Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast "Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

Noah Smith joins Erik Torenberg at the 2026 American Dynamism Summit in Washington, D.C. to discuss Anthropic's relationship with Washington, bioterrorism risks stemming from AI, why Noah isn't worried about AI causing job loss, and more.

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:28 - Anthropic, DOD, & Government Control of AI

04:28 - Sponsor: NetSuite

09:44 - Advice for Dario & Anthropic

12:13 - Partisan Politics vs. Existential Risk

16:06 - Mass Surveillance & AI

17:30 - The Biosecurity Threat

24:21 - Will AI Take Our Jobs?

28:41 - Outro

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah and Erik are joined by Flock Safety CEO to cover America's crime crisis and how to solve it with technology. They explore international comparisons, why America's crime problem is unique, how cameras can deter crime, tradeoffs in crime reduction, and more.

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More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102

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- Discussion opened with comparisons between AI's impact on various professions, particularly radiology

- America's murder rate is approximately 5x higher than Europe and 10x higher than Asia, making it a significantly more violent country

- Crime has become increasingly sophisticated over the past decade, shifting from impulsive juvenile offenses to organized, profit-driven enterprises

- Foreign criminal organizations operate with different specialties: South American gangs focus on narcotics, firearms, and use drones for reconnaissance

- Geographic spread: American cities are too suburban for effective foot patrols, forcing police to drive instead - foot patrols are proven to be more effective deterrents

- Gun availability: While firearms make approximately a 2x difference in murder rates, eliminating all guns (which would be extremely difficult) would only get America halfway to European safety levels

- Americans have restructured their entire lives around crime avoidance, creating costs not captured in crime statistics

- Deterrence through likelihood of capture: Research shows criminals are deterred by the likelihood of getting caught, not by severity of punishment

- Garrett compared criminal behavior to children - they commit crimes because they think they'll get away with it, not because punishment is insufficient

- Cameras create permanent records that make crime detection highly likely, fundamentally changing the risk calculus

- Even with permissive DAs or judges, the existence of video evidence creates accountability

- Japan achieved approximately a 5x reduction in crime through widespread camera deployment

- Cameras effectively ended many categories of street crime, with criminals openly acknowledging they "can't commit crimes, there's cameras everywhere"

- Reduced crime would save cities enormous costs - San Francisco could save approximately $1 billion by reducing crime to Asian standards

- Noah emphasized that "law and order" rhetoric won't work in liberal cities - need a different framing

- The progressive case for surveillance: Enables walkable neighborhoods and vibrant urbanism

- Some American cities don't believe crime is a serious problem, viewing current levels as acceptable

- These cities will likely experience declining populations and tax bases, creating a downward spiral until they recognize the need for action

- Cities that resist camera technology often have underlying trust issues with their local government

- In communities where residents trust their elected officials want them to succeed, camera adoption is widely embraced

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction

3:00 - The State of Crime in America

6:04 - Crime Statistics Debate

10:59 - The Solution: Cameras Everywhere

12:15 - Sponsors: Notion | NetSuite

17:00 - How Deterrence Really Works

19:35 - Japan's Success with Cameras

22:46 - Privacy and Cultural Trade-offs

25:50 - Sponsor: Found

38:35 - Economic Benefits and Policy

44:19 - Closing Thoughts

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe's economic future, how internet discourse has changed politics, the rise of identitarian populism on both the right and left in America, and more.

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Sponsors:

Notion
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NetSuite
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• Europe continues to focus more on regulation than innovation, creating challenges for economic growth
• Traditional European industries like auto manufacturing are struggling with the transition to electric vehicles
• Chinese companies are producing better and cheaper electric cars that align with Europe's climate goals
• The Gaza deal is viewed positively because it considers Gaza's economic future beyond just stopping violence
• An economically self-sustaining Gaza might be less likely to support groups like Hamas
• Gulf Arab countries could potentially assist with Gaza's economic development given their expertise
• Israel has been militarily successful against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran but faces global criticism
• Israel's approach to international criticism has often relied on projecting strength rather than building alliances
• Israel remains dependent on other countries for military supplies despite its own manufacturing capabilities
• Regular people are disengaging from politics, leaving only the most extreme voices engaged ("evaporative cooling effect")
• Political discussions on platforms like X (Twitter) have become increasingly extreme
• Young political staffers who work for both parties are heavily consuming this extremist content
• The speakers observe parallels to the political unrest of the 1960s-70s, which eventually dissipated
• Unlike previous eras, today's extremism remains highly visible online even as the general public tunes out
• Discussion of Zohran Mamdani's election in New York as representing a new direction in leftist politics
• Concern about the mainstreaming of far-right figures like Nick Fuentes who previously were more fringe
• The conversation reflects concern about the polarization between extremes while the majority of people disengage
• There's agreement that substantive engagement with ideas is needed rather than simply dismissing opponents

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Timestamps:

00:00 — Introduction

00:24 — Europe and Russia

03:02 — China and Electric Cars

04:38 — Israel-Gaza Conflict

06:43 — American Sentiment Toward Israel

09:57 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite

12:00 — Online Extremism and Political Disengagement

22:50 — Staffers and Extremism

24:25 – Sponsor: Found

25:29 — New York Politics and Mamdani

31:47 — The Future of Leftist Politics

34:11 — Race and Identity

38:06 — Islam and Immigration

38:44 — Identitarian Populism

41:44 — Closing Thoughts

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102 originally aired on the Sphere Podcast, Noah Smith and Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry sit down for a debate on immigration. They cover the philosophical underpinnings of their arguments, where they find common ground, border enforcement, deportation, public opinion, and more.

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Sponsors:

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• Noah Smith and Pascal Emmanuel Gobry (PEG) engaged in a debate about immigration policy, focusing primarily on illegal immigration and enforcement approaches.
• The conversation centered on philosophical positions about borders, practical enforcement strategies, and the societal impacts of immigration policies.
• Both agreed that nations should have borders and control who enters, though they differed on enforcement methods.
• Noah advocated for employer-focused enforcement through company audits and fines rather than deportations.
• PEG supported stronger deportation measures and argued for the value of deterrence.
• They debated whether deportations would reduce crime affecting legal residents.
• Both agreed on the fiscal costs of illegal immigration as a significant issue.
• They discussed the political challenges of passing immigration reform.

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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
05:00 – Philosophical Foundations: Borders, Nations, and Policy
09:00 – “No Human is Illegal” & Historical Context
13:25 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
15:30 – Enforcement, Detention, and Public Perception
24:00 – Asylum Law, Legislative Gridlock, and Political Realities
28:10 – Sponsor: Found
41:00 – Mass Deportation: Crime, Economics, and Evidence
56:00 – Trust, Public Sentiment, and Policy Limits
1:10:00 – Final Thoughts & Outro
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Listen to the Sphere Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/48eWEcxSYDyrgjC3lO0EJZ

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB2gs2TBXeP7vyn9QUaaxjQ
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FOLLOW on X:

Pascal - https://x.com/pegobry_en

Noah - https://x.com/Noahpinion

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.

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Sponsors:

Notion

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NetSuite

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.netsuite.com/102

Found

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• AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivity
• AI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:
  • Like farming, solar power, and airlines
• Code-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoption
• Vertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining traction
• China controls the majority of rare earth mining and refining
• The US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:
  • Regulatory barriers to mining
  • Lack of solvent extraction technology and know-how
• China's fertility rate is lower than Japan and Europe
• However, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term

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Timestamps:
00:00 — Intro
00:52 — AI’s impact on productivity
02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity
03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity’s impact on productivity, lessons for AI
07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite
09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications
12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms)
16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models
22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges
32:20 — Sponsor: Found
33:33 — China’s demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation
54:06 — Recommendations for China’s economic policy, rationalizing the economy
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FOLLOW on X:

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https://x.com/Noahpinion

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover the transformation of global manufacturing, the rise of the electric tech stack, the landscape of jobs and economic policy, and the state of today's online discourse.

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SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and explore how AI is reshaping the economy, jobs, business profitability, industry competition, and financing, while drawing historical parallels and offering insights into its broader societal impact.

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SPONSORS:

Zcash

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Notion

AI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at ⁠notion.com/lp/econ102⁠

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Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/

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• AI Bubble Prediction: The speaker forecasts an AI crash similar to the 2001 dot-com bust, but believes AI will ultimately succeed long-term
• Employment Evolution, Not Elimination: Research shows unemployment rising in jobs that use AI less, contradicting fears that AI directly replaces workers
• Data Center Financing Risks: How financing methods for AI infrastructure could create systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis if private credit becomes the main vehicle
• Bond Market Shift: Companies like Meta are increasingly issuing their own bonds rather than using opaque private credit markets, a healthier approach to AI infrastructure financing
• Multiple Winners in AI: How the massive size of AI markets is enabling multiple successful companies in each category despite traditional concerns about moats
• Venture Capital's AI Approach: a16z has been investing heavily in AI companies but feels they've been "too conservative" given the multiple winners emerging across categories

Quotes:

"We tend to think that the markets are just so much bigger, and so even if there's no traditional moats protecting it from other entrants, that there can be multiple winners in a category.” - Erik Torenberg

LINKS:

• The a16z podcast: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX⁠
• Noahpinion newsletter: ⁠https://noahpinion.substack.com/⁠
• Erik Torenberg's Substack: ⁠https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/

Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co

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@eriktorenberg

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In this episode from the a16z Podcast, Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg discuss AGI, exploring how AI might transform labor markets, economic growth, space exploration, and geopolitical dynamics in the coming decades.

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SPONSORS:

Zcash

Zcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy.  Try it out. Download Zashi wallet and follow @genzcash to learn more: https://x.com/genzcash

Notion

AI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102

NetSuite

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/

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Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102

• Defining AGI: Noah and Dwarkesh begin by establishing working definitions of Artificial General Intelligence - from systems that "can do almost any job at least as well as humans" to more near-term AI that "can automate 95% of white-collar work"
• Current AI Limitations: Present systems lack crucial continual learning capabilities that would allow them to build context over time and improve with experience like humans do
• Historical Parallels: The conquistadors' conquest of the Aztec and Inca empires provides a cautionary tale about information asymmetry and how technological advantages can lead to domination
• AI Cooperation: The hosts discuss the need for US-China cooperation on AI safety, similar to the "red telephone" during the Cold War, to prevent AI-related sabotage
• AI Market Competition: Analysis of the surprising trend of increasing rather than decreasing competitors at the AI frontier, despite rising costs of training frontier models
• Network Effects vs. Technical Capability: Discussion of whether brand recognition (like "ChatGPT") or technological advantages will determine market leaders

Quotes:

"If you make the best AI, it gets even better. So why enter that? That's the big question." - Noah Smith

LINKS:

• The a16z podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX
• Noahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/
• Dwarkesh podcast: https://www.dwarkesh.com/
• Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/

Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co

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FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore Argentina's economic reforms under President Milei, development models in emerging economies like Vietnam and Malaysia, effective crime reduction strategies, and how AI might reshape our workforce and population dynamics in the coming decades.

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SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Shopify

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102

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Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102

• Argentina's Economic Reforms: President Milei's fiscal austerity measures to address chronic deficits without dollarization, focusing on necessary belt-tightening for a middle-income country supporting an upper-income welfare state
• Development Models in Emerging Economies: Case studies like Vietnam and Bangladesh demonstrating different paths to economic development
• The Crime Rate Decline: Focused deterrence approaches and community policing helping reduce violent crime, especially among high-risk populations
• Education and Fertility Rates: The inverse relationship between women's education and fertility rates, and the impossibility of reversing it without dystopian measures
• AI and Population Dynamics: How artificial intelligence might mitigate economic damage from population decline by replacing human labor

Quotes:

"If AI really can replace humans, then that will mitigate the economic damage from the losses of population." - Noah Smith

"Murders between people who know each other, between people who are like intimate partner violence has gone way down." - Noah Smith

"We need to basically create technologies that make it easy to take care of kids so that parenthood doesn't mean it's giant change in your life." - Noah Smith

LINKS:

• Noahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/
• Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/

Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co

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FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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This week, we’re airing a live conversation between Noah Smith and Sam D’Amico, founder and CEO of Impulse Labs, about how China’s Electric Tech Stack and tightly integrated supply chains are fueling its lead in industries from EVs to robotics, while exploring solutions for revitalizing U.S. manufacturing. The conversation also covers regulatory challenges, the value of co-locating engineers and factories, and the role of advanced technologies in shaping global production.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.

NetSuite

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Shopify

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠

https://www.impulselabs.com/

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TAKEAWAYS:

• The "Electric Tech Stack" Revolution: Electric Tech Stack" - batteries, motors, power electronics, and chips. This stack is replacing traditional manufacturing across industries, turning everything from cars to military equipment into "fancy drones.
• Why America Struggles with Manufacturing: Engineers live in expensive NIMBY cities while factory workers live elsewhere, breaking the crucial feedback loop needed for hardware iteration.
• China's Advantages: Chinese companies expect to build 200-300 prototype units before shipping, with engineers working directly with factory workers.
• Policy Solutions: Every major US city needs its own "Shenzhen" - a nearby manufacturing hub where engineers can drive to factories in 2 hours.
• The Appliance Strategy: Sam's company Impulse is using battery-powered stoves as a trojan horse to rebuild America's electric tech stack manufacturing base. By creating domestic demand for these technologies outside EVs, they're building the supply chain that other companies can leverage.
• The Stakes: The conversation emphasizes that this isn't just about economics - it's about national security. When Ukraine's toy drones can destroy Russian bombers 4,000 kilometers away, mastering the electric tech stack becomes a matter of military survival.

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze recent global events—from a political shift in New York to the Israel-Iran conflict—while exploring U.S.-China economic dynamics, evolving industrial policies, and the risk of a recession. The conversation also touches on historical economic shifts, tariffs, and manufacturing trends.

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SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Shopify

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠⁠.

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

China's industrial policy has an unprofitability problem: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/chinas-industrial-policy-has-an-unprofitability

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• New York City Politics: Discussion of a "Muslim socialist" winning what appears to be a NYC mayoral race.
• Middle East Geopolitics: Analysis of recent Iran bombing and its economic implications.
• China's Current Industrial Policy Problems: Xi Jinping's aggressive subsidization of strategic industries (EVs, semiconductors, batteries, solar panels).
• Key Economic Insights: China's export percentage of GDP is now lower than many developed countries, but the absolute volume still creates massive global impact due to China's size.
• US Manufacturing Revival: The importance of reducing regulatory barriers to enable more "sub-Elons" (entrepreneurs like Elon Musk).

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of Econ 102, we're republishing a conversation between Noah Smith and Derek Thompson recorded live on Substack in June. They explore Derek’s shift from The Atlantic to Substack and unpack the “abundance agenda” — a vision for revitalizing American politics through better housing, energy, and innovation policy. Their wide-ranging conversation touches on economic reform, trendspotting, and the evolving media landscape.

–

SPONSORS:

NetSuite

More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Shopify

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠.

AdQuick

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–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@DKThomp

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–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Derek Thompson Substack: https://www.derekthompson.org/

Abundance: https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482

Paul Krugman: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/

Matt Yglesias: https://www.slowboring.com/

Kyla Scanlan: https://kyla.substack.com/

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• Derek's Move to Substack: Derek left The Atlantic after 17 years to join Substack, driven by "party wanderlust" - seeing the vibrant community of writers like Noah, Matt Yglesias, and others.
• Art of Trend Spotting: Noah praises Derek's unique ability to identify major trends before others, noting he's "earlier to spot new and important trends than any other blogger or writer." Derek reveals his method involves paying attention to that inner voice asking "what the fuck is that?" about everyday observations - essentially being like "observational humor but not necessarily humorous."
• Abundance Agenda's Impact: The conversation reveals how the abundance movement has gained significant traction, with Derek noting that partnering with Ezra Klein was strategic since Klein has unique influence within Democratic circles. They discuss "Ezra Klein Derangement Syndrome" - how Klein's prominence makes him both influential and a target.
• Need to attack MAGA degrowth ideology: Abundance advocates should more aggressively counter Trump's "scarcity mindset" that responds to every shortage with deprivation rather than increased production.
• Federal housing incentives: Race-to-the-top style funding to reward localities for pro-housing policies.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, we're republishing a conversation from last month between Noah Smith and Substack CEO Chris Best, originally streamed on Substack Live. They discuss the future of media in an AI-driven world, including Noah's vision for AI-powered newsletters, the rise of independent voices, and the evolving roles of platforms like TikTok and Twitter. The conversation also explores Substack's potential as a breaking news hub, the broader impact of AI on content creation, shifting U.S.-China relations, and the role of industrial policy in shaping global dynamics.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Shopify

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠.

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@cjgbest

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

The Age of Twitter is finally ending. Can Substack take its place?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-age-of-twitter-is-finally-ending

Eugene Wei's Status as a Service:
https://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2019/2/19/status-as-a-service

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• Death of Twitter as Breaking News Platform: Death of Twitter as Breaking News Platform.
• Substack's Opportunity in Breaking News: Noah proposes that Substack could capture 80% of Twitter's former breaking news function.
• AI's Role in Media's Future: AI as search engine, curator, and summarizer to help process information overload.
• Attention Economy Problem: Chris highlights a crucial insight: "the media you can consume is not just a matter of getting what you want. It also shapes your desires and shapes what you want over time" - emphasizing that content choices shape identity over time.
• Geopolitical Concerns: Noah expresses pessimism about America's competitive position.

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss China’s economic strategies, technological advancements, and geopolitical challenges, contrasting them with U.S. policy. They discuss topics from the Hong Kong protests to battery manufacturing and emphasize the need for American industrial policy, education reform, and strategic investment to stay competitive.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Shopify

Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠.

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Is the U.S. in a "high-level equilibrium trap"?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/is-the-us-in-a-high-level-equilibrium

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• China's Strategic Position & Capabilities: China can easily police sea lanes to protect their own trade while potentially disrupting others, giving them a significant strategic advantage over America's traditional role as a global public goods provider.
• Financial System Stress: China faces a persistent drag from their real estate crash and mounting bad debt in local government financing vehicles. Banks are struggling to transition from real estate lending to manufacturing loans, many of which will likely go bad.
• Electric Tech Stack Revolution: The convergence of lithium-ion batteries, permanent magnet electric motors, and power electronics is creating a new technological paradigm that's replacing combustion engineering across multiple industries.
• America's Manufacturing Challenge: America has "too many bottlenecks" - only Elon Musk seems capable of overwhelming all 20+ bottlenecks simultaneously, while other talented entrepreneurs can only handle 15 or fewer.
• Republican Industrial Policy: America needs "Biden-style industrial policy without the everything bagel" - massive subsidies and support for electric tech manufacturing without progressive contractor requirements and community engagement processes.
• China's Innovation Plateau: By the 2040s, China may face Japan's experience where aging leadership in corporations reduces innovation and creates fewer opportunities for young talent.

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore persistent economic myths and recent developments—from cost disease in services like healthcare and education to stagnating manufacturing productivity, rising higher education costs, drug pricing policies, and student loan debates—while also reflecting on broader intellectual shifts driven by culture wars and foreign aid discussions.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• Healthcare & Education Cost Trends Reversing: Healthcare price growth has slowed significantly since 2009 and is now growing slower than average costs.
• Technology's Role in Services: AI potentially solving education through personalized one-on-one tutoring (referencing "The Diamond Age").
• Student Loans & Market Dynamics: Marginal students are dropping out of college, reducing demand.
• Pharmaceutical Pricing: Americans actually pay less on average for pharmaceuticals due to cheaper generics.
• Cultural Commentary: Discussing intellectual debates between prominent thinkers (Tyler Cowen vs. Scott Alexander on foreign aid, Scott Alexander vs. Curtis Yarvin on governance), emphasizing the importance of not getting trapped in the cultural moment of 2020-2021.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, we're republishing a conversation Noah Smith and Matt Yglesias hosted live on Substack this past Monday. They revisit a wide-ranging conversation on the transformative role of electric motors, batteries, and industrial policy in a politically polarized era, touching on the history of energy, global economic competition, AI regulation, the Inflation Reduction Act, Democratic strategy, and the need to redefine America’s identity amid demographic shifts.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@mattyglesias

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

Slow Boring: https://www.slowboring.com/podcast

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• America's Strategic Blindness: The US had momentum with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which Noah calls "great industrial policy" that was working. However, because it was framed primarily as climate policy rather than technological/economic competition, Republicans killed it for culture war reasons, failing to understand its strategic importance.
• The Climate Framing Problem: Matt was prescient in warning that framing industrial policy purely through climate would create Republican backlash. Noah admits Matt was right - while climate messaging helped pass the IRA initially, it made the policies vulnerable to being seen as "just some climate thing" rather than crucial economic policy.
• The Obama Era Split: They trace how the 2000s gave their generation the "peace and love" progressive agenda (gay marriage, ending Iraq War), while the 2010s brought the "angry leftist" phase (riots, racial grievance politics) - unlike boomers who got both simultaneously.
• Missing the Bush Playbook: During Bush's cascading failures (Iraq, Katrina, financial crisis), Democrats effectively built a broad coalition and defined clear opposition. Today, despite Trump's obvious failures (tariffs, debt, vaccine skepticism), Democrats aren't capitalizing similarly.
• Narrow Target Strategy: Like successful campaigns in Australia, Democrats need to edit down their message to core critiques of Republican governance rather than trying to advance every progressive priority simultaneously.
• Big Tent Revival: The party succeeded in 2006-2008 by recruiting diverse candidates and standing behind pro-gun, even some pro-life Democrats to clarify what the core message was versus peripheral issues.

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg examine global conflicts—especially India-Pakistan tensions—the U.S. military and industrial strategy amid rising threats from China, and the implications of AI and electrification, emphasizing the need for smarter immigration and industrial policies to maintain America's technological and geopolitical edge.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• India-Pakistan Conflict Analysis: Noah explains the territorial dispute over Kashmir dating back to the 1947 partition, with both countries claiming parts of each other's territory.
• America's Declining Global Influence: Noah argues we're seeing the "crumbling of Pax Americana" - reduced American deterrent effect allowing conflicts to escalate further.
• Critical Defense Industrial Base Concerns: America cannot match China's manufacturing capacity for military equipment, particularly missiles and drones.
• Economic Analysis - The Great Wage Stagnation: Wages stagnated for about 20 years, then resumed growth in the 1990s.
• Technology Transformation - The Electric Future: Battery and motor technology improvements are enabling electricity to replace combustion in cars, drones, appliances, and military equipment.

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg debunk myths about the American middle class and globalization, analyze historical data on wage stagnation and trade, assess China’s technological rise, and discuss U.S. economic resilience and policy responses to protectionism.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Globalization did not hollow out the American middle class: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/globalization-did-not-hollow-out

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

Debunking the Middle Class Hollowing Myth: Noah challenges the common narrative that trade and globalization hollowed out America's middle class.

Manufacturing and Economic Shifts: Noah explains that while manufacturing employment did decline significantly (about 3 million jobs in the 2000s), this didn't correspond with overall middle class decline.

The China Shock Reality: The "5% truth" in the middle class hollowing narrative relates to what economists call the "China Shock" - a period in the 2000s when Chinese imports surged rapidly.

America's Globalization Status: Contrary to popular belief, America has never been highly globalized compared to other countries. Import penetration (imports relative to GDP) is much lower than in countries like China, France or Germany.

Energy Crisis Impact: Noah suggests the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 had a more significant impact on American manufacturing than trade policies.

Sino-Futurism and China's Future: They discuss "Sino-futurism" - the idea that China represents the technological future. Noah argues this perspective is overblown, noting issues with China's rapid infrastructure development (like the durability of construction), urban planning problems, and the cyclical nature of technological leadership.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore how nostalgia influences politics and economic policy in the US and China, comparing their consumer cultures, industrial strategies, and the complex effects of tariffs on domestic economies and global relations.

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith

Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.

Spotify: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg⁠

Apple: ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165⁠

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠https://adquick.com/⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

If you think Americans are mad now, just wait a few months: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/if-you-think-americans-are-mad-now

Noahpinion: ⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

Nostalgia in Politics: They discussed the role of nostalgia in politics, both in the US and China.

Cultural Evolution: US and China: Noah argues China and America are more culturally similar than America and Germany due to both having replaced ancestral cultures with mass consumerism.

Tariffs and Economic Impact: The conversation analyzes Trump's tariff policies and their economic consequences.

US-China-Europe Relations: Europe may increasingly partner with China economically as US relations deteriorate.

Economic Consequences of Trade Policy: Noah argues tariffs don't reindustrialize a country but actually deindustrialize it.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore topics ranging from the futuristic themes of Black Mirror and the societal impact of technology to a critical analysis of Trump’s de-industrializing tariff policies versus Biden’s growth-focused subsidies, while also examining libertarianism’s influence on American politics and the cultural shifts it may entail.

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith

Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Worst-case scenarios and endgames for the Trump economy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/worst-case-scenarios-and-endgames

In which I review almost every episode of Black Mirror: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/in-which-i-review-almost-every-episode

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• Trump Administration Policies Discussion: Noah contrasts Trump's first term (pre-2019) with his expectations for the current term.
• Biden Administration's Industrial Policy Approach: Noah highlights the different approach under Biden: adding support rather than disrupting existing systems.
• Political and Economic Commentary: There's a discussion about Oren Cass (identified as a "conservative econ blogger" with a law degree) and his positions on industrial policy and tariffs.
• Social Media's Impact on American Society: Noah presents a theory that America was "uniquely vulnerable" to social media's effects due to its geographical and ideological diversity.
• Personal and Cultural Notes: The beginning features a discussion about the TV show "Black Mirror" and its exploration of technology implications.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the Trump administration’s trade policies, their impact on U.S. manufacturing and investment, discussing strategies to counter China’s influence through multi-country trade blocs and industrial policy, and examining currency dynamics, economic default risks, and the complexities of global trade.

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith

Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• Trade Policies: Noah describes the current administration's trade policies, particularly tariffs, as chaotic and poorly planned, comparing it to a "clown car" approach.
• Economic Impacts of Recent Trade Policies: Tariffs and trade uncertainty are hurting the economy by creating business uncertainty that discourages investment, disrupting supply chains for manufacturers reliant on imported components, and driving capital flight that raises borrowing costs through the selling of U.S. treasuries.
• Why Exports Matter: Noah emphasizes that exports (approximately $2.1 trillion worth) are crucial to the US economy.
• On Currency Strength: Noah explains that a strong dollar has both advantages (increased purchasing power) and disadvantages (makes exports less competitive).
• China Containment Strategy: Noah proposes an effective China containment strategy focused on creating a zero-tariff trade bloc among allied nations, building complete supply chains across friendly countries, targeting China with value-added tariffs rather than just final assembly tariffs, investing in industrial policy to strengthen key industries, and applying export controls strategically.

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the global repercussions of Trump’s broad tariff policies, critique misconceptions about trade deficits, and explore the economic fallout and potential policy responses.

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith

Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ 

All the arguments for Trumps Tariffs are wrong and bad: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/all-the-arguments-for-tariffs-are

This is called Capital Flight: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/this-is-called-capital-flight

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• Tariff Policy Analysis: They discuss the implementation of widespread tariffs, particularly focusing on how the administration set tariff rates without sound economic methodology, possibly using AI to generate justifications.
• Trade Deficit Misconception: Noah explains that trade deficits are often misunderstood - they're essentially loans where a country buys goods and provides IOUs (bonds) in return, not necessarily harmful to an economy.
• Manufacturing Impact: They argue that tariffs may actually harm domestic manufacturing by making imported components, machinery, and raw materials more expensive, potentially leading to de-industrialization rather than re-industrialization.
• International Relations: The discussion covers how trading partners are responding, with China imposing reciprocal high tariffs, while noting that many countries will likely seek alternative export markets rather than capitulate to demands.
• Long-term Economic Outlook: The discussion paints a concerning picture of potential rising unemployment, continued market volatility, and possible inflation depending on which economic forces (panic or inefficiency) prove stronger.

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the rise of the 'abundance' ideology among Democrats, assess Obama's economic legacy, and analyze the New Right's evolving influence, offering a broad perspective on shifting political and economic discourse.

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith

Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

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FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

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–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ 

Cory McArthur aka Irish Lotus: https://soundcloud.com/cory-mcarthur-879994262/irish-lotus

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• "Abundance" as a Political Concept: Abundance represents national unity and a "we're all in this together" approach, focusing on making things better for all Americans rather than pitting groups against each other.
• Economic Analysis: Demand vs. Supply Constraints: They discuss how the 2008 financial crisis created an "aggregate demand shock" where everyone wanted to hold cash rather than spend.
• National Debt Discussion: They discuss how US debt grew from 60% to 100% of GDP during Obama's administration. They also mention AI could potentially help by increasing productivity growth.
• "The New Right" Ideology: Noah characterizes the "new right" as centered around defending "Western civilization" in a more narrow sense than previous definitions.
• Social Media's Impact on Politics: Noah argues that small, vocal minorities on social media have outsized influence on institutions.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Tornberg explore Japan’s economic and societal structure—covering urban zoning, housing policy, and government efficiency—before critiquing Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, advocating for balanced market dynamics and governance, and discussing broader socio-political themes like right-wing ideologies, gender in the workforce, and economic populism.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

Found

 Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102

AdQuick

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–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

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–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Abundance: https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482

I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• Japan's Urban Development Success: Japan's efficient housing development stems from streamlined approvals, standardized zoning, administrative processes, and mixed-use zoning.
• Abundance Agenda Discussion: Noah analyzed Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson's "Abundance" book, which promotes a results-oriented progressive approach focused on building things.
• Government Structure and Process: Successful governance needs both market mechanisms and effective bureaucracy.
• Political Factions and Resistance: Discussion of different progressive factions (Warren vs. Bernie supporters).
• The "Doge" Discussion: References to "Doge" (likely Project 2025) as an ideological effort to reduce bureaucracy.

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore global economic issues, including US-European relations influenced by defense commitments, the impact of Trump’s policies, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its exclusion of India, the role of AI in economic growth, government spending’s effects on GDP, and briefly discuss Smith’s upcoming book, Weeb Economy, and Noah's trip to Japan.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

Found

 Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102

AdQuick

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Incogni

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Weeb Economy: https://bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880/

I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• U.S.-Europe Relations & Geopolitical Shifts: Examines the U.S. shift away from supporting Europe, debating whether it was exploited or harming its own interests, with Trump’s strength-focused foreign policy potentially pivoting toward Russia, risking economic and intelligence ties with Europe.
• China's Economic Strategy & Globalization: The Belt and Road Initiative has largely failed, with poorly executed projects and unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries.
• India's Industrialization & Economic Future: India needs a major shift in labor dynamics, particularly increasing women's participation in factory work.
• AI, Economic Growth & the O-Ring Theory: AI’s impact on economic growth is debated—some expect 10% growth, while Noah sees 5% as more realistic.
• Japan’s Economy & Currency Strength: Japan should push for a new Plaza Accord with the U.S. to strengthen the yen.
• AI’s Impact on Jobs & Productivity: AI is unlikely to eliminate all jobs but will require major adjustments in industries and legal structures.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the chaos caused by Trump's trade policies, tariffs' effects on the U.S. economy, potential recession risks, economic isolationism, policy uncertainty, investment impacts, and the broader cultural and societal shifts in America, including the decline of Christianity, the rise of wokeness, and community disintegration.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

Found

 Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Incogni

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• Economic Impact of Trump's Tariffs: Noah argues that Trump's tariffs (especially on Canada and Mexico) are damaging the US economy more severely than the China tariffs from his first term.
• Why Tariffs Are Harmful: Factors such as reduced market scale for American companies, loss of specialization benefits, technological isolation ("Galapagos Syndrome"), policy uncertainty hindering business investment, and the negative impact on exports due to exchange rate effects and retaliatory tariffs are all contributing challenges.
• Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Debate about whether tariffs will cause stagflation or a demand shock that lowers inflation.
• Cultural and Social Commentary: Discussion of Ennis Lyons' argument about "the return of the strong gods" (nationalism, family, tradition, religion).
• Innovation and National Success: Discussion about Japan's impressive innovation record (extensive list of Japanese inventions)

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In this episode, Noah Smith recently went on the Break the Rules podcast, hosted by Lev Polyakov, for a debate with Auron MacIntyre. They discuss the societal implications of AI development, focusing on Trump's relationships with tech leaders, AI systems like Stargate, surveillance, economic productivity, regulatory measures, geopolitical competition, and immigrant labor's role in technological advancements.

–

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

🎙️Break The Rules - Hosted by Lev Polyakov, Break The Rules brings different online & offline circles together at a time of social atomization in order to break echo-chambers.

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/break-the-rules/id1543233584

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0yovF9Vo8n1fF1DGlMuWBh

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@breakth3rules/

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

Found

 Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Incogni

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–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@LevPo

@AuronMacintyre

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Trump Liberty or Technocracy? Auron Macintyre & Noah Smith: https://www.youtube.com/live/pH_nuk94FQk?si=D-5qvd74cpBSjwfm

The Total State: How Liberal Democracies Become Tyrannies: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1684515580ref_=cm_sw_r_cp_ud_dp_5Q231Q8CQ65W8Z0PTQ3H

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• AI Development and Trump Administration: The discussion examines Donald Trump's meetings with tech leaders and the "Stargate" AI system, raising questions about whether the administration will embrace technocratic control systems or maintain populist principles.
• Labor Market Effects: Noah points out that despite previous AI advances, we've seen wage increases for lower-skilled workers and movement toward higher-skilled jobs, challenging assumptions about AI's negative impact on employment.
• Oligarchic Influences: Auron describes the current political landscape as an "age of oligarchy" where different factions of wealthy interests compete for influence, with Trump balancing populist rhetoric against tech billionaire support.
• Civilization Complexity Theory: Auron references Joseph Tainter's theory on how increasing complexity with diminishing returns contributes to civilizational collapse, suggesting AI may be an attempt to escape these human limitations.
• Immigration Comparisons: Noah argues that despite current debates about immigration, America faces fewer ethnic tensions than 100 years ago, providing historical perspective on current social challenges.

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This week, we're sharing Richard Hanania and Noah Smith’s live conversation from Feb 6th,  recorded for their Substack audiences. This is the first time the two writers have met, and in this conversation they covered fundamental differences between the American right and left movements. They also discuss Elon Musk's positioning as the future Republican kingmaker and Noah's theory that Musk envisions coordinating a global "anti-woke alliance" with Putin and Xi.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

Found

 Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102

AdQuick

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Incogni

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@RichardHanania

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Richard Hanania’s Newsletter: https://www.richardhanania.com/ 

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ 

Too many Americans still fear the future: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/too-many-americans-still-fear-the 

The chaos has arrived: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-chaos-has-arrived 

Trump's Executive Branch Revolution: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/trumps-executive-branch-revolution 

Trump impose large tariffs in first year?: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-first?play=false 

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• Richard notes Trump's first administration achieved success with Middle East normalization agreements.
• Noah compares Ukraine war to Finland's Winter War - Ukraine may lose territory but maintain independence.
• Richard questions whether taking NATO membership off the table could have prevented the Ukraine conflict.
• Right-wing politics revolves around personal loyalty while left-wing politics centers on ideological purity.
• Elon Musk is positioning himself as the kingmaker for the post-Trump Republican party.
• Richard supports technological progress, believing future generations should benefit from AI and genetic engineering.
• Noah argues societies that resist technological progress inevitably get left behind in global competition.
• Richard expresses skepticism about Democrats' ability to reform, citing Obama's failed education reform efforts.
• Noah predicts Democrats won't move away from "institutional wokeness" until the 2030s.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss three key areas where Democrats need to rethink their strategy: embracing anti-inflation policies similar to the Clinton era, focusing on genuine threats to democracy rather than partisan hobby horses, and abandoning progressive language policing that alienates voters. Noah also talks about how Elon Musk has transformed Republican effectiveness by bringing entrepreneurial talent to politics, arguing that Democrats need to stop alienating tech entrepreneurs and instead recruit similar talent to their side.

–

SPONSORS:

Carta

Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠.

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Found

 Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102

Incogni

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

TAKEAWAYS:

• Democrats can capitalize on the mistakes of their opponents, particularly regarding economic policies.
• The perception of inflation is a significant issue for voters, and Democrats need to address it effectively.
• Defending democracy is crucial, but Democrats must focus on the actual threats rather than long-term issues like gerrymandering.
• The Democratic Party needs to reassess its progressive ideals and messaging to resonate with a broader audience.
• Cultural shifts, such as language policing, can alienate potential supporters for the Democratic Party.
• The entrepreneurial class holds significant power and talent that Democrats should engage with.
• Democrats need to communicate a patriotic vision of America to counter negative narratives.
• The trans movement is distinct from other civil rights movements and requires a nuanced approach.
• A clear and assertive stance on America's founding principles can help Democrats regain credibility. Young people are increasingly forming situationships instead of traditional relationships.
• The Inflation Reduction Act was more about political maneuvering than actual inflation reduction.
• Biden's economic policies have effectively reduced inflation through various measures.
• Democracy is threatened not just by election denial but by the erosion of checks and balances.
• A new economic paradigm is needed that addresses modern challenges and national security.
• Deregulation is essential for economic growth and should be prioritized.
• The bureaucratic model in Japan could offer insights for improving U.S. governance.
• Elon Musk's approach to government may be influenced by right-wing media rather than policy experts.
• A pluralistic social media ecosystem is emerging as people seek alternatives to traditional platforms.
• There is potential for a smarter Democratic party in response to the changing political landscape.

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In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss how Ukraine has proven surprisingly resilient throughout the war by maintaining its economy and developing significant domestic drone manufacturing capabilities. He argues that "Europe is not toothless" despite America's shifting role, detailing how Europe collectively has greater manufacturing capacity than America and identifying three key reforms Europe needs: deregulating software, building energy infrastructure, and removing internal trade barriers.

–

SPONSORS:

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

AdQuick

The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.

Found

 Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102

Incogni

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102

–

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

–

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

–

RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: It’s time for Europe to stand up https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/its-time-for-europe-to-stand-up

Book: Old Man’s War by John Scalzi https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36510196-old-man-s-war

–

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod 

–

TAKEAWAYS

• Ukraine has shown resilience in sustaining its war efforts.
• US aid to Ukraine is becoming less crucial over time.
• Turkey's support for Ukraine is significant.
• Europe has substantial manufacturing capacity for military needs.
• Historical patterns of expansionism are relevant to current geopolitics. Putin's expansionist ambitions can be compared to Louis XIV's.
• Europe's aging population poses challenges for military readiness.
• Russia's reliance on China complicates its geopolitical stance.
• Economic reforms are crucial for Europe's resilience, including deregulation of the software industry.
• Internal trade barriers hinder European economic integration.
• America's role as a protector of Europe is diminishing.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, we’re bringing you an episode from the How to Money podcast, hosted by Joel Larsgaard and Matt Altmix, with special guest Noah Smith. Together, they dive into a range of topics, including the impact of tariffs, Substack’s revolutionary media model, and Noah’s unique economic philosophy. Tune in for insights on the escalating national debt, the baby bust, and the rising costs of U.S. healthcare. Noah also offers solutions, with a focus on boosting productivity and strategic immigration. Plus, don’t miss their take on Argentina’s dramatic economic decisions!

--

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

--

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Check out How To Money Podcast on:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-to-money/id1337718773

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6i5Cau3GShqOxHkSRT5TjL

iHeart: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-how-to-money-30166328/

--

Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.howtomoney.com/tariffs-doge-and-your-money-w-noahpinion/)

• Trump's approach to tariffs appears to be influenced by stock market reactions.
• The main spending pressures come from healthcare programs (Medicare and Medicaid).
• Declining birth rates (around 1.5-1.6 children per woman in developed countries) pose significant economic challenges.
• Healthcare costs are primarily driven by providers such as hospitals, doctors, equipment, and pharma, while insurance companies, operating on low profit margins, mainly serve as cost pass-throughs, with recent slowdowns in cost growth potentially easing budget pressures.
• Technological advances in AI, solar, and batteries could drive future growth.
• President Milei's economic reforms, though initially painful, are showing positive results.

--

SPONSORS:

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

Found

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

How To Money: https://www.howtomoney.com/

Tariffs, DOGE, and Your Money w/ Noahpinion – Episode 944: https://www.howtomoney.com/tariffs-doge-and-your-money-w-noahpinion/

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg talk about DOGE, Elon Musk's initiative to reform government spending, and explore why it might be more about ideology than efficiency. Noah talks about how he would fix the US debt beyond simply cutting waste. They also cover the future of major programs like Medicaid ($804B/year), the trade-offs between inflation and austerity, and how conservatives might reshape federal institutions despite education polarization. Plus: why comparing government efficiency to Twitter's headcount reduction isn't as straightforward as it seems.

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Highlights from the Episode:

• Noah argues that while Doge (Department of Government Efficiency) is publicly presented as a cost-cutting initiative, it's primarily an ideological project aimed at reducing "woke" initiatives in government.
• As zero-interest debt gets rolled over at higher rates (around 4%), interest costs are reaching historic highs as a percentage of GDP.
• Austerity measures will likely involve difficult choices for the middle class. Healthcare spending in the U.S. is disproportionately high compared to other wealthy nations.
• Government efficiency is harder to measure than corporate efficiency due to its multiple, often conflicting objectives, the influence of democratic processes, and congressional oversight, which complicates decision-making about program value.

--

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NetSuite

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/what-i-think-doge-is-really-up-to

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This week, Noah Smith and Stripe CEO Patrick Collison recorded a live conversation on Substack covering topics such as American technological leadership, global competition, industrial policy, foreign direct investment, post-financial crisis productivity trends, US financial system advantages, progressive policies, the middle class, tariffs, immigration, technological advancements like humanoid robots, Gen Z’s well-being, and key policy recommendations for economic and social progress. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already.

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Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/patrick-collison-interview-at-least)

• The U.S. has maintained its technological edge relative to most developed nations, particularly pulling ahead of Europe, Japan, and South Korea.
• A key U.S. advantage is its diverse financing system - about 80% of U.S. commercial lending is non-bank lending, compared to only 20% in the UK.
• The U.S. benefits from a large, unified domestic market, further strengthened by continued immigration, which attracts investment and fosters clustering effects, especially in sectors like software.
• There are concerns about Gen Z's reported lower life satisfaction and mental health challenges.
• Replacing NEPA with administrative review (similar to Japan's system).

--

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NetSuite

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Notion

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

Patrick Collison interview + at least five interesting things: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/patrick-collison-interview-at-least

Stripe: https://stripe.com/

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In this week’s episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith, with special guest Nathan Labenz (host of AI podcast The Cognitive Revolution) breaks down the current landscape of U.S.-China relations and how once-allies became rivals under Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. While China shows growing AI capabilities like DeepSeek, Smith emphasizes that the real concern isn't about AI models but rather military applications like autonomous drones and precision weapons, suggesting that the next decade represents a critical period for managing tensions and establishing deterrence.

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Check out Nathan Labenz's podcast The Cognitive Revolution

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast/

--

Highlights from the Episode:

• The US and China were largely de facto allies throughout the 20th century, except for brief periods like the Korean War.
• Xi Jinping's "great changes unseen in a century" doctrine signals intent to challenge US-led global order.
• US chip export controls have been effective at limiting China's advanced chip manufacturing.
• Military technology prioritizes maintaining a technological edge in precision weapons and autonomous systems, with conventional deterrence still key despite nuclear capabilities, while chip controls focus on preserving advantages in military applications over civilian technology.
• Concerns about AI competition include skepticism over maintaining US "AI supremacy," the potential difficulty in containing AI capabilities like those of DeepSeek, and the risk that an aggressive approach could escalate conflict.

--

SPONSORS:

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

Found

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

Dwarkesh podcast with Sarah Paine https://youtu.be/fx6fakjQBdo?si=FR4ZGTGWzXsO4__E

Book: Rush Doshi, The Long Game https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52617647-the-long-game

Book: John Mearsheimer Conventional Deterrence https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/224128.Conventional_Deterrence

Noahpinion essay: Simple Lessons from China's Big AI Breakthrough https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-simple-lessons-from-chinas-big

Noahpinion Essay: The Elemental Foe https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-elemental-foe?utm_source=publication-search

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This week Noah Smith and economist Paul Krugman hopped on a call to discuss Paul's departure from the New York Times, the benefits of independent writing, U.S. manufacturing and industrial policy, geopolitics, Trump 2.0, and the impact of public opinion on economic and political discourse. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already.

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Highlights from the Episode: (for more head to https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/paul-krugman-and-noah-smith-have)

• Discussed the transitioning from traditional media (NYT, Bloomberg) to Substack for greater editorial freedom and authentic voice, noting that traditional outlets still maintain an "establishment" mindset.
• On Substack, Krugman settlies on 1100 words per post and Noah aims for 2000-2500 words.
• Public perception of the economy often shifts dramatically based on political affiliation rather than actual economic conditions.
• How the Ukraine war has highlighted the importance of manufacturing capability for national security.
• Current Political Climate: Greater concern about current political risks compared to previous eras like the Reagan administration.
• Explored how national security concerns are reshaping trade policy thinking.

--

SPONSORS:

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

Notion

📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod

AdQuick

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FOLLOW ON X:

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LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/paul-krugman-and-noah-smith-have

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In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss wide range of topics, including Trump’s executive orders and their effects on U.S. politics, international tariffs, Michael Pettis's views on China's economy, the Middle East’s potential with solar energy, and Europe’s socio-political shifts, all through the lens of economics.

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Highlights from the Episode:

• There's worry about potential economic instability if Trump's aggressive trade policies lead to stagflation.
• Concern about China potentially influencing Trump through various financial mechanisms, including cryptocurrency.
• The Middle East holds a surprisingly optimistic outlook, with the end of the "oil curse" prompting institutional growth, its geography offering ideal conditions for solar energy, and the potential for solar-powered desalination to transform agriculture.
• European countries struggle more with integration due to different cultural approaches and institutional structures.
• Interesting parallel drawn between Europe's historical transformation after the 30 Years War and potential for Middle East development.

--

SPONSORS:

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

Notion

📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod

AdQuick

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FOLLOW ON X:

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LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

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While traveling to Taiwan, Noah Smith sat down with ChinaTalk's managing editor and Taipei correspondent Lily Ottinger to explore wide range of geopolitical and economic issues, including the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on Asia, where Elon Musk stands on Taiwan, nuclear proliferation, China's economic strategies, Taiwan's defense and diplomatic policies, and demographic shifts.

--

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST: ChinaTalk

Check out ChinaTalk. Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/chinatalk/id1289062927

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/448WaJhgJGJKnQ3HCE2EBa

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaTalkMedia

--

Highlights from the Episode:

• Trump's coalition now includes a powerful tech sector pushing for deregulation, while his personal corruption and susceptibility to influence could make him vulnerable to China, particularly through platforms like TikTok, with export controls serving as a key indicator of his policy stance toward Beijing.
• Nuclear weapons have historically proven effective at preventing invasion of states that possess them.
• China is experiencing debt deflation similar to Japan's 1990s situation, where falling prices increase the real burden of debt.
• Xi Jinping's conservative economic views, particularly resistance to stimulus and healthcare spending, may prolong recovery.
• Taiwan's laid-back culture and success stand in stark contrast to mainland China's approach.
• Under Xi, China has reversed some of the liberalization that occurred under previous leaders.

--

SPONSORS:

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

Notion

📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod

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FOLLOW ON X:

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LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

ChinaTalk: https://www.chinatalk.media/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/lily-ottinger/

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In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Scott Sumner, an American economist and previously the Director of the Program on Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, examine the impact of U.S.-China relations on economic and industrial policies, discussing topics such as tariffs, manufacturing capabilities, technologies like drones and batteries, climate change, defense strategies, and the evolving role of neoliberalism.

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Modern Relationships

Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

--

Highlights from the Episode:

• Neoliberalism vs. Industrial Policy: The world is moving away from neoliberalism toward industrial policy and authoritarian nationalism.
• Chinese manufacturing of green technology has supported global climate efforts, sparking debate over whether US trade barriers on Chinese green tech are counterproductive, alongside a discussion of carbon taxes versus other climate policies.
• China now matches US and allies combined in manufacturing capacity.
• Trump's tariffs are seen as ineffective for reindustrialization, while Biden's CHIPS Act and IRA are viewed as more successful in specific sectors, prompting a discussion on targeted versus broad industrial policies.
• Housing and healthcare costs are significant barriers to living standards.

--

SPONSORS:

Notion

📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

AdQuick

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FOLLOW ON X:

@ScottSumnerTMI

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

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LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

The Pursuit of Happiness: https://scottsumner.substack.com/

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Xi Jinping's political future, U.S.-China tensions, Trump's and Biden's policies, the 2019 global protests, China's economic troubles, and the challenges facing Western nations, while also emphasizing the need for bipartisan cooperation on U.S. industrial policy.

--

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Modern Relationships

Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

--

Highlights from the Episode:

• China faces significant economic headwinds with deflation and productivity challenges, requiring major policy interventions including potential bailouts to address their real estate crisis.
• Justin Trudeau's legacy in Canada is marked by criticism of his economic management, the country's ongoing productivity challenges, an overreliance on the oil sector as a temporary fix for deeper economic issues, and stagnant business investment despite partial recovery in oil prices.
• The conservative coalition in America has evolved to become more diverse, with Latino and Asian voter shifts playing a crucial role in recent electoral outcomes.
• Biden's industrial policy has shown success in areas like solar panel manufacturing and chip production, despite implementation challenges around DEI and union requirements.
• Elon Musk's involvement in European politics is analyzed in terms of how Europe could counter his influence through market access, with an observation that his focus on the region may be part of rebuilding a coalition after disputes over immigration.

--

SPONSORS:

Notion

📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/upstreampod

NetSuite

More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

--

SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

--

FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

--

LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

The Players on the Eve of Destruction: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-players-on-the-eve-of-destruction

How do we measure whether China's economy is "ahead" of America's?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-do-we-measure-whether-chinas

Biden's tarnished industrial legacy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/bidens-tarnished-industrial-legacy

Trudeau was a poor steward of Canada's economy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/trudeau-was-a-poor-steward-of-canadas

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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Silicon Valley's cultural influence, Marc Andreessen's predictions, what comes after wokeness, tariffs on China, Reaganomics, the 'polycrisis,' the future of industrial policy, and political dynamics involving Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Paul Krugman.

--

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

--

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Modern Relationships

Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

--

Highlights from the Episode:

• The decline of "wokeness" follows historical patterns of social movements, with San Francisco leading both adoption and abandonment of cultural trends.
• Industrial policy and targeted tariffs are crucial for American manufacturing competitiveness, particularly in relation to China.
• The challenges of implementing meaningful austerity measures in the US government and the necessity of making difficult policy choices.
• The complex relationship between Trump and Elon Musk's competing visions for America's economic and foreign policy future.
• Paul Krugman's legacy: Reviving Keynesian economics during Great Recession.

--

SPONSORS:

GiveWell

GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.

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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

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FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

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LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

Marc Andreessen on Trump, the vibe shift, and what’s after wokeness: https://youtu.be/l8X8jecivWw?si=ZKfdrvEetz8sZ6Hi

The Wokeness series: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-wokeness-series

Ready Player One: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/9969571-ready-player-one

We Have Never Been Woke: https://www.amazon.com/Have-Never-Been-Woke-Contradictions/dp/0691232601

Musa al-Garbhi Substack: https://musaalgharbi.substack.com/

Akira: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0094625/

The Big Chill: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0085244/

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In today's episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg answer listeners' questions and discuss global economic issues such as China's demographic challenges, currency crises, GDP vs. GDP per capita, the efficacy of long prison sentences, and the risks and benefits of economic stimulus, currency depreciation, and trade imbalances.

--

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

--

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Modern Relationships

Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

--

Highlights from the Episode:

• The U.S. trade deficit represents IOUs to other countries that must eventually be paid back or partially defaulted on through inflation. A persistent trade deficit is not in America's long-term interest.
• There are two main types of economic crises: currency crises (typically involving inflation) and deflationary depressions. They require opposite policy responses - austerity for currency crises and stimulus for deflationary depressions.
• China is currently experiencing a deflationary crisis due to its real estate bubble burst and debt overhang, leading to falling prices and attempts to export their way out of trouble.

--

SPONSORS:

GiveWell

GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.

NetSuite

More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/

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FOLLOW ON X:

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@eriktorenberg

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LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/good-cities-cant-exist-without-public

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/macroeconomics-the-predator-of-foolish

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This week, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss modern dating dynamics, cultural shifts, and the impact of technology and social media on relationships with author and former dating advice columnist Katherine Dee, exploring generational differences contributing to the gender war and the broader societal implications.

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

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Highlights from the Episode:

• Dating markets vary significantly by location and social context - what works in San Francisco differs from New York, and tech industry dating differs from other sectors.
• There's a noticeable trend toward "avoidant behavior" in younger generations, manifesting in situationships and difficulty with direct communication.
• Social media and technology have fundamentally altered how people connect, leading to more fragmented and isolated dating experiences.

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GiveWell

GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.

NetSuite

More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/

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Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

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Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the high costs of healthcare, the challenges facing the center-left, the possibility of infinite economic growth, solutions to declining fertility rates, and the role of technology in addressing demographic challenges.

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack Pricing

Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg

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Highlights from the Episode:

• Health insurance companies are often unfairly blamed for high healthcare costs, while making only 1-3% profit margins. The real cost drivers are healthcare providers and hospital systems.
• National health insurance, as implemented in countries like Japan, can effectively control costs but may risk reducing healthcare innovation.
• Population growth follows exponential functions, meaning societies are always trending toward either over-population or under-population, with no stable middle ground without active intervention.

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SPONSORS:

GiveWell

GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.

NetSuite

More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/

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LINKS:

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This week, Noah Smith talks to Erik Torenberg about his viral post on land acknowledgements, exploring how nations should be defined by institutions rather than ethnic identity. The conversation expands into a discussion of immigration, cultural assimilation, and sovereignty across countries like Israel, Japan, South Korea, and Botswana, examining how different nations navigate the balance between cultural preservation and integration. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/b7f9f1c6-5c17-4877-9be7-c0b3d56c7e78

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🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack Pricing

Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg

--

SPONSORS:

GiveWell

GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.

NetSuite

More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/

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LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

No, you are not on Indigenous land: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/no-you-are-not-on-indigenous-land

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In today's special episode, we're sharing a conversation between Noah Smith and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recorded back in June for the Bankless podcast. They discuss whether authoritarian regimes could outcompete liberal democracies in the 21st century, exploring the impact of technological advancements, the internet, and decentralized technologies like crypto on information dynamics and the preservation of liberal values. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/e7dc596f-bc8e-4574-aebd-c6f579a76175

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Bankless

The Ultimate Guide to Crypto Finance. DeFi, NFTs, and cryptocurrencies. Level up. Go bankless.

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Bankless

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bankless/id1499409058

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5ll0fkqIGyUfSOn9CTfHjC

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SPONSORS:

GiveWell

GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://www.givewell.org and select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.

Incogni

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102

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LINKS:

Bankless: https://www.bankless.com/

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

How liberal democracy might lose the 21st century: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-liberal-democracy-might-lose

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This week, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith explore economic policies, political dynamics, societal issues, including the abolition of income tax, government agency efficiency, the evolving political landscape, technology's impact on freedom and dignity, and the challenges of maintaining a competent civil service. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/ab409e21-1697-4621-a9b8-cfd3149e4e35

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🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack Pricing

Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg

--

SPONSORS:

GiveWell

GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.

Incogni

Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/econ102

📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/

📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod

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Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the evolution and challenges of urban development in American cities, particularly the rise and fall of blue cities like San Francisco and New York, while exploring historical trends, fiscal policies, and socio-political dynamics. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/69fa9439-ace9-43c3-9a96-9876a7e440bc

—

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Unpack Pricing

Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg

—

SPONSORS:

GiveWell

GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.

NetSuite

More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/

📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod

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LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-blue-cities-must-be-fixed

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Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the aftermath of the Trump 2024 election, debating what to expect on political strategies, economic policies, and the power of figures like Elon Musk, while discussing potential shifts needed within the Democratic Party to address changing voter demographics. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/7411dfd6-68b4-4590-b8c5-64aac8ba953f

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SPONSORS:

GiveWell

GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.

NetSuite

More than 40,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102

📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/

📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://www.notion.com/product/ai?utm_source=podcasts&utm_medium=upstreampod

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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

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FOLLOW ON X:

@noahpinion

@eriktorenberg

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LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

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This week on Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg examine the 2024 presidential election, Trump's influence on American politics, and the interplay of conservative movements with domestic and international issues. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/70765901-d8f7-46b6-b580-3cc3f3874b7f

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📰 Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

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SPONSORS:

GiveWell

GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.

Weights & Biases

Weights & Biases Weave is a lightweight AI developer toolkit designed to simplify your LLM app development. With Weave, you can trace and debug input, metadata and output with just 2 lines of code. Make real progress on your LLM development and visit the following link to get started with Weave today: https://wandb.me/cr

ANROK is the enterprise-grade solution that automates sales tax compliance worldwide. Anrok tracks your exposure, calculates tax, and handles filings—all in one platform. Trusted by Notion, Anthropic, and Vanta. Visit https://www.anrok.com/turpentine to claim your free nexus study and take control of your SaaS tax strategy.

📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at https://carta.com/investors/

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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

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LINKS:

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Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the historical Axis powers in comparison to today's emerging adversarial nations, emphasizing geopolitical dynamics, military capabilities, and the evolving balance of power. For full shownotes, visit highlight: https://highlightai.com/share/577e5681-76d2-498c-8ebc-7b136b1b598f

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Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess

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SPONSOR:

GiveWell

GiveWell spends 50,000 hours every year doing deep-dives into different charitable programs to try to find the ways to do the most good for your dollar. GiveWell has now spent over 17 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to a few of the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they’ve found. Visit https://www.givewell.org to find out more or make a donation. Select PODCAST and enter Econ 102 at checkout to make sure they know you heard about them from us.

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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co

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LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

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