We take stock of weakening consumer sentiment yet solid investment demand and unsustainable fiscal stance. We discuss what’s on the radar that could move US rates this week, which is labor market inputs. Basically, investors would like to see wage data that shows wage growth numbers rolling over while the Federal Reserve would like to avoid a situation where wage spiral is resurfacing again. In a nutshell, higher rates for longer mean a stronger USD against other major currencies.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo (Head of Fixed Income Research, Asia)

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Staying ahead of the Curve – Investing today, into the “Winners of Tomorrow”

Episode 170

Wednesday, September 27, 2023 • Duration 11:53

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts

In this episode, Serene Chua, Mandate Advisor at Julius Baer, and Jiazhi Chen, Head of Next Generation Investment Solutions at Julius Baer, share their insights about the megatrends that are shaping the future.

What are the “Winners of tomorrow”? How can we harness the megatrends of today to deliver investment returns? Find out more in this episode.

Speakers: Serene Chua, Mandate Advisor, Julius Baer Singapore

Jiazhi Chen, Head of Next Generation Investment Solutions, Julius Baer Zurich

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The Week in Markets - Benchmark treasury yield at 4.46% is competition for stocks

Episode 176

Monday, September 25, 2023 • Duration 16:10

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts

The 10 year treasury yield at 4.46% shows the market is not convinced that the inflation fight is done. The dollar likes higher yields, it also likes the fact that Germany’s preliminary September manufacturing PMI is at 39.8, the lowest since the pandemic mobility restrictions of 2020. At 148.4 to the dollar, the yen is it’s lowest since 1990. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said on Friday "We have yet to foresee inflation stably and sustainably achieve our price target. That's why we must patiently maintain ultra-loose monetary policy". Yet core inflation in Japan is 4.3%, and has been above the 2% price target since May. The fourth quarter is typically the best quarter of the year for the S&P 500 index, with an average return of 3.6%. In years when it rose 10% or more in the first three quarters of the year, the fourth quarter return was on average 4.6%. There are still five days to go before the third quarter ends, but so far this year, the S&P is up 12.5%.

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Panic in the aisles – how secure is our food future?

Episode 173

Wednesday, September 20, 2023 • Duration 22:35

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts

With an ever-growing population and ever-increasing pressures on our agricultural systems, just how secure is our food future? After a summer of wildfires, extreme heat, and Russia’s recent termination of the Ukraine grain deal, food inflation and food security are top of mind.

In this episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, joins host Emily Rookwood, Head of Publications, to discuss the situation, its causes, and potential solutions.

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The Week in Markets - Relentless move higher in treasury yield

Episode 175

Monday, September 18, 2023 • Duration 14:35

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts

At 4.33%, the 10 year treasury yield is just 3 basis points below a new high since 2006. If the yield is the same 15 weeks from now, the treasury’s full-year return will be negative for 2023, for a third year in a row, something that has never happened before.

The oil price is up 35% since May, but hasn’t been accompanied by other commodity prices. We find when oil uptrends are not confirmed by the broader complex, they are not sustainable. 80% of Saudi’s production cuts are being offset by increases in other countries. Add to that a peak in oil demand in 2024 as the world transitions to electric vehicles, and we look for oil at $75 a year from now.

The S&P’s long-run seasonal average shows the best time to be in the market is the end of the year, and this year the S&P has had a remarkably close fit with the average so far this year. The consensus looks for a 0.2% y/y increase in Q3 earnings, but excluding energy, they could be up 5%. We think the current stock market consolidation will be over by mid-October at the latest, and then there should be a rally into year-end.

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Beyond Markets – Details, episodes & analysis

Podcast details

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Apple Podcasts

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Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Beyond Markets – Details, episodes & analysis

Podcast details

Recent rankings

Apple Podcasts

Shared links between episodes and podcasts

Apple Podcast8

Spotify7

RSS feed quality and score

Publication history

Latest published episodes

Similar podcasts and content

Related Shows Based on Content Similarities

Related Shows Based on Content Similarities

Apple Podcast8

Spotify7

Apple Podcasts

Other2

Spotify