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A Housing Market “Recovery” Is Further Away Than We Thought
Épisode 469
jeudi 15 octobre 2026 • Durée 37:36
The housing market isn’t going back to “normal” anytime soon. In fact, it could take significantly longer than many of us thought. Rates are around 7.5%, median home prices hover near $400,000, but your salary is not keeping pace. Something needs to change: is it rates, prices, incomes, or a combination of all three?
I did the math and have an answer for how long it will actually take for the housing market to recover.
So first, what does a "normal" housing market actually mean? We’re going to look at two data sets: 1989-2026 and 2019 levels, the last year before pandemic-fueled inflation started to boil the housing market. Back in 2019, Americans spent only around 15% of their income on housing payments; today, it’s nearly 25%. So, how do we return to a market where homes are actually affordable?
I’ll walk through each scenario: wages rising significantly, mortgage rates falling, and home prices crashing, and then paint a picture of what happens if all of them (reasonably) move in the right direction.
If someone is convincing you the market is about to get much cheaper, or much more affordable, or that you should just wait until it’s easier to buy…good luck.
In This Episode We Cover
Exactly what needs to happen for housing affordability to return to “normal” levels
The three “levers” that control housing affordability, and which are likely to move
Why it could take years (or even decades) to get back to the average affordability level
Are we stuck in a new era of mega-expensive housing payments?
Why waiting to buy a home (or your next rental) could be a very long bet
And So Much More!
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On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
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NAR Housing Affordability Index
Grab the Book, Real Estate by the Numbers
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Nearly Half of Buyers Get Concessions as Fed Warns Prices Must Drop
Épisode 468
mardi 13 octobre 2026 • Durée 25:35
A Fed official says what we’re all thinking: home prices must drop—and sellers seem to have gotten the message. Per a recent Redfin report, 44.7% of home sales included seller concessions such as price cuts, rate buydowns, covering closing costs, or even renovations, repairs, and expensive layout changes. So, if you’re a buyer, how do you get the most from your seller on the next deal?
We’re back with this week’s headlines! We’ve brought good news for buyers, scary news for sellers, and strange-smelling stories about multifamily investors. Seller desperation is peaking as concessions offer buyers the biggest opportunity in six years. Even the Fed is taking note, as one official warns about home affordability and why prices need to drop to make progress.
Now, what the heck is that black stuff behind the fridge? That’s the question multifamily investors are asking themselves as mold-based litigation ramps up and renters prepare to get paydays thanks to some severe spores. If you own a home in the Northwest, the South, or anywhere else that gets humid, here is what you should do to avoid a pricey repair.
In This Episode We Cover
The rise in seller concessions and how to unlock price cuts, lower mortgage rates, or covered closing costs
The $70K concession James is making to literally rearrange a floor plan to sell a house
A Fed official’s warning on home prices and why they may still be too high
The deals popping up and sitting on the market that could be solid rentals
A major mold problem: Why you should check your rental ASAP (before a lawyer gets involved)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
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Redfin: Nearly Half of Homebuyers Get Concessions From Sellers as Most Markets Tip in Buyers’ Favor
Realtor: Fed Official Sounds Warning on Housing as Affordability Hits 21-Year Low
Bisnow: Mold Is Growing Into Major Problem For Apartment Owners
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Grab The Book on Negotiating Real Estate
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The American Economy Enters Its “Lost Decade”
Épisode 467
jeudi 8 octobre 2026 • Durée 36:11
America could enter what nobody wants—a “lost decade.”
No huge gains, no massive price drops, just a slow, stagnating market where inflation eats away at the returns we once thought were normal. Stocks are already massively overpriced according to the CAPE Ratio and the Buffett Indicator, real estate is unaffordable and already seeing real price declines, and commercial has fallen off the proverbial cliff. Can we go up from here? The argument isn’t looking optimistic.
So, if it’s about to be a whole lot harder to make a return on real estate, in the stock market, or anything else worth buying, what should you do?
Today, Dave breaks down America’s “lost decade” and what to do to protect your wealth from inflation erosion that looks more likely by the day. There are ways to maintain strong real estate returns along the way, but most investors take the easy route and fail to profit because of it.
You can escape this “lost decade,” but only if you’re prepared for it.
In This Episode We Cover
America’s “lost decade” that could upend returns for real estate, stocks, and more
The one asset class that has potential upside in the coming years
Why “not investing” is not a strategy that will save you from wealth erosion
Why we could go years without home price appreciation or solid stock gains
The two indicators flashing right now that are signaling an overpriced market
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
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Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
On the Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
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America Doesn’t Have a Housing “Shortage” (It’s Something Much Worse)
Épisode 466
mardi 6 octobre 2026 • Durée 44:06
For years, we’ve been told that the United States is short millions of homes, and that building more units is the key to solving the affordable housing crisis. But a 2024 study from Kirk McClure and Alex Schwartz reaches a different conclusion and suggests that the housing shortage narrative may be built on a shakier foundation than we’ve been led to believe.
Kirk, professor emeritus at the University of Kansas, joins today’s show to dig into the actual Census data gathered from 2000-2020 and whether it really points to a nationwide shortage…or something much different.
If we don’t have a supply problem, why are homes and rents still so expensive? Should policymakers rethink their push for new construction? And where could government dollars have the greatest impact?
We’ll unpack the implications of Kirk’s findings, why home prices can remain elevated when there are millions of vacant homes available, and whether today’s housing policies are actually helping the people who need it most. These answers could upend how we think about the housing crisis and give real estate investors another perspective on where the market might be headed.
In This Episode We Cover
Findings from Kirk’s research on America’s housing “shortage”
Where government dollars can actually help solve housing affordability
The real reason home prices and rents haven’t fallen, despite oversupply
Why declining household formation is tied to affordability, not housing supply
Why America’s K-shaped economy continues to worsen
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
A Glut of New Inventory is on the Way—How Should Investors Prepare?
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Study: Where Is the Housing Shortage?
Decennial Census Data
Buy the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-466.
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The Trillion-Dollar Bubble Grows Bigger
Épisode 465
jeudi 1 octobre 2026 • Durée 36:23
AI could lead to an extinction event, but don’t worry, the stock market will be hitting all-time highs on the way there!
We’re entering a new phase of the artificial intelligence race where now CEOs from OpenAI and Anthropic are practically begging for industry-wide regulation. This all seems too… convenient. What’s really behind this new AI regulation push, and how close are we to a society-shaking event?
Dave is back to give his full take on the AI race. A lot has happened recently—warnings of dangers to humanity, rogue agents setting up untraceable communications, and AI CEOs conveniently wanting to join forces. First, we’ll touch on the Hugging Face incident that triggered an unprompted cyberattack that human oversight was kept out of; then the economic risks to all Americans (what happens if this AI bubble bursts); and finally why these CEOs are suddenly pushing regulation so hard.
Let’s get into the financials, though: these companies are losing billions of dollars every year and have extremely optimistic projections to hit. The question is, what happens if they’re off the mark? Past bubbles resulted in an almost 80% stock market crash…but this time, the AI industry is even bigger.
In This Episode We Cover
Why top AI companies suddenly want the government to “regulate” the industry
The chances of an extinction event now that AI agents can go rogue without our knowledge
The risks to real estate, the stock market, and many Americans’ retirement accounts
The trillion-dollar bubble that is looking a lot like the dot-com and railroad bubbles of decades past
Why citizens from other countries are so much more optimistic about AI than Americans
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
On The Market 390 - An Economic Bubble is Forming…Just Not for Real Estate
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy
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The Path to 8% Mortgage Rates
Épisode 464
mardi 29 septembre 2026 • Durée 27:54
8% mortgage rates are now on the table, and unfortunately, that’s not even the high end of estimates for where we’re going next. With bond yields hitting 20-year peaks and no end in sight for rising inflation, we may be stuck here for a while. If you’re starting to sweat, don’t worry—we are, too. Thankfully, it’s not all bad news for the housing market, because those who pivot will profit.
After a little too much anxiety, Dave called James and Kathy to get their read on mortgage rates—what does an investor do when refinancing is off the table, selling means cutting prices and concessions, and even renovating is still so expensive? The housing market is splitting, with some sides doing great, and the others struggling to survive.
James gives his full take on how flips, renovations, and BRRRRs are doing right now, plus why he’s still excited for what is about to come in winter. Kathy is loving the builder concessions that are only getting more plentiful as rates rise, with a surprising rental helping float her portfolio. Dave is still a bit nervous and asks: should he sell the house he’s living in?
Buyers, this winter is about to be a big one. Sellers, it’s time to prepare. Investors, look at your property plans immediately after this episode.
In This Episode We Cover
The case for 8% mortgage rates (or even 11%-12% rates in the near future!)
Why we (probably) still won’t see a housing crash scenario
How to change your investment property plan if refinancing or selling was your exit
It’s about to be a “dead winter” for sellers, but what about for buyers?
Should Dave sell his own home and go back to renting? (serious question!)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
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On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
James' BiggerPockets Profile
Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile
HousingWire: Mortgage rates: 8%, 6% or the base case?
Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-464.
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The Housing Market Correction Is Spreading
Épisode 463
jeudi 24 septembre 2026 • Durée 35:53
The housing market correction is about to get worse. Before, the Northeast and Midwest markets were insulated from the sizable price drops happening in places like Texas and Florida, but not anymore. The correction is spreading, and the once “safe” markets are creeping closer and closer to price cuts, concessions, and desperate sellers becoming the norm.
The question is: does this snowball into a full-blown housing crash, or is the housing market strong enough to keep us in “correction” territory? Dave is back, and this time, he’s going deep on what’s next for the housing market.
Things are changing, and not in the way sellers would want. Demand is starting to fall as buyers get boxed out of the market and high mortgage rates make homes more unaffordable. Sellers once stuck to their prices or took properties off the market to wait, but now they're offering sizable concessions and price cuts. The supply-demand equilibrium has shifted, and deals are about to get even sweeter.
So, if you’re buying today when prices very well could continue to slide, how much of a discount should you go for, and at what point do prices start to bottom?
In This Episode We Cover
Signs of more seller distress as concessions rise and price cuts grow
Why you should not believe the home price appreciation most data reports
The real reason why homebuying demand is steadily falling, and sellers have fewer options
The housing market “flip”: Why safer markets (Midwest, Northeast) could start to see price pressure
How much of a discount you should ask for when buying in this housing market
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
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On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Calculated Risk Blog
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Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
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Rates Were Hiked: Here’s What Investors Should Do Now
Épisode 462
mardi 22 septembre 2026 • Durée 31:43
The Federal Reserve hiked rates last week, but did it actually help the housing market? Our panel of real estate investing experts isn’t all that bummed by potentially higher rates and less housing market activity—why? Because new opportunities are forming thanks to the Fed’s recent rate hike—opportunities that could make deals even better to buy in 2026 and into 2027.
We’re back discussing the biggest housing market headlines from last week. Obviously, we can’t talk about headlines without touching on the Fed meeting and subsequent rate hike. Ripples from that decision could start showing up in the real estate market soon—price cuts for some properties, canceled listings for others, and stalled sellers who refuse to budge but won’t get bids.
So, what should investors do now to ensure they’re picking up solid deals with the likelihood that prices could continue dropping across many markets? The full panel is sharing what they’re actually doing now—from paying points to cutting insurance costs, getting HELOCs ready, and more.
You can use this market to your advantage—and we already are.
In This Episode We Cover
The aftermath of the first Fed rate hike since 2023 (and what it means for home prices)
Trump's 1% federal funds rate demand and whether it could actually happen
Will sellers begin pulling out of the market as buyers begin to drop off?
What we’re doing right now to buy better deals and sell the ones that aren’t performing
The things that must be solved before interest rates can come back down
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
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On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
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Quartz: Trump demands 1% interest rates after Fed hike, backs Warsh
Reuters: US homebuilder sentiment drops to 12-month low in September
Grab Henry’s Book, Real Estate Deal Maker
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You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Épisode 461
jeudi 17 septembre 2026 • Durée 31:55
The U.S. government may have just lost the war on mortgage rates.
Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced one of its biggest bond buyback programs in years—a whopping $6 billion allocated to (hopefully) lower bond yields, and by proxy, interest rates. Not only did it backfire, but it may have angered the bond investors so much that the market’s recovery is now in jeopardy. Do we still have any hope of lowering bond yields and mortgage rates so the housing market can get back in business?
Today, we’re breaking down the good, the bad, and the ugly buybacks of the bond market, how this will affect your mortgage rates over the next year, and what can be done to spur confidence in bond yields (and the U.S. government). Dave even gives his mortgage rate prediction for 2027, with a range of where we could end up by this time next year.
If rates stay high and housing demand gets even more subdued, the buying opportunities, price cuts, and seller concessions could only increase. Are you going to take advantage?
In This Episode We Cover
A full update on the bond market and how the U.S. government is trying to save yields
Dave’s 2027 mortgage rate prediction and whether we could go even higher than we are now
The failed bond “buyback” strategy that could take a long time to recover from
Three reasons why bond yields (and mortgage rates) are surging right now
How the Fed raising rates could actually lower your mortgage rate in the future
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
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On The Market 436 - The Fed Signals a Reversal in Rates
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Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy
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This Is Better Than the 1% Rule (New Real Estate Rule)
Épisode 460
mardi 15 septembre 2026 • Durée 30:41
The rules of real estate investing have changed.
For years, investors were using the one-percent rule to quickly determine if a real estate deal would cash flow. But the one-percent rule, rent-to-price ratio, and other common rules of thumb have a glaring blind spot. They account for purchase price, but they don’t account for expenses.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates, taxes, and insurance have all risen across the board—expenses that can easily kill your cash flow.
So, Dave’s come up with a new rule of thumb you can use to quickly analyze rental properties and markets. He’s calling it the rent-to-payment ratio. By comparing estimated rents to the estimated PITI payment itself, you’ll have a much better idea of whether a rental property will actually cash flow month to month.
And today, we’re not just breaking down how the formula works. Dave also built an entire spreadsheet that ranks U.S. real estate markets by their rent-to-payment ratios. Whether you’re looking for the best cash flow markets to invest in or a quick way to weed out unprofitable properties, this is the kind of math you need to make sharper investing decisions in 2026.
In This Episode We Cover
The “new” rule of thumb for finding great real estate deals and rental markets
Why rent-to-price ratio is a flawed metric (and which ratio to use instead)
Why the popular one-percent rule no longer works in 2026
The top 10 real estate markets with the highest rent-to-payment ratios
How to bake today’s mortgage rates, taxes, and insurance into your initial analysis
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show!
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BiggerPockets Calculators
The Summer 2026 Rent-to-Payment Report: Where You Can Still Cash Flow with Real Estate
Grab Dave’s book, Real Estate by the Numbers
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On The Market, podcast de BiggerPockets - Statistiques, épisodes et classements - My Podcast Data
