US stocks are strong on more signs of a soft landing. NZ business confidence surges as rates are cut. Australian capital investment plans remain strong, and India’s GDP figures later today may send the Reserve Bank of India a dovish signal. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung unpacks how changing global supply chains are driving capital outflows from China’s manufacturers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks are trading down ahead of of chipmaker Nvidia’s results later this morning; There’s support for an ECB September cut; Australia’s inflation in July was stronger than expected, while house building remains soft; And there’s ongoing weakness in New Zealand’s jobs market. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why there’s been record high outflows of capital from China in recent quarters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US retail sales jump and give global stocks a boost. Australia’s jobs rise is tempered by rising participation. The Philippines’ central bank cuts. China’s domestic demand slumps, while Japan’s GDP gets a consumer shot in the arm. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak reviews PMI data to reveal which Asian economies are riding an AI-Technology demand boost. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Treasury yields fall on hopes inflation is moderating. The Yen firms after reports the BoJ may raise its inflation outlook. Taiwan’s CPI is lower than forecast. Australian consumers see higher inflation. The RBNZ is expected to hold its cash rate. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani looks at what’s at stake in South Korea’s general election today for fiscal and monetary policy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US Treasury yields hit fresh 2024 highs overnight as traders continued to reprice expectations for Fed rate cuts. The Philippines’ central bank holds but turns hawkish on inflation risks. Australia’s housing imbalance is expected to keep supporting prices. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains what’s driving gold’s stunning rally. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stronger than forecast US jobs growth pushed up Treasury yields on Friday night, but wage growth was more moderate, leaving the Fed still on track for a rate cut in July. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen says Fiji needs to build four-and-a-half thousand new hotel rooms over the next decade. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

All eyes are on US non-farm payrolls tonight. Australian households spent plenty going to Taylor Swift concerts; Building approvals weaken on both sides of the Tasman, and Kiwi house values track sideways. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari looks at why you paid so much more for your Easter eggs this year - a soaring cocoa price. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs growth beat expectations overnight, but was offset by weaker services sector growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in ‘wait and see’ mode on rate cuts this year. Gold is over US$2,300/oz this morning. Australian consumers expect higher inflation In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan looks at the inflation and interest rate outlooks across Asia for the rest of 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stock markets weakened overnight on further evidence that interest rates might stay higher for longer. Oil hit its highest price since October last year on fears around global supply, and Australian house prices continue their march upward. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin, says the US Federal Reserve and the ECB won’t want real interest rates to rise as inflation falls. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Treasury yields are jumping as strong US manufacturing data increases doubt about a rate cut by the Fed in June. That broke a surge in the Gold price, which had earlier hit a new high overnight. China’s manufacturing activity is also on the rise. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin, says this quarter’s data is where the rubber will meet the road for whether central banks can cut rates this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are on yen intervention alert. Australian inflation data was softer than expected. China’s industrial profits beat expectations. And New Zealand’s Government is set to borrow more as its economy slows. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen explains why Papua New Guinea’s depreciating currency is not driving structural change. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data and Easter holidays for many. US consumers feel more confident. Australian renters are much less confident than home owners. New Zealand budget policy detail is due later today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Data Scientist Somayeh Shiri reveals her findings from an analysis of herding behaviour among foreign exchange forecasters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are unsettled this morning, with oil and gold up solidly on geo-political concerns in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. There’s more Fed-speak and ECB-speak about when rates might be cut, and by how much. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur sorts through emerging Asia’s Q4 GDP data to find the winners and themes, especially with the boom in advanced chip manufacturing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The RBNZ kicks off its easing cycle with a 25 bps rate cut. Australian jobs figures today may show when the RBA might move. US CPI inflation in July met expectations. There’s another ‘will they - won’t they’ rate decision today, in the Philippines. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner analyses why the RBNZ felt it was able to cut rates a full year ahead of its previously published forecasts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US$ starts the week strong vs the A$, NZ$ and yen after a dovish BoJ hike and markets seeing fewer Fed rate cuts this year. Market attention is on Australian inflation data on Wednesday for signals on whether the RBA can cut in November. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes visits China and finds surprisingly resilient demand for iron ore. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Taiwan’s central bank hikes unexpectedly, while the Swiss National Bank surprises with the first rate cut of the majors. The Bank of England holds. Strong Australian jobs growth hits hopes for an early rate cut from the RBA. New Zealand is in recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung surveys the seven key ‘D’ risks facing China in the year of the Dragon, starting with Deflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed has just held its Fed Funds Rate as expected, but has raised dot plot track by around 25 basis points in 2025. British inflation slowed in February, but the Bank of England is still expected to hold; The BoJ is watching a weak yen closely, and New Zealand GDP today could show a technical recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Blair Chapman investigates a new trend of Australian job seekers holding off starting new jobs in January, and why that could affect today’s February jobs numbers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Bank of Japan has scrapped negative interest rates, hiking for the first time in 17 years. The Yen fell. US Treasury yields also fell ahead of the Fed’s decision tonight. The RBA held, but turned slightly dovish, which pushed the Aussie dollar down. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari looks at how record US oil output changes the outlook for oil prices this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US Treasury yields and the dollar rose overnight as traders pared back expectations of the Fed’s rate cuts. Japan’s Nikkei closed up over 2.5% on expectations of a dovish Bank of Japan hike today, and the RBA is set to hold, but maintain a tightening bias In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says New Zealand is at risk of a credit rating downgrade because of a high current account deficit. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are all scheduled to make rates decisions this week. The BoJ may even hike. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ strategist Soni Kumari analyses how China’s shift to renewable power is shifting demand for commodities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US producer price inflation data was hotter than expected. US bond yields are up, as is the US dollar. US stocks are down. House prices in New Zealand are flat, although net migration to NZ set new record highs. Iron ore could fall under US$100/tonne. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung wraps up his analysis of China’s National People’s Congress and explains why the focus is shifting away from the annual growth target to longer-term structural reform. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices surge after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. US stocks dip ahead of key retail sales data. The Bank of Japan is set to hike to 0.0% as wages surge. The ECB is seen cutting in June. Inflation in New Zealand may beat the RBNZ’s forecast. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains how a two-tiered property system is emerging in China as authorities promote affordable housing over the private market, which could take pressure off a supply glut. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US core inflation was stronger than expected in February. Bond yields rose, but stock markets shrugged it off. India’s CPI was held up by food prices. Australian businesses see price rises, while consumers feel better. New Zealand retail spending drops. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains how China’s property supply is running well ahead of demand, with three-and-a-half years worth of unsold residential property piling up as demand weakens. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are in a holding pattern as traders wait to see how sticky US inflation was in February. Japan’s recession was revised away. The Bank of Japan is expected to end negative rates in next Monday or in April. India’s inflation rate is expected to be steady. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains how the Reserve Bank of India may have over-delivered on its inflation target, and how it might be loosening monetary conditions through the repo markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Weaker-than-expected US producer prices support rate cut bets ahead of key CPI data tonight. Australian wage growth is moderating, but only slowly. And it’s a ‘will they/won’t they’ monetary policy review day in New Zealand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner looks ahead to that ‘live’ Monetary Policy Review for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand later today. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US non-farm payrolls were mixed, allowing markets to keep betting the Fed will start cutting in June. The ECB may cut before the Fed. The yen is rising on talk the Bank of Japan may finally hike. RBA watchers are focused on business confidence this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sanjay Mathur looks at how ASEAN economies can overcome a fading demographic dividend by investing in ICT infrastructure and human capital to keep GDP growing faster than 5%. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and gold surge to fresh record highs. The ECB is set to cut rates in June. China’s exports beat expectations and all eyes are on US non-farm payrolls tonight for 200,000 jobs growth. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at what’s driving a divergence in the economic and budget performances of Australia’s states and territories.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Jerome Powell say the Fed can cut rates this year, sending stocks up and Treasury yields down. Australian growth may be bottoming out. Gold rose over US$2,150/oz to a new record highs overnight. All eyes are on the ECB rates decision tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny reviews the most recent fiscal projections for the US Government and explains how political polarisation is affecting the US’s credit rating.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China is targeting 5% GDP growth again, but debate is intense on how it’ll get there. Gold and bitcoin hit record highs. Australian exports are helping GDP growth. South Korea’s factories are humming. Prices in the Philippines rose more than forecast. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan explains how Asian central banks are bracing for the Fed’s first rate cut.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stock and bond markets are mostly steady ahead of Fed testimony and non-farm payrolls data later this week. Gold lurched up to near record highs of over US$2,100/oz. All eyes in China are on the National People’s Congress for a new GDP target. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing highlights the role climate policy will play in this week’s National People’s Congress. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Interest rate markets are poised for interest rate decisions in Europe and Canada this week. US stocks hit fresh record highs, as did gold after more falls in US bond yields. China’s National People’s Congress meets In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Sustainable Finance Katharine Tapley talks about green bond issuance in 2024 in the wake of last year’s COP.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation data met forecasts and markets still see the Fed cutting later this year. India’s GDP growth data overnight was much stronger than expected, but there’s a statistical quirk. Australian business investment intentions are rising. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why demand for copper will stay strong, even as China’s demand fades. It’s all about India.

The Kiwi dollar falls 1.3% after the RBNZ pivots away from rate hike talk. The Aussie dollar is down 0.75% after softer-than-expected inflation data. The S&P 500 is flat ahead of key US inflation data tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari explains why central banks are buying more gold, and why it will continue to push the precious metal’s price towards US$2,200/oz by year-end. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are wary as another Fed President sees “no rush” to cut rates. Japan’s inflation data is surprisingly warm. AI chip demand drives surprise rise in Taiwan exports. Australia’s annual inflation rate is set to rise, and it’s a ‘live’ decision day for the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate. In part two of our bonus deep dive interview on Australia’s housing market, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell looks at the strength of household balance sheets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks are treading water as traders turn their attention to critical US inflation data later this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell takes a closer look at the housing supply and demand drivers behind slower price growth expected in 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets were stable overnight ahead of US price data later this week; Australian wages data today will be watched closely by the RBA, and India’s CPI dips below 4%, although perhaps only temporarily. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman says the Dollar-Yen exchange rate appears have have found a near-term floor after a wild couple of weeks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks are paused on their global highs. Markets are turning their focus to a potential hike in the RBNZ’s cash rate and Australian inflation figures on Wednesday. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen finds a lack of funding for infrastructure investment is holding back the Pacific’s economies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks surging to record highs after Nvidia’s very strong results. US yields and US$ rise after FOMC minutes and speakers are cautious about an early rate cut. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty reviews strong growth of foreign direct investment into Vietnam, particularly from Chinese firms setting up manufacturing there. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Australian wages rose faster than prices for the first time in three years. Chinese stocks jump after new selling bans were imposed. A Fed President makes hawkish comments. Indonesia holds its main policy rate. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at opportunities in 2024 from politics, Asia and climate trends — it’s not all just about interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China cut a key interest rate to support a sagging property market, although markets reacted mildly as traders await comments from three Fed speakers and FOMC minutes; RBA minutes show focus on sticky services inflation ahead of key wage data today; Green shoots in NZ discretionary spending could get RBNZ attention. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari looks at a looming supply shortage for platinum, just as car makers and the hydrogen economy start using more of it. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China stocks underwhelmed as markets opened after the Lunar New Year. The US dollar is expected to be strong through the first quarter. ANZ Research looks at a scenario for a 7% OCR in New Zealand. Thailand’s economy grew less than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why oil prices haven’t spiked much, despite widening conflicts in the Middle East. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China’s consumers travelled and spent more during the just-completed Lunar New Year holidays than in 2019. The RBA will watch this week’s Australian wages figures like a hawk. The RBNZ says the last mile of inflation reduction will be hard. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why there’s a growth and interest rate divide opening up between the United States and the rest of the world. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets shrugged off weaker Australian jobs figures. UK and Japan GDP fell. US retail sales were weak. NZ migration was at record highs in 2023, which the RBNZ Governor is watching as an inflationary factor. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma reviews the decisive win by Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming in Indonesia’s Presidential elections, which has buoyed financial markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets bounced overnight after traders took stock of stronger-than-expected inflation, and as a Fed President said higher monthly inflation was still consistent with the Fed’s 2% target. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Blair Chapman explains why full time employment growth in Australia might be set to taper off, and what that could mean for the RBA. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US prices grew faster than expected in January, reducing hopes for a March rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The strong reading sent stock markets down, while US bond yields and the US dollar surged. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty looks at how a US ‘friendshoring’ pivot away from China is pushing up US costs and prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The S&P 500 has pushed even further above 5,000 ahead of US inflation data tonight. India’s inflation rate decelerated in line with expectations in January as food price rises slowed. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma explains what’s at stake in Indonesia’s elections starting tomorrow. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are bracing this week for fresh US inflation data on Wednesday night, Australia wages and jobs figures on Tuesday and Thursday, a the RBNZ’s decision on Wednesday. In China, more signs of weak retail demand are expected on Thursday. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan examines what a second Trump Presidency might mean for Asian exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The S&P 500 starts the week at a fresh record high of just over 5,000 and ANZ Research has changed its call for the RBNZ’s OCR to two more hikes to 6%. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains the call change and how the RBNZ has set precedents before. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Faster-than-forecast deflation in China is raising expectations of more stimulus. The Reserve Bank of India held overnight, but more hawkishly than expected. The chances of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiking in three weeks is rising. In our bonus deep dive interview around the Lunar New Year, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at China’s energy transformation in the ‘fire era’ out to 2043, and what that means for the rest of the world.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The S&P 500 rose more than 0.5% to record highs near 5,000 after strong US corporate earnings and rate cut comments from the Fed’s Neel Kashkari. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung has looked at what typically happens to birth rates in the year of the dragon, and why this Lunar New Year may be different.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/