Economist and "Noahpinion" writer Noah Smith and investor Erik Torenberg make sense of what’s happening in the news, technology, business, and beyond, through the lens of economics.
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Noah Smith joins Erik Torenberg at the 2026 American Dynamism Summit in Washington, D.C. to discuss Anthropic's relationship with Washington, bioterrorism risks stemming from AI, why Noah isn't worried about AI causing job loss, and more.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:28 - Anthropic, DOD, & Government Control of AI
04:28 - Sponsor: NetSuite
09:44 - Advice for Dario & Anthropic
12:13 - Partisan Politics vs. Existential Risk
16:06 - Mass Surveillance & AI
17:30 - The Biosecurity Threat
24:21 - Will AI Take Our Jobs?
28:41 - Outro
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Sponsor: NetSuite
More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Technology, Crime, and Public Safety w/ Garrett Langley, CEO of Flock Safety
Épisode 118
lundi 9 février 2026 • Durée 44:07
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah and Erik are joined by Flock Safety CEO to cover America's crime crisis and how to solve it with technology. They explore international comparisons, why America's crime problem is unique, how cameras can deter crime, tradeoffs in crime reduction, and more.
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More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
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Europe's Future, Online Politics, and Populism in America
Épisode 117
vendredi 2 janvier 2026 • Durée 43:11
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe's economic future, how internet discourse has changed politics, the rise of identitarian populism on both the right and left in America, and more.
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NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
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Europe continues to focus more on regulation than innovation, creating challenges for economic growth
Traditional European industries like auto manufacturing are struggling with the transition to electric vehicles
Chinese companies are producing better and cheaper electric cars that align with Europe's climate goals
The Gaza deal is viewed positively because it considers Gaza's economic future beyond just stopping violence
An economically self-sustaining Gaza might be less likely to support groups like Hamas
Immigration Debate w/ Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry and Noah Smith
Épisode 116
vendredi 5 décembre 2025 • Durée 01:24:15
In this episode of Econ 102 originally aired on the Sphere Podcast, Noah Smith and Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry sit down for a debate on immigration. They cover the philosophical underpinnings of their arguments, where they find common ground, border enforcement, deportation, public opinion, and more.
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Noah Smith and Pascal Emmanuel Gobry (PEG) engaged in a debate about immigration policy, focusing primarily on illegal immigration and enforcement approaches.
The conversation centered on philosophical positions about borders, practical enforcement strategies, and the societal impacts of immigration policies.
Both agreed that nations should have borders and control who enters, though they differed on enforcement methods.
AI Business Models, Rare Earths, and China's Economic Challenges
Épisode 115
mardi 11 novembre 2025 • Durée 54:49
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.
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NetSuite
More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://www.netsuite.com/102
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AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivity
AI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:
Like farming, solar power, and airlines
Code-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoption
Manufacturing's Future, The Electric Tech Stack, and Automation
Épisode 114
mercredi 8 octobre 2025 • Durée 56:02
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover the transformation of global manufacturing, the rise of the electric tech stack, the landscape of jobs and economic policy, and the state of today's online discourse.
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SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Who Profits from AI?
Épisode 113
mercredi 27 août 2025 • Durée 56:07
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and explore how AI is reshaping the economy, jobs, business profitability, industry competition, and financing, while drawing historical parallels and offering insights into its broader societal impact.
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SPONSORS:
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More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
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AI Bubble Prediction: The speaker forecasts an AI crash similar to the 2001 dot-com bust, but believes AI will ultimately succeed long-term
AGI Thought Experiment with Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg | From the a16z Podcast
Épisode 112
vendredi 15 août 2025 • Durée 01:15:55
In this episode from the a16z Podcast, Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg discuss AGI, exploring how AI might transform labor markets, economic growth, space exploration, and geopolitical dynamics in the coming decades.
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SPONSORS:
Zcash
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AI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102
NetSuite
More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
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Defining AGI: Noah and Dwarkesh begin by establishing working definitions of Artificial General Intelligence - from systems that "can do almost any job at least as well as humans" to more near-term AI that "can automate 95% of white-collar work"
Making Sense of Milei, AI & Employment, and America's Future
Épisode 111
jeudi 31 juillet 2025 • Durée 53:57
In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore Argentina's economic reforms under President Milei, development models in emerging economies like Vietnam and Malaysia, effective crime reduction strategies, and how AI might reshape our workforce and population dynamics in the coming decades.
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SPONSORS:
Carta
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Argentina's Economic Reforms: President Milei's fiscal austerity measures to address chronic deficits without dollarization, focusing on necessary belt-tightening for a middle-income country supporting an upper-income welfare state
Sam D'Amico and Noah Smith on How China Masters Manufacturing (And How America Can Catch Up)
Épisode 110
mardi 22 juillet 2025 • Durée 55:12
This week, we’re airing a live conversation between Noah Smith and Sam D’Amico, founder and CEO of Impulse Labs, about how China’s Electric Tech Stack and tightly integrated supply chains are fueling its lead in industries from EVs to robotics, while exploring solutions for revitalizing U.S. manufacturing. The conversation also covers regulatory challenges, the value of co-locating engineers and factories, and the role of advanced technologies in shaping global production.
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SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Shopify
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
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- Discussion opened with comparisons between AI's impact on various professions, particularly radiology
- America's murder rate is approximately 5x higher than Europe and 10x higher than Asia, making it a significantly more violent country
- Crime has become increasingly sophisticated over the past decade, shifting from impulsive juvenile offenses to organized, profit-driven enterprises
- Foreign criminal organizations operate with different specialties: South American gangs focus on narcotics, firearms, and use drones for reconnaissance
- Geographic spread: American cities are too suburban for effective foot patrols, forcing police to drive instead - foot patrols are proven to be more effective deterrents
- Gun availability: While firearms make approximately a 2x difference in murder rates, eliminating all guns (which would be extremely difficult) would only get America halfway to European safety levels
- Americans have restructured their entire lives around crime avoidance, creating costs not captured in crime statistics
- Deterrence through likelihood of capture: Research shows criminals are deterred by the likelihood of getting caught, not by severity of punishment
- Garrett compared criminal behavior to children - they commit crimes because they think they'll get away with it, not because punishment is insufficient
- Cameras create permanent records that make crime detection highly likely, fundamentally changing the risk calculus
- Even with permissive DAs or judges, the existence of video evidence creates accountability
- Japan achieved approximately a 5x reduction in crime through widespread camera deployment
- Cameras effectively ended many categories of street crime, with criminals openly acknowledging they "can't commit crimes, there's cameras everywhere"
- Reduced crime would save cities enormous costs - San Francisco could save approximately $1 billion by reducing crime to Asian standards
- Noah emphasized that "law and order" rhetoric won't work in liberal cities - need a different framing
- The progressive case for surveillance: Enables walkable neighborhoods and vibrant urbanism
- Some American cities don't believe crime is a serious problem, viewing current levels as acceptable
- These cities will likely experience declining populations and tax bases, creating a downward spiral until they recognize the need for action
- Cities that resist camera technology often have underlying trust issues with their local government
- In communities where residents trust their elected officials want them to succeed, camera adoption is widely embraced
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction
3:00 - The State of Crime in America
6:04 - Crime Statistics Debate
10:59 - The Solution: Cameras Everywhere
12:15 - Sponsors: Notion | NetSuite
17:00 - How Deterrence Really Works
19:35 - Japan's Success with Cameras
22:46 - Privacy and Cultural Trade-offs
25:50 - Sponsor: Found
38:35 - Economic Benefits and Policy
44:19 - Closing Thoughts
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Gulf Arab countries could potentially assist with Gaza's economic development given their expertise
Israel has been militarily successful against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran but faces global criticism
Israel's approach to international criticism has often relied on projecting strength rather than building alliances
Israel remains dependent on other countries for military supplies despite its own manufacturing capabilities
Regular people are disengaging from politics, leaving only the most extreme voices engaged ("evaporative cooling effect")
Political discussions on platforms like X (Twitter) have become increasingly extreme
Young political staffers who work for both parties are heavily consuming this extremist content
The speakers observe parallels to the political unrest of the 1960s-70s, which eventually dissipated
Unlike previous eras, today's extremism remains highly visible online even as the general public tunes out
Discussion of Zohran Mamdani's election in New York as representing a new direction in leftist politics
Concern about the mainstreaming of far-right figures like Nick Fuentes who previously were more fringe
The conversation reflects concern about the polarization between extremes while the majority of people disengage
There's agreement that substantive engagement with ideas is needed rather than simply dismissing opponents
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Timestamps:
00:00 — Introduction
00:24 — Europe and Russia
03:02 — China and Electric Cars
04:38 — Israel-Gaza Conflict
06:43 — American Sentiment Toward Israel
09:57 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
12:00 — Online Extremism and Political Disengagement
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Noah advocated for employer-focused enforcement through company audits and fines rather than deportations.
PEG supported stronger deportation measures and argued for the value of deterrence.
They debated whether deportations would reduce crime affecting legal residents.
Both agreed on the fiscal costs of illegal immigration as a significant issue.
They discussed the political challenges of passing immigration reform.
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Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 05:00 – Philosophical Foundations: Borders, Nations, and Policy 09:00 – “No Human is Illegal” & Historical Context 13:25 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite 15:30 – Enforcement, Detention, and Public Perception 24:00 – Asylum Law, Legislative Gridlock, and Political Realities 28:10 – Sponsor: Found 41:00 – Mass Deportation: Crime, Economics, and Evidence 56:00 – Trust, Public Sentiment, and Policy Limits 1:10:00 – Final Thoughts & Outro -
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Vertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining traction
China controls the majority of rare earth mining and refining
The US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:
Regulatory barriers to mining
Lack of solvent extraction technology and know-how
China's fertility rate is lower than Japan and Europe
However, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term
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Timestamps: 00:00 — Intro 00:52 — AI’s impact on productivity 02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity 03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity’s impact on productivity, lessons for AI 07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite 09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications 12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms) 16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models 22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges 32:20 — Sponsor: Found 33:33 — China’s demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation 54:06 — Recommendations for China’s economic policy, rationalizing the economy -
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Employment Evolution, Not Elimination: Research shows unemployment rising in jobs that use AI less, contradicting fears that AI directly replaces workers
Data Center Financing Risks: How financing methods for AI infrastructure could create systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis if private credit becomes the main vehicle
Bond Market Shift: Companies like Meta are increasingly issuing their own bonds rather than using opaque private credit markets, a healthier approach to AI infrastructure financing
Multiple Winners in AI: How the massive size of AI markets is enabling multiple successful companies in each category despite traditional concerns about moats
Venture Capital's AI Approach: a16z has been investing heavily in AI companies but feels they've been "too conservative" given the multiple winners emerging across categories
Quotes:
"We tend to think that the markets are just so much bigger, and so even if there's no traditional moats protecting it from other entrants, that there can be multiple winners in a category.” - Erik Torenberg
Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co
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FOLLOW ON X:
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@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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Current AI Limitations: Present systems lack crucial continual learning capabilities that would allow them to build context over time and improve with experience like humans do
Historical Parallels: The conquistadors' conquest of the Aztec and Inca empires provides a cautionary tale about information asymmetry and how technological advantages can lead to domination
AI Cooperation: The hosts discuss the need for US-China cooperation on AI safety, similar to the "red telephone" during the Cold War, to prevent AI-related sabotage
AI Market Competition: Analysis of the surprising trend of increasing rather than decreasing competitors at the AI frontier, despite rising costs of training frontier models
Network Effects vs. Technical Capability: Discussion of whether brand recognition (like "ChatGPT") or technological advantages will determine market leaders
Quotes:
"If you make the best AI, it gets even better. So why enter that? That's the big question." - Noah Smith
Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co
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FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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Development Models in Emerging Economies: Case studies like Vietnam and Bangladesh demonstrating different paths to economic development
The Crime Rate Decline: Focused deterrence approaches and community policing helping reduce violent crime, especially among high-risk populations
Education and Fertility Rates: The inverse relationship between women's education and fertility rates, and the impossibility of reversing it without dystopian measures
AI and Population Dynamics: How artificial intelligence might mitigate economic damage from population decline by replacing human labor
Quotes:
"If AI really can replace humans, then that will mitigate the economic damage from the losses of population." - Noah Smith
"Murders between people who know each other, between people who are like intimate partner violence has gone way down." - Noah Smith
"We need to basically create technologies that make it easy to take care of kids so that parenthood doesn't mean it's giant change in your life." - Noah Smith
The "Electric Tech Stack" Revolution: Electric Tech Stack" - batteries, motors, power electronics, and chips. This stack is replacing traditional manufacturing across industries, turning everything from cars to military equipment into "fancy drones.
Why America Struggles with Manufacturing: Engineers live in expensive NIMBY cities while factory workers live elsewhere, breaking the crucial feedback loop needed for hardware iteration.
China's Advantages: Chinese companies expect to build 200-300 prototype units before shipping, with engineers working directly with factory workers.
Policy Solutions: Every major US city needs its own "Shenzhen" - a nearby manufacturing hub where engineers can drive to factories in 2 hours.
The Appliance Strategy: Sam's company Impulse is using battery-powered stoves as a trojan horse to rebuild America's electric tech stack manufacturing base. By creating domestic demand for these technologies outside EVs, they're building the supply chain that other companies can leverage.
The Stakes: The conversation emphasizes that this isn't just about economics - it's about national security. When Ukraine's toy drones can destroy Russian bombers 4,000 kilometers away, mastering the electric tech stack becomes a matter of military survival.
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