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LeBron James is going after an AI sports betting app, and the cease and desist letter raises a question the industry hasn't answered yet: how much of a famous name can a betting product borrow before it crosses a line? Then French police are investigating a series of bets that predicted the exact order of the top five finishers in last month's Ballon d'Or, which puts insider trading and prediction markets back in the spotlight. The Circle Back crew of Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg reacts to it all live. We also get into whether sportsbook VIP programs actually serve bettors or just the books, and look at what the data on prediction market combos says about who is really winning, and what it means if market makers can recognize repeat accounts and decide who to quote. The weekend gave us plenty to react to too. We break down NFL Week 9, from the walk-off field goal and the Giants stunning the Eagles in Philadelphia to Joe Burrow taking over as the MVP favorite, then run through the rest of the sports world, including Philip Rivers heading to NC State, Notre Dame's win over Miami, and Kyle Larson's Cup Series win. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/4eNvuWc LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 5:21 - NFL Week 9 Reactions 22:52 - Other Weekend Recap 33:33 - LeBron's Cease and Desist to Bron AI 43:02 - Ballon d'Or Insider Trading Investigation 50:21 - Hitman and King Ye on Sportsbook VIP Programs 1:03:13 - Prediction Market Combos 1:20:35 - Establish The Run Chnages To Their Service 1:32:57 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CircleBack #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #NFLWeek9 #NFL #LeBronJames #BallonDor #SportsBettingNews Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How AI is helping sharp NBA bettors connect their models and find more plays than ever. After a full offseason working with AI, Kirk Evans breaks down how his props, futures and awards screens, sides and totals, and WNBA series sims now feed each other, why he can act on smaller edges with more confidence, and why you should never let AI make its own decisions inside a betting model. Then, Kirk explains why he called the NBA's new ban on same-player under parlays, "first of" markets, and unders on low-minute players a nothing burger, and whether anything has changed a few weeks into the season. Also on this episode: Kirk's biggest mistake as an NBA bettor and how injury cluster effects changed his process, the price a 99% future would need to trade at to tie up your money, and the one stat he wishes existed for his models. Plus a rant on optimism versus pessimism, a rant on birthday messages, and a pair of +EV moves of the week. Jacob Gramegna hosts Off Script with sharp NBA bettor Kirk Evans. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/4eNvuWc LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Kirk - https://x.com/KirkEvans0 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Work In Progress Check 12:28 - Have the NBA's betting bans changed anything? 19:19 - Mailbag: Answering Your Questions 29:57 - What Grinds My Gears 37:48 - +EV Moves Of The Week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #NBABetting #AIBetting #SportsBetting #BettingStrategy #BettingTips #NBA #SharpBetting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How do pro bettors find their biggest edges, and what do they do differently once they have one? Pro Sports Bettor and Trader Chris "Flup" Dierkes breaks down how he got paid at 30-1 on a futures price closer to 10-1, then found correlated parlays priced as if every leg were independent. He explains why he spammed it all season without getting banned, the masking mistakes he'd fix today, how throwing junk legs into a parlay hides a 100% ROI edge, and why bringing other people in to get more money down would have been the real move. On this episode of Legendary Loopholes, a Circles Off series where sharp bettors share the biggest edges of their past, Jacob Gramegna sits down with Flup to cover what he'd do differently and the one habit that leads to edges like this: click around and try everything. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/4eNvuWc LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Chris - https://x.com/Flupnolide 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #LegendaryLoopholes #SportsBetting #ProBettor #BettingEdges #Parlays #SharpBettor #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Would you lay the Cowboys at -200 after they closed -340 against the Cardinals? We break down a viral take on heavy favorites, what professional bettors actually do when the price gets that steep, and why it's the kind of betting advice you should never follow. We also react to NFL Week 8, get into Saquon Barkley selling his stake in a prediction market, and run through the rest of the weekend: F1, Beat Luke Littler, the WNBA Finals finishes, Kucherov's trade request, and Indiana vs Minnesota ending with two 60 yard field goals. Then we read comments from last week's show, cover an online fight between Haralabob and Kent Lacob over the Valkyries and CD Castellon, and close with the Chopping Block. Streamed live with host Jacob Gramegna and guests Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/4eNvuWc LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 1:56 - Do Pros Bet -200s? 26:24 - NFL Week 8 Reaction 40:48 - Other Weekend Recap 52:44 - Saquon Barkley Sells Stake 1:00:36 - Comments From Last Week 1:15:58 - Haralabob vs Kent Lacob 1:27:46 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CircleBack #SportsBetting #NFLBetting #NFLWeek8 #SaquonBarkley #PredictionMarkets #CowboysCardinals #BettingAdvice #CirclesOff #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why is right now the golden age of same game parlays? Professional bettor and trader Rishi breaks down how he finds correlated outcomes with nothing but game knowledge and no model, why prices on prediction markets are beating what he sees at sportsbooks, and what the new NBA prop unders mean for his approach. Plus, the Thursday Night Football position he took when Christian Watson went to the hospital, the Bermuda Championship cancellation that cost a market maker $185K, viewer mailbag questions, what grinds our gears, and the +EV moves of the week. This is Off Script hosted by Jacob Gramegna and presented by ProphetX. 🎥 Watch Rishi's earlier interview with Rob: https://youtu.be/0bvC0KjTr1E 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/4eNvuWc LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rishi - https://x.com/Rishibets OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Work In Progress Check 16:14 - Breaking News: Thursday Night Football 26:50 - Breaking News: Bermuda Championship 37:26 - Mailbag: Answering Your Questions 45:52 - What Grinds My Gears 52:57 - +EV Moves Of The Week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SameGameParlays #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #NBAProps #OffScript Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

China breaks down a NASCAR edge from a time when betting meant calling in plays on a recorded line and almost nobody had an odds screen. It was a loophole built on how one bookie priced the races, and it turned into one of the best spots of his betting career. In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, recorded at BetBash, Jacob Gramegna sits down with China to talk about what betting looked like before line movement was a thing and how that edge shaped the way he thinks about betting. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/4eNvuWc LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow China - https://x.com/Chinamaniac 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #LegendaryLoopholes #NASCAR #SportsBetting #BetBash #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

One of the most shocking weeks of NFL survivor carnage, led by the Texans' overtime loss to the Giants, plus NFL Week 7 reactions and the rest of the weekend recap, including the World Series Game 2 check swing that may have been the wrong call. We react to Raheem Palmer's take on middling NFL games and whether risking 10 cents to win 2 dollars is worth it, go through your comments from last week's show, break down a viral post from a bettor who is down about a DoorDash lunch after 7 years of betting, cover Dr. Jesse Morse retiring from NFL injury analysis and Rob's plan to start his own version, and close with the Chopping Block. Live with Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/4eNvuWc LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 3:00 - NFL Week 7 Reactions + NFL Survivor Carnage 25:33 - World Series Game 2 Check Swing 34:01 - Is Middling Worth It? 43:35 - Reading Your Comments 1:00:16 - Down A DoorDash Lunch After 7 Years Of Betting 1:08:29 - Dr. Jesse Morse Retires From NFL Injury Analysis 1:15:28 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CircleBack #NFL #NFLSurvivor #SportsBetting #WorldSeries #Middling #SurvivorPool Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Peanut breaks down how he rebuilt his NBA player prop model from the ground up into an automated dashboard, what changed from the old manual process, and how he decides which assumptions to adjust when a player's role or shot profile changes. He also explains the futures and awards model he's building, how to account for voter behavior, and the early season question every NBA bettor faces: how much to react to a team's first ten games, how to tell a real change from noise, and how to read rookies and later picks who start hot. The mailbag covers whether the link between defensive RAPM, height and assist rate is a real effect, Peanut's biggest betting mistake and how it changed his process, and political debate hypotheticals. The episode closes with What Grinds My Gears, from fourth down analytics to touts who reset every season, and the +EV Moves Of The Week. Jacob Gramegna is joined by Peanut, a pro sports bettor, for this episode of Off Script. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Peanut - https://x.com/peanut_bettor OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Work In Progress Check 17:47 - Early-Season Overreactions 21:14 - Rookies And New Faces 26:10 - Mailbag: Answering Your Questions 37:04 - What Grinds My Gears 45:58 - +EV Moves Of The Week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #NBABetting #NBAProps #PlayerProps #SportsBetting #OffScript Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Most same game parlays lose because bettors stack two good legs that have nothing to do with each other. In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, full time NBA bettor Calvin breaks down the same game parlay that paid +4000 when some sportsbooks priced a rookie center's blocks and double double as if they were unrelated, and shows how to find correlation the market hasn't accounted for. Calvin walks through the Portland Trail Blazers' Donovan Clingan, his foul trouble, and why four blocks means four contested shots with no foul, which means more minutes. He explains how some books simulated that correctly while others just added a tax, what he'd do differently today, including laddering the legs, and how to check whether a correlation is real before you bet it. Hosted by Jacob Gramegna. 🎥 Watch Calvin's full interview: https://youtu.be/x50poL3Uv-A 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Calvin - https://x.com/CalvinAndHobo 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SameGameParlay #SGP #NBABetting #SportsBetting #LegendaryLoopholes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A Grandissimo entry worth an estimated $513,333 never got its Week 6 pick in, and the player says his proxy forgot to submit it. That left 14 entries chasing the $7.7 million winner-take-all prize, and then the Rams lost to the Cardinals and the Colts fell to the Titans, wiping out more than half of the Survivor field. Over 1,600 of 2,908 entries were gone in a single Sunday. We also ask whether LA is a fraud, break down Cam Skattebo seeing zero touches after his fourth fumble, and dig into the NBA and sportsbooks agreeing to ban same-player under parlays, "first of" markets, and unders on low-minute players. Plus a bettor who says he got stiffed on a wager and a pick seller's bonus bet mix-up. Live with Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 1:44 - Grandissimo Entry Misses Deadline 18:55 - Survivor Carnage and Rams Fraud Watch 32:18 - Skattebo Gets Zero Touches 41:17 - Bettor Says He Got Stiffed on a Wager 1:00:04 - NBA Bans Same-Player Under Parlays and "First Of" Bets 1:10:26 - Pick Seller and the Bonus Bet Mix-Up 1:17:01 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CircleBack #NFLSurvivor #Grandissimo #SurvivorPool #NFL #LARams #CamSkattebo #NBA #NBABetting #PlayerProps #SportsBetting #SportsBettingNews Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How does a professional NBA bettor get ready for opening week? Pips NBA breaks down how he gathers information from the 30 teams in 30 days series and preseason film, turns it into minutes and rotation projections, and focuses on the teams that changed the most, where he thinks sportsbooks are most likely to be wrong early in the season. He also explains how matchups, defensive schemes and coverage types help him find mispriced player props, walks through correlated same game parlay reads, and covers how AI cuts his research time. Plus, how he reacts when a line moves against him, why he thinks top-down betting is drying up and pushing people toward originating, and answers to your mailbag questions on a long shot future, balancing life with the NBA grind, and how he reads questionable tags. Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Off Script with Pips NBA, a professional NBA bettor from Croatia and former co-host of The Hammer's NBA channel. They also get into what grinds their gears this week and close with their +EV Moves Of The Week. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📺 dlee4three's 30 Teams in 30 Days: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvCmCplxXUcXuDh6pJSxMzA 🎙️ Calvin and Hobo interview: https://youtu.be/x50poL3Uv-A 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Pips NBA - https://x.com/PipsNBA OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Work In Progress Check 12:58 - When Lines Move Against You 16:31 - The Future of Top-Down Betting 23:25 - Mailbag: Answering Your Questions 33:41 - What Grinds My Gears 40:00 - +EV Moves Of The Week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #NBA #NBABetting #SportsBetting #NBAProps #OffScript Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Beating the closing line is the best long-run sign you're betting well, but a lot of what gets called CLV isn't, and even great numbers lose all the time. I used years of NFL and college football line data to show what CLV actually measures, whether the market really gets sharper as kickoff gets closer, and whether you should fade or follow big line moves. Line data: Betstamp (Rob is a co-owner). NFL scores and historical closing lines: nflverse. 🟠 Track your bets and your CLV with Juice Reel, our network's bet tracking partner: [Juice Reel link] 🔴 Why Betting Without Watching The Market Is A Mistake: https://youtu.be/ZhNnPtayBoM 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The CLV Trophy 1:30 - PART 1: What Closing Line Value Actually Is 2:30 - Mistake 1: The Number Without the Price 3:15 - Mistake 2: Not Enough to Matter 4:25 - Why Raw Points Don't Work 5:19 - How Much You Beat It By (76,742 Bets) 7:37 - Why Good Bets Still Lose 9:22 - Sponsored by ProphetX 10:09 - PART 2: Is the Market Still Sharp? 12:29 - The Line Gets Sharper Through the Week 15:36 - PART 3: Fade or Follow the Big Moves? 19:21 - 261 Ways to Cut It 20:51 - The Moves Were Right 22:49 - What to Actually Do Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #ClosingLineValue #CLV #SportsBetting #NFL #CollegeFootball #BettingEducation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Everyone says AI can help you win at sports betting, but there's a right way and a wrong way to use it. We cover why more context beats a better prompt, why you should always check the steps behind an answer, and how to test a betting idea before you risk anything. Plus, the NFL's latest push on prediction markets at the Supreme Court, viewer questions from our most-watched AI video, and this week's plus EV moves. Isaac Rose-Berman, a sharp sports bettor and responsible gaming advocate, joins Jacob Gramegna on Off Script to share how he's using AI to enhance his betting and trading. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Work In Progress Check 14:02 - Breaking News: NFL Asks Supreme Court To Review Prediction Market Case 21:33 - Mailbag: Your AI Questions 29:29 - What Grinds My Gears 36:35 - +EV Moves Of The Week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #AI #PredictionMarkets #SportsTrading #AIBetting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sharp bettor Thon Misser breaks down the MLB same game parlay angle that kickstarted his betting career: a pricing bug that turned round number totals into a free half run. He explains how adding any second leg to an over 6 moved the price to over 6.5, why he paired it with an under on triples from hitters who almost never get one, how it played out until a couple of unlucky days and a burned account, and what he would do differently today. This is Legendary Loopholes on Circles Off, the series where sharp bettors share the unique edges from their past so you can apply the same thinking to your own betting. Jacob Gramegna sits down with Thon at BetBash to talk about why this kind of angle is out there for anyone willing to click around, and what every bettor can learn from it. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Thon Misser - https://x.com/ThonMisser OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #MLB #SGP #SameGameParlay #BettingEdge Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Victor Wembanyama put his foot down this week, declaring he will never endorse a prediction market or sportsbook. That bold stance opens up a massive conversation about where the line should be drawn when athletes take those exact deals. From there, we jump into a wild NFL Week 4, unpacking the Patriots shocking the Bills and what Lamar Jackson's ankle injury means moving forward. We also react to that viral post raising alarms over high school students and gambling, before tackling a classic debate: is winning a survivor contest actually skill, or is it pure luck? Plus, Matt Kalish quietly deletes months of prediction market posts after relentless heat, and Sydney Sweeney makes waves by securing an equity deal with a prediction market platform. Join Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg live as they dig into the biggest stories in sports betting and prediction markets this week. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 2:37 - NFL Week 4 28:28 - Joey Knish on Survivor Contest Winners 43:07 - Matt Kalish Deletes His Prediction Market Posts 51:41 - Wembanyama Rejects Betting Endorsements 1:03:18 - Viral Post on High School Gambling 1:11:07 - Sydney Sweeney's Equity Deal 1:18:41 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #CircleBack #CirclesOff #NFL #Wembanyama Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Teams playing on Thursday after a Sunday overtime game are 7-29 against the spread since 2000. I’m not a trends guy, so here’s exactly how I work through a stat like this, step by step: checking how it’s counted, finding the right comparison, looking past the win-loss record, testing the explanation, and asking whether the market’s already on it. This one held up better than most. Here’s why you still shouldn’t bet it blindly, and I want your theory on why it happens. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Trend 1:10 - Why Most Trends Are Noise 2:06 - Is There A Real Reason? 3:08 - Rebuild It Yourself 4:47 - Find The Right Comparison 7:09 - Look Past The Win/Loss Record 10:26 - Test The Explanation 12:54 - How Many Other Trends Are There? 14:40 - Is The Market Already On It? 17:09 - Sponsored by ProphetX 18:35 - What I Think About This One 19:26 - What To Do Next Time Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Trading sports event contracts involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. You should consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your financial circumstances. ProphetX is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Full risk disclosure available at prophetx.co/risk. #NFL #ThursdayNightFootball #SportsBetting #BettingTrends #AgainstTheSpread Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NFL Week 3 delivered chaos, the Steelers upset the 2-0 Bengals in Pittsburgh, Josh Allen and the Bills survived five turnovers to beat the Chargers, and Drake Maye's turnover problems continued in New England. Over in golf, Team USA pulled off a historic comeback at the Presidents Cup, erasing a four-point deficit to win 17-13 at Medinah for their 11th straight title. Plus reaction to the MLB regular season wrapping up and the postseason field taking shape. On the industry side, a federal appeals court dealt a major blow to prediction markets, ruling that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate sports-event contracts under state gambling law, a decision that deepens a growing circuit split likely headed for the Supreme Court. A new investigation also revealed how one major sportsbook's VIP program rewarded a reporter posing as a problem gambler, inviting him into their VIP program within 24 hours of a night spent chasing losses. And in Brazil, the president signed a measure banning sports betting deposits and advertising days before the country's election, prompting backlash from top football clubs who rely on betting sponsorships. Plus, a look at using betting partners to get comfortable with bigger bet sizes, and the Chopping Block. Jacob is joined by Rob, Geoff, and Isaac Rose-Berman, in studio this week, to break it all down. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and Isaac Rose-Berman 2:26 - NFL Week 3 19:50 - Other Weekend Recap 30:31 - Prediction Markets Lose In Ohio 40:19 - Sportsbook VIP Exposé 50:39 - Reading Your Comments 1:05:19 - Using Betting Partners To Scale Up 1:10:47 - Brazil Bans Betting 1:22:51 - Who Actually Bought GRP's Survivor Entry? 1:33:24 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #CircleBack #CirclesOff #PredictionMarkets #NFLWeek3 #ResponsibleGaming #Ohio #Brazil #PresidentsCup Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Thon Misser joins Off Script to break down the NBA season simulator he's been rebuilding this offseason, how it prices different tiers of players, and what changes after a summer that saw the Raptors add Kawhi Leonard and the Sixers bring in LeBron James. From there the conversation moves into the latest push to bring margin trading to prediction markets and what that means for how those markets get used, from pricing futures to gauging elections. Plus a mailbag stacked with viewer questions, this week's Grinds My Gears rants, and the usual EV Moves of the Week to close things out. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Thon - https://x.com/ThonMisser OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Work In Progress Check 10:56 - Breaking News 20:14 - Mailbag: Your Questions 28:46 - What Grinds My Gears 34:57 - +EV Moves Of The Week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #NBA #NBABetting #SportsBetting #CirclesOff #OffScript #KawhiLeonard #LeBronJames #PredictionMarkets Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Can sharps actually beat a prediction market maker? Chris "Flup" Dierkes breaks down what market makers really do, why new exchanges need in-house liquidity, how auto-movers and traders manage directional risk when the flow hits one side, and what the CFTC's proposed bona fide market making rules could mean for the role. He also takes on the biggest misconceptions, including whether market makers can see who they're trading against. Recorded at BetBash, Jacob Gramegna sits down with Chris Dierkes, Pro Sports Bettor and Trader, for a look at the other side of the counter on prediction markets, and why Flup thinks rebate and volume incentive deals should be posted publicly. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Chris - https://x.com/Flupnolide OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #MarketMaking #CirclesOff #BetBash Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NFL Week 2 sports betting reaction gets broken down live on Circle Back, alongside a New York Times report alleging a sportsbook used an AI model to score customers by expected losses and aim bonuses and free bets at them, which the sportsbook disputes. Is +EV overrated? We debate expected value betting and whether the hype matches the results. We also react to Vanderbilt vs NC State and what's being called the biggest UFC upset ever, then run through Chopping Block quick hits including the Off Script debut and a comedy tier list. Jacob Gramegna hosts today's Circle Back and is joined by Rob Pizzola, CEO of The Hammer and pro sports bettor, and Jason Cooper, host of The Hammer Daily, to break it all down. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/TakesByJ OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Jason Cooper 1:19 - NFL Week 2 28:46 - Other Weekend Recap 40:28 - Sportsbooks Using AI To Target Losers? 50:26 - NFL Bans Prediction Markets 55:26 - "Just Bet -124s That Are -800 Everywhere Else" 1:30:40 - Is +EV Overrated? 1:17:51 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #CircleBack #CirclesOff #NFLWeek2 #UFC #PlusEV Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A College Football Playoff simulator reveals the real tension in sports betting: when do you trust an algorithm's clean number, and when does a sharp bettor's read on one isolated spot beat the model? Shipper joins Jacob Gramegna for the very first episode of Off Script to break down algorithmic decision-making versus human intuition using live betting, prediction markets, and expected value examples. They then move into two major current events: the proposed repeal of the 90% gambling loss deduction cap, and the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and MLS's new push for permanent bans on bettors who threaten athletes and their families. Plus viewer questions on odds screens, AI's impact on sharp bettors, and this week's plus EV move of the week. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Shipper - https://x.com/ShipTheJustice OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Work In Progress Check 11:34 - 90% Loss Cap Repeal 16:38 - Major Sports Leagues Crack Down On Harassment 23:11 - Mailbag: Answering Your Questions 30:44 - What Grinds My Gears 35:56 - +EV Moves Of The Week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #OffScript #CirclesOff #CollegeFootball #CFPPlayoff #ExpectedValue #SportsBettingPodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The CFTC has proposed new rules that could reshape how market making works across prediction market platforms, from fee treatment for in-house market makers to limits on the positions they're allowed to take. The proposal touches everything from single-market liquidity to how combos and RFQs get priced, and depending on how it's implemented, it could change who's able to compete as a market maker at all. Pro sports bettor and trader Porter of BA Analytics joins Circles Off to break down what the proposal actually changes, why the fee and positioning rules matter more than they might look on paper, and what tighter competition among market makers could mean for pricing and liquidity on these markets going forward. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CFTC #PredictionMarkets #MarketMaking #SportsBetting #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #BettingIndustry #SportsBettingNews #BettingRegulation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The NFL, under Commissioner Roger Goodell, has taken a major step in its evolving relationship with prediction markets, and the crew breaks down what it means for sports betting going forward. Week 1 of the NFL season brought plenty of storylines, including a reality check for the Los Angeles Rams following their 27-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and a betting-adjacent ad campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney has sparked its own conversation about how brands are approaching this space. Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg, part of the Circles Off lineup from The Hammer Betting Network. Circle Back airs weekly, breaking down the biggest stories in sports betting, prediction markets, and the NFL with sharp analysis and no shortage of debate. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 1:32 - NFL Week 1 Recap 7:35 - Survivor Chaos, Chargers lose 22:27 - LA Rams Reality Check 35:41 - U.S. Open + Texas Comeback vs. Ohio State 45:55 - Is The NFL Admitting Defeat To Prediction Markets? 52:27 - Sydney Sweeney's Prediction Market Ad Campaign 1:06:59 - Odds Logic's Poorly Timed Price Increase 1:16:18 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #NFL #PredictionMarkets #CircleBack #NFLWeek1 #LARams #49ers #RogerGoodell #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The LeBron James next-team market became the second-largest market prediction platforms have ever seen, trailing only the World Cup, with over $240 million traded. Peanut, aka Peanut Bettor on Twitter, joins Circles Off to break down how a market this size actually moves — why $500,000 walls formed around teams like Miami and Minnesota, and how a trader decides whether to jump a wall or wait it out. The conversation gets into steam versus noise — how a single tweet or Sportscenter hit could send a team surging with zero new information behind it — and why LeBron's notoriously tight-lipped camp made this market especially hard to read. Peanut closes with the biggest lesson from trading it: how the market's long, drawn-out timeline changed the entire approach compared to a decision expected to drop quickly. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/46xNSOo LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Peanut - https://x.com/Peanut_Bettor OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #LeBronJames #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #NBA #LeBronNextTeam #BettingMarkets #TradingStrategy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Do quants ignore motivation? I tested the most famous motivation angles in football, revenge games and blowout bounce backs, against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines. One of them was legitimately profitable. Then the market found it. This is the full lifecycle of a betting edge, tested live against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF. Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Misconception 1:07 - I Am One of the Spreadsheet Guys 2:45 - Millions of Angles, We Test One 5:07 - Quantify Everything 5:58 - The Market Knew Something I Didn't 8:39 - Motivation in Golf 10:00 - Defining Revenge (For Real) 11:31 - 3,000 Revenge Games 13:18 - The Bounce Back 15:32 - Does It Still Work? 16:55 - Watching an Angle Die 19:55 - The Small Sample Trap 21:08 - The Million Dollar Catch 23:24 - Sponsored by ProphetX 24:42 - Refusing to Guess 25:21 - What Should We Test Next? Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #NFLBetting #SharpBetting #BettingStrategy #NFLAnalytics #ClosingLineValue #BettingEdge #NFLDataAnalysis #ProphetX #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sharp bettor and responsible gaming advocate Isaac Rose-Berman joins Circles Off at BetBash to break down a tennis edge hiding in plain sight. Because of the way tennis scoring works, a player who falls behind by two breaks in a set will often stop competing entirely to conserve energy for the next one, but sportsbooks don't always adjust their in-match pricing to reflect it. Isaac walks through how to spot the trigger, which players are most likely to give up a set, and how the same logic applies well beyond tennis, including a similar spot to watch for in baseball. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #TennisBetting #LiveBetting #BettingEdge #CirclesOff #TheHammer #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, China joins Circles Off to break down one of the most unique player prop edges of the last decade. Starting around 2016, China built a reputation moving college football player prop lines at a major sportsbook, sometimes 60 to 80 props a week. When a second sportsbook entered the market and began scraping those openers days later, it created a two season window where China could rebet his own moved lines at their original stale price, all while getting labeled a "fish" and handed higher limits instead of getting cut off. It's a look back at how legalization, lazy odds-making, and old school leg work created a window that most people never even noticed. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow China - https://x.com/chinamaniac OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #CollegeFootball #LegendaryLoopholes #PlayerProps #BettingEdge #CirclesOff #TheHammer #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NFL weekend chaos, Week Zero heartbreak, and plenty of drama. Aaron Donald is back — so what does that mean for the Rams and their futures? Plus, Jacobs lands on the commissioners list, a fantasy league debacle unfolds, and we investigate the very real possibility that the “49ers guy” is completely fake. We break down the brutal Hawaii beat from Week Zero, roast Knish for celebrating way too early, dive into the Ninth Circuit’s Kalshi ruling, and ask why “pros don’t want to share.” Plus: Storm Buonatony on sports media salaries, the latest GRP saga, and another edition of the Chopping Block. Drop your questions in the chat! Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow GStack- https://x.com/GeorgeTsilfidis 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Intro To Circle Back5:03 - Aaron Donald Returns to the NFL19:39 - Josh Jacobs' place on the commissioner's list21:31 - NFL Fantasy League Blow-up38:27 - Reactions to the Fake NFL player49:42 - CFB Week 0 Bad Beat 56:11 - Court Ruling w/ Prediction Markets01:02:55 - Pros aren't sharing their picks01:16:02 - Starting a career in sports01:31:15 - GRP gone wild Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week on Circle Back, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Shipper to break down three stories shaking up the prediction markets and sports betting world. The crew dives into a New York Times report that Donald Trump Jr. privately urged a room of Republican state attorneys general to back off regulating prediction markets, arguing that state pushback was being driven by gambling companies protecting their own turf rather than genuine consumer concerns. The panel unpacks what this closed-door pitch means for the ongoing battle between state and federal oversight of the industry, and why prediction markets have become such a political flashpoint heading into the fall. From there, the conversation shifts to a major shift in how prediction markets present their pricing, as platforms move away from familiar American-odds formatting toward straight percentages, a change that's got bettors adjusting their mental math and wondering if more platforms will follow. The show wraps with a look at sharp originators pulling their models and ratings out of public view, as some of the most respected names in the space decide their edge is too valuable to keep sharing for free, and what that shift could mean for bettors who've relied on that public data for years. This episode also marks the final edition of Circle Back Thursday. After more than a year on the air, this is the last time the show will run in this Thursday slot, though Circle Back Monday continues as normal and new content is on the way to fill the Friday spot. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Shipper - https://x.com/ShipTheJustice 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The FINAL edition of Circle Back Thursday 1:43 - Originators are going private on prediction markets 11:04 - Prediction Odds begin to remove American Odds 27:28 - Donald Trump Jr. tells Republican state attorneys general to “back off” 36:21 - RAS early releases 42:15 - Worst settlement rules for fights? 50:11 - Taylor Mathis strikes again 53:54 - Chopping Block: A trip down memory lane 1:09:38 - Thank you for watching Circle Back Thursday! Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CirclesOff #TheHammer #SharpBetting #TrumpJr #BettingNews #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is presented by ProphetX. Our guest is ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen — we address the relationship directly at the top of the episode. Jake Benzaquen co-founded ProphetX eight years ago, long before "prediction market" was a phrase anyone outside finance used. In June, ProphetX became the first sports-native platform to win CFTC approval as a regulated exchange — and this conversation covers everything that came with it: the sweepstakes years, the $35 million raise, what's shipping on the product side this football season, and the affiliated market making debate that's dividing the entire industry. Rob also presses Jake on the questions that don't have easy answers — the investor overlap on ProphetX's own platform, the 18-vs-21 age gap between prediction markets and sportsbooks, and what happens if the Supreme Court rules against CFTC jurisdiction entirely. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jake - https://x.com/jakebenzaq OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Opener + Disclosure 1:16 - Who is Jake Benzaquen? 5:08 - The sweepstakes chapter 9:07 - Getting CFTC approval and launching nationwide 19:45 - ProphetX vs the giants - the honest ecosystem conversation 26:09 - The product: payments, RFQ, cash out, the 2.0 app 42:30 - Affiliated market making: the industry's biggest conflict 52:12 - The B2B play 1:02:02 - State vs federal: the regulatory war 1:16:11 - The uncomfortable questions 1:29:43 - The next five years 1:31:33 - +EV / -EV moves, advice to former self 1:38:07 - Outro Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #ProphetX #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CFTC #CirclesOff #TheHammer #SportsTrading #BettingExchange #AffiliatedMarketMaking #NFLBetting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Browns recap covering Deshaun Watson's postgame comments after getting booed plus the Sanders update, and Dae'Quan Wright's stunning exit from the NFL back to LSU; Ashton Jeanty's injury scare and what it means for fantasy owners; Scottie Scheffler playing through hand, foot & mouth disease at the BMW Championship and whether golf needs injury reporting; Establish The Run shutting down their pick-selling service; a separate wild stat showing MLB favorites went 15-0 in a day; the Raheem Palmer/Pam Moldanado interaction; plus Chopping Block. Drop your questions in the chat! Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: / discord ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - / circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - / circlesoffhq FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 / @thehammerhq 🏈 / @fwdprogresshq 📚 / @hitthebookshq SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Intro To Circle Back01:30 – Browns Recap: Watson's Postgame Comments & Sanders Update15:50 – Dae'Quan Wright Leaves NFL for LSU23:37 – Ashton Jeanty Injury Update32:47 – Scottie Scheffler's Hand, Foot & Mouth Diagnosis33:30 – Does Golf Need Injury Reporting?48:20 – Establish The Run Shuts Down Pick Service1:04:47 – MLB Favorites Go 15-01:11:11 – Raheem Palmer / Pam Moldanado Interaction1:24:20 - BIG CHANGES HAPPENING!1:29:02 – Chopping Block1:58:04 – Outro / Q&A Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #Browns #DeshaunWatson #ShedeurSanders #ClevelandBrowns #NFL #NCAAFootball #AshtonJeanty #FantasyFootball #Raiders #ScottieScheffler #BMWChampionship #PGATour #EstablishTheRun #SportsBetting #ChoppingBlock #NFLNews Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Prediction markets are having a moment of reckoning. Sharp bettors are starting to call out PM platforms for the same behavior that made traditional sportsbooks notorious: squeezing out the very winners who helped legitimize the space in the first place. From new maker fees quietly eating into sharp profits to a "pro gambler arc" meme capturing the entire cycle of boom, backlash, and burnout, this week's Circle Back digs into whether prediction markets are already repeating the mistakes of the sportsbooks they were supposed to replace. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined live by Joey Knish, Thon Misser, and Peanut to break down the fee structures, the hypocrisy accusations flying between market makers and sharp takers, and what it all means for anyone trying to get a long-term edge in this new market. Presented by ProphetX. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/JoeyKnish22 🔵 Follow Peanut - https://x.com/Peanut_Bettor 🔵 Follow Thon - https://x.com/ThonMisser OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Peanut, & Joey Knish 1:31 - Was Kalish Right All Along? 9:56 - Market Makers vs. Sharp Takers 17:38 - The Pro Gambler Arc 23:41 - +EV Move Of The Week 31:19 - NFL Adopting The March Madness Schedule 36:50 - The Wrong One To Receive An Affiliate Badge 44:16 - Announcement 46:57 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CircleBack #ProphetX #SharpBettors #SportsBettingPodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A post about an MIT professor's coin flip (win $125, lose $100) went viral claiming that refusing the bet was the smart move. The psychology is real. The advice is backwards. This is the difference between risk aversion as wisdom and risk aversion as a leak... and the one number from the story that proves it. In this video, Rob breaks down why a single coin flip with a roughly 55% implied win probability in your favor still gets rejected by most people, why that instinct is completely rational at life changing stakes and completely irrational at dinner money stakes, and why the $43 students were willing to pay to walk away from the bet is the most damning detail in the entire story. Then Rob shows the fix: what happens to that exact same flip once you take it 100 times, then 1,000 times, and why repetition (not bravery) is the actual engine behind every profitable sports bettor, market maker, and insurance company that has ever existed. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF. Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Viral Flip 1:07 - The Full Story (and the $43) 2:10 - The Part That's Actually True 3:17 - Where It All Falls Apart 4:15 - Paying a Tax on Your Own Fear 5:11 - One Flip vs One Hundred 6:44 - The Dividing Line 8:39 - Sponsored by ProphetX 9:46 - Which Situation Are You In? 10:53 - Circle Back, Mondays 1PM EST Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammer #ExpectedValue #RiskAversion #BehavioralEconomics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NFL preseason line movement is under the microscope after a wild stretch of results: teams that have moved 1.5+ points or more on the spread this season are 0-8, and 23-51 since 2024, according to Big Al McMordie's numbers. That trend has reignited a fierce debate about whether closing line value still holds up as a betting principle, with some pointing to small sample sizes and starters entering games as the real driver behind the movement. Also on deck: reactions to Pat McAfee's surprise album release, plus the fallout from Circa CEO Derek Stevens' pointed comments questioning the legitimacy and tax structure of peer-to-peer prediction markets. Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 1:18 - NFL Preseason CLV debate 16:35 - Pat McAfee dropped an album 35:19 - Breaking News on Kawhi Leonard 42:12 - Derek Stevens sounds off on prediction markets 52:29 - Gen Z is moving from stocks to sports betting 1:03:11 - CFTC probe into "mention markets" 1:11:17 - Hypotheticals 1:30:16 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CLV #NFLBetting #ClosingLineValue #SportsBetting #NFLPreseason #CircleBack #CirclesOff #ProphetX #PatMcAfee #DerekStevens #PredictionMarkets #TheHammer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Prediction markets and sportsbooks might look identical on the surface. Same lines, same moneylines, same spreads. But legally and structurally, they're nothing alike. In this conversation, Jacob sits down with Captain Jack Andrews to break down why prediction markets don't meet the legal definition of gambling the way sportsbooks do, walking through the "chance, consideration, and reward" test, the Wire Act's business-of-betting standard, and why the operator side, not the consumer side, is what actually matters. They also dig into the "Duck Test," the case that could eventually land in front of the Supreme Court, and why the outcome could determine whether prediction markets are regulated state by state or protected under federal preemption. If you've ever wondered whether prediction markets are just sportsbooks in disguise, this is the conversation that settles it. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Jack - https://x.com/capjack2000 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 00:00 – Prediction Markets Are Not Sportsbooks 01:18 – The 3 Components Of Gambling 04:38 – The Business Of Betting & The Duck Test 06:29 – ProphetX 07:29 – Same Bet, Different Mechanics 08:59 – The Real Goal: Getting to the Supreme Court 11:45 – The Sports Traders Union 13:02 – Fundamental Fairness Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #Sportsbooks #CFTC #SportsTradingUnion #BettingRegulation #CirclesOff #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rishi Bets has been posting on X since 2011 with over 35,000 posts and a following nowhere near what that volume would suggest, and it's exactly why the account works. He posts his bet sizes, his wins, and his losses in real time, no cherry-picking. Rob Pizzola sits down with Rishi for a full interview covering his case for prediction markets over traditional sportsbooks, the World Cup position that went horribly wrong and the choice to post the whole thing publicly, where the line should be on which markets can and can't exist, and a run of hot takes on the sports betting community that don't pull punches. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Rishi - https://x.com/Rishibets OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Intro 1:13 - Who is Rishi? 11:24 - How he actually bets 29:37 - The case for prediction markets 58:13 - The Mbappé mistake 1:12:11 - First big loss 1:17:30 - On being stubborn 1:25:43 - Rapid round: things that trigger Rishi 1:34:00 - Sharp vs recreational, the bigger picture 1:40:07 - +EV and -EV moves of the week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #RishiBets #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #WorldCupBetting #SharpBettor #SportsBettingPodcast #BettingCommunity Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rob and Jacob were on the ground at Bet Bash 2026 (August 4-7), and they're bringing back the biggest storylines from the event, including the fallout from Steve Fezzik's touting ethics seminar. Geoff missed the trip, and shares his perspective from watching it all unfold from home. The crew also dives into the latest out of the WNBA, from a player's claims of white privilege in the league to Enes Freedom and Royce White declaring for the WNBA. Plus, sportsbooks are taking an increasingly clear stance against prediction markets, and the guys break down whether it's coming from a place of genuine concern or fear of the competition. Join host Jacob Gramegna alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg on this episode of Circle Back, presented by ProphetX. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 3:49 - BetBash Reviews & Thoughts 13:35 - BetBash Dunk Tank 24:55 - The Ethics Of Touting Seminar 35:51 - Billy Walters on PMs 44:38 - BetBash Representation 55:26 - WNBA State of Affairs 1:23:09 - Sportsbooks Challenge The Idea Of Prediction Markets 1:29:31 - Get Better, Bet Fewer Games? 1:37:40 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #BetBash2026 #CircleBack #SportsBetting #WNBA #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #SportsBettingPodcast #GamblingTwitter #TheHammer #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You project a running back for 80 rushing yards. The line is 72.5. Nearly eight yards clear — an easy over, right? By the end of this video, that same exact setup might have no bet at all. Rob Pizzola walks through the full process of turning a raw projection into an actual price — not a vibe, not a gut call, a real number you can trust. Starting from a simple two-minute version anyone can use, then building layer by layer into how the market actually prices probability, why your model's mean and the market's median aren't the same thing, and why that gap is the single most common way a good projection turns into a bad bet. By the end, you'll be able to price any prop, and every alternate line on the board, from nothing but a projection and a little bit of math. This is Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. ⬇️ Download the Excel file: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j2dlXlL1fgN4rLoI1Q_mTEFpwpnXvr0f/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=110512856455811077194&rtpof=true&sd=true INSTRUCTIONS: Once the file is open, in the top left go to File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔴 Don't Use AI For Sports Betting Until You Watch This: https://youtu.be/ykICNBiFubg 🔴 Why Betting Without Watching The Market Is A Mistake: https://youtu.be/ZhNnPtayBoM 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Question Everyone Gets Wrong 1:42 - A Projection Is Not A Probability 3:30 - LAYER 1: The Two (Eight*) Minute Version 11:22 - LAYER 2: What The Market Actually Thinks 14:52 - Sponsored by ProphetX 16:41 - LAYER 2: The Player's Real Spread 19:15 - Volume vs Efficiency 23:20 - LAYER 3: The Thing That Flips Bets 29:10 - Which Props This Applies To 30:59 - Pricing Every Alternate Line 33:01 - The Honest Caveat Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PlayerProps #NFLProps #PropBetting #BettingEducation #SharpBetting #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #NFLBetting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The WNBA can't get out of its own way this week. The league's official account posted — then deleted — video of Paige Bueckers and Angel Reese casually discussing a $400 All-Star Weekend bet, a clear violation of the CBA's anti-wagering rules, and it's raising real questions about how a league office lets that get anywhere near publish. Meanwhile, Seattle Storm co-owner Celeste Keaton was fined and suspended for five home games after confronting two teenage fans holding signs supporting Sophie Cunningham, adding another layer to a franchise's messy week. Elsewhere in the gambling world, sports betting influencer Manny Cortez is back in the news as his lawsuit over a $500,000 Celtics championship bet moves toward a February trial — the sportsbook used his winning ticket to market itself on social media, then refused to pay him, citing his use of a third party to place the wager. And the fallout continues from Netflix's new prediction markets documentary, as the sports content platform prominently featured in the film's trailer keeps taking heat online for how it's chosen to talk about its own role in it. Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Joey Knish join Jacob Gramegna to break down all of it on this week's Circle Back. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/JoeyKnish22 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Isaac Rose-Berman, Porter & Joey Knish 1:17 - WNBA gambling drama 10:46 - Why does the WNBA keep doing it to themselves? 23:24 - NFL Win Totals 27:51 - Winible reacts to the Netflix documentary 34:51 - Another unjurt sportsbook stiff? 44:21 - Rufus Peabody vs. Matt Kalish 54:00 -Did they really fall off? 59:35 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #WNBA #SportsBetting #CircleBack #ProphetX #NBA #Celtics #PredictionMarkets #Netflix #GamblingTwitter #SportsBettingNews Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Isaac Rose-Berman was one of the featured sharp bettors in Netflix's new documentary, Instadocs: The Prediction Games — and he's here to break down everything that happened behind the scenes. In this conversation, Isaac details how he got connected to the production, what he was originally told the documentary would focus on, and how ten hours of filming got condensed into just a few minutes of screen time. He addresses the backlash to the Winnable meetup segment and whether those bettors were ever actually winning, breaks down a moment of what he calls "slightly deceptive editing" involving his own trading numbers, and gives his honest take on the framing of the "ideal counterparty" cut to a 19-year-old struggling bettor. Isaac also shares his thoughts on the overall tone of the documentary, why he felt it lacked a strong defense of prediction markets, what he wishes had made the final cut, and what he hopes viewers ultimately take away from watching it. Jacob Gramegna hosts this conversation on Circles Off, covering the World Cup trading scenes, the fee structure discussions that got cut, market maker vs. taker dynamics, and Isaac's honest assessment of whether this documentary is a fair introduction to prediction markets. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Introduction 0:47 - The Filming Experience 3:06 - The Early Sentiment 6:32 - The Final Product 11:59 - What Was Missing From The Final Product? 16:41 - The Trailer Backlash 20:12 - Reactions To The Full Release 27:35 - Dissecting Specific Moments 41:18 - The Product Overall 46:01 - What's Next? Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #NetflixDocumentary #SportsBetting #TradingMarkets #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Netflix just dropped a documentary on the prediction markets boom, and the trailer alone sparked backlash from sharp bettors and skeptics before the film even released. We break down the doc, the reaction, and what it means for the industry. Plus, LeBron James is officially a Philadelphia 76er, and we dig into the betting angle: how the Sixers' title odds shifted, the sheer volume of money traded on his next-team market, and what it says about his legacy. We also cover an Iowa bettor suing a major sportsbook for $14 million after they voided his bets on a pricing error he exploited, a fascinating look at house rules, loopholes, and where the line is drawn. Join host Jacob Gramegna alongside Rob Pizzola and Jason Cooper as they break down all the latest storylines from the world of sports betting. Circle Back is part of the Circles Off network, brought to you by The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/TakesByJ OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Jason Cooper 1:26 - LeBron James signs with the Philadelphia 76ers 22:44 - Jackson Koivun wins in his third professional start 30:07 - More weekend recap in sports 41:10 - Netflix's Prediction Market Documentary 57:16 - Crazy score correction in this MLB game 1:04:37 - Sportsbooks refusing to pay "winnings" 1:16:05 - Reading your comments 1:20:09 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CircleBack #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #LeBronJames #Sixers76ers #NetflixDocumentary Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week on Circle Back, the crew dives into the Miami Heat's YouTube slip-up, a scheduled livestream titled "LeBron James Introductory Press Conference" for July 27th that got posted, then quickly deleted. The team says it was a mistake made while preparing for a possible signing, but that hasn't stopped the theories. Was this a genuine accident, or a deliberate leak designed to move the needle on prediction markets before anything is even official? From there, the conversation shifts to prediction markets more broadly, after a platform CEO publicly admitted a majority of users lose money. Is that refreshing honesty, or a red flag? We compare it to loss rates at traditional sportsbooks, casinos, and horse tracks to find out if the number is really as bad as it sounds. Then we dig into a new report showing nearly half of all sports event contract volume in the country comes from just two states without legal sports betting, California and Texas, and debate whether that's really a "gold rush" or something else entirely. Hosted live by Jacob Gramegna, joined by Isaac Rose-Berman, Joey Knish, and Mike. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Mike - https://x.com/Peanut_Bettor 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/JoeyKnish22 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Isaac Rose-Berman, Mike & Joey Knish 1:26 - LeBron Free Agency Saga 16:58 - Only 70% lose here? 27:50 - Pushing an agenda? 44:37 - ESPN layoffs 53:27 - Reading your comments 58:26 - Valid move for the golf course? 1:05:29 - Back to reality post World Cup Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CircleBack #CirclesOff #TheHammer #LeBronJames #NBAFreeAgency #NBA #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #ProphetX #California #Texas #NBASchedule Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rob Pizzola sits down solo for a candid state-of-the-channel monologue, no guest, no educational breakdown, just an honest look at where Circles Off is and how it got here. Rob talks through the origins of the channel with Johnny from Betstamp, the plateau that led to the pivot into Circle Back, and the business reality behind The Hammer that most viewers never see, including years of building the company without taking a salary. He also gets into what actually drives him to keep making educational content, why bad betting advice in the space gets under his skin, and why he still does this even though he doesn't have to. This one runs long and stays unpolished on purpose. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔴 State of the Sports Betting Space: https://youtu.be/G9nr_8YNf3Q?si=Xu7AyuWJAHSXXzRj 🔴 This Sports Betting Blog Called Out EVERYONE (Including Us): https://youtu.be/33j9gOpjuP4?si=WqZ4zhcuWx2D0aNZ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Chris - https://x.com/flupnolide OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - An Honest One 0:57 - On Feedback (and 25k) 2:36 - How This Channel Started 4:30 - Why It Changed 6:47 - The Business Nobody Sees 9:11 - Sponsored by ProphetX 10:27 - What Actually Drives Me 13:04 - The Stuff That Really Gets Me 14:48 - Why I Still Do This 16:00 - The Part I Hate 16:59 - Where My Head Is At Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #RobPizzola #CirclesOff #TheHammer #SportsBetting #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Spain won the World Cup final 1-0 over Argentina in extra time, with Ferran Torres scoring the winner after Argentina played the entire match down a man following a red card and failed to register a shot until the 117th minute. The match was overshadowed by a chaotic post-game and halftime spectacle, including Donald Trump's involvement in the festivities. In golf, Ryan Fox won the Open Championship, but the bigger story was the cheating controversy surrounding Bryson DeChambeau, whose penalty situation dominated golf media coverage. And in sports betting media, Twitter has banned over 40 scam handicapper accounts in a major crackdown, officially barring paid gambling promotions and cracking down on inauthentic engagement tactics used by capper networks. Join host Jacob Gramegna alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg on this episode of Circle Back, the show breaking down the biggest stories, drama, and storylines in the sports betting world. Circle Back is part of Circles Off and The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 2:13 - World Cup Final Reaction: Spain defeats Argentina 1-0 24:40 - Open Championship; Ryan Fox wins the 154th British Open 35:38 - Bryson DeChambeau cheating scandal 54:51 - Fanatics Fest 1:02:33 - Jeff Nadu's birthday bash did not go to plan 1:17:31 - Twitter cracks down on "scam" handicappers 1:25:35 - Cardinals personnel executive suspended by NFL 1:34:12 - Reading your comments 1:45:20 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #WorldCup #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #OpenChampionship #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Argentina stunned England with a late 2-1 comeback to set up a World Cup final showdown with Spain, and the reaction is pouring in. A viral take from China (@Chinamaniac) claiming connections matter more than skill or modeling ability in sports betting has sharp bettors pushing back, with many pointing to prediction markets as an accessible alternative. And a wild story is breaking about a White House staffer who's reportedly made over $100,000 betting on prediction markets tied to the president's own speeches, using inside knowledge of what was coming before it was said. Jacob Gramegna hosts Circle Back, the live show breaking down the biggest news, drama, and hot topics from Gambling Twitter, joined this week by Thon Misser, Joey Knish, and Isaac Rose-Berman. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/joeyknish22 🔵 Follow Thon - https://x.com/ThonMisser 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Isaac Rose-Berman, Thon Misser & Joey Knish 3:02 - The World Cup Final is set 19:38 - Home Run Derby 27:38 - Skill vs. Connections 35:02 - Betting on flight delays 39:21 - Trump's teleprompter operator allegedly made $100k+ 42:58 - Prediction markets through history 54:23 - Biggest edge of the year? Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #WorldCupFinal #ArgentinaVsSpain #PredictionMarkets #GamblingTwitter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rob Pizzola reacts live to Chris "Flup" Dierkes' viral Substack post detailing a multi-million dollar downswing — and what it actually takes to trust your process through it. Flup, one of the sharpest bettors in the game and a Circle Back regular, wrote candidly about adverse selection, the difference between ego and confidence, spotting real edge vs. variance, closing line value, tilt, and why "just a skill issue" isn't the full story on getting limited. Rob goes section by section, agreeing in some spots, pushing back hard in others — especially on the debate over grinding through a downswing vs. stepping away, and whether getting limited really is just a skill issue. If you've ever doubted your process after a rough stretch, this one's for you. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📖 Read Chris' article for yourself: https://substack.com/home/post/p-200069336 🔴 This Sports Betting Blog Called Out EVERYONE (Including Us): https://youtu.be/33j9gOpjuP4 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Chris - https://x.com/flupnolide OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #CirclesOff #ClosingLineValue #BettingEducation #ProfessionalBettor #AdverseSelection #SportsBettingTips #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Conor McGregor's UFC return lasted just over a minute before a devastating knee injury ended his comeback against Max Holloway — and now the conspiracy theories are flying. Did McGregor know he was hurt before he ever stepped in the cage? The crew breaks down what it means for his career, the UFC's future plans, and how the betting markets reacted to one of the wildest outcomes in recent memory. Plus, Argentina's win over Switzerland in the World Cup quarterfinals is still generating controversy after a contentious VAR review led to a second yellow card and an early red for Breel Embolo. And finally, the crew dives into a brewing sportsbook scandal involving MLB star Bryce Harper, who unknowingly became part of a VIP program controversy after a bettor with a documented gambling addiction lost nearly $2 million — raising serious questions about how sportsbooks treat their highest-value, most vulnerable customers. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Jason - https://x.com/TakesByJ OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Jason Cooper 2:29 - UFC 329 Fallout: McGregor loses in 69 seconds 22:23 - Argentina with the VAR assist against Switzerland? 31:32- England move past Norway despite spy cam controversy 44:51 - More weekend coverage 50:25 - Bryce Harper caught in sportsbook VIP scandal 1:07:47 - Reading your comments 1:17:50 - Chopping block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #UFC329 #ConorMcGregor #MaxHolloway #WorldCup #FIFAWorldCup #BryceHarper #CircleBack #TheHammerBettingNetwork #GamblingTwitter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Circle Back is back with another live episode, breaking down the biggest stories and chaos from Gambling Twitter this week. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Joey Knish as the crew dives into the wild finish to the World Cup: Team USA's elimination at the hands of Belgium amid controversy over President Trump's call to FIFA president Gianni Infantino, Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal's exit from the tournament and the prediction market frenzy over whether he shed a tear, Conor McGregor's massive return to the Octagon against Max Holloway at UFC 329, and the growing allegations that prominent sports betting figure Mikki Mase may be broke after asking fans to use their betting accounts on his behalf. Tune in live for hot takes, sharp analysis, and unfiltered reactions to everything moving the needle in sports betting and gambling media this week. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/joeyknish22 🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Isaac Rose-Berman, Porter & Joey Knish 1:38 - The USMNT were embarrassed by Belgium after FIFA's circus 11:41 - Did Cristionao Ronaldo cry after Portugal's loss? Bettors want to know 20:08 - Connor McGregor vs. Max Holloway preview + odds 30:01 - Bettors allege that Mikki Mase has gone broke 36:46 - Big Brother 28 42:50 - Reading Your Comments 53:46 - The new way to get accounts? Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #GamblingTwitter #SportsBetting #CircleBack #WorldCup2026 #ConorMcGregor #UFC329 #CristianoRonaldo #MikkiMase #FIFAWorldCup #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Most people are using AI as a betting oracle, and it's costing them money. Rob Pizzola breaks down the right way to actually use AI for sports betting — not by asking it who wins tonight's games, but by treating it as a research assistant, a coder, and a data scientist that does the labor while you bring the judgment. Rob walks through a real example from the World Cup, where he built an expected goals model with AI, ran a Poisson distribution across dozens of markets, and found a spot where his numbers diverged from the market by 4% — including exactly how that bet turned out and why the result doesn't matter as much as the process. If you've ever asked ChatGPT or Claude for picks, this video will change how you think about AI in betting for good. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔴 Why Betting Without Watching The Market Is A Mistake : https://youtu.be/ZhNnPtayBoM 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Dumbest Way to Use AI in Betting 0:48 - The Two Camps 1:59 - Quick Context 2:55 - What AI is Actually Good For 4:24 - Example 1: Coding & Datasets 7:12 - Example 2: Automation & Time 9:22 - Sponsored by ProphetX 10:47 - The World Cup Bet 14:15 - Is This Model Even Good Enough? 16:54 - What NOT to Do 18:05 - How Are You Using AI? 18:28 - The Bottom Line Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #AIBetting #ChatGPT #Claude #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #BettingStrategy #BettingTips #WorldCupBetting #RobPizzola #CirclesOff #TheHammer #SportsBettingAI #BettingModel #Gambling Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The FIFA World Cup is in absolute chaos after reports that Florian Balogun’s red card suspension was reversed ahead of USA vs Belgium following a high-profile intervention involving Donald Trump, sparking major backlash over corruption concerns, competitive integrity, and whether governing bodies are being influenced at the highest level. The crew also breaks down a separate controversy involving Spotify requesting removal of its branding from prediction-market-linked ranking manipulation allegations, raising fresh questions about how betting-adjacent markets could be impacting real-world platforms. On top of that, England’s dramatic 3–2 win over Mexico in one of the most chaotic matches of the tournament is being called an all-time World Cup classic. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and George Tsilfidis as the panel unpacks the biggest stories from across the World Cup and sports betting world, including the integrity concerns surrounding FIFA decisions, the intersection of markets and platform manipulation, and the fallout from a historic England-Mexico clash that has fans and analysts debating its place among the greatest matches ever played. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow George - https://x.com/georgetsilfidis 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg12 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, George Tsilfidis and Geoff Fienberg 1:46 - Donald Trump asks FIFA to allow Florian Balogun to play the USA's R16 match vs. Belgium 22:03 - More World Cup: England/Mexico, Canada loses, etc. 35:51 - Reaction to the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 44:58 - 2026 MLB All-Star selections controversies 51:05 - NHL offer sheet drama 59:12 - Spotify goes at prediction markets 1:05:09 - Charlie Sheen lost 18 bets in a row 1:15:38 - Reading your comments 1:25:10 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices