Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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#416 Chris Whalen: Cheap Credit Is Over, K-Shaped Economy Becoming an L, Long Energy & Short Financials
Épisode 416
samedi 3 octobre 2026 • Durée 33:59
The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a weak jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added against expectations of 90,000, and long-term yields still elevated. Chris argues that rising bond yields reflect real inflation running in the mid-to-high single digits, well above the official numbers, and that the era of Fed-suppressed rates that began in 2008 is over. He expects the Fed to hold in October and possibly hike in November, and makes the case that Powell gave Trump nearly everything he wanted while incoming Chair Warsh is a hawk. Chris explains why $8–9 diesel and high replacement costs mean building more homes won't fix affordability, and why consumer credit stress is spreading upward. In his words, the K-shaped economy is "fast becoming an L." He reveals he's now short a couple of bank names, has rotated heavily into energy, and sees "long energy, short financials" as the trade for the next year or two. He also previews a tough midterm for Republicans, answers a viewer question on raising taxes, and discusses Judy Shelton's move to Treasury and his critique of the FASB's mortgage servicing rights proposal.
Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/
Links:
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
0:18 – Jobs report misses badly, but yields stay high
1:28 – Is real inflation higher than the official stats?
2:51 – October FOMC: hike, hold, or wait for November?
4:20 – Powell gave Trump everything he wanted
6:24 – The easy environment is over: diesel and demand destruction
7:36 – Why building more homes won't fix affordability
9:28 – 7%+ mortgage rates and pain in the mortgage industry
10:40 – Portfolio rebalancing: selling financials, buying energy
11:43 – Cracks in consumer credit
13:01 – Restaurant and grocery margins (and the Publix real estate play)
14:45 – The K-shaped economy is becoming an L
17:11 – Why Chris is bearish on banks and shorting a few
18:34 – Is a recession ahead?
18:56 – Midterms, affordability, and Trump's lame-duck period
21:29 – Will Warsh give Trump what he wants?
23:36 – Viewer Q: Why not raise taxes to cut the deficit?
25:36 – Judy Shelton joins Treasury, and gold as money
27:01 – Chris critiques the FASB mortgage servicing rights proposal
29:08 – What Chris is watching: credit markets and Q3 earnings
31:18 – Why this year will be remembered as extraordinary
31:58 – Wrap-up
#415 Dr. Mark Thornton: The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning Nobody in Washington Wants to Fix
Épisode 415
jeudi 1 octobre 2026 • Durée 54:04
Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, joins Julia to explain why the bond market is the pivotal story right now. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, the national debt is over $40 trillion, and deficits are running at about $2 trillion a year. Thornton argues that this is wartime-level borrowing during supposedly good times. It crowds out private investment, weighs on wages, and widens the K-shaped divide between asset owners and everyone else. He explains why he thinks the Fed's recent hike won't be its last. In his view, Chairman Warsh and Secretary Bessent are managing the problem rather than solving it, and a market break or crisis could give the Fed cover to restart money printing. He describes the US as merging onto the "highway to hyperinflation," draws on historical cases from Revolutionary France to Weimar Germany, and closes with why he expects hard assets and commodities to outperform financial assets over the next decade.
#414 Andy Constan: Markets Vulnerable to Disappointment, Cautious on Equities, and the 60/40 Strikes Back
Épisode 445
mardi 29 septembre 2026 • Durée 56:51
Andy Constan, founder and CIO of Damped Spring and a veteran of Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. He lays out his four-pillar macro framework and explains why he's turning cautious on equities despite a strong U.S. economy. His "pie theory" argues that the earnings AI companies are promising add up to more than the GDP available to deliver them. His "hamburger theory" warns that the massive borrowing needed to fund AI capex could stall if capital markets take a breather. With rates spiking for the seventh time since COVID, Constan doubts policymakers will engineer another V-top. He is currently short equities and max long long-term bonds, arguing that the much-maligned 60/40 portfolio is finally worth owning again. He also gives his early read on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, explains what it would really take to kill inflation, and argues that this cycle has no clean historical analog because it's fueled by public-sector rather than private-sector debt. He closes with the story of analyzing every trade from the 1987 crash on the Brady Commission at age 23, and his core advice: own a well-constructed portfolio at your risk target and hold it for life.
#413 Chris Whalen: Bonds, Gold, Energy, & the Coming Food Shock
Épisode 413
samedi 26 septembre 2026 • Durée 32:20
Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already "baked into the cake," and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies.
Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/
Links:
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
#412 Michael Pento: 2027 Will Be a Very Difficult Year – Here's Why
Épisode 412
jeudi 24 septembre 2026 • Durée 49:30
Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche Show to warn that the U.S. faces what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit, all inflated at once for the first time in history. He argues that years of persistent inflation, soaring national debt, foreign creditors stepping back from Treasuries, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade are pushing bond yields higher, and that rising rates will ultimately burst all three bubbles. For the first time since 2021, Pento gives a timeline: he expects 2027 to be a very difficult year as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh hikes rates and slows balance sheet growth, putting it in direct conflict with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to hold down long-term yields. Pento explains why he reluctantly uses the word "depression," why the traditional 60/40 portfolio could fail retirees, and why he believes the Fed will eventually return to money printing, triggering a prolonged era of "hyperstagflation." He also shares how he's positioned today, still net long, with short-term Treasuries, dividend payers, and precious metals, while watching credit markets closely because "the clock is ticking."
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/
Links:
https://pentoport.com/
https://twitter.com/michaelpento
0:00 Cold open: "With reluctance, depression"
0:19 Welcome back, Michael Pento
0:59 The macro picture: 5+ years of inflation crushing consumers
4:16 Insolvency, foreign creditors & the yen carry trade unwind
#411 George Noble: Market Is Entering a Dangerous Phase
Épisode 411
mardi 22 septembre 2026 • Durée 40:04
George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, joins Julia in studio as the 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5% and the Fed hikes rates. George says his call is "rotation, not recession." He's passionately bearish on tech and consumer discretionary and wildly bullish on gold and energy, which have been on fire this year. He argues the bond market is driving everything: runaway deficits and the AI capex boom are pushing up the global cost of capital. In his view, today's rates aren't abnormal; the long era of depressed rates was. He gives a pointed critique of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's attempts to suppress yields and explains why the Fed follows the market rather than leading it. He also makes the case that the real bubble is in earnings, not valuations. The conversation covers private credit, the housing correction, $40 trillion in debt, and the money illusion of pricing assets in dollars rather than gold. George explains why he thinks rates and oil keep rising until the market breaks, and why the risk-reward favors gold, energy, and cash over the traditional 60/40 portfolio.
Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/
Links:
George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/
X: https://x.com/gnoble79
Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:12 Big picture: "weeks where decades happen" as the 10-year breaks 5%
2:23 "R is for rotation, not recession"
#410 Chris Whalen: Age of Uncertainty - Falling Home Prices, Cracks in Private Credit, & Sidelined Fed
Épisode 410
samedi 19 septembre 2026 • Durée 34:17
Chris Whalen returns after the FOMC's 25-basis-point hike and calls it what he wrote in his notes: lame. His argument is that the Fed has become the tail and the Treasury the dog — with a $2 trillion deficit running above 6% of GDP, monetary policy is close to irrelevant, and Kevin Warsh will eventually be forced back into QE and debt monetization whether he wants it or not. That leaves Congress, which Whalen says has stopped doing the one job only it can do, prompting a provocative exchange with Julia about whether a fiscal crisis ends with a manager running the purse the way FDR ran 1933. From there the conversation turns to where the damage shows up: housing, where more than half of American homes fell in price over the past year and Whalen expects a real correction into 2028; private credit and insurance, where he agrees with Jeffrey Gundlach that private credit is the fuse and the insurers are the bomb, and warns annuity holders at the wrong carriers may not be made whole; and energy, where the Houthis' grip on the Red Sea may force the refining industry to redeploy away from the Persian Gulf entirely. He also walks through his own portfolio — Schwab, Flagstar, Annaly, AGNC, and steady additions to gold and silver — explains why he holds no T-bills, and gives his take on the SEC's innovation exemption, calling crypto tokens a polite form of fraud better regulated by state gaming commissions.
Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/
Links:
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover
#409 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Is Hiking Into Recession, Consumers Tapped Out, & Credit Tightening
Épisode 409
jeudi 17 septembre 2026 • Durée 34:32
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and author of Fed Up, joins Julia La Roche to break down the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement first looked dovish, but markets reversed after Warsh's record-short 29-minute press conference hinted at more hikes. That sent the 10-year Treasury to 5.01%, its highest level since 2007. Danielle argues Warsh has broken his own "zero forward guidance" pledge and is "enamored with his narrative" of a Goldilocks economy. She points to a labor market already in recessionary territory, with long-term unemployed now outnumbering job leavers. She says core PCE inflation is on a steady path lower, while households face mounting strain from gas prices, utility bills, bankruptcies, and tightening credit. The two also discuss the K-shaped economy and why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not be done acting on the bond market. Danielle explains why peak AI investment, propped up by hyperscaler accounting gains, is the biggest risk she sees. She closes on an optimistic note about the work ethic of today's college-age generation.
#408 Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street
Épisode 408
mercredi 16 septembre 2026 • Durée 01:02:22
Legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. He warns that the market has "crossed over to the hard side of the street." With the Shiller CAPE above 42, he says history points to negative real returns for the next decade. Cracks are already showing in AI-related credit, where junk bonds and bank loans have widened sharply while the rest of high yield holds up. Gundlach says he now wants out of the AI "epicenter" entirely. He walks through his current portfolio: equal-weight equities, a barbell of high-quality bonds and local-currency emerging market debt, gold, commodities, and short-duration "dry powder." He expects CPI to print above 4% as oil tops $100 and diesel hits $8 a gallon, and he predicts a 25 basis point hike from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. He also explains why 30-year TIPS won't protect investors from rising rates and why he's skeptical of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Operation Twist. He sees a dangerous web of private credit, arbitraged credit ratings, and offshore reinsurance, calling private credit the fuse and insurance companies the bomb. He urges annuity buyers to stick with mutual insurers and warns that bailout pressure will be intense when the AI and private markets reckoning arrives.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@DoubleLineCapitalWebsite: https://doubleline.com/Webcasts: https://doubleline.com/doubleline-webcasts/0:00 Intro 1:16 Shiller CAPE, a decade of negative real returns? 3:33 The mood turns: AI credit starts to crack 8:10 Gundlach Unlocked: his new portfolio with zero AI exposure 12:12 Gold, plus commodities and dry powder 17:25 Rising rates and the $40 trillion debt milestone 17:55 Operation Twist and the endgame for the debt 22:19 Oil above $100 and a near-empty Strategic Petroleum Reserve25:12 Why CPI is headed above 4% and Warsh's 2% promise28:54 The German Bund and GDP model for the 10-year31:54 When he'd buy long bonds35:27 Will Warsh hike? 38:31 Advice for Scott Bessent? 40:14 The Fed follows the 2-year41:20 Dollar debasement and the 30-year TIPS myth43:29 Why you can't trust credit ratings46:27 Private credit is the fuse, insurers are the bomb53:25 Peak optimism: this feels like 1999 and 20061:01:18 Final warning: the hard side of the street
#407 Chris Whalen: $100 Oil, 5% Rates, and a Home Price Correction Coming for the Whole Country
Épisode 407
samedi 12 septembre 2026 • Durée 36:41
The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a summer vacation with a blunt read on the fall ahead: affordability — fuel, housing, food — has already decided the midterms, and the Iran conflict plus the Russia-Ukraine war have created a shortage not just of crude but of refined products, with refinery maintenance season and the shift to heating oil set to push prices higher still. He calls $100 oil and a 5% 10-year Treasury the new normal, argues Scott Bessent's buyback strategy has failed, and expects a quarter-point hike next week while raising the more unsettling question: what happens if the Fed raises short rates and the long end goes up anyway? On gold, Whalen is still accumulating, sees $6,000–$7,000 only after a fiscal catalyst like a bad Treasury auction, and points to Shanghai's gold-linked clearing system and Russia's 100-ton sale to China as evidence of where physical demand really lives. He also answers viewer questions on the exodus at Fannie Mae, the flawed data behind credit scores, how to actually save in gold, why he owns only Flagstar and Schwab, and warns that Florida's home price correction is coming for the rest of the country next year.
Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/
Links:
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover
0:43 Big picture: 10- and 30-year yields at 25-year highs
4:24 Are we in a new higher-rate regime?
11:48 Wartime deficits in "good times"
18:21 Who wins and who loses from easy money
20:25 Young people, housing, and the K-shaped economy
24:02 Food, energy, and the Persian Gulf conflict
28:10 Are we on the on-ramp to hyperinflation?
34:03 Fed rate hikes: more coming, and what's next
39:27 No consequences: the "magic checkbook"
47:28 How to protect yourself: hard assets
51:28 Where to find Dr. Thornton's work
00:00 Introduction and welcome Andy Constan 00:50 The four-pillar macro framework: growth, inflation, risk premium, positioning 02:42 Where we are: a strong economy and 66 months of above-target inflation 05:20 AI and the "pie theory": why there isn't enough GDP for the earnings expectations 12:22 The "hamburger theory": who pays for the AI capex boom 13:50 The seventh rate spike: will it V-top again? 17:43 Why he's getting cautious on stocks 18:13 How most people should invest: risk targets and always owning beta 21:43 Seeking alpha and his current positioning: short equities, max long bonds 24:21 "The 60/40 Strikes Back": why bonds make sense again 29:30 Bonds finally get the growth memo 31:58 Vulnerable to disappointment, not recession 32:52 His read on Kevin Warsh at the Fed 36:59 What it would actually take to kill inflation 38:45 Why the administration isn't fighting inflation 41:37 What's mispriced right now 43:35 Historical analogs: 0DTE options, portfolio insurance, and a public-debt-driven cycle 48:09 Serving on the Brady Commission after the 1987 crash at age 23 53:02 Parting thoughts and where to find Andy
The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry
4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end
5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk
6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system
7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals
8:55 – Why rising yields haven't broken the gold thesis
9:49 – The dollar and a multilateral currency world
11:58 – October hike? The refinery capacity crisis
14:05 – Diesel, sulfur, and the fertilizer shock
15:40 – Double-digit inflation is "baked into the cake"
16:36 – The endgame: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
18:22 – Demand destruction and why the Fed may cut
21:24 – Viewer Q: Selling Annaly, buying energy
23:36 – Viewer Q: Any shorts?
24:21 – Viewer Q: An oversight board for Congress and means-testing Social Security
27:42 – Why Social Security is invested in Treasuries
29:10 – Viewer Q: Will housing prices fall?
30:23 – Viewer Q: Private credit and long-term care policies
31:25 – Wrap-up
The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
8:15 Sponsor: Monetary Metals
10:06 The "triumvirate of bubbles": stocks, real estate & credit
14:40 Not a perma-bear: 35 years in the business
15:18 Pento's first timeline since 2021: why 2027
20:08 The forgotten middle class & why the pain is necessary
21:39 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals
23:12 Warsh vs. Bessent: are the Fed and Treasury at odds?
24:43 Who wins? "The free market always wins"
25:43 Why he's calling it a depression, not a recession
28:26 Retirees beware: the danger of the 60/40 portfolio
33:02 Where to hide in "hyperstagflation"
34:48 How Pento is positioned right now (still net long)
39:19 Is there hope on the other side?
42:32 The biggest risk nobody's watching: long-term rates
43:33 Record debt, private credit & "this is not normal"
46:28 How to follow Michael Pento
5:18 How high can rates go? Why the ultra-low-rate era was the abnormal one
8:28 Why we're in a dangerous phase of the market
11:46 Why rotation comes before recession: deficits are force-feeding the economy
12:57 Passionately bearish on consumer, wildly bullish on gold and energy
13:31 George's critique of Scott Bessent, plus lessons from Soros vs. the Bank of England
16:45 "I am the house": Bessent, hubris, and Mr. Market
20:18 $40 trillion in debt and "banana republic" behavior
21:48 Midterm elections and what a sweep could mean for markets
22:20 The ticking clock in private credit and private equity
23:17 The Fed's rate hike: Warsh, word salad, and why the Fed follows the market
28:07 The real bubble isn't valuations, it's earnings
30:25 The housing correction is already happening
31:11 Money illusion: the S&P and bonds priced in gold, not "American pesos"
35:35 What "the market breaks" actually looks like
38:44 How George is positioned: gold, energy, cash, and picking stocks
39:17 Closing thoughts
Timestamps:
0:00 – Welcome back
1:03 – "The Fed had to do something or be irrelevant"
5:38 – Is the FOMC even relevant anymore?
5:57 – Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail
6:20 – The Fed will be forced to monetize the debt
6:48 – A dysfunctional Congress
9:39 – The age of uncertainty
10:00 – Half of American homes fell in price this year
11:12 – Misery on the Eights: the correction into 2028
11:24 – Gundlach: private credit is the fuse, insurance is the bomb
11:50 – How PE used insurers to compound too fast
13:28 – Why annuity holders are calling
14:02 – Duration matching and the part of the industry that works
15:28 – Energy
16:03 – Trump, the war he started, and no leadership
17:15 – Echoes of the 1970s — and Europe's winter
18:41 – Bank stocks are dead; deposit costs are rising again
20:34 – The AI trade
21:28 – Where do you put money with no clear narrative?
21:48 – Gold doesn't trade like a stock
22:20 – Chris on his own portfolio
23:06 – Schwab, Bank of America, and the low-hanging fruit nobody picks
24:52 – Crypto: the SEC's innovation exemption after Clarity failed
27:03 – Can Congress legislate at all after the midterms?
28:18 – Viewer Q: Does flattening change the Annaly call?
29:33 – Why Chris owns no T-bills
30:26 – What he's watching the rest of the year
31:37 – Close
The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
0:40 Fed hikes 25 bps: the big-picture takeaway
1:22 Markets price in three more hikes after the press conference
4:21 Assessing Warsh so far: forward guidance despite his pledge
28:30 – Pulte, VantageScore, and the bad-data problem in credit scoring
29:39 – Viewer Q: How do you actually save in gold?
30:45 – Florida home prices are falling — "Misery on the Eights"
31:31 – Viewer Q: The big money center banks
32:47 – Viewer Q: Book recommendations and the gold book
33:23 – Closing thoughts: an age of instability
The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
