In the Company of Mavericks – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Shepherd Neame has been brewing beer on the same site in Faversham, Kent, since 1573. That's before Shakespeare. Before the King James Bible. Before anyone called a pub a pub. It has survived two World Wars, the Temperance Movement, the craft beer revolution, a very public family falling-out, and a pandemic that shut down every pub in Britain overnight.

Jonathan Neame is the fifth-generation CEO, a qualified barrister, a former management consultant, and a man who once swore he would never work for his father. He changed his mind. In this conversation, Jeremy McKeown talks to Jonathan about family governance and succession, the economics of the British pub, why three pubs are closing every day in the UK right now, and what the government could do tomorrow to stop it. They also get into the craft beer revolution, the bifurcation between London and rural pub markets, and what it means to run a nearly 500-year-old business on a site where James Watt installed his second-ever steam engine in 1789.

Jonathan's answer to why Shepherd Neame has survived while almost everyone else hasn't: they're not in the alcohol business. They're in the socialising business. Beer is just the best lubricant mankind has come up with in 7,000 years.

Guest: Jonathan Neame, CEO, Shepherd Neame

Sponsored by: Progressive Equity & Finance Talking

Brought to you by Progressive Equity and Finance Talking.

Schrödinger's Strait & The Gems Among The Rubble

Episode Summary: Dive into the absurdities of modern macro markets and the hidden value in UK equities in this episode of Mavericks. Host Jeremy McKeown brings together an investing "odd couple": Laurie Hulse, UK small-cap stock picker and manager of the Onward Opportunities Investment Trust, and The Shrub, a world-renowned meme trader, parody hedge fund manager, and macro commentator. Together, they explore how to navigate market volatility and uncover wealth-building strategies by blending bottom-up micro-cap stock picking with top-down macro analysis.

In This Episode, We Cover:

• The Reality of Public Markets vs Private Equity: Laurie reflects on the 3-year anniversary of Onward Opportunities, its graduation from AIM to the LSE primary listing, and the brutal, honest "mark-to-market" nature of public markets. The guests contrast this with the "deferred reckoning" of private markets, discussing the potential market impact of massive private valuations and the looming SpaceX IPO.
• The "Golden Age of Grift" & Market Absurdity: The Shrub explains his philosophy that "once you realise it's all nonsense, it starts to make sense". He breaks down why global markets ignore geopolitical crises—joking that as long as the S&P is above its 200-day moving average, even an asteroid strike is "priced in". He introduces the concept of "Schrödinger's Strait", where vital global shipping lanes are treated by the market as both open and closed simultaneously.
• The Capital Cycle & The UK Discount: Discover why a decade-long slump in UK equities might be the perfect setup for massive returns. The Shrub outlines the "capital cycle," explaining that the longer an asset is ignored, the more explosive its eventual upcycle will be. They discuss "Klaus," the imaginary European pension fund manager, and why trillions in capital reshoring to Europe could trigger a massive rally for UK and European assets.
• Gems Among the Rubble: Laurie shares real-world case studies of finding heavily discounted global businesses listed in the UK, including the highly successful acquisition of marine data business Windward and the podcasting platform Audioboom.
• Exit Liquidity & Survival Strategies: The Mavericks discuss why investors must plan their exits before they buy, whether through takeovers, US dual-listings, or graduating to larger markets, especially when dealing with illiquid small-cap stocks.

Listen to the end for actionable takeaways on building portfolio resilience and surviving the "clown show" of modern markets.

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The ideas discussed may not align with your personal risk appetite. Please do your own research and take responsibility for your wealth decisions.

Enjoyed this episode? Subscribe to Jeremy’s Substack, Hyperormal Times, for non-obvious insights into how the world really works and the investment implications the financial press often misses.

Last week, I was due to host a joint episode with Doomberg and Charlie Garcia, but diaries conspired against it. However, I got to do two recordings of influential Substackers covering global events and their implications: one through an energy lens, and the other, crafting a line of journalism that reminds me of the great PJ O'Rourke. 

Capital Mischief is an ambitious investment Substack project from a man who served six US Presidents, was decorated by US military intelligence, is an entrepreneur and investor, and, now in his mid-60s, is developing a long-held ambition to write freely about what he sees happening in the world.    

Charlie's detailed briefings on the build-up to the early stages of the Middle East war have been informative, timely and highly entertaining. 

We had a great chat. 

Be sure to subscribe to receive the full episode dropping soon on a podcast app near you. 

For today’s episode, I am joined by David Seaman of Alpha Cygni Asset Management for a conversation with two mavericks, an entrepreneur and an investor.

Angus Thirwell is the co-founder and CEO of Hotel Chocolat and was on Episode 4 in December 2021. Angus has just completed the sale of Hotel Chocolat to Mars for a value of £534m and has decided to roll most of his stake in the company into the Mars family structure as he sees an increased opportunity for the brand to grow under its new ownership. 

Gary Channon is the founder and CIO of Phoenix Asset Management with a disciplined value style of investing detailed in previous episodes with James Wilson. Gary heads a team that manages UK-listed investment vehicles, Aurora Investment Trust and Castelnau.  

We are treated to a master class in how Angus’s careful stewardship of his premium branded chocolate and the culture required to develop its full potential led him to his partnership with one of the world’s biggest and most successful family businesses.  

And how Gary’s disciplined approach to research and valuation delivered a stunning return by acquiring a 15% stake in Hotel Chocolat after its post-pandemic setback. 

We cover a lot of ground and discuss the health of the UK stock market, how to think about investing in consumer-facing businesses and how failing and learning from mistakes is an important part of developing a business whether in premium chocolate or asset management. 

Gary also talks about taking the funeral business Dignity private and this latest addition to the portfolio, Churchill China.      

Please enjoy our conversation with the mavericks, Angus Thirwell and Gary Channon.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity Research.

In today’s episode, I am joined by energy blogger and author Doomberg for a conversation about the necessity of energy in our lives, how we take it for granted and the implications for our economies and our politics.

Doomberg is a pen name and alias assuming the form of a green chicken online. Originally on Twitter and now on Substack, Doomberg has become the most popular financial newsletter on the platform.

Doomberg explains why he has chosen to operate anonymously, helping him explore and explain complex and technical aspects of the energy debate with unusual clarity often overlooked or ignored by mainstream media and policymakers.

In this fascinating discussion, Doomberg explains why energy is fundamental to human life, why our dizzying technical expertise in extracting hydrocarbons is overlooked and even denigrated by people whose very lives depend on it, what the connection is between energy and human flourishing, how our thinking has been held hostage by Malthusian beliefs of pessimism leading to energy crises, economic decline and political unrest. We also talk about the recent COP 28 gathering and the renewed pursuit of nuclear energy.

I have learnt much from Doomberg about energy, economics and how our world works. In so doing, he demonstrates the changing nature of our media and how the internet can be used as a force for an informed debate on important topics. I find his approach refreshing and inspiring.

Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick Doomberg.   

Brought to you by Progressive Equity Research.

Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans are joined by Scott Evans of the London Business School and co-compiler of the Deutsche Numis Market Indices to discuss the performance of mid and small-cap last year, over the long term, and what might be driving equity market performance in 2024. In addition, they mention updates from Concurrent Technologies and Gamma Communications from last week.   

Jeremy McKeown & Gareth Evans discuss the macro drivers behind this week's equity markets and some company updates that caught their attention. 

Companies mentioned this week include UK housebuilders, M&S, Marks Electrical, Sosander and Xaar. 

Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss the main market trends from last year and the outlook for 2024. They discuss the October pivot on rate expectations, the rise of the Magnificent Seven AI wonder stocks, the outlook for Chinese and UK equities, and will a recovery in China be inflationary or deflationary. Will Trump win the US election, and what are the market implications? What about the UK? Can it be the best-performing market in 2024?

Please press SUBSCRIBE so as not to miss future episodes. 
 
Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Tony Brewer of Likewise Group 

Guest co-host James Wilson of Phoenix Asset Management, manager of the Huginn Fund. 

A few weeks ago, James Wilson of Phoenix Asset Management joined me for a conversation with Tony Brewer, the founder and CEO of Likewise Group.

James had talked about Tony and his investment in AIM-listed Likewise on a previous episode, and I had been keen to get Tony on ever since.  

Tony has spent his entire adult life in the floor coverings business developing Headlam from a small textile distributor to the UK’s leading flooring supplier before leaving in 2016.

Two years later, at a time when many of us might consider slowing down, Tony set up Likewise and set about building national distribution, as James points out, this is a business where scale matters.

James is an investor who leaves few stones unturned when he seeks companies to join his concentrated and eclectic portfolio. With his questioning and observations, James brings to life the investment case for what one might believe to be an overly competitive and low-value-added business.    

This episode offers a fascinating insight into a man with a passion for carpet distribution and the views of a professional investor backing him to succeed.     

Please enjoy our conversation with the maverick, Tony Brewer.

Made possible by Progressive Equity Research.

Tony Brewer of Likewise Group 

Guest co-host James Wilson of Phoenix Asset Management, manager of the Huginn Fund. 

Have you ever wondered why small independent carpet shops can survive competing against the major multiple retailers?

In a previous episode, James Wilson of Phoenix Asset Management talked about Tony Brewer previously of Headlam and now the founder and CEO of AIM-listed Likewise. 

Coming soon I am rejoined by James for a fascinating chat with Tony, about his life in carpets.  

This episode gives a behind-the-scenes look at the complexities of the world of floor covering distribution, one man’s life’s passion for it and how a professional investor rates his chances of delivering long-term value from a business he founded in 2018. 

Made possible by Progressive Equity Research.