State of Tel Aviv, Israel Podcast – Détails, épisodes et analyse

A favorite State of Tel Aviv guest, Ya’akov Katz, returns today to dig deeply into the dramatic collapse of the al-Assad regime in Syria and what it all may mean going forward for Syria, Israel, the Middle East, and the world. Following more than 50 years of brutal rule, the despotic rulers were deposed with lightning speed and skill by a group of rebels led by Ha’yat Tahrir al Sham—or HTS for short—an Islamist army led by a former al Qaeda loyalist who is now poised to become the putative leader of Syria. Whereas the joy over the fall of Bashar al-Assad is clear, it may be premature. HTS is really a conglomeration of numerous jihadist groups in Syria that have united over their common goal to depose the Assad regime. In areas in the north of Syria that have been controlled by rebels for more than a week, there are reports that Sharia law has been imposed. Jubilation, in this situation, is better contained for a while until we see how things settle out. Ya’akov and I do what we do—and get into the various regional and global superpowers with strong stakes in this conflict—and, of course, what it may mean for Israel. It has been a very busy few days on the northern border with Syria, where Islamist rebels came disturbingly close to the border with Israel. For now, that risk factor seems to be under control. Finally, we get into quite dramatic developments regarding the possibility of a hostage deal being negotiated. It’s way too early to allow our hopes to be raised… but we can’t help ourselves. Always looking for that silver lining. Thanks for being here and listening.

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Podcast Notes

* First broadcast by the Syrian rebels from the broadcasting center in Damascus.

* Video footage of Syrian Prime Minister being taken to the Four Seasons Hotel, Damascus, by rebel forces

* Article published in the Daily Telegraph about the personal background of HTS leader., Abu Mohammed Julani. (spelling varies)

* Hamas video of hostage Matan Zangauker, released on Saturday, December 7, 2024.

Yaakov Katz is an Israeli-American author and journalist. Between 2016 and 2023, Yaakov was editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post where he continues to write a popular weekly column.

He is the author of three books: “Shadow Strike - Inside Israel’s Secret Mission to Eliminate Syrian Nuclear Power,” “Weapon Wizards - How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower,” and “Israel vs. Iran: The Shadow War.”

Shadow Strike was recently adapted into a docudrama by Reshet Media and his books have been published in a number of languages including English, Hebrew, Czech, Polish, Japanese and Mandarin.

His next book – tentatively titled “Precision Strike” – is scheduled for publication by St. Martin’s Press in the Spring of 2025.

Yaakov served for close to a decade as the paper's military reporter and defense analyst and was a lecturer at Harvard University where he taught an advanced course in journalism. He also served as Israel correspondent for Jane’s Defence Weekly.

Prior to taking up the role of editor-in-chief, Yaakov served for two years as a senior policy adviser to Naftali Bennett during his tenure as Israel’s Minister of Economy and Minister of Diaspora Affairs.

In 2013, Yaakov was one of 12 international fellows to spend a year at the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University.

Originally from Chicago, Yaakov has a law degree from Bar Ilan University. He lives in Jerusalem with his wife Chaya and their four children.

A favorite State of Tel Aviv podcast guest, Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus joins us today. A former IDF spokesman with a knack for distilling the complexity of the Middle East, our discussion with Conricus today is longer than usual. That is because - even for this impossibly volatile region - these last few days have been exceptional. A massive insurgency against the rule of Syrian President Bashir Assad was launched in recent days, seemingly out of nowhere. Clearly backed by Turkey, the rebel forces are using American military equipment and advancing quickly on their final target—Damascus. Should the regime falter or fall, then the implications for Israel and the region are significant. We go deep into the weeds on this development before shifting to the West Bank. Always a center of unrest, Judea and Samara have been building to a furious boil, and Conricus worries that Israeli leadership is not paying adequate attention to this area. Jewish extremists have been engaged in unprovoked violence against Arabs, and the Shin Bet security service has been finding significant stashes of advanced weapons to be used by terrorist organizations. None of this bodes well for domestic stability and security. And, finally, of course, there is the Gaza Strip. Whereas hostilities on the northern front seem to be abating with the newly negotiated ceasefire with Lebanon, there is no sign of the conflict slowing in the Gaza Strip, in spite of the very significant degradation of Hamas’ fighting capabilities and weapons arsenal. Israelis are beginning to ask what, exactly, is going on there. Former IDF Chief of Staff and Minister of Defense, Moshe (Bogey) Ya’alon, made some very sharp comments on Sunday about the IDF’s conduct in the Gaza Strip, causing a kerfuffle in Israel and the international media. After more than a year of exceptionally long and grueling service, 25% of the reservists being called up for duty, often for the third time in a year, are refusing to show up. They are losing confidence in IDF leadership, and their lives are in turmoil. And all Israelis—including a majority of Likud supporters—are astonished and furious that 101 hostages remain in Hamas captivity. PM Netanyahu has run out of excuses to delay making their freedom a priority. The question is – will he? A deep and no-holds-barred dive. Have a listen…

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Podcast Notes

* This article gets into the controversial comments made on Sunday by Moshe Ya’alon, which are discussed in the podcast.

Jonathan Conricus served in the IDF for 24 years, four of them as spokesman during the intense 11 days of the Guardian of the Walls Operation between Israel and Hamas. Now a reserve officer, he focuses on American media. He was born in Jerusalem to a Swedish father and an Israeli mother and spent his formative years in Sweden.

Nadav Eyal is one of Israel’s top political analysts and journalists and we are delighted to have him join the State of Tel Aviv for today’s deep dive into the life and death of Yahya Sinwar. We focus on the impact that his death may have on the possibility of an agreement being negotiated for the release of the 101 hostages still being held by Hamas, many of whom we know are dead. The rescue of the hostages is of critical importance to Israel for so many reasons, among them that “to leave no one behind” is central to the ethos and cohesion of the state. Should this fundamental value not be seen to be honored by Israeli citizens, the impact would be extreme. Nadav expertly peels the layers of this complex situation that touches on Israeli domestic politics, regional geopolitics and, of course, the western alliance and America. I was keen to speak with Nadav after reading his column in the Israeli newspaper, Yediot Achronot (largest circulation print newspaper in Israel), on the weekend, in which he touched on many of the issues we discuss here. Have a listen.

Podcast Notes

Nadav Eyal is among Israel’s top journalists and is a past recipient of the Sokolov Prize, the equivalent of a Pulitzer Prize for journalists in Israel. He is the author of several books as well.

This year, he is living in New York City with his family and has been appointed Senior Research Scholar in the Faculty of International and Public Affairs; Adjunct Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia School of International and Public Affairs.

Further detail about Nadav Eyal may be found here.

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Tomorrow morning, the Israeli Supreme Court will convene to hear what may be its most important case ever. The coalition government led by PM Benjamin Netanyahu passed a law on July 24 that eviscerates the power of the Court to review a broad class of government decisions. Many Israelis believe that this unprecedented government action will erode democracy, as there are no other checks or balances on the actions of the Knesset. The government takes the position that it can act as it sees appropriate in light of the fact that it controls a majority of the Knesset. This constitutional crisis – in a country with no formal constitution, paradoxically – has wreaked havoc in Israel since January and is likely to escalate following this momentous hearing. Speaking with State of Tel Aviv to explain the layers of complexity – and why the coalition government is so determined to prevail – is Professor Yaniv Roznai, a constitutional law expert at Reichman University who has been deeply involved in these issues throughout. This podcast gets into the guts of the legal issues and what may lie ahead.

Jason Greenblatt is one of those people who found himself in the right place at the right time and seized the moment. Having worked closely with Donald Trump as his in-house commercial real estate lawyer, he jumped at the opportunity to serve President Trump in the White House as a special adviser. Along with Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner and long-time lawyer, David Friedman, Greenblatt was engaged intensively in negotiating the breakthrough Abraham Accords; the Agreements that demonstrated that middle east peace was multi-faceted and did not require a final resolution of the Israel-Palestinian conflict. With a front row seat in the capitals of the region for close to three years, Greenblatt – with his colleagues – achieved an agreement which changed the geopolitical reality of the middle east. Additional countries have since joined the original group and there will surely be more to follow. The benefit to the region – which has an enormous market bloc and diversified economy – positions the middle east to emerge in ways similar to the EU. Greenblatt talks about the “real” Donald Trump, who he admires as a leader and boss, the good days, the bad days and conjectures as to what may come. A brilliant speaker and deep thinker, time listening to Jason Greenblatt just flies by. Enjoy.

Father of three daughters, husband, former elite combat reservist and top tier employment law lawyer, Yaron Kramer has also taken on the role of near full-time activist since January, 2023. He was among the founders of the grassroots protest organization – Brothers and Sisters in Arms – who recognized early on that the judicial reform agenda of the coalition government in Israel was an assault on liberal democracy.

I have been meeting and speaking with Kramer – as everyone calls him – since the early days. In fact, he was among the organizers of the very controversial and attention-grabbing barricade of the Jerusalem offices of Kohelet Policy Forum. We covered that event in depth in podcast episode 5.

Since those early days – when Kramer spoke of the urgency of the moment and the need to be “creative” and push the envelope – things have only gained momentum. Kramer reflects on the past 8 months and is girded for even more intense domestic conflict in the near future. But he – like so many Israelis – will not be discouraged. These are some of the bravest, fiercest and most resourceful warriors, anywhere. And they are turning their talents to saving liberal democracy in Israel.

“Let’s say the truth,” says Kramer. “Netanyahu is weak. Netanyahu is not healthy. Everybody can see it.”

I spoke with Kramer just before he left for a long August vacation with his family. He was in a reflective mood, but fiery. This conversation is a fascinating peek inside the mindset of a top leader of the civilian protest movement opposing judicial reform in Israel. His depth, passion and determination will impress, even if you do not agree.

And me? I’m hiding out here, somewhere north of Toronto. Most beautiful place in the world in August. Enjoy the last of summer!

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Among the many consequences being discussed relating to the coalition government’s judicial reform initiative is the fact that this significant policy shift exposes many senior Israeli defense, security and political leaders to criminal prosecution at the International Criminal Court. Expert Israeli international lawyer, Daniel Reisner, explains why the concern is real and even gets into one case where such an arrest was imminent but thwarted at the last minute. “The intention is out there and the potential for catastrophe is there…But anyone saying that there is no legal risk is just plainly wrong.” To date, the robustness of the Israeli judicial system – in terms of independence and sophistication – has served as a degree of “defense” for those who may be vulnerable. Supporters of judicial reform – including the Kohelet Policy Forum – seem intent on discrediting this assertion as being baseless. If the world spun on an axis of true openness and equality, that might be so, because on a purely legal academic basis, the ICC has no jurisdiction with respect to such matters. But everything is political and imperfect, including the ICC.

 Tune in for this lively and informative discussion.

Today we get into the the coming showdown between the IDF and the extremist coalition government led by PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Last Friday, 169 senior, former defense and security professionals, placed a full page ad in a major Israeli newspaper, calling on the government to halt the judicial reform in order to further damage Israel’s preparedness for war or any form of regional conflict. They are not blowing smoke. Repeated assessments indicate that Israel’s security situation is dire. The instability caused by the judicial reform initiative is exacerbating matters to the point that the country’s security may be in serious danger. (Ret.) Lt. Col. Peter Lerner chats with State of Tel Aviv to unpack how unprecedented such a public statement is and what it all means.

In this second part of our discussion with Professor Karnit Flug, former Governor of the Bank of Israel (2013-18) and currently Vice President of Research at Israel Democracy Institute and a professor at Hebrew University, we discuss the reaction of Wall Street and others to the passage in the Knesset of the Reasonableness Law on July 24. I spoke with Professor Flug on August 6, after she had an opportunity to assess the initial reactions and speculate as to what may follow. She is hoping that the coalition government not only pauses this very damaging judicial reform but that it totally changes its approach, before it’s too late. Not only is there a serious and negative economic impact but many people are pulling up stakes and leaving Israel or not returning from academic and other positions abroad. Listen up, PM Netanyahu!

In this first part of a series, Professor Karnit Flug, Governor of the Bank of Israel from 2013-18, takes us on a tour de force, analyzing the impact of the judicial reform overhaul program on the economy in Israel. She is currently VP Research at Israel Democracy Institute and Professor at Hebrew University. Flug has a unique perspective, having worked at the Bank of Israel for close to 30 years. Throughout her career she worked closely with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and shares her candid insights as to how the man has changed over the decades. She no longer recognizes the once thoughtful, rational Bibi who always made decisions – even if one disagreed – in the best interest of the state and on a rational basis. We touch briefly on her career arc at the outset – which is extraordinary for a woman in the male-dominated field of economics, and go on to cover so much, including the very sensitive topic of ultra-orthodox demands for increased economic entitlements. Professor Flug is extremely worried about what the future will bring. This first discussion was on July 20, just days before the Reasonableness Law was passed in the Knesset, setting off more fierce and widespread protests throughout Israel. Everything in Israel is uncertain now and markets do not respond well to uncertainty. It shows – in a weakened shekel and so much more. We get into US-Israel relations, the whole nine yards.

I suggest you take the time to read an article published on our website, stateoftelaviv.com, on November 15, 2022, entitled: “Fat Man, Thin Man. Will Netanyahu Upend his Economic Legacy?” The piece provides important background and is a really fascinating read. We’ve removed the paywall for a limited time for our listeners.

State of Tel Aviv is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.