Talks from the Hoover Institution – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Tuesday, October 8, 2024 Hoover Institution, Stanford University

The Hoover Institution's Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative presents To War or Not to War: Vietnam and the Sigma Wargames on Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 2:00PM PT.

In 1964, America was slowly marching towards war in Vietnam. But what if that war could have been fought differently or avoided altogether? The Sigma Games, a series of politico-military wargames run by the Pentagon’s Joint Staff in the 1960s, sought to understand the unfolding conflict in Southeast Asia. These games, which involved top figures from the Johnson Administration—including National Security Adviser McGeorge Bundy, Air Force General Curtis LeMay, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Earle Wheeler—offer a chillingly accurate forecast of the war's potential trajectory.  Choose your character for an immersive experience. See the game unfold through the eyes of pivotal figures such as John McCone, Curtis LeMay, Earle Wheeler, and McGeorge Bundy in this interactive event. This event introduces the games and turns to a panel of historians to explore the Sigma Wargames, their prescient warnings, and why these early insights failed to shape the Johnson Administration’s decision-making, ultimately leading to one of America’s most costly conflicts.  The conversation, while a look into a key set of games at a historical moment in American foreign policy, says something more broadly at the impact of wargames on US foreign and defense policy as well as how influence is created (and hijacked) within strategic decision making.

​PANELISTS

H.R. McMaster is the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He is also the Bernard and Susan Liautaud Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute and lecturer at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business. 

McMaster holds a PhD in military history from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He was an assistant professor of history at the US Military Academy. He is author of the bestselling books Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World and Dereliction of Duty: Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Lies that Led to Vietnam. In August 2024, McMaster released his most recent book, At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House. His many essays, articles, and book reviews on leadership, history, and the future of warfare have appeared in The Atlantic, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, National Review, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and the New York Times.

McMaster is the host of Battlegrounds: Vital Perspectives on Today’s Challenges and is a regular on GoodFellows, both produced by the Hoover Institution. He is a Distinguished University Fellow at Arizona State University.

Mai Elliott is the author of The Sacred Willow: Four Generations in the Life of a Vietnamese Family, a personal and family memoir which was nominated for the Pulitzer Prize, and RAND in Southeast Asia: A History of the Vietnam War Era. She served as an advisor to Ken Burns and Lynn Novick for their PBS documentary on “The Vietnam War” and featured in seven of its ten episodes.  She recently contributed a chapter analyzing “The South Vietnamese Home Front” for the soon to be published Cambridge University Press 3-volume work on the Vietnam War.    Mai Elliott was born in Vietnam and grew up in Hanoi and Saigon.  She attended French schools in Vietnam and is a graduate of Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.  (She also writes under the name of Duong Van Mai Elliott).  

Mark Moyar is the director of the Center for Military History and Strategy at Hillsdale College, where he also holds the William P. Harris Chair of Military History. During the Trump administration, Dr. Moyar was a political appointee at the U.S. Agency for International Development, serving as the Director of the Office of Civilian–Military Cooperation. Previously, he directed the Project on Military and Diplomatic History at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, and worked as a national security consultant. He has taught at the U.S. Marine Corps University, the Joint Special Operations University, and Texas A&M University. He is author of eight books, of which the most recent is Masters of Corruption: How the Federal Bureaucracy Sabotaged the Trump Presidency. He holds a B.A. summa cum laude from Harvard and a Ph.D. from Cambridge.

MODERATOR

Jacquelyn Schneider is the Hargrove Hoover Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Director of the Hoover Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative, and an affiliate with Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation. Her research focuses on the intersection of technology, national security, and political psychology with a special interest in cybersecurity, autonomous technologies, wargames, and Northeast Asia. She was previously an Assistant Professor at the Naval War College as well as a senior policy advisor to the Cyberspace Solarium Commission.

Dr. Schneider was a 2020 winner of the Perry World House-Foreign Affairs Emerging Scholars Policy Prize. She is also the recipient of a Minerva grant on autonomy (with co-PIs Michael Horowitz, Julia Macdonald, and Allen Dafoe), a University of Denver grant to study public responses to the use of drones (with Macdonald), and a grant from the Stanton Foundation to study networks, cyber, and nuclear stability through wargames.

Dr. Schneider is an active member of the defense policy community with previous positions at the Center for a New American Security and the RAND Corporation. Before beginning her academic career, she spent six years as an Air Force officer in South Korea and Japan and is currently a reservist assigned to US Space Systems Command. She has a BA from Columbia University, MA from Arizona State University, and PhD from George Washington University.

Wednesday, October 9, 2024, 10:00 AM PT Hoover Institution | Stanford University

The Hoover Institution Center for Revitalizing American Institutions is proud to announce a new webinar series called "Reimagining American Institutions."

The Hoover Institution Center for Revitalizing American Institutions webinar series features speakers who are developing innovative ideas, conducting groundbreaking research, and taking important actions to improve trust and efficacy in American institutions. Speaker expertise and topics span governmental institutions, civic organizations and practice, and the role of public opinion and culture in shaping our democracy. The webinar series builds awareness about how we can individually and collectively revitalize American institutions to ensure our country’s democracy delivers on its promise.

The first session discusses Presidential Transitions with Brandice Canes-Wrone and Christopher P. Liddell on Wednesday, October 9, 2024, from 10:00 - 11:00 am PT.

The only thing we know for certain about the White House in January 2025 is that there will be a transition. Designing and operating an effective White House transition is essential to the success of any presidency—and to democracy in the United States. Former White House deputy chief of staff Christopher Liddell, who has been involved in three presidential transitions, will discuss concrete nonpartisan steps and recommendations that would significantly improve how the White House functions and thus help rebuild trust in one of our most fundamental institutions, the presidency.

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Brandice Canes-Wrone is the Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and Professor of Political Science at Stanford University. Canes-Wrone is the founding director of the Hoover Institution Center for Revitalizing American Institutions. Her current research focuses on representation and accountability, including projects on elections, campaign finance, and partisanship. She is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the American Academy of Sciences and Letters.

Christopher P. Liddell has held senior roles in politics, the private sector, and philanthropy. He was White House Deputy Chief of Staff during the Trump Administration, and has been involved in three presidential transition cycles, including the White House operational head of the transition to the Biden Administration, where he played a key role. In the private sector, he has been Chief Financial Officer of several major companies, including Microsoft and General Motors.

The Hoover Project on China’s Global Sharp Power held Hong Kong After the National Security Law on Tuesday, May 14 from 4-5:30pm PT. 

This event presented perspectives on the current political and civic climate in Hong Kong since the passage of the National Security Law on June 30, 2020 and the imposition of Article 23 on March 23, 2024. How have these developments fit into the broader history of the struggle for democracy in Hong Kong? What has changed in Hong Kong’s once vibrant civil society? What is the latest on the trials of pro-democracy activists? How have diasporic advocates constructed a Hong Kong political identity in exile?

Four panelists—Ambassador James Cunningham, the Chairman of the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong and former Consul General of the United States to Hong Kong and Macau (2005-2008); Sebastien Lai, a democracy advocate and son of jailed Hong Kong businessman and publisher Jimmy Lai; Sophie Richardson, the former China Director at Human Rights Watch; and Cherie Wong, the former leader of Alliance Canada Hong Kong (ACHK)—will discuss these issues and more in a conversation moderated by Hoover William L. Clayton Senior Fellow Larry Diamond.

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Ambassador James B. Cunningham retired from government service at the end of 2014.  He is currently a consultant, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, an adjunct faculty member at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School, and Board Chair of the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation. He served as Ambassador to Afghanistan, Ambassador to Israel, Consul General in Hong Kong, and Ambassador and Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations. Ambassador Cunningham was born in Allentown, Pennsylvania and graduated magna cum laude from Syracuse University.  He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Asia Society, the National Committee on US-China Relations, and the American Academy of Diplomacy.

Sebastien Lai leads the international campaign to free his father Jimmy Lai, the pro democracy activist and publisher currently jailed by the Hong Kong government. Having had international calls for his release from multiple states including the US and the UK, Jimmy Lai’s ongoing persecution mirrors the rapid decline of human rights, press freedom and rule of law in the Chinese territory.  Sophie Richardson is a longtime activist and scholar of Chinese politics, human rights, and foreign policy.  From 2006 to 2023, she served as the China Director at Human Rights Watch, where she oversaw the organization’s research and advocacy. She has published extensively on human rights, and testified to the Canadian Parliament, European Parliament, and the United States Senate and House of Representatives. Dr. Richardson is the author of China, Cambodia, and the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence (Columbia University Press, Dec. 2009), an in-depth examination of China's foreign policy since 1954's Geneva Conference, including rare interviews with Chinese policy makers. She speaks Mandarin, and received her doctorate from the University of Virginia and her BA from Oberlin College. Her current research focuses on the global implications of democracies’ weak responses to increasingly repressive Chinese governments, and she is advising several China-focused human rights organizations.  Cherie Wong (she/her) is a non-partisan policy analyst and advocate. Her influential leadership at Alliance Canada Hong Kong (ACHK), a grassroots community organization, had garnered international attention for its comprehensive research publications and unwavering advocacy in Canada-China relations. ACHK disbanded in November 2023. Recognized for her nuanced and progressive approach, Cherie is a sought-after authority among decision-makers, academics, journalists, researchers, and policymakers. Cherie frequently appeared in parliamentary committees and Canadian media as an expert commentator, speaking on diverse public policy issues such as international human rights, foreign interference, and transnational repression.  Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor, by courtesy, of political science and sociology at Stanford. He co-chairs the Hoover Institution’s programs on China’s Global Sharp Power and on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region.

The Hoover Project on China’s Global Sharp Power, Stanford’s Center for East Asian Studies, and Stanford's Department of History held What China Remembers About the Cultural Revolution, and What it Wants to Forget on Friday, May 10, 2024 from 4:00 pm - 5:30 pm PT in the George P. Shultz Building, Shultz Auditorium.

The devastating movement unleashed by Mao in 1966, which claimed around two million lives and saw tens of millions hounded, shapes China to this day. Yet in a country where leaders have long seen history as a political tool, the Cultural Revolution is a particularly sensitive subject. How does the Chinese Communist Party control discussion of the topic? And how has an era which turned the nation upside down been used to maintain the political status quo?

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Tania Branigan writes foreign policy editorials for the Guardian and spent seven years as its China correspondent. Her book Red Memory: The Afterlives of China’s Cultural Revolution won the Cundill History Prize 2023 and was shortlisted for the Kirkus non-fiction prize, the Baillie Gifford prize and the British Academy Book Prize for Global Cultural Understanding. It was named as one of the Wall Street Journal’s ten best books of 2023 and TIME’s 100 must-read books of 2023.

Glenn Tiffert is a distinguished research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a historian of modern China. He co-chairs Hoover’s project on China’s Global Sharp Power and directs its research portfolio. He also works closely with government and civil society partners around the world to document and build resilience against authoritarian interference with democratic institutions. Most recently, he co-authored Eyes Wide Open: Ethical Risks in Research Collaboration with China (2021).

The Hoover Institution held Strengthening Trust With India: Implications of the 2008 US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement on  May 6, 2024 from 6:30 pm - 8:00 pm in Hauck Auditorium, David & Joan Traitel Building.

The conversation was between key figures who shaped modern US-India relations through the 2008 US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement, an emblem of strategic US-India partnership and a major innovation in sustainable energy to power India’s future. The engaging dialogue celebrates this important achievement and explores the future of US-India cooperation.

​

FEATURING

Condoleezza Rice – Tad and Dianne Taube Director and Thomas and Barbara Stephenson Senior Fellow on Public Policy   66th US Secretary of State (2005-2009)  

M.K. Narayanan – National Security Advisor of India (2005-2010)  

Shivshankar Menon – Visiting Professor  Ashoka University

David C. Mulford – Distinguished Visiting Fellow  US Ambassador to India (2004-2009)

Nick Burns – US Ambassador to China  Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs (2005-2009)  

Eric Garcetti – US Ambassador to India

MODERATOR

Anja Manuel – Executive Director, Aspen Strategy Group Special Assistant to the Undersecretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns (2005-2007)

​

Tuesday, April 16, 2024   Hoover Institution | Stanford University

The Hoover History Working Group held a seminar on Cliodynamics of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration with Peter Turchin on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 from 1:30 pm - 3:00 pm PT.

The book is available for purchase here.

ABOUT THE TALK

Social and political turbulence in the United States and Western European countries has been rising over the past decade. Our research, which combines analysis of historical data with the tools of complexity science, has identified the deep structural forces that work to undermine societal stability and resilience to internal and external shocks. Here I look beneath the surface of day-to-day contentious politics and social unrest, and focus on the negative social and economic trends that explain our current “Age of Discord.” One of the most important, but little appreciated, such hidden forces is a perverse “wealth pump” that, under certain conditions, begins to transfer wealth from the “99 percent” to “1 percent.” If allowed to run unchecked, the wealth pump results in both relative impoverishment of most people and increasingly desperate competition among elites. Since the number of positions of real social power remains more or less fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. In historical terms, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub–Vienna, Research Associate at University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical macrosociology, economic history, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. A founder of the field of Cliodynamics, his books include End Times (2023) and Ultrasociety (2016).

A Post-9/11 Veteran Town Hall Discussion with veterans Jason Galui, Colin Frances Jackson, and Felicia Pinckney and Veteran Fellowship Program Fellow John Moses led by Hoover Fellow Jacquelyn Schneider.

Veterans’ experience abroad imparts a deep empathy for the world around them, with significant implications for the local communities to which they return. How does the post 9/11 veteran experience of combat or service abroad, and the profound relationships built between servicemembers and foreign allies and partners, impact how veterans view their responsibility to others when they return home? More specifically, for this generation of veterans, how do relationships built in Iraq and Afghanistan influence veterans’ advocacy with local and federal policies? How does the experience of the post 9/11 all-volunteer force manifest in democratic ideals at home?

March 7, 2024 – Chelmsford Unitarian Church, Chelmsford, MA.

Featuring

Jason Galui | Director for Veterans and Military Families, George W. Bush Institute: USA Veteran

Colin Frances Jackson | Chairman, Strategic and Operational Research Department, US Naval War College; USAR

John Moses | Hoover Veteran Fellow; Co-Founder, Massachusetts Afghan Alliance; Retired SFC, USA

Felicia Pinckney | Program Manager, Network Development for Home Base program, Massachusetts General Hospital; USA veteran

Moderated by Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider | Hoover Fellow, post-9/11 Veteran, USAFR

A Post-9/11 Veteran Town Hall Discussion with veterans Gil Barndollar and Robin Johnson, Veteran Fellowship Program Fellows Matthew Brown and Claudia Flores led by Hoover Fellow Jacquelyn Schneider.

One of the greatest challenges for the All Volunteer Force is how to reintegrate a professional, volunteer military back into civilian society.  For many previous generations, this re-integration was supported by veterans organizations, like the Veterans of Foreign Wars, which created a space for veterans to share experiences as they re-started their civilian life.  However, the post 9/11 veteran generation has new challenges both in re-connecting with civilian life and in creating bonds between post 9/11 veterans that create positive societal impacts.  The rise of social media as well as the diversity and the volunteer nature of this generation means that Vietnam-era structures and institutions designed for veterans may not work for building social bonds between 9/11 veterans and their communities.  How does the post 9/11 veteran build social capital among each other?  How do they connect with their communities?  How can the post 9/11 veteran experience build social cohesion not only between veterans and civilians but also in the broader civil society?  

Tuesday, February 20, 2024 – Denver, CO

Featuring Gil Barndollar | Senior Research Fellow, Center for the Study of Statesmanship; USMC veteran

Matthew Brown | Hoover Veteran Fellow; President and CEO, Chimney Trail; USN Veteran

Claudia Flores | Hoover Veteran Fellow; Policy and Planning Director, Virginia Department of Veteran Services; USN Veteran

Robin Johnson | CEO, Best Medicine Brigade; President, HEAL*ARIOUS; USA veteran

Moderated by Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider | Hoover Fellow, post-9/11 Veteran, USAFR

A Post-9/11 Veteran Town Hall Discussion with local veterans Cathy Cohn, Mikhail Venikov, Justin Adney and Veteran Fellowship Program Fellow Michael Wendler led by Hoover Fellow Jacquelyn Schneider, and featuring a special welcome by the Hon. Jackie Speier and Susan Manheimer, the former San Mateo Chief of Police.

The post 9/11 veteran is not defined by one campaign or conflict. That can be something that often divides this generation. However, the remarkable diversity of conflicts and crises in which this generation served created a veteran generation with experience not only in fighting wars, but also building schools, curing diseases, fighting fires, and providing humanitarian assistance in the face of natural and manmade disasters. This means the post 9/11 veteran generation is returning home with extraordinary skills to lead and serve within their local communities. How does the post 9-11 veteran experience translate to public service? What is the role of the guard and the reserve in creating a bridge between military and public service, especially for the post 9-11 veteran generation?

Thursday, December 14, 2023 – Elks Lodge, San Mateo, CA

Featuring Justin Adney | Firefighter/Engineer, Santa Clara County Fire Department, Marine Reserve Cathy Cohn | Navy Veteran, Science Educator Mikhail Venikov | Army Veteran, Officer, San Mateo Police Department; Founder & CEO, RangerRoad Michael Wendler | Hoover Veteran Fellow, Judge, County of San Mateo

Moderated by Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider | Hoover Fellow, post-9/11 Veteran, USAFR

With special welcome by Susan Manheimer  | Chief of Police (Retired), San Mateo Police Department Jackie Speier | Former US Representative for San Mateo and  South San Francisco

One of the keys to China’s global rise has been its strategy of deploying sovereign wealth on behalf of state power. Since President Xi Jinping took office in 2013, China has doubled down on financial statecraft, making shrewd investments with the sovereign funds it has built up by leveraging its foreign exchange reserves. Sovereign Funds tells the story of how the Communist Party of China (CPC) became a global financier of surpassing ambition. Dr. Liu offers a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of the evolution of China’s sovereign funds, including the China Investment Corporation, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and Central Huijin Investment. Dr. Liu shows how these institutions have become mechanisms not only for transforming low-reward foreign exchange reserves into investment capital but also for power projection. Sovereign funds are essential drivers of the national interest, shaping global markets, advancing the historic Belt and Road Initiative, and funneling state assets into strategic industries such as semiconductors, fintech, and artificial intelligence. In the era of President Xi, state-owned financial institutions have become gatekeepers of the Chinese economy. Political and personal relationships with prestigious sovereign funds have enabled Blackstone to flourish in China and have fueled the ascendance of private tech giants such as Alibaba, Ant Finance, and Didi.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Zongyuan Zoe Liu is Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Her work focuses on international political economy, global financial markets, sovereign wealth funds, supply chains of critical minerals, development finance, emerging markets, energy and climate change policy, and East Asia-Middle East relations. Dr. Liu is the author of Can BRICS De-dollarize the Global Financial System? (Cambridge University Press) and Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances its Global Ambitions (Harvard University Press). Dr. Liu completed her Ph.D at the Edwin Reischauer fellow at School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University. Prior to joining CFR, Dr. Liu was an instructional assistant professor at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government and Public Service in Washington, DC, where she taught courses on global economy, economic statecraft, and Chinese foreign policy.