Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Hypernormal Investing: Growing Capital & Protecting Wealth Amid Radical Uncertainty

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Kevin Muir has spent thirty-five years making — and cataloguing — mistakes in markets, first as an equity derivatives trader on RBC Capital Markets' Toronto desk through the dot-com era, and for the last twenty-five years trading his own capital independently. Along the way, he built The Macro Tourist into one of the most widely read independent macro newsletters, and co-founded The Market Huddle podcast with Patrick Ceresna.

In this conversation, Kevin lays out his current framework for markets: why being right about a call and making a good investment are two different things, how his own conversion on Modern Monetary Theory reshaped the way he reads fiscal and monetary policy, and why he thinks the US is losing the structural advantage that made it the best-performing stock market on earth for the better part of two decades. We get into his read on Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve, his currency trade expressing a long-yen view, and his scepticism of the AI capex boom — not because the technology won't matter, but because of how the earnings behind it are being built.

Keywords / Tags: Kevin Muir, The Macro Tourist, Market Huddle podcast, macro investing, Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve, US dollar, US stock market outlook, Japanese yen trade, Swiss franc, AI bubble, earnings bubble, gold, Modern Monetary Theory, fiscal dominance, US midterm elections 2026, hedge fund psychology, trading discipline

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

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Damian Pudner — monetary economist, founder of the Great British Think Tank (GBTT), former Head of Rate Sales for EMEA at UBS.

A 25-year rates trader turned monetary economist explains why UK gilts trade at a "moron premium," why he'd scrap the Bank of England's 2% inflation target, and how he's actually positioning his own portfolio in bonds, equities and gold.

Damian explains why he's a "broad money" monetarist, why the Bank of England's 2% inflation target should be scrapped in favour of nominal GDP targeting, and why the Monetary Policy Committee needs more practitioners and fewer career academics. He unpacks the UK's persistent gilt-market "moron premium," lays out what a modern-day version of the 1976 IMF crisis could look like, and shares how he personally allocates across equities, short-duration bonds, gold and, notably, not Bitcoin. The conversation also covers Gary Stevenson's wealth-inequality argument, the real economic impact of AI, and why Damian believes Britain needs a Thatcher-, Reagan-, or Milei-style reset before the next election cycle.

UK gilts, Bank of England, monetary policy, inflation target, nominal GDP targeting, broad money, M4X, monetarism, moron premium, UK debt crisis, gold investing, Bitcoin vs gold, Gary Stevenson, quantitative easing, fiscal dominance, UK economy, bond investing, portfolio strategy, Great British Think Tank

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

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"Governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose." Stanley Druckenmiller's warning to his old protégé, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is the thread through a remarkable week. Bessent's "economic D-Day" on Iran and the dollar-as-weapon problem; the Black Wednesday irony of a man who broke the Bank of England now defending the bond price; Warsh's money-supply gauge flashing as M2 runs hot and the Treasury floods liquidity; Nvidia's blowout that answered demand — never the real doubt — while margins compress and a hot PCE print fully prices a December Fed hike; and Warsh's first Jackson Hole, where a frozen market waited on a chairman who refuses to give guidance. Plus the AI-vs-Middle East tug of war, gold and Bitcoin as the debasement scorecard, and a US move to lease Venezuela's oilfields. Essential listening for active investors on markets, capital and the cost of money.

investing, markets, macro, capital, stocks, bonds, Treasury yields, fiscal dominance, Scott Bessent, Stanley Druckenmiller, Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve, Jackson Hole, M2 money supply, PCE inflation, rate hike, Nvidia, AI bubble, gold, Bitcoin, debasement trade, Iran sanctions, Venezuela, OPEC

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Read the daily market notes at the Hypernormal Times on Substack. Subscribe, review, and share at Hypernormal Times on Substack.

The global financial system is running a fever, and this week the authorities declared war on the thermometer. Jeremy McKeown separates the signal from the theatre: why the surge in long-term Treasury, gilt and bund yields is a real-yield repricing of sovereign risk, not an inflation scare. Why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's surprise bond buyback moved markets for twelve hours and then failed. A put is a bluff with no printing press behind it. Why the AI chip sell-off was a discount-rate shift, not demand cracking. Why Japan and the yen carry trade are where the margin call sits. And why gold, now joined by Bitcoin, is voting no confidence in fiscal sanity. Essential listening for active investors trying to protect capital amid fiscal dominance, rising rates and the AI capex boom.

investing, markets, macro, stocks, capital, bonds, bond vigilantes, Treasury yields, fiscal dominance, Scott Bessent, bond buyback, Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, inflation, gold, Bitcoin, AI bubble, Nvidia, Anthropic, yen carry trade, Bank of Japan, Jackson Hole

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Why isn't oil at $200 with the Strait of Hormuz restricted? Rupert Mitchell — "The Blind Squirrel" — argues China has become a monopsony: the swing buyer of crude, putting an effective floor and ceiling on oil prices using storage tanks instead of quotas. He calls it the China Collar, and he thinks it will permanently re-rate energy equities.

We also cover why he's buying UK domestic mid-caps "on the bond floor", what replaces bonds now the 60/40 portfolio has stopped working, and the Monte Carlo runs where OpenAI and Anthropic are worth nothing.

A 25-year capital markets banker turned independent macro writer, Rupert publishes his own portfolio, losses included.

The Blind Squirrel Macro: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/

Hypernormal Times: https://jeremymckeown.substack.com/

In this episode:

An accidental banker: Barings, 1994 — five months before Leeson

Hong Kong ECM, and why the syndicate desk beat the prospectus

Inside a Chinese EV startup: "capitalism is a full-body contact sport in China"

BYD, Alibaba, Tencent — great company vs. great stock

Why a blind squirrel: strong convictions, loosely held

Leopold Aschenbrenner: the leverage lesson, not the fraud lesson

Is AI inflationary or deflationary? Both — and that's the problem

Valuing OpenAI and Anthropic when 20–45% of scenarios are zeros

The China Collar: monopsony, storage, and the swing buyer of crude

Why energy should be 2.5x its current S&P weight

The UK on its bond floor: FTSE 250, 12x earnings, battle-hardened managers

Investment trusts: getting paid twice when private equity bids

Life after 60/40: CTAs, long-dated crude, gold — and why not Bitcoin

EM local currency debt and 40% African exposure

The new Fed chair's straitjacket, and moving the 2% goalposts

Dollar/yen, the 30-year JGB, and the Forrest Gump of global macro

china collar, oil price, monopsony, crude oil, energy equities, opec, strait of hormuz, uk equities, ftse 250, investment trusts, closed-end funds, nav discount, 60/40 portfolio, portfolio diversification, cta, managed futures, trend following, gold, emerging market debt, macro investing, rupert mitchell, blind squirrel macro, openai valuation, anthropic valuation, ai bubble, federal reserve, dollar yen, jgb, byd, tencent, china state capitalism.

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

This week's easing was cyclical. The things that hardened were structural. That's the week in a sentence.

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Markets spent five days exhaling — a soft CPI, a softer PPI, the AI trade roaring back — while quietly signing up for an indefinite oil siege, a $2 trillion deficit funded at the worst prices since before the financial crisis, and a boom in structured credit that rhymes uncomfortably with 2008. This week: the stagflation trap the Fed can't lever its way out of; Nvidia becoming "the bank of mum and dad" for the AI industry as Wall Street securitises the boom; why the market celebrated a number the Fed doesn't even target; fiscal dominance on the tape; and Japan's cheap-money anchor starting to drag. Plus the cheque-writers vs the cheque-cashers, and a British silly-season coda.

Commentary and information for serious active investors — not advice. Do your own due diligence.

Keywords: stocks, markets, capital, investing, macro, stagflation, fiscal dominance, AI bubble, Nvidia, credit spreads, core PCE, Federal Reserve, Treasury yields, Bank of Japan, oil, Strait of Hormuz.

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Subscribe to Hypernormal Times on Substack.

High Ground founder and CIO Edgar Allen joins to explain the investment philosophy behind one of Europe's fastest-growing long/short equity funds — now running roughly $3bn, up from $10m at launch in 2019.

Edgar traces his path from teenage stock-picker in Suffolk, working through FT-ordered annual reports in the school holidays, to Fidelity during the dot-com boom, shorting technology at Avocet, risk and European equities at BlackRock, six years at Chris Hohn's TCI, and the number-two seat at Naya — and how each stop shaped High Ground's approach.

The core of the conversation is duration. Equities are very long-duration assets, but the average company lives about six years. Edgar argues that discounted cash flow quietly assumes cash flows into perpetuity, and that the gap between that assumption and reality is the largest single inefficiency in the market.

His answer is to hunt for long-cycle industries where the supply response is slow and the competitive set in twenty years is already knowable: Airbus and the A320 family, Knorr-Bremse and train braking systems, city-centre property, even death care — the US industry with the lowest bankruptcy rate.

Edgar put it that:

"One thing that we know for sure about all the companies that we invest in is that they're all going to get wiped out. They're all trending to zero. It's just a matter of time."

On the short side, Edgar looks for businesses that will be worse businesses in three years than they are today, and for accounting evidence of it: widening profit-to-free-cash-flow gaps, adjusted EBITDA creep, factoring and reverse factoring, shifting LTIP goals, and margin decline masked by cuts to R&D and marketing. Consumer staples have been a fertile hunting ground as the barriers to entry that once protected big food brands have collapsed.

The conversation also covers a strong 2025 (25 positions up more than 20%, 18 down more than 20% — all of them shorts), the outlook for the UK and Europe versus an expensive US market, why China sits outside the mandate on rule-of-law grounds, declining trust and happiness as macro risks, and the case that AI — like bicycles, railways and airlines — could transform the world while destroying more shareholder value than it creates.

A fascinating conversation, from an original investment thinker and practitioner.

long/short equity, High Ground, Edgar Allen, terminal value, discounted cash flow, business duration, long-cycle industries, return on capital, quality investing, accounting risk, short selling, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, earnings quality, TCI, Chris Hohn, Fidelity, BlackRock, Naya, hedge fund, UK equities, European equities, US valuations, China rule of law, AI bubble, data centres, LLMs, consumer staples, Diageo, Airbus, Knorr-Bremse, Zulu principle, PEG ratio, investor psychology

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Three of the most powerful men in the global economy asked the markets to believe them, and the markets declined. On protecting capital when money, promises, and forward guidance are being printed, and gold, copper, and diesel are the only honest voices left.

Hypernormal Times on Substack.

This week, a president's peace, a Fed chairman's credibility and a currency's floor all turned out to be things you can print a promise about but cannot manufacture. Trump called off "the biggest strike since WWII," then announced talks Iran said weren't happening, before the Hormuz "deal" morphed into a surrender document. The US Treasury raided a Fed facility to print dollars so Japan could buy yen, fiscal dominance, in plain sight, while the president phoned Chairman Warsh and Warsh apologised through anonymous friends.

Meanwhile the honest voices spoke: gold to $4,300, copper to a record, and a refining shock (it's the fuel, not the crude) that a ceasefire can fix.

We cover the AI sorting. Situational Awareness, the model that escaped its box, SpaceX's cheque-writer earnings and the take-forward into next week: jobs, the BoJ, Hormuz and the AI supply tide.

The takeaway suggestion for serious active investors is to own the unprintable. Not investment advice, natch.

If only Kev had levers that printed oil refineries and copper wire. He doesn't. Nobody does.

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Erik of Your Weekend Reading returns from three weeks in China with a conclusion that will surprise anyone who has written the country off. Then: the 8% consumer inflation expectation the Fed is forecasting away, why bond yields are heading to 5–6%, and why he thinks the energy story could end up bigger than AI.

For your information. Never advice of any kind.

Visit Hypernormal Times.

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

China investing outlook 2026. Consumer inflation expectations, University of Michigan survey, 10-year Treasury yield forecast, Fed rate policy midterms, Strait of Hormuz oil price, natural gas data centres, LNG export terminals, contrarian energy stocks, Project Zimbabwe, Chinese consumer

Oil crashed on peace, stocks crashed anyway, a 557% profit was a "miss," and a hedge fund called Situational Awareness got blindsided. A week of maximum noise — and the three signals underneath that actually matter.

Hypernormal Times on Substack.

The market fell a fifth and rose a fifth in the same week, on no change in the facts — so this episode strains out the churn and holds up what actually changed.

We start with the noise: a ceasefire nobody signed, "peace broke out and stocks crashed anyway," and the record round-trip driven by a leverage unwind — including the week's best story, the hedge fund Situational Awareness, run by the ex-OpenAI author of the famous "see-it-coming" AI essay, getting caught spectacularly unaware and dumping its book to Citadel at the bottom, right before those shares ripped. Then the three signals worth keeping: the AI reckoning turned out to be a sorting, not a crash (Microsoft and Amazon proved the return; Meta didn't); the feared AI glut is, at the physical level, a shortage — one now capping Apple's revenue and turning the Bank of Japan hawkish; and the great bifurcation went concrete, with China floating its own memory champion (CXMT, +472%), building its own chip-making machines, and pulling a piece of Tesla across the US–China line. Plus a Fed chair whose silence the bond market repriced as a credibility shock.

Never investment advice.

• Why the week's violent round-trip was noise, not signal — and how to tell
• Situational Awareness vs Citadel: a thesis meets a balance sheet at the bottom
• The 557% profit that counted as a miss — and the bar detaching from reality
• The reckoning as a sorting: Microsoft/Amazon prove the return, Meta doesn't; "free cash flow" runs the tape
• The AI glut that's actually a shortage — Apple can't get chips, and the BoJ turns hawkish
• The great bifurcation: CXMT +472%, China's own lithography, Tesla splitting off China
• Warsh holds, the 30-year hits a 19-year high, and the market calls his bluff

AI bubble, AI reckoning, is AI a bubble, AI 2008 vs dot-com, Situational Awareness hedge fund, Leopold Aschenbrenner, Citadel, SK Hynix earnings, 557% profit, Microsoft Azure earnings, Amazon cloud, Meta capex, Apple chip shortage, memory shortage 2028, Samsung, CXMT IPO, China semiconductors, ASML lithography, Tesla SpaceX merger, Kevin Warsh Fed, 30-year Treasury yield, Bank of Japan hawkish, macro podcast, markets podcast, HyperNormal Report, Jeremy McKeown.

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

This is just a trailer to let you know about the podcast name change. In The Company of Mavericks will be renamed Hypernormal Investing from the next episode.

Practically, apart from the new name and some new cover art, nothing else changes. There is no need to change any settings to continue to listen on your podcast app.

I am doing this to align the podcast more closely to the writing I do on Substack. Please check it out at: Hypernormal Times.

If you have found this podcast useful or interesting, then please rate and review. It is now more helpful than usual to let the podcast algorithms find new listeners, which allows us to attract new guests.

And please keep your fantastic feedback and guest recommendations coming either via Substack or to me at: jeremymckeown@gmail.com.

Thanks for listening.

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Subscribe at Hypernormal Times.

Oil hit $100, Alphabet posted its first-ever negative cash flow, Bubba and the Fed disagreed about inflation by 470 basis points, and the President started selling his tweets for $100k a month. A normal week in HyperNormal investing.

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Follow me on Substack: https://substack.com/@jeremymckeown

For your capital markets training needs, contact Finance Talking: https://bit.ly/48NLioZ

Paul Pindar built Capita from a £330,000 management buyout into a £7.5 billion outsourcing giant, delivering a 480x total shareholder return between its 1989 listing and his departure in 2014. Now Chairman of Literacy Capital plc (LSE: BOOK), the listed private equity investment trust he co-founded with his son Richard, Paul joins Jeremy to share the lessons of a remarkable career in UK plc — and a very different second act.

Paul explains how Capita rode the wave of government outsourcing in the 1990s and 2000s, why culture and cheap, disciplined M&A drove 25 consecutive years of record results, and what changed after he left in 2014. He gives a candid assessment of UK corporate governance — 300-page board packs, six-hour board meetings — and why London's shrinking stock market is a "real shame for the UK economy."

On Literacy Capital, Paul opens up about the trust's unusual model: permanent capital, no carried interest, no performance fee, and nearly 40% founder ownership — plus £13 million donated to the Bookmark Reading charity, which tackles child literacy. He addresses the elephant in the room head-on: a NAV near all-time highs but a share price discount at its widest ever, the impact of the Budget and employers' NI rises on small UK businesses, and why exits at 10x, 10x and 15x money suggest the portfolio is conservatively valued at 9.2x EBITDA.

Whether you invest in investment trusts, private equity, UK small caps, or simply want a masterclass in building businesses, this conversation delivers.

• From Coopers & Lybrand and 3i to the £330,000 buyout of CIPFA Computer Services — the business that became Capita
• Listing on the USM in 1989 at an £8m market cap — and winning a £13m contract with £2.6m of turnover
• Visionary or lucky? Management, market tailwinds, and the 10 Golden Rules behind a 480x shareholder return
• Capita's M&A playbook: high volume, small deals, never overpay
• What went wrong at Capita — and in UK outsourcing — after 2014
• Why 200-page annual reports and six-hour board meetings destroy value rather than protect it
• The origin of Literacy Capital: a husband-and-wife conversation and a mission to teach every child to read
• Bookmark Reading charity: £13m donated, half a million children to be helped
• Inside the LitCap model: permanent capital, zero carry, and total alignment
• Five exits at 10x, 10x, 15x, 5.2x and 2.5x money
• The discount debate: NAV vs share price, CGT speculation, and the cost of neglecting investor relations
• How the Budget and employers' NI hit small UK businesses
• Why good £100m companies can no longer IPO in London
• Working with family: father and son at the helm
• Advice for the new Prime Minister: debt, the triple lock, stamp duty, and CGT

Paul Pindar is Chairman and co-founder of Literacy Capital plc (LSE: BOOK), a listed closed-end investment fund backing small UK businesses. He joined Capita as CFO in 1987 — eight months after backing its buyout as an investor at 3i — became Managing Director 18 months later, and led the business until 2014, growing it into one of the UK's largest outsourcing companies with 62,000 employees and a £7.5bn market cap. He co-founded Literacy Capital in 2018 with his son Richard; the fund donates a portion of net assets each year to Bookmark Reading, the child literacy charity founded by his wife, Sharon Pindar.

Paul Pindar, Literacy Capital, LSE BOOK, Capita, UK outsourcing, private equity, investment trust, listed private equity, closed-end fund, permanent capital, carried interest, NAV discount, UK small caps, management buyout, London Stock Exchange, IPO drought, Bookmark Reading, child literacy, shareholder value, M&A strategy, founder succession, UK stock market, corporate governance, capital gains tax, employers' national insurance

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

For more, see Hypernormal Times on Substack.

In this episode.

Inflation vs the oil war — why June's CPI and PPI prints are already out of date, and what new Fed chair Kevin Warsh's "plenty of work to do" really signals

The AI repricing — Korea's Kospi jumps 8% in a day, SK Hynix trades at a 50% premium to itself, then TSMC delivers a fifth straight record quarter (profits +59%) and the stock has its worst day in over a year. The question is no longer "is AI real?" but "what are you prepared to pay for it?"

The issuance flood — $345bn of new US stock this year, hyperscaler CapEx heading past $1 trillion, widening tech bond spreads, and why late-cycle bull markets tend to drown in exactly this kind of paper

IBM's worst day on record — down 25% as customers cannibalise legacy IT budgets to pay their AI bills

Hormuz and the Tanker Wars playbook — why crude is calm, why the real tightness is in refined products and crack spreads, and why energy is now a cheap tail-risk hedge

Gold falls 3% with a war on — the safe-haven bid goes to the dollar and energy instead

Chip diplomacy — Xi Jinping's open-source AI coalition of 29 countries, the UAE's airstrikes-for-semiconductors upgrade, and the bifurcation of AI into a Western proprietary stack vs a Chinese open-source one

Britain's car boot sale — 154 takeover bids worth £165bn since 2023, Rotork gone at a 73% premium, just 11 IPOs restocking the shelves, and the pound rallying on hopes of a fiscally conservative chancellor under PM-in-waiting Andy Burnham.

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

You've done the work, bought the stock, and now it's down 20%. Do you tell yourself it's now cheaper and buy more, or accept you got it wrong, take the loss, and move on? That decision, as Jeremy puts it, is the one that defines you as an investor.

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In this episode, Jeremy McKeown is joined by two friends of the pod: Substacker and author Rob Marstrand dialling in from Buenos Aires, and podcaster Mark Atkinson, this week broadcasting from Lancashire rather than his usual desert island. Together, they dig into a few everyday dilemmas of the DIY investor.

Drawing on the latest chapter of Rob's book, the conversation covers when to run winners and when to cut losers; why stop-losses belong to momentum traders rather than fundamentals-driven investors; and how to think about position sizing, sector and geographic diversification, and which parts of the market to simply leave alone. Rob explains his ranking system for weighting holdings by future potential, why he keeps a trading log to separate skill from luck, and the edge private investors hold over the professionals — permanent capital, patience, and the freedom to buy the crashes.

Along the way: the case for Diageo as an out-of-favour quality compounder, Terry Smith and the perils of a forced churner, and a detour into Argentina under Milei and what its decades-long decline might tell us about the UK's own trajectory.

And we nearly managed not to talk about the football.

Speak to Finance Talking for your financial communications training requirements.

The US bombs dozens of sites inside Iran while insisting the ceasefire talks are still on. A South Korean chipmaker posts a 19‑fold jump in profit, and the market loses $100bn in a day. Kevin Warsh hands the future of the Federal Reserve to a venture capitalist and two retired retail executives. And then, perhaps the sanest event of the week is a man in a dustbin costume standing for Parliament in Clacton. In this week's In the Company of Mavericks, I pull together my daily HyperNormal Reports into a single story: the death of rules‑based, stateless globalisation and its replacement by hard‑edged economic statecraft, nations wielding energy, technology, capital and currency for power and resilience rather than efficiency. A wrap of the world that knows the old system is broken but can't bring itself to say so.

In this episode:

• The Strait of Hormuz and the new geopolitics of oil — the IRGC "toll booth," Kharg Island, re‑sanctioned Iranian crude, and Brent's anxious round trip
• Korea's casino and the memory‑chip supercycle — Samsung's 19x profit crash, SK Hynix's blockbuster IPO, and the $2trn‑to‑$20trn memory trade
• What AI is really doing to work and wages — the Jevons Paradox, the "Age of Average," China's 320m gig workers and a modern Engels' Pause
• Kevin Warsh's reinvention of the Fed — five task forces, dot‑plot demolition, and the Greenspan lesson on holding the line
• Japan and China's balance‑sheet strain — surging JGB yields, GPIF "phoning home," and China's two‑speed inflation/deflation economy
• The private‑equity parking lot — 13,500 trapped portfolio companies and easyJet pointing to the London exits

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Speak to Finance Talking for your financial communications training requirements.

English sparkling wine is no longer a cottage industry but a new wine region in the making, and Chapel Down is its leading player. In this episode, I talk with CEO James Pennefather and Head Winemaker Josh Donaghay-Spire to explore how a Kent winery is building a global brand to rival Champagne.

From 25 years of selling Scotch across East Africa and India to 16 years of planting some of the world's best vineyards on the Kent Downs, my two guests unpack the quality, the climate science, the economics and the ambition behind a company targeting 1% of the global Champagne market by 2035.

Blind-tasted against leading Champagnes, Chapel Down won over 60% of drinkers in Reims and 67% in New York. This is the story of a wine region in the making and the investment case behind it.

Speak to Finance Talking for your financial communications training requirements.

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Plus: a dollar rerouted in plain sight, the AI tax hits consumers, and Britain's buffoonocracy implies a Gilt crisis as a near inevitability.

Wall Street wrote the obituary for the debasement trade this week, with gold below $4,000, Bitcoin has halved, and the dollar is at a 14-month high. But with a ~6% US deficit and $40 trillion of debt, what actually changed: the price, or the thesis? All this is happening as the dollar is being quietly bypassed, the AI capex bill is starting to land with consumers, and the UK's sovereign-risk "buffoonocracy" is starting a new chapter again, same as it ever was. Overall, nothing has changed except the price in our preferred currency (the dollar) and the vibe. What matters to investors wanting to preserve capital is what this all means for preserving purchasing power. Let's dig in.

https://jeremymckeown.substack.com/p/rip-the-debasement-trade-long-live

https://jeremymckeown.substack.com/p/a-buffoonocracy-in-need-of-a-bond

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Speak to Finance Talking for your financial communications training requirements.

Mississippi Wins

Douglas Carswell helped win the Brexit referendum, then left Britain in frustration to run the Mississippi Centre for Public Policy in a state that has quietly overtaken the UK in GDP per capita. In this episode, I talk to Douglas about why Britain has become, in his words, ungovernable and what investors and policymakers should take from the booming American South.

It's a contrarian, uncomfortable, and genuinely thought-provoking conversation, about decline, fiscal reality, and the unfashionable medicine Carswell thinks Britain will eventually have to swallow. Whether or not you share his politics, the diagnosis of why nothing seems to work is worth a listen.

Recorded on yet another day of Westminster upheaval, the conversation ranges from the structural causes of UK political instability to the hard fiscal maths now closing in on the gilt market. Carswell argues that Blair-era reforms handed power to judges, civil servants and quangos, leaving elected governments "in office, but not in power". The UK is a "buffoonocracy" that no single Prime Minister can fix without changing how Britain is governed.

He makes the provocative case that a UK bond crisis may now be the catalyst that forces real spending discipline and a "May 1979 moment." Along the way, he assesses Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch, and Reform's execution risk; why Brexit's opportunities were largely squandered (GDPR, the Working Time Directive, planning paralysis); and the one genuine bright spot, the UK's human capital.

Then he turns to Mississippi's free-market playbook: labour-market and occupational-licensing deregulation, a flat income tax now being phased out entirely, energy a third of UK prices, and school-choice and phonics reforms that lifted the state from 49th to 9th in fourth-grade reading. His message to Britain: the laws of physics aren't different in the American South, but the policies are.

A bracing, contrarian conversation about national decline, fiscal reality, and how the story might still turn around.

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

How does someone who started out selling chocolate mousse next to a Brixton brothel, then ran a cigarette-vending round in Weston-super-Mare, end up building national surveillance systems for sovereign governments across the Gulf and Southeast Asia?

In this episode of In The Company of Mavericks, Jeremy is joined by Julian Collett of Blackdown Partners to talk with Simon Tucker, founder and CEO of SRT Marine (LON: SRT), for an unusually candid tour of one of the AIM market's more remarkable stories.

Simon traces SRT's journey from the 2002 acquisition of a forgotten pile of wireless intellectual property, through the pivot from selling AIS ship-tracking transponders to delivering complete maritime domain awareness systems.

The conversation covers how SRT tracks vessels that don't want to be tracked (96% of boats have no transponder), why tankers are "going dark" in the Strait of Hormuz, the GeoVis software "brain" at the centre of the business, the parallel with Anduril, the distinction between civil defence and military defence, sovereign partnerships in Kuwait, Bahrain, the GCC and Southeast Asia, undersea cable protection, the realities of being a long-term growth company on AIM, governance, succession, and the path from a £250m valuation toward £1bn.

Contact Finance Talking for your specialist financial communications training needs.

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Jeremy speaks with Echo Yin, founder and portfolio manager at Varis Partners, fresh from factory visits across the US and Chinese robotics ecosystems. Echo brings an engineer's eye and investor's discipline to one of the most consequential technology races of our time.

They cover why China's global export share has risen despite trade war headwinds, what deflation feels like on the ground in Shanghai, and why the "China is uninvestable" consensus was itself the opportunity. The conversation moves into physical AI and humanoid robotics — where the US still leads on the brain side, but China dominates the hardware and supply chain — and why Echo is backing component suppliers over OEMs at this stage of the cycle. The core holding, Sanhua, illustrates the thesis: a proven electromechanical manufacturer extending its moat into robotics actuators as a key Tesla supplier.

Echo also reflects on the trillion-fold growth in AI compute since 2010, what deflation means for corporate decision-making, how China's consumer preferences are shifting, and why the countries that combine labour, talent, automation, and engineering will define the next era of economic development.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity

Episode sponsor Finance Talking

Did the AI Look-Through Trade Just Crack?

Broadcom beat consensus but dropped 13% on after-hours trading. CrowdStrike fell 10%. The Kospi crashed 7% intraday on Friday. The bar for AI stocks has moved beyond the trajectory — and the marginal buyer is starting to notice.

Jeremy walks through six interconnected stories shaping the next phase of markets:

— Why Broadcom's "miss" of less than 0.4% triggered a global tech selloff, even good numbers are no longer enough

— Hezbollah's rejection of the US-brokered Lebanon ceasefire and what the Hormuz dark-tanker dynamic means for sustained $100+ oil

— The Fed's openly hawkish pivot from Daly and Schmid ahead of Kevin Warsh's first FOMC on June 16-17

— The 1997-echo currency stress across Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, India and Japan — and why China is emerging as the regional safe haven

— SpaceX's $1.75 trillion IPO on June 12, S&P Dow Jones refusing to bend index rules, and what the inelastic markets hypothesis means for the AI-IPO supercycle

— Why private credit underwriting standards are tightening and what that signals about late-cycle leverage

Jeremy closes with four themes for the coming weeks: the AI guidance trajectory, the Fed pivot, the structural energy regime, and the IPO supply event. Position for volatility. Reduce concentration in mega-cap tech. Watch the dollar against the yen and the rupee. Don't fall for the diplomatic theatre.

Catalyst calendar: ECB rate decision (June 11) | SpaceX IPO debut (June 12) | FOMC + BoJ meetings (June 16-17) | Makerfield by-election (June 18) | US core PCE (June 25)

Mentioned in this episode: Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Nvidia, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, Cliffwater, Partners Group, Blackstone | Mary Daly, Jeff Schmid, Isabel Schnabel, Kevin Warsh | The inelastic markets hypothesis (Gabaix & Koijen), Rob Arnott & Lillian Wu on passive distortion

Find Jeremy at: HyperNormalTimes on Substack

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

In this episode, Jeremy is joined by David Seaman for a conversation with Henry Rayner and Jamie Hartley, two fund managers at Ennismore, about how they've developed their craft as small-cap investors through the firm's Academy programme.

We discuss:

• How the Ennismore Academy throws new joiners into pitching their own ideas from week one, and why that builds the muscle for genuine idea generation
• The transition from mechanical screens to lateral thinking, and why building a "bank of companies" takes years
• Useful jumping-off points beyond valuation screens: insider buying, special situations, spinoffs
• Decomposing expected returns into free cash flow yield, earnings growth, and rerating
• Why South Korea may be where Japan was three years ago — and how reforms under the new administration are driving genuine governance change
• Henry's thesis on Saramin, a Korean job classifieds business trading below its net cash balance
• The post-COVID biopharma destocking cycle and why sell-side models missed the bullwhip effect
• Jamie's positions in Spirax (Watson Marlow, steam solutions) and Sotera Health
• Portfolio construction in a multi-manager model and why uncorrelated theses matter
• Using AI to steel-man investment theses

Whether you're a professional investor, a private investor looking to deepen your craft, or someone curious about how young fund managers learn the trade, this conversation offers a window into the discipline, patience, and lateral thinking that go into small-cap investing.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity

Episode sponsor Finance Talking

Disclaimer: The podcast and the information, statements, opinions, interpretations and beliefs contained in it are those of the participants and are provided in good faith, but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to their accuracy, completeness or reliability, and no person shall be entitled to place any reliance on the views and opinions expressed. The information provided is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, investment, financial, tax or legal advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or other investment or pursue any investment strategy. Neither the podcast nor any of the information discussed constitutes an inducement, offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities.

small-cap investing, Ennismore fund managers, South Korea value investing, biopharma destocking cycle, net cash balance sheet investing, margin of safety

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

This week, the market told two stories and chose to believe the second. The first played out in the bond market. The second played out in technology.

In this episode we unpack why the vigilantes won the week and then stood down, how Andy Burnham was forced to recant his economic platform without a single vote being cast, what NVIDIA's parabolic demand means for the AI CapEx broadening across Asia, why three trillion dollars of imminent listings will reshape portfolio allocation, and why Kevin Warsh's swearing-in at the White House sets up June 16 as the most consequential FOMC meeting in years. We also examine the K-shaped consumer split exposed by Walmart, the structural Hormuz toll question Iran is quietly institutionalising with Oman, and the gap between Rachel Reeves' price-cap proposals and operating reality on the British high street.

Sponsored by Finance Talking and Brought to you by Progressive Equity

Follow me at HyperNormalTimes on Substack.

Primary: bond vigilantes, NVIDIA earnings, SpaceX IPO, Kevin Warsh Fed, AI CapEx, sovereign bond yields, 30-year Treasury, G7 finance ministers, Anthropic revenue, quantum computing CHIPS Act

Secondary: Jensen Huang parabolic demand, KOSPI rally, SK Hynix, Andy Burnham fiscal rules, Rachel Reeves price cap, FOMC minutes, Yardeni Buzz Lightyear, Citi Lekovich sentiment, Buffett ratio, Strait of Hormuz tolls, Iran Oman, Walmart K-shaped consumer, University of Michigan sentiment, IPO super cycle, OpenAI IPO

Long-tail / search: why did bond yields fall on hawkish Fed minutes, what does NVIDIA Q1 2026 earnings mean for AI cycle, SpaceX IPO valuation $2 trillion, Kevin Warsh Fed chair June FOMC, Iran Hormuz toll system explained, K-shaped economy retail earnings, three trillion IPO super cycle equity allocation

This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

For the first time in 21 years, Nationwide Building Society members will see a genuine choice on their AGM ballot paper. Jeremy McKeown sits down with James Sherwin-Smith, fintech executive, former MasterCard senior leader, and Oliver Wyman strategist, who is standing as the first member-nominated candidate for the Nationwide board since 2005.

In this episode, James reveals what it actually takes to challenge the UK's largest building society: an FCA hearing, 350 hand-collected paper nomination forms, and a year-long battle over access to the member register. We explore why the Virgin Money acquisition went through without a member vote, why mutuals matter for everyone (not just their customers), and what every Nationwide member needs to know before ballots land in June ahead of the AGM on 15 July.

Whether you're a Nationwide member, a building society customer, or simply interested in corporate governance and financial democracy, this conversation exposes a quiet erosion of member rights and what one maverick is doing about it.

• Why Nationwide's acquisition of Virgin Money never went to a member vote — and what it revealed about the society's governance
• How the "quick vote" box on Nationwide's ballot steers c. 85% of votes straight to the board's recommendation
• The story behind James's FCA hearing (the first in 30 years) and his statutory fight for access to the member register
• Why the bar for member nominations was raised five times higher in 2000 — and what that means for democracy in mutuals
• How a strong mutual sector keeps the wider banking market honest (and why mutuals didn't need bailing out in 2008)
• Why virtual-only AGMs are bad for member accountability
• The difference between member ownership in theory and in practice at a £300bn institution
• What every Nationwide member should do when their ballot arrives in June

• James's campaign website: james4nationwide.co.uk
• Connect with James on LinkedIn
• Jeremy on Substack: Hypernormal Times
• Email Jeremy: jeremymckeown@gmail.com
• Sponsor: Progressive Equity
• Training partner: Finance Talking

Nationwide Building Society, Nationwide AGM 2026, James Sherwin Smith, member-nominated director, building society governance, Virgin Money acquisition, UK mutuals, mutual building society, corporate governance, FCA, financial democracy, member voting rights, Nationwide ballot, quick vote, cooperative banking, retail banking UK, Jeremy McKeown, In the Company of Mavericks

Markets at all-time highs. A closed strait. The hottest inflation prints in years. The UK government is hanging by a thread. A US-China summit that resolved precisely nothing. We ask the only question that matters right now: how long can you keep running on empty?

This week's episode covers six themes that are all pointing in the same direction.

What We Cover

1. The Global Equity Market Paradox

The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index are at or near all-time highs. Oil is at $107. PPI is at a three-year high. The TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) has been embarrassingly profitable — but a new Tex-Mex metaphor has entered the chat: NACHO. Not Any Chance Hormuz Opens. Michael Green warns the equity bid is structural, not rational — and when that unwinds, there are no conventional warning signs.

2. Oil Inventory Maths — The Runway Is Running Out

The IEA reports global stockpiles fell 250 million barrels in March and April alone. JP Morgan's note — The Illusion of Plenty — puts OECD inventories at operational stress levels by early June and operational floor levels by September. Capital Economics sees $130–$140/barrel as the base case if Hormuz stays shut. And even a reopening tomorrow can't fix things fast enough — mine clearance, vessel redeployment, infrastructure repair: minimum two to three months.

The canary in the coal mine turned out to be in Havana. Cuba ran out of fuel entirely. The energy minister's quote: "We have absolutely no fuel oil. We have absolutely no diesel." That's the Hormuz crisis on a human scale.

3. Inflation is No Longer Just About Energy

US CPI: 3.8% year-on-year. PPI: 6%, the highest since December 2022. Truck freight costs up 8.1% — the biggest jump since 2009. Services inflation up 1.2% in a single month. Real average hourly earnings have turned negative for the first time since April 2023. The Bank of England's Megan Greene: "Inflation risks are entirely on the upside." The second-round effects are now landing. Global bond yields are at one-year highs.

4. Kevin Warsh's Impossible New Job

Confirmed 54–45 — the narrowest Senate margin since Fed chair confirmation became required in 1977. For context: Powell got 84, Yellen got 56. Warsh scraped through. On his first day as chair-elect, PPI printed at 6%. CME FedWatch now prices a 30% chance of a rate hike by year-end. His first FOMC meeting: June 16th. It may be the most consequential since Volcker walked in on August 14th, 1979. We know how that one ended.

5. The UK: Where the Bond Market Is the Government

Labour lost nearly 1,500 council seats. Reform took 1,451 of them. Gordon Brown turned up — and when Gordon Brown is the answer, someone is asking the wrong question. Wes Streeting walked into Downing Street. 94 MPs publicly called for Starmer to go. Andy Burnham booked his return ticket. The pound had its worst week since November 2024. The 30-year gilt sits near 5.7% — above every developed world peer. Bloomberg Economics estimates the May yield move alone adds £2 billion to the UK debt interest bill. Gilt traders are underweight. The market is now pricing the worst-case scenario for bonds — and Andy Burnham is it.

6. The Summit That Resolved Nothing

YMCA played at the state banquet. Xi promised Trump rose seeds. Jensen Huang boarded Air Force One in Alaska. Boeing was promised 200 jets — the market expected 500; Boeing fell 4%. Xi made clear Taiwan is the most important issue in US-China relations and that independence is "fundamentally incompatible with peace." Trump didn't answer when asked about it. The $14 billion arms package for Taipei remains unsigned. China called the Iran conflict one that "should never have happened" — diplomatic code for neutrality, unless major concessions materialise elsewhere. Like Taiwan, perhaps.

As Gerard Baker put it in The Times, this is the first time in nearly a century that an American president met another power's leader on equal terms. Trump came seeking help, not making demands.

The Bottom Line

Inflation has moved beyond energy into services and freight. The UK bond market is delivering daily verdicts on a government in freefall. Oil inventory maths has weeks of runway left. The summit didn't deliver on Iran. Hormuz is being normalised under Iranian control — not reopened. Equities are at records. Something is going to break. The question is what, when, and whether Kevin Warsh has any idea what's walking toward him on June 16th.

Jackson Browne told us in 1977: "I'm running on empty, and I'm running blind."

People & Institutions Referenced

Michael Green · Michael Burry · Jensen Huang · Kevin Warsh · Paul Volcker · Keir Starmer · Andy Burnham · Wes Streeting · Angela Rayner · Gordon Brown · Kemi Badenoch · Nigel Farage · Megan Greene (Bank of England) · Jim Lee (EIU) · Gerard Baker · Donald Trump · Xi Jinping · Saudi Aramco CEO · JP Morgan · IEA · Capital Economics · CME FedWatch · TD Securities · Morgan Stanley · Bloomberg Economics

Sponsor

Finance Talking — specialist financial training for capital markets, business finance, and communications. Clients include Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell. Virtual, in-person, and e-learning options available. Please tell them Jeremy sent you.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Keywords

oil price crisis · Strait of Hormuz · US inflation CPI PPI 2025 · Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve · UK gilt crisis · UK Labour leadership crisis · Andy Burnham · Trump Xi summit Beijing · equity market all-time highs · TACO trade NACHO trade · Michael Green passive investing · oil inventory IEA · Jackson Browne running on empty · macro investing podcast · active investor podcast · capital markets 2025

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In the Company of Mavericks — helping serious active investors navigate market volatility, protect capital, and find new ways to grow wealth in radically uncertain times.

⚠️ Nothing in this episode constitutes investment advice. For information and entertainment only. You are responsible for your own financial decisions.

In this episode of In The Company of Mavericks, we tackle the most requested topic since the podcast launched: the fundamentals of money and investing, and how to introduce these vital concepts to children, grandchildren, and the next generation.

Host Jeremy McKeown is joined by Andy Craig, founder of Plain English Finance and author of the bestselling book How to Own the World, alongside Josh Sandford, investment director at Dowgate Wealth, with two decades of experience guiding clients through market cycles.

Whether you're a beginner investor, a parent wanting to teach your kids about money, or a seasoned investor revisiting first principles, this conversation delivers actionable insights on building long-term wealth, navigating volatility, and avoiding the most common investing mistakes.

Finance Talking provides specialist financial training around capital markets, business finance, and communications, with virtual, in-person, and low-cost e-learning courses. Their clients include Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell. Mention Jeremy when you get in touch.

Visit Jeremy's Substack: HyperNormalTimes.

• Why UK financial literacy lags behind international peers, and the £20 trillion opportunity cost
• The crucial difference between investing and trading (and why conflating them destroys wealth)
• How compound interest truly works, and why 60% of UK adults don't understand it
• The main asset classes every investor should know: cash, bonds, equities, property, commodities, and precious metals
• Why asset allocation matters more than stock picking
• The "100 minus your age" rule (and why it should now be 120 minus your age)
• How to stay the course during market volatility and drawdowns
• The truth about inflation, monetary debasement, and why nominal returns mislead
• Gold, silver, and Bitcoin as inflation hedges
• The rise of passive investing and its structural risks for capital markets
• Whether AI infrastructure spending signals a bubble or a cycle
• How to think about buying property versus renting and investing
• Why time is the young investor's greatest asset

1. Financial literacy is a silver bullet. Understanding how money and investing work dramatically increases your chances of building wealth over a lifetime.

2. Investing is not trading. Investing harnesses real economic growth and human progress. Trading is largely a zero-sum game where 78–80% of retail participants lose money.

3. Time is your greatest asset. Get rich slowly. £5,000 invested in a Junior ISA at birth, compounded at 10%, becomes £945,000 by retirement.

4. Know the asset classes. Cash, bonds, equities, property, commodities, and precious metals each play a different role in a balanced portfolio.

5. Asset allocation beats stock picking. Use the "120 minus your age" heuristic to balance defensive and aggressive holdings.

6. Risk is not just volatility. The risk of doing nothing — sitting in cash and losing purchasing power to inflation — is often greater.

7. Think in real terms, not nominal. Monetary debasement is the real story behind asset price inflation.

8. Ignore the noise. The average equity investor underperforms the market by about 700 basis points because they react to news. Main Street is not Wall Street.

9. Property: think in decades. Don't fall for FOMO. Compare rental yields, salary multiples, and opportunity costs before buying.

10. Stay the course. Pound-cost average, diversify, and let compounding do the heavy lifting.

Andy Craig is the founder of Plain English Finance and author of How to Own the World, one of the UK's most popular personal finance books. After a 25-year career in the City, Andy now dedicates his work to improving financial literacy across the UK. Find him at plainenglishfinance.

Josh Sandford is investment director at Dowgate Wealth with over 20 years of experience managing discretionary portfolios for high-net-worth individuals and pension funds.

• How to Own the World — Andy Craig
• The Psychology of Money — Morgan Housel
• Rich Dad Poor Dad — Robert Kiyosaki
• The Ascent of Money — Niall Ferguson
• Money: A Story of Humanity — David McWilliams
• Broken Money — Lyn Alden
• The Secret History of Gold — Dominic Frisby
• Simple but Not Easy — Richard Oldfield

Keywords: financial literacy UK, how to start investing, investing for beginners, compound interest, asset allocation, ISA vs pension, passive investing risks, gold as inflation hedge, Bitcoin investing, teaching kids about money, Andy Craig How to Own the World, Plain English Finance, Galgate Wealth, Josh Sandford, Jeremy McEwen, In The Company of Mavericks podcast, UK personal finance, monetary debasement, real returns, S&P 500 ETF, generational wealth, stocks and shares ISA, get rich slowly, investing vs trading

In this episode, I talk to Doomberg following our last chat in early March, and he expands on his thoughts that the Iran War was a catastrophic error with significant strategic consequences for the World.

As usual, Doomberg doesn't hold back. China has entered the chat just as the UAE has exited OPEC, putting the instability among the Gulf countries and the broader Middle East into perspective.

Despite the demands of the AI hyperscalers, the world is fundamentally long on hydrocarbons, and what the events of the last 10 weeks have demonstrated is that the constraint on energy supply is political, not geological.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity & Finance Talking.

Seven tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz this week, against a pre-war baseline of 140. The world's most important oil choke point is running at 5% capacity. So why did the S&P 500 just post its best April since 2020?

Jeremy McKeown walks through the four stories driving markets right now: an energy shock, a bond market in revolt, a fracturing monetary order, and the deepest institutional crisis at the Fed in modern history, and the AI CapEx cycle holding it all together.

In this episode:

– Brent at $126, LNG up 61%, and Goldman's warning on non-linear price spikes – Why BlackRock says the 60/40 portfolio is broken – The UAE quits OPEC and asks the Fed for a dollar swap line — while quietly talking to Beijing – Saudi Arabia, the petrodollar, and the day the yuan settles oil – Four FOMC dissenters, the most since 1992, and Powell breaking 75 years of precedent – Kevin Warsh arrives on record wanting to cut into a supply shock – Coordinated hawkishness from the ECB, BoE, and BoJ — with the yen approaching 160 – The $670bn AI CapEx engine — bigger than Sweden's GDP — holding the tape up – Why Meta sold off 7% on a beat-and-raise – Picks and shovels vs. the hyperscalers: where the asymmetry sits now

Three things to watch: the Hormuz tanker count, the ECB on June 11th, and whether Tokyo defends the yen at 160.

A brief on a market climbing a wall of worry that gets taller every day.

For deeper analysis between episodes, subscribe to Jeremy's Substack, HyperNormalTimes.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity & partner: Finance Talking — capital markets and business finance training, trusted by Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell.

The views expressed are for information and entertainment only, not financial advice.

Shepherd Neame has been brewing beer on the same site in Faversham, Kent, since 1573. That's before Shakespeare. Before the King James Bible. Before anyone called a pub a pub. It has survived two World Wars, the Temperance Movement, the craft beer revolution, a very public family falling-out, and a pandemic that shut down every pub in Britain overnight.

Jonathan Neame is the fifth-generation CEO, a qualified barrister, a former management consultant, and a man who once swore he would never work for his father. He changed his mind. In this conversation, Jeremy McKeown talks to Jonathan about family governance and succession, the economics of the British pub, why three pubs are closing every day in the UK right now, and what the government could do tomorrow to stop it. They also get into the craft beer revolution, the bifurcation between London and rural pub markets, and what it means to run a nearly 500-year-old business on a site where James Watt installed his second-ever steam engine in 1789.

Jonathan's answer to why Shepherd Neame has survived while almost everyone else hasn't: they're not in the alcohol business. They're in the socialising business. Beer is just the best lubricant mankind has come up with in 7,000 years.

Guest: Jonathan Neame, CEO, Shepherd Neame

Sponsored by: Progressive Equity & Finance Talking

Brought to you by Progressive Equity and Finance Talking.

Schrödinger's Strait & The Gems Among The Rubble

Episode Summary: Dive into the absurdities of modern macro markets and the hidden value in UK equities in this episode of Mavericks. Host Jeremy McKeown brings together an investing "odd couple": Laurie Hulse, UK small-cap stock picker and manager of the Onward Opportunities Investment Trust, and The Shrub, a world-renowned meme trader, parody hedge fund manager, and macro commentator. Together, they explore how to navigate market volatility and uncover wealth-building strategies by blending bottom-up micro-cap stock picking with top-down macro analysis.

In This Episode, We Cover:

• The Reality of Public Markets vs Private Equity: Laurie reflects on the 3-year anniversary of Onward Opportunities, its graduation from AIM to the LSE primary listing, and the brutal, honest "mark-to-market" nature of public markets. The guests contrast this with the "deferred reckoning" of private markets, discussing the potential market impact of massive private valuations and the looming SpaceX IPO.
• The "Golden Age of Grift" & Market Absurdity: The Shrub explains his philosophy that "once you realise it's all nonsense, it starts to make sense". He breaks down why global markets ignore geopolitical crises—joking that as long as the S&P is above its 200-day moving average, even an asteroid strike is "priced in". He introduces the concept of "Schrödinger's Strait", where vital global shipping lanes are treated by the market as both open and closed simultaneously.
• The Capital Cycle & The UK Discount: Discover why a decade-long slump in UK equities might be the perfect setup for massive returns. The Shrub outlines the "capital cycle," explaining that the longer an asset is ignored, the more explosive its eventual upcycle will be. They discuss "Klaus," the imaginary European pension fund manager, and why trillions in capital reshoring to Europe could trigger a massive rally for UK and European assets.
• Gems Among the Rubble: Laurie shares real-world case studies of finding heavily discounted global businesses listed in the UK, including the highly successful acquisition of marine data business Windward and the podcasting platform Audioboom.
• Exit Liquidity & Survival Strategies: The Mavericks discuss why investors must plan their exits before they buy, whether through takeovers, US dual-listings, or graduating to larger markets, especially when dealing with illiquid small-cap stocks.

Listen to the end for actionable takeaways on building portfolio resilience and surviving the "clown show" of modern markets.

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. The ideas discussed may not align with your personal risk appetite. Please do your own research and take responsibility for your wealth decisions.

Enjoyed this episode? Subscribe to Jeremy’s Substack, Hyperormal Times, for non-obvious insights into how the world really works and the investment implications the financial press often misses.

Small Ships, Big Oceans, World on Fire

Ami Daniel on the Middle East energy shock, the death of cheap intelligence, and why the SaaS apocalypse is your opportunity

Ami Daniel, founder of maritime AI company Windward, returns to the pod with a front-row view of the Middle East energy shock — and a confession about the one big thing he got completely wrong about AI.

With US naval pressure tightening around Iranian ports and ships going dark in the Strait of Hormuz, Ami explains why this energy crisis has no quick fix: 20% of the world's oil and gas cannot simply be rerouted. He maps the geopolitical reshaping of the Middle East, why Israeli and UAE capital markets are telling a different story to the headlines, and why the Abraham Accord alliance may become the defining axis of the region for the next two decades.

Then the conversation shifts to AI and investing. Ami's big admission: he thought data would be commoditised and insight would be scarce. He had it exactly backwards. Insight is now effectively free — you can get PhD-level analysis on an API. Data is the scarce resource. That one inversion is eating the entire SaaS industry alive.

But Ami argues the SaaS collapse is a buying opportunity for patient investors — if you know what to look for. Proprietary data moats. High average order values. Strong net revenue retention. And it's also a good idea to look for wartime CEOs who have navigated real adversity before the good times arrived.

We also get into Windward's own journey — why leaving the London Stock Exchange wasn't a vote against the UK market, why he's now backing a company to list there, and what it means to steer a business through years of people thinking you're wrong.

Five takeaways:

1. The Middle East energy shock is structural — there is no easy fix
2. The region is being geopolitically reshaped, and capital markets are repricing it
3. Defensible data moats are the new scarce resource in an AI world
4. The SaaS collapse is a patient investor's opportunity
5. Back wartime CEOs — people who kept going when nobody believed in them

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Links mentioned in this episode:

Windward insights: https://insights.windward.ai
Ami Daniel on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amidaniel
Windward on X: @WindwardAI
Ami Daniel on X: @AmidanielOne
Orlando Bravo / Thoma Bravo—software is a buying opportunity (CNBC): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/tech-investor-orlando-bravo-software-ai.html
Ben Horowitz — Peacetime CEO / Wartime CEO: https://a16z.com/peacetime-ceo-wartime-ceo/
Previous episode with Ami (September 2024): https://substack.com/@jeremymckeown/p-148564789
HyperNormal Times: https://jeremymckeown.substack.com

The Iranian Toll Booth: A HyperNormal Situation Report

Operation Epic Fury is over, we are told. The bombs landed. The headlines can move on. And yet, the Strait of Hormuz has become a checkpoint run by the IRGC — with US allies quietly filing the paperwork to get through.

This is your HyperNormal situation report.

In this solo ITCOM episode, Jeremy McKeown cuts through the noise to explain what the US-Israeli campaign against Iran actually achieved, what it failed to achieve, and what the aftermath reveals about the real state of Western power in 2026.

French diplomats negotiating with Iranian middlemen. Greek shipping companies submitting cargo manifests to IRGC checkpoints. Japan is in back channels with Tehran. America's closest allies are paying the toll — not because they want to, but because they cannot afford the alternative.

That's not a military failure. It's something more consequential: it's normalisation.

Jeremy covers:

• Why the Iranian Toll Booth is more consequential than a blockade
• The Western "clown show" response
• What the death of the petrodollar looks like
• Why this is the Suez Moment that nobody's calling a Suez Moment
• Where to position capital when the old maps stop working

Drawing on recent conversations with Doomberg, David Murrin, John Polomny, Charlie Garcia, and Michael Every — this is the episode for investors who want to understand the world as it is, not as the press conference says it is.

The liturgy continues. The faith is gone. Stay sharp.

In The Company of Mavericks | HyperNormalTimes with Jeremy McKeown

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

ITCOM is a podcast that helps serious active investors navigate market volatility, protect capital, and uncover new ways to confidently grow your wealth in radically uncertain times.

John Polomny didn't go to Georgetown. He didn't intern under a former Secretary of State. He joined the US Navy at 18, ran nuclear reactors, travelled the world on warships, opened a brokerage account at 15, suffered a 90% drawdown, and eventually became one of the most-followed independent macro investors on the internet.

Today, he runs Actionable Intelligence Alert on Substack — covering geopolitics, resource investing, and the slow-motion unravelling of the Western-led world order. 

In this conversation, John and Jeremy discover they've independently arrived at the same framework to describe the world we're living in: hypernormalisation — the condition in which nobody believes the system anymore, but no one dares say so out loud.  It forms the basis of Jeremy's Substack, HyperNormalTimes.   

Topics covered in this episode:

• How a working-class kid from rural South Florida built a lawn business at 14, joined the nuclear Navy, and became a self-taught value investor
• The 90% drawdown that changed everything — and what Charlie Munger, Howard Marks and Warren Buffett taught him about compounding
• Why John thinks we are already in World War Three — and what Leonid Brezhnev has to do with it
• The Strait of Hormuz, the petrodollar, Saudi Arabia's patience, and the slow death of the post-1973 energy order
• Oil sands investing: why Suncor, CNR and the Canadian oil majors were among the most undervalued assets in the world 
• The "Don Monroe Doctrine" — why the US is quietly retreating to the Western Hemisphere and what that means for Europe
• Frontier markets: Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Africa — and why John thinks a 22-year-old with ambition should be booking a flight, not polishing a CV
• Why Argentina's Milei experiment matters more than most might realise
• Vaclav Smil's EROI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) framework — and what medieval peasants can teach us about the energy transition

The line that sums up John Polomny:
"I don't want to get too radical here." He then does. Every time. That's the point.

Follow John's work at Actionable Intelligence Alert on Substack and YouTube.

Keywords/tags: macro investing, geopolitics, oil investing, energy investing, value investing, Substack investing, self-made investor, US Navy, oil sands, Suncor, frontier markets, Argentina, Milei, Strait of Hormuz, WWIII, petrodollar, empire decline, hypernormalization, contrarian investing, independent investor, podcast

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

In The Company of Mavericks | David Murrin on World War III, The Five Stages of Empire, and Surviving the Global Power Shift

Host: Jeremy McKeown Guest: David Murrin (Geopolitical Forecaster and Author) Release Date: March 26th, 2026.

Join host Jeremy McKeown on In the Company of Mavericks for a riveting conversation with geopolitical expert David Murrin. Discover why Murrin believes World War III has already begun, the inevitable clash between a declining America and an ascending China, and how understanding historical cycles like the "Five Stages of Empire" and the "K-Wave" can help us survive the turbulent decade ahead.

Episode Overview: In this episode of In the Company of Mavericks, host Jeremy McKeown sits down with David Murrin, the renowned geopolitical forecaster, author of Breaking the Code of History, and founder of Global Forecaster. Known for his uncanny ability to predict global shifts by studying human behaviour and historical patterns, Murrin delivers a stark and urgent assessment of the world in 2026.

Murrin applies his unique behavioural models—including Isaac Asimov-inspired "psychohistory" and Kondratiev waves—to dissect the current global crises. From the ongoing proxy conflicts draining Western military resources to the looming technological singularity, this episode explores the mathematical certainty of empire cycles and what Western democracies must do to adapt and survive.

Key Topics Covered:

• World War III is Already Here: Murrin explains his controversial thesis that WW3 officially began with the invasion of Ukraine. He outlines the immediate military triggers and "pilot wars" that signal China’s imminent, kinetic move against the US and its allies in the Pacific.
• The Iranian Bear Trap: A deep dive into how the United States is currently entangled in an asymmetric war of attrition in the Middle East. Murrin discusses how Iran's use of cheap drones and mines is depleting US mid-course interceptors, creating a strategic opening for China's hegemonic challenge.
• The Five Stages of Empire & American Decline: Murrin breaks down his Five Phase Life Cycle model (Regionalisation, Ascension, Maturity, Overextension, and Decline/Legacy). He discusses why the US is firmly in the terminal decline stage, characterised by debt reliance and linear bureaucracy, while China is in the aggressive ascension stage.
• Linear vs. Lateral Leadership: Why are Western nations suffering from a plague of idiots in leadership? Murrin explains the symbiotic relationship between linear thinkers (who maintain the status quo) and lateral or dyslexic strategic thinkers (who drive adaptation and survive high-entropy events). He argues that elevating lateral thinkers is critical to surviving the current geopolitical crisis.
• The K-Wave Commodity Cycle & Resource Scarcity: An analysis of the Kondratiev commodity cycle, which Murrin predicts will peak between 2025 and 2030. Learn how the simultaneous implosion of the debt-fueled Doomsday Bubble and soaring food and energy prices will reshape global survival strategies.
• The AI Singularity & The Future of Warfare: Murrin assesses the risk of an AI singularity, driven by the escalating global arms race. He explores how hypersonic weapons, drone swarms, and quantum technologies are permanently altering the fundamental Theory of Warfare.

David Murrin, In The Company of Mavericks podcast, Jeremy McKeown, Geopolitical Forecasting, World War III predictions, Five Stages of Empire, US decline, China hegemony, K-Wave commodity cycle, Iranian Bear Trap, Lateral vs. Linear thinking, Dyslexic Strategic Thinking, AI Singularity warfare.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

In The Company of Mavericks | David Murrin on World War III, The Five Stages of Empire, and Surviving the Global Power Shift

Host: Jeremy McKeown Guest: David Murrin (Geopolitical Forecaster and Author) Release Date: March 26th, 2026.

Join host Jeremy McKeown on In the Company of Mavericks for a riveting conversation with geopolitical expert David Murrin. Discover why Murrin believes World War III has already begun, the inevitable clash between a declining America and an ascending China, and how understanding historical cycles like the "Five Stages of Empire" and the "K-Wave" can help us survive the turbulent decade ahead.

Episode Overview: In this episode of In the Company of Mavericks, host Jeremy McKeown sits down with David Murrin, the renowned geopolitical forecaster, author of Breaking the Code of History, and founder of Global Forecaster. Known for his uncanny ability to predict global shifts by studying human behaviour and historical patterns, Murrin delivers a stark and urgent assessment of the world in 2026.

Murrin applies his unique behavioural models—including Isaac Asimov-inspired "psychohistory" and Kondratiev waves—to dissect the current global crises. From the ongoing proxy conflicts draining Western military resources to the looming technological singularity, this episode explores the mathematical certainty of empire cycles and what Western democracies must do to adapt and survive.

Key Topics Covered:

• World War III is Already Here: Murrin explains his controversial thesis that WW3 officially began with the invasion of Ukraine. He outlines the immediate military triggers and "pilot wars" that signal China’s imminent, kinetic move against the US and its allies in the Pacific.
• The Iranian Bear Trap: A deep dive into how the United States is currently entangled in an asymmetric war of attrition in the Middle East. Murrin discusses how Iran's use of cheap drones and mines is depleting US mid-course interceptors, creating a strategic opening for China's hegemonic challenge.
• The Five Stages of Empire & American Decline: Murrin breaks down his Five Phase Life Cycle model (Regionalisation, Ascension, Maturity, Overextension, and Decline/Legacy). He discusses why the US is firmly in the terminal decline stage, characterised by debt reliance and linear bureaucracy, while China is in the aggressive ascension stage.
• Linear vs. Lateral Leadership: Why are Western nations suffering from a plague of idiots in leadership? Murrin explains the symbiotic relationship between linear thinkers (who maintain the status quo) and lateral or dyslexic strategic thinkers (who drive adaptation and survive high-entropy events). He argues that elevating lateral thinkers is critical to surviving the current geopolitical crisis.
• The K-Wave Commodity Cycle & Resource Scarcity: An analysis of the Kondratiev commodity cycle, which Murrin predicts will peak between 2025 and 2030. Learn how the simultaneous implosion of the debt-fueled Doomsday Bubble and soaring food and energy prices will reshape global survival strategies.
• The AI Singularity & The Future of Warfare: Murrin assesses the risk of an AI singularity, driven by the escalating global arms race. He explores how hypersonic weapons, drone swarms, and quantum technologies are permanently altering the fundamental Theory of Warfare.

David Murrin, In The Company of Mavericks podcast, Jeremy McKeown, Geopolitical Forecasting, World War III predictions, Five Stages of Empire, US decline, China hegemony, K-Wave commodity cycle, Iranian Bear Trap, Lateral vs. Linear thinking, Dyslexic Strategic Thinking, AI Singularity warfare.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Michael Every on Geopolitics, Wave Theories, and the De-Financialisation of the West

In this episode of In the Company of Mavericks, we are joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for a deep dive into the chaos of our current geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape. 

With over two decades of experience as an economist and strategist—including senior roles at Silk Road Associates, the Royal Bank of Canada, and Dun & Bradstreet—Michael brings a highly differentiated analytical framework that challenges traditional big-bank thinking.

Drawing on a diverse intellectual background ranging from early Marxist influences to firsthand observations of post-communist transitions, Michael exposes the critical flaws of neoclassical and neoliberal economics, arguing that the world is driven by raw power rather than by natural market equilibria.

Key topics discussed in this episode include:

• The Flaws of Traditional Economics: Why the neoclassical presumption of "mean reversion" and perfect market equilibrium fails to explain our current reality.
• Wave Theories of History: How alternative frameworks—such as Kondratiev waves, the Austrian business cycle, Dalio’s debt cycles, the Fourth Turning, and Peter Turchin’s elite overproduction—can help investors better navigate today's geopolitical tipping points.
• The US vs. China Hegemony: An analysis of shifting global power dynamics, China's neomercantilism, and whether the United States is facing a modern equivalent of the "1956 Suez Crisis".
• The De-Financialisation of the West: Why the West must urgently pivot from financial engineering and asset speculation toward re-industrialisation, commodities, and "economic statecraft" to compete with the East.
• The Middle East and Global Commodities: How the ongoing conflict in the Middle East ties directly into global struggles for control over base commodities, energy, and the future of the US dollar.
• The Realities of Artificial Intelligence: The physical resource constraints holding AI back (such as copper and electricity shortages), its impact on the labour market, and whether it will lead to a technological utopia or a dystopian cognitive decline.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Get in Touch: If you enjoyed this episode, have feedback, or want to suggest a future guest, please reach out to host Jeremy McKeown via LinkedIn, Substack, or email at JeremyMcKeown@gmail.com.

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Please consult with a professional financial advisor and do your own research before investing in these crazy markets

COMING SOON

BE SURE TO SUBSCRIBE VIA YOUR PODCAST APP OR ON SUBSTACK  

Michael Every on Geopolitics, Wave Theories, and the De-Financialisation of the West

In this episode of In the Company of Mavericks, we are joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for a deep dive into the chaos of our current geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape. 

With over two decades of experience as an economist and strategist—including senior roles at Silk Road Associates, the Royal Bank of Canada, and Dun & Bradstreet—Michael brings a highly differentiated analytical framework that challenges traditional big-bank thinking.

Drawing on a diverse intellectual background ranging from early Marxist influences to firsthand observations of post-communist transitions, Michael exposes the critical flaws of neoclassical and neoliberal economics, arguing that the world is driven by raw power rather than by natural market equilibria.

Key topics discussed in this episode include:

• The Flaws of Traditional Economics: Why the neoclassical presumption of "mean reversion" and perfect market equilibrium fails to explain our current reality.
• Wave Theories of History: How alternative frameworks—such as Kondratiev waves, the Austrian business cycle, Dalio’s debt cycles, the Fourth Turning, and Peter Turchin’s elite overproduction—can help investors better navigate today's geopolitical tipping points.
• The US vs. China Hegemony: An analysis of shifting global power dynamics, China's neomercantilism, and whether the United States is facing a modern equivalent of the "1956 Suez Crisis".
• The De-Financialisation of the West: Why the West must urgently pivot from financial engineering and asset speculation toward re-industrialisation, commodities, and "economic statecraft" to compete with the East.
• The Middle East and Global Commodities: How the ongoing conflict in the Middle East ties directly into global struggles for control over base commodities, energy, and the future of the US dollar.
• The Realities of Artificial Intelligence: The physical resource constraints holding AI back (such as copper and electricity shortages), its impact on the labour market, and whether it will lead to a technological utopia or a dystopian cognitive decline.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Get in Touch: If you enjoyed this episode, have feedback, or want to suggest a future guest, please reach out to host Jeremy McKeown via LinkedIn, Substack, or email at JeremyMcKeown@gmail.com.

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Please consult with a professional financial advisor and do your own research before investing in these crazy markets

The Strategic Importance of the Garcia Viewpoint

Having advised six U.S. presidents, Charlie offers insights into the current Middle East crisis that are not merely speculative; they are informed by decades spent at the levers of power. This proximity grants him a "strategic map" allowing him to see through the fog of the US/Israeli bombing of Iran to identify the underlying structural shifts in the global order. For the investor, this episode serves as a masterclass in how kinetic warfare catalyses a broader, permanent shift in financial stability

Charlie Garcia

In today’s "crazy markets," the value of an analyst is directly proportional to the depth of their real-world experience. Navigating the intersection of war and finance requires a lens sharpened by high-stakes decision-making, making it essential to evaluate the pedigree of those providing the intelligence. Charlie Garcia’s history distinguishes him as a rare "maverick" in a field often saturated by desk-bound theorists.

The Garcia Pedigree

• Military Service: His analytical lens is fundamentally grounded in tactical military experience, providing a "boots-on-the-ground" realism to his geopolitical assessments.
• Advisory to Six Presidents: His role as advisor to six U.S. administrations has provided him with an institutional memory of American foreign policy that few can match.
• Commitment to Hard Assets: As an active investor, he practices a philosophy of tangible wealth, prioritising assets that survive the collapse of paper-heavy narratives.

Garcia’s writing style is a hybrid of a Tom Clancy thriller and the sardonic wit of P.J. O’Rourke, is more than a stylistic choice—it is a competitive advantage. In the "Digital Intelligence Era," this high-signal, narrative-driven approach ensures that high-density geopolitical information is not only absorbed but retained by the reader. Unlike sterile corporate reports, Garcia’s style translates complex theatre-level manoeuvres into actionable intelligence.

Capital Mischief

As traditional corporate filters increasingly sanitise geopolitical reporting to protect institutional interests, independent platforms like Substack have emerged as essential repositories for raw, unfiltered research. Capital Mischief represents the vanguard of this movement.

Core Differentiators

• Narrative Style: Garcia utilises a "Clancy-esque" narrative drive and sharp, sardonic wit to challenge conventional market wisdom, making the discovery of "hard truths" an engaging process.
• Responsiveness: During the recent US/Israeli/Iran escalations, Garcia moved into "overdrive," providing a kinetic stream of high-frequency situation reports that tracked the conflict's evolution in near real-time.
• Analytical Focus: The platform is designed for the deep-dive "sitrep," attracting a sophisticated audience that prioritises theatre-level situational awareness over daily ticker noise.

For Garcia, writing is more than a creative outlet; it is his primary tool for exploring the "emerging paradigm" and making sense of global chaos. His passion for the medium allows him to provide a level of dedication and depth that standard investment research simply cannot replicate.

This responsiveness proved particularly critical as global focus shifted abruptly toward the escalating hostilities in the Middle East.

Geopolitical Deep Dive: War in the Middle East and the Emerging Paradigm

The current theatre of war in the Middle East—specifically the US/Israeli bombing of Iran—is a strategic inflexion point for global financial stability. This escalation is not a temporary disruption but a fundamental shift in how risk must be priced in an era of active conflict.

Analysis of the Conflict

• The Iran Escalation: The bombing of Iran has moved the conflict from a proxy war to a direct kinetic confrontation, demanding the "seemingly endless" stream of situation reports provided by Garcia.
• Tactical Agility: The shift from the Caracas discussion to the Middle East theatre demonstrates that in the current paradigm, static investment theses are a liability.
• High-Signal Intelligence: Garcia’s reporting provides the context needed to understand if these escalations are localised events or the opening salvos of a larger systemic reconfiguration.

The "emerging paradigm" is defined by the transition from theoretical, "black swan" risk to active, theatre-level conflict. In this environment, investors can no longer treat geopolitics as a peripheral variable. It is the core driver of market movement, necessitating a shift from speculative paper assets to tangible hedges.

This geopolitical chaos creates an urgent requirement for a more robust investment posture focused on intrinsic value.

Investment Strategy: Hard Assets in "Crazy Markets"

As the old global order is disrupted, a defensive yet proactive investment posture is the only viable path forward. In "these crazy markets," where traditional paper-heavy portfolios face unprecedented volatility, Garcia’s focus on the tangible provides a necessary anchor.

Garcia’s Investment Priorities

1. The Case for Hard Assets: Garcia is a "committed investor" in this category, viewing hard assets as the ultimate hedge. When traditional narratives fail, assets with intrinsic, physical value are the only reliable store of wealth.
2. Navigating Uncertainty: Despite his deep expertise, Garcia maintains a professional discipline, urging listeners to seek personal financial counsel. This is not merely a disclaimer but a strategic imperative: in high-risk environments, bespoke advice is critical before committing capital.
3. The Emerging Paradigm Defined: This new landscape is the intersection of active kinetic warfare, independent intelligence, and a return to asset classes that retain value regardless of the stability of the global financial system.

The Bottom Line for the Professional Listener: The value of Charlie Garcia’s approach lies in the rare intersection of "information and entertainment." By eschewing the dry, sanitised prose of traditional research in favour of a maverick perspective, Garcia provides the tactical depth needed to survive—and profit from—modern volatility. To fully grasp the implications of the Middle East conflict and the shift in the global order, the full episode provides an essential exploration of these volatile times.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Last week, I was due to host a joint episode with Doomberg and Charlie Garcia, but diaries conspired against it. However, I got to do two recordings of influential Substackers covering global events and their implications: one through an energy lens, and the other, crafting a line of journalism that reminds me of the great PJ O'Rourke. 

Capital Mischief is an ambitious investment Substack project from a man who served six US Presidents, was decorated by US military intelligence, is an entrepreneur and investor, and, now in his mid-60s, is developing a long-held ambition to write freely about what he sees happening in the world.    

Charlie's detailed briefings on the build-up to the early stages of the Middle East war have been informative, timely and highly entertaining. 

We had a great chat. 

Be sure to subscribe to receive the full episode dropping soon on a podcast app near you. 

In this timely episode, I chat with the internet’s favourite financial avian—Doomberg—to unpack the escalating chaos in the Middle East and its profound impact on global energy markets.

Recorded on Tuesday, March 3rd, as the fog of war deepens, we dive into why oil prices are spiking and how the world’s reliance on fossil fuels is shaping modern warfare.

Doomberg delivers his signature "no-holds-barred" analysis from "fly-over country," using his unique mental models to strip away the mainstream narrative. We explore the massive disconnect between the information being fed to the public and the harsh realities of energy physics and geopolitics.

In this conversation, we cover:

• Operation Epic Fury: A day-three characterisation of the conflict.
• Energy as a Weapon: Why energy security is the ultimate arbiter of market stability.
• The Fog of War: Navigating misinformation and understanding the longevity of current market volatility in the age of algorithms. 
• Market Impacts: How investors should view the intersection of politics and commodities during periods of high tension.

Whether you're looking to understand the macroeconomic shift or seeking a "maverick" perspective on the green transition versus energy reality, this conversation provides a sobering look at where we are headed.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Disclaimer:
This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial or investment advice. Global markets are currently experiencing extreme volatility; please perform your own due diligence and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Finding Wonder Stocks with Jamie Ward -  Compounding, Nick Sleep, and the Parasite of Passive Investing

How do you find the next "supernormal" company in a world of radical uncertainty? In this episode, we sit down with
Jamie Ward, author of the Wonder Stocks newsletter and a mathematician-turned-investor who survived the Global Financial Crisis.

Jamie shares his framework for identifying stocks capable of 20% compound growth and discusses the profound influence of
Nick Sleep (Nomad Capital) on his investment philosophy. We dive deep into why stock selection is about more than just "crunching numbers" and evaluate two specific UK-listed companies: Frasers Group (FRAS) and Wise (WISE).

We also tackle the controversial rise of passive investing. Jamie explains why he views index trackers as a "parasite" on market efficiency and how retail investors should navigate this shift to protect their capital.

In this episode, you’ll learn:

• How to filter for companies with 50x to 100x return potential.
• The specific stock selection criteria Jamie uses to find "Wonder Stocks."
• The bull case for Frasers and Wise.
• How to adjust your portfolio for the impact of passive flows.

Show Notes & Keywords

• Guest: Jamie Ward (Wonder Stocks Substack)
• Keywords: Value Investing, Compound Interest, Stock Market Strategy, Passive Investing vs Active Management, UK Stocks, Frasers Group Analysis, Wise Stock, Nick Sleep, Nomad Capital, Financial Markets.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity

I recently chatted to Substacker, investment writer and investor, Jamie Ward.

Jamie writes the Wonder Stocks newsletter with a focus on identifying compounding supernormal growth stocks, and he shares his thoughts on how to find these stocks. 

He also discusses the damaging impact of passive investing on the stock-picking process.  

Full episode to drop soon. 

Be sure to subscribe. 
     

Are we over-indexed on the "Digital Masters of the Universe" while starving the physical supply chains that underpin national security?

In this episode, we dive into why global capital might be facing the wrong direction. We’re joined by Django Davidson, Partner and Portfolio Manager at Hosking Partners, to explore the Capital Cycle Theory—an investment framework made famous by Marathon Asset Management and financial historian Edward Chancellor.

While most of Wall Street obsesses over uncertain future demand, the Capital Cycle approach focuses on the one thing we can track: Supply.

In this episode, we discuss:

• The Mag Seven vs. Physical Reality: Why the chronic underinvestment in critical infrastructure is creating a massive valuation gap.
• The Chancellor Doctrine: Understanding why return on capital—driven by industry competition—is the ultimate north star for share prices.
• The Return of the Cycle: How the current market mirrors the dot-com boom/bust and why we are in the early phases of a long-term capital rotation.
• Supply over Demand: Why analysing where capital is flowing (or fleeing) is more effective than chasing quarterly earnings.

Django breaks down the "huge valuation discrepancies" waiting to unwind and why the next decade of investing won’t look anything like the last.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Markets are volatile; please conduct your own research or consult a professional advisor before investing.

Supply is Measurable, Demand is Storytelling - Capital Cycle Investing with Django Davidson of Hosking Partners. 

In his legendary book Capital Account, Chancellor said that:  Over the long run, it is a company’s return on capital, not changes in quarterly earnings, which primarily determines the direction of its share price. The return on capital of any company is largely subject to the state of competition within its industry.

Simple stuff, but this process happens in cycles; capital is attracted to higher returns and is withdrawn when returns fall. Critically, it is an approach to investing that focuses on supply conditions rather than expected but uncertain future demand. 

So, as capital cycle investing came into prominence during the dotcom boom and bust, it is unsurprisingly making a comeback today. 

And it is Django’s view that we are in the early phases of a new long-term capital cycle, and the world, as he sees it, has some huge valuation discrepancies to unwind. We had a fascinating chat.  

The monetary metals, gold and silver and so-called digital gold, or Bitcoin, have had an unusual few months. 
  

As recently as September last year, the gold price was $3,500/oz, silver was $40/oz, and a Bitcoin was priced at around $110,000. 

Since then Gold rose by over 50% to $5,400 / oz before correcting to $5,000 / oz or up 40%; silver rose nearly 200% to $115 / oz before correcting to $80/oz up 90% and while all this was going on the price of Bitcoin more than halved peak to trough before stabilising down 40% at c $70,000. 

So, why the volatility spike? What just happened to the debasement trade? Has the newly nominated Fed Chair changed everything? Is AI or quantum computing about to kill Bitcoin? Is the FT right? Is the Bitcoin price still $70, 000 too high?    

To help dig into what we have just experienced, I was joined last week by two friends of the pod and long-term advocates of precious metals and Bitcoin, so-called outside money, to try to better understand the drivers behind these volatile asset prices and how to assess where things might go from here. 

Dominic Frisby, of the Flying Frisby Substack, has written books on Bitcoin and gold, and multi-asset manager Charlie Morris of ByteTree is the founder of the BOLD (Bitcoin & Gold) Fund, which recently launched on the London Stock Exchange. 

It was a timely discussion in which we tried to dissect the different drivers of these asset prices and what has changed as a result of these dramatic moves. 

But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment too. You should seek personal financial advice and do your own research before investing a penny in these crazy markets.         

And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Dominic Frisby and Charlie Morris.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Last week, I spoke with two longstanding advocates of outside money and the debasement trade: wealth manager Charlie Morris, the founder of the BOLD (Bitcoin and gold fund) and author, Substacker and all-round renaissance man, Dominic Frisby.

My question to them was: WTF is happening to gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and following their extraordinary price actions over recent months, where to now?

Please subscribe to ITCOM, where you listen to your podcasts, so you don't miss the full episode later this week, along with other great guests and topics lined up over the coming weeks.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Davos Man, The Revelation & Capital Rotation

For this episode, I chat with Roger Lee, Head of Equity Strategy at Cavendish and a City veteran with almost 30 years in the equity market. 

Roger started his broking career with Cazenove, then worked at HSBC James Capel, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and, most recently, as Head of UK Equity Strategy at Investec.   

Roger is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, a Physics graduate and a frustrated Politician.

For this discussion, I wanted to talk to Roger about politics and how it has come to dominate markets over recent years. He puts today’s seemingly chaotic geopolitics and rather depressing UK domestic politics into a useful historical context. It was an absorbing and illuminating chat with some suggestions on how markets might play out over the coming months.
 

But as ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it is for your information and, hopefully, entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice and DYOR before investing a penny in these volatile markets. 

And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Roger Lee. 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

I spoke last week with Roger Lee, Market Strategist at London broker, Cavendish.

We had a great conversation, sharing views on how politics have impacted markets over the span of our professional careers. 

Particularly we discuss how we are in revelationary era for Davos Man, the global elite and the interests of the ordinary man. And how the West can no longer afford the cost of the state. 

Roger talks about his ideas of how Trump's policy volatility and the impact of the AI card cycle has and will continue to impact financial markets.

Dropping soon on all good podcast apps. If you want to listen to this and future episodes, be sure to subscribe to In The Company of Mavericks. 

Simple But Not Easy

– The Investment Wisdom of Richard Oldfield

Richard Oldfield, Founder of Oldfield Partners and author of Simple But Not Easy. 

We discuss the psychology of value investing, the structural flaws of modern asset management, and the challenges of navigating the bifurcated markets of the mid-2020s.

Episode Overview

In this episode, veteran investor Richard Oldfield debunks myths about the finance industry, arguing that successful investing is "simple but not easy." Drawing on decades of experience—from the 1970s inflation era to the AI boom of 2025—Oldfield explains why value investing is a character trait rather than a learned skill, why "doing nothing" is often the best strategy in a crisis, and why investors should treat the stock market like a casino where the odds vary wildly depending on which "table" you sit at.

Key Takeaways

Value Investing is In the Blood. Oldfield argues that true value investors are born, not made. It requires a contrarian temperament that naturally gravitates toward unloved assets—a trait that is "simple" to understand but psychologically challenging ("not easy") to execute.

Growth vs. Value. Oldfield believes value provides a "margin of safety" that prevents the ground from opening up beneath you, as it does with growth stocks. He discusses his view of an exciting future for value versus growth. 

Index Hugging. Oldfield is a fierce critic of large asset management firms, arguing they inevitably drift toward mediocrity and "index hugging" (mimicking the market to avoid being fired). He advocates small, independent firms that can maintain "distance" from the noise of Wall Street and the City, enabling independent thought.

A Checklist for Selecting Managers: When choosing a fund manager, Oldfield warns against relying on past performance, calling it a "trap". 

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.