Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast The Julia La Roche Show
| Titre | Date | Durée | |
|---|---|---|---|
| #416 Chris Whalen: Cheap Credit Is Over, K-Shaped Economy Becoming an L, Long Energy & Short Financials | 03 oct. 2026 | 00:33:59 | |
The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a weak jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added against expectations of 90,000, and long-term yields still elevated. Chris argues that rising bond yields reflect real inflation running in the mid-to-high single digits, well above the official numbers, and that the era of Fed-suppressed rates that began in 2008 is over. He expects the Fed to hold in October and possibly hike in November, and makes the case that Powell gave Trump nearly everything he wanted while incoming Chair Warsh is a hawk. Chris explains why $8–9 diesel and high replacement costs mean building more homes won't fix affordability, and why consumer credit stress is spreading upward. In his words, the K-shaped economy is "fast becoming an L." He reveals he's now short a couple of bank names, has rotated heavily into energy, and sees "long energy, short financials" as the trade for the next year or two. He also previews a tough midterm for Republicans, answers a viewer question on raising taxes, and discusses Judy Shelton's move to Treasury and his critique of the FASB's mortgage servicing rights proposal. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 – Welcome to The Wrap 0:18 – Jobs report misses badly, but yields stay high 1:28 – Is real inflation higher than the official stats? 2:51 – October FOMC: hike, hold, or wait for November? 4:20 – Powell gave Trump everything he wanted 6:24 – The easy environment is over: diesel and demand destruction 7:36 – Why building more homes won't fix affordability 9:28 – 7%+ mortgage rates and pain in the mortgage industry 10:40 – Portfolio rebalancing: selling financials, buying energy 11:43 – Cracks in consumer credit 13:01 – Restaurant and grocery margins (and the Publix real estate play) 14:45 – The K-shaped economy is becoming an L 17:11 – Why Chris is bearish on banks and shorting a few 18:34 – Is a recession ahead? 18:56 – Midterms, affordability, and Trump's lame-duck period 21:29 – Will Warsh give Trump what he wants? 23:36 – Viewer Q: Why not raise taxes to cut the deficit? 25:36 – Judy Shelton joins Treasury, and gold as money 27:01 – Chris critiques the FASB mortgage servicing rights proposal 29:08 – What Chris is watching: credit markets and Q3 earnings 31:18 – Why this year will be remembered as extraordinary 31:58 – Wrap-up | |||
| #415 Dr. Mark Thornton: The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning Nobody in Washington Wants to Fix | 01 oct. 2026 | 00:54:04 | |
Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, joins Julia to explain why the bond market is the pivotal story right now. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, the national debt is over $40 trillion, and deficits are running at about $2 trillion a year. Thornton argues that this is wartime-level borrowing during supposedly good times. It crowds out private investment, weighs on wages, and widens the K-shaped divide between asset owners and everyone else. He explains why he thinks the Fed's recent hike won't be its last. In his view, Chairman Warsh and Secretary Bessent are managing the problem rather than solving it, and a market break or crisis could give the Fed cover to restart money printing. He describes the US as merging onto the "highway to hyperinflation," draws on historical cases from Revolutionary France to Weimar Germany, and closes with why he expects hard assets and commodities to outperform financial assets over the next decade. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links X: https://x.com/DrMarkThornton Free Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspx Mises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thornton Timestamps: 0:00 Intro: Why bonds are the big worry 0:43 Big picture: 10- and 30-year yields at 25-year highs 4:24 Are we in a new higher-rate regime? 11:48 Wartime deficits in "good times" 18:21 Who wins and who loses from easy money 20:25 Young people, housing, and the K-shaped economy 24:02 Food, energy, and the Persian Gulf conflict 28:10 Are we on the on-ramp to hyperinflation? 34:03 Fed rate hikes: more coming, and what's next 39:27 No consequences: the "magic checkbook" 47:28 How to protect yourself: hard assets 51:28 Where to find Dr. Thornton's work | |||
| #414 Andy Constan: Markets Vulnerable to Disappointment, Cautious on Equities, and the 60/40 Strikes Back | 29 sept. 2026 | 00:56:51 | |
Andy Constan, founder and CIO of Damped Spring and a veteran of Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. He lays out his four-pillar macro framework and explains why he's turning cautious on equities despite a strong U.S. economy. His "pie theory" argues that the earnings AI companies are promising add up to more than the GDP available to deliver them. His "hamburger theory" warns that the massive borrowing needed to fund AI capex could stall if capital markets take a breather. With rates spiking for the seventh time since COVID, Constan doubts policymakers will engineer another V-top. He is currently short equities and max long long-term bonds, arguing that the much-maligned 60/40 portfolio is finally worth owning again. He also gives his early read on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, explains what it would really take to kill inflation, and argues that this cycle has no clean historical analog because it's fueled by public-sector rather than private-sector debt. He closes with the story of analyzing every trade from the 1987 crash on the Brady Commission at age 23, and his core advice: own a well-constructed portfolio at your risk target and hold it for life. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Website: https://dampedspring.com/ Substack: https://substack.com/@dampedspring Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome Andy Constan The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. | |||
| #413 Chris Whalen: Bonds, Gold, Energy, & the Coming Food Shock | 26 sept. 2026 | 00:32:20 | |
Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already "baked into the cake," and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 – Preview 0:28 – Welcome to The Wrap 1:06 – 30-year yield hits 2004 high, 10-year breaks 5% 2:18 – 7%+ mortgage rates: the new normal 3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry 4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end 5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk 6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system 7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals 8:55 – Why rising yields haven't broken the gold thesis 9:49 – The dollar and a multilateral currency world 11:58 – October hike? The refinery capacity crisis 14:05 – Diesel, sulfur, and the fertilizer shock 15:40 – Double-digit inflation is "baked into the cake" 16:36 – The endgame: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz 18:22 – Demand destruction and why the Fed may cut 21:24 – Viewer Q: Selling Annaly, buying energy 23:36 – Viewer Q: Any shorts? 24:21 – Viewer Q: An oversight board for Congress and means-testing Social Security 27:42 – Why Social Security is invested in Treasuries 29:10 – Viewer Q: Will housing prices fall? 30:23 – Viewer Q: Private credit and long-term care policies 31:25 – Wrap-up The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. | |||
| #412 Michael Pento: 2027 Will Be a Very Difficult Year – Here's Why | 24 sept. 2026 | 00:49:30 | |
Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche Show to warn that the U.S. faces what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit, all inflated at once for the first time in history. He argues that years of persistent inflation, soaring national debt, foreign creditors stepping back from Treasuries, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade are pushing bond yields higher, and that rising rates will ultimately burst all three bubbles. For the first time since 2021, Pento gives a timeline: he expects 2027 to be a very difficult year as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh hikes rates and slows balance sheet growth, putting it in direct conflict with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to hold down long-term yields. Pento explains why he reluctantly uses the word "depression," why the traditional 60/40 portfolio could fail retirees, and why he believes the Fed will eventually return to money printing, triggering a prolonged era of "hyperstagflation." He also shares how he's positioned today, still net long, with short-term Treasuries, dividend payers, and precious metals, while watching credit markets closely because "the clock is ticking." Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento 0:00 Cold open: "With reluctance, depression" 0:19 Welcome back, Michael Pento 0:59 The macro picture: 5+ years of inflation crushing consumers 4:16 Insolvency, foreign creditors & the yen carry trade unwind 8:15 Sponsor: Monetary Metals 10:06 The "triumvirate of bubbles": stocks, real estate & credit 14:40 Not a perma-bear: 35 years in the business 15:18 Pento's first timeline since 2021: why 2027 20:08 The forgotten middle class & why the pain is necessary 21:39 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals 23:12 Warsh vs. Bessent: are the Fed and Treasury at odds? 24:43 Who wins? "The free market always wins" 25:43 Why he's calling it a depression, not a recession 28:26 Retirees beware: the danger of the 60/40 portfolio 33:02 Where to hide in "hyperstagflation" 34:48 How Pento is positioned right now (still net long) 39:19 Is there hope on the other side? 42:32 The biggest risk nobody's watching: long-term rates 43:33 Record debt, private credit & "this is not normal" 46:28 How to follow Michael Pento | |||
| #411 George Noble: Market Is Entering a Dangerous Phase | 22 sept. 2026 | 00:40:04 | |
George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, joins Julia in studio as the 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5% and the Fed hikes rates. George says his call is "rotation, not recession." He's passionately bearish on tech and consumer discretionary and wildly bullish on gold and energy, which have been on fire this year. He argues the bond market is driving everything: runaway deficits and the AI capex boom are pushing up the global cost of capital. In his view, today's rates aren't abnormal; the long era of depressed rates was. He gives a pointed critique of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's attempts to suppress yields and explains why the Fed follows the market rather than leading it. He also makes the case that the real bubble is in earnings, not valuations. The conversation covers private credit, the housing correction, $40 trillion in debt, and the money illusion of pricing assets in dollars rather than gold. George explains why he thinks rates and oil keep rising until the market breaks, and why the risk-reward favors gold, energy, and cash over the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/ X: https://x.com/gnoble79 Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:12 Big picture: "weeks where decades happen" as the 10-year breaks 5% 2:23 "R is for rotation, not recession" 5:18 How high can rates go? Why the ultra-low-rate era was the abnormal one 8:28 Why we're in a dangerous phase of the market 11:46 Why rotation comes before recession: deficits are force-feeding the economy 12:57 Passionately bearish on consumer, wildly bullish on gold and energy 13:31 George's critique of Scott Bessent, plus lessons from Soros vs. the Bank of England 16:45 "I am the house": Bessent, hubris, and Mr. Market 20:18 $40 trillion in debt and "banana republic" behavior 21:48 Midterm elections and what a sweep could mean for markets 22:20 The ticking clock in private credit and private equity 23:17 The Fed's rate hike: Warsh, word salad, and why the Fed follows the market 28:07 The real bubble isn't valuations, it's earnings 30:25 The housing correction is already happening 31:11 Money illusion: the S&P and bonds priced in gold, not "American pesos" 35:35 What "the market breaks" actually looks like 38:44 How George is positioned: gold, energy, cash, and picking stocks 39:17 Closing thoughts | |||
| #410 Chris Whalen: Age of Uncertainty - Falling Home Prices, Cracks in Private Credit, & Sidelined Fed | 19 sept. 2026 | 00:34:17 | |
Chris Whalen returns after the FOMC's 25-basis-point hike and calls it what he wrote in his notes: lame. His argument is that the Fed has become the tail and the Treasury the dog — with a $2 trillion deficit running above 6% of GDP, monetary policy is close to irrelevant, and Kevin Warsh will eventually be forced back into QE and debt monetization whether he wants it or not. That leaves Congress, which Whalen says has stopped doing the one job only it can do, prompting a provocative exchange with Julia about whether a fiscal crisis ends with a manager running the purse the way FDR ran 1933. From there the conversation turns to where the damage shows up: housing, where more than half of American homes fell in price over the past year and Whalen expects a real correction into 2028; private credit and insurance, where he agrees with Jeffrey Gundlach that private credit is the fuse and the insurers are the bomb, and warns annuity holders at the wrong carriers may not be made whole; and energy, where the Houthis' grip on the Red Sea may force the refining industry to redeploy away from the Persian Gulf entirely. He also walks through his own portfolio — Schwab, Flagstar, Annaly, AGNC, and steady additions to gold and silver — explains why he holds no T-bills, and gives his take on the SEC's innovation exemption, calling crypto tokens a polite form of fraud better regulated by state gaming commissions. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 – Welcome back 1:03 – "The Fed had to do something or be irrelevant" 5:38 – Is the FOMC even relevant anymore? 5:57 – Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail 6:20 – The Fed will be forced to monetize the debt 6:48 – A dysfunctional Congress 9:39 – The age of uncertainty 10:00 – Half of American homes fell in price this year 11:12 – Misery on the Eights: the correction into 2028 11:24 – Gundlach: private credit is the fuse, insurance is the bomb 11:50 – How PE used insurers to compound too fast 13:28 – Why annuity holders are calling 14:02 – Duration matching and the part of the industry that works 15:28 – Energy 16:03 – Trump, the war he started, and no leadership 17:15 – Echoes of the 1970s — and Europe's winter 18:41 – Bank stocks are dead; deposit costs are rising again 20:34 – The AI trade 21:28 – Where do you put money with no clear narrative? 21:48 – Gold doesn't trade like a stock 22:20 – Chris on his own portfolio 23:06 – Schwab, Bank of America, and the low-hanging fruit nobody picks 24:52 – Crypto: the SEC's innovation exemption after Clarity failed 27:03 – Can Congress legislate at all after the midterms? 28:18 – Viewer Q: Does flattening change the Annaly call? 29:33 – Why Chris owns no T-bills 30:26 – What he's watching the rest of the year 31:37 – Close The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. | |||
| #409 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Is Hiking Into Recession, Consumers Tapped Out, & Credit Tightening | 17 sept. 2026 | 00:34:32 | |
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and author of Fed Up, joins Julia La Roche to break down the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement first looked dovish, but markets reversed after Warsh's record-short 29-minute press conference hinted at more hikes. That sent the 10-year Treasury to 5.01%, its highest level since 2007. Danielle argues Warsh has broken his own "zero forward guidance" pledge and is "enamored with his narrative" of a Goldilocks economy. She points to a labor market already in recessionary territory, with long-term unemployed now outnumbering job leavers. She says core PCE inflation is on a steady path lower, while households face mounting strain from gas prices, utility bills, bankruptcies, and tightening credit. The two also discuss the K-shaped economy and why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not be done acting on the bond market. Danielle explains why peak AI investment, propped up by hyperscaler accounting gains, is the biggest risk she sees. She closes on an optimistic note about the work ethic of today's college-age generation. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 0:40 Fed hikes 25 bps: the big-picture takeaway 1:22 Markets price in three more hikes after the press conference 4:21 Assessing Warsh so far: forward guidance despite his pledge 5:37 Fed projections: 2.5% core PCE, 4.1% unemployment 7:02 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals 8:26 Labor market already in recessionary territory 10:12 Warsh is "enamored with his narrative" 10:53 The household squeeze: gas, utilities, beef to chicken 11:47 Even the top of the K is losing confidence 12:19 AI was 100% of GDP growth, and real AI investment has turned 13:20 Payroll data quirks: the World Cup hiring surge 14:06 Sponsor: Monetary Metals 15:33 Trump's reaction: 10-year at 5.01%, stocks down 16:05 Scott Bessent isn't finished 17:04 Warsh gives Bessent the Heisman 17:41 10-year at a 19-year high, and the Fed was easing last time 18:14 What the Fed is getting wrong: August's one-off inflation blips 20:03 Core PCE is coming down, plus BEA methodology changes 20:56 Bankruptcy lawyers are making bank: record filings 22:23 Do rate hikes even work? Cash-out refis and credit tightening 23:29 The stock market isn't the economy: airlines and the top of the K 25:16 Is Warsh chasing the wrong monkey on his back? 25:47 Other worries: PE bankruptcies, rogue AI agents, socialism 27:22 Bernanke's 2% target and post-COVID stimulus 28:31 The risk keeping her up at night: peak AI investment 29:49 Hyperscaler accounting games and the "E" in P/E 31:40 What's making her optimistic 33:25 Wrap-up | |||
| #408 Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street | 16 sept. 2026 | 01:02:22 | |
Legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. He warns that the market has "crossed over to the hard side of the street." With the Shiller CAPE above 42, he says history points to negative real returns for the next decade. Cracks are already showing in AI-related credit, where junk bonds and bank loans have widened sharply while the rest of high yield holds up. Gundlach says he now wants out of the AI "epicenter" entirely. He walks through his current portfolio: equal-weight equities, a barbell of high-quality bonds and local-currency emerging market debt, gold, commodities, and short-duration "dry powder." He expects CPI to print above 4% as oil tops $100 and diesel hits $8 a gallon, and he predicts a 25 basis point hike from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. He also explains why 30-year TIPS won't protect investors from rising rates and why he's skeptical of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Operation Twist. He sees a dangerous web of private credit, arbitraged credit ratings, and offshore reinsurance, calling private credit the fuse and insurance companies the bomb. He urges annuity buyers to stick with mutual insurers and warns that bailout pressure will be intense when the AI and private markets reckoning arrives.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@DoubleLineCapitalWebsite: https://doubleline.com/Webcasts: https://doubleline.com/doubleline-webcasts/0:00 Intro | |||
| #407 Chris Whalen: $100 Oil, 5% Rates, and a Home Price Correction Coming for the Whole Country | 12 sept. 2026 | 00:36:41 | |
The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a summer vacation with a blunt read on the fall ahead: affordability — fuel, housing, food — has already decided the midterms, and the Iran conflict plus the Russia-Ukraine war have created a shortage not just of crude but of refined products, with refinery maintenance season and the shift to heating oil set to push prices higher still. He calls $100 oil and a 5% 10-year Treasury the new normal, argues Scott Bessent's buyback strategy has failed, and expects a quarter-point hike next week while raising the more unsettling question: what happens if the Fed raises short rates and the long end goes up anyway? On gold, Whalen is still accumulating, sees $6,000–$7,000 only after a fiscal catalyst like a bad Treasury auction, and points to Shanghai's gold-linked clearing system and Russia's 100-ton sale to China as evidence of where physical demand really lives. He also answers viewer questions on the exodus at Fannie Mae, the flawed data behind credit scores, how to actually save in gold, why he owns only Flagstar and Schwab, and warns that Florida's home price correction is coming for the rest of the country next year. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 – Welcome back: summer's over, a lot to catch up on 0:50 – Energy prices and the midterms: decided at the pump? 1:13 – Affordability is the story: diesel, heating oil, Europe's supply crisis 2:51 – The $5,000 "Trump dividend" and buying votes 4:13 – What nobody in Washington will say about insolvency 5:00 – FDICIA, continuing resolutions, and a Congress that can't say no 6:34 – Oil near $100: does it get worse from here? 7:33 – Rates "going back to normal" after 15 years of Fed subsidy 9:24 – Calling 5% on the 10-year — and Bessent's failed buyback strategy 10:29 – Warsh rules out QE, spreads tighten anyway 11:57 – Why banks are suddenly buying multifamily 12:58 – Is 5% a stop along the way or the destination? 14:31 – What Chris expects from the Fed next week 15:06 – The big question: what if the Fed has lost the long end? 16:11 – What losing control of long rates would actually signal 17:24 – Gold with David Kotok, and why it's not a trading vehicle 18:28 – Tom McClellan on the oil–gold relationship (with a 16-month lag) 20:09 – A quiet year: banks, AI trade, and boring winners 21:17 – What takes gold from $4–5K to $6–7K 22:00 – Russia sells 100 tons of gold to China 22:53 – Is the dollar really in decline? CIPS, Shanghai, and sanctions 24:12 – How high can diesel and Brent go this winter? 25:30 – Iran, the Houthis, and the Red Sea 26:59 – Viewer Q: What's happening inside Fannie Mae? 28:30 – Pulte, VantageScore, and the bad-data problem in credit scoring 29:39 – Viewer Q: How do you actually save in gold? 30:45 – Florida home prices are falling — "Misery on the Eights" 31:31 – Viewer Q: The big money center banks 32:47 – Viewer Q: Book recommendations and the gold book 33:23 – Closing thoughts: an age of instability The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. | |||
| #407 Larry McDonald: The Bond Market's Biggest Contrarian Trade | 08 sept. 2026 | 00:41:34 | |
New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to break down what he's hearing from the veteran investors in his network — and the shift he's watching in real time. Portfolio managers who spent two years as raging bulls have turned bearish on the financials and are quietly spending a slice of their gains on downside protection while volatility is cheap. McDonald walks through the mechanics of the data center financing boom: hundreds of billions in off-balance-sheet debt from the hyperscalers, the banks now holding that exposure, and the credit default swaps those same banks are buying on the Mag 7. He explains why he sees a late-2006 rhyme in private credit and the CCC market, why diesel prices could re-spark inflation over the next few CPI prints, and why the most crowded trade on Wall Street right now may be the bearish one on bonds. Plus: the "supernova" dynamic that turns a hot economy into a fast recession, why he's still long hard assets, and the one risk he thinks almost nobody is talking about. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ 0:00 — Intro 1:18 — A million books sold, and what the ideas dinners reveal 3:07 — Where the smart money is shifting right now 4:39 — How investors are buying protection: CDS, puts, VIX ETFs 5:35 — Late cycle: data center financing and the Mag 7's cash burn 7:00 — Meta's $30B off-balance-sheet financing and what banks did next 8:22 — Why banks are buying CDS on the companies they lend to 9:42 — Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators: CCCs, LQD, private credit 11:00 — "You're manufacturing Bernie Madoffs": no business cycle, no cleansing 12:21 — Midterms, the Treasury, and the DSA risk to the long end 17:00 — Why inflation isn't as tame as it looks — diesel is the tell 18:56 — Scott Bessent vs. the "faculty lounge" Treasury 21:44 — The Google bond at 88, the Apple bond at 49 23:39 — Are there hidden SVBs out there? 25:55 — The contrarian trade: buying duration when everyone's bearish 27:42 — What the bond market is signaling 29:40 — Why the bad news is 80-90% priced in 31:49 — The supernova effect and how recessions actually start 33:06 — Hedging equities: puts on the financials at record price-to-book 34:30 — Biggest under-the-radar risk 36:00 — What he's still long: energy, coal, copper, gold miners 37:22 — Where to find the Bear Traps Report | |||
| #406 Chris Whalen Answers Your Questions on Gold, the Fed, and Retirement Risk | 29 août 2026 | 00:31:58 | |
In part two of the all-viewer-question edition of The Wrap, Chris Whalen and Julia tackle everything from gold confiscation to credit union safety. Chris argues that a 1933-style seizure is possible in a debt crisis, since heavy government borrowing effectively encumbers every asset in the country, and that offshore physical gold is the only real protection. He explains why rising gold prices pressure the Treasury and gradually erode the dollar's role as the world's medium of exchange, drawing parallels to the monetary fragmentation of post-Roman Europe that he's been researching for his upcoming book. Along the way he critiques Jerome Powell for extending QE long after credit spreads normalized in 2020, pushes back on fears of a boomer-driven market selloff, breaks down how Annaly Capital actually makes money, flags private-credit takeovers of insurance companies as a genuine risk to annuity holders, and shares his own portfolio split. He closes with thoughts on land value taxes, the likelihood of a US VAT, and life in Florida versus New York. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 - Cold open: "No democracy can have sound money" 0:25 - Welcome back — viewer questions only 1:31 - Could the government confiscate gold again like 1933? 4:50 - Inside Chris's new book on gold 6:37 - Gold price outlook: 2026, 2027, 2028 8:30 - Best ways to own metals without holding physical 9:27 - Why we ran surpluses from 1998-2001 10:30 - What Jerome Powell should have done differently 13:44 - Will retiring boomers crash the market? 15:42 - Equal-weight S&P funds at current valuations 16:04 - Nvidia financing its own customers: circular financing? 18:06 - Annaly (NLY) explained: leverage, servicing, and lending 20:51 - Common shares or preferred? 21:41 - Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? Chris's actual allocation 23:47 - Are credit unions safer than banks? 25:22 - Annuity owners: how to protect yourself from insolvency 27:07 - Land value taxes, wealth taxes, and the case for a VAT 28:37 - Florida vs. New York: an honest review 30:00 - Wrap-up and housekeeping The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. | |||
| #405 Ted Oakley: Gold Still Cheap at $4,600, The Energy Move Could Be Bigger, & 3 Signs of a Stock Market Top | 25 août 2026 | 00:45:49 | |
Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, returns to explain why he sold all his silver and much of his gold exposure in late 2025 and early 2026 — then bought it all back, and more, in mid-July. With gold near $4,600 he argues it's still roughly 18–20% below its January high and nowhere near expensive if you're thinking in terms of a one-and-a-half to two-year horizon and a $7,000–$8,000 objective. The driver, in his view, is a loss of faith in the dollar backed by a fiscal picture with no exit: within five years, entitlements plus a slice of defense will exceed total federal revenue. Oakley explains why he'll only own Treasuries inside twenty-four months, why investors stuck in 20- and 30-year bond funds have lost millions with no way out, and why energy may be the bigger opportunity than gold — underowned after years of fossil-fuel divestment, profitable at $70–80 oil, and paying dividends from 6% to 11%. He also lays out the three classic ingredients of a market top, all of which he says are now in place, and previews his forthcoming book Asleep at the Wheel, aimed at boomers who've stopped rebalancing. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:04 – Gold/silver discussion 02:44 – "Is it too late?" Gold at $4,600 03:55 – The real case for hard assets: losing faith in the dollar 05:09 – $40 trillion in debt and Bessent's long-bond buybacks 07:38 – Why Oakley won't own anything past 24 months 10:16 – What gold is signaling — and why energy could move next 12:20 – The energy thesis: underowned, cheap, 6–11% dividends 15:17 – The psychology of buying and selling 19:04 – Why energy isn't a buy-and-hold — and the copper trade 22:08 – Commodities as the AI trade, and cracks in the semis 23:37 – The three ingredients of a market top are all here 26:00 – "Aren't you missing out?" Oakley's answer 29:03 – How the Fed ruined fifteen years of price discovery 31:56 – Half the industry has never seen a real bear market 35:11 – The boomers who won't rebalance 37:00 – Asleep at the Wheel 40:32 – Parting thoughts: learn to go against the grain | |||
| #404 Chris Whalen Answers Your Questions on the Fed, Rates & the Next Bailout | 22 août 2026 | 00:24:59 | |
In part one of The Wrap's viewer question special, Chris Whalen takes on a full slate of audience questions about the Fed, the Treasury, and where rates go from here. He explains why Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent have largely written off war-driven inflation as something monetary policy can't fix, and what it would actually take to change that posture. From there he walks through the plumbing most commentary skips: why shrinking bank reserves would push short-term yields down rather than up, how the Treasury can run its own version of quantitative easing through repurchase agreements, and why the Fed's mortgage-backed securities book — much of it now carrying an average life measured in decades — represents what he calls a study in hubris. He also fields the practical questions: whether long Treasuries are worth owning (his answer is no), where he'd park cash instead, what a 5% 10-year does to the deficit math, and how big the next crisis-era bailout would have to be. The episode closes on the yen carry trade, the limits of what Washington can do about it, and Whalen's expectation that nothing difficult gets attempted before the midterms. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 — Cold open: shrinking reserves and the Treasury's repo plan 0:33 — Welcome + what this episode is (part one of viewer Q&A) 1:10 — How long will the Fed stay indifferent to inflation? 4:08 — Could we cut the Fed out of rate decisions and just use SOFR? 5:02 — Would you buy a 30-year bond at these rates? 6:35 — If the Fed shrinks its balance sheet, don't rates go up? 9:43 — What does "Treasury doing QE on the short end" actually mean? 12:30 — A word from Monetary Metals 13:56 — Can the Treasury handle 5% on the 10-year? 15:26 — T-bills — pros, cons, and better alternatives 16:25 — How big does the next bailout have to be? 18:48 — The yen, intervention, and the carry-trade squeeze 21:16 — The biggest macro story of the back half of the year 23:37 — Parting thoughts: Florida, earnings season, and UWM next week The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. | |||
| #403 Harry Dent on the Everything Bubble — And the Only Safe Haven Left | 18 août 2026 | 00:51:51 | |
Economic forecaster and bestselling author Harry Dent makes his debut on the show with one of the most aggressive bearish calls we've hosted. Dent — who built his reputation forecasting the 1980s–2000s boom and Dow 10,000 when almost nobody believed it — walks through the three long-term cycles he uses to map the economy decades ahead: the 39-year generational spending wave, the 45- and 90-year technology innovation cycles, and a geopolitical cycle. His conclusion is that the downturn that should have arrived in 2008 was smothered by roughly $31 trillion in stimulus, creating a bubble that now spans stocks, real estate, and even gold. He lays out what a full reversion looks like — a first-wave crash he thinks could be visible by October, housing down 60% in the middle of the country and more at the high end, and a path back toward the 2009 lows for equities — and explains why he believes long-dated Treasuries, not gold, are the only real safe haven. Dent also makes the case that the bust is not the enemy: it's where innovation and affordability come from, and where the millennial generation finally gets its shot. Looking past the washout, he sees India and Southeast Asia as the growth engines of the next four decades, China as structurally finished, and US tech as the thing to buy when it's on sale. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: https://hsdent.com/hs-dent-forecast/ 00:00 – Intro: Harry Dent makes his debut 00:59 – How demographics became his life's work 03:23 – The 45- and 90-year cycles that create bubbles 04:15 – Calling the 2007 top back in the 1980s 08:07 – AI is in its infancy — and that's when the biggest crashes happen 09:00 – India is the next China 10:28 – 2008 was 1930 all over again — and $31 trillion papered over it 13:08 – Anatomy of the everything bubble 14:30 – The average Ohio house down 60%. High-end down 70–80% 16:47 – The millennials who got priced out are the ones who win 19:12 – How far stocks fall: 90% on the S&P, 96% on the Nasdaq 22:20 – The first wave: 42% in 2.6 months 24:38 – "I was the most bullish forecaster on earth" 25:40 – Positioning for the first crash: SQQQ and sizing 27:06 – Why TLT and the 30-year Treasury are the trade after that 31:08 – The case against gold: it joined the everything bubble 34:21 – Which house should you sell? Not the one you think 39:15 – China's 22% empty real estate and the coming reckoning 45:00 – Nobody in a bubble sees the bubble because they're high on it 48:55 – Watch October | |||
| #402 Chris Whalen: Private Credit's First Big Unwind — and Why Insurance Is Next | 15 août 2026 | 00:32:12 | |
In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down the 777 Partners bankruptcy — a sprawling collapse touching insurance, reinsurance, soccer clubs, and airlines that he says is a preview of how private credit ultimately unwinds: slowly, messily, and with fraud along the way. He explains why the contagion risk to insurance matters most for ordinary people, since firms like Apollo, Brookfield, and Blue Owl use insurance balance sheets to fund private credit strategies, leaving annuity and life policyholders exposed. Chris also digs into United Wholesale Mortgage, arguing the real problem wasn't the Two Harbors hedge but years of cash extraction and overvalued servicing assets — and what Oaktree's $1.5 billion rescue means now that "the grim reaper of Wall Street" is in the building. On markets, he describes a manic tape where cycles no longer exist, questions whether AI valuations survive Chinese competitors offering the same functionality at a tenth of the cost, and wonders whether Kevin Warsh will finally let the market take a hit. He then makes the case that the cooler CPI print is masking a genuine inflation problem: diesel is up roughly 35% since February, key industrial chemicals and LNG capacity was destroyed in the Iran conflict, and those input costs are rippling into food, housing, construction, and packaging. Finally, Chris explains why he thinks the gold and silver bull markets remain fully intact, and what the Byzantine Empire taught him about what happens when gold runs short. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 777 Partners blog post: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira879 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro 1:37 - 777 Partners bankruptcy: what the demise of private credit looks like 3:56 - Does this accelerate the slow-motion train wreck? 5:45 - Contagion risk to insurance: annuities, life policies, and private credit balance sheets 7:36 - United Wholesale Mortgage, Mat Ishbia, and the Oaktree rescue 10:44 - Oaktree, the "grim reaper of Wall Street," and stress in mortgage lending 11:00 - DSCR loans and the rental-property workaround 12:13 - Monetary Metals: earn a yield on your gold 13:22 - Markets at records: "the numbers are too big" 15:20 - The Warsh Fed: will bailouts end? 16:05 - AI valuations, the price war, and Chinese competition 17:36 - Inflation beneath the surface: input costs are exploding 18:08 - Diesel up 35%, heating oil, chemicals, and the fall squeeze 20:02 - Food prices, farmers, and the Iran war fallout 22:39 - Spillover into housing, construction materials, and packaging 24:19 - Gold's run higher and Chinese buying 25:13 - Silver: a commercial trade, and the supply problem 26:44 - The WGA precious metals top 25 list 28:14 - Lessons from Byzantine monetary history 29:38 - Parting thoughts: private credit surprises, the Middle East, and the midterms 30:39 - Closing The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. | |||
| #401 Jim Rickards: The Iran War, "Trump's on the Losing Side of That Bet," The Case for $10,000 Gold, and the Japanese Yen Carry Trade Unwind — The Most Important Financial Story in the World | 13 août 2026 | 01:00:50 | |
Jim Rickards returns for a wide-ranging macro conversation on a world where geopolitics and economics have fully merged. He lays out the US–Iran standoff as a global game of chicken — Trump betting Iran's economy breaks first, Iran betting the midterm elections break Trump first — and explains why he thinks Tehran holds the stronger hand, why regime change was always a fantasy, and how a handful of drones a week is enough to keep the Strait of Hormuz bottled up. From there he turns to gold: how he used Jim Rogers' 50% drawdown rule and fractal scale invariance to call the bottom, why central bank buying puts a floor under the market, why gold works as a deflation hedge as well as an inflation hedge, and why he stands by his $10,000 target. He also dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, explains what Kevin Warsh's less transparent, market-following Fed means for investors conditioned to expect a rescue, and walks through the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade — which he calls the most important story in the world right now, and the one most likely to make 2027 messy. The episode closes on the darker side of AI: increasingly sophisticated voice-cloned scams aimed at older Americans. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links: http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/RealJimRickards Visit CallFort.io or download the app https://apps.apple.com/us/app/callfort/id6752949954 Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro: welcome back, Jim Rickards 1:04 – Geopolitics and economics have merged: chokepoints and economic warfare 3:30 – The US–Iran game of chicken: what each side is betting 6:13 – Regime change isn't happening — and why killing leaders backfired 10:42 – Lost credibility and the Iran–Oman deal the US wasn't part of 14:41 – The midterm clock, and how Iran keeps the Strait closed 17:23 – [Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals] 19:04 – Gold's drawdown: the Jim Rogers 50% rule and fractal math 24:04 – Why gold goes much higher — and the $10,000 call 25:03 – What's driving gold: central banks, deflation, flat mine supply 31:15 – Why the "debasement trade" narrative is wrong 33:00 – Inside the primary dealer world and the old Fed 35:00 – Kevin Warsh, killing the dot plot, and a whole new Fed 38:16 – [Sponsor: Monetary Metals] 40:03 – The Fed's only real job — and what Friedman got wrong 44:13 – The yen carry trade: the most important story in the world 48:55 – The petrodollar, Japan's Treasuries, and the Bessent bailout 51:43 – Why currency defenses always fail, and why 2027 gets messy 52:50 – AI, sophisticated scams, and the Callfort app 59:10 – What's next: climbing Kilimanjaro | |||
| #400 Michael Howell: The Liquidity Cycle Has Turned, Low Quality Returns for Stocks, The Real Driver Behind Gold | 11 août 2026 | 00:42:52 | |
Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to explain why the global liquidity cycle peaked in late Q3/early Q4 of last year — and what that means for the rest of 2026. His core argument: money is fungible but finite, and a booming real economy is now pulling liquidity out of financial assets, which compresses P/E multiples even as earnings look fine. That puts us in what he calls the speculation phase: rising bond yields, strong commodities, pressured crypto, and low-quality equity returns where index gains mask widespread underperformance. He also pushes back hard on the popular "debasement trade" explanation for gold, arguing the real driver is the People's Bank of China injecting liquidity to devalue the yuan internally while holding it steady externally — with Chinese retail locked out of crypto and the Shanghai Gold Exchange now setting the marginal price. On the bond side, he lays out how the Treasury is quietly monetizing through front-end issuance and buybacks — private-sector QE under Treasury direction — a strategy that works until it doesn't, with Japan's move from 50bps to nearly 3% as the cautionary tale. His bottom line: range-bound Wall Street, no bonds, gold and silver on weakness, and watch commodities for the first sign the boom is ending. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 0:00 The call: range-bound market, own gold 0:20 Welcome back, Michael Howell 1:19 Two pools of money: markets vs. the real economy 2:30 The liquidity cycle has peaked 3:20 What this phase looks like 4:48 Why a booming economy is bad for stocks 5:22 The P/E multiple is where liquidity shows up 6:34 Late cycle, explained 7:38 Augusta Precious Metals 9:29 Global liquidity vs. the world business cycle 10:45 Atlanta Fed nowcast near 6% 11:54 The K-shaped economy is global 12:45 Monetary inflation vs. Main Street inflation 14:45 Speculation now, turbulence next 15:15 The cycle map 17:55 Monetary Metals 19:49 Gold: it isn't the debasement trade 20:30 It's China: PBOC liquidity 22:15 Why gold and not crypto 23:14 Inside the PBOC balance sheet 25:00 Yuan gold and the 27,000 line 26:15 Bond yields track nominal GDP 27:40 NGDP at 7-8% vs. a 4.7% ten-year 28:18 Treasury QE: funding at the front end 30:20 Who's actually buying the debt? 30:51 The beach ball under water 32:35 The two-year note leads the Fed 34:30 The 2022 analogue 36:00 Why MOVE matters more than VIX 37:08 Treasury buybacks and the volatility cap 38:30 Margin debt and the 2026 range call 39:31 Parting thoughts: commodities as the warning 40:30 Gold, silver, and the ratio to watch | |||
| #399 Chris Whalen: United Wholesale Mortgage's Disaster, Financial Repression Returns, Gold Breaks Out | 08 août 2026 | 00:36:51 | |
In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down the week across mortgages, rates, and precious metals. He opens with United Wholesale Mortgage, explaining why he believes Matt Ishbia should resign after the company hedged the balance sheet of an acquisition target it didn't own and never won — a misstep that produced a six hundred million dollar loss and forced a rescue from Oak Tree on onerous terms that leave common shareholders at the back of the line. Chris contrasts that with Rocket's standout quarter and lays out his broader housing view: investment banks hold this market together until the IPO fees are booked, then step back, setting up a potential correction next year and a general decline in home prices of ten to twenty percent by 2028. From there the conversation turns to the return of financial repression — short-end yields pushed down while the long end reacts to deficits and inflation — and why, with debt approaching forty trillion, he considers Fed independence a fiction and the Treasury the dog to the Fed's tail. Chris also unpacks the Bank of Japan's thirty-day repo with the Fed, why it lit a fire under gold and silver, and David Kotok's idea of using euro-denominated US credit default swaps to benchmark gold. He closes on taxing wealth over income, the erosion of fiscal credibility, and his gold book research into thirteen hundred years of Byzantine monetary stability. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 — Intro 1:08 — Why Matt Ishbia should resign from UWM 2:30 — The Oak Tree rescue and what it means for shareholders 3:31 — Mortgage earnings: PennyMac, loanDepot, Rocket 4:23 — Is UWM going to be sold? 5:43 — Health of the broader mortgage industry 6:50 — Seven percent rates and where volume is coming from 7:30 — What the Fed does next, and the long end 8:20 — "Misery on the eights" — is the timeline accelerating? 9:20 — Housing correction: 10–20% by 2028 10:40 — The return of financial repression 12:00 — Why the Treasury benefits, and the shift to T-bills 13:06 — "The Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail" 13:40 — The dollar, foreign central banks, and gold reserves 14:20 — The Bank of Japan repo transaction explained 15:14 — What Warsh does if the FOMC wants a hike 16:30 — Inflation, diesel exports, and the energy squeeze 17:34 — David Kotok on benchmarking gold with credit default swaps 18:40 — Why fiscal fear flows into gold 19:30 — How far away is a US debt restructuring? 21:04 — Taxing wealth instead of income 22:42 — What cutting the deficit would actually do to rates 25:15 — Back to the BOJ: why it forced gold and silver higher 28:00 — What if Japan doesn't take the bonds back? 28:48 — Foreign central banks are selling Treasuries 29:47 — Does the US care about gold the way the rest of the world does? 32:10 — Bessent and the K-shaped economy 33:12 — Housekeeping: viewer question episode 33:50 — Parting thoughts The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. | |||
| #398 Marc Faber: The First Phase Of The Greatest Investment Mania Is Being Pierced | 06 août 2026 | 00:50:01 | |
Dr. Marc Faber editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, returns to argue that we are witnessing the first phase of the piercing of the greatest global investment mania. He explains why central bank money printing has inflated asset prices far beyond economic reality — enriching asset holders while ordinary people face a cost of living he estimates is rising 7–12% a year, not the official 3–4%. Faber walks through the cracks already visible: collapsing commercial property values, falling home prices, meme stocks and SPACs that never recovered their 2021 peaks, a narrowing market advance, the semiconductor unwind, and the speculative blow-off in Korea. He argues the 10-year Treasury should yield at least 6.5%, that the Fed should have been hiking rather than cutting, and that the US may already be in recession. With interest costs on federal debt above $1 trillion a year, he says more money printing isn't a choice but an inevitability — and warns that bubbles typically end with the revelation of a massive fraud. His advice is blunt: this is not a market for making money, it's a market for losing the least. He makes the case for broad diversification across cash, bonds, precious metals, and real estate, explains why he refuses to own index funds, shares why Thailand is his largest position, and closes on gold, hyperinflation, and why he thinks the price should already be far higher.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.comTimestamps:00:00 Intro: Marc Faber returns | |||
| #397 Mickey Maini: What Physics Knows That Markets Don't — And Why the Next 2 Years Are the Toughest | 04 août 2026 | 00:56:12 | |
Mickey Maini, founder of Solstice Laboratory, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, he lays out the thesis behind his new book The Entropy Trap: financial systems, like all systems, require energy to hold their shape, and as complexity rises and trust decays, the energy needed to maintain order climbs until the system transitions into something new. He argues we're between two systems now, sitting in the third of five stages — control — one policy misstep away from fracture. Maini explains why the Fed's real job this decade is defending collateral rather than setting rates, why three stresses (geopolitics, debt, and innovation) are compounding rather than merely adding for the first time in decades, and why the honest tell on AI is the credit market rather than the equity market. Along the way: what central bank gold buying is actually signaling, his scenario range for gold, the US-China choke point war that will determine who writes the next system, and why the trader who made $100 million in 1929 lost it all while the one who ignored prices did fine. Maini began in investment banking, then scaled an emerging-markets conglomerate from $100 million to over $5 billion as its CEO, then taught at one of Asia's leading public policy schools. Today he runs his family office and Solstice Laboratory (solsticelabs.com) - an independent research lab in Dubai that applies physics to markets and geopolitics, studying the moments when systems stop moving in cycles and change state. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: The Entropy Trap book: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1 Substack: https://solsticelaboratory.substack.com/ Website: https://solsticelabs.com/
0:00 — Intro and welcome: Mickey Maini, The Entropy Trap | |||
| #396 Chris Whalen: Warsh Has A Credibility Problem, Gold's Real Signal, & Your Annuity May Not Be Safe | 01 août 2026 | 00:39:27 | |
In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to argue that Kevin Warsh has a credibility problem: he's holding rates, avoiding confrontation with a divided board, and saying almost nothing, while the bond market does the tightening for him with the ten-year near 4.7% and mortgages headed toward seven-plus. Whalen's prescription is blunt — take back last year's cuts with two quarter-point hikes, consider a surprise August move, raise margin requirements, and keep shrinking the balance sheet, because Treasury is the dog and the Fed is barely the tail. From there the conversation ranges across a coming diesel and fertilizer shortage nobody in Washington will discuss, gold's role as real money in Asia versus a paper price in the West, and Whalen's own portfolio, from Annaly and Rhythm Capital to Flagstar and roughly a fifth in precious metals. The back half turns spicy with Tom Gober's new guest post on life insurers: private-credit-controlled annuity writers reinsuring liabilities offshore without posting enough assets behind them, hidden by state secrecy laws and rubber-stamped by ratings agencies that were never working for you. Plus PennyMac's bad quarter, George Gleason's construction-lending model at Bank OZK, and mailbag questions on SpaceX and mining stocks. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Thomas Gober guest article: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira874 Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 — Intro: no, the show isn't being cancelled 1:52 — Warsh's first pressers: three dissenters and a chairman who says nothing 5:42 — How Warsh gets credibility: take back last year's cuts 7:20 — Trump stays quiet on Warsh — plus a coming diesel and fertilizer squeeze 8:46 — Is the economy finally slowing? The fading power of deficits 10:22 — "Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail" 11:30 — The case for a surprise August hike and less forward guidance 12:56 — Gold, Keith Weiner, and the permanent backwardation thesis 15:38 — Gold as bank capital: pledging metal as repo collateral 16:37 — Whalen's book: Annaly, Rhythm, miners, energy, Schwab, Flagstar 19:41 — PennyMac's ugly quarter and why it drags the whole mortgage group down 21:23 — Bank OZK vs. the big banks on commercial real estate 23:19 — Tom Gober's guest post: is your life insurer actually solvent? 27:00 — Offshore reinsurance, secrecy states, and why ratings won't save you 29:36 — Mailbag: SpaceX below IPO price — buy more or bail? 31:53 — Mailbag: miners vs. metal, GLD/GDX vs. SLV/SIL 35:13 — What's next: mortgage earnings, the bank 50, and the gold book The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. | |||
| Danielle DiMartino Booth: Nobody's Happy, Cracks Are Showing, & the Bond Market Already Tightened | 30 juil. 2026 | 00:35:05 | |
Danielle DiMartino Booth breaks down a contentious FOMC meeting where new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady over three dissents, arguing the "good family fight" reflects a real fault line between district bank presidents and governors rather than idle disagreement. She reads Warsh as deliberately dismantling forward guidance, pushing the Fed to stop acting as the market's referee, and leaning toward a trimmed-mean view of inflation while insisting the 2% target stays non-negotiable. Beneath the policy debate, she sees an economy propped up almost entirely by the top 10% and the AI investment boom, with mounting cracks underneath: widening CCC high-yield spreads, bankruptcies at 15-year highs, record apartment concessions on luxury units, softening wage growth, and falling freight demand across trucking and ocean shipping. Her core worry is that if the top of the K "stutters" — as the AI bubble deflates or the wealth effect fades — the pain trickles down onto an already-struggling bottom half, and she's positioning around gold as credit conditions tighten. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 00:00 — Intro and welcome 00:35 — Immediate take on the FOMC hold with three dissenters; Warsh's "robust discussion" and four questions 02:42 — Is it a deeper split? Waller standing with Warsh; district bank presidents vs. governors 03:48 — Why strategists are throwing a "hissy fit"; abandoning forward guidance, Fed stepping back as referee 05:01 — The 2% inflation target described as non-negotiable 05:47 — Did it make sense to hold? The five shocks, "team transitory" slip, trimmed-mean inflation 07:13 — Is the door open for a September hike? 08:53 — Kalshi prediction-market odds for September (53% hike / 45% hold) 09:57 — Market reaction; NASDAQ's late-day fall off a cliff 11:52 — Why the FOMC minutes may be the real story 12:20 — Economy assessment via alternative data: waste-management volumes, GDP, Indeed wages 14:38 — How inflation should really be measured; P&G, purchasing power, World Cup hiring 16:09 — Cracks emerging: CCC high-yield spreads, 15-year-high bankruptcies, apartment concessions 18:52 — The K-shaped economy, the wealth effect, and international travel as a bellwether 21:01 — Does she agree with the hold? Her public call for a hike 21:52 — The bond market has done the tightening for the Fed 22:11 — The move in gold vs. Bitcoin, and what it signals about credit 23:07 — More breakage coming in credit; distressed debt exchanges as "polite" Chapter 11 24:29 — What investors are missing: truck stops, ocean freight, inventory restocking, Austria/BMW 29:32 — What she's watching into September; tax refunds, World Cup aftermath, the top of the K 32:25 — Parting thoughts | |||
| #394 Chris Whalen: 5% Yields, 7% Mortgages, Double-Digit Inflation & the End of the Party | 25 juil. 2026 | 00:38:45 | |
In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down why the stablecoin boom may be running out of road — giving the Clarity Act less than 50/50 odds and arguing it could strip the yield out of coins, force issuers offshore, and turn the survivors into banks. He makes the case that stablecoins are little more than "prepaid gift cards," lays out why he's bullish on gold and silver as central banks and China chase physical metal, and warns that real inflation — measured by commodity inputs like energy and sulfur (up 150% since the Iran war), not the CPI — is closing in on double digits. Whalen also sees the 10-year Treasury pushing past 5% and mortgages settling into a "higher for longer" 6.5–7%, flags the mortgage sector as the earnings story to watch, takes aim at Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy, points to safer places to find yield, and keeps circling back to one unsettling parallel: today looks a lot like the 1920s, right before the party ended. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro 0:45 – The Clarity Act: will it kill stablecoins? 3:34 – Do stablecoins have any real use case? 5:17 – Why we may need fewer banks — and more insurers 8:22 – Do stablecoins actually create Treasury demand? 10:16 – Chris's next book: gold 12:20 – Gold's pullback and the bull case for silver 16:37 – Goldman's $4,900 target & John Paulson on gold 17:53 – The BLS quietly redefines inflation 19:40 – A 2% target, a 6% deficit, and 5% yields 22:07 – Why mortgage earnings are the story to watch 24:29 – Affordability, home prices & the blue-state squeeze 26:42 – Why it all rhymes with the 1920s 28:44 – Viewer Q&A: the real double-digit inflation 32:12 – MSTR yields, Saylor & where to find safe income 36:28 – Closing thoughts: the mortgage shakeout ahead The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. | |||
| #393 Chris Irons: Something Will Break The Market, Sharp Deleveraging Ahead, Why The Fed Will Fold, & Gold Could Hit $7,500 | 23 juil. 2026 | 00:48:37 | |
Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular QTR Fringe Finance substack, returns to the show with a sobering assessment of markets he says are at or above the highest valuations in history — propped up by a passive bid, options-driven flows, and ten mega-cap names carrying everyone's retirement. Irons explains why he's stepped back from active trading permanently, why he believes the SpaceX IPO's $2 trillion ask may have marked a top in AI euphoria, and why Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting promises will crumble the moment equities fall 10-20%. He shares where he's finding opportunity — including his early psychedelics call that's crushed the market this year, emerging markets, and beaten-down gold miners — and warns that the most underappreciated risks lie in stablecoins, crypto leverage, private credit, and regional banks. His bottom line: a sharp deleveraging is coming, the Fed will fold at the first sign of discomfort, and gold could hit $7,500 or higher after the next round of money printing. This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: X: https://x.com/QTRResearch Substack: Viewers/listeners of The Julia La Roche Show get 80% off an annual subscription of QTR's Fringe Finance https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=7c8478df&utm_content=207295644 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome back 00:57 Big picture: Fed stuck between a rock and a hard place 03:18 Out-of-control fiscal policy and the "sovereign Ponzi scheme" 05:41 Private equity repackaged in insurance wrappers (2008 echoes) 06:30 SpaceX IPO as a possible top signal for the AI bubble 07:38 Why Chris stepped back from active trading permanently 12:01 "Being right vs. making money" 13:15 Life after trading: clarity, priorities, and more content 14:45 Diagnosing the market: passive bid, gamma squeezes, and index distortion 16:35 The case for equal-weight (RSP) over cap-weighted S&P 18:30 Michael Burry's AI build-out vs. dot-com comparison 21:10 Opportunities: the psychedelics thesis and how it played out 27:00 Gold and miners: buying the pullback, $7,500 gold scenario 30:45 What to expect from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed 34:36 Should inflation even be the Fed's mandate? 36:04 Arbitrary prices and permanently distorted markets 37:45 The vocal track analogy: too many plugins on the economy 40:10 Why active trading is impossible in a headline-driven market 41:27 Most underappreciated risks: stablecoins, Tether, and crypto contagion 43:30 Corporate fraud, private credit, regional banks, and subprime auto 46:01 Closing thoughts and subscriber discount | |||
| #392 George Noble: The Liquidity Cycle Has Turned — Markets Face a "Wile E. Coyote Moment" | 21 juil. 2026 | 00:47:35 | |
George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, returns with a stark warning: the global liquidity cycle has turned. Citing "liquidity king" Michael Howell, Noble argues that surging deficits, sticky inflation, and a worldwide capex boom have stripped away the policy safety net markets have relied on since 2009 — setting up a potential "Wile E. Coyote moment" where stocks take a dirt nap and the Fed can't respond. He says the Fed isn't in control, Mr. Market is, and bond yields at 4.5% are "much too low" — fair value may be closer to 5.5-6%. Noble calls the AI trade "far worse than dot-com," with malinvestment 17 times larger, hyperscalers destroying free cash flow, and semis a "huge short." His playbook: ditch the 60/40 portfolio, own the reflation trade — gold, silver, energy, copper, uranium — and he names specific stocks including SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, and CRGY. Plus: why the yen carry trade could break, the TLT-in-Turkish-lira lesson on real money, and his most emphatic call of all — "run, don't walk" from SpaceX before the float unlock. And details on his Best Stock Ideas Summit, July 22nd. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/ X: https://x.com/gnoble79 Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble Timestamps: 0:00 — Intro; George's Best Stock Ideas Summit July 22nd 1:10 — The global liquidity cycle has turned: Michael Howell's warning 4:31 — "Risk assets are extremely challenged" — rotation and dispersion is the real story 5:30 — Energy vs. Mag 7: free cash flow tells the story 7:03 — Tech is really 50% of the market — why the indices will struggle 8:20 — "Warsh is not in control, Mr. Market is" 10:04 — Why Warsh will blink: the market will force the Fed's hand 10:28 — America's Liz Truss moment? Lending to "the Bank of Julia" at 4.5% 13:34 — Policy options are gone: why this time the Fed can't rescue markets 14:55 — The "Wile E. Coyote moment" ahead for markets 16:17 — Japan: 30-year high JGB yields, the yen, and the carry trade risk 19:01 — Path vs. prediction: why bond yields are "much too low" — 5.5-6% fair value 23:27 — Why the economy shrugs off higher rates (and why that's bearish) 25:17 — All fiat is devaluing against real assets: the dollar fell 60% against gold 27:17 — Buying the gold correction; why miners could double or triple 28:05 — The TLT in Turkish lira: a lesson in your unit of account 30:10 — Why 60/40 is the worst allocation right now — "certificates of confiscation" 34:07 — "Far worse than dot-com": the margin bubble and 17x the malinvestment 36:29 — The internet grew 25 million percent — and the stocks still crashed 90% 39:21 — George names names: SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, CRGY, uranium, junior copper 40:42 — Parting thoughts: the golden age of stock picking 41:45 — SpaceX: "run, don't walk" — why the float unlock means a crash is coming 43:00 — The Best Stock Ideas Summit: 15 investors, one pick each, July 22nd | |||
| #391 Chris Whalen: $4 Trillion Private Credit Risk, Double-Digit Inflation & Housing's 2005 Warning | 18 juil. 2026 | 00:33:49 | |
In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a blockbuster week of bank earnings — and why the record numbers mask a growing problem. Wall Street trading and investment banking revenues are exploding, but banks aren't making money on money, as asset yields fall for a sixth straight quarter and private credit giants like Apollo poach deals. Whalen flags roughly $4 trillion in bank exposure to non-depository financial institutions, warns "there are no regulators in Washington" watching the risks, and says the housing market's business-purpose loan boom "feels like 2005." He sticks with his double-digit inflation call, arguing diesel — not oil — is the real story, and predicts fuel shortages, maybe even rationing, before the midterm elections. Plus: Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed debut, gold's selloff as a buying opportunity, viewer questions on Annaly, and a World Cup prediction. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira869 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 — Intro and welcome 00:55 Bank earnings and oil prices soar as Middle East war reignites 2:36 — Bank earnings disconnect: Wall Street booms, lending shrinks 3:55 — Why big deals keep going to private credit (Apollo, Blackstone) 5:59 — The hidden risk: banks lending directly to private credit funds 9:06 — The $4 trillion exposure — "no regulators watching the hen house" 10:07 — The "Everything Bubble": rising rates, falling yields, record home prices 12:06 — Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed: "inflation is a choice" 14:40 — Rate hike odds cool — will the Fed wait until after midterms? 15:42 — Energy shortages building: why the Trump administration stays quiet 16:45 — Double-digit inflation call stands; possible rationing by Election Day 17:53 — Iran destroyed Gulf refining capacity — years to rebuild 21:52 — Housing: sales fall 2.4%, median price hits record high 23:14 — "It feels like 2005" — DSCR and non-QM loans flash warning signs 27:19 — Gold selloff: why Chris is buying more (especially silver) 29:37 — Viewer Q: How rates affect Annaly (NLY) — it's all about the spread 31:03 — Viewer Q: Warsh's 2% target vs. $80 oil — a double whammy? 32:27 — Chris's World Cup prediction: Argentina The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. | |||
| #390 Ted Oakley: "It's Not a Normal Market" — A Generational Bear Could Cut Stocks 40% | 16 juil. 2026 | 00:36:48 | |
In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss his latest letter, "Stick to Your Principles," and why he believes today's market is anything but normal. He warns that 10-12 companies now make up half the S&P 500, speculation via leveraged ETFs is in the billions, and stocks are roughly three standard deviations above the norm — a setup he says could eventually correct 40% or more in a generational bear market. Oakley explains why investor complacency is the biggest mistake he sees, with three-quarters of all financial assets in stocks and Americans over 70 owning a third of the market. He shares where he's finding value now — energy names like Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, and Antero, plus beaten-down gold miners like Agnico Eagle — and recounts the hard lesson he learned chasing hot oil stocks in the late 1970s. His biggest worry: unsustainable government debt. His surprising source of optimism: a severe downturn, which he views as the buying opportunity of a generation. Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 0:00 – Introduction: Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors returns 0:53 – Semiconductors dominating the market; 10-12 companies are half the S&P 2:10 – "The Gambler": leveraged ETFs and speculation in the billions 3:16 – How leveraged ETFs amplify volatility 4:25 – A market high that "sticks for a while" coming in the next 6-12 months 5:41 – Risk/reward has flipped: 6-8% upside vs. 25% downside 6:38 – A generational bear market could mean a 40-45% correction 8:04 – Investor complacency: 75% of financial assets in stocks, an all-time high 9:26 – Oxbow's positioning: ~60/40 stocks and short-term treasuries 11:04 – The bond market: a possible trade in long-dated treasuries, but not worth the risk 12:19 – Cooler CPI and why inflation could fall further on oil prices 13:36 – What oil industry insiders are saying about drilling and cash flows 14:54 – Everyone's bearish on oil — Ted sees $100+ within 18 months 16:26 – What Ted's buying: Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, Antero, NESR 19:22 – Gold miners cheap after 35-40% correction; Agnico Eagle is Oxbow's top holding 21:09 – Momentum players washing out of gold sets up the next move 22:45 – "Stick to Your Principles": valuation discipline and why pros abandon it 24:16 – Ted's own lesson: getting burned in the late-'70s oil boom 26:00 – The Intel example: sold in '99, took 26 years to hit a new high 27:50 – Why hot IPOs disappoint (SpaceX down 30% from IPO) 29:27 – The boomer risk: over-70s own a third of all stocks 32:04 – Biggest risk: unsustainable government debt and interest costs 33:33 – Why Ted is optimistic about a downturn: liquidity to buy the sale | |||
| #389 Larry McDonald: A Market 'Rotten to the Core,' Gold to $6,500, and The Coming Credit Crisis | 14 juil. 2026 | 00:46:35 | |
New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to lay out why he believes markets are entering a major regime shift. He points to a historic rotation out of mega-cap tech — roughly $2 trillion has already exited the "Mag 7" since October — as sophisticated institutional investors grow wary of unsustainable AI/data-center capital expenditures and the off-balance-sheet financing propping them up. McDonald warns of a coming credit crisis driven by private credit weakness and commercial real estate stress, while arguing that Washington's stablecoin push and "financial repression" tactics are being used to force more Treasury buying and inflate away the $39 trillion national debt. With sticky inflation, midterm election risk, and a volatile August-September seasonal pattern ahead, he's positioning in hard assets — gold (targeting $6,500), silver, natural gas, and select energy names — as the trade of the next several years, while sounding the alarm on an S&P 500 he calls dangerously concentrated in tech. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ 00:00 – Intro & welcome back 01:11 – Big picture macro setup: bullish-to-bearish rotation among top institutional investors 02:19 – "Under the seat cushions" — what's really going on beneath bank earnings 04:55 – The AI/data center malinvestment cycle & Mag 7 outflows 05:57 – Economic outlook, Druckenmiller's rule, Trump/Middle East risk 08:10 – Recession odds & consumer divergence (Home Depot, Pepsi, Costco) 10:34 – Why the midterms matter for investors 12:53 – Passive investing, S&P concentration, fiduciary "reconstruction" 15:07 – Energy sector picks (Occidental, Schlumberger, XLE) 16:23 – Treasury market "control" — stablecoins, Clarity Act 19:00 – "Bessent's bag of tricks" & debt dynamics 20:33 – Fiscal dominance explained (Lehman vs. post-2020 response) 23:02 – 3% inflation target implications, growth-to-value rotation 25:08 – Hard asset thesis: Bitcoin, natural gas, precious metals 29:21 – Gold outlook & the "hot money flush" 33:14 – Gold price target: $6,500 33:46 – Biggest risks: data center debt, private credit, commercial real estate 37:28 – Kevin Warsh's Fed approach & yield curve control prediction 40:30 – What to watch in H2: seasonality, volatility, August/September risk 42:52 – Closing | |||
| #388 Chris Whalen: One Rate Hike Coming, Iran Peace Unlikely, Double-Digit Inflation Inevitable | 11 juil. 2026 | 00:33:34 | |
In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris expects the Federal Reserve will deliver one rate hike before Labor Day despite Warsh's preference to delay—the White House has greenlit it to maintain Warsh's credibility as chairman, and this one hike will likely lead to more because incremental Fed policy changes don't stop at one when fighting inflation. The Iran ceasefire has shattered and won't be fixed: Iran has zero incentive to reach peace with the U.S., wants to tax Strait of Hormuz traffic, and will force Gulf states to build pipelines and avoid the strait entirely—oil refineries won't be rebuilt while shooting continues, causing permanent structural supply damage. U.S. oil stocks are at their lowest level in 20 years, diesel is up 30% this year and ripples through every part of the economy, and California is facing potential rationing after it runs down reserves and stops getting refined products from Asia. Whalen stands firm on his double-digit inflation call despite prediction markets showing lower odds, arguing the real economy—not market probabilities—determines consumer and producer behavior, and rising consumer inflation expectations (3.7% one-year) are changing psychology and forcing real estate hedging. Bank earnings next week will reveal whether credit costs continue rising as spreads widen between Treasuries and corporate bonds, signaling medium-term economic slowdown ahead as speculative companies lose financing access. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira866 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen The Entropy Trap: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1 Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Warsh slow walking rate cut, White House greenlit one hike 1:32 FOMC divided, one rate hike likely before Labor Day 2:35 White House supporting Warsh to maintain credibility 3:39 One hike doesn't typically happen alone 4:42 Warsh reducing Fed presence, pulling back on forward guidance 5:10 Fed's 2% target won't change consumer behavior on inflation 7:29 Oil stocks at 20-year low, diesel shortage critical 11:40 Iran ceasefire fragile, no incentive for lasting peace 13:41 U.S. must build pipelines, avoid Strait of Hormuz 14:08 Physical oil stocks depleted, refined products in short supply 15:26 Diesel is political issue - impacts economy, employment 16:06 California facing potential rationing without supplies 16:36 Diesel up 30% this year, ripples through entire economy 17:32 Double-digit inflation thesis still stands despite market skeptics 18:46 Prediction markets vs real economy - spreads tell story 20:06 Consumer inflation expectations hit 3.7% one-year (3-year high) 20:27 Psychology of inflation changes spending and investment behavior 21:34 Real estate traditional hedge, prices skyrocketing 22:20 Spreads widening, economy slowing medium-term 23:35 Earnings season next week - credit costs key indicator 24:19 Midterms - Democrats take House, Trump faces impeachment 25:32 Politics won't change, nothing gets done 26:41 Pfizer building conversion collapsing, structural problems 29:17 Bunker Hill Mining penny stock opportunity, silver revival 31:28 Banks earnings - watch credit costs, mortgage issuers follow | |||
| #387 Danielle DiMartino Booth: No Rate Hike Coming, Labor Force Participation Collapsing, Stock Market Too Big To Fail | 09 juil. 2026 | 00:38:02 | |
Danielle DiMartino Booth praises the FOMC minutes as "clean" under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh—no manipulation of data like Janet Yellen did in 2013—and notes Warsh has successfully convened consensus around "less is more" Fed communications with an unusually quiet media environment. The real bombshell is the July jobs data: the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% only because 720,000 Americans gave up looking for work in a single month, representing a 50-year low in labor force participation since 1976, while 49% of adults under 30 now live with their parents as affordability collapses and job insecurity rises. Danielle warns the official narrative of economic strength masks a deteriorating real economy: revolving credit declined (a sign lenders are tightening), consumer confidence shows jobs are hard to get, and vacation spending has crashed to Great Recession levels—yet mainstream media remains fixated on an inflation narrative unsupported by broad data. The biggest systemic risk is the "too big to fail" stock market: 51% of global assets now sit outside the regulated banking system, asset managers hold assets larger than major banks, and the government can't allow equity market collapse when 401(k)s are the only retirement plans left, implying inevitable Fed monetization and the "end of capitalism." Her source of hope: summer interns aged 18-28 who are hungry, hardworking, and reject the "too big to fail" mentality—representing a generation determined to work their way out rather than accept billionaire UBI schemes designed to maintain inequality. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth 00:40 FOMC minutes from June - Clean, Warsh didn't manipulate data 1:30 Warsh convened consensus, less is more communications working 2:57 Forward guidance removal, Fed less visible, refreshingly quiet 3:20 Elizabeth Warren defends bloated 12 district banks, Waller calling it out 4:38 Warsh has convened consensus around leadership position 5:13 Warsh refuses forward guidance, hints at ending dot plot 6:23 Inflation cooling seen but Iran hostilities change calculus 6:59 No press conference if nothing to say - Hail Mary move 7:25 Mervyn King taking communications, five task forces with outsiders 8:49 Kalshi traders: 79% hold rates in July, 76% expect no cuts 2026 9:36 Labor force participation 50-year low since 1976 15:35 720,000 Americans gave up looking for work in one month 16:05 Unemployment fell to 4.2% but for wrong reasons 16:59 Full-time jobs destroyed, replaced by gig workers 17:36 Labor market called stable but disconnect with data 18:18 Jobs hard to get at highest level, Americans aware 19:30 Revolving credit down, unusual sign of lender tightening 20:20 49% of adults under 30 living with parents 21:12 Five of 20 K-Shiller metro areas below 2000 price levels 22:35 Young people disenfranchised, AI destroying college degree value 24:32 Stock market too big to fail - implies Fed buying equities 25:01 Inequality gap - bottom 10% stock holdings fell 3% to 1% 26:14 Top 0.1% holdings doubled, bottom K getting bigger 26:33 Worry about social fabric fraying with K-shaped economy 29:16 Billionaires pushing UBI while controlling AI benefits 30:14 Work ethic is what made America great 30:30 Writing piece on too big to fail for weekly flagship 32:08 51% of global assets outside regulated banking system 33:34 Summer interns give hope - bright, hungry, great work ethic 34:45 Young generation rejects too big to fail narrative
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| #386 Michael Every: Economic Statecraft Changed Everything, Old Playbook Is Dead, New Era Begins | 07 juil. 2026 | 00:50:41 | |
Michael Every, Global Strategist for Economics and Markets at Rabobank, presents a radical framework: everything is now about economic statecraft and geopolitics, not traditional monetary or fiscal policy, meaning central banks, interest rates, and economic structures are all subsets of national security objectives. Central bank models are broken because exogenous geopolitical supply shocks (Iran war, Ukraine, COVID) constantly disrupt equilibrium assumptions, and the old playbook of managing demand through one global interest rate no longer works in a fragmenting world with different sectors having different national security priorities. He warns the biggest risk is far more war ahead, specifically predicting Iran war will resume after the midterms because tolls, sanctions, uranium, and Lebanon remain unresolved—Iran is losing leverage as oil flows increase and the world moves on, so it will need to "rock the boat" to regain attention. Interest rates will trend higher due to massive fiscal pressures on defense spending, reshoring, supply chain security, and infrastructure investment, and differential interest rates will emerge where sectors critical to national security borrow cheaper than speculative sectors. He argues the private sector will be tasked with moonshot innovations (like AI and Manhattan Project-style programs) that governments can't afford alone, with government potentially taking stakes in critical companies like OpenAI and Intel. On the Strait of Hormuz, he dismisses markets pricing 45% chance of normalization before October 1 as too optimistic, noting ships run dark, ship-to-ship transfers hide traffic, and geopolitics will escalate after midterms—Hormuz will never fully normalize as countries build alternatives. America will retain primacy going forward but must completely reinvent itself economically and politically, with broader appeal to allies while accepting a world where other powers have their own sphere of influence, and whoever holds office will face the same underlying reality that American power projection equals American living standards. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/our-experts/011085368/michael-every Timestamps: 0:00 Everything now about geopolitics, not traditional economics 2:00 Michael's background - 30 years, 9 countries, cross-border analyst 5:20 Economic statecraft framework - national power is driving force 6:06 Policymakers getting it, but many still don't understand 8:16 Central bank models don't work, they never did 8:40 Exogenous supply shocks (Iran, Ukraine, COVID) keep breaking models 11:36 One interest rate doesn't work in fragmenting world 15:33 Central banks being cagey about structural changes 19:21 Geography matters - some countries will thrive, others fail 23:20 Rates going higher, not lower for longer 23:29 Massive fiscal pressures on defense, supply chains, infrastructure 26:25 Differential interest rates by sector based on national security priority 27:06 Biggest risk - far more war coming 28:19 Iran war after midterms, not resolved yet 31:59 Defense contractors won't make huge profits - government controls pricing 34:40 AI is about national security, not making money 35:31 Government may need private sector to fund moonshots they can't afford 36:19 Government taking stakes in strategic companies (OpenAI, Intel, Trump) 39:04 Strait of Hormuz assessment 42:59 Iran needs to rock the boat, leverage slipping away 44:19 Kalshi market too optimistic on Hormuz normalization 45:08 Hormuz won't ever fully normalize again 46:04 US still primary power but must reinvent itself 49:15 America can retain primacy but it will look different 50:09 Whoever's in office has to return to same arguments on American power | |||
| #385 Chris Whalen: Gold Headed Higher, Goldman $4,900 Target, Silver China Buying Spree | 04 juil. 2026 | 00:35:43 | |
Chris Whalen kicks off the July 4th episode of The Wrap by diving into private credit implosion with BDCs turning unprofitable, using the acronym POOP (Principal on Outstanding Principal) to illustrate how debt is being converted to equity because companies can't pay—essentially turning investors into equity holders in insolvent companies. The June jobs report shocked with only 57K payrolls added (far below expectations) while household employment actually fell by 500K, making the data contradictory and unreliable despite the overall labor market still showing relative steadiness in many markets. Housing shows sharp bifurcation: sales above $1 million hit a record high while overall volume is down, revealing that only luxury properties are moving as the broader market softens. Goldman Sachs projects gold could hit $4,900, and Whalen is holding silver as a hedge against dollar debasement and inflation, noting the Chinese are aggressively buying silver in both futures and spot markets. Trump has profited handsomely from his various crypto ventures while most investors in those same ventures have lost significant money—a familiar pattern from Trump's business history. With the US national debt now at $39.35 trillion on America's 250th birthday, Whalen warns the Democratic Party will split between socialists and Republicans, with policies like New York's rent freezing turning cities into slums while hurting mom-and-pop landlords. He recommends watching interest rates, the Fed under Kevin Warsh, and expects another uptick in gold and silver prices after recent selloffs, while cautioning on BDCs and private credit exposure as the distress signals mount. Thank you to today's episode sponsor, The Entropy Trap by Mickey Maini. Order your copy: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1
Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira864 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 00:00 — Intro and World Cup chat 1:09 Gold rebounds, AI stocks slump 1:38 Private credit - BDCs turning unprofitable 2:40 POOP acronym - Principal on Outstanding Principal, crap debt 4:07 POOP emoji Bloomberg article, Victor Hong invented term 5:54 AI stocks slumping, pressure on private credit portfolios 6:00 Market doesn't like it right now 11:23 June non-farm payrolls - 57K added, much worse than expected 11:44 May/June comparisons all over place, household employment down 500K 12:21 Can't take a lot out of these numbers 13:33 Labor market steady to extent we can rely on statistics 14:12 Housing costs up, Americans work harder to compensate 14:12 Goldman Sachs says gold could hit $4,900 15:31 Chinese aggressive buyers of silver, not changing view 16:06 Gold/silver hedge against dollar and inflation 17:40 US national debt at $39.35 trillion on country's birthday 18:12 Democratic Party gonna get torn in half 18:50 Rise of democratic socialist candidates 19:49 Rent freezing turning NYC into slum, mom and pop landlords hurt 20:17 How much money to live in NYC reasonably? Way more than poverty level 21:45 Trump crypto - Done well, investors lost a lot 23:32 Book - Entropy Trap by Mickey Maini 29:33 90% of mortgage market government insured, no systemic bailout needed 32:43 Silver good play medium to long term as hedge 34:13 Back half of year focused on interest rates 35:13 Watching Fed, Kevin Warsh, uptick in gold/silver coming | |||
| #384 Henrik Zeberg: While Markets Rally, a Recession Signal Just Quietly Triggered | 02 juil. 2026 | 00:51:20 | |
Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, returns for his quarterly update to argue that markets and the economy are telling two completely different stories. While equities keep melting up toward a likely blow-off top, his models show the "quiet hand" of the real economy — labor market deterioration, rising full-time job losses, record credit card delinquencies, and a struggling housing sector — already rolling over into what he calls a structural recession. He walks through his indicator framework, explains why he's not calling an imminent recession yet (two more liquidity and yield signals are needed), and lays out his "Zeberg Solomon Protocol" for when he'd fully rotate out of stocks into bonds. The conversation also covers his contrarian views on inflation (he thinks disinflation, not inflation, is coming), his skepticism on Bitcoin's long-term value despite expecting a short-term bounce, a near-term gold and dollar bounce followed by major dollar strength, and his boldest calls for a year from now — including a bursting AI bubble and Bitcoin below $20,000. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/ Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201 TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro: welcoming back Henrik Zeberg, head macroeconomist at SwissBlock 01:05 – Recap: the rally he called last quarter played out as predicted 01:36 – Stock market hasn't topped, but the real economy is quietly rolling over 03:50 – The split between the "financial economy" and the "real economy" 04:42 – His "structural recession call" — what it means and what's still missing 05:25 – Kalshi's recession odds (10.4%) vs. what Henrik's model is showing 06:25 – Why almost nobody sees a recession coming until it's already here 07:06 – Breaking down GDP: why the consumer (70%) is the real signal to watch 09:58 – Labor market red flags: falling participation, part-time vs. full-time jobs, long-term unemployment 12:33 – The "avalanche" analogy — how a slow buildup becomes a sudden crisis 14:59 – Credit card delinquencies now above 2009 recession levels 16:04 – Why housing is the earliest domino to fall 19:30 – Structural recession call, explained in full — and the two triggers he's waiting on 24:45 – The market's "loud hand": no top yet, more melt-up ahead 27:07 – Risk rotation theory — from mega-caps into small caps and speculative names 29:16 – Why he thinks the inflation narrative is wrong (savings rate argument) 32:57 – Stock vs. flow: the bathtub analogy for inflation vs. price levels 33:28 – What could still push this "blow-off top" rally further 34:32 – His own portfolio moves — how much cash vs. risk he's holding 36:57 – The "Zeberg Solomon Protocol" — his signal for exiting stocks entirely into bonds 39:37 – Bitcoin: why he's bullish on a short-term bounce but bearish long-term 42:23 – Gold outlook tied to a weakening (then re-strengthening) dollar 43:43 – Dollar forecast: DXY to 93–94 short term, then a run toward 120+ 44:56 – One-year-out contrarian calls: AI bubble bursting, Bitcoin under $20K, recession confirmed 47:06 – Where to find Henrik's work 47:25 – Parting thoughts: don't trust a crowded consensus trade | |||
| #383 Andrew Pancholi: Smart Money Is Quietly Exiting Stocks — What the Cycles Say Happens Next | 30 juin 2026 | 00:56:54 | |
Andrew Pancholi, founder and CEO of the Market Timing Report, joins the show for his debut to explain his framework of mathematical cycles—repeating patterns spanning 36, 60, 90, 100, 144, and 250 years that he uses to forecast turning points across markets, commodities, and geopolitics. He argues we're broadly tracking the 1920s bull market toward a potential 2029 peak, but warns he's turned more bearish near-term after Friday's data showed smart money leaving US equities, eyeing the third week of July as a major turning point. Pancholi shares striking targets—$183 oil if Middle East conflict escalates, $6,900 gold by March 2027, and a continued bearish view on Bitcoin—while tying current events to historical cycles, including the 36-year anniversary of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the US 250-year empire cycle. A commercial Boeing 777 pilot, he closes by connecting aviation's risk management and situational awareness to disciplined trading, emphasizing incremental gains over any "holy grail." Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: x.com/AndrewPancholilinkedin.com/in/andrewpancholi youtube.com/@markettimingreport instagram.com/andrew.pancholi facebook.com/markettimingcyclesanalysis Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro: who is Andrew Pancholi 01:21 – The big picture: mathematical cycles framework 02:00 – The 100-year cycle & path to 20290 2:30 – 90-year geopolitical cycle & polarization 05:29 – Equity markets: top or pullback? 08:21 – Smart money leaving US equities 10:43 – Kalshi prediction markets & 7,800 S&P target 13:15 – Third week of July turning point explained 14:12 – Charts: how the timing system works 20:17 – "You can't time the market" — the pushback 24:39 – The cycles explained: 30, 36, 45, 90, 144, 250 years 27:40 – War & revolution cycles, US civil strife 28:48 – The major war cycle nobody's talking about 31:41 – Oil outlook: $183 target 33:35 – Gold: bearish near-term, $6,900 target 35:12 – Bitcoin outlook 35:48 – The 250-year empire cycle & America's birthday 40:03 – Zero Hour book & cycles that failed 42:28 – From Boeing 777 pilot to cycles analyst 43:51 – COVID pandemic forecasted by the 100-year cycle 46:04 – Risk management lessons from flying 51:35 – Parting thoughts & where to find his work | |||
| #382 Chris Whalen: Private Credit's "Slow Motion Train Wreck" & The Warning Signs for a 2028 Housing Reset | 27 juin 2026 | 00:34:13 | |
Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche on this week's episode of "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" to break down what he calls a "slow motion train wreck" in private credit, where public and private funds alike are getting hammered with redemption requests just as the firms behind them sit on impaired assets like DSCR business-purpose loans. Whalen argues we're living through a replay of 2005 — high tide before the crack — and predicts a housing reset by 2027-2028 ("misery on the eights"), with home prices falling 10-20% and recent borrowers landing underwater. Along the way he covers double-digit inflation driven by energy supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz, why Chair Warsh can't slow-walk rate hikes, the volatility added by agentic AI trading and ETFs, his long-term bull case for gold and silver, the unwinding of Wall Street's crypto trade, the futility of Mamdani's NYC rent freeze, and viewer questions on inflation measurement and Annaly's common vs. preferred shares.
Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira861 Fred Ramberg interview: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira860 Signed copy of Seeing Around Corners: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/shop Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 00:00 — Intro 01:09 — Private credit: the "slow motion train wreck" and redemptions 02:24 — Rates higher-for-longer, double-digit inflation & the Strait of Hormuz 04:02 — The hidden cost of war and inflation as a tax 05:33 — Private credit shops buying insurers & DSCR loans 06:46 — "It's 2005 again" and the road to misery on the eights 07:46 — Signposts: institutional fraud in business-purpose loans 08:45 — What a DSCR loan is vs. a residential mortgage 11:55 — The private credit gates connection 12:32 — Predicting the 2028 housing reset & price declines 14:52 — How rising prices have masked defaults 15:27 — A 10-20% home price reset explained 15:46 — Which markets crack first (Florida, Miami, blue-state Northeast) 17:10 — Mom-and-pop investors and fix-and-flips 17:49 — Advice for homebuyers: stay below the conforming limit 18:42 — AI & semiconductor stock volatility 19:15 — Agentic trading bots and market manipulation 20:35 — Precious metals: gold below 4,000, silver near 57 22:37 — PCE data, sticky inflation & the gold-silver case 23:13 — Crypto falling apart, MicroStrategy & BlackRock selling 24:33 — CME suing over perps (perpetual futures) 25:34 — The NYC rent freeze / Mamdani hot take 26:49 — Viewer mail: changing the definition of inflation 28:20 — Viewer mail: is the debasement trade over? 29:08 — Viewer mail: Annaly common vs. preferred 31:03 — What's ahead next week (plus World Cup talk) 32:46 — Wrap-up | |||
| #381 Peter Grandich: Why the U.S. Stock Market's Biggest Tailwind Is About to Reverse | 25 juin 2026 | 00:46:45 | |
Veteran market analyst Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company joins Julia for a mid-year macro check-in, and his message is decidedly cautious: after 42 years in finance, he believes the time has come to prioritize capital preservation over capital appreciation, especially in U.S. equities. Grandich lays out his bearish case across political, social, and economic lines—warning of a deeply divided Congress that couldn't manage another 2008-style crisis, a likely Democratic House sweep in the midterms that could derail Trump's agenda, runaway federal and state deficits, the looming threat of wealth and unrealized capital gains taxes, and the displacement of jobs by AI and robotics. He explains why he favors Asian equities over American ones, why he's cautiously back in gold (but not a "gold bug"), and why passive investing—once the market's biggest tailwind—could become its biggest risk. Closing with a vivid craps-table metaphor about a market overdue for a "seven," Grandich ultimately pivots to faith and family, reminding viewers that net worth shouldn't be confused with self-worth. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: https://x.com/PeterGrandich https://petergrandich.com/ https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6 Timestamps: 00:00 — Welcome back & catching up with Peter Grandich 01:06 — Big-picture macro: "live chicken vs. dead duck" 06:28 — Midterms outlook & the political divide 10:54 — Echoes of 1929 and why this time is different 12:00 — State deficits, surcharges & "revenue enhancement" 13:11 — Taxes 17:30 — Congressional & presidential stock trading 20:20 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh & rate policy 22:59 — Inflation: is the 2% target dead? 25:07 — Wealth inequality & the jobs picture 28:18 — Allocation strategy: why "cookie cutter" fails 30:40 — Gold 32:00 — Spend less than you make 33:19 — Why look outside the U.S. market 34:00 — Passive investing: the market's biggest risk 38:38 — The craps table metaphor 41:32 — Parting thoughts: faith, family & "what good is it to gain the world?" | |||
| #380 Peter Schiff: End Game Coming, Bubble Popping, $2 Trillion Interest by Next Year | 23 juin 2026 | 00:48:07 | |
Peter Schiff warns the bubble is popping as crypto leads the decline, while the bond market faces another breakdown with the 10-year potentially breaking above 5%. He emphasizes inflation is a choice—all Fed chairs chose it, and Warsh will too despite tough talk, because the alternative is politically unacceptable. He reveals the May deficit surged 30% while interest expense jumped 44%, with annual interest payments now hitting $1.6 trillion and will be $2 trillion by next year. Schiff identifies Japan as a looming harbinger with 250% debt-to-GDP, yields climbing above 4%, and the yen collapsing below 160 with potential for another 30-50% decline. His end game thesis: the US dollar loses reserve currency status, US assets get repriced down, and he's positioning to "have all the chips" at the finish line. Gold's pullback from $5,600 to $4,200 is a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move, while silver at $65 is headed to $200 and Bitcoin at $64,000 should be sold. GDP growth is an illusion created by faulty deflators that understate inflation; the economy hasn't really expanded, just become more expensive, and stagflationary depression is locked in.
Thank you to our sponsors: Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Peter Schiff 00:50 Air coming out of bubble 1:16 Markets too complacent on inflation risks 1:45 Warsh has a problem - Hike or no hike, both bad 3:36 Inflation is a choice - All Fed chairs chose it 5:11 Warsh will choose inflation despite tough talk 5:24 Bond market breakdown coming - 10-year to 5%, 30-year to 5.5-6% 7:42 May deficit up 30%, interest expense up 44% 8:13 Interest payments $1.6 trillion/year, will be $2 trillion next year 9:39 Government spending up 50% since COVID, taxes reduced 10:57 Inflation is hidden tax - Government prefers it 11:52 Iran war costs through inflation, not direct taxation 13:49 Wealth tax - Slippery slope, will hit middle class eventually 19:56 Japan crisis - Debt to GDP 250%, yen collapsing below 160 20:29 Japanese bond yields at 4% on 30-year, rising fast 21:45 Japan could sell $1 trillion in US treasuries 24:41 Japan harbinger for US crisis 24:54 Treasury Secretary Paulson says crisis inevitable 27:18 Gold warning sign - Pullback to $4,200 from $5,600 normal 29:24 Silver at $65, headed to $200 32:39 Stock market at highs but economy worse than Biden 36:56 GDP illusion - Deflator too low, just prices not growth 39:48 End game - Dollar won't be reserve currency 40:40 Playing for end game, wants all chips at finish 43:31 Contrarian predictions - Higher rates, higher oil, higher gold 44:30 Japan crisis first domino, then dollar next 45:01 Summary - Stagflation and end game thesis | |||
| #379 Chris Whalen: The Bond Market Already Hiked, Why Double-Digit Inflation Is Still Ahead, And Kevin Warsh Sets New Tone at Fed | 20 juin 2026 | 00:34:23 | |
Chris Whalen is back for The Wrap after his fishing trip in Maine, where he caught a 21-inch smallmouth bass! He's very positive on Kevin Warsh's "less is more" approach at the Fed—no forward guidance, likely removing the dot plot, and refocusing on letting the numbers speak for themselves rather than trying to control expectations through communication. Whalen argues the bond market has already delivered a rate hike on its own, and if he were Warsh, he'd wait and see how the Iran peace deal holds before making more moves, given that war inflation is transitory and external to Fed policy. He reveals the definition of inflation will likely be narrowed to minimize rate hikes and avoid tanking the economy, and he's watching a massive rebalancing from equities to bonds at record allocation levels. Whalen sold most of his AI stocks and locked in serious gains, but he's holding SpaceX as a long-term play given Elon's monopolies on space launch and global internet. He warns the AI bubble is going south with Mike Saylor and Bitcoin spiraling, sees gold and silver as a great entry point after being beaten down, and is adding to positions. He explains silver's manufacturing and technology demand while copper faces supply constraints. On Iran, Whalen argues the MOU doesn't solve underlying inflation drivers—diesel, fertilizer, energy ripple through the economy—so double-digit inflation is locked in with no Fed rate cuts coming. He's concerned about private credit festering with two-and-twenty fees still common, distressed debt exchanges now over 70% of defaults since 2022, and he likes Annaly as a mortgage REIT with government-insured assets and mortgage servicing rights providing protection. Whalen notes precious metals could still rise despite rate hikes because central banks will keep accumulating gold as reserve assets.
Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira858 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen 1:47 Warsh sets different tone - No forward guidance, likely no dot plots 3:33 Less is more approach - Fed was communicating too much 5:43 Bond market has already done the rate hike 6:50 War inflation is transitory - External factor Fed can't control 7:19 Definition of inflation will be adjusted/narrowed 9:10 Bond market doing tightening, not Fed funds rate 10:34 Rebalancing from equities to bonds at record levels 11:50 Sold most AI stocks, took profits, holding SpaceX 12:07 SpaceX monopoly on space/internet - Long term play 13:57 AI trade, Bitcoin 15:57 Gold/silver beaten up but good entry, adding positions 17:02 Silver manufacturing and technology demand 17:49 Copper supply/demand - Not enough copper globally 19:32 Iran MOU doesn't solve underlying issues 21:45 Double-digit inflation locked in - Diesel, fertilizer ripple 22:34 Fed can't fix war-driven inflation 23:52 No rate cuts coming - Business banking on cuts won't get them 24:48 Private credit festering problem - Two and twenty fees 26:16 Distressed debt exchanges over 70% of defaults 29:27 Annaly - Mortgage REIT with government insured assets 30:00 Precious metals could rise despite rate hikes - Central banks buying 31:43 Precious metals dollar strength question 32:07 Next week | |||
| #378 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh Gets 9/10, Finally "Fed Up Too," Removes Dot Plot | 18 juin 2026 | 00:30:37 | |
In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, gives Kevin Warsh a 9 out of 10 on his first FOMC meeting and press conference, saying "it sounds like he's fed up too" after witnessing a dramatic departure from Powell's approach. Warsh delivered a remarkably short statement (140 words vs Powell's 341 words), removed the dot plot entirely ("show don't tell"), eliminated forward guidance, and created five task forces including communications overhaul, data exploration, and inflationary frameworks review. Danielle was thrilled he's revisiting the arbitrary 2% inflation target, moving away from core PCE (which she calls "a bunch of BS" because stock market gains inflate the metric), and exploring trim mean inflation instead. Warsh went to a grocery store asking people if Fed policy actually helps with gas, beef, and egg prices—demonstrating he understands Fed policy cannot address supply-driven inflation. He called non-farm payroll data "echoes of history" and demanded accountability, slamming the NBER for being "derelict in their duty" to call recessions when bankruptcy filings are up 38% year-over-year and personal bankruptcies surged 8%. Danielle warns the market is "calling his bluff" after today's sell-off, notes no junk bonds have been sold in 41 days signaling credit stress, and says to watch the MOVE index and credit spreads closely as the next tell. She's cautiously optimistic but "wait and see," drawing comparisons to Powell's 2018 pivot when he reversed course after market pain. Warsh managed a unanimous vote despite the aggressive reform agenda. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth 1:37 Statement very short - 140 words vs Powell's 341, "fed up too" 2:14 No forward guidance, removed dot plot - "show don't tell" 3:13 Warsh strategic approach - "I'm going to fix this broken institution" 5:20 Five task forces including communications and inflationary frameworks 7:48 Revisit 2% inflation target - Arbitrary and unnecessary 14:10 Rate cuts - most traders on Kalshi expect zero 16:57 Markets lower today, Wall Street calling his bluff 17:51 Bankruptcies up 38.4% year over year, personal up 8% 19:00 NBER derelict in recession calling - Should have called 2025 24:43 Non-farm payroll data unreliable until third revision - "echoes of history" 26:09 Financial markets work best reacting to real data, not Fed speak 27:20 Overall impression 9 out of 10, cautiously optimistic 29:15 Watch MOVE index and credit spreads for next signal 30:00 Warsh got unanimous vote - Corralled all governors | |||
| #377 Ted Oakley: We're Toward The End, Late Stage Market, Lemmings Everywhere | 16 juin 2026 | 00:45:01 | |
In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, warns the market is exhibiting all the markings of late stage using a Warren Buffett 1999 quote: "when you get to the point where every single thing that people do, any kind of strategy is up in the market...you're probably toward the end." He describes it as a "lemmings market" where followers are piling in, notes IPOs are bursting (90% lose money over 135 years), and reveals the Mag 7 is mostly down since November with only semiconductors rallying. Oakley warns baby boomers are "brain dead" and way over-invested in stocks at historic highs as a percentage of assets—if a bear market hits like 2000-2003 (down 55%), they lack the liquidity to sustain their lifestyle during down years. He's adding back gold after it corrected from $5,500 to $4,000, buying copper and natural gas as plays on AI infrastructure needs, and positioning for a commodity supercycle in early innings driven by countries hoarding raw materials. Oakley reveals energy is "dramatically cheap" with 6-8% dividends, oil reserves are depleted, and he's building a "well to the end" strategy with producers and pipelines that "can't be replaced"—like railroads. He explains gold is becoming the new currency reserve as countries dump treasuries for gold, warns private credit is a blowup risk at 11.75% rates, and emphasizes that for SpaceX windfall employees, they should take money off the table and ice enough for life. His parting advice: stick with your principles and don't let the hype throw you off. Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 0:00 Opening and introduction 1:23 Market assessment 2:40 IPOs 3:49 Late stage market indicators 7:14 Added back gold after trimming early year, mining stocks down 30% 8:05 Copper and natural gas needed for AI infrastructure 8:25 Companies on fundamentals, not macro chasing 11:16 Next 10 years commodity-based market 12:51 Commodity supercycle early innings 18:54 Energy thesis 21:47 Gold thesis - Currency reserve replacing treasuries 28:30 Bifurcated economy 29:18 Baby boomers way overinvested 32:30 Everybody's in market more than any time 37:25 Biggest risk - Government nobody believes in 39:53 Private credit issue 42:24 SpaceX windfall employees - Take some off table 44:07 Parting thoughts - Stick with your principles | |||
| #376 Chris Whalen: The Markets Know There's A Problem, Trump Admin Doesn't, Rationing Ahead | 06 juin 2026 | 00:30:13 | |
In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals an "explosive" John Dizard interview dropping next week on rationing of synthetic lubricants for turbines and hybrid cars before the midterms, while the Trump administration stays blind to the supply crisis from destroyed Persian Gulf refineries. Markets are already processing the damage, but the Trump admin lacks the organization to prepare Americans for coming energy rationing and diesel shortages. Whalen argues the Fed is "powerless" against external war-driven shocks, yet double-digit inflation is "locked in" for certain categories. He's taking profits on AI stocks (AMD, ARM) after 150-200% gains, bought back into Chevron, and declares Bitcoin "toast" as the crypto bubble bursts. He warns communities blocking data center projects will become "very significant negatives" for AI, and describes the current market as "manic"—driven purely by Fed Covid cash into AI stocks as people chase shiny objects rather than value.
Monetary-Metals.com/julia Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira852 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome 01:00 Markets this week - Tech hit hard, gold erased gains, Bitcoin crushed 4:02 John Dizard interview - Rationing synthetic lubricants before midterms 5:30 Trump admin blind to crisis, needs WWII-level mobilization 7:58 Suppliers already rationing, July/August shortages pronounced 10:41 Double-digit inflation locked in, Fed powerless against external shocks 11:58 Taking profits on AI - Sold AMD, ARM, back into Chevron 13:19 Fed doesn't understand financial markets or mortgage servicing 14:40 Bond spreads tight - Scarcity of quality assets 17:28 Bill Pulte as Acting Director of National Intelligence - Political payback 20:20 Trump shoots from hip, alienating Republicans, can't get anything done 21:02 Kevin Warsh quote - 3% inflation destroys economies 22:10 Gold erased 2026 gains - Higher rates, Bitcoin collapse 23:48 Bitcoin toast - BlackRock selling, crypto bubble burst 25:19 Manic market not driven by value, chasing AI 26:00 Communities blocking data center projects - Politics killing AI 27:07 Bubble driven by Fed Covid cash flood 28:43 Parting thoughts - Fishing in Maine, Dizard interview next week | |||
| #375 Howell: Liquidity Slowing, Speculation Phase Ending, Why A Fed Hike Might Be Coming | 02 juin 2026 | 00:43:44 | |
Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-studio episode. In this episode, Howell reveals money is flowing out of financial markets into the real economy, marking the end of Wall Street's era and the beginning of Main Street's turn. He warns the market is in a "speculation phase" with low quality returns built on narrow foundations—only AI and semiconductors are racing while most securities stagnate—and the next phase will be "turbulence" as liquidity slows and the bearish flattening yield curve continues. Howell details how the system has monetized with the Treasury refinancing $600 billion per week in short-term bills, notes there is "unquestionably way too much debt," and makes the contrarian call that the Fed will raise rates in the next 12 months because the economy is too strong at 7-8% nominal GDP growth. He positions commodities and energy as the place to be, argues gold is a hedge against monetary inflation (not CPI), and suggests the gold-oil ratio could imply oil prices of $200 per barrel. Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 0:00 Opening - Money leaving financial markets for real economy 1:29 Speculation phase - Low quality returns on narrow foundations 6:49 Liquidity rolling over - Rate of change critical 7:38 Money flowing from financial sector to real economy 13:23 Debt refinancing phenomenon - 4 out of 5 transactions 15:25 Way too much debt, only monetization is the way out 16:40 China monetizing like Japan did with Abenomics 19:32 US monetization already happening - $600B weekly debt refinancing 24:28 MOVE index suppressed through treasury buybacks 30:12 Kevin Warsh expectations for new Fed chair 32:01 Inflation no longer transitory - Now illusionary 35:48 Monetary inflation hurdle 7-8% per year 37:26 What to own - Diversified into commodities, energy, gold 40:10 Gold-oil ratio could mean oil $200 per barrel 40:50 Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months 43:15 Find him at Capital Wars Substack | |||
| #374 Chris Whalen: Fed Policy Losing Efficacy, Rate Hike Coming Anyway, Private Credit Defaults at 6% | 30 mai 2026 | 00:36:36 | |
In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals bank incomes are up but the real story is the trading side of the house driving earnings, not lending, as deposits grow faster than assets forcing banks into trading operations. He warns private credit default rates have hit a record 6%, nearly 10 times worse than bank default rates, signaling the end of the credit cycle as non-banks now lead lending. Whalen predicts double-digit inflation remains likely, expects QE5 to come despite Warsh's denials since the Fed balance sheet must grow proportionally with federal debt, and argues Fed policy is losing efficacy against external war-driven inflation that raising rates won't fix. He discusses massive housing consolidation and M&A deals coming as mortgage lenders face crushing higher rates, details how private equity is rolling up every service provider imaginable (plumbers, electricians, dentists, oncologists) and "screwing them up terribly," warns TIPS aren't reflecting true inflation, and predicts major housing lender mergers between now and year end. Whalen maintains his thesis that the Fed doesn't control long-term rates and that shrinking the balance sheet would be more effective than raising the Fed funds rate, argues the AI momentum trade is crowded and silly, and expects no action from the Fed in June but potential rate hike language removal from statements.
Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817 Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Bank Income Up, Stocks Sideways 01:00 Banks recap 5:06 Private credit default rate record 6% - 10x worse than banks 6:14 Who's most exposed to private credit losses? 7:36 Reversal in low rate environment impact 9:39 Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet strategy 10:01 Double-digit inflation still likely? 10:40 What were worst impacts of QE? 11:00 Housing was the headline impact of QE 12:43 Fed housing subsidy went outside their mandate 12:51 Fed is progressive institution out of control 13:49 We may be closer to QE5 than Bessent knows 15:05 Fed balance sheet must grow with federal debt 16:04 New leadership - what about Fed funds rate? 16:18 Potential for cut or hike? 18:06 Base case still stagflation? 20:12 Private equity excess cash looking for yield 22:10 Politics of housing affordability daunting 23:35 Viewer questions - TIPS 24:26 Municipal bond default risk 26:24 Why higher inflation won't drive down gold 28:42 AI craziness - momentum market 29:31 Trump wanted cuts but prospects disappearing 29:54 June FOMC - don't expect action 31:20 Fed balance sheet more important than Fed funds rate 33:11 Next week - bank report Monday | |||
| #373 Chris Whalen: Why We Could See Double-Digit Inflation, Rationing, & Fed Hikes | 23 mai 2026 | 00:33:51 | |
In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down how the Iran war situation is sinking GOP hopes for the midterms as he predicts double-digit inflation by year end driven by critical petroleum product shortages, with John Dizard warning rationing is coming to the United States for intensive products like gas turbine lubricants. Whalen explains the Fed will be forced to hike rates as early as July according to Diane Swonk, representing a dramatic shift from rate cut expectations just weeks ago, though raising rates won't help with external war-driven inflation and politics will eventually force cuts if the economy slows. He reveals real gas prices are actually low when adjusted for 15 years of dollar purchasing power loss, discusses how the politics of affordability will reshape the landscape with Republicans at risk of losing both House and Senate, and maintains his long gold position as inflation hedge while viewing silver as a commercial play on technology demand. Whalen details Kevin Warsh's strategy to shrink the Fed balance sheet while credibly cutting short-term rates by forcing markets to absorb more duration, explains why the 1970s stock market stagnation differs from today due to demographics and higher stock ownership, predicts Social Security will eventually be means-tested as the math has reversed from 10 workers per retiree to the opposite, and argues passive investment mechanisms killed crypto with Wall Street ETFs now controlling price action.
Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817 Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Inflation sinks GOP, private credit drama 0:37 Fed will have to get in front of inflation now 1:35 Iran situation sinking GOP hopes for midterms 2:21 Rationing coming to the United States - John Dizard prediction 3:21 Could hit double-digit inflation by year end 3:51 Walk through the double-digit inflation thesis 5:58 Real gas prices are actually low when adjusted for inflation 7:00 Knock-on effects of double-digit inflation 7:23 Politics of affordability will reshape US landscape 8:01 Republicans in danger of losing House and Senate 8:45 Diane Swonk thinks rate hike as early as July 9:01 How big of a shift is this in Fed's thinking? 9:53 Last time asset holders benefited - Will it be different this time? 11:49 Gold and silver behaving differently lately 13:09 Long gold as inflation hedge, silver as commercial play 14:01 Kevin Warsh could shrink Fed balance sheet while cutting short rates 17:39 Viewer mail - Inflation scenario with liquidity trap 20:11 Viewer question on Annaly dividend 22:11 1970s inflation vs today - Why stocks didn't make new highs then 24:05 Blue state housing policies debate 27:06 Social Security funding crisis - Means testing coming? 28:36 Third rail of American politics 28:49 Stablecoin reserve status question 31:02 Chris's parting thoughts - Significant change in narratives 33:03 Closing thoughts | |||
| #372 Ted Oakley: Why Energy Could Surge Like Gold Did Last Year, and Most Investors Don't Own Enough | 21 mai 2026 | 00:28:20 | |
In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss the stark disconnect between Wall Street momentum and the collapsing consumer, revealing credit card and auto loan delinquencies are now at Great Financial Crisis levels while the economy has shifted from K-shaped to "i-shaped" with only a tiny dot at the top. He explains his letter "The Gambler" addresses how younger investors have abandoned real investing for a betting culture of sports gambling, one-day options, and Bitcoin, while most advisors no longer know when to "hold 'em or fold 'em." Ted maintains 50% cash in short-term treasuries, predicts inflation will hit 4.25% in May rising to 4.75% by fall with financial repression as the only way out of the debt trap, and reveals energy is his largest position up 35% year-to-date despite being only 3% of the S&P (it was 33% in 1980). He expects energy to rip like gold and silver did last year since nobody owns it yet, outlines his "well to the end" strategy covering producers to pipelines to rigs, confirms we're in early innings of a commodity super cycle, and warns speculation will continue pushing until a recession breaks the momentum. Ted draws parallels to 1999 when shorts got killed for nine more months, sees no recession on the horizon yet to break the fever, and cautions that baby boomers age 65+ hold more stock than ever in history making them the worst positioned he's ever seen for the eventual wealth transfer. Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Ted Oakley returns, founder of Oxbow Advisors 0:56 Two different things - Wall Street vs. the economy 1:42 Consumer keeps falling apart - Credit card delinquencies at GFC levels 2:24 K-shaped economy becoming more like an "i-shaped" economy 3:32 "The Gambler" letter - Younger investors just betting, not investing 4:02 Betting culture - Sports betting, one-day options, Bitcoin 5:21 Know when to hold them, know when to fold them 5:39 Cash position at 50% in short-term treasuries 6:41 Long bond move - Topped 5.19% on 30-year 6:57 Late 70s/early 80s parallel - Inflation went from 5% to 18% 7:49 Are bond vigilantes coming back? 7:54 Bond market eventually rules everything 8:21 Expectation of more inflation ahead 8:27 May CPI could come in at 4.25% or higher, 4.5-4.75% by fall 9:30 Financial repression is the only way out 10:36 Can't see how Fed cuts rates at all 11:09 Asset holders benefited from inflation but that changes in linear inflation 12:18 Energy is largest position - Up 35% vs. S&P's 20% 13:11 Big tech stocks barely up from November/December levels 13:41 Semiconductors probably at high for next 5 years 14:34 Energy dramatically underweight in portfolios - Only 3% of S&P 15:03 1980: Energy was 33% of S&P 15:54 Energy names - Well to the end strategy 16:53 Producers, midstream, rigs - The whole package 17:34 Where we are in commodity cycle - Early innings 18:38 Commodity positions - Rio Tinto, Vale, uranium, antimony, critical minerals 19:18 Oil price and energy thesis 20:16 AutoZone warning on motor oil shortages coming 20:54 Precious metals positioning today 21:54 Gold could go to $4,000 or $3,800 - Shake out momentum players 23:12 1999 parallel - Momentum could continue 9 more months 24:19 No recession on horizon - Need that to break momentum 25:14 Speculative nature pushes until recession breaks it 25:51 Second Generation Wealth - Massive wealth transfer concerns 26:31 Baby boomers 65+ have most stock in assets ever in history 27:22 Closing thoughts | |||
| #371 George Noble: Fed's Hands Tied, Bond Vigilantes Waking Up, Buy the Dip Dead, Margin of Safety Thin | 19 mai 2026 | 00:46:01 | |
George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, returns to review his February predictions on bonds, energy, and the AI trade, warning that the margin of safety is particularly small right now as there's no room for error with stocks highly valued, companies over-earning, and policymakers unable to ease on either fiscal or monetary fronts. He explains bond vigilantes are awakening as yields hit 30-year highs in Japan and 20-year highs in Europe, predicts the Fed cutting rates against surging inflation will backfire spectacularly, and reveals forward oil contracts are finally rising as the market believes this situation won't pass quickly. Noble declares we're in the "golden age for stock picking" after active managers got killed by ETFs for years, warns the consumer is already in recession with stocks like Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald's, and Lululemon making multi-year relative lows, and explains his long resources/short consumer-tech spread has generated 10% returns in six weeks. He argues many stocks are in a bubble not because of high PEs but because of unsustainable margins (using shipping stocks as an analogy), reveals consumer ETFs are actually 40% Mag 7, confirms his "death of financialization" thesis as bond markets discipline politicians, and explains why Kevin Warsh is stuck between a rock and hard place with limited policy tools as the buy-the-dip mentality dies. Links: George Noble's Best Income Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/ X: https://x.com/gnoble79 Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Big picture macro update since February 0:40 Reviewing previous predictions - Energy, bonds, AI trade 3:32 Margin of safety particularly small right now 5:30 Forward curve moving up - Market believing oil situation won't pass quickly 6:02 Rising oil prices and bond yields - Not positive for risk assets 8:40 Tech leadership unsustainable - Tremendous blow off top 11:00 Buying semis on 8x book historically not a good idea 12:26 Equal weight S&P underperforming - Broader market not doing well 14:21 Long resources, short consumer and tech - 10% return spread 17:03 Bond market move confirming death of financialization thesis 19:52 Fed cutting rates against surging inflation and exploding deficits will backfire 21:15 Bond market vigilantes being awakened 23:38 Japan as canary in coal mine on debt problem 25:33 Gold miners outstanding right now - Out of favor 27:04 Regime shift happening - 60-40 model is dead 29:36 Fed is not in control - They follow the market 32:16 This is the golden age for stock picking 34:21 AI trade - Biggest misallocation of capital in history of the world 36:44 Many stocks in a bubble - Margins are the problem, not PEs 38:37 Shipping stocks example - Bubble in earnings, not valuation 40:20 Consumer is in recession 42:06 Inflation permeating - Gold to energy to food 43:28 Rates won't matter until they matter - Temperature analogy 45:51 Kevin Warsh stuck between rock and hard place 46:38 Margin of safety explained - Seth Klarman's wisdom 50:11 Death of buy the dip mentality 51:27 ETFs are not the answer - Do you know what's in your ETF? 52:53 Golden age of stock picking - Active managers killing it now 54:41 Shorting is a bad business - Just avoid garbage stocks 56:50 Best Income Ideas Conference - May 20th 59:05 Closing thoughts | |||
| #370 Chris Whalen: Why Double-Digit Inflation Is Possible, 30-Year Tops 5% | 16 mai 2026 | 00:32:57 | |
In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair and explains why this represents a dramatic shift from the progressive, statist Fed created by Mariner Eccles in the 1930s to a supply-side approach. Whalen reveals that Fed chairs have enormous unilateral power and predicts Warsh will reduce the balance sheet and reserves while trading off lower short-term rates, ending the regime where "every time the market hiccupped, the Fed ran in and dumped more reserves." He warns the 30-year bond topping 5% is just the beginning, with the long end potentially hitting 6% as Iran war impacts drive inflation to double digits by year end, possibly requiring rationing of key petroleum byproducts before the midterms. Whalen explains why silver is surging (Chinese tech demand, solid-state batteries, reduced mining) while discussing non-bank mortgage drama with United Wholesale Mortgage potentially becoming "the next Countrywide." He argues stocks will continue rising as inflation hedges, dismisses apocalyptic debt scenarios since the world needs dollars for trade, and predicts we'll need to get used to mortgages in the 6-7% range instead of 4-5% under higher-for-longer. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817 Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira845 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Silver soars, Warsh confirmed, 30-year bond tops 5% 0:32 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair - What changes now? 6:14 Market 7:29 Banks bought back more stock than they made money 9:00 30-year bond hits 5% for first time since 2008 9:56 Planning rationing strategies for key materials from petroleum 11:04 Could get to double-digit inflation by end of year 12:28 Long end of curve could get closer to 6% than 5% 12:56 Trump meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing - How big of a deal? 14:25 Dow hitting 50,000 - Blow off top or still runway? 19:02 Silver surging - What's going on? 21:03 The next Countrywide? 24:29 End game with higher for longer under Warsh 27:09 Viewer mail - National debt and market impact 29:19 Will Warsh treat Iran war inflation as self-correcting? 30:33 What Chris is watching next week/closing thoughts | |||
| #369 Melody Wright: 35-50% Housing Correction Needed, First Wave 10-12% Coming | 14 mai 2026 | 00:38:34 | |
Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for an in-person episode to discuss the frozen spring selling season and reveals disturbing signs of distress bubbling beneath the surface, including mortgage delinquencies rising at the exact time of year they should be falling. She exposes the "rage delisting" phenomenon where stubborn sellers refuse price cuts despite a massive inventory buildup, explains why the housing shortage narrative is a myth perpetuated by builders seeking a bailout, and warns that prime mortgages are now showing weakness for the first time. Melody argues that a 35-50% price correction is needed for median household income to afford median home prices, with the first wave of 10-12% likely over the next couple years. She reveals a massive shadow inventory wave from boomers that could add 20% more homes each year for the next decade, discusses how investors are fire selling (one investor dumping 300 rentals in a single market), and predicts the back half of 2026 could be "really ugly" as forbearance programs expire. Her advice: sellers should cut prices quickly to avoid cutting further, while buyers should stay patient because "the supply is coming." Links: YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody X: https://x.com/m3_melody Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com/ Timestamps 0:00 Introduction - Melody Wright returns, spring selling season 1:59 Housing market assessment - "Take three of another year frozen" 5:28 Distress bubbling under the surface 8:15 Why the shortage narrative is so pervasive 11:46 Tracking 86 markets now 15:05 Most worrisome areas - The delusional northeast 16:11 Boomer stubbornness and shadow inventory wave 16:38 How big is the shadow inventory? 20% increase for next 10 years 18:22 How far do prices need to correct? 35% to 50% 20:42 Warning signals 24:25 Most important thing overlooked 27:36 Base case - 35% to 50% correction over significant time 28:46 Spring season warning 29:54 Back half of year could be really ugly 30:17 Shortage of affordable homes because they're mispriced 30:58 Advice for sellers - Get real appraisal, cut quickly 32:36 Advice for buyers - Stay stubborn, wait for math to work 33:04 How does this feel different from 2008? 36:45 Who's buying now if institutionals are fire selling? 37:57 Parting words - Patience for buyers, supply is coming
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| #368 Michael Pento: The i-Shaped Economy Destroying the Middle Class, $2 Trillion Private Credit Bubble, and Why Credit Markets Will Fracture First | 12 mai 2026 | 00:44:30 | |
Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 368 to warn that the three asset bubbles in stocks, credit, and real estate continue growing to unprecedented levels, with total market cap now at 230% of GDP versus a 90% average. He reveals that Powell has quietly printed $170 billion since December in an undeclared QE program, calls Powell's tenure "horrific," and celebrates his departure. Pento explains he's "nervously long" the market using his five-sector inflation-deflation model, currently positioned for stagflation with commodities, precious metals, and energy. He warns that credit markets will fracture first, with private credit now at $2 trillion (bigger than the $1.3 trillion subprime market in 2008), and predicts June redemptions could trigger a death spiral. Pento believes we need a 50% market correction to return to normalcy, warns we could see 15% interest rates like the 1980s but with a far worse debt backdrop, and argues the bottom 80% of Americans are already living in depression-like conditions while crony capitalism enriches the top 20%. He sees two paths forward: voluntary asset price reconciliation or forced hyperinflation leading to currency reset. Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento 0:00 Introduction - Michael Pento returns after 6 months 0:59 Big picture macro view - Bubbles grow bigger 2:19 Powell's "horrific tenure" - $4.5 trillion printed 3:32 QE program continues - $170 billion since December 4:39 Kevin Warsh-led Fed - What changes are coming? 5:52 Warsh will punish Wall Street, boost Main Street 7:06 Stock bubble metrics - 230% of GDP (average is 90%) 8:24 Crony capitalism vs. free market economics 9:10 Why capitalism gets a bad name 10:01 Home price to income ratio at all-time highs 11:01 Disconnect between stock market highs and consumer sentiment lows 11:35 Only top 20% doing well - The "i-shaped economy" 12:33 AI spending reminds Michael of 1999 tech bubble 13:33 Are you confident Kevin Warsh can get us back to normalcy? 14:41 What would normal market valuations look like? 15:06 Would need 50% correction to return to normal 17:05 Wouldn't printing just set us up for more problems? 18:57 Either scenario leads to higher rates 19:37 Implications of double-digit rates on everything 20:38 Are you still nervously long the market? 21:19 Michael's not a perma bear - History of market crashes 23:02 How dangerous can this bubble be when it bursts? 24:03 Michael's 5-sector inflation-deflation model 25:14 Precious metals trade - Why only 6% position 26:41 Energy thesis - After Iran war 27:30 Explaining the 5 sectors - Which is most worrisome? 28:25 Stagflation is the base case going forward 29:01 Post-recession: $6 trillion deficits, $12 trillion Fed balance sheet 29:55 Could we see 15% interest rates like 1980? 31:17 What's the end game here? 33:21 Are we past the point of no return? 34:58 Which bubble bursts first - The epicenter? 35:44 Watch credit markets first - Private credit warning 36:46 June redemptions could trigger death spiral 37:47 Is private credit too big to fail now? 38:21 Risk not getting attention - Pressure on middle class 40:00 Buy now pay later defaults surging 40:29 Bottom 80% living in depression conditions 41:18 Preventing tremors creates epic shocks 42:48 Has anyone talked about $170 billion of QE since December? 43:24 What makes Michael hopeful for the future 44:01 Closing thoughts | |||