The Decision-Making Studio Podcast – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Today, my guest is Dave Snowden, a leading expert in complexity theory and knowledge management. Dave is the creator of the Cynefin Framework, which is a tool for understanding challenges and helping us make decisions within the right context. His work is international in nature. It covers government and industry, looking at complex issues relating to strategy and organizational decision-making. He is a popular and passionate keynote speaker on a range of topics, and he's well-known for his pragmatic cynicism - and you will hear that come through as you listen to this episode.

I wish I had come across Dave's work earlier in my career because I think I'd have made some different career choices. In particular, his 2007 Harvard Business Review article with Mary Boone is excellent. It was on the cover of the November edition of the HBR and won the Academy of Management Award for Best Paper of that year.

In this episode, we dive into the nuances of decision-making in complex environments. He walks us through the Cynefin Framework and how it helps us understand the challenges at hand. Dave shares insights into how organizations can avoid the pitfalls of traditional decision-making approaches that often oversimplify complex issues. We also explore the role of narrative in making sense of complexity and how his work with something called SenseMaker, supports capturing and interpreting diverse perspectives. If you're interested in how to navigate complexity and make better decisions in uncertain times, this episode is a must-listen.

Show notes:

Dave Snowden

The Cynefin Framework

Dave and Mary Boone’s 2007 HBR Article, “A Leader’s Framework for Decision-Making”

SenseMaker

Estuarine Mapping

EU Field Guide to Managing Complexity (and Chaos) in Times of Crisis

Wardley Maps - A strategic mapping technique that helps organizations understand and adapt to their competitive landscape.

Gary Klein’s Pre-mortem

Max Boisot’s I-Space

London taxi drivers’ “The Knowledge”

Taylorism

Agile

Hawthorne effect

Cynefin’s ‘risk matrix’

Abductive thinking

Dave on algorithmic induction

Dave on AI: “anthropomorphising idiot savants”

_ _ _ _

Like what you heard?

Subscribe to The Decision-Making Studio Podcast

Sign up for our Decision Navigators Course

https://thedecisionmaking.studio/

Today, we delve into the role of our nervous system in decision-making, and we explore whether the best decision-making is emotional. This one will perhaps make you think differently about that. That does not mean that we ought to decide impulsively or like a toddler, but it does mean that we should integrate our emotional states into our decision-making. And doing that is a skill that involves knowing how to work with our nervous system.

My guest is Jonny Miller, who makes his second appearance on the show. Jonny works with leaders and founders on burnout and how to regulate their nervous systems. He was a successful startup founder himself, but for the last several years has studied and practised nervous system mastery intensely, he has curated the most effective evidence-based practices he's found, and he leads a program called Nervous System Mastery.

On this episode, we cover breathwork and how to regulate our nervous system, how to work with our emotions, the body and its role in emotions and decision-making, why Johnny believes that the best decision-making is indeed emotional, making decisions in triggered states and how to avoid that, leadership, and so much more.

Show notes:

Jonny’s website

Jonny’s Nervous System Mastery programme

Jonny’s article “Why The Best Decision-Making is Emotional”

Curious Humans with Jonny Miller

Rory Sutherland

Iain McGilchrist

Confabulation

The Hour Between Dog and Wolf by John Coates

The Sports Gene by David Epstein

Patrick McKeown, The Oxygen Advantage – Ep. 137 of  our podcast

The Body Keeps the Score by Bessel van der Kolk

Non-sleep deep rest

_ _ _ _ _

Like what you heard?

Subscribe to The Decision-Making Studio Podcast

Sign up for our Decision Navigators Course

https://thedecisionmaking.studio/

Today we have Part One of my two part conversation with Fraser Battye. Fraser is a Principal at the Strategy Unit of the UK National Health Service the NHS, and the Strategy Unit provides analysis and strategic change expertise. As part of that role, Fraser provides expert guidance on decision-making. And this is a two-part conversation which covers a huge number of fascinating dimensions of decision-making. In Part One, we cover :

• balancing values with ethical considerations,
• integrating the two brain hemispheres into the decision-making process
• decision options as theories to test
• AI and decision-making, and a lot more there

Show notes:

• Fraser Battye on LinkedIn
• The Strategy Unit
• Iain McGilchrist's The Master and His Emissary

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Like what you heard?

Subscribe to All Things Risk wherever great podcasts are found: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast

Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio

Today, I have the pleasure of welcoming Nuno Reis to the show. I came across Nuno via his LinkedIn posts on uncertainty and in particularly around something called Bayesian Analysis or Bayesian Thinking. If you’ve never come across the term, Bayesian Analysis is the mathematical interpretation of probability. And it underpins so much of our world  - and increasingly so because many AI models are built on Bayesian Thinking.

Nuno is quite critical of how Bayesian Thinking is applied – because we can never remove the human from the numbers and the models. He says that an embrace of Bayesian Thinking – useful as it is, has become an unhealthy dogma. And – that resonated with me particularly because as I looked at Nuno’s background I saw someone saying this who is a trained mathematician with a PhD in Mathematics in String Theory and did a postdoc at Oxford. He worked in the financial sector during the Global Financial Crisis where he sees parallels now in the worlds of AI and related areas.

So, I invited him to the show and we had a great conversation that covers not only the topics of Bayesian Thinking, the financial industry, but also the topic of uncertainty, lots of philosophy and running.

I hope you enjoy it and find it insightful. Here is Nuno Reis.

Show notes:

Nuno on LinkedIn

Nuno’s free book, Beyond Luck

Bayesian Thinking

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Like what you heard?

Subscribe to All Things Risk wherever great podcasts are found: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast

Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio

Join our “Decision Navigators” course (May 21, 2024 cohort now open)!

In this episode, we talk about “tuning in” – into a noisy world so that we can make the best decisions possible. My guest is Nuala Walsh. Nuala is a best-selling author, an adjunct professor of behavioural science at Trinity College in Dublin, an independent non-executive director, a TEDx speaker and one of the 100 Most Influential Women in Finance. She is the author of the fabulous new book Tune In: How to Make Smarter Decisions in a Noisy World.

This conversation covers that and it is incredibly insightful and fun. Nuala shares several misjudgement ‘traps’ from her book – everything from ego to memory, power, identity and more. We also discuss whistleblowing, regret and so-called “deaf spots”. Nuala shares a number of solutions and ways forward so that we can start to “tune in” and make smarter decisions.

Show notes:

Nuala’s website

Tune In: How to Make Smarter Decisions in a Noisy World.

Nuala on Linkedin

Nuala’s Harvard Business Review article “How to Encourage Employees to Speak Up When They See Wrongdoing”

Innocence Project

Fred Clay – found innocent after 38 years for a murder he didn’t commit

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

Like what you heard?

Subscribe to All Things Risk wherever great podcasts are found: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast

Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio

Join our “Decision Navigators” course (May 21, 2024 cohort now open)!

Today, I welcome back my friend Alison Taylor to the show. Alison is a clinical professor at the NYU Stern School of Business and she is also the Executive Director of Ethical Systems. She spent the last two decades consulting with multinationals on anti-corruption, risk, human rights, stakeholder engagement, and ethics and compliance.

And she is the author of the fabulous new book, Higher Ground:  How Business Can Do the Right Thing in a Turbulent World. And one of the reasons why I think it's a fabulous book is because it opens up a long overdue grown-up conversation about business in society. Alison takes on and challenges a number of pithy myths and notions that this stuff is always easy, and that there are always win-wins all over the place. The reality is, it's quite hard.

And whether we're talking about employee unrest over racial injustice, justice, supply chains, climate change, or bribery and fraud, some of the things that may seem obvious and easy are actually anything but - doing the right thing can be very confusing, and there are lots of traps associated with it, including balancing interests, what ethics really means, how the concepts of transparency and “zero tolerance” can get in the way, and Alison shares insights on some of these challenges.

We also talk about trust, which stakeholders companies should listen to, how the book has been received (and it's been received incredibly well, but as you will hear, you'll be surprised to learn where some of the pushback has come from) and so much more. This is a great conversation!

Show notes:

Higher Ground: How Business Can Do the Right Thing in a Turbulent World

Alison’s website

Alison on LinkedIn

Alison’s work with the World Economic Forum on the Rise and Role of the Chief Integrity Officer

Alison’s article “How to build an ethics program for a new era”

BSR

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

Like what you heard?

Subscribe to All Things Risk wherever great podcasts are found: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast

Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio

Join our “Decision Navigators” course (May 21, 2024 cohort now open)!

Today, I welcome back Paula Reid to the show. Paula is known as the “Adventure Psychologist” because of her expertise in adventure psychology, which is all about surviving, coping, and thriving during challenge and uncertainty. So obviously, there are huge parallels to decision-making under or uncertainty and to many of my show's themes.

And we talk a little bit about that at the outset of this episode. However, beyond that, this one is focused particularly around Paula's adventure cycling across the Ukraine from Odesa in the south to Chornobyl in the north, about 400 miles or 600 kilometres. She did so to raise money for Siobhan's Trust, now called “HopeFull” a charity involved in delivering humanitarian aid to Ukrainians.

This one covers an awful lot of ground, from adventure psychology to the origins of Paula's work in Ukraine, to the insight on trauma and mental health. Paula is actually in Ukraine as this goes out.

Video version: https://youtu.be/k_CNfLoFpDY 

Show notes:

Paula’s website

Paula’s Ukraine cycling adventure

Siobhan’s Trust (now called “HopeFull”)

Paula’s fundraising page

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Like what you heard?

Subscribe to All Things Risk wherever great podcasts are found: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast

Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio

Today, I'm delighted to welcome Laura Fox to the show. Laura is a risk management professional and the founder of Canary Risk, a firm that helps clients with outsourced risk management and to navigate uncertainty. Canary Risk is a relatively new firm, and Laura took her own personal and professional risks to set it up, so we obviously talk about that. We also cover the state of the risk profession, hiring, cognitive diversity, values, and so much more.

Laura's enthusiasm, her curiosity, courage, and authenticity come through so well in this conversation, and my favourite part is towards the end when she talks about her own decision-making approach in deciding to set up Canary Risk. And I won't say too much here because I want you to listen to it, other than to say that it's a powerful reminder that in order to make quality decisions, we need to have clarity about what's It's important to us. And that's different for each one of us.

One-size-fits-all, never fits.

Link to video version of the podcast.

Show notes:

Canary Risk

Canary clinics

Laura on LinkedIn

Michele Wucker

Rogue Waves by Jonathan Brill

How to Measure Anything by Doug Hubbard

Decision Quality by Spetzler, Winter and Meyer

Christian Hunt

FAIR methodology

_ _ _ _ _ _

Like what you heard?

Subscribe to All Things Risk wherever great podcasts are found: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast

Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio

Sign up for our Decision Navigators course

Today, we discuss decision-making in international journalism, particularly when it comes to high-risk environments like conflict zones and natural disasters. My guest is Colin Pereira who was the Deputy Head of High Risk Security at the BBC and later Head of High Risk Security at ITN. Now he is a Director of the security consultancy HP Risk Management and a co-founder of Risk Pal, a risk assessment platform. Colin knows all about decision-making and risk to journalists in places like Ukraine and Gaza. 

He talks about that and the result is a fascinating conversation. We cover how decisions to deploy journalists are made, insights into covering the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, the future of international journalism including misinformation, as well as Colin's own decision-making as a start-up founder.

Show notes:

Colin on LinkedIn

RiskPal

HP Risk Management

John Schofield’s death

CNN’s Clarissa Ward

Committee to Protect Journalists

_ _ _ _ _ _ 

Like what you heard?

Subscribe to All Things Risk wherever great podcasts are found: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast

Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio

This is part 2 of 2 with Daniel Wagner on focuses on his fourth and latest book about China: The China Epiphany – Comprehending China’s Relationship With America and The Rest of the World.

Show notes:

Daniel Wagner

The China Epiphany

Decision-Making in the Polycrisis Era

_ _ _ _ _

Like what you heard?

Subscribe to All Things Risk wherever great podcasts are found: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast

Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio