PIWORLD audio investor podcasts – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss a slightly more normal week - Larry Fink and Jamie Dimon are talking up the UK market just as capital is being freed-up from the Mag Seven.

The UK small-cap space is delivering strong performance from stocks able to deliver not-worsening performance...we discuss Watkin Jones, Sanderson Design Group and IG Design as well as global shipping heavyweight Clarkson.

Jeremy highlights that lower energy prices could help pressure Putin towards peace, as well as potentially saving Labour's bacon - if they can wean themselves off Net Zero....

Next week is all about interest rate decisions...Trump vs Powell back in the headlines.

Progressive's Jeremy McKeown recently spoke with David Dredge of Convex Strategies in Singapore.

David is widely regarded for his deep understanding of risk and for delivering his insights in a highly engaging and entertaining manner.

He dedicates his time to analysing sources of risk and developing strategies designed to mitigate their impact. His approach involves embracing convexity—purchasing pockets of inexpensive volatility as a form of insurance against adverse outcomes in uncertain environments.

When should investors adopt this strategy? According to David, the answer is simple: always—just like insuring a house.

David holds strong and often contrarian views that challenge the foundational assumptions of Modern Portfolio Theory, which he refers to as "Sharpe World." In his view, this framework wrongly equates risk with volatility.

He brings these ideas to life through vivid anecdotes and illustrative examples that highlight the risks investors unknowingly take in markets shaped by Sharpe World principles and operated by what he calls "Rational Accounting Man."

Jeremy and Gareth react to Donald Trump's tariff pronouncements - major downward moves in US equities, and increased risk of a US slowdown.

But there is  some hope that the UK could navigate these choppy waters cleverly - and even a small proportion of the capital currently being reallocated could make a huge difference to the UK markets.

UK stock news from Gear4Music, Pharos, tinyBuild, Intuitive Investments, Peel Hunt and Alphawave. 

Next week - in addition to early responses to the US tariffs - we get Chinese inflation data, plus both inflation and sentiment survey info from the USA.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Progressive analysts George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on small and mid-cap tech news. George has been looking at some resilient and upbeat news from smaller less well-known players SRT, Xaar and Microlise and is still recovering from the not too surprising news that Computacenter has not delivered its 20th year of earnings growth.   Gamma results have encouraged Ian and whilst enthused by Judges Scientific as a company he is disappointed by the analyst meeting – where did all the research go?   The leads to reflection on Ian’s recent blog comparing listed company micro-cap funds and VC funds, which suggests that something has gone wrong with the small-cap due-diligence / investment decision ‘stack’.  This has knock on impacts across small and mid-cap.  Is more research the answer?

DF Capital Holdings CEO, Carl D'Ammassa provides an overview of the group's results for the year ended 31 December 2024.

Carl D'Ammassa, CEO 00:24 Introduction 02:10 FY24 Review 04:57 Strategy update 06:45 Looking ahead

DF Capital was founded in 2016 to support the working capital needs of manufacturers and UK dealers. Today, having received full authorisation as a bank in September 2020, we work with over 90 manufacturers and over 1,250 dealers in the leisure, commercial and powersports sectors. In 2023, we provided over £1.2bn of distribution and inventory finance across these sectors.

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss some home truths about the UK economy - Rachel Reeves has reassured bond investors for now, but the low-growth, stubborn-inflation structural problems persist.

Ironically, Trump's erratic tariff-wielding tactics could drive capital AWAY from the USA, to the benefit of China, Germany and even the UK equity market.

And this week, a couple of UK stocks with "reasonable" news - Xaar and SRT Marine - saw 25%+ price moves suggesting that many stocks are priced for pessimism.  Gamma Communications delivered a solid 2024, and we think investors are more wary than they should be of German expansion.

Next week sees Chinese confidence data, European inflation and crucially US jobs...as well as 2 April seeing Trump's tariffs (probably....) come into effect.

Headline grabbing Trump noise from Washington has died down but with concerns around tariffs, and issues in the Ukraine and the Middle East still not settled, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the common theme this week which has been central bankers and companies talking about trade related uncertainty. Overall the forecasts of GDP growth in the major economies in the world are coming down, but inflation expectations remain heightened. Big US corporates such as Nike and FedEx cited trade uncertainty as a major issue and it’s been referenced increasingly in UK RNS announcements.  With US focus seemingly now more on longer term interest rates than the level of the US stock market, overriding market sentiment is one of capital flight from the US to the rest of the world. A survey documenting the capital allocation intentions of the world's largest asset managers listed the biggest one month allocation away from US equities ever recorded. Some has gone to Germany and the wider European market, some has gone into China and there's also been a big allocation into US treasuries. Although there's no direct evidence of much of this capital finding its way into the UK market yet, Jeremy and Gareth remain hopeful!  In the UK, Gareth talks about Beeks (BKS) and FDM who both had results. Employment data this week was pretty much as expected. However UK government borrowing data was running ahead of expectations,which doesn’t bode well for next week's Spring Statement and the brewing government dispute about whether they should continue to look to raise taxes or to reduce government spending. Next week we have UK inflation data on Wednesday, and on Friday we get US PCE data (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure).   Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

The Pebble Group CEO, Chris Lee and CFO, Claire Thomson present the group's results for the year ended 31 December 2024, followed by a Q&A session.

Chris Lee, CEO 00:16 Introduction 01:21 Market opportunity 03:30 Investment case 04:02 FY24 Highlights

Claire Thomson, CFO 06:02 FY24 Financial highlights 06:23 Business models 07:27 Income statement 08:06 Balance sheet 08:34 Cash flow 09:13 Cash utilization

Chris Lee, CEO 10:29 Facilisgroup overview 11:40 Facilisgroup - Market structure & positioning 13:16 Facilisgroup - Financial and operational metrics 15:45 Facilisgroup - Organic growth 16:49 Facilisgroup - Strategies

Claire Thomson, CFO 17:47 Brand Addition - Overview 18:11 Brand Addition - Market structure & positioning 20:01 Brand Addition - Financial & operational metrics 20:14 Brand Addition - Strategies

Chris Lee, CEO 21:01 ESG 22:38 Group outlook

25:13 Q&A

The Pebble Group is a provider of technology, products, and related services to the global promotional products industry, comprising two differentiated businesses, Facilisgroup and Brand Addition, focused on specific areas of the promotional products market.

Facilisgroup: Providing an end-to-end order processing system, combined with a proprietary operating method, market network and community support to growth orientated promotional products distributors in North America

Brand Addition: An end-to-end creative branded merchandise agency that helps global brands build culture, awareness and meaningful connections with their customers, employees and communities

This week, Jeremy and Gareth mull over the macro situation - the US economy seems to be slowing (but inflation persists) while Europe, especially Germany, has been bullied into spending more than ever.

The UK, and arguably Europe, haven't yet seen much benefit from the outflow of capital from the MAG Seven, but remember, the whole German market cap is not dissimilar to the value of Microsoft - so there's a lot more to go for.

UK companies discussed include STV, Forterra, Van Elle, Secure Trust Bank, Cakebox, Care REIT, Hornby and Science Group/Ricardo.

Next week the big news is around interest rate decisions - in the USA, here in the UK and in Japan. Let’s hope for no surprises (especially from Tokyo). 

Secure Trust Bank CEO, David McCreadie provides an overview of the group's results for the 12 months to 31 December 2023.

David McCreadie, CEO 00:29 Introduction 00:49 Vehicle Finance Sector challenges 02:03 Strategic goals & targets 04:31 2024 performance highlights 06:32 Strategic initiatives 08:39 Outlook and conclusion

Founded over 70 years ago, Secure Trust Bank is a leading retail deposit-funded specialist bank operating in four core markets: retail finance, vehicle finance, real estate finance, and commercial finance. Secure Trust Bank’s management has simplified the business through the sale/exit of non-core businesses, repositioning the loan portfolio towards lower-risk loans, and focusing on reducing operating costs to drive efficiency (Project Fusion).