Global Macro Update – Détails, épisodes et analyse

This is one of my favorite interviews of 2025. Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, built his career translating technical analysis into actionable investment strategies for institutional clients. Hear about his market cycle clock—and why inflation matters more to stocks than GDP growth does.

Everyone worries AI will take their job. Steve Lord thinks we'll hit a bigger wall first: power. Lord is COO of Burkland Associates, which works with Andreessen Horowitz and dozens of other top VC firms. Hear about the infrastructure bottleneck facing AI, what went wrong with crypto's original promise, and Lord's advice for founders trying to raise capital in today's market.

"Anytime Trump says something, it is harmful to my positions." For commodities trader Jared Dillian, the spring tariff meltdown broke the market for good. And we may be due for a second tariff-driven sell-off this fall.

The simultaneous sell-off of stocks, bonds, and US dollar is a big deal. Brent Donnelly from Spectra Markets explains how broken trust has left permanent scars on US trade policy: "Once an action has been taken, you can remove the action, but then there's still going to be some damage."

All trade wars have a currency effect, but what happens when nations drive down their currencies to counter US tariffs? John Mauldin explains why he doesn't believe China is using US treasuries as a weapon—and where the trade war will hurt most.

There's no substitute for experience. That was evident this week in the markets. While most people were confused or frozen, at least one investor (our old friend Jared) was making money after spending the past few months positioning himself for a week like this one. Part of his strategy involves using options, but not for speculation…

Private equity is buying up America—everything from nursing homes to the local plumbing business. Some are calling it a bubble, with the value of global private equity deals reaching $2 trillion in 2024. Brendan Ballou, author of the new book Plunder, says the real trouble with PE comes from weak regulations that incentivize bad decisions.

Modern history is rife with examples of wars that grind on needlessly, only to end with no clear winner. There is a risk this will happen with Ukraine, though President Trump is eager to force a settlement. BCA Research Chief Strategist Marko Papic joins us to unpack what happens next.

Inflation is dropping quickly, but you wouldn't know it from the headlines. Danielle DiMartino Booth explains why, highlighting layoffs and other underreported recession signals. As she's said before, "There is no greater drag on inflation than job loss."

George is back! Over half a million people caught my last interview with George shortly after the US and Russia began settlement discussions about Ukraine. Today he responds to the animated comments that followed, explaining why Russia cannot wage war in Europe, NATO's diminishing relevance, and how the flurry of activity at the White House compares to Roosevelt's first hundred days in office.