The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.
Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa's devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.
Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.
For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.
(Formerly "Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)
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Données mises à jour le 24/10/2026
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A Brazilian congressman runs a WhatsApp channel called "Lula's Army." This week it passed ten million followers, part of a late surge that has turned a race Lula was losing into a near tie. Monica de Bolle of the Peterson Institute for International Economics maps what Sunday's runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro decides: who fills at least three of the Supreme Court's eleven seats, whether anyone fixes debt rules built for an age of runaway inflation, and who controls the world's second-largest rare earth reserves - where an American company has agreed to buy a mine. Monica is extremely confident in at least one thing: "The potential to disappoint is enormous."
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(00:00) - Intro/Welcome
(01:20) - A race that flipped in three weeks
(03:33) - Meta, WhatsApp and the online campaign
(05:39) - Supreme Court seats and the Orbán comparison
(09:47) - Lula's record, and the market's hope for a Brazilian Milei
(15:40) - Why Brazil's interest rates are so high
(21:24) - The reforms nobody will make
(26:09) - Washington, Beijing and Brazil's new trade deals
(33:36) - Can Brazil lead? Rare earths and a mine in Goiás
(41:46) - Why micro-entrepreneurs left Lula
(47:14) - The military and Brazil's regional role
(51:36) - "The potential to disappoint is enormous"
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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Brazilianization
Saison 1 · Épisode 360
lundi 19 octobre 2026 • Durée 01:05:57
Brazil was always the country of the future - prophesied as a new Eden since the sixteenth century, promised great things that never quite arrived. Alex Hochuli’s argument is that the future caught up to Brazil from the other direction. The wealthy world didn’t pull the laggards forward; it declined to meet them. A shrinking middle class, patrimonial politics, collapsing trust, gated condominiums and open sewers alongside WhatsApp. This is Brazilianization, and Hochuli joins from São Paulo days after Lula’s loss in the first round to explain what it looks like from inside. A bleak conversation, honestly held - and one that argues the center didn’t get stolen from. It ran out of things to say.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro
01:45 Alex Journey to Brazil
04:05 Election Shock and Polls
06:57 Why Voters Want Change
10:07 Lula Coalition and Constraints
12:54 Security and Cost of Living
15:28 Brazil in Regional Context
19:18 Scandals and Hyper Online Politics
23:02 Where Did the Left Go
24:03 Work Precarity and New Aspirations
28:50 Gambling Faith and Get Rich Culture
32:04 Evangelical Surge Explained
34:51 Urban Insecurity and Community
36:20 Religion Shifts Politics Right
37:18 Brazilianization Goes Global
38:44 Modernization Ends and Decay
43:48 Flexibility Era Revisited
45:45 China as an Exception
50:13 US China and Brazil Voice
Ethiopia's New War
Saison 1 · Épisode 359
lundi 12 octobre 2026 • Durée 46:01
Eritrea and (a Tigrayan-led) Ethiopia fought one of Africa’s deadliest wars against each other. Then Eritrea helped Ethiopia crush Tigray. Now Eritrea and Tigray are fighting Ethiopia together. Confusing? Super. Nicholas Norbrook of The Africa Report maps the forces pulling at a country that was, until recently, one of the fastest-growing economies on earth - a messianic prime minister with a very young team, Emirati money on several sides at once, Egypt quietly assembling a coalition to box Addis in, and a short run to the Red Sea coast that would be very easy to attempt and very hard to survive.
We've put together a little primer on the conflict because this one is confusing as hell.
General Context:
Eritrea was a federated part of Ethiopia from the 1950's until the 1990s. Tigray is a region in northern Ethiopia, and Tigrayans are the ethnic group who live there - roughly 6% of Ethiopians identify as Tigrayan, although the Tigrayan People's Libreration front ruled Ethiopia from 1991-2018. Tigrayans speak Tigrinya - the same language as the Eritrean highlanders just across the border (the Tigrinya people), who make up about half of Eritrea’s population. Same language, same church, same highland culture, split by a border Italy drew in the 1890s.
Modern Conflict Timeline:
1991 - The TPLF (Tigrayan People's Liberation Front) overthrows Ethiopia’s military dictatorship and runs the country until 2018. Eritrea gains its independence and breaks away fully from Ethiopia.
1998 - A border war with Eritrea is fought by a Tigrayan-led Ethiopia, largely on Tigrayan ground, with ~100,000+ people dead. Conflict ends in 2000.
2018 - Abiy Ahmed takes power in Ethiopia, sidelines the TPLF, makes peace with Eritrea, and collects a Nobel Peace Prize.
2020 - Eritrean troops help Abiy Ahmed crush Tigrayan resistance. The Pretoria Agreement freezes that war in November 2022 without settling any of it.
2026 - In September, the fighting reignited, now with Tigray and Eritrea loosely opposing Ethiopia.
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Circular Financing
Saison 1 · Épisode 358
lundi 5 octobre 2026 • Durée 55:57
Mark Walter bought the Lakers for $10 billion and sold them fourteen months later for $12.5. That's a 20% return - which sounds enormous until you consider that nobody sells the Lakers after a year unless something has gone badly wrong. Chris Branch, author of The Athletic's The Pulse, joins to pull on the thread: life insurance money funding franchise purchases, a UAE sovereign wealth fund in the holding company, a Kushner and a former Disney CEO waiting on the other side. Neither of them can prove anything. Both of them can tell something is rotten.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:45) - Why the Lakers Sale Matters
(03:12) - Mark Walter’s Rise and Red Flags
(04:58) - Insurance Money and Shady Ownership
(07:24) - Sports Franchise Valuation Boom
(10:42) - Streaming Deals and Bubble Fears
(11:50) - Fans Priced Out and Losing Connection
(14:35) - What Happens Next for Walter
(18:17) - NBA Expansion Vegas vs Europe
(25:42) - When Franchise Values Could Fall
(26:55) - New Orleans Relocation History
(27:43) - NBA Valuations and Debt
(28:32) - Financing Partners and Risk
(29:25) - LSU NFL Return Loophole
(32:02) - NIL Money and No Rules
(35:03) - Universities Under Strain
(37:39) - Youth Sports Pay to Play
(39:02) - Gambling and Market Manipulation
(45:16) - Tradition vs Mercenary Players
(46:42) - Jayden Daniels NIL Clash
Rubio Makin Moves
Saison 1 · Épisode 357
lundi 28 septembre 2026 • Durée 56:09
Two hundred years ago, Simón Bolívar dreamed of a united Latin America - precisely so it could resist becoming America's backyard. South America may finally be integrating... Just not the way he had in mind. Elohim Monard joins from Pucallpa, deep in the Peruvian Amazon, to trace what Marco Rubio's recent swing through the region actually accomplished, why security is the MacGuffin and China is the real story, and how a continent ends up saying "yes sir" while Chinese state companies quietly run its ports and power grids. Plus: the Latin Americanization of US politics, and why El Salvador might be the next Singapore.
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Podcast Welcome
(00:44) - Recording In Amazon
(02:43) - Amazon Versus Lima
(06:03) - Fujimori Nostalgia
(08:49) - Rubio Trip Backdrop
(11:18) - Bolivar Dream Reversed
(15:57) - Venezuela Power Signal
(22:22) - Bukele Surprise Move
(24:47) - Canada Multilateral Bet
(27:48) - Brazil Won’t Lead Region
(28:53) - Amazon Barrier Paradox
(30:51) - Learning From Brazil’s Balancing
(32:22) - Cuba Crisis And US Moves
(34:06) - Trade Partners Split Region
(36:58) - Security As A Pretext
(40:36) - Peru As China Flashpoint
(44:27) - Avoiding Cold War 2.0
(47:13) - Bukele And Singapore Model
(48:44) - Latin Americanization And Submission
(53:14) - Rubio’s Role And US Demands
(54:55) - Closing And Sign Off
The Sand Mafias
Saison 1 · Épisode 356
mercredi 23 septembre 2026 • Durée 47:54
People are being killed over sand. Not diamonds, not lithium, not rare earths - sand, the second-most consumed resource on earth after water, and the one nobody thinks about twice. Mette Bendixen, a geoscientist at McGill, studies where it comes from and who pays the price for it. Dubai imports its sand from Australia. Greenland's melting ice sheet is quietly producing a new export. And somewhere in Rwanda, a woman crushes stones by hand for two weeks to earn twenty dollars. The foundation of the modern world turns out to be a resource with no lobby, no regulation, and a growing body count.
Inside you are two wolves. One (Michael Every) looks at Washington and sees a plan. The other (Jacob) looks at the same info and sees chaos. Somewhere north of both is the sovereign nation of Canada - a country discovering what it actually costs to step away from Washington and forge out on its own. Is Carney brave or delusional? Does scale decide everything? When the polite fictions come down, what's left holding any of this together? Tune in for a real disagreement between people who like each other, both wolves get fed.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Setup
(00:10) - Meet Michael Every
(02:39) - Why This Debate
(04:03) - Canada Opening Salvo
(06:07) - Every on Strategy
(10:15) - Canada EU China Options
(16:20) - Sovereignty and Pain
(21:44) - Defense Reality Check
(27:15) - US Threat vs Russia
(31:07) - US Security Red Lines
(34:21) - Polling Turns on Canada
(35:10) - Tariffs Without Strategy
(35:41) - Japan and Korea Pushback
(37:23) - Supply Chains Still China
(37:48) - Defining Real Statecraft
(38:18) - Macro Strategy Defense
(41:36) - Tariffs and Dollar Overreach
(43:53) - Trial and Error Governance
(45:17) - Geopolitical Plays Venezuela Iran
(48:06) - What Actually Comes Back
(51:52) - Work Culture and Foundry Schools
The $10 Trillion Ocean
Saison 1 · Épisode 354
lundi 7 septembre 2026 • Durée 01:06:52
The world has never been wealthier... but a warm patch of ocean in the Pacific is about to reorganize the weather across four continents and all that wealth still might not be enough to cover the damages. Climate scientist Justin Mankin studies how much these events actually cost - and his estimates run to $10 trillion or more in global economic loss over the next five years. Big numbers, short timeframe, scary outlook. But the hardest question that Dr. Mankin brought up with us wasn't about how we're gunna pay for all of this, it's about what gets lost when we measure disasters in GDP instead of lives.
Do we want richer world or a better one?
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(01:16) - Why El Niño Matters Now
(02:47) - El Niño and IOD Explained
(07:48) - Teleconnections and Predictability
(09:47) - El Niño Life Cycle and Timing
(11:53) - Defining Normal in Climate Data
(14:39) - How El Niño Is Measured
(22:19) - ONI vs RONI and Super El Niño Hype
(26:59) - Drought Monitoring and Shifting Baselines
(32:08) - How Gnarly Is El Niño
(34:31) - Warming World Impacts
(35:20) - Counting El Niño Costs
(38:16) - El Niño to La Niña
(39:12) - Springback Physics Explained
(42:32) - Trillions in Damages
(44:00) - Causal Inference Methods
(50:09) - Conflict and Thresholds
(01:00:03) - Five Year Outlook
Boil the Frog
Saison 1 · Épisode 353
lundi 31 août 2026 • Durée 01:11:46
Scott Bessent knows something that we don't. Luke Gromen has spent his whole career reading the fine print of America's balance sheet, and his conclusion is stark: the quiet interventions coming out of Washington - doubled bond buybacks, a yen rescue, a sudden fondness for stablecoins - aren't policy. They're symptoms. The arithmetic of debt, entitlements, and interest has crossed a threshold from which, Gromen argues, there are only three exits, and none of them are painless. We've got a crisis hiding in plain sight - and someone is gunna end up paying for it.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro
(00:21) - Past Episode Reflections
(00:49) - Bitcoin and AI Disagreements
(01:58) - Luke Returns to the Show
(02:24) - Why Everything Feels Faster
(03:52) - Bessent and Bond Buybacks
(08:11) - True Interest Expense Alarm
(15:00) - Is It a Crisis Yet
(20:38) - Crisis Symptoms and Options
(26:54) - Japan Treasury Selling Fears
(29:06) - Allies Follow China Playbook
(34:01) - Stablecoins and CLARITY Act
(36:07) - No Silver Bullet
(36:48) - Inflation Over Bonds
(38:39) - Gold and Bitcoin Hedge
(39:09) - No Currency Alternative
(40:44) - China Gold Yuan System
(43:33) - Gold as Neutral Reserve
(48:31) - Multipolar Reserve Trap
(50:32) - Zugzwang and Supply Chains
(55:30) - Back to Gold Energy Link
Pulped
Saison 1 · Épisode 352
lundi 24 août 2026 • Durée 58:41
AI companies are buying up used books, scanning them, and destroying the originals. At least, that's the headline... the real story is weirder. Charlie Becker, a seventh-generation bookseller in Houston, went viral for tracing one of these mysterious bulk orders - following overlooked books into Amazon warehouses filled with entire categories of obscure human knowledge. Today we're taking the plunge into a mystery that spans artificial intelligence, culture, and the LTV of a "rare" book.
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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(52:55) - Rebuilding the Whole System
(57:21) - Fear Moments and Next Steps
(01:00:26) - Stablecoins and New Finance
(01:02:26) - Scale Matters Canada vs US
(01:03:15) - Closing and Where to Follow
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Referenced in the Show:
Michael Every - https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/our-experts/011085368/michael-every
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
--
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