The Bayesian Conspiracy – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Classic, season one adventure this week! Eneasz and Steven have a loosely structured conversation about the sequences’ value, the virtue of silence, scissor statements, and the value of philosophy.

LINKS
Cryonics is Free!
Dan Dennett – Where Am I?
The Virtue of Silence
Scissors Statements

00:00:05 – Pre-pre show Discussion
01:41:43 – Guild of the Rose
01:44:48 – Less Wrong Posts
02:05:57 – Thank the Supporter!

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.

Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast

LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:

Configurations and Amplitude

Joint Configurations

Distinct Configurations

Next Sequence Posts:

Where Philosophy Meets Science

Can You Prove Two Particles Are Identical?

Eneasz chats with TBC Discord member Delta about the cultivation of small online cultures. Get the full episode via our Patreon or our SubStack!

Spurred by comments from a couple of episodes ago, we wanted to make sure we didn’t misrepresent Matthew’s position and he agreed to come lay it out for us on the show. Check out the links below to dive in deeper.

LINKS
Bentham’s Newsletter
Bentham’s Bulldog on the Best Argument for God and also Miracles
Skeptoid #247 on The “Miracle” of Calanda and the Followup Episode
From Matthew’s Substack:
On Consciousness
On Eliezer Yudkowsky Being Wrong
On His Moral Non-Naturalism
On Beliefs Depending on Intuition

Eneasz’s longer post following up on this conversation

0:00:04 – Intro and The Best Argument For God
01:41:55 – Updates and Feedback
01:48:45 – Guild of the Rose
01:50:51 – Less Wrong Posts
02:13:04 – Thank the Patron

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.

Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast

LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:

Reductive Reference

Zombies! Zombies? (sort of)

Next Sequence Posts:

(TBD while we decide when we’re doing the Zombies episode)

Roe v Wade is going away. This sucks, but it’s not the end of the world.

Polls show most Americans support allowing abortion in the first weeks, banning it in the last trimester.

In state’s where it’s legal, one can have a self-managed abortion.
AidAccess is available to help. Services like ipostal1 will forward mail from other states.
Misoprostol is relatively easy to acquire from veterinary sources.

Eneasz is unhappy with Kamala Harris

1:08:13  LW posts
1:15:40  Thank the Patron

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

Also merch!

Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast

LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:

Guardians of the Truth

Guardians of the Gene Pool

Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:

Guardians of Ayn Rand

The Litany Against Gurus

Not long ago, Hawai’i was a constitutional monarchy. A lot of Hawaiian residents want that restored. Travis Don Kailikea Paradea takes us through what happened, and what’s going down now.

Recommended by Travis:

The Legends and Myths of Hawaii

The Rise and Fall of the Hawaiian Kingdom: A Pictorial History

Unfamiliar Fishes

Weblog of the acting government of the Hawaiian Kingdom

1:17:57  LW posts
1:25:44  Thank the Patron

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

Also merch!

Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast

LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:

Argument Screens Off Authority

Hug the Query

Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:

Guardians of the Truth

Guardians of the Gene Pool

Four Major AI Advancements In One Week!

New Scaling Laws for Large Language Models – essentially everyone has been training large language models with a deeply suboptimal use of compute

Googles Pathways Language Model explains jokes, and it can distinguish cause and effect and understand counterfactuals

DALL-E 2 makes amazing art on demand

Socratic Modeling system

1:39:51  LW posts

Also mentioned:

Overcoming Bias: AI Language Progress

What an actually pessimistic containment strategy looks like

Github Copilot

Anthropic AI

The Mind Killer

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

Also merch!

Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast

LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:

Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult

Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence

Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:

Argument Screens Off Authority

Hug the Query

(edit: misspellings is how we prove we aren’t AIs :P)

We address theoretical cryonics concerns, and discuss Guzey’s Theses On Sleep

3:15  Cryonics Concerns
49:21  Theses On Sleep
1:23:01  LW posts
1:50:16  Thank the Patron

Also mentioned:

LW Cryonics Probability Estimates guide

Our episode with Rudy Hoffman

Lifespan podcast

Limitless w Chris Hemsworth

Counter-theses on Sleep

Scott Alexander’s Sleep Is The Mate Of Death

Cryonics Insitute FAQ and info re transportation services

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

Also merch!

Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast

LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:

Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs

When None Dare Urge Restraint

The Robbers Cave Experiment

Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:

Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult

Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence

The Conspirators regroup to discuss if/how their views on monarchy have changed.

The full episode is available for our Patrons

Mentioned:

List of Current States With Monarchs

CGP Gray’s Rules for Rulers (Keys of Power)

Tears For Fears – Everybody Wants To Rule The World (warning – crappy 80s song)

We speak with Cornelius about this idea that Monachy is good because it can save us from populist fascism.

1:44:50 LW posts
2:14:45 Thank the Patron

Cornelius blogs at EsotericMusings.substack.com

Also mentioned:

Gray Mirror Substack

Democracy: The God that Failed by Hans-Hermann Hoppe

Jace’s counterargument is basically a link to Scott Alexander’s Anti-Reactionary FAQ

We did a “Reactions to this episode” mini-episode the following week

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

Also merch!

Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast

LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:

Fake Fake Utility Functions

Fake Utility Functions

Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:

Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs

When None Dare Urge Restraint

The Robbers Cave Experiment

We catch up on stuff and hit a few wandering targets.

0:01 Jace on Lithium
21:10 Feedback
26:05 LW posts
50:06 Nuclear Ukraine
59:43 Nuclear Us
1:05:30 Steven Tries To Get Us Cancelled

Lithium in drinking water linked with lower suicide rates

The Mind Killer – Vladimir Putin’s Small Dick Energy

Warcasting – ACX and Zvi

Razom Ukraine delivers medical supplies

Robert Wiblin leaving London

Potasium Iodide tablets

Eneasz Interviews Ada Palmer

Keep Your Identity Small

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

Also merch!

Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast, and the other podcast

LessWrong posts Discussed in this Episode:

Affective Death Spirals

Resist the Happy Death Spiral

Uncritical Supercriticality

Next Episode’s Sequence Posts:

Fake Fake Utility Functions

Fake Utility Functions