Geopolitical Cousins – Détails, épisodes et analyse

The inaugural episode of the Geopolitical Cousins podcast sees Marko and Jacob wax philosophical about net assessments, debate where the Trump administration thinks the world is multipolar, and interrogate what the future of Canada, Europe, and inflation look like in a land of all sticks and no carrots.

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(00:00) - Intro

(00:50) - Approach and Precepts

(11:00) – Net Assessments

(18:44) – Multipolarity

(34:19) – US Exceptionalism, China, and US Fiscal Policy

(42:44) - Canada-US Trade Tensions

(47:42) – Inflation and pain thresholds

(52:27) – Europe's Awakening and Defense Strategies

Jacob and Marko run down the most important issues of the week: Will the U.S. go to war with Iran? Why did President Erdogan arrest his top rival? Is Indonesia helping or hurting itself by courting its military? And is Chinese consumption really happening? From there, they turn to the kind of geopolitical sports analysis that only they can offer, drafting teams of 7 for the top geopolitical sports moments in history.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - Iran

(31:00) - Turkey

(46:00) – Indonesia

(58:00) – China

(1:09:00) - Geopolitical Draft

Jacob and Marko make a cousins episode happen even as Jacob is moving into a new office and Marko is on the road – at one point he was literally recording from a bathroom at a hotel in Fort Lauderdale because that is the only place he could get WiFi. What other podcast hosts have that kind of dedication? None! This week the cousins tackle Trump’s latest bevy of tariff threats, discuss the improvement in India/China relations, and close with some lessons to learn from the ongoing protests in Serbia.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(03:04) - US Tariffs

(07:42) - Potential Domestic and Global Reactions to Tariffs

(14:17) - Challenges in Renegotiating Trade Deals

(28:58) - India-China Border Disputes and Economic Implications

(32:17) - India and China: Complementary Economies

(44:18) – Serbia/Turkey/Indonesia

(53:59) – Over/under

Jacob and Marko convene an emergency episode to discuss Liberation Day. Afterwards, they speak to fellow cousin Matt Gertken about President Trump’s comments that he might serve a third presidential term.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(01:46) - Discussion on Tariffs and Trade Deficit

(02:58) - Reciprocal Tariffs and Economic Reactions

(04:56) - Market Reactions and Negotiation Strategies

(07:02) - Uncertainty and Global Trade Dynamics

(07:45) - Historical Context and Strategic Analysis

(10:15) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios

(13:15) - US Fiscal Policy and Global Trade War

(30:57) - Potential Outcomes and Congressional Actions

(35:20) - Biden's Missed Opportunity with Trade

(36:04) - Challenges in US Trade Negotiations

(37:44) - Inflation and Tariffs Debate

(40:19) - Recession Concerns and Economic Adjustments

(41:11) - Tariffs and Their Impact on American Manufacturing

(43:09) - China's Military Exercises and Taiwan

(44:30) - Debating China's Intentions with Taiwan

(52:03) - Part 2 with Matt Gertken

(54:48) - Trump's Third Term Speculation

(01:06:44) - Reflecting on Beginnings and Career Paths

(01:07:52) - The Impact of Leadership on Markets

(01:10:52) - Comparing Political Systems: US, China, and Russia

(01:13:11) - The Future of American Democracy

(01:17:19) - Media Manipulation and Political Spectacle

(01:20:50) - The Role of the Supreme Court

(01:32:57) - European Politics and the Far Right

(01:42:31) - Concluding Thoughts on Geopolitics

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Referenced in the Show:

Note from Matt on reference he made in podcast: Cato of Utica is associated with Geo Washington. He committed suicide when Caesar came to power - But it was Cato the ELDER who would retreat to his Sabine farm after various stints in power. https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/cato

Trump's tariff chaos isn’t strategy - it’s a policy car crash in slow motion. Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic walk listeners through how we got here: tariffs based on 6th grade math, no off-ramps, and the U.S. launching a trade war… against everyone. Meanwhile, the rest of the world’s like, cool, we’ll just trade with each other. This isn’t about toaster prices—it’s about the U.S. exporting its own recession. If April 9th isn’t the pivot, buckle up.

Come for the analysis; stay for Marko’s tortured basketball metaphor at the end.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:32) - Unexpected Market Concerns

(01:43) - Tariffs and Market Reactions

(03:33) - Global Trade Dynamics

(05:06) - Impact on US Industries

(12:39) - Agricultural and Energy Sectors

(19:30) - Global Economic Shifts

(26:43) - Trump's Acceleration and Structuralism

(27:04) - Insane Policymaking and Tariffs

(28:17) - The Importance of Due Process

(29:13) - Arbitrary Policies and Financial Concerns

(33:20) - Market Timing and Optimism

(36:37) - Geopolitical Constraints and Future Outlook

(44:00 ) - Kevin Durant and Trade Barriers Analogy

(49:19) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Marko unloads on the myth that austerity worked in Greece, calling out lazy linear thinking, Eurozone nerds with Excel models, and Paul Krugman’s fantasy economics. He explains how Greece’s turnaround was real - but not for the reasons anyone thinks - and why Syriza’s U-turn was political heroism, not betrayal. The conversation pivots to India, where Modi is playing the U.S., China, and Europe against each other with tariff diplomacy. Plus: Ottoman nostalgia, Donbas deadlock, and why even ISIS prefers Toyotas.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:17) - Greece's Economic Turnaround

(03:00) - Debating Austerity and Economic Policies

(07:33) - Greece's Political Landscape and Reforms

(12:17) - Comparing Greece and Brexit

(30:19) - India's Market and Global Trade Dynamics

(37:43) - The Importance of Foreign Competition in Domestic Markets

(40:33) - The Impact of Tariffs on the Auto Industry

(43:53) - India's Strategy Towards Foreign Auto Companies

(45:12) - Russia-Ukraine Conflict Update

(53:15) - Trump's Tariff Policies and Their Implications

(56:23) - The Future of US Trade Deals

(01:03:42) - Concluding Thoughts on Trade and Geopolitics

After a whirlwind of parenting, flights, and failed schedules, the cousins are back with overreactions and the U.S. dollar’s free fall. They riff on Chinese tech breakthroughs... but Marko's still not buying BYD over a German car. Europe? Left for dead, so maybe it’s time to buy? Jacob freaks out over India-Pakistan tensions, while Marko tries to keep us from launching WWIII. They also touch on Trump’s Nobel dreams, Pope predictions, and why Japan just became the spiciest trade negotiator in the room. Plus: rice diplomacy and NBA despair.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Announcements

(00:51) - Catching Up After a Busy Week

(01:56) - Overreactions Segment Introduction

(03:51) - First Overreaction: US Dollar Decline

(13:19) - Second Overreaction: China's Tech Advancements

(22:55) - Third Overreaction: Europe's Geopolitical Decade

(26:01) - Fourth Overreaction: Trump Administration's Peace Dividend

(31:43) - Discussion on the Vatican and the Pope

(33:15) - Conspiracy Theories and Pope Francis

(34:34) - The Future of the Papacy

(35:52) - Trump as Pope?

(36:55) - The Role of the Vatican

(40:06) - Global Politics and Religion

(41:50) - Canada and Australia Elections

(46:51) - Japan's Trade Stance

(52:29) - India-Pakistan Tensions

(56:04) - Multipolar World Conflicts

(01:03:36) - NBA Playoffs and Predictions

This week, the cousins speed-run chaos: Houthis hitting Israel, Trump cutting side deals, and Jordan taking heat for not hosting enough sick kids from Gaza. Marko argues that the U.S. is done playing global babysitter, and that might actually be stabilizing. They dig into Israel’s delusions of American loyalty, Burkina Faso’s TikTok dictatorship, and Marko's new theory: “geopolitical tightening.” Jacob’s worried about nukes and future AI plagues, but Marko says multipolarity forces adults to act like, well, adults. Oh, and if President Traoré of Burkina Faso is listening: We accept consulting fees in gold or viral video cameos.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Overview

(01:16) - Middle East Tensions: King Abdullah, Houthis, and Trump

(06:39) - Israel's Strategic Challenges

(11:56) - Jordan's Geopolitical Balancing Act

(22:30) - Burkina Faso's Social Media Strategy

(29:13) - The President's Social Media Strategy

(30:38) - Geopolitical Challenges in Burkina Faso

(31:29) - The Role of Gold in Global Politics

(34:10) - Global Perception of US Tariffs

(36:20) - Hegemonic Stability and Global Order

(44:35) - The Impact of Nuclear Weapons on Global Conflict

(54:08) - China's Potential as a Global Hegemon

(56:34) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The cousins return with chaos, caffeine, and an inaugural Geopolitical Power Draft - but not before Marko rants about Gulf monarchies, Trump’s diplomatic plane deals, and why Saudi Arabia might out-liberal Israel by 2050. He skewers Western pearl-clutching, explains why Qatar owes him a jet, and declares multipolarity the new default. Along the way: why Zelensky outmaneuvered Putin, how Xi is courting Latin America, and why the UAE is quietly winning the AI arms race. Then it’s time to pick global power players for the next 30 years. Marko’s playing 5D chess with industrial policy.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview

(01:00) - Geopolitical Analysts and Air Travel

(02:45) - US Foreign Policy and Gifts

(07:43) - Middle East Developments

(23:13) - Saudi Arabia's Transformation

(41:44) - Geopolitical Draft Introduction

(45:51) - Geopolitical Power Index and Geopolitics as an Art

(47:00) - Quantitative vs Qualitative Analysis in Geopolitics

(47:20) - Defining Power and Influence

(48:37) - Non-Linearity and Future Predictions

(48:53) - Nuclear Power and Population Debates

(49:07) - Critique of Demographic Obsession

(51:09) - American Power and Multipolarity

(54:01) - China's Position and Challenges

(59:09) -European Union and Western Europe

(01:04:05) - Turkey's Strategic Importance

(01:08:16) - India's Potential and Challenges

(01:11:56) - Russia's Geopolitical Influence

(01:13:45) - South Korea's Technological Edge

(01:16:31) - Brazil's Agricultural and Manufacturing Future

(01:17:03) - Canada's Strategic Advantages

(01:18:47) -Iran's Potential Resurgence

(01:19:56) - Argentina's Reform and Innovation

(01:20:48) - Singapore's Strategic Position

(01:21:30) - Saudi Arabia's Regional Influence

(01:22:11) - Japan's Resilience

(01:22:32) - Ukraine's Future as a Garrison State

(01:24:21) - Conclusion and NBA Thoughts

Marko and Jacob wrap up their Geopolitical Power Draft, spar over Canada’s place in the top 10, and debate whether demographics or tech will shape the next world order. Marko defends Canada with maple syrup, AI, and ag exports, while Jacob sides with rivers, realpolitik, and skepticism. They explore honorable mentions like the UAE, Rwanda, and a hypothetical Nordic Union, and ask whether non-state actors or city-states will dominate geopolitics. The episode is equal parts spirited bickering, big-picture theorizing, and long-shot speculation. Also: beavers, bunkers, and why Israel might be past its geopolitical prime.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(01:25) - Geopolitical Power Draft Recap

(04:40) - Debating the Draft Picks

(06:32) - Analyzing Geopolitical Power

(17:00) - Honorable Mentions and Speculative Picks

(34:09) - Final Thoughts and Adjustments

(36:48) - Switching Japan and Iran

(37:07) - Argentina and Indonesia Reordering

(37:53) - Brazil's Regional Power

(39:03) - Canada's Geopolitical Position

(39:17) - Mexico's Potential Power Projection

(39:46) - Canada's Strengths and Weaknesses

(41:37) - Comparing Canada to Other Nations

(45:42) - Technological Innovation in Canada

(55:36) - Geopolitical Analysis and Predictions

(01:06:32) - US Debt and Fiscal Policy

(01:14:30) - Trump's Fiscal Policies and Tax Cuts

(01:16:00) - Medicaid and Welfare Cuts

(01:17:10) - Senate's Role in Budget Approval

(01:18:29) - Trump's Stance on Medicaid

(01:20:54) - Bond Market and Budget Cuts

(01:24:10) - Israel and Anti-Zionism Debate

(01:38:58) - South Africa's Racial Tensions