"If I could be reincarnated, I would want to come back as the bond market — because you can intimidate everybody."
I sat down with James Athey, Fixed Income Fund Manager at Marlborough Group. 90 minutes, no filter, no consensus views.
We covered:
→ Why central banks are structurally set up to always be behind the curve and why more data will never fix it
→ The Fed as arsonist and fireman: how the institution creates the very crises it then rescues us from
→ The basis trade: the trillion-dollar vulnerability hiding in plain sight in US Treasury markets
→ Why recessions are not the enemy, they are the medicine a broken system refuses to take
→ The real case for gold and it has nothing to do with inflation
→ Hard currency vs local currency EM debt and why treating them as the same thing is a costly mistake
→ How to think about emerging market debt in a world of rising yields and geopolitical fracture
James Athey has been navigating fixed income markets for over two decades — through the GFC, the zero rate era, and the inflation shock of 2021.
⏱️ TIMESTAMPS
0:01 — Introduction: James's 20+ year journey into fixed income and macro thinking
0:09 — Why bonds over equities? The intellectual case for macro over bottom-up
1:29 — Is bottom-up stock picking still relevant in a world dominated by passive and systematic investors?
5:57 — Why does the stock market only seem to go up regardless of the news?
6:10 — Momentum, retail behaviour, and the self-fulfilling bull market
9:08 — How sustainable is the current bull run?
12:50 — Benchmark-constrained vs unconstrained funds: how the mandate changes the way you think about risk
16:52 — Could we ever return to pre-pandemic yield levels?
21:23 — US foreign policy instability and its real impact on treasury yields
26:30 — The yield curve is steepening while the Fed holds rates. What is the bond market telling us?
33:02 — Why James thinks central bank policy frameworks are fundamentally broken
49:32 — How the Fed could go from not buying treasuries to buying in size overnight
56:14 — Is any of this actually sustainable?
1:01:51 — The recession fixed income playbook: which sovereign bond markets to own and which to avoid
1:19:45 — One piece of advice for anyone trying to understand macro and bond markets from scratch
📌 ABOUT 1BASISPOINT
1BasisPoint brings you direct access to the fund managers, investors, and capital allocators who don't usually talk publicly. No recycled headlines, no hot takes — just honest, research-backed conversations about how the best in the business actually think.
Hosted by Krish & Rehan.
🔗 FOLLOW & LISTEN
Website: https://www.1bps.us
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0DoEJuX01OmoxLOBHJXTYr?si=1d244d2e4629480f
Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/1basispoint/id1893808224
Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. The views expressed by the hosts and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Marlborough Group or any of its officials. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or fund. Listeners should consult with a qualified professional for specific advice tailored to their individual circumstances. We are not responsible for any losses or liabilities incurred by acting on information from this podcast.
