"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Today on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg conversation with Samo Burja where they discuss the Bronze Age collapse, technological advancements in ancient civilizations, and the nuanced history of the Roman Empire, along with a detailed analysis of contemporary geopolitical dynamics, particularly focusing on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and its implications for global power structures.

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📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess

—

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

🎙️Live Players

Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja

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SPONSORS:

☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine

💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

—

LINKS:

Bismarck Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

—

X / TWITTER:

@samoburja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

—

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

• The Bronze Age collapse demonstrates that advanced civilizations can experience technological backsliding, countering the idea that knowledge only accumulates.
• Despite technological advancement in some areas like Greek fire in the Byzantine Empire, the Bronze Age collapse shows entire civilizations and technologies can be lost.
• The Bronze Age collapse (around 1000 BC) is documented in both written sources (Hittite tablets) and archaeological evidence showing destruction layers across multiple regions.
• The Hittite Empire, once a major power rivaling Egypt, was completely forgotten until its rediscovery in the 19th century.
• During this collapse, entire civilizations vanished, metalworking was lost in some places, and Greece lost literacy for about 400 years.
• Even decentralized systems can be fragile, as demonstrated by how trade route disruptions led to bronze scarcity and eventual societal collapse.
• From 1991 to 2014, the world lived under US hegemony before Russia began expanding again with the annexation of Crimea.
• Samo predicts giant nations like the US and China will have strong interests but won't necessarily impose their systems on smaller countries.
• Europe's decline could be reversed if it adopted a more federal and flexible system similar to the Swiss Confederacy.
• Eastern European countries like Estonia, Poland, and Hungary present interesting possibilities for governance experiments.
• Regarding Russia-Ukraine, Samo predicts Russia will ultimately gain territory while Ukraine loses it, with Western support for Ukraine likely to weaken over time.
• On historical narratives, Samo suggests prehistory was much more violent than often portrayed by anthropologists in recent decades.
• Samo challenges academic narratives about colonization, arguing Spanish rule was an improvement over Aztec human sacrifice practices.
• North America likely had multiple rises and falls of civilization that remain undiscovered partly due to political motivations in archaeology.

Today on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg conversation with Samo Burja on this week’s Live Players. They discuss the potential industrial revolutions in history, particularly in the Roman Empire and Song Dynasty China, their technological advancements, economic factors, and the reasons these revolutions didn't reach full fruition.

—

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

—

RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 

🎙️Live Players

Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188   

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55  

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja 

—

SPONSORS:

☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 

💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

—

LINKS:

Las Medulas in Spain: https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/803/ 

Monte Testaccio in Rome: https://www.historyskills.com/classroom/ancient-history/monte-testaccio/?srsltid=AfmBOoonzF0CVGKjzUFs46kkI9fZ-FVcBTDOMAVs8vtFcxH4iKcNx09f

Bismarck Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

—

X / TWITTER:

@samoburja

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

—

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

• The podcast explores "failed industrial revolutions" not widely recognized in history.
• Human economic progress isn't constant but cycles between prosperity and decline.
• The Roman Empire had its own industrial revolution unlike our modern conception.
• Water power was extensively used by Romans for milling, metalwork, and stone cutting.
• Romans built complex waterwheel systems and engineering works for power generation.
• Heron of Alexandria demonstrated steam power principles in experimental devices.
• Roman metal production was so vast it left pollution signatures in Greenland ice cores.
• Monte Testaccio in Rome indicates industrial-scale production of millions of amphoras.
• Romans mass-produced standardized pottery, glassware, statues, and military equipment.
• A sophisticated Roman consumer economy existed with a significant middle class.
• This era remains underappreciated partly due to concerns about interrupted progress.
• Hollywood misrepresents the era, omitting the "steampunk" mechanical sophistication.
• Cities like Alexandria were major production centers with extensive trade networks.
• Romans might have adopted steam power had they needed to mine more coal.
• Song Dynasty China represents another technologically advanced society that fell.
• Large-scale water shipping appears crucial for all historical industrialization.
• Industrial revolutions plateau when non-technological growth fails to keep pace.
• The Hellenistic era, especially Alexandria, is described as modern science's birthplace.

Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss the Abundance Agenda by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, the impact of the 2008 recession, Obama's presidency, and shifts in political ideology, focusing on the 'New Right' and its cultural and economic implications, while also touching upon the economic recovery strategies post-2008.

This episode originally aired on Econ102 (April 1, 2025)

—

📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

—

RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 

🎙️Econ102 with Noah Smith

Keeping econ entertaining - Noahpinion author Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg break down business news and politics every week.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1696419056 

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6q7Gn5lP8TTtBPuV1NJSGs

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@ECON102Podcast

—

SPONSORS:

☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 

🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world.

🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream

💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

—

LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

Abundance (by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson): https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482 

The Clash of Civilizations (by Samuel Huntington): https://www.amazon.com/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/1451628978 

Revolt of the Public (by Martin Gurri): https://www.amazon.com/Revolt-Public-Crisis-Authority-Millennium/dp/1732265143 

Understanding America's New Right: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/understanding-americas-new-right 

American Factory: https://www.netflix.com/title/81090071 

—

X / TWITTER:

@Noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

—

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

• The "abundance agenda" is gaining unexpected traction among Democrats who see it as a unifying message rather than class warfare.
• Noah views the abundance agenda as appealing because it promises prosperity for all Americans regardless of political beliefs.
• Noah considers Obama underrated, highlighting his stimulus package, Dodd-Frank regulations, Iraq War withdrawal, and Obamacare.
• Obama's immigration policy focused on deporting criminal elements, reducing the illegal immigrant population by about a million.
• The 2008 financial crisis was a "liquidity preference shock" where fear caused everyone to hold cash rather than spend.
• During demand-side crises, the government acts as "spender of last resort" to jumpstart economic activity.
• Infrastructure spending during the Obama era wasn't efficient, creating problems for future building initiatives.
• Post-2008 policies increased US debt from 60% to 100% of GDP during Obama's administration.
• Higher inflation under Biden has actually decreased the debt-to-GDP ratio despite increased spending.
• The "new right" ideology focuses on "Western civilization" - not racial nationalism but reverence for traditional European/Christian heritage.
• New right politicians like JD Vance care more about "meme wars" and online status than practical policy solutions.
• Social media has empowered a small percentage of politically active "shouting class" with outsized influence.

In this episode of Upstream, Erik sits down with theoretical physicist and startup founder Steve Hsu. They discuss political polarization in academia, the fertility crisis, AI, and more.

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist

Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more.

Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj

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SPONSORS: Beehiiv | Shopify

Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝to https://Beehiiv.com and use code "UPSTREAM" for 20% off your first three months.

Shopify: https://shopify.com/torenberg for a $1/month trial period

Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all ecommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one ecommerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/torenberg.

--

LINKS

Superfocus: https://superfocus.ai/

Othram: https://othram.com/index.html

Manifold: https://www.manifold1.com/

--

X / TWITTER:

@hsu_steve (Steve)

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

@upstream__pod

@turpentinemedia

--

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(02:21) Political polarization in academia

(05:47) The decline of meritocracy in academia

(10:00) Why can't academia change?

(13:27) Truth-seeking in startups

(20:36) Sponsor: Shopify

(23:36) The fertility crisis

(32:11) AI and labor

(41:06) What industries are safe from AI automation?

(44:05) AI Safety vs accelerationism

(47:51) Understanding the rise of China

(58:46) The future of the US/China relationship

(01:00:41) How does Steve allocate his time?

(01:04:41) Steve's suggestions for underexplored opportunities

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This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co

Producer: Sam Kaufman

Editor: Michelle Poreh

For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact Sam@turpentine.co

On today's Upstream, Erik interviews Itay Vinik to get an overview of the markets and current macro environment, learn frameworks for adjusting an investing strategy based on rising or falling interest rates, and debunk common investment myths. They cover the Federal Reserve's role in a globalized economy, discuss the strategies that stabilize markets, and evaluate different asset classes during economic shifts. Upstream is sponsored by Shopify: https://shopify.com/torenberg for a $1/month trial period.

Itay Vinik is the Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Equi (https://www.equi.com/), an alternative investment platform that brings investment strategies to accredited investors.

-

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist

Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more.

Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj

–

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

–

SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | SHOPIFY

Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝to https://Beehiiv.com and use code "UPSTREAM" for 20% off your first three months.

SHOPIFY: https://shopify.com/torenberg for a $1/month trial period

Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all e-commerce in the US. And Shopify’s the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy’s, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you’re selling, Shopify’s got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/torenberg

–

X / TWITTER:

@vinikitay

@eriktorenberg

@upstream__pod

@turpentinemedia

–

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(04:57) Understanding Alternative Investments

(12:21) The Impact of Interest Rates on Investments

(14:00) Sponsors: Shopify

(17:59) Understanding the Role of the Fed

(23:52) Investing Strategies for Different Economic Conditions

(33:52) Debunking the Inverse Correlation of Stocks and Bonds

(35:44) Stock Market vs. Real Economy

(42:24) Predicting a Potential Recession

(42:34) The Fed's Track Record and the Possibility of a Rate Hike

(44:03) The Consequences of Increasing Rates

(44:50) Understanding Quantitative Easing and Tightening

(47:10) The Role of the Fed in Money Creation

(01:10:19) The Impact of Globalization on the Fed's Decisions

(01:13:22) Understanding China's Currency Manipulation

(01:14:37) The Debate on Passive vs Active Investing

(01:20:09) The Power of Real Estate in Wealth Creation

This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

On today's Upstream, we're sharing a recent episode where Balaji Srinivasan joins Nathan Labenz to discuss the future of AI: polytheistic AI and AI gods, human-AI symbiosis, and how AI will be controlled. Upstream is sponsored by Shopify: https://shopify.com/torenberg for a $1/month trial period.

This episode is a feed drop of The Cognitive Revolution, where Nathan Labenz and Erik Torenberg interview builders on the edge of AI and explore its dramatic shift over the next decades. Listen and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/

-

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist

Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more.

Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj

–

SPONSOR :

Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝to https://Beehiiv.com and use code "UPSTREAM" for 20% off your first three months.

SHOPIFY: https://shopify.com/torenberg for a $1/month trial period

Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all e-commerce in the US. And Shopify’s the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy’s, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you’re selling, Shopify’s got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/torenberg

–

X / TWITTER:

@labenz (Nathan)

@balajis (Balaji)

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

@upstream__pod (Upstream)

@TurpentineMedia

@CogRev_Podcast (Cognitive Revolution)

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(01:41) Exploring the Concept of AI in the Context of Evolution

(02:34) Technical Aspects of AI and its Future

(05:25) Challenges in AI: Time Varying and Rule Varying Systems

(05:54) AI in Practical Utility and Jobs

(07:11) AI Progress and Uncertainties in the Near Future

(08:17) AI and the Concept of Generative Intelligence

(08:25) Adversarial Input

(10:36) Sponsor: Shopify

(25:11) Offense and Defense

(25:48) Sponsor: Shopify

(40:49) Impact on Blue America

(45:39 AI Regulation and the Concept of Software FDA

(48:45) The Future of AI

(49:00) The Role of AI in the Tech Industry

(50:18) Exploring the Potential of AI Technology

(53:57) The Mathematical Constraints of AI

(55:23) The Future of AI: Cryptography and Chaos

(57:16) The Impact of AI on Human Evolution

(57:19) The Practical Difficulties of AI Implementation

(01:02:34) The Future of AI: Amplified Intelligence

(01:05:11) The Future of AI: Man-Machine Symbiosis

(01:09:09) The Future of AI: Polytheistic AI

(01:17:53) Amplified Intelligence Revisited

(01:29:02) The Future of AI: The Impact on Blue America

(01:30:14) AI in Healthcare

(01:30:34) The Role of Human Intelligence in AI Development

(01:31:24) The Impact of AI on Job Market and Environment

(01:32:27) The Role of AI in Robotics and Training

(01:33:50) The Actuator Concept in AI

(01:35:06) The Impact of AI on Cryptography

(01:37:54) Data Analysis

(01:41:00) The Role of AI in Bridging Different Modalities

(01:45:28) The Future of AI in a Global Context

(01:59:56) The Future of AI in a Tribal Perspective

(02:04:26) The Future of AI in a Global Perspective

This week, in a departure from Upstream's usual format, Erik sits downs with friends Nick DeWilde, Sean Linehan, and Justin Mares to exchange startup ideas in a new format called "Request for Startups." Please note that this episode contains some vulgar humor and won't be for everyone.

--

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist

Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more.

Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj

--

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

--

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Live Players with Samo Burja

Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today's most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You'll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. Listen to Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers.

--

SPONSOR:

Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝to https://Beehiiv.com and use code "UPSTREAM" for 20% off your first three months.

Shopify: https://shopify.com/torenberg for a $1/month trial period

Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all ecommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one ecommerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/torenberg.

--

X / TWITTER:

@jwmares (Justin)

@seanlinehan (Sean)

@nick_dewilde (Nick)

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

@upstream__pod

@turpentinemedia

--

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Preview

(01:25) Intro

(02:03) Fake jobs for rich families

(06:59) Ending San Fransisco burglaries

(10:50) Better prenups

(13:13) Brunch x Benihana

(15:44) Sponsor: Shopify

(19:40) Fit Club

(24:40) Justin's story from being a janitor at LA Fitness

(26:49) Generative AI applications

(37:26) Holistic fertility treatment

(42:31) Combining workspaces with other services

(44:58) Retraining software engineers

(47:15) Quora for people

(49:57) Wrap

--

This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Producer: Sam Kaufman

Editor: Graham Bessellieu

For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact Sam@turpentine.co

In this episode, Erik sits down with Noor Siddiqui, founder and CEO of Orchid. They discuss Orchid's recent breakthrough in embryo whole genome sequencing, the fertility crisis, parenting, dating, and more.

--

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist

Every week, creator of WhatifAltHist Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg cover a major topic in history in depth -- in under an hour. This season will cover classical Greece, early America, the Vikings, medieval Islam, ancient China, the fall of the Roman Empire, and more.

Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/36Kqo3BMMUBGTDo1IEYihm

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/history-102-with-whatifalthists-rudyard-lynch-and/id1730633913

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@History102-qg5oj

--

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

--

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Live Players with Samo Burja

Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today's most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You'll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. Listen to Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers.

--

SPONSOR:

Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝to https://Beehiiv.com and use code "UPSTREAM" for 20% off your first three months.

Shopify: https://shopify.com/torenberg for a $1/month trial period

Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all ecommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one ecommerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/torenberg.

--

LINKS

Orchid: https://www.orchidhealth.com/

--

X / TWITTER:

@noor_siddiqui_ (Noor)

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

@upstream__pod

@turpentinemedia

--

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Preview

(01:06) Intro

(01:26) What is Orchid?

(04:13) Genome sequencing for embryos: What Orchid has accomplished

(07:00) The breakthrough that enabled Orchid's genome sequencing

(08:32) The impact and significance of the polygenic risk score

(11:59) What is IVF

(15:19) Sponsors: Shopify

(20:04) Concerns and stigmas around reproductive technology

(26:10) On the Gattaca future where parents create perfect children

(27:54) Moral panic around longevity

(30:32) Anything that can improve things can be used in very hostile ways

(33:30) What are the norms around having kids going to be 30-40 years from now

(36:55) Noor's thoughts on declining fertility rates

(42:13) Matchmaking and dating

(48:21) Is the decline of men a real thing?

(50:20) Increasing fertility rates, moving the culture, and the negative effects of fertility collapse

(1:07:37) Trying out Orchid and how the test works

(1:09:16) Wrap

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This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Producer: Sam Kaufman

Editor: Graham Bessellieu

For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact Sam@turpentine.co

Beff Jezos, the anonymous co-founder of the effective accelerationism movement (also known as "e/acc") recently had his identity revealed by Forbes reporters. He gives the inside story to Erik Torenberg, Antonio Garcia Martinez, Dan Romero, his e/acc cofounder Bayeslord, and The Cognitive Revolution podcast host Nathan Labenz. Make informed decision for high impact donations with GiveWell, which is offering Upstream listeners donation matching up to $100. To claim your match, go to https://www.givewell.org ➡️ pick “Podcast” and enter "Upstream with Erik Torenberg" at checkout.

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We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST: LIVE PLAYERS

Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today’s most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You’ll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. Listen and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers.

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SPONSORS: SHOPIFY

Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝to https://Beehiiv.com and use code "UPSTREAM" for 20% off your first three months.

Shopify: https://shopify.com/torenberg for a $1/month trial period

Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all ecommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one ecommerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/torenberg.

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X / TWITTER:

@BasedBeffJezos (Beff)

@bayeslord (Bayeslord)

@dwr (Dan)

@antoniogm (Antonio)

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

@upstream__pod

@turpentinemedia

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Episode Preview

(02:23) The inside story

(05:28) How did Beff's identity get revealed by these reporters?

(12:27) Why should journalists get to decide who gets to be anon?

(16:13) Beff's academic background in quantum computing

(18:33) Why Beff started the anon account

(20:52) Sponsor: Shopify

(22:30) What's next for e/acc

(27:37) Overcentralization of AI

(29:56) Where the alpha is

(35:42) Sponsor: Givewell

(42:12) Decels and the rebellion

(48:37) Why is big tech so bad & 2024 elections

(51:00) AI Leaderboards

(53:44) Crypto and AI crossover

(58:08) Decentralizing the AI supply chain

(01:04:24) Hardware & Extropic technology

(01:09:24) Utility of e/acc

(01:14:52) What is the e/acc gospel

(01:22:20) What is the near term for AI?

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Upstream is a production from Turpentine

Producer: Sam Kaufman

Editor: Michelle Poreh

For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact Sam@turpentine.co

In this episode, Erik sits down with Samo Burja, political scientist and founder of Bismarck Analysis. They discuss Samo's term "live player" and today's live players, including Sam Altman, Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and George Soros.

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We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

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RELATED PODCAST

Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today's most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You'll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. Listen to Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers.

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SPONSORS:

Head to Beehiiv, the newsletter platform built for growth, to power your own. Connect with premium brands, scale your audience, and deliver a beautiful UX that stands out in an inbox. 🐝to https://Beehiiv.com and use code "UPSTREAM" for 20% off your first three months.

Shopify: https://shopify.com/torenberg for a $1/month trial period

Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all ecommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one ecommerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/torenberg.

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X / TWITTER:

@SamoBurja (Samo)

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

@upstream__pod

@turpentinemedia

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Episode Preview

(01:50) What are "live players?"

(05:05) Samo’s worldview

(10:35) Reflections on the energy transition

(15:35) Sponsor: Shopify

(18:40) Sam Altman as a live player

(22:25) OpenAI’s culture vs Microsoft’s culture

(25:45) Sam Altman vs Elon Musk vs Peter Thiel

(30:35) Sponsor: Oracle

(32:40) Understanding different perspectives on capitalism

(33:45) The role of live players in society

(38:05) Can we train live players?

(43:20) The evolution of live players

(48:10) Philanthropists as live players: Bill Gates, the Kochs, etc

(55:50) The paradox of open society advocates

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This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.

Producer: Sam Kaufman

Editor: Graham Bessellieu

For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact Sam@turpentine.co