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| Titre | Date | Durée | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parallel Mike: The Red Alert – America’s Financial Instability and the World’s Response | 30 Aug 2024 | 01:04:40 | |
Tom welcomes back, Parallel Mike. Mike is the host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares finance, geopolitics and personal liberty content. The conversation begins with a thought-provoking discussion about the global ramifications of the United States' current monetary and fiscal instability. As the world's leading power with its reserve currency, military might, and cultural influence, American financial or fiscal upheaval could ignite kinetic, cyber, and psychological conflicts worldwide.
Mike elucidates the intricate relationships between national power structures and influential financial entities. He issues a grave warning concerning the potential consequences if America faces a significant financial crisis or recession, stressing the significance of acknowledging societal drivers fueling long-term currency devaluation and consumerist attitudes.
Mike scrutinized the distribution of funds during the post-pandemic economic relief package, with a considerable portion allocated to the wealthy class but many individuals receiving stimulus checks. The ensuing savings resulted in inflation that didn't fully manifest until later, leading to price spikes in luxury sectors like watches and yachts. Now spent, these markets are witnessing declines.
Mike asserts that the global economy, especially Europe, is undergoing a significant downturn, marked by widespread corporate layoffs and potential employment consequences. Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Fed meeting suggests an upcoming rate cut, which could impact the upcoming presidential election. However, rate cuts alone may not revive the economy, potentially leading to additional monetary stimulus.
Mike expresses concerns about escalating interest rates jeopardizing bank balance sheets. He is critical of pervasive accounting deceptions in the financial sector, cautioning of a potential implosion if public trust is eroded. Gold has historically served as a protective shield against collapsed financial systems by major players holding gold reserves as insurance.
Mike endorses value investing in the current market and advises against impending downturns leading to liquidity crises and widespread sell-offs. He suggests maintaining a portion of ones portfolio for speculation and emphasizes understanding risks in investment strategies. Despite the risks, he also points out historical instances where commodities delivered multiple cycles of returns following initial liquidity booms and inflations. He concludes by advocating investments beyond mere financial assets, such as health, relationships, and community.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:58 - Global Dependency on U.S.6:25 - Saviour Syndrome?12:33 - Pass The Debt Parcel20:39 - Deficits & Delinquencies27:24 - Saving The System33:56 - Banks & Higher Rates38:25 - Possible Solutions47:09 - Riskiest Assets57:58 - Russia in Contrast1:01:55 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
American financial instability could spark global conflicts: Mike warns of potential consequences.
Mike highlights pandemic wealth distribution issues and how they drove inflation in goods afteerwards.
Mike discusses implications of Jerome Powell's dovish stance, potential economic downturn, and the role of gold in protecting assets.
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYt8UcqG2wvkehnmiF_9AkwTwitter: https://twitter.com/parallel_mikePatreon: https://patreon.com/parallelsystemsBook Reference: https://thegreattaking.com/
Mike is a precious metal's investor, organic farmer and host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares content relating to finance, geopolitics and personal liberty. | |||
| Doomberg: The Future of Energy – The Unwavering Power of Reliability Over Hype | 29 Aug 2024 | 00:54:43 | |
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Doomberg, author of the Doomberg Substack, for a discussion on the science hype cycle and its impact on investments. The science hype cycle refers to the persistent overhyping of scientific innovations, such as solid state batteries, fusion, room temperature superconductors, and cancer cures, which often take decades to materialize. Despite progress, solid state batteries face inherent challenges due to safety concerns and complexity. Samsung's recent announcement of a silver-intensive solid state battery may boost silver demand but diminishes its near-term relevance for investors.
Next, the conversation shifts to the automobile industry, focusing on plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). PHEVs reduce regional gasoline consumption efficiently, but China's competitive edge in manufacturing affordable cars, driven by access to intellectual property, lower labor costs, and less stringent regulations, poses a significant challenge. Consumers favor affordable PHEVs over luxury BEVs, believed to be saturated in demand.
The discussion touches upon the carbon footprint of battery production for electric vehicles and the importance of recycling them. The focus should be on addressing pollution rather than just reducing carbon emissions. China's lenient environmental regulations give it an edge in industries like magnesium production.
Doomberg advocates continued investment in nuclear, natural gas, and existing hydroelectric power due to their reliability and suitability. He dismisses fusion reactors as unnecessary distractions from proven nuclear technologies. Small modular reactors and thorium reactors hold potential but lag behind large modular reactors, which offer known designs and predictable supply chains.
The conversation addresses the Russia-Ukraine conflict's implications for energy markets, Russia's role as a nuclear superpower, and the consequences of NATO involvement. Doomberg expresses concerns about the conflict's outcome and its impact on gold as a neutral reserve asset amidst geopolitical tensions and the bifurcation of the world into G7 and BRICS. He concludes by advocating for thoughtful consideration of military conflicts and their consequences, and introspection about the wisdom of engaging in war.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:08 - Science Hype Cycle4:19 - Battery Lifespan, & Silver8:30 - EV Costs, China, & Hybrids13:37 - Western EV Demand14:49 - Carbon Use Comparisons17:03 - Pollution & Carbon22:13 - Efficiency & Reuse26:56 - West GRID Solutions30:00 - U.S. Election Outcomes35:06 - New Energy Tech37:35 - Fusion Technology?39:30 - SMR & Thorium41:05 - Nuclear Proliferation44:50 - Russia & Ukraine48:30 - Global Bifurcation & Gold50:52 - Dollar & Military Spending52:53 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Science innovations often face long development timelines and are overhyped. Examples include solid state batteries and fusion reactors.
China's competitive edge in automobile manufacturing poses challenges for electric vehicle markets.
Continued investment in reliable energy sources like nuclear, natural gas, and hydroelectric power is advocated.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergTWebsite: https://doomberg.substack.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems. | |||
| Mel Mattison: Part Two – Navigating Tech, Politics, and Power in Times of Crisis | 05 Aug 2024 | 00:53:05 | |
In Part two of our discussion with Mel Mattison we explore the role of the securities entitlements during financial crises. This is a subject brought to light by David Rogers Webb in 'The Great Taking.' In times of crisis, corporations implement backup strategies, like plan B for drastic situations where the insolvency of major financial institutions might trigger the verge of collapse for derivatives. In the event a financial entity fails to honor winning bets in derivative markets, creditors can seize securities in brokerage accounts as collateral. This scenario, referred to as 'The Great Taking,' elicits concerns over asset confiscation, affecting not only stocks and bonds but also tangible assets like property and vehicles.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) advocates for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). CBDCs preserve the fractional reserve system yet provide benefits such as instantaneous settlement and seamless cross-border transactions. Central banks perceive alternative payment systems like stablecoins as competition due to their existence outside the banking sector.
Russia's move to distance itself from Western financial institutions and prioritize gold as a reserve asset signifies a break from the US dollar system and a possible resurgence of gold as a monetary metal. Central banks have resumed buying gold after decades of disposal, possibly contributing to an increase in its value. Gold provides advantages over digital assets like Bitcoin due to its untraceability and absence of intermediaries or complex accounting on the blockchain.
Mattison underscores the significance of possessing assets outside the present financial framework with minimal risk. Tangible assets such as real estate and precious metals like gold, silver are favored alternatives for maintaining worth during a dysfunctional system. The speaker expects continued expansion in the stock market's speculative phase but anticipates instability upon the onset of the crisis. He suggests farmland or open land as a more secure alternative to residential property. Despite his confidence in Trump, he acknowledges that Trump alone cannot remedy the fundamental issues. The political landscape is intriguing with various forces influencing events.
Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction0:28 - Securities & Great Taking7:00 - Bail-In for Banks9:29 - CBDC Plans & Implementation14:30 - Russia & Banking System18:18 - Solutions22:00 - Crypto & Privacy Attacks28:05 - Protecting Wealth33:55 - Optimism & Trump40:00 - Religious Symbolism44:23 - Palantir & Peter Thiel48:48 - Concluding Thoughts51:37 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode:
Concerns around seizing of assets as collateral when a financial entity defaults on derivative bets.
Central banks consider adopting CBDCs for benefits like instant settlement and seamless cross-border transactions, while viewing stablecoins as competition. The Lummis-Gillibrand Act mandates stablecoin storage at Federal Reserve Depository Institutions for data access.
Central banks are resuming gold buying and Russia prioritizes it as a reserve asset, contributing to its increased value due to untraceability and absence of intermediaries.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.MelMattison.com/QuozTwitter: https://twitter.com/MelMattison1LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/melmattison/
Mel Mattison is a writer, investor, and financial services veteran. Leveraging over twenty years’ experience in the realm of high finance, he brings real-world authenticity to his fictional narratives. Mel combines this insider knowledge with a critical eye toward the economic forces that shape all our lives. With a knack for deconstructing jargon and making the complex understandable, he sheds light on the sometimes dark and confusing corners of finance. Mel holds an MBA from Duke University and studied creative writing at Loyola University Chicago. His recent novel, Quoz: A Financial Thriller, | |||
| Mel Mattison: Part One – Social Security and Medicare Funds Are in Collapse | 01 Aug 2024 | 00:57:41 | |
Tom warmly receives Mel Mattison as his latest thought provoking guest. Mel, a seasoned finance professional, boasts a traditional finance background and an unyielding interest in financial history. His proficiency encompasses venture capital-backed firms, major asset managers, and self-study on intriguing topics like the monetary history of the United States and central banks.
Mel's novel, "Quoz: The Annihilation of the Global Economic Order," is a financial thriller that delves into intricate themes, such as sovereign debt bubbles, globalist manipulation of institutions like central banks, and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)'s pivotal role.
The BIS, established in 1930 to manage reparations payments between Germany and the Allies, has since transformed into a dominant global financial institution. It assumed critical functions during World War II, mediating transactions between Axis powers and the Allies, and set the stage for the Euro and European Central Bank (ECB).
Despite its substantial power, the BIS maintains a veil of secrecy and enjoys exclusive benefits such as immunity from prosecution. Central bank leaders convene bimonthly at the BIS headquarters in Basel to deliberate monetary policy without disclosing minutes or agendas. The BIS's involvement in central bank digital currencies, like Project Helvica and Project Jura, remains an enigma due to its lack of transparency.
Mattison explores the Federal Reserve's coordinated rate cuts with global central banks and ponders the market consequences when discrepancies between central bank actions emerge. He advocates for the significance of comprehending labor market indicators, fiscal stimulus, and inflation's impact on economic expansion.
Mel raises doubts about the yield curve inversion's dependability as a recession harbinger due to recent Federal Reserve manipulations and excessive short-term debt issuance. Entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare are edging towards insolvency, posing potential repercussions like higher interest rates, increased debt, and inflation around 2027-2028.
Mel deliberates on the potential fallout of a debt market crisis on pension funds and alternative assets, such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin. He anticipates volatility in the equity market during this critical juncture and proposes that an extreme situation could involve the U.S. Treasury revaluing gold against the dollar in an emergency maneuver, drastically altering financial markets.
Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Mel's Background6:35 - BIS Global Role13:12 - Immunity Vs. Incentives15:16 - Central Banks & US Rates21:20 - C.B. Magic Hats25:55 - Rate Controls & Signals33:10 - Inversions & Recession36:08 - Yellen Debt Issuance40:30 - Entitlement Programs47:10 - The Entitlement Cliff50:24 - Blowout Debts & Pensions54:33 - Treasury Gold
Talking Points From This Episode:
Mel Mattison discusses BIS's pivotal role in global finance, its secrecy, and potential impact on digital currencies.
Mattison raises concerns over yield curve inversion's reliability as a recession indicator amid Federal Reserve manipulations.
Mel explores the implications of debt market crises on pension funds and alternative assets. Bitcoin.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.MelMattison.com/QuozTwitter: https://twitter.com/MelMattison1LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/melmattison/
Mel Mattison is a writer, investor, and financial services veteran. Leveraging over twenty years’ experience in the realm of high finance, he brings real-world authenticity to his fictional narratives. Mel combines this insider knowledge with a critical eye toward the economic forces that shape all our lives. With a knack for deconstructing jargon and making the complex understandable, he sheds light on the sometimes dark and confusing corners of finance. Mel holds an MBA from Duke University and studied creative writing at Loyola University Chicago. | |||
| Michael Pento: An Insolvent Nation with Inflation Problems | 31 Jul 2024 | 00:34:33 | |
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, from Pento Portfolio Strategies. Pento argues that due to a massive debt-to-revenue ratio and persistent deficits, the nation is insolvent. He linked this to the Federal Reserve's negative real interest rates since 2002, which led to a $7 trillion increase in its balance sheet, tightening bank lending standards, and an inverted yield curve for a record length of time. Pento expresses concerns over credit bubbles, particularly private debt, that have reached alarming levels, but credit spreads remain quiescent.
Pento shares his economic framework, consisting of five sectors based on the rate of change and second derivative of inflation. He emphasizes assessing the economy's health or distress, asset prices, debt levels, and the yield curve for each sector. Michael believes that when the yield curve normalizes, stocks should be sold as it signals Fed acknowledgement of economic problems and impending earnings plunge.
Michael expresses concern over the Federal Reserve prioritizing banks and Wall Street over the American people, highlighting its failure to address inflation impacting the middle class. He advocates for holding interest rates steady instead of cutting them and warned of a dollar depreciation against other currencies and hard assets like gold during deflation. He suggests overweighting bonds and bond proxies in disinflationary periods and emphasized the importance of gold as a safe haven.
Michael's model identifies specific sectors as favorable for gold, while suggesting being out of commodities during certain periods. He highlights energy's importance during growth periods. He criticizes passive investing and advocates active management with a clear framework. Lastly he notes, rising long-term rates and increasing costs could impact the housing market and banking system.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:31 - An Insolvent Nation4:39 - Credit Spreads & Outlook9:34 - Five Sector Model11:07 - Yield Curve Inversion15:08 - Equity Crash @ Cuts?18:10 - Election & Dollar23:07 - Model & Sectors25:26 - Energy & GDP26:42 - Fall Data Outlook28:45 - Labor Revisions30:33 - Good Money Managers33:04 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Michael Pento believes the U.S. is insolvent due to high debt-to-revenue ratio and persistent deficits, leading to tight lending standards and an inverted yield curve.
Pento's economic framework includes five sectors based on inflation rate change, emphasizing sector health, asset prices, debt levels, and yield curves.
Michael criticizes the Fed for prioritizing banks over people, advocates for gold as a safe haven during deflation, and encourages active management.
Guest Links:Website: http://pentoport.comE-Mail: mpento@pentoport.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network. | |||
| Kevin Freeman: Breaking Down the Coming Debt Crisis – Five Undeniable Truths About Money | 29 Jul 2024 | 01:11:17 | |
https://twitter.com/PalisadesRadio/status/1818042370237104270
https://rumble.com/v58yted-kevin-freeman-breaking-down-the-coming-debt-crisis-five-undeniable-truths-a.html?mref=13ry0f&mc=c28tm
In this radio episode, host Tom Bodrovics invites Kevin Freeman to the show. Kevin is a Co-Founder of the NSIC, Host of The Economic War Room, Bestselling Author and Expert on Economic Warfare. Kevin shares his passion for restoring a monetary system based on gold and silver, known as 'pirate money.' He argues that historically, societies have recognized gold and silver as money until recently when they began treating them as commodities or investments.
Kevin then delves into economic warfare, explaining it as the use of economic means to undermine adversaries or enemies. He emphasizes its significance in today's world where economic power is wielded aggressively and sometimes arrogantly by both foreign and domestic enemies. He believes that elites aim to enslave economically through dependency on them.
The conversation then turns to the unsustainability of the debt-based monetary system, which Kevin sees as a form of enslavement due to the constant need to pay off debts. He presents five truths about America's current situation, starting with its unsustainable debt path. With federal debt at $35 trillion and rapidly growing, the interest alone costs between $1.4 to $1.75 trillion annually, nearly equal to half of all personal income tax receipts in the U.S.
Furthermore, Kevin explains the structure of the U.S. national debt, particularly its short maturities leading to substantial increases in interest payments despite potential lower interest rates. He criticizes both the Trump and Biden administrations for missing opportunities to issue longer-term debt during near-zero rate periods.
Mr. Freeman expresses concerns about the U.S.'s role as the issuer of the world's reserve currency and its use in economic wars. The potential danger lies in nations forming alternative trading blocks and removing the dollar's reserve status, which could weaken the U.S. economy significantly. He also discusses the historical precedent of using debt to influence foreign policy and inflation's disproportionate impact on the poor, leading to wealth disparity and potential social unrest.
The conversation then touches upon the potential weaponization of currencies by governments, specifically central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which offer governments control over how their currency is used. Kevin advocates for the use of gold and silver as legal tender to maintain purchasing power and avoid potential taxation like fiat currency.
Lastly, Kevin discusses concerns about the Great Reset and its potential threat to individual freedoms through debt enslavement. By 2030, the World Economic Forum plans to implement changes such as controlling food through CBDCs and open borders. The speaker encourages asking questions and seeking truth in the age of information, criticizing attempts to suppress opposing perspectives and manipulate science for control.
Kevin concludes by advocating for a pirate money solution involving individuals holding their money in gold and silver at the state level, which cannot be interfered with by federal authorities based on court cases supporting real money. He encourages spreading awareness about the problem and solution.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Pirate Money3:18 - Economic Warfare7:40 - Debt Enslavement11:49 - Debt Unsustainability13:57 - Bonds & Long Term Debt16:34 - Borrowing Vs. Printing17:54 - Debt Servicing & Spending20:13 - BRICS Vs. the Dollar24:00 - Dollar Weaponization28:34 - Inflation & Wealth Gap33:39 - Fed's Purpose & Tool38:19 - Exporting Inflation43:15 - Inflation & CBDCs50:50 - Metals Legal Tender?55:23 - Great Reset Threat58:38 - Truth & Perspective1:02:19 - Currency Solutions1:10:26 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x. | |||
| Byron King: Gold Investing – What Can Go Right, What Can Go Wrong | 25 Jul 2024 | 01:17:36 | |
Tom welcomes a new guest, geologist and newsletter writer Byron King for a discussion on the culture of deception and misdirection in society. Byron, an Ivy League-educated geologist and retired U.S. Navy officer, shares his thoughts on society's shift from rigor to oblivion due to the loss of clear enemies post-Cold War and the emergence of self-proclaimed elites with skewed realities.
The conversation covers various topics including lawfare, its application against political adversaries, and the expansion of heightened surveillance and arrests. They also discuss the geopolitical conflicts affecting the world, with implications for the US and Canada, and the historical context of the US dollar's dominance in global trade and its role in inflation.
Byron expresses concern over potential consequences if the US faces a crisis managing these conflicts, which could result in economic instability and further inflation. They disucss the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate policy on the economy and gold market, as well as the increasing disparity between asset-owning versus non-asset-owning populations.
Byron also explores the undervaluation of mining industries, particularly those producing rare earth elements, due to cultural factors such as reliance on Chinese producers with low costs. Central banks' increased gold buying, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical events is also discussed. The world will continue to need base metals like high-grade copper which will necessitate the mining of lower-grade ores and increased prices.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Reality & Distortions7:49 - Lawfare & Politics13:23 - Truth, Media, & Events21:15 - Honest Money & Living Well27:24 - The West & Inflation37:38 - Golden Awareness42:57 - Fed's Direction Now45:30 - Manufacturing & Rural54:05 - EV Demand & Rare Earths1:00:06 - Mines & Timelines1:07:19 - Conference Takeaways1:14:28 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Society's shift from rigor to oblivion due to loss of clear enemies and rise of self-appointed elites.
Increased demand for gold due to global de-dollarization and geopolitical conflicts, leading to potential economic instability.
The undervaluation of mining industries and the importance of investing in reputable companies despite political influences.
Guest Links:Website: https://paradigmpressgroup.com/
Byron King has first-hand expertise and connections in important industries like commodities and defense. He literally goes the extra mile to bring you perspectives you won’t find anywhere else.
His insights have been featured on MSN Money, Marketwatch.com, Fox Business News, CNBC’s Squawk Box, Larry Kudlow, Glenn Beck and PBS’s NewsHour. He has also been published in the Financial Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal.
Byron graduated from Harvard University with a degree in geological sciences. He then went to work as a geologist for Gulf Oil Exploration and Production. Next came a tour as a flight officer for the U.S. Navy. At one point, he was an aide to the United States Chief of Naval Operations. After leaving active duty, Byron began practicing law.
In 2002, he started corresponding with the staff of The Daily Reckoning. His work was featured so frequently he was often called an “unpaid contributor.” When he officially joined the staff, he began criss-crossing the globe in search of the world’s best mining investment opportunities.
Even now Byron spends much of his time away from home, checking out remote exploration sites, mines, rigs and plants to bring you a first-hand account of almost every investment opportunity he recommends.
His way of breaking down technical language into everyday English has earned him a lot of fans. And you can count on him to give you the clearest picture of companies that make the world work. | |||
| Chris Macintosh: We are Facing a 1 in 100-Year Financial Rebalancing | 24 Jul 2024 | 01:05:13 | |
Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest to the show Chris Macintosh. Chris is the founder of CapitalistExploits and a seasoned hedge fund manager with experience in seven countries. They engage in a discussion revolving around ongoing recalibrations and rotations in capital markets, focusing primarily on the deindustrialization of the West and financialization as significant shifts over the last few decades. Chris underlines the disconnect between Western nations' massive market caps and their actual production capabilities. He also discusses short-term changes such as the increasing dominance of few companies in the S&P 500, accounting for a substantial percentage of market capitalization, and passive capital flows from Western economies affecting investing, particularly smaller companies.
Chris expands on the potential consequences of a mere 10% rebalance in Western markets, emphasizing instability arising from massive sovereign debts, derivative markets, and potential debt cycle inflation. He highlights the anomaly of passive capital flows toward large cap stocks and the importance of asymmetry in investing for low downside risk with significant upside potential. Chris mentions automation selling during a downturn and seeking contrarian sectors as an alternative investment strategy.
The conversation covers geopolitical risks, including the possibility of 'great taking' or conflict, having assets outside the financial system in counter-cyclical, counter-jurisdictional asset classes like food, shelter, agriculture, precious metals, and maintaining a long-term perspective. Chris discusses the importance of education, problem-solving skills, diversification, and taking action to deal with fear. He prefers Latin and South America for living and investing. He advocates for banking in multiple jurisdictions and investing in cash-flowing businesses.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:07 - Economic Overview & Trends14:30 - Derivatives & Rebalancing24:14 - A Silent Bull Market27:59 - Liquidity Analysis31:30 - Great Taking & Risks36:05 - Cloudstrike & Russia39:08 - War & Capital Shifts42:57 - Politics Stability & Capital49:07 - Interesting Jurisdictions54:19 - Banking & Diversification58:24 - Fear, Volatility & Action1:04:13 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The West's massive market caps vs production capabilities create instability due to debt and derivative risks.
The impact of passive capital flows on investing, with unloved sectors offering potential protection.
Preparing for a rotation away from overvalued equities and towards undervalued sectors.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/capitalistexpWebsite: https://capitalistexploits.at
Raised in Southern Africa, Chris Macintosh has since lived & invested from 7 different countries. After a career at top tier investment banks such as JPM, Lehman, Robert Flemmings and Invesco, Chris became tired of corporate life, and has since built and sold multiple million dollar companies, overseen $35m into venture capital, all the while investing full time, and managing his own and private client wealth. | |||
| Mikkel Thorup: Protecting Your Investments & Liberty By Seeking Greener Pastures | 23 Jul 2024 | 01:00:27 | |
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Mikkel Thorup for an updated discussion on the increasing trend of moving and investing offshore due to negative developments in Western Countries like Canada and the USA. Mikkel highlights how political statements from leaders and the media could fuel the desire to leave these countries. He underscored the urgency of having a backup plan, given the potential increases in fees and taxes that could make leaving increasingly expensive.
Mikkel expressed concerns over the rising costs of moving overseas and the increasing investment requirements for obtaining residency in some countries. He acknowledged the appeal of countries with attractive taxation, weather, and good economies. Mikkel advocates for individual freedom and the importance of making good decisions for ones families and investments.
He lauded the efforts of the new presidents of El Salvador and Argentina in turning around their economies through libertarian policies, but remains cautious. Mikkel discusses his appreciation for various cultures, economic drivers, food, water, energy independence, and geopolitics when considering countries for expats.
Italy and Ireland are amongst top countries for individuals with ancestry to apply for citizenship or residency due to their relatively straightforward processes. He shared real-life examples of clients obtaining Italian and Irish citizenship through ancestral connections. Mikkel discussed various aspects of international investment and taxation, including the process of withdrawing investments from Canada or the US without triggering capital gains taxes. How one goes about selling shares, relocating, and purchasing property overseas.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:16 - Expat Trends2:37 - Canada Exit Fees?5:02 - Moving & Expenses6:40 - Residency Costs11:55 - Residency Programs14:05 - Having a Backup Plan16:16 - El Salvador & Argentina22:16 - Attitudes & Lessons24:28 - Argentina & BRICS26:40 - Passports & Border Control30:38 - Panama Residency33:06 - Mexico Outlook & Economics37:06 - Western Europe Concerns40:17 - Passport by Ancestry43:55 - Citizenship by Invest.49:00 - Citizenship by Birth55:10 - Moving Your Investments58:37 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Conference: https://www.expatmoneysummit.comWebsite: https://expatmoney.comTwitter: https://x.com/ThorupMikkel
Mikkel Thorup, is the CEO and founder of Expat Money, and is a renowned expat consultant for high-net-worth individuals. He specializes in tax mitigation, securing second residencies and citizenships, and constructing diverse foreign investment portfolios. Born as an autodidact, Mikkel dropped out of school at 15 and has since lived and traveled extensively across over 110 countries. He's the author of several best-selling books on expat living and hosts the Expat Money Show podcast. Mikkel founded the Expat International School of Freedom & Entrepreneurship in 2021, an online learning platform for children. A keynote speaker at many international events, he's also a philanthropist, serving on various boards and supporting a Ugandan non-profit for teen mothers. Mikkel is a devoted husband and father of two, with a passion for travel. | |||
| Peter Grandich: The BRICS are Changing the Landscape for Gold Investors | 19 Jul 2024 | 00:50:49 | |
Tom welcomes returning guest Peter Grandich from Peter Grandich and Company for a discussion on current economic risks and market trends. Grandich expresses concern over the markets' failure to acknowledge major issues. He argues that gold markets show some recognition of these issues, while the stock market remains complacent. With experience through three financial crises, Grandich warns that this situation is more severe due to political division and lack of meaningful solutions from Congress or the Fed. He criticizes the Fed's role in exacerbating debt through money creation during the pandemic.
Peter discusses societal shifts towards consuming beyond means and their impact on happiness, the stock market, and the economy. He traces these trends to the influence of television and the internet, which have convinced people that they need more money for happiness. They note that some of the happiest people have little or no wealth while some wealthy individuals are unhappy. He criticize politicians' approach to economics compared to household management, resulting in societal issues like increasing consumer debt and a culture of living beyond it's means.
Grandich discusses potential risks to the markets, including political instability leading up to the U.S. election and the impact on foreign investors divesting from American securities. He emphasizes gold's importance as a store of value in the new economic structure and advocates for capital preservation due to perceived market overvaluation. Grandich encourages individuals to build a "financial ark" through self-sufficiency, preparing for potential financial hardships, and diversifying portfolios with stocks, bonds, and gold. He also mentions the junior resource market as an area of potential undervaluation for companies searching for metals and base metals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:31 - Markets & Uncertainty2:12 - Fixing Things & Politics5:40 - Exponential Debt Crises8:30 - Mass Media & Marketing10:57 - Historic Comparisons13:55 - Fed Perception/Reality16:58 - Dot Plots & Fed Cuts19:26 - Political Turmoil Risk23:59 - BRICS Alliance & Gold28:20 - Building a Financial Ark32:19 - Defining Bubbles35:56 - Anti-Bubble Opportunities38:52 - Thoughts on Uranium41:27 - Base Metals & Miners46:35 - Crash Scenarios & Gold49:20 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Economic risks include political instability before the U.S. election and market complacency. Gold is seen as a safe store of value.
Societal shifts towards consuming beyond means impact happiness, debt levels, and stock markets.
Political division, lack of meaningful solutions from Congress or the Fed exacerbate economic concerns.
Guest Links:Website: https://petergrandich.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/PeterGrandich
Peter Grandich entered Wall Street in the mid-1980s with neither formal education nor training. Within three years, he was appointed Head of Investment Strategy for a leading New York Stock Exchange member firm. He would hold positions as Chief Market Strategist, Portfolio Manager for four hedge funds, and a mutual fund that bore his name. His abilities have resulted in hundreds of media interviews, including Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Financial Post, Globe and Mail, US News & World Report, New York Times, Business Week, MarketWatch, Business News Network and dozens more. In addition, he has spoken at investment conferences worldwide, edited numerous investment newsletters, and was one of the more sought-after financial commentators.
Grandich has been a member of the National Association of Christian Financial Consultants, The New York Society of Security Analysts, The Society of Quantitative Analysts, and The Markets Technician Association. He is an active supporter of Athletes in Action, the Fellowship of Christian Athletes, Good News International Ministries, and Catholic Athletes For Christ. | |||
| Alasdair Macleod: This Gold Move Has Only Just Started | 18 Jul 2024 | 01:05:07 | |
Tom welcomes back Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research at GoldMoney to discuss the current trends in the gold market. The conversation covers various aspects of the gold market, including the role of the dollar, increased demand for physical gold, particularly in China, and the impact on the COMEX market.
Macleod explains that gold is hitting new highs due to the dollar's decline rather than an increase in gold prices per se. He attributes this trend to government policies that maintain large budget deficits. A Trump second term is likely to continue weakening the dollar. Chinese households are turning to physical gold as an alternative to stocks and property, leading to increased demand and potential drainage of physical liquidity from the West.
In terms of the COMEX market, Alasdair points out that open interest has significantly increased, particularly due to neutral spread activity and arbitrage. He notes that this market could become more overbought and warns about potential mark-to-mark losses among the swaps, which may lead to further paper demand and a 'bear squeeze' on these institutions.
Alasdair discusses the impacts of the Comex, London, and Shanghai exchanges on metals markets. There is a drainage of physical gold from Western markets, particularly London, due to arbitrage opportunities. Chinese banks are expected to increase their gold reserves, and there's also a resurgence in demand for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
They discuss the risks associated with credit and the potential for a crisis in the financial system, particularly regarding the clearinghouse and shares. Alasdair advises protecting oneself by holding physical assets like gold and silver and ensuring sufficient supplies during the initial stages of a potential collapse.
Lastly the effects of BRICS alliance is discussed and their plans to back their currencies with physical gold and silver. Although an attempt was made last year, it did not succeed due to opposition from China and India. Russia is expected to bring this issue up during the upcoming BRICS meeting in Astana in October, proposing that 40% of the new trade settlement currency would be backed by gold. Despite doubts about execution, having significant gold reserves and accumulating substantial quantities of gold for years could significantly impact the global economy if successful.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:49 - Gold Market Shifts3:43 - Gold & Dollar Demand11:37 - Comex Open Interest16:25 - Categories at Comex21:53 - West Vs. East Arbitrage24:16 - ETF's & Other Demand28:32 - Producers & Margins30:25 - Interest Rates & Bank Risk37:00 - Trump Economic Implications40:12 - Political Solution Unlikely44:26 - G7 Nations & Debt Problems46:42 - Ownership & Debt Systems54:20 - BRICS Progression1:01:54 - Lessons & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold prices are hitting new highs due to the dollar's decline, leading to increased demand for physical gold, particularly in China.
The COMEX market is experiencing significant increase in open interest due to neutral spread activity and arbitrage opportunities, potentially leading to overbought conditions and mark-to-mark losses for swaps.
Gold markets are witnessing a drainage of physical gold from Western markets, primarily London, as well as increased demand from Chinese banks and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
Russia's may proposed in the BRICS alliance to back new trade settlement currencies with 40% gold.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacleodFinanceWebsite: https://goldmoney.comResearch: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/
Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.
Alasdair Macleod started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, | |||
| Lawrence Lepard: Gold Stocks are the Best Performing Asset Class When Inflation Hits like the 70s | 17 Jul 2024 | 01:01:04 | |
Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard from EMA2 Equity Management Associates for a discussion on economic trends and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Lepard expresses concerns about the Fed's potential acceptance of a higher inflation rate due to rising U.S. interest expenses and a large budget deficit. Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, is also contemplating rate cuts to support employment levels and government finances amidst ongoing inflation and uncertainty in unemployment data and Gross Domestic Product growth figures. Larry and Tom contemplate potential rate cut timelines, the possibility of a shift in Fed tactics, concerns over financial crises, and the potential impact of political events on the Fed's decisions before the upcoming election.
The conversation shifts overseas to Japan's economic situation, with Lepard predicting that gold will reach new all-time highs due to Japan's reliance on imported oil and its shift towards purchasing oil in yen instead of dollars, potentially leading to a surge in gold demand and higher prices. Larry anticipates a decade-long bull market for gold and silver stocks as they are expected to double or even triple in value within the next 12 to 18 months due to higher metal prices, increased earnings, and potential dividends or stock buybacks.
Larry expresses his investment preferences, focusing on companies that pay dividends or hold precious metals as treasury assets. He also emphasizes the importance of responsible capital management following lessons learned from previous cycles. Despite concerns about mergers and acquisitions for large companies during this period, Larry suggests they might pay higher prices later in the bull market instead of seizing opportunities at low prices now.
Larry discusses his current projects, which include completing a quarterly report and writing a white paper on why sound money is crucial to solving the world's problems. He proposes making gold, silver, and Bitcoin legal tender, abolishing the Federal Reserve, letting banks fail if they engage in risky practices, and eliminating the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as steps towards progressing towards sounder money.
Time Stamp Reference0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Rate Expectations3:05 - Employment Factors5:06 - Something Will Break11:00 - Recent Political Events16:35 - Mathematical Certanties20:14 - Bonds & Long-Term Demand23:32 - Stock Concentration26:00 - Crack-Up Boom Bust?27:35 - Global Problems30:55 - Wealth Destruction33:03 - Silver or Gold First?37:22 - Miners & Valuations41:05 - Dividends in Gold?42:53 - Finding Opportunity46:23 - Mexico & Mining?49:53 - Germany & Bitcoin Sales53:15 - Report & Whitepaper56:52 - Spreading Awareness1:00:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Larry discusses Fed's potential acceptance of higher inflation due to US interest expenses, budget deficit & Jerome Powell's rate cuts.
Lepard predicts a decade-long gold bull market due to Japan's yen oil purchases, higher prices, increased earnings.
Larry suggests focusing on dividend companies or precious metals; proposed steps towards sounder money, including making gold legal tender.
Guest Links:Germany Bitcoin Sale: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-sells-off-final-bitcoin-064941448.htmlNewsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTWebsite: http://www.ema2.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. | |||
| Garrett Goggin: Gold Miners are on the Brink of Exciting Returns | 28 Aug 2024 | 00:43:42 | |
Tom welcomes Garrett Goggin, a seasoned financial analyst with expertise in trading and a strong emphasis on alternative assets like gold and silver. Goggin expresses his views on the current economic climate marked by the U.S. dollar's value erosion due to inflation and escalating debt. He regards gold and silver as reliable stores of value for future decades.
Goggin further explores the significance of the yield curve inversion, which he believes signals an impending recession and market correction. In past instances, gold has doubled in value following a yield curve inversion and a subsequent recession. He anticipates that this trend will continue, possibly leading to another gold price doubling. Institutions are predicted to invest in the gold sector as its performance continues to improve.
The conversation touches on the gold market's current dynamics, including the growing interest from investors that is not reflected in GLD shares outstanding but is visible in the growth of silver miners. The demand for silver exceeds production and existing stocks, potentially leading to a deficit and an escalating price surge.
Central banks' role in gold prices and their correlation with rate cuts during economic downturns are also discussed. Goggin predicts that as inflation persists and economies decelerate, gold will remain a valuable hedge against economic turmoil.
Garrett shares his philosophy for constructing a portfolio in gold and silver, focusing on analyzing companies rather than historical ratios or charts, emphasizing the significance of high-grade deposits and competent management. He advocates investing in inflation protection machines like royalties due to their fixed costs, minimal management, and potential for exploration success without being impacted by cost inflation. Smaller explorers and developers that can generate significant value through successful drill holes are also suggested.
The conversation delves into the characteristics of mining companies that make them attractive takeover targets, with a focus on high-grade projects, low cost operations, and cash generation. Royalties are highlighted for their exploration upside and potential to significantly increase shareholder value over time.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Background & Alt Assets2:05 - Market/Economy Overview3:44 - Recession & Market Crash4:50 - Gold Thoughts & Momentum9:13 - Inflation Outlook10:57 - Gold During Rate Cuts11:36 - Silvers Performance?16:17 - Portfolio Balance19:57 - Qualities in Miners25:14 - Upsides to Royalties?30:02 - Takeover Targets31:52 - Royalty Structures34:45 - Technology & Mining39:43 - A Gold Top Looks Like?43:00 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://Goldenportfolio.comX: https://x.com/GarrettGoggin
Garrett Goggin's career began in 1995 at the New York Stock Exchange, where he filled orders amidst the specialist booths. The NYSE was the economic heartbeat, its vibrant atmosphere pulsing with price adjustments following breaking news. Post-NYSE, Goggin joined a derivative arbitrage firm based in the UK and Ireland, marking his introduction to this niche trading strategy.
However, his fascination lay in gold, silver, and commodities. In contrast to the unpredictability of longer-term investments, these markets offered a sense of control. Goggin's conviction was that mastery of commodity markets wasn't contingent on luck but knowledge.
His quest for gold and silver took him across continents, visiting numerous mines and conversing with their overseers. For over fifteen years, he partnered with esteemed research entities Gold Stock Analyst and Stansberry Research, serving as a precious metals analyst.
A respected figure at prestigious gold conferences such as the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada's (PDAC) Toronto event and Denver Gold Show Europe in Zurich, Goggin is a preferred resource for leading gold and silver developers due to his insightful research.
... | |||
| Keith Weiner: The Moonshot That The Metals Have Been Waiting For | 12 Jul 2024 | 01:04:33 | |
Tom welcomes back, Keith Weiner, the president of the Gold Standard Institute USA, CEO of Monetary Metals, and a PhD economist. In their discussion, they examine the fundamental price of gold and silver which, according to Keith's Metals model, is currently above market rate. This dynamic price reflects the tension between physical markets and futures markets, with speculators in the latter holding significant leverage that can impact short-term prices. While the accuracy of this model is debated, its indication of prices being significantly above market price suggests a potential upward trend for both gold and silver.
Keith also touched on the philosophical concept of anti-concepts, drawing from Ayn Rand's ideas about proper concept formation. He used the term 'money' as an example of an anti-concept, arguing that defining money as anything other than gold or a promise to pay has led to misunderstandings and mismanagement of monetary systems.
Keith further explored the consequences of long-term trends in debt and falling interest rates. He explained how these trends lead to capital consumption through various means, including negative interest rates in countries like Germany, Netherlands, UK, and Japan, where enterprises that destroy investor capital are incentivized. In the United States, falling interest rates have led to an illusion of returns on investment as one party's wealth is converted into another's income. This 'prodigal economy' fuels consumption of capital, with Bitcoin and real estate being prime examples.
Additionally, Keith discussed differences between capital consumption, inflation, deflation, and stagflation. He argued that monetary increases can have different causes, leading to varying effects, and defined inflation as the counterfeiting or fraudulent issuance of debt or credit, resulting in inevitable deflation through losses or cram-downs. Lastly Keith explains Monetary Metals approach to making metals useful again to provide returns for companies.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Price Fundamentals4:55 - Model Inputs & Analysis11:23 - Profiting Vs. Stealing16:18 - Anti-Concepts of Money24:48 - Capital Consumption32:28 - Inflation & Economists36:32 - Defining Stagflation40:01 - Drunk Monetary Policy45:55 - Incentives & Solutions49:56 - Incentivising Capital54:34 - Providing Capital & Yields57:27 - Counterparty Risk?1:00:18 - Making Metals Useful1:03:27 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold and silver prices may be undervalued according to Monetary Metals model, indicating an upward trend.
Money defined as gold or promise to pay is crucial to avoid misunderstandings in monetary systems.
Long-term debt and falling interest rates lead to capital consumption with unintended consequences.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kweiner01Website: https://monetary-metals.comWebsite: https://goldstandardinstitute.netFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.
Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.
Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.
Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.
Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. | |||
| Julian Brigden: The Catalyst for a Powerful Metals Bull Market is in Sight | 10 Jul 2024 | 01:09:25 | |
Tom welcomes back Julian Brigden, co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, about the current economic condition referred to as 'macro purgatory.' Brigden warns of an impending recession following a tightening cycle, with only an 8-10% chance of a soft landing. He underlines the significance of employment data, specifically unemployment rates, which can precede a recession and could result in significant rises, potentially causing bond markets to rally while equities weaken. The Fed's failure to meet its stated goals complicates matters as Treasury and Janet Yellen have counteracted their efforts.
Brigden discusses his perspective on inflation trajectory over the last few years and identifies significant factors such as the breakdown of globalization, a resurgence of the cold war, demographic changes, and the impact of COVID-19. He explains that goods inflation is at its second lowest level in 65 years, while core services remain high. If core service inflation does not decrease significantly, it could indicate weakening wages and lead to recessionary signals despite falling inflation rates.
The challenges faced by the Fed in making monetary policy decisions due to lagging and imperfect metrics like employment data, GDP, and CPI are also discussed. Julian expresses optimism about precious metals as a potential investment during this economic period.
Brigden shares his perspective on investment strategy shifts towards precious metals, emphasizing the significance of recognizing market weakness and the Fed's response. Julian also mentions the historical trend of investors being fully invested during strong markets, leading to a lack of liquidity during downturns, and discusses potential impacts on bond yields when the Fed inevitably intervenes. Additionally, he touches upon geopolitical risks such as uncertainty surrounding the next U.S. presidency.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Macro Purgatory5:10 - The Fed Vs. Treasury7:46 - Goldilock Periods13:08 - Inflation Calls & Factors21:30 - Fed & Curbing Labor25:53 - Lagging Metrics & Politics34:26 - Markets & Pricing Concerns41:00 - Metals & Low Liquidity43:47 - Metals Potential & ETFs49:13 - Miners & Capital Rotation53:45 - Risk Vs. Returns & PMs58:24 - This Time is Different59:58 - AI Usefulness?1:01:07 - Fed Cuts & Bonds/Dollar1:07:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Brigden predicts an impending recession with low chances of soft landing; employment data is crucial.
His thoughts on what may spark further interest in miners and metals.
The Fed's failure to meet goals complicates matters as Treasury and Janet Yellen counteract efforts.
Core services inflation could indicate weakening wages, leading to a potential recession despite falling rates.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2Website: https://mi2partners.com/Substack: https://mi2partners.substack.com/
Julian Brigden is the Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a firm he co-founded in 2011. He leads a six-person team of research and market professionals to publish independent macroeconomic research that is both ahead of market consensus and timely. Julian has over 30 years of experience in financial markets including positions in market and policy focused consulting to institutional investors as well as FICC sales.
Julian is a trusted advisor to many top money managers who use MI2 Partners’ research to guide their investment process. He has extensive experience with macro data analysis, broad fixed income, equity market (not individual stocks) and currencies. He is particularly skilled at exploring correlations in the economy and financial markets vital to a vast array of investment decision-makers. As a global macro strategist, Julian’s primary focus is understanding and explaining macroeconomic and policy-related developments to tell clients what is important in markets and what to fade.
| |||
| David Bradshaw: No Second Chances, the Lasting Impact of Debt | 08 Jul 2024 | 00:59:46 | |
Tom welcomes Dave Bradshaw, a CPA, MBA, author, and business owner, to discuss his recently published book, "No Second Chances: A Family Guide to the College Decision and the Lasting Impact of Debt." The conversation revolved around the escalating college costs, questionable value of certain degrees, and the burdensome student loan debts many students now face.
Dave shared insights on how college has evolved from his childhood days, no longer promising a guaranteed path to financial success for numerous graduates. He stressed the significance of families considering the real costs of attending college, including the potential long-term impact of student loans on their children's future financial wellbeing. They addressed the skewed incentives in the system, such as government involvement in student loans and the absence of price discovery in the market for higher education.
Dave was inspired to write the book after observing a friend's aspiration to become a veterinarian and the immense financial burden that choice would impose on her. Dave highlights the importance of understanding the split between education costs and interest paid on loans. He advocates for students to weigh their future earning potential against taking on large student loan debts and criticized the lack of transparency surrounding college costs and financial aid.
They question the distortion in the education system due to government intervention in student loan industries, arguing that without price discovery, certain degrees and disciplines were either overvalued or undervalued. They pointed out examples such as nursing and veterinary medicine, where the value proposition was clear versus fields like sociology where the value was less evident.
The book serves as a practical guide for students and parents in making informed decisions about post-secondary education, with a workbook design that encourages self-reflection and dialogue between students and parents. It focuses on helping young people determine their purpose in life, considering what they want to learn, the job they aim for, and why they wish to attend college.
Dave suggests several strategies for alleviating the financial burden of higher education, such as living at home to cut costs in half, scholarships, tuition reimbursement programs from employers, having a job during college, and considering community colleges as an affordable alternative for the first two years.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Debt & College4:42 - Degrees, Loans, & 'Aid'7:06 - Inexperience & Decisions10:08 - Inspiration for the Book13:47 - Value Vs Interest Costs15:47 - Hidden Costs & Understanding24:05 - Distortions & Regulation30:32 - Guiding & Finding Purpose40:12 - Graduating Vs. Defaults43:14 - Consequences & Examples48:33 - Hacks & Workarounds56:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
College costs have escalated, questioning its value and burdening students with debt. Families need to consider real costs and long-term impact.
Government intervention in student loans distorts education market, leading to overvalued or undervalued degrees and policies preventing bankruptcy discharge.
Strategies for reducing financial burden include living at home, scholarships, employer tuition reimbursement, part-time jobs, and considering community colleges.
Guest Links:No Second Chances: A Family Guide to the College Choice and Lasting Impact of DebtAmazon Book: https://a.co/d/0fczd0KBWebsite: https://www.keepyours.org
David Bradshaw currently serves as the CEO and owner of Cylinder Testing Solutions (CTS), a material testing company with eight US locations, focusing on Non-Destructive Testing for the high-pressure gas industry. He also leads Tensoric, Inc.'s accounting and finance team since 2013.
Since 2007, Bradshaw has consulted small business owners on various aspects including business structure, accounting systems, tax planning, finance, operations, | |||
| Tom Luongo: Understanding Political Complexities, Truth and The New Gold Price | 05 Jul 2024 | 01:54:06 | |
Tom once again welcomes back our other favorite Tom, the Tom Luongo. Together they explore the significance of recent political events such as Supreme Court decisions, European elections, US presidential debates, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Luongo argues that these seemingly disparate events are interconnected parts of a larger strategic move by various forces within the United States and Europe. He expresses frustration with the media's attempts to shift focus from crucial issues and calls for accountability from those in power.
Luongo discusses Trump's mercantilist economic approach, potential political unrest in Europe leading to a sovereign debt crisis, and the complexities of understanding politics through examples like Thomas Massie's appearance on Tucker Carlson and Julian Assange's release from prison. Luongo also delves into the historical context behind global powers manipulating gold prices and weakening Russia, with criticism towards figures like Churchill.
Furthermore, there are discussions about the Chevron deference, its implications on power distribution between branches of government, and how Islamic eschatology might influence current political events involving Donald Trump. Luongo encourages listeners to maintain an open mind and seek diverse perspectives while acknowledging the complexities of understanding politics. Lastly he suggests several books like 'Atlas Shrugged' by Ayn Rand for gaining insight into these issues. A summary of recommended reading can be found below.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:39 - The Great Debate6:30 - Orchestrated History16:40 - Control & Premeditation27:20 - Pres. Harris & Alternatives43:18 - Powell & Trump Season 247:42 - ECB Cuts Vs. Powell57:49 - Trump & Inflation1:01:45 - Chevron Deference1:08:10 - Impacts & Effects1:16:18 - Islamic Eschatology1:28:29 - Assange & Timing1:32:07 - Mercantilism & Gold1:45:40 - Recommended Reading1:53:03 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The various forces manipulating politics through Supreme Court decisions, European elections, US debates, and Fed's monetary policy.
Trump's mercantilist economic approach causing potential crisis and complexity in understanding political events.
Historical context of power dynamics, gold prices, and Russia: lessons and criticisms.
Articles Mentioned:https://naomiwolf.substack.com/p/investor-george-jarkesy-massive-scotushttps://www.zerohedge.com/political/former-prime-minister-reveals-why-uks-blob-must-be-destroyed
Faisal's Interviews:https://rumble.com/v54mx40-biden-trump-israel-and-the-end-of-times-with-tom-luongo-and-buna-capital.htmlhttps://rumble.com/v4z3623-how-it-will-all-end-its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it.htmlhttps://x.com/SNewmanPodcast/status/1805179022168744424
Recommended Reading:Bug Jack Barron - Norman SpinradNow Wait For Last Year - Philip K. DickDo Androids Dream of Electric Sheep - Philip K. Dick
Guest Links:Website: https://tomluongo.meTwitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media.
Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner.
He ran for Florida House once and got 2.7% of the vote on Guy Fawkes Day and says, "I've since grown up a lot."
Then he spent 5+ years solving the puzzle of an electroless Nickel-Boron coating that has intriguing wear-resistance properties. Too bad, the coating was better than the company's business model.
Today, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter, in which he attempts to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to... | |||
| John Williams: From Fake Stats to Real Repercussions – The Consequences of an Inflationary Depression | 23 Aug 2024 | 00:59:15 | |
Tom welcomes back economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to explore the manipulation and misrepresentation of economic data by government institutions like the Fed and Treasury. Williams expresses concerns over the intentional distortion of inflation and GDP statistics, which can deceive the public and impact their decisions, potentially harming the economy and markets. A notable example is the strategic petroleum reserve being drained to artificially lower gasoline prices before elections. Accurate data, Williams asserts, is vital for informed policymaking and avoiding exacerbated economic issues.
Inaccurate inflation statistics are in part leading to financial hardships for many households. Despite this issue's potential political significance, no candidate has addressed it. He also explores the consequences of this discrepancy and its impact on consumer sentiment, suggesting that a future political campaign platform focusing on this could gain substantial support. Conversing about the potential economic pain or increased debt needed to rectify these issues, Williams acknowledges the challenges but stresses their necessity for improving conditions for the average American.
Williams raises concerns about the reliability of reported GDP figures, arguing they are heavily manipulated and bear little connection to real economic conditions. He highlights the disparity between reported GDP and underlying economic indicators like retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts, attributing this gap to political constructs and the Fed's money supply expansion. Williams warns of potential risks from an inflationary recession or depression and encourages individuals to protect themselves by holding physical assets like gold, real estate, or other hard assets. He concludes that average citizens should be concerned about economic instability arising from these factors.
John suggests that a recession already began during the pandemic and consumers should use common sense when evaluating government information.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Real Statistics & Fed13:03 - Wages & Inflation14:25 - Party Politics & Fixes18:28 - Political Will & Debt24:52 - Gold & Inflation28:19 - Real GDP/GDI Numbers36:56 - Consumer Sentiment43:22 - Consistent Benchmark?44:57 - SPR Importance & Need?50:53 - Reality is Hitting Now52:42 - Federal Debt & Interest55:12 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Williams warns of manipulated economic data affecting public decisions and markets.
Williams emphasizes the financial impact of inaccurate inflation statistics on average Americans.
GDP figures are criticized as heavily manipulated, with gold suggested as a hedge against potential instability.
Guest Links:Website: https://shadowstats.comE-Mail: johnwilliams@shadowstats.com
Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. | |||
| David Haggith: Weathering the Storm – Coping with Recession, Inflation, & Market Volatility | 21 Aug 2024 | 00:50:42 | |
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back David Haggith, author of the Daily Doom Substack. The conversation centers around the current economic situation in the U.S. and repercussions on the Federal Reserve policies. Last summer, David predicted continued inflationary pressures from factors like housing costs with a one-year lag time, oil prices, and producer prices. Despite the Fed's potential intentions to cut interest rates, David cautions about the possibility of another inflation spike, compelling the Fed to reconsider their decision.
David argues that markets misjudged the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates based on ambiguous comments from Chair Jerome Powell. Though Powell didn't signal a change in policy, markets believed there would be a pivot due to vague statements. This misunderstanding led to significant market fluctuations and the dissolution of the Fed's tightening efforts, necessitating further tightening by the Fed.
David also discusses the impacts on the economy during the covid period and impact on labor metrics. He believes that labor remains 'tight' due to a substantial drop in laborers as a result, leading to production issues. Despite some recovery, the labor pool has not returned to its previous trend line, signaling ongoing labor supply problems.
Mr. Haggith also touches upon potential market implications during the election and compares the current situation with the dot-com bust in 2000, where AI stocks were overvalued based on future potential. David warns of a possible correction similar to what occurred then. Regarding the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, David discusses the potential impact on oil prices and the challenges of de-dollarization.
David also explores strategies for safeguarding assets during uncertain economic times, suggesting alternatives to keeping money in banks or dollars due to risks of inflation and bank troubles. He advocates for gold as a store of wealth but acknowledges its limitations. Other recommendations include building skills, focusing on relationships, and preparing for transactions if locked out of central bank digital currencies.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Fed Resolve & Pivots10:00 - Lag Effects & Landings13:24 - Sahm Recession Rule & GDP16:50 - Covid Era & Economy20:34 - Consumer Debt & Recession22:26 - Market Volatility & Elections27:00 - Comparisons & Conflicts34:52 - Unknowns & Dedollarization38:00 - Dollar & Global Trade39:57 - Yen Carry Trade41:10 - Defensive Measures44:44 - Gold & Other Metals49:07 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Further potential inflation spikes despite Fed's rate cut intentions due to lingering economic pressures.
How markets misinterpreted Powell's statements, resulting in market volatility and necessitating further Fed tightening.
Why labor supply issues persist as a result of the Covid Period, affecting production and labor metrics.
Guest Links:Substack: https://www.thedailydoom.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/EconomicRecess
David Haggith is the publisher/editor-in-chief of the Daily Doom Substack. David began the Great Recession Blog back in 2007 when he realized the U.S. housing market was on the verge of collapse. He urged family to sell their homes near the peak of the market. He decided the world needed a voice that would present more insightful commentary on the economic news of the day than what had been available anywhere in the mainstream media. Furthermore, he was amazed that so few people we're able to see through the nonsense. He doesn't associate with any political party, as politics keep people focused on blaming the other side and not recognizing the flaws on theirs. He's made a number of successful market calls and forecasts for past recessions. David believes we are now entering a Second Great Recession and provides advice on how to avoid the consequences. | |||
| David Brady: What Rate Cuts Mean for Gold, Silver, and Miners | 16 Aug 2024 | 01:06:48 | |
Tom welcomes back David Brady, a former money manager, Sprott Money contributor, advisor to 4779 Capital, and Substack publisher. Brady shares his perspective on the current state of markets versus the economy using his Five Pest process. He expresses his belief that a stock market crash is inevitable, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching around 1000. Brady warns that the Federal Reserve will likely intervene to prevent a major market drop and discusses his expectations for bonds, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin, gold, and silver markets.
Brady believes both gold and silver have been correlated recently but notes a disconnect with silver prices. He attributes the current strength of the gold market to Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates, a weakening dollar, potential escalation of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, growing fiscal deficits, increasing demand from central banks and countries like China and India, and bullion bank squeezes. Brady predicts that miners will eventually catch up with the metals' price rise but may initially lag behind due to rising energy costs.
David shares his perspective on how miners might respond once the Fed cuts interest rates, acknowledging uncertainty about whether this could be the catalyst for miner outperformance or if it's already priced in. Silver could also surpass gold's performance based on historical trends, with silver often underperforming gold but catching up during major rallies.
David emphasizes the importance of looking at inflation-adjusted highs in gold and silver markets. David's investment strategy involves tracking the beta between miners and silver, buying high beta miners when he believes silver is about to rise, selling when he thinks it's near a top, and holding until silver drops significantly to validate the trend.
David discusses the potential impact of the upcoming US election on monetary policy and markets, with both Trump and a Democrat potentially winning but differing approaches to fiscal spending and interest rates. He labels Trump as an inflationist and expects him to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could contribute to inflation and benefit gold and silver.
Lastly, David also mentions his concern about larger investment funds that only rebalance their portfolios quarterly or monthly. He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for financial instability by holding physical metals, farmland, becoming self-sufficient, and paying off debt.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Davids Market Outlook6:12 - Fed Reaction & Banks11:56 - BRICS 'The Unit'15:05 - Equity Drawdowns & Metals16:06 - Performance Gold Vs Silver23:10 - Fed Cut a Miner Catalyst?26:08 - Silver Chart35:25 - Inflation Adj Highs39:10 - High Beta Miners45:00 - U.S. Political Outlook54:08 - Drawdowns Vs. Physical56:22 - Have a Plan B & Skills1:00:22 - Crisis & Big Funds1:04:50 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Substack: https://fipestreport.substack.com/Fund Website: https://4779Capital.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotraderSprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life.
David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, | |||
| David Hunter: The Next Crash will Force the Fed to Print 20 Trillion Dollars | 15 Aug 2024 | 01:10:20 | |
Tom welcomes back experienced investment professional David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors.
Talking Points From This Episode
The coming global bust and why inflation will persist.
We're in the last decade of a forty plus year supercycle.
His thoughts on bonds during and after the bust.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:58 - Feds Outlook & Markets6:41 - Fed Vs Bond Markets10:46 - Market Thesis Ahead19:45 - FOMO or Fed Policy22:56 - After Targets & 202526:46 - Feds Response to Bust33:47 - Trillions & Inflation42:18 - Hedges & Precious Metals?46:48 - During/After the Bust51:27 - End of Bond Markets?55:00 - Remonetizing Scenarios57:36 - Preserving Capital1:04:53 - Commodities & Dollar1:07:25 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Email: Dhunter31@gmail.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd. | |||
| Robert Smallbone: Having a Plan B for Finances, Location, and Energy is Crucial | 14 Aug 2024 | 00:54:35 | |
In this Palisades Gold Radio episode, host Tom Bodrovics invites Robert Smallbone from the Contrarian Capitalist Substack to discuss his concerns about the current state of affairs in the UK, particularly regarding protests, free speech, and political shifts towards left-wing ideologies. They also delve into topics such as energy policies, hate speech legislation, monetary history, and property investment.
Smallbone shares apprehensions over the UK government's handling of protests and free speech inconsistencies, touching on the complexity of defining offensive content. He emphasizes the significance of planning ahead, using the analogy of food shopping and dinner planning for strategic life decisions, and shares his personal experience living in Mexico.
The conversation then focuses on energy policies and their potential impact on costs, with Smallbone expressing concern over the UK's reliance on imported energy and the government's renewable energy focus versus nuclear power for base load energy. He criticizes the halting of oil and gas licenses in Scotland and advocates for nuclear energy as a sustainable solution for achieving energy independence and security.
Smallbone also discusses his frustrations with societal prioritization of eco-friendliness over practicality, using England's lack of grid infrastructure as an example. He challenges negative perceptions of nuclear power and emphasizes the importance of being well-informed about energy systems and subsidies.
Robert reflects on the significance of understanding monetary history and the potential financial repercussions of current inflationary policies, recalling monetary crises throughout history. He encourages listeners to study financial history and advocates for owning gold, silver, and potentially Bitcoin as a means of protection against potential monetary crises and inflation. The discussion also covers property investment strategies and the importance of buying property at the right time with consideration for interest rates and their impact on real estate investments.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - UK & Crazy Politics5:32 - Social Media Police9:43 - Having Backup Plans14:25 - Energy Policy Nonsense22:06 - Green Energy Problems24:16 - Subsidies & Real Costs28:10 - Monetary History & Cycles38:24 - Diversification & Property43:55 - Interest Rates & Cuts46:14 - Seek Solutions52:44 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Smallbone expresses concerns over UK protests, free speech inconsistencies, and energy policies.
He advocates for nuclear energy, financial preparations, and being well-informed about subsidies.
The importance of monetary history education and gold/silver ownership as a protective measure.
Guest Links:Website: https://contrariancapitalist.substack.com/
Robert Smallbone, an unconventional thinker advocating for liberty and freedom, invites you to visit The Contrarian Capitalist Substack. Through discussions on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and metals, he introduces alternative viewpoints, offering potential solutions to the complexities of life and the world's chaos. His primary objective is to assist readers in seeking solutions and consider their Plan B strategies effectively. | |||
| Vince Lanci: Chinese Gold Buying and the Yen Carry Trade | 12 Aug 2024 | 01:17:13 | |
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Professor Vince Lanci, MBA Finance and Publisher of the Goldfix Substack, for a discussion on recent market events. The primary focus is on the past week's stock market drawdowns, which started on August 2nd, possibly influenced by the Yen Carry Trade collapse. Despite no clear catalyst at the time, it's now believed that the Federal Reserve's reluctance to ease, coupled with Buffett's Apple share sale and Citibank's prediction of multiple interest rate cuts, put pressure on banks, leading them to reconsider their stance. The unexpected end to Japan's yield curve control policy caused a blow-up in the Yen Carry Trade as hedge funds were forced to refinance at higher rates, triggering a wave of selling across various markets.
Tom asks about possible tensions between Federal Reserve chairman and the Treasury's roles in managing U.S. economic policy. Janet Yellen's handling of monetary policy during her tenure as Fed Chair is critiqued for misallocating funds, creating a false signal about an economic recession, and potentially leading to inflation and higher stocks.
Vince shares an intriguing story about a Chinese gold trader causing significant damage to bullion banks. This trader, not typically known for gold trading, had been buying large quantities of futures from Western bullion banks over the counter, leading to losses. The conversation delves into the impact of Yellen's actions on the shape of the yield curve and discusses the sale of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during the Biden presidency and its implications.
They explore whether we still need the same level of oil reserves as in the past, considering changing energy policies and difficulties in producing and storing refined products. The conversation touches on China's growing influence, the importance of ensuring a deflationary crisis for China, discovering new oil and energy sources, and securing global dominance through innovation and geopolitical considerations.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Talk About Markets13:49 - Easy Money Addiction22:55 - Fed Vs Yellen & Mandates30:44 - Yellen & Wrong Signals38:47 - Gold Trader Story46:38 - Banks & Positioning49:22 - SPR & Politics57:23 - Oil Reserve Needs1:00:09 - Gold and the Dollar1:04:40 - Thorium & Oil1:07:56 - American Innovation?1:10:20 - BRICS & Japan1:12:47 - Policy, Energy, & Votes1:14:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The past week's stock market drawdowns were influenced by the collapse of Yen Carry Trade.
Despite no clear catalyst at the time, Federal Reserve reluctance to ease led banks to reconsider their stance.
China's gold trader caused significant damage to bullion banks due to excessive futures trading over OTC.
Guest Links:Special Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development.
In recent years, Mr. Lanci's insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut.
Prior to his current role, from 2004 to 2008, Mr. Lanci served as Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC. During this tenure, he managed the long-short and volatility arbitrage portfolios for the parent Limited Partnership fund.
From 1993 to 2003, Mr. Lanci was the proprietor of Berard Capital LLC, where he led a team of option marketmakers. | |||
| Prof. Joel Litman: Beyond Headlines – Strategic Insights on BRICS, Debt Crises, and Investments | 09 Aug 2024 | 01:40:39 | |
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics interviews Professor Joel Litman, CEO and Chief Investment Strategist of Valens Research and Altimetry Research. Litman criticizes the financial system's reliability, questioning media credibility and the effectiveness of modern accounting standards. He believes that while GDP is inadequate as a measure of economic strength due to its tax-based foundation, the US benefits from a lower tax rate and substantial income generation.
Despite his concerns over political spending, Litman trusts there's a control on deficits and sustained growth, believing in the US economy's resilience. He reprimands financial media for prioritizing headline numbers over credit research, stating earnings can be misleading due to regulatory capture within the accounting sector. Litman emphasizes considering various economic indicators beyond stock market figures and addresses China's economic concerns, including its debt crisis and RMB devaluation.
Litman presents a bullish stance on cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange and storage but suggests converting back to dollars for spending or investment. He encourages passive investors to focus on long-term investments in US equities due to their consistent outperformance. The conversation touches upon macroeconomic factors affecting mining industry decisions versus specific mine analysis, emphasizing productivity and worth. Litman discusses potential US election implications and anticipates a thriving US stock market regardless of the outcome. He foresees continuity in economic policies under either Democratic or Republican leadership and significant productivity gains from AI integration within industries over the next ten to thirty years.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:24 - The Bearer of Good News8:44 - Net Earnings & Accounting15:45 - Metrics & Complexities22:06 - Tax Base, GDP, & China31:14 - Talent Exiting China38:42 - U.S. Economy Benefits41:28 - Buffett Selling47:23 - Misleading Financials52:07 - Inflation Metrics55:40 - Dollar & Global Trade58:30 - China's Problems & Russia1:03:44 - BRICS & Latin America1:07:40 - Dollar Alternatives & Crypto1:12:04 - Gold Uses & Investors1:19:29 - Macro Factors & Miners1:26:22 - Russia/Urkaine & Gold1:28:16 - Middle East Concerns?1:30:53 - US Election & Sides1:36:10 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Litman questioned the relevance of modern accounting standards and criticized financial media for focusing on headline numbers. He stressed the importance of looking beyond GDP for a true economic understanding.
Litman is bullish on cryptocurrencies but expresses concerns around converting to dollars for spending/investment. He advises long-term investment in US equities due to their outperformance.
China faces economic challenges, including debt crisis and potential insolvencies, which could lead to job losses and instability. Litman anticipates continuity in US economic policies after the election and sees productivity gains from AI integration.
Guest Links:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joellitman/Website: https://altimetry.com/Website: https://www.valens-research.com/
Joel Litman is President and CEO of Valens Research, a global corporate performance and investment research and analytics firm. In the role of Chief Investment Strategist, he advises institutional investors in equities, corporate credit, and macroeconomic strategy. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of COL Financial Group, a leading brokerage firm in Asia (PSE:COL).
Litman has been on CNBC, quoted in Barron’s and Institutional Investor, and interviewed in Forbes.com. He has published in Harvard Business Review, is a top contributor to SeekingAlpha, and co-authored the highly-acclaimed book, DRIVEN: Business Strategy, Human Actions, and the Creation of Wealth.
Litman has taught or guest-lectured at Harvard Business School, U Chicago Booth, Wharton, LBS, SAIF Jiao Tong, | |||
| Don Durrett: There Is No Path Forward Where Gold Doesn’t Do Well | 06 Sep 2024 | 01:02:40 | |
In this episode, your host Tom Bodrovics invites back Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss the economic conditions shaping gold's performance. Don highlights the U.S.'s weakening economy and global uncertainty as catalysts for gold's growth. He believes that a floor for gold exists at $2,200 due to its inverse relationship with the economy.
Don touches upon the Federal Reserve's challenges in managing inflation and interest rates, pointing to unprecedented debt levels. He voices concerns about the reliability of economic data, questioning their accuracy and suggesting consumer spending might be weaker than presented. He predicts a potential 50 basis point rate cut due to signs of slowing growth.
The conversation also addresses market volatility caused by Japan's potential interest rate hike and its impact on the yen carry trade. Don raises concerns about imminent challenges in the bond market, which holds more significance than the stock market, as credit could get turned off when countries reach a point of no return. He advises investing in gold and silver as alternatives during economic instability and predicts significant price increases for these metals.
Don also anticipates that gold miners will benefit from a rate cutting cycle due to their improved margins during recessions.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:07 - Gold & Recent Fed Policy5:46 - Trends and Gold8:29 - Fed Cuts & History14:10 - 70s Inflation or Deflation17:20 - Metrics & Data Revisions22:37 - BOJ & Western Volatility26:20 - Political Extremes32:15 - Asset Tops & Metals36:40 - Debt Servicing & GDP40:00 - Rate Cuts & the Miners45:37 - Insider Activity?47:33 - Share Dilution & Red Flags54:38 - Fall Market Direction1:01:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold's growth influenced by U.S.'s weakening economy & global uncertainty, with floor at $2,200 due to inverse relationship with economy.
Federal Reserve's dilemma managing inflation & interest rates due to historic debt levels.
Concerns about economic data reliability & potential 50 basis point rate cut as signs of slowing growth emerge.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Free Trial: https://www.goldstockdata.com/freetrialSubstack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com. | |||
| Nick Giambruno: The Failure of Central Planning and Central Banks | 05 Sep 2024 | 00:41:58 | |
Tom welcomes back Nick Giambruno, founder of The Financial Underground and editor-in-chief of its premium investment research publication. Nick criticizes central planning and the Fed's role in managing inflation, arguing that central banks, cannot effectively manage interest rates due to their antithesis to free markets.
Giambruno deemed the steepest rate-hiking cycle by the Fed to combat decades-high inflation futile because raising rates to a level impacting inflation would bankrupt the US government. He considers claims of victory over inflation propaganda, as essential prices like electricity bills and food hadn't reached pre-pandemic levels.
Nick touches on the potential politicization of Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead of elections and the influence of politics on its actions. The discussion covers escalating debt and interest expenses, now the largest federal budget item, trapping the United States in a cycle of currency debasement.
Giambruno advises investing in hard assets like gold and precious metals as a long-term savings vehicle, and suggests considering gold mining stocks to speculate on fiat currency debasement. He favors royalty companies over individual mining stocks due to reduced risk.
The potential impact of the BRICS creating their own trading currency on the US dollar and the changing global order was discussed, suggesting a developing multipolar world where other countries take larger roles. Giambruno believs we are in a chaotic period, likening it to historical periods of power division, and advises individuals to consider alternatives like Latin America as a potential refuge.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Fed & Economic State5:00 - Politics, Inflation & CPI8:55 - Debt, Interest, & Debasement10:34 - Dollar Collapse Endgame18:11 - Asset Alternatives19:45 - Gold Miners & Rate Cuts21:12 - Commodities in General22:40 - Miners & Royalties24:25 - Lack of Understanding29:14 - Short Term Gambling31:25 - BRICS Trend & Conflict35:18 - Historic Parallels37:23 - Have a Backup Plan39:20 - West Political Shift?41:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Central banks, including the Fed, cannot effectively manage interest rates due to their being the antithesis of free markets.
Investing in hard assets like gold and precious metals is advised as a long-term savings vehicle.
The interview touched on potential politicization of Federal Reserve monetary policy and the influence of political considerations on its actions.
Guest Links:Website: https://financialunderground.comTwitter:https://x.com/FinancialUnderWebsite: https://nickgiambruno.com
Nick Giambruno is a renowned speculator and international investor. He's the Founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of its premium investment research publication Contra Speculator.
Nick travels the world searching for lucrative investment opportunities in overlooked markets.
Nick specializes in identifying Big Picture geopolitical and economic trends ahead of the crowd. His approach to investing also focuses on profiting from distortions in the market. This includes identifying unfounded pessimism in beaten-up industries, which creates opportunities for enormous gains.
He writes about geopolitics, value investing in crisis markets, Bitcoin, international banking, second passports, international diversification, and surviving a financial collapse, among other topics.
Nick has traveled to over 60 countries and lived in six of them. He formerly worked in the Middle East with a Dubai-based investment bank.
He has been featured in The Economist, Forbes, Zero Hedge, Seeking Alpha, The Herald of Zimbabwe, The Keiser Report, MoneyWeek, Casey Research, International Man, The Crux, Gold Newsletter, The Jet Setter Show, Lew Rockwell.com, The Tom Woods Show, International Living Magazine, Wall St for Main St, Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing, AntiWar.com, The Power & Market Report, | |||
| Jeffrey Christian: Gold and Silver, The US Election – Existential Implications | 04 Sep 2024 | 00:54:32 | |
Tom welcomes back the Managing Partner of the CPM Group, Jeffrey Christian to discuss the Fed, Gold and the current economic realities of U.S. and the globe. Jeff shares his views on the Fed aiming for a long-term inflation average of around 2%, with fluctuations accepted between 1.3% and 2.8%. He asserts that while the target remains unchanged, the Fed is being more explicit about it. He speculates on the reasons why inflation is "acceptable" to the Fed.
Jeffrey discusses the likely September interest rate reduction and potential surprises. He anticipates a quarter-point decrease followed by further evaluations in November and December due to recessionary fears.
Jeff discusses the US economy's influence on the global stage, the significance of the upcoming US election, the importance of data reliability in today's digital age, and the drivers of gold and silver prices.
Central banks' roles in gold demand, with decreasing holdings by developed countries and emerging economies buying for monetary reserves, are also explored. The history of non-alignment among developing countries and the uncertain future direction of BRICS is touched upon.
Jeff explains the drivers of long-term silver prices including investment and industrial fabrication demands, with relatively low net investment demand leading to unremarkable price performance. Industrial demand for platinum and palladium is substantial but not expected to surge significantly. Fear acts as a catalyst for investments into these metals although there primary use is industrial rather than having a monetary function.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:08 - Fed Anticipation & CPI3:25 - Acceptable Inflation?5:33 - A Fed Sept. Surprise?8:50 - Recession Risk & Fed10:00 - Global Effects13:04 - 2024 Politics & Markets16:23 - U.S. Policy & Regulations21:30 - Ignorance & Progress24:12 - Gold & Silver Outlook28:43 - Long-Term Thoughts36:25 - Dollar Vs. Gold Demand40:50 - BRICS Alliance45:47 - Drivers for Silver49:13 - Platinum & Palladium52:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Fed's fall rate expectations and possibility of a surprise.
Global economic outlook and what to expect around the election cycle.
Gold's global role and the limited monetary role of other precious metals.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLCWebsite: https://www.cpmgroup.com/Questions Email: info@cpmgroup.comYouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
He has advised many of the world's largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments. | |||
| Bob Moriarty: Gold Miner Undervaluations Are About To Change | 12 Sep 2024 | 00:51:29 | |
Tom welcomes back Bob Moriarty to engage in a discussion about global conflicts and their potential impact on world affairs. Moriarty raises concerns over the United States' involvement in Ukraine and Israel, as well as the possibility of China invading Taiwan. He emphasizes the critical nature of these events and expresses his belief in the imminence of such conflicts, which could involve multiple nations.
Moriarty questions America's preparedness for war on multiple fronts and criticizes its past military interventions. Additionally, he discusses the importance of intelligence reports and geopolitical factors shaping world events. The conversation touches upon the upcoming US election, with both individuals expressing concern over potential chaos and uncertainty surrounding it.
Moriarty advocates for owning gold as an insurance policy against economic instability. Moriarty discusses investing in gold and mining stocks, focusing on the historical premium of platinum over gold, volatility of silver, and potential opportunities in junior silver miners.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:56 - Risks & Coming Volatility4:40 - Conflicts & Reports10:10 - China, Taiwan, & Logistics13:35 - Elections & Conflict Risks17:55 - Crises & Many Black Swans21:40 - Totalitarian Moves24:01 - Implications for Gold25:40 - Mining Equities & Value28:10 - Miners During Rate Cuts29:49 - Fundamentals Vs. FOMO32:04 - Inflation Waves & Cash?35:38 - Commodities Undervalued36:52 - The Chart39:20 - Finding Great Miners41:57 - Silver & Returns45:14 - Why Platinum?49:14 - Be Prudent & Prepared50:33 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Moriarty voices concerns over U.S. involvement in Ukraine, Israel, and China's potential invasion of Taiwan.
He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for multiple front wars and criticizes past U.S. military interventions.
Moriarty advocates for owning gold as an economic stability insurance and discusses investing opportunities in gold and mining stocks.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records. | |||
| Simon Hunt: Markets, Bonds, and Currencies are Heading for a Last Hurrah as the Risk of War Grows | 11 Sep 2024 | 00:48:22 | |
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back consultant Simon Hunt to delve into the distinctions between Western-oriented and impartial perspectives in global analysis. Their conversation evolves around the potential threats to the West's global supremacy from the BRICS collective, spearheaded by China and Russia. This power transition could result in a loss of control over events and even the likelihood of war should diplomacy falter. The discussion also encompasses America's historic aim to fragment Russia, recent geopolitical strains, and potential clashes in Israel and Iran.
Simon discusses the ongoing geopolitical stressors and their consequences for financial markets. Their discourse centers around the US-Russia confrontation, the influence of the deep state or neoconservatives on foreign policy, and the ramifications for oil prices, copper markets, and US equities and bonds. Simon posits that Russia's reaction to Western antagonisms will be restrained but impactful, potentially triggering a substantial increase in inflation and a readjustment of monetary policy. The conversation also explores the potential repercussions of crises in Ukraine and the Middle East on the global economy.
Mr. Hunt discusses the motivations behind central banks and nations, specifically China, amassing vast quantities of gold as a safeguard against prospective currency devaluation and financial instability. He also voices his opinions on China's housing market collapse being an intended move by the government to lessen local governments' indebtedness and establish a foundation for future centralized fiscal and monetary policies if war occurs. Simon proposes that China is preparing for potential economic difficulties while maintaining a prudent stance in its fiscal and monetary policy.
Simon explores various economic matters, such as demographic problems in both the US and China, the legitimacy of economic statistics, and his views on market trends over the next few years. He suggests that the US economy might be experiencing a recession based on authentic data like deflated retail sales and employment numbers, true inflation rates, and genuine unemployment figures, which he believes are more precise indicators of economic activity than formal GDP or CPI numbers. Simon asserts that numerous countries, including the US and much of Europe, are either in a recession or heading towards one. He also expresses apprehension over governments manipulating information and the increasing mistrust among people due to heightened awareness. In terms of market predictions, Simon anticipates a steep decline in global equity markets and base metals by early next year, followed by inflation and a surge in long-term interest rates, culminating in a collapse of the financial system by 2028.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Thought West Vs. East4:22 - Provoking Russia10:16 - Israel & Middle East16:08 - Incentives & Sensibility19:17 - Risks with Russia21:55 - Market Outlook Long-Term28:44 - C.B./Smart Money Exiting30:30 - China Use For Gold33:34 - China - Housing Sector37:50 - U.S. Demographic Issues39:37 - Metrics & Fudgification45:07 - Six Month Market Outlook46:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The BRICS group, led by China and Russia, poses a significant challenge to the West's global dominance, potentially leading to diplomatic clashes or even war.
Central banks, particularly China, are amassing gold as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic instability.
Simon Hunt anticipates a steep decline in global equity markets and base metals, followed by inflation and a surge in long-term interest rates.
Guest Links:Email: simon@shss.comWebsite: https://simon-hunt.com/
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, | |||
| Gary Savage: 13-Year Base in Gold Means Big Moves Ahead | 16 Sep 2024 | 00:36:16 | |
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Gary Savage, a retired entrepreneur and commodity trader, about the current state and future prospects of metals markets, specifically focusing on gold and silver. Savage underscores the importance of considering larger time frames for understanding gold market trends, emphasizing a potential 13-year base pattern in gold and impending breakout. He anticipates gold prices to reach at least $7,000 and potentially $10,000 due to this significant base size. Silver's volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, with expectations of it reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
Savage differentiates gold and silver markets based on distinct fundamental drivers, discussing the potential implications of the war cycle, inflation, and recent dollar trend following the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting. He encourages investors to remain attentive for a significant move upwards in metals and advises buying physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout.
The discussion covers the significance of COT reports as a tool. Gary highlights the potential leverage from miners, but ultimately suggests that physical precious metals could yield greater gains in the long run. He delves into the impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the potential for a recession.
Mr. Savage shares his belief in the precious metals sector's potential benefits due to the significant gold breakout, encouraging listeners to maintain a broad perspective despite market fluctuations. He dismisses energy, uranium, Bitcoin, and the stock market for investment purposes, favoring precious metals amid geopolitical tensions that could lead to a possible World War III. Savage concludes by urging listeners to stay focused on the big picture.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Big Picture on Metals3:00 - Comparing Silver & Gold5:12 - Commodities & Metals Diverge6:37 - Dollar Fundamentals8:26 - Gold Charts & Cycles12:19 - Silver Chart & Outlook15:22 - Trades & Timelines19:00 - COT Reports Uses?20:18 - Silver Miners & Leverage22:40 - Dollar & Other Currencies24:23 - Fed & Recession?28:03 - War Cycle & Elections30:00 - Regression Analysis33:50 - Metals Sector Divergence35:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gary Savage highlights a potential 13-year gold base pattern and impending breakout, expecting prices to reach at least $7,000.
Silver's volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
Significant move upwards in metals, invest in physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout, and maintain a long-term perspective.
Guest LinksTwitter: https:/twitter.com/garysavage1Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videosWebsite: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/
Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).
Gary's renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining, | |||
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