The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.
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Is Iran's War Spreading? Three Incidents, One Dangerous Pattern
Friday, October 2, 2026 • Duration 24:38
Masked men with vans full of fuel outside the British base that launched B-52s against Iran. A FlyDubai co-pilot stabbing his captain on a flight to Tel Aviv. A drone knocking out power to the Prophet's Mosque in Medina. Three incidents in one week, as Iran's 45-day deadline on the U.S. blockade expires and a third American carrier heads for the region.
Is Iran launching a terror campaign? I don't think so. If Iran is behind these incidents, it looks less like an offensive and more like a regime testing three different escalation paths, all before U.S. combat power peaks in late November.
In this solo brief, I walk through each incident the way I'd brief a commander: what we know, what we don't, the competing explanations, and my confidence level. Then I cover where this fits on Iran's escalation ladder and the indicators to watch over the next six weeks.
Chapters:
00:00 Is Iran escalating through terror?
02:47 Bottom line up front
03:41 Incident 1: RAF Fairford
08:44 Incident 2: The FlyDubai cockpit attack
12:49 Why this doesn't fit the pilot-suicide pattern
18:31 Incident 3: The Medina grid strike
21:30 Why now? The November window
23:54 What to watch next
Mentioned in this episode:
Gray zone operations with F. David Diaz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-RUmBaqkTQ&t=33s
Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap: https://www.youtube.com/@AttheWatersEdge-r5e/playlists
Watch the full video version, with maps and the flight data, on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlp8SIKfNIY
Members of The Briefing Room on YouTube get a companion video on state use of suicide terrorism: who becomes a suicide attacker, why states have used them, and why most stopped. https://www.youtube.com/@AttheWatersEdge-r5e/membership
Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
Trump needs a "LAST CHAPTER" in Iran | Trita Parsi
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 • Duration 30:07
Trita Parsi argues Trump is looking for a "last chapter" in Iran, an ending that makes the whole war look worth it, and that diplomacy won't give him one.
Iran's president flew to New York in the middle of a war to put a deal on the table, and Trump rejected it within days. Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, joins At the Water's Edge to explain what Iran was really offering and why both sides may be heading toward a third round of war.
We discuss why Iran's UNGA proposal mirrors the collapsed MOU, and why sanctions can hurt Iran without changing its policy. Parsi puts the odds of major U.S. escalation after the midterms at 70–80%, and explains why Iran may try to strike first. We also get into what a Democratic Congress could mean for the war and for Secretary Hegseth, and his argument that Europe is already a party to the conflict. On China, he covers Chinese commercial satellite imagery, China's role in holding down oil prices, and the soaring cost of escorting tankers through the Gulf. We close on why Tehran won't make irreversible nuclear concessions to a president it doesn't trust.
Chapters:
00:00 Iran's president comes to New York
00:43 Iran's new offer and the MOU
03:16 Are sanctions actually working?
05:52 Has Washington learned anything?
08:10 The odds of U.S. escalation
09:41 What if Democrats win the midterms?
12:03 Why Iran wants a deal before the midterms
14:08 Real offer or message to the world?
16:25 Is Europe already in this war?
20:31 Will China or Russia get involved?
26:06 Could Iran overplay its hand?
28:44 Where to find Trita Parsi
Guest:
Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
quincyinst.org
tritaparsi.substack.com
X: @tparsi
Watch the full video on YouTube: At the Water's Edge
Subscribe on Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast hosted by Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret and one of the last ground force commanders in Afghanistan. Views expressed by guests are their own.
Trump is TRAPPED in Iran's "DIPLOMACY" | Robert Pape
Monday, September 28, 2026 • Duration 28:59
Iran offered Trump a seven-day path to end the war. Robert Pape explains why taking it or refusing it both hurt him before the midterms.
Iran's president came to the UN in New York with a deal on the table: a quick end to the fighting and a return of nuclear inspectors, in exchange for money up front. University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape argues the offer is a trap. Any upfront payment from Washington costs Trump with his own base whether Iran delivers or not. Walking away keeps oil prices high heading into the midterms. Either way, Tehran wins.
Host Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret, and Pape also discuss:
- Why the June MOU fell apart, and why Pape says it's about the balance of power, not who broke it first
- What Kissinger's "diplomacy" really meant, and what it tells us about negotiating with Iran
- Pape's forecast for Pete Hegseth, and why he says this is only the beginning
- Why this winter could be the real reckoning for oil, diesel, and heating fuel, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve already drawn down
- What it means if France sends forces to Saudi Arabia to counter the Houthis, as it is reportedly considering
- Why a Europe pulled into the Middle East is a gift to Putin
The rest of the Q&A, including whether Israel would attempt an assassination on U.S. soil and Pape's case that Netanyahu isn't running Trump's war, is available now to Briefing Room members on our YouTube channel and will be released for everyone later this week.
Follow Robert Pape's analysis on The Escalation Trap:
https://escalationtrap.substack.com
Subscribe to At the Water's Edge on Substack:
https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast hosted by Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret, taking a practitioner's view beyond the headlines.
Why Our Special Forces Are Losing the Silent Battle
Sunday, September 27, 2026 • Duration 01:05:53
Joe Stabley is a Special Forces medic turned physician assistant — one of the most demanding career fields in the military, followed by a doctorate-adjacent civilian one. By any outward measure, he was a success. He also spent the better part of a decade managing suicidal ideation that started with a friend's death on a peacetime deployment before 9/11, and that he describes as something he still lives with today, not something he's recovered from.
This conversation traces that whole arc: Jason's suicide in the Sinai when Joe was 19, two more friends lost in the years that followed, a breakdown in an ER that led him to the edge of a freeway overpass, an Adderall dependency that started as a PA-school fix, and the VA and Wounded Warrior Project support that ultimately got him here — now a member of WWP's national campaign team. Joe calls this the most raw interview he's ever given, and it shows.
If you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text 988 (Suicide & Crisis Lifeline), or reach the Veterans Crisis Line at 988, press 1.
This is Episode 4 of Still Here, a five-part series produced in partnership with Wounded Warrior Project for Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. Catch up with Episodes 1–3 (Zach, Lindsey, and Sam) if you haven't yet. Episode 5 — Lyndsay Tkach, WWP's Director of Mental and Brain Health Services, closing out the series — drops next week.
Chapters:
0:00 Welcome, and introducing Joe
0:17 Setting up the paradox: a celebrated medic who decided to die
2:38 Pre-9/11: Jason's suicide at a peacetime outpost in the Sinai
9:08 Iraq, 2007: losing Rob Perelli and carrying the weight forward
11:07 Coming home to a healthcare system that felt broken
13:12 Does military life itself brutalize people, combat or not?
14:31 Genetics, childhood, and service: combat as catalyst, not cause
18:06 Has suicide prevention actually improved since he was 19?
20:14 Was Jason's death alone enough to explain everything?
22:28 "I dedicated my entire life to medicine" — and the weight of not saving people
26:03 "This is the measuring stick by which I judge my existence"
26:52 Medical retirement, and the Green Beret actuarial tables
28:48 Eleven years in, and losing a second friend right after the first
32:48 How does a guy with everything going for him get here?
33:04 PA school begins
33:24 A panic attack in uniform, and the trigger that came out of nowhere
39:23 Diagnosis, Adderall, and a dependency he didn't see coming
40:47 The ER, a schedule with no rhythm, and the first suicidal moment
52:05 Did being a provider make it harder to see it in himself?
52:48 Getting help: the VA, Vet Centers, and finally talking
56:03 "A chronic condition you're managing in real time"
56:18 His advice: don't carry this alone
1:05:32 Closing thoughts
Learn more about Wounded Warrior Project: woundedwarriorproject.org
The Real Reason Saudi Arabia Is Buying 48 F-35s
Friday, September 25, 2026 • Duration 15:58
For more than a decade, Israel has been the only country in the Middle East flying a fifth-generation stealth fighter. That's about to change.
The Trump administration has approved the sale of 48 F-35s and 49 engines to Saudi Arabia. Congress has 30 days to object. It almost certainly won't.
But the purchase is counterintuitive. The F-35 has lost some of its luster: one was confirmed hit by radar-directed Iranian ground fire during Operation Epic Fury, and the war in the region suggests cheap drones may beat exquisite airframes. So why would Riyadh spend big on a jet whose stealth advantage has an expiration date?
Scott Kelly, former Green Beret and one of the last ground force commanders in Afghanistan, argues the answer has less to do with military effectiveness than with regime survival. A drone force at scale requires a large, competent ground military, and a competent military is a coup risk. Forty-eight pilots are not.
In this episode:
- Why monarchies prefer air forces to armies
- How the F-35 locks Saudi Arabia into the U.S. defense industrial base for decades
- "Sell the gun, control the bullets": arms sales as permanent dependency
- Israel's legally guaranteed Qualitative Military Edge, and why the Saudi jet will be a U.S.-locked, less capable version of Israel's F-35I
- Turkey, Qatar, and the UAE waiting in line
What does this mean for Israel? That's in the members-only companion episode in The Briefing Room on YouTube and in the write-up on Substack.
Join the Briefing Room: https://www.youtube.com/@AttheWatersEdge-r5e
When the Military is Pulled into Politics | Robert Pape
Thursday, September 24, 2026 • Duration 31:28
The midterms are five and a half weeks away, and Professor Robert Pape says most of the warnings are aimed at the wrong window. Political violence around elections isn't mainly about intimidating voters before Election Day. The real danger zone opens the moment the polls close and the counting starts, and it runs all the way through certification. The question is whether the losers will accept the loss.
Pape joins Scott to talk about his new book, Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism. It draws on five years of research and 20 national surveys of support for political violence in the United States. They get into the domestic escalation trap America is walking into, why the Iran war could give the president much stronger legal footing to use the National Guard or the military at home than he had in 2020, why the guardrails that held in 2020 are gone, and what service members need to understand before any order comes.
Get the book: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Own-Worst-Enemies-Populism/dp/1620979586/ref=sr_1_1?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.vs_iGQNW5qgYzmPAhBuYLw.d8JMeR0ou3Gdzt5HvoGc6u1M8nsI9WC3xo8dzqM5_Ec&dib_tag=se&keywords=9781620979587&linkCode=qs&qid=1790261780&s=books&sr=1-1
Robert Pape's Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com
The Invisible War: How Gray Zone Attacks Work | fmr. NSC director F. David Diaz
Thursday, September 24, 2026 • Duration 57:42
Sabotage. Arson. Drone swarms over critical infrastructure. Cyber intrusions into American water utilities. Gray zone attacks are built to look like accidents, fall between agencies, and do their damage before anyone connects the dots.
Fmr. NSC Director F. David Diaz, a Marine officer turned State Department and Joint Staff strategist who now teaches at Georgetown, joins Scott to break down his new Council on Foreign Relations report on gray zone attacks against U.S. allies and partners. They cover what makes an attack "gray zone," why deniability doesn't have to last forever to work, and the campaign recognition problem. They also get into why Russia is reportedly shifting its targeting toward smaller defense companies in Europe and why no one in the U.S. government clearly owns the problem. Plus: why institutional reform tends to be "written in blood," and what government and industry can do before it comes to that.
Read the CFR report, Gray Zone Attacks Against U.S. Allies and Partners:https://www.cfr.org/reports/gray-zone-attacks-against-u-s-allies-and-partners
Subscribe on Substack:https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
Note: Grayzone Advisory, sponsor of the show, is a consulting firm and not in the business of conducting gray zone operations. Learn more at grayzoneadvisory.com.
She Didn't Look Like a Veteran in Crisis. That Was the Problem.
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 • Duration 30:19
Sam Hargrove spent years being known for her smile — while privately battling a rage she couldn't explain, seven rounds of anger management, and a night she nearly drove her car into a tree. A communications specialist caught in an explosion in Iraq, Sam faced a specific kind of dismissal on top of everything else: "ain't nothing wrong with you," the running joke aimed at a "chair force" veteran who didn't fit anyone's picture of what combat trauma looks like.
This conversation covers the explosion, the personality change that followed, the moment her godson saw her rage and got scared, the night in the rain that nearly ended differently, and how Wounded Warrior Project's Warrior Care Network and an inpatient program at Emory gave her the follow-up care the VA's "initial push" didn't. She's now a WWP peer leader and national campaign team member — someone other veterans call at 3 a.m.
If you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text 988 (Suicide & Crisis Lifeline), or reach the Veterans Crisis Line at 988, press 1.
This is Episode 3 of Still Here, a five-part series produced in partnership with Wounded Warrior Project for Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. Catch up with Episode 1 (Zach) and Episode 2 (Lindsey) if you haven't yet. Episode 4 — Joe, a fellow Green Beret whose story takes a very different turn — drops this Sunday.
Chapters:
0:00 Cold open & recap of the series so far
1:06 Welcome, and introducing Sam
1:37 A generational connection: same war, different era
2:54 Setting the scene: an explosion in Iraq
3:20 Seven anger management classes, and the day her godson saw her rage
6:15 "Black female in the chair force": identity, stigma, and the VA
6:58 "Ain't nothing wrong with you" — the running joke
8:44 The explosion itself, and what she still doesn't know
9:31 How the rage and drinking built over time
10:36 "Shut up and color": why she never sought help in uniform
12:33 A hair-trigger she couldn't explain
13:23 Coming home: losing the Fourth of July
14:16 The night she decided to end it
16:45 What was scarier: dying, or asking for help
17:25 VA vs. Wounded Warrior Project: why follow-up mattered
18:35 Inside the Emory inpatient program
21:28 Her Emory circle vs. her military circle
22:17 Losing people to suicide, including an uncle in November
24:29 "He wasn't weak, he just couldn't fight anymore"
26:43 What to do if you're worried about someone
28:17 "Check on your happy friends"
29:55 Next week: Joe's story
Learn more about Wounded Warrior Project: woundedwarriorproject.org
This episode is brought to you by Grayzone Advisory.
At the Water's Edge is hosted by Scott Kelly. Follow for weekly conversations on national security, geopolitics, and the people who serve.
What Happens If the US Uses a Nuclear Weapon on Iran | Robert Pape
Monday, September 21, 2026 • Duration 58:08
University of Chicago professor Robert Pape (Bombing to Win, The Escalation Trap) is back for his weekly read on the U.S.-Iran conflict — and this one goes to a darker place than usual. Pape lays out how Iran is quietly becoming an oil hegemon through the Houthis and Iraqi militias, why the IRGC's threat to "shock the world" might be a signal about Pickaxe Mountain, and what actually happens — militarily, economically, and politically — if the U.S. or Israel uses a tactical nuclear weapon to try to end it. Scott and Pape also cover the 5-stage escalation trap framework, the case for offshore balancing, a possible Korean-style armistice in Ukraine, and whether recent U.S. strikes could constitute war crimes.
Topics:
01:09 — Iran's rise as an oil hegemon
08:30 — Inside Pickaxe Mountain: can we even reach it?
14:59 — The case against a tactical nuclear strike
18:25 — Breaking the taboo: America as global pariah
24:48 — Political fallout and the road to a ground war
37:03 — The escalation trap, explained
46:08 — Europe, Ukraine, and the case for an armistice
52:00 — War crimes, morality, and power
Follow Robert Pape's analysis at escalationtrap.substack.com. Pape returns Thursday to preview his new book, Our Own Worst Enemies.
Subscribe to At the Water's Edge on Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
The Houthis Just Dragged Europe Into the Iran War
Friday, September 18, 2026 • Duration 16:17
The Houthis just took the entire Red Sea coastline — and it's about to drag Europe into a war it wanted no part of.
In ten days, Houthi forces captured Yemen's Red Sea coast, seized the strait's key islands, and helped force the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's emergency oil pipeline — closing the second major chokepoint Saudi Arabia needs to move crude, right after Hormuz. Brent crude is over $107 a barrel. The U.S. Navy is stretched across two flashpoints with one fleet. Saudi Arabia asked Washington for strikes and got turned down — twice — the same way Trump got turned down by the Gulf states six months ago. So Riyadh turned to an unlikely partner: Israel, now sharing intelligence with Saudi Arabia against a common enemy.
And Europe, heading into winter with gas storage at its lowest level in 15 years, is watching Italy break from Brussels and send warships to the strait alone.
Scott breaks down how a regional shipping crisis turns into a transatlantic energy emergency — and asks the uncomfortable question: did anyone benefit from letting this happen?
Topics covered: the Houthi offensive and timeline · the oil market shock · why the U.S. Navy is tapped out · the Trump-Saudi "two no's" · Israel's quiet pivot into Saudi intelligence sharing · Europe's winter energy squeeze · Italy's unilateral naval deployment
Enjoyed this one? Like, subscribe, and share it with a friend. For the full briefing deck behind this episode and more, subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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