Gary Savage: 13-Year Base in Gold Means Big Moves Ahead
lundi 16 septembre 2024 • Durée 36:16
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Gary Savage, a retired entrepreneur and commodity trader, about the current state and future prospects of metals markets, specifically focusing on gold and silver. Savage underscores the importance of considering larger time frames for understanding gold market trends, emphasizing a potential 13-year base pattern in gold and impending breakout. He anticipates gold prices to reach at least $7,000 and potentially $10,000 due to this significant base size. Silver's volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, with expectations of it reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
Savage differentiates gold and silver markets based on distinct fundamental drivers, discussing the potential implications of the war cycle, inflation, and recent dollar trend following the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting. He encourages investors to remain attentive for a significant move upwards in metals and advises buying physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout.
The discussion covers the significance of COT reports as a tool. Gary highlights the potential leverage from miners, but ultimately suggests that physical precious metals could yield greater gains in the long run. He delves into the impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the potential for a recession.
Mr. Savage shares his belief in the precious metals sector's potential benefits due to the significant gold breakout, encouraging listeners to maintain a broad perspective despite market fluctuations. He dismisses energy, uranium, Bitcoin, and the stock market for investment purposes, favoring precious metals amid geopolitical tensions that could lead to a possible World War III. Savage concludes by urging listeners to stay focused on the big picture.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Big Picture on Metals3:00 - Comparing Silver & Gold5:12 - Commodities & Metals Diverge6:37 - Dollar Fundamentals8:26 - Gold Charts & Cycles12:19 - Silver Chart & Outlook15:22 - Trades & Timelines19:00 - COT Reports Uses?20:18 - Silver Miners & Leverage22:40 - Dollar & Other Currencies24:23 - Fed & Recession?28:03 - War Cycle & Elections30:00 - Regression Analysis33:50 - Metals Sector Divergence35:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gary Savage highlights a potential 13-year gold base pattern and impending breakout, expecting prices to reach at least $7,000.
Silver's volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
Significant move upwards in metals, invest in physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout, and maintain a long-term perspective.
Guest LinksTwitter: https:/twitter.com/garysavage1Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videosWebsite: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/
Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).
Gary's renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining,
Bob Moriarty: Gold Miner Undervaluations Are About To Change
jeudi 12 septembre 2024 • Durée 51:29
Tom welcomes back Bob Moriarty to engage in a discussion about global conflicts and their potential impact on world affairs. Moriarty raises concerns over the United States' involvement in Ukraine and Israel, as well as the possibility of China invading Taiwan. He emphasizes the critical nature of these events and expresses his belief in the imminence of such conflicts, which could involve multiple nations.
Moriarty questions America's preparedness for war on multiple fronts and criticizes its past military interventions. Additionally, he discusses the importance of intelligence reports and geopolitical factors shaping world events. The conversation touches upon the upcoming US election, with both individuals expressing concern over potential chaos and uncertainty surrounding it.
Moriarty advocates for owning gold as an insurance policy against economic instability. Moriarty discusses investing in gold and mining stocks, focusing on the historical premium of platinum over gold, volatility of silver, and potential opportunities in junior silver miners.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:56 - Risks & Coming Volatility4:40 - Conflicts & Reports10:10 - China, Taiwan, & Logistics13:35 - Elections & Conflict Risks17:55 - Crises & Many Black Swans21:40 - Totalitarian Moves24:01 - Implications for Gold25:40 - Mining Equities & Value28:10 - Miners During Rate Cuts29:49 - Fundamentals Vs. FOMO32:04 - Inflation Waves & Cash?35:38 - Commodities Undervalued36:52 - The Chart39:20 - Finding Great Miners41:57 - Silver & Returns45:14 - Why Platinum?49:14 - Be Prudent & Prepared50:33 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Moriarty voices concerns over U.S. involvement in Ukraine, Israel, and China's potential invasion of Taiwan.
He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for multiple front wars and criticizes past U.S. military interventions.
Moriarty advocates for owning gold as an economic stability insurance and discusses investing opportunities in gold and mining stocks.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
Simon Hunt: Markets, Bonds, and Currencies are Heading for a Last Hurrah as the Risk of War Grows
mercredi 11 septembre 2024 • Durée 48:22
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back consultant Simon Hunt to delve into the distinctions between Western-oriented and impartial perspectives in global analysis. Their conversation evolves around the potential threats to the West's global supremacy from the BRICS collective, spearheaded by China and Russia. This power transition could result in a loss of control over events and even the likelihood of war should diplomacy falter. The discussion also encompasses America's historic aim to fragment Russia, recent geopolitical strains, and potential clashes in Israel and Iran.
Simon discusses the ongoing geopolitical stressors and their consequences for financial markets. Their discourse centers around the US-Russia confrontation, the influence of the deep state or neoconservatives on foreign policy, and the ramifications for oil prices, copper markets, and US equities and bonds. Simon posits that Russia's reaction to Western antagonisms will be restrained but impactful, potentially triggering a substantial increase in inflation and a readjustment of monetary policy. The conversation also explores the potential repercussions of crises in Ukraine and the Middle East on the global economy.
Mr. Hunt discusses the motivations behind central banks and nations, specifically China, amassing vast quantities of gold as a safeguard against prospective currency devaluation and financial instability. He also voices his opinions on China's housing market collapse being an intended move by the government to lessen local governments' indebtedness and establish a foundation for future centralized fiscal and monetary policies if war occurs. Simon proposes that China is preparing for potential economic difficulties while maintaining a prudent stance in its fiscal and monetary policy.
Simon explores various economic matters, such as demographic problems in both the US and China, the legitimacy of economic statistics, and his views on market trends over the next few years. He suggests that the US economy might be experiencing a recession based on authentic data like deflated retail sales and employment numbers, true inflation rates, and genuine unemployment figures, which he believes are more precise indicators of economic activity than formal GDP or CPI numbers. Simon asserts that numerous countries, including the US and much of Europe, are either in a recession or heading towards one. He also expresses apprehension over governments manipulating information and the increasing mistrust among people due to heightened awareness. In terms of market predictions, Simon anticipates a steep decline in global equity markets and base metals by early next year, followed by inflation and a surge in long-term interest rates, culminating in a collapse of the financial system by 2028.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Thought West Vs. East4:22 - Provoking Russia10:16 - Israel & Middle East16:08 - Incentives & Sensibility19:17 - Risks with Russia21:55 - Market Outlook Long-Term28:44 - C.B./Smart Money Exiting30:30 - China Use For Gold33:34 - China - Housing Sector37:50 - U.S. Demographic Issues39:37 - Metrics & Fudgification45:07 - Six Month Market Outlook46:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The BRICS group, led by China and Russia, poses a significant challenge to the West's global dominance, potentially leading to diplomatic clashes or even war.
Central banks, particularly China, are amassing gold as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic instability.
Simon Hunt anticipates a steep decline in global equity markets and base metals, followed by inflation and a surge in long-term interest rates.
Guest Links:Email: simon@shss.comWebsite: https://simon-hunt.com/
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961,
Don Durrett: There Is No Path Forward Where Gold Doesn’t Do Well
vendredi 6 septembre 2024 • Durée 01:02:40
In this episode, your host Tom Bodrovics invites back Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss the economic conditions shaping gold's performance. Don highlights the U.S.'s weakening economy and global uncertainty as catalysts for gold's growth. He believes that a floor for gold exists at $2,200 due to its inverse relationship with the economy.
Don touches upon the Federal Reserve's challenges in managing inflation and interest rates, pointing to unprecedented debt levels. He voices concerns about the reliability of economic data, questioning their accuracy and suggesting consumer spending might be weaker than presented. He predicts a potential 50 basis point rate cut due to signs of slowing growth.
The conversation also addresses market volatility caused by Japan's potential interest rate hike and its impact on the yen carry trade. Don raises concerns about imminent challenges in the bond market, which holds more significance than the stock market, as credit could get turned off when countries reach a point of no return. He advises investing in gold and silver as alternatives during economic instability and predicts significant price increases for these metals.
Don also anticipates that gold miners will benefit from a rate cutting cycle due to their improved margins during recessions.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:07 - Gold & Recent Fed Policy5:46 - Trends and Gold8:29 - Fed Cuts & History14:10 - 70s Inflation or Deflation17:20 - Metrics & Data Revisions22:37 - BOJ & Western Volatility26:20 - Political Extremes32:15 - Asset Tops & Metals36:40 - Debt Servicing & GDP40:00 - Rate Cuts & the Miners45:37 - Insider Activity?47:33 - Share Dilution & Red Flags54:38 - Fall Market Direction1:01:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold's growth influenced by U.S.'s weakening economy & global uncertainty, with floor at $2,200 due to inverse relationship with economy.
Federal Reserve's dilemma managing inflation & interest rates due to historic debt levels.
Concerns about economic data reliability & potential 50 basis point rate cut as signs of slowing growth emerge.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Free Trial: https://www.goldstockdata.com/freetrialSubstack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
Nick Giambruno: The Failure of Central Planning and Central Banks
jeudi 5 septembre 2024 • Durée 41:58
Tom welcomes back Nick Giambruno, founder of The Financial Underground and editor-in-chief of its premium investment research publication. Nick criticizes central planning and the Fed's role in managing inflation, arguing that central banks, cannot effectively manage interest rates due to their antithesis to free markets.
Giambruno deemed the steepest rate-hiking cycle by the Fed to combat decades-high inflation futile because raising rates to a level impacting inflation would bankrupt the US government. He considers claims of victory over inflation propaganda, as essential prices like electricity bills and food hadn't reached pre-pandemic levels.
Nick touches on the potential politicization of Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead of elections and the influence of politics on its actions. The discussion covers escalating debt and interest expenses, now the largest federal budget item, trapping the United States in a cycle of currency debasement.
Giambruno advises investing in hard assets like gold and precious metals as a long-term savings vehicle, and suggests considering gold mining stocks to speculate on fiat currency debasement. He favors royalty companies over individual mining stocks due to reduced risk.
The potential impact of the BRICS creating their own trading currency on the US dollar and the changing global order was discussed, suggesting a developing multipolar world where other countries take larger roles. Giambruno believs we are in a chaotic period, likening it to historical periods of power division, and advises individuals to consider alternatives like Latin America as a potential refuge.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Fed & Economic State5:00 - Politics, Inflation & CPI8:55 - Debt, Interest, & Debasement10:34 - Dollar Collapse Endgame18:11 - Asset Alternatives19:45 - Gold Miners & Rate Cuts21:12 - Commodities in General22:40 - Miners & Royalties24:25 - Lack of Understanding29:14 - Short Term Gambling31:25 - BRICS Trend & Conflict35:18 - Historic Parallels37:23 - Have a Backup Plan39:20 - West Political Shift?41:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Central banks, including the Fed, cannot effectively manage interest rates due to their being the antithesis of free markets.
Investing in hard assets like gold and precious metals is advised as a long-term savings vehicle.
The interview touched on potential politicization of Federal Reserve monetary policy and the influence of political considerations on its actions.
Guest Links:Website: https://financialunderground.comTwitter:https://x.com/FinancialUnderWebsite: https://nickgiambruno.com
Nick Giambruno is a renowned speculator and international investor. He's the Founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of its premium investment research publication Contra Speculator.
Nick travels the world searching for lucrative investment opportunities in overlooked markets.
Nick specializes in identifying Big Picture geopolitical and economic trends ahead of the crowd. His approach to investing also focuses on profiting from distortions in the market. This includes identifying unfounded pessimism in beaten-up industries, which creates opportunities for enormous gains.
He writes about geopolitics, value investing in crisis markets, Bitcoin, international banking, second passports, international diversification, and surviving a financial collapse, among other topics.
Nick has traveled to over 60 countries and lived in six of them. He formerly worked in the Middle East with a Dubai-based investment bank.
He has been featured in The Economist, Forbes, Zero Hedge, Seeking Alpha, The Herald of Zimbabwe, The Keiser Report, MoneyWeek, Casey Research, International Man, The Crux, Gold Newsletter, The Jet Setter Show, Lew Rockwell.com, The Tom Woods Show, International Living Magazine, Wall St for Main St, Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing, AntiWar.com, The Power & Market Report,
Jeffrey Christian: Gold and Silver, The US Election – Existential Implications
mercredi 4 septembre 2024 • Durée 54:32
Tom welcomes back the Managing Partner of the CPM Group, Jeffrey Christian to discuss the Fed, Gold and the current economic realities of U.S. and the globe. Jeff shares his views on the Fed aiming for a long-term inflation average of around 2%, with fluctuations accepted between 1.3% and 2.8%. He asserts that while the target remains unchanged, the Fed is being more explicit about it. He speculates on the reasons why inflation is "acceptable" to the Fed.
Jeffrey discusses the likely September interest rate reduction and potential surprises. He anticipates a quarter-point decrease followed by further evaluations in November and December due to recessionary fears.
Jeff discusses the US economy's influence on the global stage, the significance of the upcoming US election, the importance of data reliability in today's digital age, and the drivers of gold and silver prices.
Central banks' roles in gold demand, with decreasing holdings by developed countries and emerging economies buying for monetary reserves, are also explored. The history of non-alignment among developing countries and the uncertain future direction of BRICS is touched upon.
Jeff explains the drivers of long-term silver prices including investment and industrial fabrication demands, with relatively low net investment demand leading to unremarkable price performance. Industrial demand for platinum and palladium is substantial but not expected to surge significantly. Fear acts as a catalyst for investments into these metals although there primary use is industrial rather than having a monetary function.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:08 - Fed Anticipation & CPI3:25 - Acceptable Inflation?5:33 - A Fed Sept. Surprise?8:50 - Recession Risk & Fed10:00 - Global Effects13:04 - 2024 Politics & Markets16:23 - U.S. Policy & Regulations21:30 - Ignorance & Progress24:12 - Gold & Silver Outlook28:43 - Long-Term Thoughts36:25 - Dollar Vs. Gold Demand40:50 - BRICS Alliance45:47 - Drivers for Silver49:13 - Platinum & Palladium52:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Fed's fall rate expectations and possibility of a surprise.
Global economic outlook and what to expect around the election cycle.
Gold's global role and the limited monetary role of other precious metals.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLCWebsite: https://www.cpmgroup.com/Questions Email: info@cpmgroup.comYouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
He has advised many of the world's largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.
Parallel Mike: The Red Alert – America’s Financial Instability and the World’s Response
vendredi 30 août 2024 • Durée 01:04:40
Tom welcomes back, Parallel Mike. Mike is the host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares finance, geopolitics and personal liberty content. The conversation begins with a thought-provoking discussion about the global ramifications of the United States' current monetary and fiscal instability. As the world's leading power with its reserve currency, military might, and cultural influence, American financial or fiscal upheaval could ignite kinetic, cyber, and psychological conflicts worldwide.
Mike elucidates the intricate relationships between national power structures and influential financial entities. He issues a grave warning concerning the potential consequences if America faces a significant financial crisis or recession, stressing the significance of acknowledging societal drivers fueling long-term currency devaluation and consumerist attitudes.
Mike scrutinized the distribution of funds during the post-pandemic economic relief package, with a considerable portion allocated to the wealthy class but many individuals receiving stimulus checks. The ensuing savings resulted in inflation that didn't fully manifest until later, leading to price spikes in luxury sectors like watches and yachts. Now spent, these markets are witnessing declines.
Mike asserts that the global economy, especially Europe, is undergoing a significant downturn, marked by widespread corporate layoffs and potential employment consequences. Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Fed meeting suggests an upcoming rate cut, which could impact the upcoming presidential election. However, rate cuts alone may not revive the economy, potentially leading to additional monetary stimulus.
Mike expresses concerns about escalating interest rates jeopardizing bank balance sheets. He is critical of pervasive accounting deceptions in the financial sector, cautioning of a potential implosion if public trust is eroded. Gold has historically served as a protective shield against collapsed financial systems by major players holding gold reserves as insurance.
Mike endorses value investing in the current market and advises against impending downturns leading to liquidity crises and widespread sell-offs. He suggests maintaining a portion of ones portfolio for speculation and emphasizes understanding risks in investment strategies. Despite the risks, he also points out historical instances where commodities delivered multiple cycles of returns following initial liquidity booms and inflations. He concludes by advocating investments beyond mere financial assets, such as health, relationships, and community.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:58 - Global Dependency on U.S.6:25 - Saviour Syndrome?12:33 - Pass The Debt Parcel20:39 - Deficits & Delinquencies27:24 - Saving The System33:56 - Banks & Higher Rates38:25 - Possible Solutions47:09 - Riskiest Assets57:58 - Russia in Contrast1:01:55 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
American financial instability could spark global conflicts: Mike warns of potential consequences.
Mike highlights pandemic wealth distribution issues and how they drove inflation in goods afteerwards.
Mike discusses implications of Jerome Powell's dovish stance, potential economic downturn, and the role of gold in protecting assets.
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYt8UcqG2wvkehnmiF_9AkwTwitter: https://twitter.com/parallel_mikePatreon: https://patreon.com/parallelsystemsBook Reference: https://thegreattaking.com/
Mike is a precious metal's investor, organic farmer and host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares content relating to finance, geopolitics and personal liberty.
Doomberg: The Future of Energy – The Unwavering Power of Reliability Over Hype
jeudi 29 août 2024 • Durée 54:43
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Doomberg, author of the Doomberg Substack, for a discussion on the science hype cycle and its impact on investments. The science hype cycle refers to the persistent overhyping of scientific innovations, such as solid state batteries, fusion, room temperature superconductors, and cancer cures, which often take decades to materialize. Despite progress, solid state batteries face inherent challenges due to safety concerns and complexity. Samsung's recent announcement of a silver-intensive solid state battery may boost silver demand but diminishes its near-term relevance for investors.
Next, the conversation shifts to the automobile industry, focusing on plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). PHEVs reduce regional gasoline consumption efficiently, but China's competitive edge in manufacturing affordable cars, driven by access to intellectual property, lower labor costs, and less stringent regulations, poses a significant challenge. Consumers favor affordable PHEVs over luxury BEVs, believed to be saturated in demand.
The discussion touches upon the carbon footprint of battery production for electric vehicles and the importance of recycling them. The focus should be on addressing pollution rather than just reducing carbon emissions. China's lenient environmental regulations give it an edge in industries like magnesium production.
Doomberg advocates continued investment in nuclear, natural gas, and existing hydroelectric power due to their reliability and suitability. He dismisses fusion reactors as unnecessary distractions from proven nuclear technologies. Small modular reactors and thorium reactors hold potential but lag behind large modular reactors, which offer known designs and predictable supply chains.
The conversation addresses the Russia-Ukraine conflict's implications for energy markets, Russia's role as a nuclear superpower, and the consequences of NATO involvement. Doomberg expresses concerns about the conflict's outcome and its impact on gold as a neutral reserve asset amidst geopolitical tensions and the bifurcation of the world into G7 and BRICS. He concludes by advocating for thoughtful consideration of military conflicts and their consequences, and introspection about the wisdom of engaging in war.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:08 - Science Hype Cycle4:19 - Battery Lifespan, & Silver8:30 - EV Costs, China, & Hybrids13:37 - Western EV Demand14:49 - Carbon Use Comparisons17:03 - Pollution & Carbon22:13 - Efficiency & Reuse26:56 - West GRID Solutions30:00 - U.S. Election Outcomes35:06 - New Energy Tech37:35 - Fusion Technology?39:30 - SMR & Thorium41:05 - Nuclear Proliferation44:50 - Russia & Ukraine48:30 - Global Bifurcation & Gold50:52 - Dollar & Military Spending52:53 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Science innovations often face long development timelines and are overhyped. Examples include solid state batteries and fusion reactors.
China's competitive edge in automobile manufacturing poses challenges for electric vehicle markets.
Continued investment in reliable energy sources like nuclear, natural gas, and hydroelectric power is advocated.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergTWebsite: https://doomberg.substack.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
Garrett Goggin: Gold Miners are on the Brink of Exciting Returns
mercredi 28 août 2024 • Durée 43:42
Tom welcomes Garrett Goggin, a seasoned financial analyst with expertise in trading and a strong emphasis on alternative assets like gold and silver. Goggin expresses his views on the current economic climate marked by the U.S. dollar's value erosion due to inflation and escalating debt. He regards gold and silver as reliable stores of value for future decades.
Goggin further explores the significance of the yield curve inversion, which he believes signals an impending recession and market correction. In past instances, gold has doubled in value following a yield curve inversion and a subsequent recession. He anticipates that this trend will continue, possibly leading to another gold price doubling. Institutions are predicted to invest in the gold sector as its performance continues to improve.
The conversation touches on the gold market's current dynamics, including the growing interest from investors that is not reflected in GLD shares outstanding but is visible in the growth of silver miners. The demand for silver exceeds production and existing stocks, potentially leading to a deficit and an escalating price surge.
Central banks' role in gold prices and their correlation with rate cuts during economic downturns are also discussed. Goggin predicts that as inflation persists and economies decelerate, gold will remain a valuable hedge against economic turmoil.
Garrett shares his philosophy for constructing a portfolio in gold and silver, focusing on analyzing companies rather than historical ratios or charts, emphasizing the significance of high-grade deposits and competent management. He advocates investing in inflation protection machines like royalties due to their fixed costs, minimal management, and potential for exploration success without being impacted by cost inflation. Smaller explorers and developers that can generate significant value through successful drill holes are also suggested.
The conversation delves into the characteristics of mining companies that make them attractive takeover targets, with a focus on high-grade projects, low cost operations, and cash generation. Royalties are highlighted for their exploration upside and potential to significantly increase shareholder value over time.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Background & Alt Assets2:05 - Market/Economy Overview3:44 - Recession & Market Crash4:50 - Gold Thoughts & Momentum9:13 - Inflation Outlook10:57 - Gold During Rate Cuts11:36 - Silvers Performance?16:17 - Portfolio Balance19:57 - Qualities in Miners25:14 - Upsides to Royalties?30:02 - Takeover Targets31:52 - Royalty Structures34:45 - Technology & Mining39:43 - A Gold Top Looks Like?43:00 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://Goldenportfolio.comX: https://x.com/GarrettGoggin
Garrett Goggin's career began in 1995 at the New York Stock Exchange, where he filled orders amidst the specialist booths. The NYSE was the economic heartbeat, its vibrant atmosphere pulsing with price adjustments following breaking news. Post-NYSE, Goggin joined a derivative arbitrage firm based in the UK and Ireland, marking his introduction to this niche trading strategy.
However, his fascination lay in gold, silver, and commodities. In contrast to the unpredictability of longer-term investments, these markets offered a sense of control. Goggin's conviction was that mastery of commodity markets wasn't contingent on luck but knowledge.
His quest for gold and silver took him across continents, visiting numerous mines and conversing with their overseers. For over fifteen years, he partnered with esteemed research entities Gold Stock Analyst and Stansberry Research, serving as a precious metals analyst.
A respected figure at prestigious gold conferences such as the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada's (PDAC) Toronto event and Denver Gold Show Europe in Zurich, Goggin is a preferred resource for leading gold and silver developers due to his insightful research.
...
John Williams: From Fake Stats to Real Repercussions – The Consequences of an Inflationary Depression
vendredi 23 août 2024 • Durée 59:15
Tom welcomes back economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to explore the manipulation and misrepresentation of economic data by government institutions like the Fed and Treasury. Williams expresses concerns over the intentional distortion of inflation and GDP statistics, which can deceive the public and impact their decisions, potentially harming the economy and markets. A notable example is the strategic petroleum reserve being drained to artificially lower gasoline prices before elections. Accurate data, Williams asserts, is vital for informed policymaking and avoiding exacerbated economic issues.
Inaccurate inflation statistics are in part leading to financial hardships for many households. Despite this issue's potential political significance, no candidate has addressed it. He also explores the consequences of this discrepancy and its impact on consumer sentiment, suggesting that a future political campaign platform focusing on this could gain substantial support. Conversing about the potential economic pain or increased debt needed to rectify these issues, Williams acknowledges the challenges but stresses their necessity for improving conditions for the average American.
Williams raises concerns about the reliability of reported GDP figures, arguing they are heavily manipulated and bear little connection to real economic conditions. He highlights the disparity between reported GDP and underlying economic indicators like retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts, attributing this gap to political constructs and the Fed's money supply expansion. Williams warns of potential risks from an inflationary recession or depression and encourages individuals to protect themselves by holding physical assets like gold, real estate, or other hard assets. He concludes that average citizens should be concerned about economic instability arising from these factors.
John suggests that a recession already began during the pandemic and consumers should use common sense when evaluating government information.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Real Statistics & Fed13:03 - Wages & Inflation14:25 - Party Politics & Fixes18:28 - Political Will & Debt24:52 - Gold & Inflation28:19 - Real GDP/GDI Numbers36:56 - Consumer Sentiment43:22 - Consistent Benchmark?44:57 - SPR Importance & Need?50:53 - Reality is Hitting Now52:42 - Federal Debt & Interest55:12 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Williams warns of manipulated economic data affecting public decisions and markets.
Williams emphasizes the financial impact of inaccurate inflation statistics on average Americans.
GDP figures are criticized as heavily manipulated, with gold suggested as a hedge against potential instability.
Guest Links:Website: https://shadowstats.comE-Mail: johnwilliams@shadowstats.com
Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.
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