A podcast where we help serious active investors navigate market volatility, protect capital, and uncover new ways to confidently grow wealth in these radically uncertain times.
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Données mises à jour le 09/09/2026
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Kevin Muir has spent thirty-five years making — and cataloguing — mistakes in markets, first as an equity derivatives trader on RBC Capital Markets' Toronto desk through the dot-com era, and for the last twenty-five years trading his own capital independently. Along the way, he built The Macro Tourist into one of the most widely read independent macro newsletters, and co-founded The Market Huddle podcast with Patrick Ceresna.
In this conversation, Kevin lays out his current framework for markets: why being right about a call and making a good investment are two different things, how his own conversion on Modern Monetary Theory reshaped the way he reads fiscal and monetary policy, and why he thinks the US is losing the structural advantage that made it the best-performing stock market on earth for the better part of two decades. We get into his read on Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve, his currency trade expressing a long-yen view, and his scepticism of the AI capex boom — not because the technology won't matter, but because of how the earnings behind it are being built.
Keywords / Tags: Kevin Muir, The Macro Tourist, Market Huddle podcast, macro investing, Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve, US dollar, US stock market outlook, Japanese yen trade, Swiss franc, AI bubble, earnings bubble, gold, Modern Monetary Theory, fiscal dominance, US midterm elections 2026, hedge fund psychology, trading discipline
This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.
Is the UK Heading for a Controlled Default? Damian Pudner on Monetary Policy & The Future of Britain
Damian Pudner — monetary economist, founder of the Great British Think Tank (GBTT), former Head of Rate Sales for EMEA at UBS.
A 25-year rates trader turned monetary economist explains why UK gilts trade at a "moron premium," why he'd scrap the Bank of England's 2% inflation target, and how he's actually positioning his own portfolio in bonds, equities and gold.
Damian explains why he's a "broad money" monetarist, why the Bank of England's 2% inflation target should be scrapped in favour of nominal GDP targeting, and why the Monetary Policy Committee needs more practitioners and fewer career academics. He unpacks the UK's persistent gilt-market "moron premium," lays out what a modern-day version of the 1976 IMF crisis could look like, and shares how he personally allocates across equities, short-duration bonds, gold and, notably, not Bitcoin. The conversation also covers Gary Stevenson's wealth-inequality argument, the real economic impact of AI, and why Damian believes Britain needs a Thatcher-, Reagan-, or Milei-style reset before the next election cycle.
UK gilts, Bank of England, monetary policy, inflation target, nominal GDP targeting, broad money, M4X, monetarism, moron premium, UK debt crisis, gold investing, Bitcoin vs gold, Gary Stevenson, quantitative easing, fiscal dominance, UK economy, bond investing, portfolio strategy, Great British Think Tank
This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how affect , features insights from , analyzes , , and market , covers the actions of , evaluates different , addresses planning, reviews construction with and an , assesses long-term and strategies, explores trends, and helps listeners understand and .
The Lesson Bessent Forgot & The Week Gold, Bitcoin and Bonds Kept the Score
Saison 1 · Épisode 157
samedi 29 août 2026 • Durée 10:23
Read the daily notes at the Hypernormal Times on Substack. Subscribe, review, and share. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. Commentary and information only — not investment advice.
"Governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose." Stanley Druckenmiller's warning to his old protégé, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is the thread through a remarkable week. Bessent's "economic D-Day" on Iran and the dollar-as-weapon problem; the Black Wednesday irony of a man who broke the Bank of England now defending the bond price; Warsh's money-supply gauge flashing as M2 runs hot and the Treasury floods liquidity; Nvidia's blowout that answered demand — never the real doubt — while margins compress and a hot PCE print fully prices a December Fed hike; and Warsh's first Jackson Hole, where a frozen market waited on a chairman who refuses to give guidance. Plus the AI-vs-Middle East tug of war, gold and Bitcoin as the debasement scorecard, and a US move to lease Venezuela's oilfields. Essential listening for active investors on markets, capital and the cost of money.
investing, markets, macro, capital, stocks, bonds, Treasury yields, fiscal dominance, Scott Bessent, Stanley Druckenmiller, Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve, Jackson Hole, M2 money supply, PCE inflation, rate hike, Nvidia, AI bubble, gold, Bitcoin, debasement trade, Iran sanctions, Venezuela, OPEC
This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and , explains how affect , features insights from , analyzes , , and market , covers the actions of , evaluates different , addresses planning, reviews construction with and an , assesses long-term and strategies, explores trends, and helps listeners understand and .
Fiscal Dominance, Treasury Buybacks, Duration, Gold & Bitcoin - Bessent Declares War on the Thermometer
Saison 1 · Épisode 156
samedi 22 août 2026 • Durée 10:20
Read the daily market notes at the Hypernormal Times on Substack. Subscribe, review, and share at Hypernormal Times on Substack.
The global financial system is running a fever, and this week the authorities declared war on the thermometer. Jeremy McKeown separates the signal from the theatre: why the surge in long-term Treasury, gilt and bund yields is a real-yield repricing of sovereign risk, not an inflation scare. Why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's surprise bond buyback moved markets for twelve hours and then failed. A put is a bluff with no printing press behind it. Why the AI chip sell-off was a discount-rate shift, not demand cracking. Why Japan and the yen carry trade are where the margin call sits. And why gold, now joined by Bitcoin, is voting no confidence in fiscal sanity. Essential listening for active investors trying to protect capital amid fiscal dominance, rising rates and the AI capex boom.
investing, markets, macro, stocks, capital, bonds, bond vigilantes, Treasury yields, fiscal dominance, Scott Bessent, bond buyback, Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, inflation, gold, Bitcoin, AI bubble, Nvidia, Anthropic, yen carry trade, Bank of Japan, Jackson Hole
This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses planning, reviews construction with and an , assesses long-term and strategies, explores trends, and helps listeners understand and .
Why Oil Isn't $200 - The Blind Squirell on the China Collar, buying Britain on the floor, & what replaces bonds
Saison 1 · Épisode 155
vendredi 21 août 2026 • Durée 43:29
Why isn't oil at $200 with the Strait of Hormuz restricted? Rupert Mitchell — "The Blind Squirrel" — argues China has become a monopsony: the swing buyer of crude, putting an effective floor and ceiling on oil prices using storage tanks instead of quotas. He calls it the China Collar, and he thinks it will permanently re-rate energy equities.
We also cover why he's buying UK domestic mid-caps "on the bond floor", what replaces bonds now the 60/40 portfolio has stopped working, and the Monte Carlo runs where OpenAI and Anthropic are worth nothing.
A 25-year capital markets banker turned independent macro writer, Rupert publishes his own portfolio, losses included.
The Blind Squirrel Macro: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/
For your capital markets training needs, visit my friends at Finance Talking.
Markets spent five days exhaling — a soft CPI, a softer PPI, the AI trade roaring back — while quietly signing up for an indefinite oil siege, a $2 trillion deficit funded at the worst prices since before the financial crisis, and a boom in structured credit that rhymes uncomfortably with 2008. This week: the stagflation trap the Fed can't lever its way out of; Nvidia becoming "the bank of mum and dad" for the AI industry as Wall Street securitises the boom; why the market celebrated a number the Fed doesn't even target; fiscal dominance on the tape; and Japan's cheap-money anchor starting to drag. Plus the cheque-writers vs the cheque-cashers, and a British silly-season coda.
Commentary and information for serious active investors — not advice. Do your own due diligence.
Keywords: stocks, markets, capital, investing, macro, stagflation, fiscal dominance, AI bubble, Nvidia, credit spreads, core PCE, Federal Reserve, Treasury yields, Bank of Japan, oil, Strait of Hormuz.
This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect , features insights from , analyzes , , and market , covers the actions of , evaluates different , addresses planning, reviews construction with and an , assesses long-term and strategies, explores trends, and helps listeners understand and .
Long-Cycle Investing, Short Selling & the AI Bubble Question - Why duration matters when buying stocks
High Ground founder and CIO Edgar Allen joins to explain the investment philosophy behind one of Europe's fastest-growing long/short equity funds — now running roughly $3bn, up from $10m at launch in 2019.
Edgar traces his path from teenage stock-picker in Suffolk, working through FT-ordered annual reports in the school holidays, to Fidelity during the dot-com boom, shorting technology at Avocet, risk and European equities at BlackRock, six years at Chris Hohn's TCI, and the number-two seat at Naya — and how each stop shaped High Ground's approach.
The core of the conversation is duration. Equities are very long-duration assets, but the average company lives about six years. Edgar argues that discounted cash flow quietly assumes cash flows into perpetuity, and that the gap between that assumption and reality is the largest single inefficiency in the market.
His answer is to hunt for long-cycle industries where the supply response is slow and the competitive set in twenty years is already knowable: Airbus and the A320 family, Knorr-Bremse and train braking systems, city-centre property, even death care — the US industry with the lowest bankruptcy rate.
Edgar put it that:
"One thing that we know for sure about all the companies that we invest in is that they're all going to get wiped out. They're all trending to zero. It's just a matter of time."
On the short side, Edgar looks for businesses that will be worse businesses in three years than they are today, and for accounting evidence of it: widening profit-to-free-cash-flow gaps, adjusted EBITDA creep, factoring and reverse factoring, shifting LTIP goals, and margin decline masked by cuts to R&D and marketing. Consumer staples have been a fertile hunting ground as the barriers to entry that once protected big food brands have collapsed.
Investing in Things You Can't Print: Gold, Oil & Copper & The Week Trust Left Markets
Saison 1 · Épisode 152
vendredi 7 août 2026 • Durée 11:15
Three of the most powerful men in the global economy asked the markets to believe them, and the markets declined. On protecting capital when money, promises, and forward guidance are being printed, and gold, copper, and diesel are the only honest voices left.
Hypernormal Times on Substack.
For your capital markets training needs, visit my friends at Finance Talking.
This week, a president's peace, a Fed chairman's credibility and a currency's floor all turned out to be things you can print a promise about but cannot manufacture. Trump called off "the biggest strike since WWII," then announced talks Iran said weren't happening, before the Hormuz "deal" morphed into a surrender document. The US Treasury raided a Fed facility to print dollars so Japan could buy yen, fiscal dominance, in plain sight, while the president phoned Chairman Warsh and Warsh apologised through anonymous friends.
Meanwhile the honest voices spoke: gold to $4,300, copper to a record, and a refining shock (it's the fuel, not the crude) that a ceasefire can fix.
We cover the AI sorting. Situational Awareness, the model that escaped its box, SpaceX's cheque-writer earnings and the take-forward into next week: jobs, the BoJ, Hormuz and the AI supply tide.
The takeaway suggestion for serious active investors is to own the unprintable. Not investment advice, natch.
If only Kev had levers that printed oil refineries and copper wire. He doesn't. Nobody does.
This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to and , explains how affect , features insights from , analyzes , , and market , covers the actions of , evaluates different , addresses planning, reviews construction with and an , assesses long-term and strategies, explores trends, and helps listeners understand and .
Investing in China, Inflation Expectations & Energy - Revisiting Project Zimbabwe & S&P 10,000 with Erik@YWR
Saison 1 · Épisode 151
jeudi 6 août 2026 • Durée 57:25
Erik of Your Weekend Reading returns from three weeks in China with a conclusion that will surprise anyone who has written the country off. Then: the 8% consumer inflation expectation the Fed is forecasting away, why bond yields are heading to 5–6%, and why he thinks the energy story could end up bigger than AI.
For your capital markets training needs, visit my friends at Finance Talking.
This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.
China investing outlook 2026. Consumer inflation expectations, University of Michigan survey, 10-year Treasury yield forecast, Fed rate policy midterms, Strait of Hormuz oil price, natural gas data centres, LNG export terminals, contrarian energy stocks, Project Zimbabwe, Chinese consumer
Being Situationally Aware - The Hypernormal Investing Week That Was
Saison 1 · Épisode 150
samedi 1 août 2026 • Durée 13:51
Oil crashed on peace, stocks crashed anyway, a 557% profit was a "miss," and a hedge fund called Situational Awareness got blindsided. A week of maximum noise — and the three signals underneath that actually matter.
For your capital markets training needs, visit my friends at Finance Talking.
The market fell a fifth and rose a fifth in the same week, on no change in the facts — so this episode strains out the churn and holds up what actually changed.
We start with the noise: a ceasefire nobody signed, "peace broke out and stocks crashed anyway," and the record round-trip driven by a leverage unwind — including the week's best story, the hedge fund Situational Awareness, run by the ex-OpenAI author of the famous "see-it-coming" AI essay, getting caught spectacularly unaware and dumping its book to Citadel at the bottom, right before those shares ripped. Then the three signals worth keeping: the AI reckoning turned out to be a sorting, not a crash (Microsoft and Amazon proved the return; Meta didn't); the feared AI glut is, at the physical level, a shortage — one now capping Apple's revenue and turning the Bank of Japan hawkish; and the great bifurcation went concrete, with China floating its own memory champion (CXMT, +472%), building its own chip-making machines, and pulling a piece of Tesla across the US–China line. Plus a Fed chair whose silence the bond market repriced as a credibility shock.
Never investment advice.
In this episode
Why the week's violent round-trip was noise, not signal — and how to tell
Situational Awareness vs Citadel: a thesis meets a balance sheet at the bottom
The 557% profit that counted as a miss — and the bar detaching from reality
The reckoning as a sorting: Microsoft/Amazon prove the return, Meta doesn't; "free cash flow" runs the tape
The AI glut that's actually a shortage — Apple can't get chips, and the BoJ turns hawkish
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Life after 60/40: CTAs, long-dated crude, gold — and why not Bitcoin
EM local currency debt and 40% African exposure
The new Fed chair's straitjacket, and moving the 2% goalposts
Dollar/yen, the 30-year JGB, and the Forrest Gump of global macro
china collar, oil price, monopsony, crude oil, energy equities, opec, strait of hormuz, uk equities, ftse 250, investment trusts, closed-end funds, nav discount, 60/40 portfolio, portfolio diversification, cta, managed futures, trend following, gold, emerging market debt, macro investing, rupert mitchell, blind squirrel macro, openai valuation, anthropic valuation, ai bubble, federal reserve, dollar yen, jgb, byd, tencent, china state capitalism.
This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.
investing
financial advisers
inflation
recession
volatility
central banks
assets
inheritance
portfolio
bonds
isa
returns
allocation
macro
risk
pensions
The conversation also covers a strong 2025 (25 positions up more than 20%, 18 down more than 20% — all of them shorts), the outlook for the UK and Europe versus an expensive US market, why China sits outside the mandate on rule-of-law grounds, declining trust and happiness as macro risks, and the case that AI — like bicycles, railways and airlines — could transform the world while destroying more shareholder value than it creates.
A fascinating conversation, from an original investment thinker and practitioner.
long/short equity, High Ground, Edgar Allen, terminal value, discounted cash flow, business duration, long-cycle industries, return on capital, quality investing, accounting risk, short selling, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, earnings quality, TCI, Chris Hohn, Fidelity, BlackRock, Naya, hedge fund, UK equities, European equities, US valuations, China rule of law, AI bubble, data centres, LLMs, consumer staples, Diageo, Airbus, Knorr-Bremse, Zulu principle, PEG ratio, investor psychology
This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.
financial freedom
retirement
interest rates
investing
financial advisers
inflation
recession
volatility
central banks
assets
inheritance
portfolio
bonds
isa
returns
allocation
macro
risk
pensions
The great bifurcation: CXMT +472%, China's own lithography, Tesla splitting off China
Warsh holds, the 30-year hits a 19-year high, and the market calls his bluff
AI bubble, AI reckoning, is AI a bubble, AI 2008 vs dot-com, Situational Awareness hedge fund, Leopold Aschenbrenner, Citadel, SK Hynix earnings, 557% profit, Microsoft Azure earnings, Amazon cloud, Meta capex, Apple chip shortage, memory shortage 2028, Samsung, CXMT IPO, China semiconductors, ASML lithography, Tesla SpaceX merger, Kevin Warsh Fed, 30-year Treasury yield, Bank of Japan hawkish, macro podcast, markets podcast, HyperNormal Report, Jeremy McKeown.
This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.
