Alpha Trader taps into topics and trends offering in-depth analysis of the market from the perspective of a trader. Hosted by former Seeking Alpha VP of Content Aaron Task and Seeking Alpha Managing Editor of News, Stephen Alpher, the show will feature discussions of the latest news and regular guests from among the smartest traders in the market today.
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This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.
Among the topics covered:
There are lots of positives going into 2022, says Santos, expecting the pandemic to fade further, inflation to moderate, and growth to remain strong. For now, at least, inflation should prove to be a boon to corporate profits. The only thing holding the JPMorgan Asset Management team from being uber-bullish is the starting point for stocks - it’s been a big two years for equities, and valuations are perky as we end 2021.
JPMorgan’s just-completed Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report looks out to the next 10-15 years, and Santos notes it’s somewhat easier to predict returns over this longer period than over the next 12 months. That report sees U.S. equities returning an average of just over 4%. The better opportunities, says Santos, can be found in more reasonably valued Europe and developing markets.
This is Alpha Trader’s final podcast. It’s been a great run over the past two+ years, and we’d like to thank all of our fantastic guests and our sponsor CME Group.
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Playing the Omicron wild card - Scott Bauer joins Alpha Trader
Wednesday, December 22, 2021 • Duration 23:19
This week’s Alpha Trader features host Stephen Alpher speaking with Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy (co-host Aaron Task is off this week).
Among the topics discussed:
The recent market stumbles probably have a lot more to do with the Omicron variant, rather than the Fed speeding up its pace of policy tightening, suggests Bauer. For now, Omicron is more about cases, rather than serious illness, but it’s too early to have a handle on how this plays out.
Of that Fed tightening, Bauer isn’t too worked up about the central bank’s “plan” to maybe hike three times in 2022. That would still leave short rates near historic lows, and even a move in long rates to the 2.5% area shouldn’t pose much issue for the economy.
While leaning bullish on stocks right now, Bauer isn’t trying to hit any home runs thanks to the Omicron wild card. He’s been selling volatility on spikes, noting that seemingly every market downdraft of late has been quickly faded (and he’s using the subsequent rallies to buy back that vol).
Looking into 2022, he’s fan of the recently hit big banks, expecting players like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to do well alongside the continuing strong economy.
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Capturing the 5G opportunity - Bruce Liu joins Alpha Trader podcast
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 • Duration 38:01
This episode of Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Brue Liu, CEO at Esoterica Capital, and portfolio manager of the Esoterica Thematic ETF Trust (WUGI).
Among the topics discussed:
5G technology is much more than just an upgrade from 4G, says Liu. If one thinks of 4G as enabling the mobile internet, 5G will allow the digitization of every aspect of our lives - from streaming to smart homes to smart factories to remote healthcare to self-driving cars. Another difference - if 4G was mostly a U.S. phenomenon, 5G is global.
The evolution to 5G technology will first be felt in semiconductors as all devices will require upgrades. Among Esoterica’s top ten holdings are Nvidia (NVDA), Xilinx (XLNX), Marvell (MRVL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).
Speaking of the recent crackdown by Beijing on China’s large tech companies, Liu says these regulatory developments have been a long time coming. The country’s leadership has long felt the tech giants have been extraordinary beneficiaries of hyper-growth, and now it’s time to share some of the wealth, says Liu. As recently seen with Meituan (MPNGF), the companies will reach a settlement with the government, agree to changes, pay a fine, and move along.
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Alpha Trader #17 - Fear turns into fear of missing out - Alpha Trader talks with Helene Meisler
Tuesday, February 11, 2020 • Duration 33:27
This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with veteran Wall Street technician and current Realmoney.com columnist Helene Meisler. Was that it? The great correction of early 2020 was a relatively brief and shallow one. Just days after a bit of fear entered the markets, the major U.S. averages are marking (or close to) new all-time highs. Meisler expects another modest move down is necessary to wring out a few more of the excesses that were evident a few weeks ago. The moonshot in Tesla (TSLA) is the very definition of parabolic, says Meisler, and while the move down has been panicky (as one would expect), she's looking at the $650 area for support. That discussion leads to a bullish idea: The anti-Tesla, i.e. energy. The sector has underperformed for some time, and January's plunge might have been the washout necessary for a bottom to form, says Meisler. The ESG fad (or not a fad), the rise of Tesla, fracking ... At some point the bad news has been priced in. Meisler is keeping her eye on the Energy SPDR (XLE), noting it's managing to hold above support even as oil is making new lows. Another underperformer has been the banking sector, and Meisler thinks the chart of the KBE Bank Index (KBE) vs. the S&P 500 (SPY) has already put in a bottom. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Alpha Trader #16 - The correction begins: Alpha Trader talks with John Roque and Sri Thiruvadanthai
Tuesday, February 4, 2020 • Duration 37:00
This week's Alpha Trader podcast features Wolfe Research Managing Director John Roque, and Jerome Levy Forecasting Center Director of Research Sri Thiruvadanthai. Roque's technical indicators prior to last week were clearly pointing to a coming correction, and the coronavirus scare was the excuse needed for markets to begin heading down. Folks are already wondering when to buy the dip, but Roque notes the move lower has been very modest both in terms of points and time. With the S&P 500 (SPY) at around 3,250, Roque's got his eye on 3,100 before he might consider turning bullish again. The action has been particularly ugly in energy (XLE), with one midcap index Roque follows down a full 23% just in January! On this, the charts are pretty clear to Roque - crude oil (USO) looks set to test its 2016 lows in the low-$30s (vs. the current $51). Gold (GLD), on the other hand, is looking very good on the charts, plus - as is typical - sentiment is lame, and the yellow metal remains "underowned" by most. Roque's looking for a new all-time high this cycle, surpassing $1,921 seen in 2011. Before we get too bearish on equities, Roque reminds that the Federal Reserve bank is always at the ready to support markets with whatever tools it has. The U.S. budget deficit is now forecast to top $1T this year, or 4.3% of GDP, and stay at or above those levels for the foreseeable future. Sri Thiruvadanthai isn't a full-on believer in Modern Monetary Theory (which is wholly unconcerned with deficits for a government that prints its own money), but those folks do have some valid points, he says - most importantly, that default can't happen unless a political decision is made to do so. The flip side of the choice not to default, however, is inflation, and that is certainly a valid concern at times, says Thiruvadanthai. This, however, isn't one of those times. The Fed has missed its inflation target (from the downside) for eight years running, he says, and the streak looks to be going to nine in 2020. More concerning to Thiruvadanthai is that the deficits are so high given 50-year lows in unemployment. It suggests to him that "beneath the hood" the economy isn't as strong as it seems, and is being propped up by the deficit. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Alpha Trader #15 - Fear of missing out turns into fear
Tuesday, January 28, 2020 • Duration 26:24
The one-way stock market has gotten its excuse to reverse course a bit with the coronavirus panic. Even with the skittishness, hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher note it's only been the most modest of pullbacks so far. Even if inclined to buy-the-dip (and the hosts lean that way), there's no need to rush to do so. The question at hand: Is the market in a 1999 topping-out scenario or a mid-90s correction within a major bull market? Paul Tudor Jones, Seth Klarman, and even corporate gadfly turned stock-picker Ralph Nader are in the 1999 camp. Bridgewater honchos Ray Dalio and Bob Prince, and Appaloosa's David Tepper, on the other hand, remain bullish. Dalio - holding court at Davos last week - declared "cash is trash." Dalio's partner Prince even suggested the boom/bust cycle is kaput. The globe's major central banks are in a box, he says, not wanting to hike because of secular deflationary forces, and not wanting to ease in order to have some bullets in the chamber should a downturn hit. The focus at the moment is on the coronavirus, but this week will see some major Q4 earnings reports, Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), and Caterpillar (CAT) among them. Tesla's surge is arguably the largest single story in stocks over the past months, and Task wonders exactly how big a number will the company have to report to keep the momentum going. Instead of guessing, the hosts decide to see how the market reacts to either the good or bad news. They point to the recent case of Five Below (FIVE), which tumbled about 20% in response to disappointing holiday sales. Several sessions later, most of that drop had been recouped. A bull on the name might be inclined to stay so. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Alpha Trader #14 - The next really big thing - Cody Willard talks with Alpha Trader
Tuesday, January 21, 2020 • Duration 26:47
Hedge fund manager and editor of Trading With Cody, Cody Willard joins Alpha Trader hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher for this week's podcast. The episode begins with a discussion of Tesla (TSLA), and Willard - who was a longtime bear on the company (but never short) - began buying close to last year's lows alongside the introduction of the Model 3. Making him even more bullish was the unveiling of the cybertruck. Willard believes every car on the planet over the next five-to-ten years is going to be using some version of the cybertruck's exoskeleton. It's hard to find hated names in today's one-way stock market, so Willard - strongly bullish long-term - has been doing some trimming around a few long-held positions. "Feet to fire" though, Willard's favorite five stocks are Disney (DIS), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), Spotify (SPOT), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Cisco (CSCO), and Willard spends some time explaining why he's a fan of the companies. Task notes that Cisco kind of deserves the hated name moniker - after all it's down nearly 20% from since mid-summer 2019. It's the truly revolutionary ideas and industries where we can find future 100- or even 1,000-baggers, says Willard, and space exploration has the potential to be the largest such revolution ever. People are spending too much time worrying about what demand might be for Virgin Galactic's $250K space flights, and not nearly enough time appreciating the technologies that will arise from such activity. Publicly-traded pure plays for space are tough to find beyond SPCE, but Willard is also an owner Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings (AJRD) and Boeing (BA) on the space idea. He's also an investor in privately-help SpaceX (SPACE). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Alpha Trader #13 - Don't fight the Fed - Tony Dwyer talks with Alpha Trader
Tuesday, January 14, 2020 • Duration 29:35
Canaccord Genuity Chief Market Strategist Tony Dwyer joins Alpha Trader hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher to kick off the podcast's 2020 season. Dwyer was among the more bullish strategists last year - and he remains constructive on stocks - but the market's big rise leaves the S&P 500 (SPY) only about 5% below his 2020 target. At the root of Dwyer's bullishness last year was the Fed's about-face, with a switch to rate cuts throughout 2019 vs. the previous years' rate hike cycle. Currently, a number of technical and sentiment factors are pointing to over-exuberance, says Dwyer, and he's expecting a modest pullback in stocks (timing to be decided upon). The bull market remains intact though, and Dwyer would be a buyer on the dip, particularly in economically sensitive sectors like financials (XLF), industrials (XLI), and information technology (XLK). Dwyer believes there's been a generational shift in thinking at the Fed, with the central bankers now way more worried about the U.S. becoming the next Japan or Europe, rather than inflation getting to perky. It could be a "very, very long time" before the Fed embarks on another series of rate hikes. Dwyer also weighs in on the Fed's massive injections of liquidity into the repo market. Smart folks can argue about whether this is simply necessary plumbing or a stealth QE, and Dwyer is happy to defer to their opinions. Bottom line, says Dwyer: "Who cares?" Call it whatever you wish, but the Fed is telling you it's going to inject tens of billions into the system each month. Invest accordingly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Guest Episode - Value Investor's Edge Live With Flex LNG's CEO
Tuesday, January 7, 2020 • Duration 43:23
We're sharing an episode from our Value Investor's Edge Live podcast, hosted on our The Investing Edge channel, in place of our normal Alpha Trader show (which will return next week). This episode features our host, J Mintzmyer of Value Investor’s Edge, speaking with Oystein Kallekev, CEO of Flex LNG, about the overall LNG shipping markets, US-China potential, and IMO 2020 impacts. Shipping has been one of the most buzzed about sectors in the market in recent months, and J is one of the leading experts in the field. We hope you enjoy. Topics Covered:
1:45 minute mark - Start of discussion- Market review: LNG sentiment now terrible?
4:15 - What market differentials exists between modern and older carriers?
8:05 - Precisely what sort of premium can investors expect to see?
9:35 - Any clear impacts or benefits from the US-China 'Phase 1 Deal'?
13:45 - Do steam propulsion LNG carriers have a future?
17:15 - Any major new technologies on the horizon? 2030 carbon reduction?
22:15 - What about TFDE propulsion? Is there a clear future for these?
26:00 - Are there any direct impacts coming from IMO 2020 regulations?
30:40 - Are you planning to increase your charter coverage into 2020?
35:35 - What are your capital allocation priorities with extra free cash?
40:05 - Will dividends be closely tied to earnings going forward?
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Alpha Trader #12 - The coming reflation: Michael Gayed talks with Alpha Trader
Tuesday, December 31, 2019 • Duration 21:03
Alpha Trader concludes its first season with an interview of Michael Gayed, a prolific and well-followed Seeking Alpha contributor, and also the editor of The Lead-Lag Report. Inflation expectations have bottomed out, argues Gayed, and if reflation is the theme going forward, that means good things for some lagging equity sectors - notably financials (XLF), emerging markets ([[EEM]], [[VWO]]), and commodities like energy (XLE). On the flip side, reflation would mean just the opposite not just for bonds (TLT), but for anything yield sensitive - REITs ([[IYR]],[[VNQ]]) come to mind. The government needs inflation, says Gayed, to ease the burden of the many trillions in debt it owes. The Federal Reserve needs it as well, he contends, to allow it the room to raise interest rates from still-extreme low levels that it might have the space to ease during the next downturn. When reading economic tea leaves, sometimes simple is best. The average home contains massive amounts of lumber, says Gayed. Thus lumber prices can be fairly directly connected to expectations for the future of construction and housing. And if you can figure what's going to happen with construction and housing, you've probably got a pretty good idea of what's going to happen with the economy. For the moment, the action in lumber (up big over the last few months) is giving Gayed confidence in his reflation theme. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
