At the Water's Edge – Details, episodes & analysis

In this conversation, Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the pressing issues surrounding America's national debt and fiscal health. He explores the implications of government shutdowns, the role of deficits in economic growth, and the structural challenges posed by entitlement programs. Holtz-Eakin emphasizes the need for political leadership to address these issues and the importance of long-term thinking in economic policy. He also touches on the Federal Reserve's independence, the impact of tariffs, and the future of social security, providing insights into how these factors intertwine with national security and global economic dynamics takeaways America's national debt is a significant concern that has been growing for decades. Government shutdowns have minimal economic impact but highlight political dysfunction. Deficits can hinder economic growth and limit opportunities for future generations. Entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare contribute to structural deficits. Political leadership has failed to address the looming fiscal crisis effectively. The future of Social Security is uncertain, with potential cuts looming in the next seven years. AI may improve productivity, but it won't solve fiscal issues overnight. Sovereign wealth funds are not a viable solution for the U.S. due to a lack of surplus. Tariffs raise revenue but can harm economic growth and are a regressive tax. Supply chain resilience is crucial for national security and economic stability. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Douglas Holtz-Eakin 04:49 Government Shutdown Dynamics 07:57 Impact of Shutdown on Fiscal Health 12:49 The Deficit Dilemma 17:44 Entitlement Programs and Structural Deficits 22:46 Potential Solutions for Social Security 26:47 The Role of AI and Sovereign Wealth Funds 30:57 Tariffs and Global Supply Chain Fragility 32:15 Supply Chain Resilience Post-Pandemic 34:02 Government's Role in Supply Shortages 35:30 Long-Term Thinking in American Politics 36:51 Congressional Accountability and Military Actions 38:25 Influence of Special Interests in Politics 38:49 Understanding the Congressional Budget Office 41:54 The Future of the Dollar and Global Trade 44:40 The Federal Reserve's Independence and Its Importance 48:58 Comparing Monetary Policies: U.S. vs. Other Countries 53:54 National Security and Fiscal Policy 57:43 Bipartisan Solutions for Economic Reform Find out more about Douglas Holtz-Eakin and the American Action Forum here

In this conversation, Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow at CSIS, discusses the evolving dynamics of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and its implications for global governance, US-China relations, and regional partnerships. She highlights China's ambitions to reshape the international order, the complexities of India-China relations, and the significance of recent developments within the SCO. The discussion also touches on the risks associated with China's growing confidence, the appeal of its development model, and the potential for alternative financial systems. Levin emphasizes the importance of understanding these dynamics for American businesses and policymakers. 00:00 Introduction to Henrietta Levin and Her Background 07:58 European Perspectives on China 11:04 Understanding the Shanghai Cooperation Organization 14:03 China's Long-Term Goals with the SCO 16:56 China's Vision for Global Governance 20:15 The Significance of the Recent SCO Summit 23:12 China-India Relations and Their Implications 25:57 The Future of the SCO and Regional Dynamics 30:23 China's Growing Influence in Asia 36:10 Contrasting Development Models: China vs. the West 41:03 The SEO and Alternative Financial Systems 46:58 Turkey's Role in the SEO and Its Complex Relations 54:19 Navigating US-China Relations: Strategies and Outcomes

Send us a text summary In this conversation, Ethan Brown discusses the evolution of close air support (CAS) and the critical role of Joint Terminal Attack Controllers (JTACs) and Tactical Air Control Party (TACP) members during the Global War on Terror. He highlights the importance of air-ground integration, the lessons learned from past operations, and the future challenges faced by the TACP community in an era of great power competition. The discussion emphasizes the trust dynamic between ground forces and JTACs, the technological advancements in air power, and the need for continued prioritization of close air support capabilities within the Air Force.contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com takeaways The Global War on Terror fundamentally changed air-ground integration. JTACs played a crucial role in close air support operations. The TACP community is often overlooked despite their importance. Close air support requires detailed planning and situational awareness. Trust between ground forces and JTACs is essential for mission success. Technological advancements have significantly impacted air power capabilities. Lessons learned from past incidents shape current practices in close air support. The future of the TACP community is uncertain within the Air Force. Close air support is not just about calling in airstrikes; it's about command and control. The evolution of warfare necessitates a reevaluation of JTAC roles. Sound Bites "This was the CAS War." "The most dangerous thing we do is call in close air support." "The buck stops with the ground force commander." Chapters 00:00Introduction to TacP and Close Air Support 04:43Understanding Close Air Support 08:04The Role of JTACs in Modern Warfare 10:57The Importance of TacP Training and Knowledge 13:42Challenges and Risks in Close Air Support 16:39Lessons Learned from Historical Incidents 19:47The Dynamics of Trust in Air-Ground Integration 35:27Building Trust in Combat Operations 43:38The Evolution of Close Air Support 46:51Real-Life Examples of Close Air Support 52:33The Future of JTACs in Modern Warfare 01:02:34The Air Force's Commitment to Close Air Support Support the show

Send us a text In this  episode, Scott interviews Tim Mak, an American journalist living in Ukraine, about the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Tim runs a publication called The Counter Offensive, which focuses on telling the stories of the Russian invasion in Ukraine through human interest stories. They discuss various topics including the state of the conflict, the role of the international community, the impact on the Ukrainian people, and the long-term effects of the war.The Counter Offensive: https://www.counteroffensive.news/Contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text Guest David Kilcullen. The conversation explores the reasons behind America's failure in Afghanistan and the consequences of the Taliban retaking Kabul. It delves into the concept of counterinsurgency and its application in different contexts. The discussion highlights the mistakes made in Afghanistan, such as the failure to negotiate a peace settlement with the Taliban, the expansion of ISAF without understanding the local dynamics, and the attempt to replicate the surge strategy from Iraq. The disconnect between military leaders and civilian decision-makers, as well as the lack of accountability, are also discussed. The conversation with Dave Kilcullen explores the failures and lessons learned from the war in Afghanistan. Kilcullen highlights the lack of accountability within the institution and the inability to adapt to changing environments. He emphasizes the importance of a fighting force that can critique conventional wisdom and adapt when necessary. The collapse of the Afghan government and military is attributed to a focus on central government institutions rather than local governance systems. The relationship with Pakistan is discussed, with Kilcullen noting their fear of strategic encirclement and their desire to keep Afghanistan weak. He also emphasizes the need for better civilian-military coordination, political engagement, and a willingness to learn from past mistakes in future conflicts. Counterinsurgency by David Kilcullen The Ledger: Accounting for Failure in Afghanistan by David Kilcullen and Greg Millscontact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text The conversation explores the concept of readiness in the military and the challenges of balancing people-first initiatives with the pursuit of readiness. It delves into the definition of readiness and its various components, such as individual and unit training, equipment functionality, and supply. The conversation also discusses the Army's training cycle and the role of CTC rotations in preparing units for deployment. The impact of funding on readiness is explored, particularly in relation to personnel shortages and the need for modernization. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the tension between taking care of soldiers and maintaining readiness, highlighting the trade-offs between quality of life issues and training priorities. The conversation explores the challenges of balancing training and readiness with the well-being of soldiers and their families. It highlights the need for predictability and stability in training schedules to support soldiers and their families. The conversation also discusses the loss of training management mastery in the Army's officer corps and the focus on immediate results rather than long-term readiness. The impact of toxic leadership and the officer career track on training cycles and decision-making is also examined. The conversation concludes with a call for a better balance between training and soldier well-being, as well as the need for metrics that measure morale and command culture. contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text In this episode Scott interviews Leo Blanken (PhD), an associate professor of defense analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School, about innovation as a tool of national security. They discuss the need for innovation in the rapidly changing strategic and technological landscape, the challenges faced by the US military in adapting to these changes, and the importance of a comprehensive national security strategy. They also explore the role of the defense industrial base and the relationship between the government and the private sector in fostering innovation. Dr. Blanken emphasizes the need for the military to slow down and be more thoughtful in its approach to innovation, focusing on purpose and capability rather than just grabbing technology for its own sake. The conversation highlights the importance of culture and incentives in driving innovation and transformation in the United States. It emphasizes the need for the military to leverage education opportunities as a way to foster mid-range innovation and develop strategic assets. The discussion also touches on the challenges of partnering with foreign forces and the need to understand their specific needs and priorities. The conversation concludes by addressing the issue of sacred cows in the defense budget and the importance of having tough conversations to drive innovation and question traditional approaches.Leo Blanken (PhD) website: https://faculty.nps.edu/ljblanke/contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text The conversation explores the competition and strategic implications of space exploration and activities between states. It discusses the role of the US Space Force, the reasons for the increasing focus on space as a domain of competition, and the activities of geopolitical rivals such as China and Russia. The conversation also delves into the concept of irregular warfare in space and the potential impact of privatization on space activities. Overall, the discussion highlights the need for strategic thinking and cooperation in the space domain. Takeaways Space has become a new domain of competition between states, driven by advancements in technology, increased access to space, and the pursuit of national security interests. The US Space Force is a military organization focused on protecting national security interests in space and supporting joint operations. Geopolitical rivals such as China and Russia have their own space programs and objectives, which may differ from those of the United States and its allies. Space activities can be categorized as regular warfare or irregular warfare, with the latter involving actions below the threshold of armed conflict. The privatization of space activities offers opportunities for innovation and cost-effectiveness, but there is a need to balance commercial involvement with the inherent responsibilities of the government. Link to Buy "Fight for the Final Frontier: Irregular Warfare in Space" https://a.co/d/jgiT0Ce  Contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text Liza Tobin, Senior Director of the Economy Team at the Special Competitive Studies Project, discusses China's systemic rivalry with the United States and the need for a strong American industrial policy. She explains why China is the main geopolitical rival and outlines its goals for global dominance. Tobin also highlights the challenges the US faces in competing with China's brute force economics and the need for a coherent counter strategy. She emphasizes the importance of investing in the basic building blocks of AI leadership and the role of the US government in buying down risk and enabling companies to scale up. The conversation explores the role of government funding in research and development (R&D) and the challenges of relying on the private sector for critical national needs. It highlights the risks of dependency on China for critical infrastructure and the importance of investing in national objectives. The discussion concludes with a call to rebuild industrial capacity and an invitation to the AI Expo Link to AI Expo: https://expo.scsp.ai/about/Contact the Show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text With death tolls rising on all sides, Israel's military operation in Gaza to rescue it's hostages and root out the Hamas terrorists that attacked it on October 7th continues to grind on. As imagines of Palestinian suffering reach audiences around the globe, South Africa has brought charges of genocide against Israel, claiming that the suffering of Palestinians isn't a tragic but inevitable result of Israel exercising its right to self defense, but instead a deliberate plan to destroy them as a nation. To unpack this, Francis Boyle (PhD) and Professor Amichai Cohen share their insights on the merits of South Africa's case, the role of the International Court of Justice, and how this case and recent rulings by the court will impact events moving forward. Francis Boyle (PhD): https://law.illinois.edu/faculty-research/faculty-profiles/francis-boyle/Professor Amichai Cohen: https://en.idi.org.il/experts/1491contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show