The Rock and Turner Investment Podcast – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Judges Scientific Plc (JDG.L), listed on AIM, has built its entire identity around one thing: a disciplined and highly effective buy-and-build strategy. Over the years, that strategy has turned the company into a respected specialist in high-end, niche scientific instruments: pieces of mission-critical kit used by universities, research labs, manufacturers and regulators around the world.

Since its founding in 2002 and its first acquisition in 2005, Judges has become one of the most successful consolidators in a fragmented industry. It targets high-quality businesses with dependable sales, profits and cash flow, and once they’re brought into the group, they benefit from steady operational support and the financial stability of a larger organisation. Their cash generation then fuels debt reduction and funds the next round of acquisitions. It’s a flywheel that has been spinning for two decades, helping the company deliver an impressive 24% compound annual growth rate since its IPO in 2003.

But the last 18 months have tested that model in ways investors haven’t seen for years. The share price has fallen more than 50%, not because the strategy has failed, but because several challenges arrived all at once.

First, the company’s valuation had simply run too hot. After years of near-flawless execution, the stock was priced for perfection, and that left no room for disappointment. The disappointment came in the form of a major acquisition that didn’t perform as expected in its first year, triggering a profits warning and shaking confidence.

Then came external pressures. China shifted its procurement policies in favour of domestic suppliers, creating an abrupt slowdown in demand for Judges’ instruments. Meanwhile, in the US, delays and cuts in federal research budgets put pressure on university spending, squeezing order flow from another key region.

And layered on top of all of this was the news that long-standing CEO and founder David Cicurel will step down in February 2026. Any leadership transition naturally results in uncertainty and anxiety among investors.

Taken together, it was a perfect storm.

Yet storms pass, and in Judges’ case, many of the clouds already appear to be clearing. The valuation multiple is now roughly half its peak, creating a far more reasonable starting point for new investors. The large acquisition that stumbled out of the gate is showing clear signs of recovery in its second year. Chinese demand is beginning to rebound, and US university funding conditions are improving. More particularly, the succession plan looks solid: Cicurel will move into the role of Non-Executive Chairman, while incoming CEO Dr Tim Prestidge, currently Group Business Development Director, offers continuity rather than disruption.

Crucially, the earnings power of the business hasn’t deteriorated. If anything, the cadence of acquisitions means its long-term potential is stronger than ever. For some investors, the recent sell-off may look less like a red flag and more like an opportunity.

Judges Scientific remains a business with a proven model, a strong culture and a two-decade track record of compounding growth. To dive deeper into the company’s history, challenges and prospects, enjoy this podcast conversation with Chris Waller of Plural Investing, author of the Hidden Gems Substack and a former Goldman Sachs Asset Management professional with an MBA from Columbia Business School.

In this short 10 minute interview, Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google owner Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), emphasizes the importance, and dangers, of AI.

Cautiously optimistic, is the best way to sum up his views. He is realistic as he declares that not even Google is immune if the AI bubble bursts.

Well worth a listen.

Disclaimer: This is for information purposes only. It is not investment advice. The author has a position in the securities discussed. Seek professional advice before investing.

I posted some analysis on Monday of this week on a small and largely unknown business which I believe is ridiculously mispriced. That analysis seems to have gone viral and so for the benefit of anyone who missed it, here is a short podcast with highlights from that analysis, showcasing this extraordinary investment opportunity.

Manolete Partners (London: MANO) stock traded at 72p on 20th January (last week). Since publishing my analysis the stock has shot up to 96p today (+33%), yet this is only the start of a very long journey. In my opinion, these are a buy and hold for the long-term. My price target is over 300p, returning to where this stock traded in May 2022 - the company is far stronger today than it was back then.

* Founder owns 10% and still serves as CEO 16 years after founding

* A long track record of success

* An investment firm able to compound at ~17% annually

* Niche market - 67% market share - barriers to entry

* Huge growth runway ahead

* Share price only a fraction of intrinsic value

* A Covid-19 headwind has turned into a strong tailwind propelling growth

* Next 12 month EV/EBITDA <1x

“The impact of Covid-19, and its consequences on the global economy, is likely to underpin Manolete's strong growth prospects for the foreseeable future".

Steven Cooklin, CEO

Having followed this company for several years and recently met with its CEO, I understand how 2025 will deliver the catalysts that will undoubtedly deliver a re-rating of the stock.

For a detailed analysis, be sure to read the full report that inspired this podcast:

https://rockandturner.substack.com/p/manolete-partners-special-investment

Rock and Turner Investment Analysis is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Best Ideas 2025 is the thirteenth edition of a fully online investment conference, hosted by MOI Global.

A small number of investors were chosen to pitch strong conviction investment ideas to the MOI community and the video/podcast above includes my pitch focused on Haivision. There is also a bonus section included in this video which features the CEO of Haivision, Mirko Wicha, explaining the company’s heritage, business model and prospects for the future.

For further reading, it was based on the Substack post below:

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Ben Claremon, of Devonshire Partners, hosts the Compounders podcast. He recently published an episode featuring an interview with me which he kindly allowed me to reproduce here.

We discussed risk management, geographic diversification, the nuances of investing in Japan and China, dividend policies, stock based compensation, factors distorting the markets, relative valuations of US and European companies and we explored the attributes of Dutch company Adyen that make it an interesting investment opportunity.

We also discussed the book, Fabric of Success:

Enjoy the interview and feel free to share it with others.

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Disclaimer & Disclosure: Participants may have positions in the businesses mentioned in this interview. This post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Conduct your own due diligence and seek professional investment advice before making any investment decisions.

This is a special podcast, capturing an interview that I gave to MOI Global. In it, we discuss the book, Fabric of Success and investing themes more generally, including the importance of management, capital allocation, the importance of location, dividend policy and so much more. Enjoy!

About MOI Global

MOI Global, which originated from ‘The Manual of Ideas’ over a decade ago, has evolved into an exclusive, invitation-only community for intelligent investors passionate about lifelong learning.

The community, created by John Mihaljevic, aims to support its members throughout their investing journey and remains committed to building a unique environment for high-caliber investors to connect, learn, and grow together.

Initially focused on content creation for value-oriented investors, the organization recognized the strength of the tight-knit value investing community and expanded its offerings to include member publications, online events, and offline experiences.

Today, MOI Global provides a platform for exceptional investors to share their wisdom, fosters a global network of like-minded individuals, and offers a range of benefits to its members, including access to curated investment idea presentations, conferences, and local chapter meetings worldwide.

It is an exclusive, invitation only, membership body in which members have typically introduced others if they believe that they are able to add value to the community. However, it closed its doors to new members in 2017, although it does maintain a waiting list for those interested in membership.

About the Book, “Fabric of Success”

Most businesses are mediocre at best, but a small percentage stand out as exceptional. One thing distinguishes one type from the other – the management.

In 1997, Apple was on the brink of collapse with less than 90 days of cash flow remaining, yet today it stands as one of the greatest businesses on the planet. The pivot occurred when Steve Jobs took over from John Sculley. The same company, with different management, produced dramatically different outcomes.

Similarly, while most airlines struggle with profitability and often succumb to bankruptcy, Southwest Airlines achieved 40 years of uninterrupted profitability, making it best in class by a country mile. Its secret was Herb Kelleher, its brilliant and unconventional CEO.

This pattern repeats in every industry from freight, textile mills and car rentals, to tire-fitting, technology and fashion. The book unravels the golden threads that run through the tapestry of all of these wonderful businesses.

This podcast is the latest in our series on mental models. Part 3 focuses on what gives a business a durable advantage. It isn’t about being incrementally better than the competition, but fundamentally different.

Be sure to read the full article:

In today's special episode we're exploring the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, happening from October 22nd to 24th, 2024. This summit brings together leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa to discuss a bold initiative: reducing the bloc's dependence on the US dollar.

Amidst ongoing efforts to reshape the global financial landscape, Russia and Iran are leading the charge toward a new financial system that aims to be independent of Western influence. While China's support adds momentum to the initiative, India's cautious stance highlights the complexities within the BRICS bloc. The inclusion of Iran adds an intriguing ideological element, raising questions about how economic priorities and political differences will play out.

Join us as we break down the diverse motivations driving each member, the potential impacts on the global order, and what this push for a more multipolar world could mean for the future.

SHOW NOTES

The 16th annual BRICS summit will be held in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-24, 2024. This year's summit is especially concerning, given its objectives amidst escalating geopolitical tensions that have been mounting since the COVID-19 pandemic. These tensions include the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and disputes over Taiwan. While appearing isolated in nature, these events are all connected. We explore the potential implications, including the destabilization of the existing global order, the erosion of the globalization framework that has served us well for decades, and the undermining of the current financial system.

The BRICS bloc, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has launched efforts to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global finance. Russia, with strong backing from Iran, is leading this initiative, seeking to create a financial system that operates independently of Western influence. The upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan will feature leaders from over 24 countries discussing plans to establish a new payments infrastructure, possibly including digital currencies or a BRICS-based currency. The primary goal is to reduce dependence on the dollar and diminish the geopolitical power the U.S. wields through its financial system.

Russia's motivation stems largely from the economic consequences of Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, which have significantly disrupted its economy. By advancing the BRICS initiative, Russia hopes to weaken the U.S.-dominated global financial architecture that facilitates sanctions and political leverage. The group's expansion and focus on financial independence signal a more determined effort to challenge the existing financial order, particularly as other BRICS members share an interest in creating alternatives to the dollar.

The responses of BRICS members to this initiative vary. China supports it as it aligns with its strategy to internationalize the yuan and reduce vulnerability to U.S. sanctions. China has already been developing alternatives to dollar-based systems through digital payment platforms and currency agreements. Meanwhile, India is more cautious, especially regarding proposals for a common BRICS currency, due to concerns about China's influence and differing geopolitical interests. This reflects the internal complexities of achieving consensus within BRICS.

The involvement of new members like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Argentina, and Egypt adds further diversity to the group. While these nations are attracted to the idea of diversifying away from the dollar, they may approach the initiative cautiously because of their longstanding economic ties with the U.S., especially regarding oil and trade. Brazil and South Africa, on the other hand, see the initiative as an opportunity to secure economic growth, diversify trade, and advocate for a fairer financial system that benefits developing countries. Each participant has unique motivations, yet they share a general desire to reform the global financial system and reduce the dollar's dominance.

Iran's involvement brings an additional ideological dimension to the BRICS initiative. For Iran, challenging the U.S.-led financial system is not just a geopolitical move but also a religious and ideological one. Iran’s leadership views resistance to Western influence as a moral and religious duty, connected to its revolutionary ideology that opposes U.S. hegemony. Iran sees financial independence from the dollar as a way to further its vision of Islamic governance and reduce Western economic control. This ideological stance makes Iran more willing to push for confrontational approaches within the BRICS framework.

The potential clash between Iran's religiously motivated goals and the more pragmatic objectives of other BRICS members could pose risks to the initiative. While countries like Russia may share Iran's desire to weaken U.S. influence, other members, such as China and India, are more focused on economic and strategic interests than ideological conflict. China, in particular, values its economic ties with Western countries and may not want to be associated with Iran's anti-Western rhetoric. Similarly, India balances its relationship with Iran alongside partnerships with the U.S. and Israel, making it cautious about aligning with Iran’s ideological goals.

Iran's religious ideology also affects its approach to regional conflicts. It aims to use any financial gains from the BRICS initiative to support its proxies across the middle east including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both recognized by the West as terrorist organizations, Shia militias in Iraq, and the Houthi movement in Yemen. This could provoke concerns among other members wary of exacerbating tensions with the West. The risk of appearing to support Iran's agenda could alienate members like Brazil and South Africa, who are focused on economic development and prefer to avoid entangling the BRICS initiative in ideological disputes. This divergence in objectives underscores the potential challenges in maintaining the group's cohesion.

Despite these internal differences, BRICS remains united in its desire to establish a more multipolar financial order that reduces Western influence. Establishing a new financial system involves significant challenges, including ensuring liquidity, regulatory cooperation, and governance structures. Geopolitical distrust, particularly between China and India, could complicate efforts to implement a unified strategy. While Iran’s ideological stance might motivate stronger efforts to challenge the West, other members may advocate for more incremental changes to avoid confrontation.

Russia, Iran, China, South Africa, and Brazil each have distinct endgames. Russia seeks to erode U.S. financial dominance and reassert itself as a global power. Iran aims for greater financial freedom to support its regional ambitions, driven by both geopolitical and religious objectives. China’s long-term goal is to internationalize the yuan and reduce its reliance on the dollar, positioning itself as the world’s leading economic power. South Africa and Brazil prioritize economic diversification and regional leadership, driven by practical considerations rather than ideological ones. These varied motivations illustrate the complexity of the BRICS initiative.

In conclusion, while the BRICS financial initiative is broadly aimed at reforming the global financial system, Iran’s religious and ideological agenda adds a unique layer to the group’s objectives. This dimension could create tensions, especially if Iran pushes for a more confrontational approach than what other members are willing to support. Nonetheless, the initiative highlights a shared interest among emerging economies in challenging the current order and signals a shift toward a world where the balance of power is increasingly contested. The future of the BRICS initiative will depend on how well the group can navigate these differences and implement a coherent strategy.

Politically, the world appears to be in its most fragile state since the end of the cold war in 1991. Thirty four years of peace and prosperity may be coming to an end. We should all sit up and take notice because we are now sailing through uncharted waters and have no idea of the dangers that may lie ahead.

This podcast accompanies the series of articles exploring mental models. This one "The Democratization of Goods and Services" is a podcast based on a post of the same title (click here).

It explores the idea that a company's success is more dependent on reaching a broad customer base than on the quality of its products or services. Drawing on Charlie Munger's concept of a latticework of mental models, the author illustrates how companies that prioritize accessibility and affordability tend to be more profitable than those focusing on exclusivity and high margins.

The discussion highlights that companies democratizing their industries - by making their products and services widely accessible - benefit from increased market reach, innovation, positive brand associations, and contribute to economic growth.

This podcast focuses on a speech that Charlie Munger gave back in 1994 at the University of Southern California, entitled ‘The Art of Stock Picking’.

It explains the approach that he and Warren Buffett deployed to achieve outstanding results. It’s not complicated, and easy to follow, but most people do the exact opposite.

If you want to do more reading, the podcast was based on text that may be found if you click here.

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