In this episode, Mawer portfolio managers and analysts discuss what they fundamentally look for in a bank as an investment. Specifically, how they view banks and the industry trends, as well as local dynamics, and ultimately what makes each of these businesses both unique and attractive. David Ragan discusses Scandinavian banks, highlighting Handelsbanken's smart lending and DNB's stability. Josh Samuel analyzes DBS in Singapore, emphasizing its low cost of funds and high ROE. Grayson Witcher focuses on J.P. Morgan in the U.S., noting its strong management and unique financial assets, while Alex Romaines examines First Citizens Bank in the U.S., which capitalized on market turmoil. Mark Rutherford covers Canadian banks, noting their conservative strategies and high ROE. Siying Li discusses HDFC Bank in India, and Asim Hussain explores Mitsubishi UFJ in Japan, emphasizing their unique upward-sloping yield curve.
Key Takeaways:
- The ideal bank investment is stable, lends to reliable clients, and operates in a rational, well-regulated market. Diversification in lending, funding, and economic exposure helps prevent insolvency and builds resilience, crucial in a highly leveraged industry.
- The Scandinavian banking environment is stable and well-regulated, with rational competition and prudent lending. Banks like Sweden's Handelsbanken and Norway's DNB provide consistent returns, low loan losses, and steady growth, supported by smaller, consolidated markets and strong economic stability.
- DBS in Singapore sustains strong net interest margins and 15–16% ROE. Strong management boosts investor returns through higher payouts, reducing risks from limited growth in foreign markets.
- U.S. banks face intense competition with little brand differentiation, often competing on interest rates alone. While experienced in managing risk, they are vulnerable in recessions. Banks trade at lower valuations than other sectors due to weaker competitive advantage.
- J.P. Morgan stands out in the U.S. market due to its strong management, high returns, low leverage, and strategic acquisitions during downturns. It diversifies through unique assets, investment banking, and asset management, enhancing resilience.
- The U.S. banking industry is fragmented and competitive, with a history of crises. Fragility creates opportunities for well-managed banks trading below intrinsic value.
- Canadian banks are highly consolidated and operate with a leveraged model, lending and raising equity. They now generate significant revenue from wealth management and insurance, reducing dependence on loan spreads. Strong regulatory relationships foster stability, with banks earning attractive returns while supporting economic growth.
- HDFC Bank, India’s largest private bank, has strong management and benefits from a growing economy. With low non-performing loans and high ROE, it continues gaining market share from public sector banks, despite short-term challenges from its recent acquisition.
- Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's largest bank, has a rich history and significant market share. With an upward-sloping yield curve and a focus on digitalization, it stands to benefit from rising interest rates, driving potential profit growth despite past challenges in the Japanese banking sector.
Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager
Guests: David Ragan, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager, Joshua Samuel, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst, Grayson Witcher, CFA, AB Mawer Portfolio Manager, Alex Romaines, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst, Mark Rutherford, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager, Siying, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst, Asim Hussain, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst
For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast
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Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.
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